Investing Going Into A Short Week -- January 16, 2023

Hey, how about them Cowboys? 

Covid, China, and net zero: so why did China abruptly pivot with regard to their net-zero Covid-19 policy. This got their attention:

From the linked article:

China’s economy grew at one of its slowest rates in decades last year as repeated lockdowns hammered households and businesses, emphasizing the high cost of zero-tolerance Covid-19 policies that Beijing abruptly abandoned at the end of 2022.

China’s economy expanded 3% in 2022, a sharp slowdown from the 8.1% pace recorded in 2021.

Aside from 2020, when the economy grew only 2.2%, last year marked the worst year for gross domestic product growth in China since 1976, the year that Mao Zedong’s death ended the decade of strife known as the Cultural Revolution.

The ditching of almost all public-health restrictions in China after nearly three years of smothering even tiny virus outbreaks sets the stage for an economic rebound in 2023.

Economists expect a consumer-led recovery in China this year to buttress global growth as the U.S. and Europe flirt with recession.

For full-year 2022 for the US, real GDP could come in at 2.0%. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.    

If 2023 turns out to be a good year for investors, for some ideas on the NASDAQ, click here. Let's see if I can name them from memory: MSFT, NVDA, ZS, AMZN, and AAPL. Let's see what they were and in the order shown:

1. MSFT: one of the safest and one of the best
2. AAPL: with AAPL down 25% from its all-time high, this is a rare opportunity ...
3. Zscaler: having had a really rough couple of years, the company posted the fastest rate of growth in FY 2022 since the company went public in 2018, even in the face of a weak economy. Unaware of announced worker layoffs.
4. NVDA: three core competencies -- gaming; AI, and its Drive platform. The latter: has been adopted by at least 35 of the world's largest car manufacturers. Drive is an end-to-end hardware and software solution for fully autonomous self-driving capabilities.
5. AMZN: the word "trillion" appears  a couple of times at the linked article with regard to AMZN.

I have a rolling 30-year horizon with regard to investing. Over the long weekend, this popped up in my social media feed:

Big Stories Going Into The New Week -- January 16, 2023

Davos: except for this one time, I have no plans to mention Davos again this week. 

Natural gas: my brother-in-law called me earlier today to tell me that their natural gas prices are surging in California. Their most recent monthly statement was three times what they usually pay. This was predicted back in December, 2022. 

ISO NE: well, this is strange. After a long period of "reasonable prices,” all of a sudden ISO NE spikes despite relatively low demand. Link here. Prices are slightly higher on Long Island (ISO NY) but nothing close to what's going on in NE tonight.

***************************
First Big Story of the New Week

China's population.

Peter Zeihan discussed this in his The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning, published June 14, 2022. 

Link here.

From CNBC: 

This has been a frequent topic on the blog. For example, see this post.

Back To Offshore Drilling In The Mideast? Picking Up Where We Left Off? January 16, 2023

See this post from April 7, 2013, for background to this update. 

Within that post, this from April 7, 2013: 

April 7, 2013: This Bloomberg article may explain a bit more for the reason behind Saudi's increase in number of active rigs. Note the date of the article (January 23, 2013):

Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is set to boost its use of drilling rigs to a record this year as it pushes exploration for oil and shale gas into the Red Sea, a local energy analyst said.

Saudi Aramco, as the world’s largest crude exporter is known, will probably use about 163 rigs this year, up from 133 at the end of 2012, said Sadad al-Husseini, who founded Husseini Energy, an independent energy consultant in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, after retiring from the state producer in 2004.

Aramco was using 98 rigs to produce oil and gas from onshore fields and perform maintenance on existing wells at the end of last year, with a further 35 employed in exploration activity and offshore operations, al-Husseini said. This year, the company may use as many as 170 rigs in total should the country step up production of oil or gas, thus activating more rigs, he said.

Schlumberger Ltd., the world’s largest oilfield-services provider, also expects a gain in Saudi drilling activity. Saudi Aramco ended 2012 with 134 rigs and that number will grow to 160 rigs by the end of this year, Schlumberger Chief Executive Officer Paal Kibsgaard told analysts and investors on Jan. 18 in a conference call.

Now, an update. What's happening in 2023?

Social media link here. 

Direct to source.

It's very interesting. 

Oil demand, in 2013, was projected to rise, and it did, but then something happened. Covid and the great global lock down. So an interruption.

Now, gradually getting back to normal, and that projected crude oil demand will continue where it left off. Of course, the numbers will be different, and the baseline will start from a different point, but might "2023" be the new "2013"? 

The graphic above (and the linked story) suggest that's what Saudi Arabia is thinking. 

What little I know suggests Schlumberger (SLB) should benefit. 

Disclaimer: All my posts are done quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Long notes like these are particularly prone to having errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. I'm less interested in individual well production as I am in understanding the Bakken.  

Return Of Winter? Jannuary 16, 2023

For the past several weeks, this person has been forecasting a return to severe winter weather over the entire northern hemisphere.  

Now this, ZeroHedge via oilprice:

Norway — January 16, 2023

Norway: replaces Russia as Europe's number one supplier of natural gas. 

Can You Believe This Was Posted In 2013? Ten Years Ago. Truly, For Investors, An Open Book Test -- And Opportunity -- January 16, 2023

Best Weekly Summary Of US Fossil Fuel Energy -- Focus On Fracking -- January 16, 2023

Disclaimer: All my posts are done quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Long notes like these are particularly prone to having errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. I'm less interested in individual well production as I am in understanding the Bakken. 

This week's "issue."

I'm going to post some of the best from that very, very long update.

Commercial supplies of crude oil in storage (with these data points, gasoline at the pump should be well below $1.99 / gallon). From the linked update, last week:

• crude oil supplies rose for the tenth time in twenty-two weeks;
• crude oil supplies rose by the most since February, 2021; that's two years ago -- is anyone paying attention?
• look at this: in general, supplies rise and fall about four million bbls / week;
• this last week? supplies rose almost 20 million bbls -- almost 20 million bbls;
• that was on top of 1.7 million bbls the week before;

And then look at this, it's a long paragraph but it's amazing -- is anyone paying attention?

• commercial crude oil inventories rose to around 4% above the most recent five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, and
  
• were more than 33% above the average of our crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories first topped 400 million barrels.
  
• And after our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, and then jumped again after February 2021's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, our commercial crude supplies as of this January 6th were 6.4% more than the 413,298,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on January 7th of 2022, but 8.8% less than the 482,211,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on January 8th of 2021, and 2.0% more than the 431,060,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on January 3rd of 2020
  
• Finally, with our inventories of crude oil and our supplies of all products made from oil near multi-year lows over the most recent months, we are also continuing to watch the total of all U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including those in the SPR
  
• After the commercial crude and gasoline inventory increases we've already noted for this week, the total of our oil and oil product inventories, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and those held by the oil industry, and thus including everything from gasoline and jet fuel to propane/propylene and residual fuel oil, rose by 21,602,000 barrels this week barrels this week,

And this is at a time when SPR releases are decreasing, and US operators are cutting back on CAPEX, rigs, and production in favor of returning more cash to their investors.

And the writer doesn't even mention the word "recession." 

For this discussion, I don't care about investing, and I don't care about the politics, but the fact is the US is the global leader in energy. Period dot.  And as #1, the US is far and away well ahead of whomever is #2. 

Whomever is #2. LOL. There used to be a discussion: Russia vs Saudia Arabia. Who is #2. Well, that discussion is over. 

Norway: replaces Russia as Europe's number one supplier of natural gas. 

Now, next item. Touched on it earlier. Rigs. Is anyone paying attention?

• The number of drilling rigs active in the US increased for the 13th time over the prior 24 weeks during the week ending January 14th and for the 94th time in 120 weeks and/but is still only 2.3% below the prepandemic level
  
• Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs drilling in the US rose by 3 to 775 rigs over the past week, which was also 174 more rigs than the 601 rigs that were in use as of the January 7th report of 2022, but was 1,154 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1,929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, a week before OPEC began to flood the global market with oil in an attempt to put US shale out of business.

Wow, I'm glad someone remembers OPEC's "trillion-dollar mistake." No one else does.

"Miscellaneous rigs": this is new --

• Other than those rigs targeting oil and natural gas, Baker Hughes reports that two "miscellaneous" rigs continued drilling this week
  
• one of those was a directional rig drilling to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet on the big island of Hawaii,
  
• while the other was a directional rig drilling to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet into a formation in Lake county California that Baker Hughes doesn't track
  
• While we haven't seen any details on either of those wells, in the past we've identified various "miscellaneous" rig activity as being for exploration, for carbon dioxide storage, and for utility scale geothermal projects
  
• a year ago, there were were no such "miscellaneous" rigs running...

Is there any question the gulf coast is the US off-shore federal energy policy?

• since there aren't any rigs drilling off our other coasts, the Gulf rig count equals the national offshore count.
• one wonders if anyone else caught that bit of cocktail trivia 
• the rigs may be in federal fields, but the production is all handled by Texas and Louisiana commercial operators. Whoo-hoo!

So much more at that link. But it just dawned on me --- in the old days I would balance my checkbook at the end of each month, comparing it against the monthly bank statement -- my checkbook register never agreed with the bank statement. After hours of work I might have been able to find the discrepancy but it wasn't worth the effort, so now I simply "reconcile" the data points by adding / subtracting whatever it takes. 

Likewise, the EIA notes a disparity between the apparent supply of oil and thee apparent disposition of it, but instead of trying to find the reason, the EIA simply inserts a "fudge factor" to reconcile the disparity, The fudge factor, in round numbers, runs about one million bopd.

Be sure to read what the state of Ohio is proposing. It will drive Greta nuts.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 16, 2023

The wells:

• 39048, conf, CLR, Kelling 8-4H, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 39000, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-5, Alexandria,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	4087	400

• 38867, conf, Prima Exploration, Yogi Bear State 3H, Alexandria, no production data, 
• 34525, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 7-14-18H, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 38999, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-3, Alexandria,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	4782	2631

• 38889, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2918-3BH, Fertile Valley,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	14307	862
10-2022	16730	0
9-2022	15425	0
8-2022	9130	1

• 38888, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 2918-4BH, Fertile Valley,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	15692	1135
10-2022	18281	0
9-2022	20616	0
8-2022	17619	0

• 38998, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-3, Alexandria,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	1104	253

• 38997, conf, Slawson, Blizzard Federal 1-13H, Big Bend, no production data,
• 38732, conf, Hess, EN-Neset-156-94-1819H-1, Big Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	17432	40605
10-2022	25583	50031
9-2022	25315	43703
8-2022	27350	45608
7-2022	17068	11171

• 31325, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 41-12 2B, Camp,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	16812	21596
10-2022	18073	24273
9-2022	26616	31956
8-2022	20447	23655
7-2022	4988	5885

• 39012, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm 16-21 5H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data
• 30868, conf, Prima Exploration, Smokey Bear State 3H, Smoky Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	20025	4877
10-2022	10236	0
9-2022	9874	0

• 27898, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 15-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 39013, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm 16-21 5H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data, 
• 38733, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1, Beaver Lodge,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	11860	23259
10-2022	13538	23791
9-2022	12737	20631
8-2022	17969	28534
7-2022	18795	13821

• 38014, conf, Petroshale, Laverendrye Federal 5TFH, Bear Den,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	25029	34181
10-2022	5173	5859

• 34526, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 6-14-18TFH,Big Ben, no production data
• 27897, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 14-6H2, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 39014, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm LE 16-21 1H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 38688, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 4 SLTFH, Bear Den, no production data, 
• 38015, conf, Petroshale, Sacagawea Federal 4MBH, Bear Den,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	33231	37373
10-2022	9134	12011

• 27896, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 13-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 38412, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-2THU, Sanish,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	3120	3147
10-2022	11587	11674
9-2022	14660	15416
8-2022	12297	12335

• 27895, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 12-6H1, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 27894, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 11-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 38734, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1, Manitou, the EN-Anderson wells are tracked here;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	13030	30860
10-2022	14824	29015
9-2022	22882	42262
8-2022	28302	45923
7-2022	21226	19738

• 38013, conf, Petroshale, Thompson Federal 4TFH, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 27893, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 10-6H2, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 38768, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 4-3-10H-143-95, Murphy Creek, no production data,
• 38195, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-LW-155-94-1423H-1, Alkali Creek, the EN-Rehak wells in Alger field are tracked here; this EN-Rehak well is in the Alkali Creek oil field, in one township to the east;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	16683	28148
10-2022	22160	31344
9-2022	26206	39639
8-2022	27031	39901
7-2022	29739	15872

• 36892, conf, Petroshale, Bowie Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, no production, data,
• 27892, conf, CLR, Jersey FU 9-6H, Alkali Creek, no production, data,
• 39015, conf, Kraken, Feller 15-22 7H, Lone Tree Lake, no production, data
• 38767, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 3-3-10H-143-95; Murphy Creek, no production, data,
  

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 16, 2023

Wednesday, January 25, 2023:
39048, conf, CLR, Kelling 8-4H,
39000, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-5,
38867, conf, Prima Exploration, Yogi Bear State 3H,
34525, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 7-14-18H,

Tuesday, January 24, 2023:
38999, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-3,
38889, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2918-3BH,
38888, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2918-4BH,

Monday, January 23, 2023:
38998, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-3,
38997, conf, Slawson, Blizzard Federal 1-13H,
38732, conf, Hess, EN-Neset-156-94-1819H-1,
31325, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 41-12 2B,

Sunday, January 22, 2023:
None.

Saturday, January 21, 2023:
39012, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm 16-21 5H,
30868, conf, Prima Exploration, Smokey Bear State 3H,
27898, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 15-6H,

Friday, January 20, 2023:
39013, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm 16-21 5H,
38733, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1,
38014, conf, Petroshale, Laverendrye Federal 5TFH,
34526, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 6-14-18TFH,
27897, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 14-6H2,

Thursday, January 19, 2023:
39014, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm LE 16-21 1H,
38688, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 4 SLTFH,
38015, conf, Petroshale, Sacagawea Federal 4MBH,
27896, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 13-6H,

Wednesday, January 18, 2023:
38412, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-2THU,
27895, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 12-6H1,

Tuesday, January 17, 2023:
27894, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 11-6H,

Monday, January 16, 2023:
38734, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1,
38013, conf, Petroshale, Thompson Federal 4TFH,
27893, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 10-6H2,

Sunday, January 15, 2023:
38768, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 4-3-10H-143-95,
38195, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-LW-155-94-1423H-1,
36892, conf, Petroshale, Bowie Federal 3MBH,
27892, conf, CLR, Jersey FU 9-6H,

Saturday, January 14, 2023:
39015, conf, Kraken, Feller 15-22 7H,
38767, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 3-3-10H-143-95;