Ramblig Notes, Observations On Trump's Tariffs -- April 12, 2025

Locator: 48464TARIFFS.

Breaking news this morning: iPhone, laptops, computers will be exempt from Trump’s tariffs. Whoo-hoo! This, by the way, was telegraphed last week; can't remember if I posted that. But it was obvious it was coming.

Tariffs: see below.

US power consumption to hit record levels, this year (2025) and next (2026). Link here. Paywall. Will provide more information later.

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Tariffs

All things being equal, the US equity market could / should "explode"(on the good side) on Monday. There will be, of course, some relief selling but the general trend could be / should be "straight up." If that happens, again, the Fed (JPow) will look like a genius. 

Some observations:

• Trump used a sledgehammer with regard to tariffs; he will now use a surgical scalpel.
• he will target various countries / regions differently (my March Madness analogy)
• he will target sectors
• by region / country, tariffs now break out in two major ways
• China
• everyone else
• where we stand
• both China and the US have agreed that there is no utility in raising tariffs further;
• tariffs on EU, UK and Asia ex China have been paused for 90 days which gives everyone time to negotiate; the US holds the better poker hand, by far
• Canada becomes almost irrelevant in the big scheme of things
• the big "unknown" is Mexico (energy, autos)
• Mexico will have little affect on our stock market, but Mexico, the country, has many, many risks with regard to Trump
  
• it's possible, that the "tariff story" has run its course;
• if so, we're back to focusing on the sixth industrial revolution
• what will oil do? Absolutely no idea: predicting the price of WTI is a fool's errand -- that has never changed; and that leads us into the next discussion: US power consumption -- which will set new records in 2025 (this year) and 2026 (next year) 

In politics, 90 days is an eternity, suggesting to some / for some that the tariff story (for investors) has run its course. With Trump, the question now becomes, what next? I still think Israel / Iran is the story to watch.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.

I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.

Longer version here.       

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