Update On Deportations -- Another Newsy Day -- April 8, 2025

Locator: 48445ARCHIVES.

Updates

April 10, 2025: A lot of illegal immigrants will try to ride this out. I don't think folks realize Trump has almost four more years in office.

Original Note

Texas politics: before we get to deportations, for the archives -- Texas AG Ken Paxton to challenge four-term US Senator John Cornyn in primary. 

Most transformational president since FDR? From March 28, 2025. News cycle never ends.

Out! DHS launches a new self-deportation app. 

I believe the full story is that this "new" app was announced about a month ago, but apparently the news today is that the "new" app has now launched. Approximately one million immigrants admitted under the "Obama immigration app"are now being told they need to self-deport. New rules in effect as of today. Probably more news, if more news is needed, explaining all this tomorrow.

Rulings: deportation rulings by US Supreme Court.

• now: Judge Boasberg abruptly cancels hearings; did not know he did not have jurisdiction!
• links everywhere; everyone will spin the story differently
  
• ends hopes of a US Supreme Court nomination, although unlikely anyway at his age

WTI Slumps To $57 -- April 8, 2025

Locator: 48444B.

Trade war:

• Trump to raise tariffs on China to 104% after China "misses deadline"
• my hunch: the pressure in on Xi, not Trump
• the risk: Xi makes a major military move
  

Coal: President Donald Trump signed executive orders to expand the mining and use of coal inside the US, a bid to 

• power the boom in energy-hungry data centers; and, revive a flagging US fossil fuel industry
• Trump wants to balance the trade imbalance by having the rest of the world buy our natural gas. 
• there won't be enough natural gas for both domestic use and foreign demand;
• with regard to natural gas, see this link from last week. 
  
• nuclear won't come around fast enough; and, solar is not 24-hour, meaning ... 
• we have to go to coal.

AI is an energy story, it comes down to this:

• solar
• natural gas
• coal
• nuclear

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $57.27

• as Trump slaps 104% tariffs on China; and,
• with news that Trump is on his way to the Mideast to ask for more oil production

Active rigs: 34.

Five new permits, #41782 - #41786, inclusive:

• Operators: Enerplus (3), Phoenix Operating, Murex
• Fields: Phaelens Butte (McKenzie); Big Stone (Williams); Elmore-Madison Unit (Renville)
• Comments:
  
• Enerplus has permits for three MHA wells -- Collie, Mastiff,and Heeler -- NENW 23-149-94,
• to be sited 200 - 266 FNL and 1386 FWL;
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Nystuen well, SWSE 20-159-98, 
• to be sited 1053 FSL and 1735 FEL;
• Murex has a permit for an Emu Ross well, lot 1, section 27-164-84; 
• to be sited 680 FNL and 550 FEL.

Large Data Center Buildout -- An Update -- RBN Energy -- April 8, 2025

Locator: 48443LDC.

RBN Energy: tech giants' big-money plans for data centers hinge on gas-fired power. Archived. Below is abbreviated summary.

Growing power demand for data centers has been one of the biggest stories in energy markets over the past year, with natural gas-fired power plants emerging as the primary choice for developers seeking to provide the 24/7 power these massive, energy-intensive sites require. That has led many energy firms to unveil plans to sell power directly to data centers but many tech giants have also announced their own deals. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll dive into recent announcements from firms like Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, which intend to collectively spend about $300 billion this year alone to boost their AI (artificial intelligence) capabilities.

Apple

Apple announced on February 25 that it will spend more than $500 billion...

NRG Energy, GE Vernova and Kiewit

NRG Energy and GE Vernova, along with The Industrial Company (TIC), a subsidiary of Kiewit Corp., announced a venture on February 26 that aims to advance four projects that will generate more than 5 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the PJM Interconnection, which serves all or part of 13 states plus the District of Columbia. No location was listed for where the plants would be constructed.

Meta and Entergy Louisiana

Meta announced in November 2024 that it will build a 4-million-square-foot data center (see Figure 2 below) — the company’s largest — at a 1,400-acre site in Richland Parish, LA. Entergy Louisiana, an investor-owned utility, or IOU, said that to support the project it will build three gas-fired combined-cycle plants with a combined capacity of 2,260 MW — two of them in Richland Parish — as well as other infrastructure, including new transmission lines and substations.

Energy Transfer and Cloudburst

Energy Transfer in February entered a 10-year agreement to provide up to 450,000 MMBtu/d (~450 MMcf/d) of firm natural gas supply to CloudBurst's Next-Gen Data Center campus near San Marcos, TX, which could start operations by Q3 2026. That’s enough gas to generate approximately 1,200 MW of behind-the-meter power, Energy Transfer executives said during the company’s Q4 earnings call. (The 1,200 MW may be a conservative number — in theory, it could generate even more).

Microsoft and WE Energies

Microsoft announced in February it is developing a $3.3 billion data center hub near Milwaukee, WI. Microsoft broke ground on the first plot of land last year and has approval for a 1,000-acre expansion. Bloomberg also reported that Microsoft intends to put the expansion on hold. Microsoft has acknowledged the need for flexibility in its data center plans but has not discussed specific projects. WE Energies, a Wisconsin IOU, has proposed a $2 billion investment in new natural gas infrastructure with more than 1 GW capacity to serve Microsoft’s AI operations. 

WE Energies wanted to start construction on a $300-million, 128-MW natural gas-powered facility in Paris, a town south of Milwaukee in Kenosha County, in Q1 2025, with construction to be completed by July 2026. However, there has been community pushback because the facility could emit more than 590,000 tons of CO₂ annually and the project does not include CCS capabilities. WE Energies said it is considering other locations.

Amazon and Entergy Mississippi

Amazon’s data center expansion in Mississippi has prompted Entergy Mississippi to begin construction on a $1.2 billion natural gas plant in Greenville, a town along the Mississippi River in Washington County.

Vantage and VoltaGrid Partnership

Hyperscale developer Vantage Data Centers will partner with onsite power generation supplier VoltaGrid to provide more than 1 GW of gas-fired microgrid power at new facilities across North America. Vantage is one of the leading providers of wholesale data center infrastructure and has accounted for building out or starting 35 campuses globally, with more than 2.6 GW in capacity.

Global Electricity Review -- 2024

Locator: 48442ENERGYGLOBAL.

Sixth Industrial Revolution (SIR) now has its own page. 

When reading this, put this in perspective:

• the sixth industrial revolution;
• what Trump sees;
• the LDC story is an energy story;
• the gap between the US and the EU continues to widen

Must-read. Archive. The full report is here and can be downloaded as a PDF: 118 pages.

The languages available, in this order:

• Turkish, Spanish, Japanese, Indonesian, Arabic, Portuguese, and Korean.

Global electricity review. Ember, link here. 

Electrek's version of the story.

Solar has doubled in just three years, providing more than 2,000 TWh of electricity in 2024. Wind generation also grew to 8.1% of global electricity, while hydro – the single largest renewable source – remained steady at 14% of global electricity.

“Solar power has become the engine of the global energy transition,” said Phil MacDonald, Ember’s managing director. “Paired with battery storage, solar is set to be an unstoppable force. As the fastest-growing and largest source of new electricity, it is critical in meeting the world’s ever-increasing demand for electricity.”

Folks may want to find out how much battery storage the US has. 

Chapter 1: 2024 in review -- record rise in renewables pushes clean power generation above 50% of global electricity --

Record renewables growth helped push clean power to a new milestone. However, heatwaves contributed to high growth in electricity demand, which resulted in a small increase in fossil generation.

But wow, one has to read it closely to see the Real Story! Actually two stories. And both stories buried.

The first story: global electricity demand grows at the third-highest level in the last decade. And that's before the LDCs start to come into play. 

The second story: the world's three largest power consumers -- China, India, and the US -- saw an increase in fossil generation in 2024, while the world's fourth largest, the EU saw a decline.

But, to repeat: the EU saw a decline.

Global Electricity Review -- 2024

Locator: 48441ENERGYGLOBAL.

Must-read. Archive. The full report is here and can be downloaded as a PDF: 118 pages.

The languages available, in this order:

• Turkish, Spanish, Japanese, Indonesian, Arabic, Portuguese, and Korean.

Global electricity review. Ember, link here.  

Chapter 1: 2024 in review -- record rise in renewables pushes clean power generation above 50% of global electricity --

Record renewables growth helped push clean power to a new milestone. However, heatwaves contributed to high growth in electricity demand, which resulted in a small increase in fossil generation.

But wow, one has to read it closely to see the Real Story! Actually two stories. And both stories buried.

The first story: global electricity demand grows at the third-highest level in the last decade. And that's before the LDCs start to come into play. 

The second story: the world's three largest power consumers -- China, India, and the US -- saw an increase in fossil generation in 2024, while the world's fourth largest, the EU saw a decline.

But, to repeat: the EU saw a decline.

WTI Barely Holding Above $60 -- April 8, 2025

Locator: 48440B.

US Supreme Court: backs Trump on fired federal workers.

Tariffs: the real story is about imbalance of payments.

• tariffs: the metric that will be followed -- balance of payments between the US and any one country.
  
• Quick! How are other countries negotiating with Trump to manage some of that imbalance in the short term. Again, Trump's economic plan has short term goals and long term goals. 

Huge stories: deportation rulings by US Supreme Court.

• now: Judge Boasberg abruptly cancels hearings; did not know he did not have jurisdiction!
• links everywhere; everyone will spin the story differently
  
• ends hopes of a US Supreme Court nomination, although unlikely anyway at his age

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.51.

New wells:

• Wednesday, April 9, 2025: 35 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 242 for the year,
• 40902, conf, CLR, Entzel 3-14H,
• 40153, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-3,
• 40152, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-2,
• 39039, conf, Grayson, Orville 4-9 3H,
• Tuesday, April 8, 2025: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 238 for the year,
• 40924, conf, CLR, Entzel 2-14HSL,
• 40913, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7A,

RBN Energy: Arrow Model forecasts shifts in gas flows, basis as new pipes, LNG capacity arrives. Archived.

The rapid growth in U.S. natural gas production and LNG exports over the past 10 years was just the beginning. Between now and 2035, gas production in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and other plays will continue rising, the Gulf Coast’s LNG export capacity will double and many new pipelines will be built. New gas-fired power plants will be added, too. The shifts in gas flows as new production and infrastructure come online will be frequent and often sudden, as will the changes in basis at gas hubs throughout Texas and Louisiana. Is there any way to make sense of it all? There sure is. In today’s RBN blog, we continue to explore how our Arrow Model helps guide the way. 

Few, if any, would argue with the view that the world is changing at a breakneck pace and that there are many “unknowable unknowns” out there. But this much seems clear: (1) the more than 8 billion people on this planet will need more energy; (2) natural gas is among the cleanest, most abundant forms of reliable, around-the-clock energy supply; and (3) the U.S. has super-abundant gas reserves and the means to export vast amounts of LNG to Asia, Europe and other major gas-consuming regions. The question is, how will the era of U.S. gas/LNG dominance unfold, particularly in Texas and Louisiana, the two states at the center of most of the action.

In Part 1, we summarized where things stand today regarding gas production, pipeline development and LNG export capacity in the Lone Star and Bayou states. The bottom line? Gas production is rising in the Permian and to a lesser degree is poised to do the same in the Eagle Ford and the Haynesville as new takeaway pipelines — and, just as important, new LNG export terminals — start up. We also discussed RBN’s Arrow Model — now available for purchase — which carves the region into gas-flow “corridors,” with the green arrows in Figure 1 below showing groups of pipes that serve similar markets from comparable supply sources, the red arrows showing gas exports to Mexico, and the light- and dark-blue arrows showing LNG exports.

RBN’s Arrow Model for Texas/Louisiana Gas Flows

Figure 1. RBN’s Arrow Model for Texas/Louisiana Gas Flows. Source: RBN’s Arrow Model

We covered how the Arrow Model (1) aggregates gas production, demand and net outflows or inflows for each market area over time; (2) quantifies the degree to which gas is pushed/pulled between and among hubs, again over time; (3) anticipates gas flows on each corridor (and the need for incremental pipeline capacity); and (4) forecasts the basis differentials that underlie and support the aforementioned flows of gas. We also noted that the model gives you access to a host of relevant historical data and forecasts for gas production, pipeline flows, supply, storage, demand, regional balances and basis — month-by-month for the period from January 2022 through December 2026 as well as annual data and forecasts for the period from 2022 through 2035. (For more on what you can get, click here.)