A Little Comedic Relief -- WTI Just Went Over $87 Again -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

"One State's Trash Is Another State's Treasure" -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

Whiting With One New Permit; Four Permits Renewed; $87-WTI -- January 19, 2022

Active rigs: NDIC list 30 active rigs; one is a SWD rig; one rig is listed twice:

$86.96	1/19/2022	01/19/2021	01/19/2020	01/19/2019	01/19/2018
Active Rigs	28	12	56	68	58

One new permit, #38741:

• 38741, loc, Whiting, Joanna TTT 11-6H, to be sited in Sanish oil field, lot 4 section 6-153-91; 532 FNL and 752 FWL

Four permits renewed:

• CLR: fous Chloe permits in Williams County;

MRO Charchenko Wells In Murphy Creek

The wells:

• 36196, PA, MRO, Raleigh 44-20H, Murphy Creek,
• 36197, AL/A, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 155K 11/21;
• 36198, AL/A, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
• 36617, AL/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 159K 11/21;

To the east, drilled in 2009 and had a huge jump in production, in mid-2017;

• 17449, 128, MRO, Charchenko 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 262K 11/21; huge jump in production, 8/17 - 9/17;

Farther east: this second generation daughter well drilled four years after the parent well; and has produced just as much as the parent well; something that "we've" been told isn't supposed to happen:

• 25256, 1,398, MRO, Michael Charchenko 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t8/13; cum 254K 11/21; small halo effect summer of 2017;

Farthest east, in same section:

• 17599, 307, MRO, Charchenko 34-21H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 156K 11/21; small halo effect summer of 2017; nice halo effect in autumn of 2014;

So, there you have it. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me:

• three generations of wells: two parent wells; one daughter well; and three granddaughter wells:
• the second generation wells showed a halo effect; and will be better than the parent wells, something we're told doesn't happen; and,
• three granddaughter wells (there would have been four, but one was canceled, at least for now) and they will be better than the previous two generations: and, on top of all that,
• lots of room for more wells.

***********************************
Corky Hosted A Wine Tasting Earlier Today

Corky invited her out-of-town relatives.

Wine tasting with Corky's family and friends:

Agree 1000% With BofA --Tesla -- January 19, 2022

I didn't read the article. just saw the headline.

From ZeroHedge: Tesla's market share will collapse "in next few years."

I wonder if the article mentions these two things:

• Tesla just pushed back its biggest money-maker: the CyberTruck, ceding first mover advantage to Ford; and,
• no style changes in any of the Tesla models since originally launched; this didn't hurt Saab ... except Saab no longer makes cars.

SAAB Automobile initially went bankrupt in 2011 and, after a brief period under another company, stopped producing cars under the Saab name in 2014. Therefore, no, Saab is no longer making cars. ... SAAB is a Swedish company that began in aerospace and defense in the 1930s. -- Source.

The "best" two cars we ever owned were Saabs; owned them at the same time, a "his" and "hers." Both cars served us well while overseas. We left them in Europe in perfect condition. Gave the first one away when we left Germany, on our way to Turkey, and then gave the other one away when we departed Turkey. I remember well giving the first one away; don't recall who got the second car. Would have been left at Incirlik Air Base, Turkey. They were built to European specs and would not have passed US specs. US manufacturers protect(ed) their turf.

The Incredible XTO Johnson Trust Wells; A Closer Look At An XTO Well That Came Off Confidential List Two Years Ago -- January 19, 2022

Three Johnson Federal Trust wells, DUCs reported as completed here, results posted here.

The well:

• 35047, drl,-->drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, 33-053-08573, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 60K 11/21; cum 141K 1/22;
  

• FracFocus: fracked 8/30/21 - 9/11/21; 8.76 million gallons of water; a typical/moderate frack for the Bakken; 88.77% water by mass;
  

Full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	29	59918	59089	36179	138214	137929	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	182	0	4443	966	0	966

Three wells of interest, east to west, nearest to farthest from #35047:

• 17439, remains off line following recent #35047 frack; back on line 12/21; no huge jump in production, t11/08; cum 206K 1/22;
  
• 27203, huge jump in production after #35047 fracked; back on line 10/21; nice jump in production; cum 339K 1/22;
  
• 27204, never came off line while #35047 was fracked; back on line 2/21; cum 342K 1/22;
  

Graphics:

The XTO Johnson Trust wells:

• 35044, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6AXD, Siverston, t--; cum 176K 1/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	58598	58587	25062	148093	142838	4938
BAKKEN	10-2021	26	60387	60364	29909	138362	138067	26
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	1027	0	2953	2554	0	2554

• 35045, PNC, ...21X-6A, Siverston;
• 35046, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, Siverston, t--; cum 159K 1/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	46634	46725	32212	104142	100138	3872
BAKKEN	10-2021	25	61400	61356	44520	126254	123672	2452
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	726	0	7144	3242	0	3242

• 35047, see above, 
• 35048, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston,  minimal production, 9/21; no more as of 11/21; back on line 12/21; cum 89K 1/22;
  
• 35049, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, t--; cum 220K 1/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	65724	65576	32768	149405	143660	5555
BAKKEN	10-2021	26	64502	64735	38722	141645	138749	2751
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	1042	0	4170	3077	0	3077

• 35050, PNC, ...21X-6G, Siverston;
  

Updating The Last Few Wells That Reported No Production When They Came Off Confidential List Two Years Ago, 1Q20

Note: in a long note like this, there will be many content and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Earlier this week I went back and updated every well that came off the confidential list in 4Q21 -- one quarter ago. I noted that except for a handful of Slawson wells all wells that came off confidential list in 4Q21 were drilled to depth, completed, and showing some production. 

Now, let's go back and clean up 1Q20, two years ago. Some time ago I updated that list and found a lot of DUCs.

Let's update those DUCs. When I went back and looked at those wells off confidential list 1Q20, two years ago, the following were were still DUCs or in "drl" status, or no production data provided:

• 36626, SI/NC, XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
• 35851, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19E, Heart Butte,
• 35850, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19B, Heart Butte, 
• 35852, drl, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte,
• 35854, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19B, 
  
• 35853, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19F, 
• 35047, drl, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, 
• 35856, drl, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte, 
• 35049, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,  
• 36424, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa,  
• 35048, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F,
• 36425, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, 
• 36665, SI/NC, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, 25K over 23 days;
• 34951, drl/A, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal, minimal production;
• 34954, drl, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal,
• 34953, drl, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal, 
• 36427, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, 
• 36426, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, 
• 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note;  
• 36617, conf, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20;
• 36198, conf, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; 
• 36564, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
• 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,  
• 33424, drl,  Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, no production data
• 36793, drl, Sinclair Oil, Harris Federal 2-32H, Lone Butte, t--; cum --;
• 35424, SI/NC, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, 33-061-04288, Reunion Bay, t--; cum --;
• 34392, drl, White Butte Oil, Jore Federal 5-12H, Clark Creek, t--; cum --;
• 32461, drl, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, no production data;  
• 34851, SI/NC, CLR, Pittsburg 8-18H, 33-053-08510Banks, t--; cum --; fracked 6/3/19 - 6/21/19; 11.1 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.059;
• 36943, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek;
• 36942, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek;
• 34377, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH,
• 33806, SI/NC, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --; 
• 34378, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek,
• 34373, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek,
• 31794, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson,  
• 36944, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek,  
• 34375, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek,
• 34395, drl (2/21), White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek, 
• 36308, drl/IA, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole:  

I may have missed a few but I posted at least initial production from the rest of the wells that came off confidential list 1Q20.

So, now, let's see if any of the above wells have reported at last some production:

• 36626, SI/NC-->drl/NCW, , XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
• 35851, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19E, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• 35850, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, , XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19B, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• 35852, drl-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• 35854, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19B, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• 35853, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19F, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• ****35047, drl,-->drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 60K 11/21;
  
• 35856, drl-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• ***35049, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, no change in well status but huge production; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 131K 11/21;
  
• 36424, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
• 35048, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, status of well unchanged, although minimal production 9/21; none after that;
  
• 36425, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
• 36665, SI/NC-->AL/A, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, 25K over 23 days; first production, 11/19; t--; cum 126K 11/21;
  
• 34951, drl/A-->AL/A, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal, minimal production; first production, 11/19; t--; cum 70K 11/21;
  
• 34954, drl-->AL/A, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal, A Madison well, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 56K 11/21;
  
• 34953, drl-->255, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal, a Madison well, t1/20; cum 92K 11/21;
  
• 36427, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
• 36426, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  
• 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note;  
• ***36617, conf-->AL/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; first production, 8/19; t--; cum 159K 11/21;
  
• ***36198, conf-->AL/A, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; first production, 8/19; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
  
• 36564, drl-->286, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t1/20; cum 210K 11/21;
  
• 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,  
• ***33424, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, first productioni, 11/21; t--; cum 27K 11/21;
  
• 36793, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Harris Federal 2-32H, Lone Butte, t--; cum --; still no production data provided as of 11/21;
  
• ***35424, SI/NC-->5,455, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, 33-061-04288, Reunion Bay, t1/20; cum 410K 11/21;
  
• 34392, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil, Jore Federal 5-12H, Clark Creek, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 94K 11/21;
  
• 32461, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 32K 11/21;
  
• ***34851, SI/NC-->SI/A, CLR, Pittsburg 8-18H, 33-053-08510; Banks, first production, 1/20; ***t--; cum --; fracked 6/3/19 - 6/21/19; 11.1 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.059; cum 246K 11/21;
  
• **36943, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 184K 11/21;
  
• ***36942, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 210K 11/21;
  
• 34377, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 55K 11/21;
  
• 33806, SI/NC-->SI/A, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 190K 11/21;
  
• 34378, drl-->drl/A, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 76K 11/21;
  
• 34373, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 61K 11/21;
  
• 31794, drl-->F/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson,  first production, 10/20; t--; cum 219K 11/21;
  
• 36944, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 163K 11/21;
  
• 34375, drl-->drl/A, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 61K 11/21;
  
• 34395, drl (2/21)-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek,  first production, 7/21; t--; cum 38K 11/21;
  
• 36308, drl/IA-->PA, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole: 

I think some interesting observations can be made. 

How Bad Is It? BuzzFeed Just Collapsed -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

Crude Oil Futures Expiration Dates -- Current Contracts Expire Tomorrow -- Volatility Noted -- Pushing Toward $88 WTI -- January 19, 2022

Link here. Futures.

Symbols:

• CLG22
• C: crude oil
• L: light crude
• G: February
• 22: year (2022)
  
• Months:
• January: F
• February: G
• March: H
• April: J
• May: K
• Jun: M
• Jul: N
• Aug: Q
• Sep: U
• Oct: V
• Nov: X
• Dec: Z

Bakken DUCs -- January, 2022

Raw data provided by a reader. Transferring the reader's data to my spreadsheet could have resulted in errors, but it appears correct as received.

My narrative has not changed: in the Bakken, rig counts don't matter (don't take that out of context); frack spreads do. However, across all shale plays, analysts now suggest the tide has turned and rigs are not keeping up with fracking activity as seen by decline in the number of DUCs. I linked an incredibly good analysis yesterday on this very issue, especially why DUCs are particularly important. 

	Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	570
Jan-14	178	143	605
Feb-14	210	158	657
Mar-14	224	218	663
Apr-14	217	207	673
May-14	226	208	691
Jun-14	236	225	702
Jul-14	250	243	709
Aug-14	226	207	728
Sep-14	256	232	752
Oct-14	186	243	695
Nov-14	209	202	702
Dec-14	224	194	732
Jan-17	62	52	781
Feb-17	51	58	774
Mar-17	78	71	781
Apr-17	78	104	755
May-17	94	82	767
Jun-17	76	105	738
Jul-17	95	103	730
Aug-17	99	110	719
Sep-17	98	97	720
Oct-17	104	110	714
Nov-17	93	86	721
Dec-17	77	65	733
Jan-18	107	72	768
Feb-18	74	74	768
Mar-18	95	90	773
Apr-18	109	110	772
May-18	124	131	765
Jun-18	108	118	755
Jul-18	134	155	734
Aug-18	108	138	704
Sep-18	108	122	690
Oct-18	120	118	692
Nov-18	110	99	703
Dec-18	108	70	741
Jan-19	120	71	790
Feb-19	108	56	842
Mar-19	111	110	843
Apr-19	118	112	849
May-19	127	127	849
Jun-19	118	149	818
Jul-19	122	122	818
Aug-19	122	144	796
Sep-19	110	88	818
Oct-19	116	108	826
Nov-19	96	88	834
Dec-19	94	86	842
Jan-20	99	98	843
Feb-20	94	100	837
Mar-20	94	108	823
Apr-20	69	33	859
May-20	33	14	878
Jun-20	18	11	885
Jul-20	18	22	881
Aug-20	19	27	873
Sep-20	18	51	840
Oct-20	19	41	818
Nov-20	20	31	807
Dec-20	20	50	777
Jan-21	20	42	755
Feb-21	19	26	748
Mar-21	25	47	726
Apr-21	27	52	701
May-21	29	68	662
Jun-21	31	65	628
Jul-21	32	62	598
Aug-21	39	66	571
Sep-21	41	68	544
Oct-21	42	71	515
Nov-21	43	73	485
Dec-21	46	73	458