Absolutely Predictable -- And It's Just The Beginning -- Just Wait Until Trucks Need To Be Electric --

Locator: 48271CALIFORNIA.

Link here.

I assume Pete Buttigieg is all over this.

From the linked article:

The Port of Los Angeles’s transition to green technology is on the blink.

The private companies that handle containers at the crucial seaport say power surges and lulls are knocking out cranes and other cargo equipment just as container terminals are relying more on the electric grid to power their operations.

The terminal operators are asking how the port expects to achieve a mandate to phase out diesel-powered machinery by 2030 when today’s power supply is so unreliable. Their frustrations highlight the gap in energy infrastructure that complicates moves toward zero-emission technologies even as companies invest big sums in the transition.

Thomas Jelenić, a vice president at the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, which represents the terminal operators, said so far this year there have been at least nine power-related outages that have affected one or more terminals.

Jelenić said the dips and surges in voltage can be brief but can cause ship-to-shore cranes to reset. “That’s a big deal because it stops the flow of cargo from the ship to the terminals,” he said.

Several executives said the power issues are knocking out not just cranes but also the automated gates that accept and deliver boxes to trucks and the computer systems that manage the location of containers. The terminal operators must then recalibrate machinery and sometimes replace fried circuit cards before they can resume operations.

Another One Taken Out -- It Looks Like Israel Is Getting Serious -- Taken Out At An Inauguration Ceremony IN TEHRAN! -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48270ISRAEL.

Updates

Original Post

It looks like Israel is getting serious.

Rumors: bullets grazed Iran's new president's right ear. Apparently sniper on top of mosque rooftop not seen. Iranian counter-snipers not trained to fire from slanted roofs. Inshallah.

A CLR Cuskelly Well -- A DUC Is Reported As Completed -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48269B.

The CLR Cuskelly / Thorvald wells are tracked here.

From today's daily activity report:

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 29708, 2,440, CLR, Cuskelly FIU 8-7HSL, Jim Creek (sited in Rattlesnake Point), Dunn County

The map:

From the NDIC website:

• Cuskelly 5-7H2, Three Forks, September 2, 2014
• Gas capture plan, July 5, 2015
• Cuskelly 3-7H1
• Cuskelly 4-7H
• Cuskelly 5-7H2
• Permit: Cuskelly 5-7H2, Three Forks B2, date approved, October 15, 2014
• Sundry form: Cuskelly 5-7H (perhaps typographical error, but used multiple times), December 11, 2014
• Sundry form received December 15, 2014: request to change formation and name to Cuskelley 5-7H (middle Bakken)
• October 10, 2017: planning form, Cuskelly 5-7H2 (again)
• Sundry form, October 11, 2017: request to change name back to Cuskelly 5-7H2
• Sundry form, October 2, 2019: request to cancel permits for Cuskelly 5-7H2
• Sundry form: name changed from Cuskelly 9-7H1 to the Cuskelly 8-7HSL, and from a Three Forks well to a middle Bakken well; August 31, 2023

The scout tickets:

Question Of The Day -- US Debt -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48268US.

The US, for the first time, reaches $35 trillion in debt.

Story buried on business pages if reported at all.

Not talked about on CNBC.

Why not? Why is "nobody" talking about the US debt? Why does no one seem worried about US debt? 

Question of the day.

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Corollary

Is US spending "doing anything" for quality of life? Since 1951?

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Maybe This Is Where We Need To Start

And then there's the "brand name." Certainly the "US brand" is worth a few trillion dollars. One wonders if the total worth of the United States includes the dozen or so old Apple computers stored in the garage and never used any more. Certainly they have some resale value. No?

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US GDPNow

Link here.

July 26, 2024: 2.8% estimate for 3Q24.

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Comment

Maybe these are two questions that can be discussed some day.

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How Good We Have It

This is "the club" in Southlake, TX.

This is where Sophia is going this week for her chess camp.

Link here.

If This Is Verified, So Many Story Lines -- Makes Me Sick -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48267IDF.

WTI Drops Below $75 -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48266B.

Market: unless you've been adding to your technology position in the past six months, today's market action is absolutely awesome. What a huge buying opportunity. Things are starting to shake out. Things are starting to make sense.  

Most surprising: BRK-B. 

Copper: one of the most interesting stories right now?

Lessons learned: "we're" in the process of providing a "personal financial planning" for the two older granddaughters. Big, big change: no longer do I call it "retirement planning." I call it "financial independence (by age 57)."

Lessons learned: everyday I "study/review" math, vocabulary, and a multitude of other subjects with Sophia, age 10, going into fifth grade. My lessons learned:

• vocabulary: important, important, important -- we will move through the fifth grade workbook quickly and begin the sixth grade workbook within the next month or so;
• math: word problems. Sophia has to set up the word problems on her own. The current word problems are multiplying 3-digit and 4-digit numbers. She knows how to multiply 3-digit and 4-digit numbers. Now, it's just busy work. In the future, she won't be multiplying large figures by hand. She will use her mobile device. More importantly, she needs to set up the problems and move on. If she needs a multiple-guess answer, rounding / estimations will generally work.
• writing: she keeps a journal; no ChatGPT
  
• conversions: time (seconds, minutes, hours, days, months, years); baking (teaspoons, cups); commodities (gallons, barrels); distance / time; etc.
  
• 15-minute binder with dozens of subjects; more on this later.

AMD: one word. Wow! Folks might remember my thoughts on AMD about a year ago. Relative to Nvidia. After the earnings call, after-hours, AMD is up over $9 / share.

Intel:

Intel: this happened in the first month of the third quarter; damage will continue through the second month of the third quarter; we will see results 3Q24 and perhaps 4Q24 and perhaps full year 2024. This has the potential of being a bigger story than the CrowdStrike / Microsoft story. CrowdStrike after recovering a bit from the debacle, fell $25 today! Wow! Cathie Wood bought a huge position in CrowdStrike the day after the original sell off, immediately after the debacle. It looked like a great bet. It looks like she could have waited.

So, who makes chips that directly compete with Intel? AMD was one of the few tech companies that did well today after reporting earnings.

Nvidia: the "pain" has not quit. The stock price will continue to fall. -- Cramer. But Cramer has an interesting take on this. I agree.  NVDA is up 121% from one full year.

Texas oil, a nice problem to have. Link here. In fifty years of following the oil industry, I've never seen this headline in this context. Wow.

In our backyard: The Thirsty Lion is our favorite restaurant -- but we seldom go any more. Eating out has simply become way too expensive. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.73.

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #40978 - #40982, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Sorkness (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for five EN-Starla permits, SESW 9-157-93; 
• to be sited between 594 FWL and 571 FSL and between 2028 FWL and 2192 FWL;
• these four EN-Starla permits will be added to the existing EN-Starla well already on the pad
• 40399, conf/loc, Hess, EN-Starla-157-93-0904H-4, Sorkness, t--; cum --;
  

Four permits canceled:

• Whiting: two permits in McKenzie County; two in Mountrail County; remember: Whiting is now part of Chord (Oasis - Whiting -Enerplus): permits for Wold, Green, Jeffery, Gayne.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 29708, 2,440, CLR, Cuskelly FIU 8-7HSL, Dunn County

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Disclaimer Briefly
Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

NOG: 2Q24 Earnings And Guidance -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48265NOG.

NOG, link here:

The ticker:

 

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Decorated By Sophia

 Good luck to all.

Wisconsin's Occupied Bald Eagle Nests -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48267EAGLES.

Tag: Lesbos, Sappho

Wisconsin's occupied bald eagle nests in 1974 and 2019. Absolutely amazing. Link here.

Meanwhile, we're still seeing a lot of Swainson's hawks overhead in the DFW area. See this post from 2020. 

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The Book Page

Link here.

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Wind Power

Link here.

Tesla And Regulatory Credits -- Re-Posting -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48266TESLA.

How regulatory credits work -- CNBC -- May 18, 2021. NOTE THE DATE!

Cornering the market: one of the talking heads mentioned in passing that Ford was complaining that Tesla was cornering the market on EV regulatory credits.

EV woes: link here.

Time to get back to this story: link here, July 24, 2024. One of two under-reported stories for Tesla, carbon credits, regulatory credits, income from other auto manufacturers:

Links, blog only:

• April 29, 2021.
• April 28, 2021.
• April 26, 2021.
• September 8, 2020.
• July 23, 202.
• February 10, 2013.

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Reuters

Link here.

Buried in that article, perhaps the most important data point of which folks are not paying attention:

Regulatory credits -- income:

• CY2023: a record, $1.79 billion
• 2Q24: a record, $890 million; annualized 4 x 0.890 billion = $3.56 billion

Where's that money coming from: Ford, GM, Stellantis, others.

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Other Media Links

This whole story reminds me of the business models of car rental companies like Hertz.

Teslarati, February 9, 2024:

Tesla’s 2023 regulatory credits generated an additional $1.79 billion in revenue, according to its 10-K filed last week.

The money Tesla makes due to other carmakers needing assistance to reach emissions standards continues to accumulate, and since 2009, it has made almost $9 billion in revenue because of the system.

Bloomberg reported this morning that Tesla’s $9 billion in revenue due to the sale of regulatory credits has helped the company obtain what is basically pure profit. Former Tesla Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Zachary Kirkhorn, who left the company last year, said the credits would eventually go away as other automakers caught up to emissions standards.

However, that was in 2020. Tesla has brought in over $1.7 billion in credits in both 2022 and 2023, while 2020’s total was $1.58 billion.

Although many large automakers have pledged to transition to EVs, it has been a much more difficult road than initially imagined.

Volkswagen and General Motors are two companies mentioned in the report that have had trouble reaching EV goals and have, in turn, needed help meeting emissions standards.

GlobalFleet, March 27, 2024:

One year after the release of its first electric vehicle (EV), the Roadster, Tesla began selling carbon credits to various automakers. While Tesla enjoyed high profits as the pioneer of all-electric passenger cars, the balance in the carbon credit market is about to change. Tesla is no longer the top all-electric producer, and major automakers are changing their strategy from just buying time to updating their zero-emission strategies.

Selling carbon credits has always been a lucrative business for Tesla. In Q4 2020, according to CNBC, Tesla generated $270 million in net income by selling $401 million in regulatory credits. In Q1 2021, Tesla generated $518 million from selling regulatory credits.

Profits continued to grow. According to Tesla's financial reports, revenue generated from carbon credits was $1.46 billion as of the fiscal year 2021, representing 3% of the brand's total revenue. Revenue peaked in 2023, hitting $1.79 billion, according to the brand's Q4 2023 report. Tesla has generated $9 billion from selling carbon credits to other electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers since 2009.

We shall look at the figures from Q3 2023 to note how profitable selling carbon credits is. That quarter, Tesla generated $554 million from selling carbon credits, representing 29% of the company's net income. Notably, carbon credit revenue jumped 94% in that quarter, year-on-year. 

CarbonCredits, February 13, 2024:

Elon Musk’s Tesla generated a substantial $1.79 billion from carbon credit sales last year, as revealed in their Q4 2023 and annual financial report, bringing its total earnings from such credits since 2009 to nearly $9 billion. This revenue comes from trading regulatory credits to other automakers unable to meet emission regulations in the US, Europe, and China. 

Tesla continues to profit from the need of its rivals to meet emissions standards. It is a lucrative business that was initially expected to diminish. Since the EV giant incurs minimal additional costs to earn these credits, the sales represent almost pure profit.

Ticker: Tesla has become a stock for traders, not necessarily investors:

Oasis Olson Wells

Locator: 48264B.

The wells:

• 40767, conf/drl/ros, Oasis, Olson State Federal 5399 41-9 5B, Crazy Man Creek,
• 40766, conf/drl, Oasis, Olson State Federal 5399 41-9 2B, Crazy Man Creek,
• 40763, conf/drl, Oasis, Olson State Federal 5399 41-9 3B, Crazy Man Creek,
• 40633, conf/drl, Oasis, Olson State Federal 5399 41-9 4B, Crazy Man Creek,
• 20120, conf/drl, Oasis, Olson State 11X-16, Crazy Man Creek, t12/11; cum 288K 5/24; an incredibly mediocre well; will be interesting to see what newer wells do in this same spacing unit.

The maps:

 

WTI Continues To Drop As US Driving Season Starts To Wane, China Demand Falls -- July 30, 2024

Locator: 48263B.

WTI: 475.22.

Wednesday, July 31, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 382 for the year
40412, conf, CLR, Anheluk 5-26HSL,
40176, conf, Slawson, Cyclone 5-21-16H,
40086, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jean Ferrari 26-35-2 1H,
39514, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley E 158-93-29-32-4MBH,

Tuesday, July30, 2024: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 378 for the year
40413, conf, CLR, Hellickson Paluck 2-25H,
40087, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jean Ferrari 26-35-2-2H,
39515, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley E 158-93-29-32-5MBH, 

RBN Energy: refiners increasingly relying on hydrocracking capacity as fuel demand shifts.

More than a decade ago, several U.S. refiners brought new hydrocracking capacity online, wagering that rising demand for middle distillates made such major investments necessary. They were good bets. Demand for jet fuel is expected to continue to grow, and while diesel demand is seen as relatively flat in the U.S. over the next few years, it will continue to climb globally through 2045, according to RBN’s recently released Future of Fuels report. In contrast, the report also sees domestic gasoline demand declines accelerating post-2026 and peaking globally by about 2030, as more consumers turn to electric vehicles (EVs). These contrasting trajectories for middle distillates vs. gasoline will put a growing premium on distillate-centric hydrocracking capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine trends incentivizing hydrocracking capacity and how these units will allow U.S. refiners to maintain their competitiveness in a rapidly changing product market.