Saturday, December 31, 2022

Wow, wow, wow! Sugaring NYC is putting in a brand new "store" in our neighborhood shopping mall, without question, one of the best malls of this type in the Dallas-Ft Worth area. 

Covid-19: percent of Americans vaccinated for Covid-19. Link here.

Seasonal flu -- link here:

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The Book Page

A slew of books are now in the public domain:

In 2019, for the first time in over two decades, a new crop of literary work entered the public domain: everything first published in the United States in 1923. (Don’t forget the secret public domain books, either.) In 2020, books by E.M. Forster, Edna Ferber, and Edith Wharton became available for remixing. 2021 brought us everything published in 1925, “the greatest year for books,” including, of course, The Great Gatsby (yes, a sequel was published immediately, with plenty more in the works). And last year, notably, A.A. Milne’s Winnie-the-Pooh passed through the veil, leading, inevitably and unfortunately, to this.

 

So what’s on the table this year? Though copyright laws differ from country to country, on January 1st, 2023, books that were published in 1927 will enter the public domain in the United States. Here’s a selection of the most interesting:

 

Herbert Asbury, The Gangs of New York

Willa Cather, Death Comes for the Archbishop

Agatha Christie, The Big Four

Countee Cullen, ed., Caroling Dusk: An Anthology of Verse by Negro Poets

Franklin W. Dixon, The Tower Treasure (The Hardy Boys #1)

Franklin W. Dixon, The House on the Cliff (The Hardy Boys #2)

Franklin W. Dixon, The Secret of the Old Mill (The Hardy Boys #3)

Arthur Conan Doyle, “The Adventure of the Veiled Lodger”

Arthur Conan Doyle, “The Adventure of Shoscombe Old Place”

E.M. Forster, Aspects of the Novel

Ernest Hemingway, Men Without Women

Hermann Hesse, Steppenwolf

Franz Kafka, Amerika

Anita Loos, But Gentlemen Marry Brunettes

Edith Wharton, Twilight Sleep

Thornton Wilder, The Bridge of San Luis Rey

Virginia Woolf, To the Lighthouse

Week 52: December 25, 2022 -- December 31, 2022

Top US energy story of the year:

Top story:

• Joe Biden is still president

Top international non-energy story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues
• Ukraine destroying Russia's conventional military with cast-off weapons from US
• Covid-19 surges in Asia
• all the attention on China, but Japan, South Korea also experiencing surge

Top international energy story:

• Russia to flood global economy with diesel just before sanctions kick in
• EU energy crisis averted (at least for now): warm weather and de-industrialization
• Texas grid -- ERCOT -- holds just fine
  

Top national non-energy story:

• various agencies, states recommend US mask indoors again; data doesn't support that recommendation -- yet
• cases plummeting
  

Top national energy story: 

• WTI ends at $80.29 last trading day of 2022
• natural gas: proved reserves in US sets a new record
• oil: US oil reserves increased by 16%
• STR acquires MNRL
  

Javier Blas:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Polar vortex shuts down 1/3rd Bakken production
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• an XTO parent well with a 26x jump in production;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.
  

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

Saturday, New Year's Eve -- December 31, 2022

Sunny skies and 70 degrees -- this is north Texas on New Year's Eve and Olivia's soccer team winning this morning's tournament game, 6 - 0. 

Rock my world:

Brooks and Dunn

Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves: link here.

US natural gas records: link here.

Laser-focused on dividends: link here.

Companies in the S&P 500 allocated an estimated $561 billion toward dividends in 2022, up from $511.2 billion in 2021 and the highest amount on record.

Dividend spending is poised for another record in 2023 as companies are under pressure from investors to keep increasing returns ....“There is still a lot of cash on corporate balance sheets. You’d have to have significant pullback for there not to be a record [in 2023] at this point.” 

Other shareholder returns, such as buybacks, are expected to decline slightly from a total of around $963 billion in 2022, as a 1% excise tax is set to take effect in January.

S&P 500 companies spent $210.8 billion on stock buybacks in the third quarter, down about 10% from a year earlier.

Among the businesses that increased dividends in 2022 were chip maker Broadcom Inc., fast-food giant McDonald’s Corp., credit-card firm Visa Inc. and biopharmaceutical business AbbVie Inc.

For example, Broadcom in December said it was boosting its quarterly dividend by 12% to $4.60 a share for the fiscal year ending October 2023, pointing to strong cash flows over the past year and the expectation of continued demand in most of its markets.

Broadcom: cash and cash equivalents were $12.4 billion as of Oct. 30, 2022, up 2% from a year earlier, a filing showed. It paid $7 billion in cash dividends for the year ended October 30, 2022, up 13.2% from the prior-year period.

Dividends are also set to get a boost in 2023 as some of the companies that cut or pared payouts early in the pandemic bring them back. Nearly 190 U.S.-listed companies stopped paying dividends in 2020 to preserve cash as the pandemic closed swaths of the economy.

Thirty-nine returned to them that same year, 53 followed suit in 2021, and roughly 30 have done so this year. 

I have to thank a reaeder for alerting me to Broadcom, now a significant part of my "new money" allocation, 30-year plan. 

"Chest Cold" Update -- December 30, 2022

I'll post the rest of the graphs later, but this pretty much tells the story. Unless we get a second wave, this will be a most remarkable season.

Link here.

All "chest colds" -- seasonal flu, RSV, unspecified, and Covid-19, out-patient visits as percentage of all clinic visits:

Laboratory-confirmed seasonal flu for which we have a vaccine:

As far as Covid-19 goes, new cases reported on a daily basis two days ago, link here:

WTI: $80 At End Of 2022; Two New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed -- December 30, 2022

Active rigs: 45.

Two new permits, #39539 - 39540, inclusive:

• Operator: WPX
• Field: Heart Butte (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• WPX has permits for two more Two Shields Butte wells, SESE 8-149-92, 
• one to be sited  635 FSL and 180 FEL, and the other to be sited 606 FSL and 178 FEL

Seven permits renewed:

• CLR (4): four Sodbuster permits in Williams County;
• Enerplus: a Widgeon permit, a Scaup permit, and a Pintail permit, Dunn County; the Enerplus "Daffy Duck" pad is tracked here;
  

ERCOT: My Electricity Statement -- December 22, 2022

We only have electricity, no natural gas. This is our only monthly utility bill.

********************
Elsewhere

New Hampshire:

• set to double:

• EnergySage:

Connecticut:

• EnergySage:

*******************
New Hampshire

From the New Hampshire link above:

One of the state’s major utilities is set to double the price of electricity in August, and it’s likely other utilities will be forced to raise their prices, too. The price hikes are being driven by projected high costs of natural gas.

In a Monday filing with the Public Utilities Commission, Liberty Utilities proposed increasing the per kilowatt hour price of electricity from 11.11 cents, the rate in effect from February to July of this year, to 22.23 cents starting in July.

That means a typical household would see a 47 percent increase in its electric bill, according to consumer advocate Don Kreis. (Other charges on the bill would remain unchanged.) A household currently paying $150 per month would see their electricity increase to $220 per month.

“I think people are really going to feel this in their pocketbooks. It’s going to be a very unpleasant winter for everyone in New Hampshire,” said Kreis, adding that low prices for natural gas have lulled the state and region into complacency over the last decade.

Those low prices have evaporated, with some natural gas prices reaching $8.78 per million British thermal units in May, the highest they’ve been since 2008. Projections show that cost more than tripling to $30 per mmBtu.

Laser-Focuseed On Dividends -- December 30, 2022

Link here.

Vardah Gill: sixteen best dividend stocks of 2022.

For this list, we selected dividend stocks (regardless of yield) with the highest returns in 2022 so far.

These companies also have strong balance sheets and sound financials. The stocks are ranked according to their year-to-date returns, as of December 12, 2022.

In reverse order, #16 first:

• DVN, PSX, EOG, ADM, CF
• MRK, COP, MCK, CAH, APA,
• MRO, XOM, EQT, HES, OXY,

and #1:

• INSW -- International Seaways.

WTI Turns "Green" On Last Trading Day Of The Year -- December 30, 2022

South Korea: link here.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $79.19. On last trading day of the year, WTI is up 1.01%; up 79 cents.

Natural gas: $4.494.

Monday, January 2, 2023:
38531, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31XH,
38198, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-5,

Sunday, January 1, 2023:
38955, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-6H,

Saturday, December 31, 2022:
None. There was no June 31, 2022.

Friday, December 30, 2022:
37642, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 5-13-12TFH, 

RBN Energy: the top ten RBN blogs of 2022 -- all about energy security. Archived.

• #10 – 6/26/22 – U.S. Refinery Shutdowns a Major Contributor to Refined Products Squeeze and High Prices
• #9 – 8/21/22 – As the U.S. Races Toward 30 Bcf/d of LNG Exports, What Could It Mean for Upstream Markets?
• #8 – 7/24/22 – Will the Propane Market Be Prepared for Winter?
• #7 – 3/31/22 – The Real-life Impacts of the Planned Crude Oil Releases from the SPR
• #6 – 2/28/22 – Unseen Costs of the Energy Transition: Minerals, Metals, and Construction Materials
• #5 – 3/6/2022 – What Do U.S. Refineries Import from Russia? And What If They Stop?
• #4 – 2/27/22 – An Update on LNG Export Projects Along Canada's West Coast
• #3 – 3/13/2022 – Cushing's Running Low on Crude Oil. How Much is Left In the Tanks?
• #2 – 2/6/2022 – Alberta's Oil Sands Production Setting Up For Another Record Year In 2022
• #1 – 5/6/2022 – What's Driving U.S. Refiners' Sky-High Crack Spreads?

Twenty Photos -- Vern Whitten -- From 2022

Link here. 

Mr Whitten would love to hear from you.

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

Previously Reported -- Updates -- December 29, 2022

TSMC: link here.

Ford: link here.

Frisco, TX, PGA Course Opens -- Cost One-Half Billion Dollars -- What A Great Country -- December 29, 2022

Frisco, TX, "Sports City, USA." Link here.

Frisco, TX: just up the road from where I live .

In spring 2023, the Professional Golfers’ Association of America’s 660-acre, $520 million mixed-use development campus is slated to open to the public.

The campus will include two 18-hole courses, an Omni Resort, golf-themed retail stores and restaurants, a driving range and a clubhouse. Everything except the headquarters building is still under construction.

In August, 2022, tickets became available for the first championship tournament to be played at PGA Frisco.

The headquarters building held a grand opening August 22, 2022. It features offices, outdoor terraces, a video studio and an indoor golf training facility that includes a chipping area, a putting area and driving range simulators.

An XTO Parent Well With A 26x Jump In Production -- December 29, 2022

The well:

• 18903, 394, XTO, Opedahl 21X-11, Capa, t8/11; cum 198K 10/22; recent production, a jump from 700 bbls to18,000 bbls represents a jump of 26x, at the wellhead, at $70/bbl --> from $49,000/month to $1.3 million:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	18303	18284	36454	24160	10949	12924
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	12126	12030	28400	21765	690	20903
BAKKEN	8-2022	19	8256	8462	23848	16511	931	15463
BAKKEN	7-2022	5	962	641	10375	1925	286	1622
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	474	600	794	1070	817	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	732	764	757	1464	1176	27
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	713	720	808	1643	1354	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	819	820	876	1693	1412	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	798	769	931	1555	1284	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	797	877	916	718	171	285

The map:

Five New Permits (Hess); CLR Renews Nineteen Permits; Five Permits Canceled; One DUC Reported As Completed -- December 29, 2022

Paid no federal taxes in 2020:

• 60% of American households, paid no taxes in 2020;
• neither President Trump nor his wife Melania paid any taxes in 2020
• in 2020: Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, Michael Bloomberg, and George Soros -- among the 25 richest Americans that as a whole, paid a "true tax rate of only 3.4% -- but again, that's more than what the Trumps paid -- link.
  
• I don't even want to think how much I paid in 2020, how much in 2021 and how much I'll pay in 2022.
• The Bidens in 2020:  The President and the First Lady filed their income tax return jointly and reported federal adjusted gross income of $607,336. The Bidens paid $157,414 in federal income tax and their 2020 effective federal income tax rate is 25.9 percent. Link here.
  

Keystone Pipeline: the system is now operational to all delivery points -- source.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $78.63.

Natural gas: $4.566.

Five new permits, #39534  - #39538, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Manitou (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for five EN-Enger wells in NENE 15-156-94; to be sited 588 FNL and between 434 FEEL and 566 FEL

Twenty permit renewals:

• Slawson: one Ripper Federal permit (Mountrail)
  
• CLR (19):
• two Schroeder permits (Williams)
• two Marleene permits (Williams)
• four Lancaster permits (McKenzie)
• one Chicago permit (McKenzie)
• two Charlotte permits (McKenzie)
• two Sacramento permits (Williams)
• one Akron permit (McKenzie)
• two Thronson permits (Mountrail)
• one Sorenson permit (Mountrail)
• two Sodbuster permits (Williams)

Five permits canceled:

• Petroshale: five Tahu permits canceled

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 36185, 1,118, Olaf 42X-11EXF, Williams

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- December 29, 2022

API from yesterday:

Weekly report, link here:

• US crude oil inventories increased by 0.7 million bbls; now stand at 419.0 million bbls; 6% below the five-year average;
• US refiners operating at 92.0% of their capacity
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million bbls; remain at 7% below the five-year average.
• jet fuel supplied was up by a whopping 8.6%;

Gasoline demand, link here:

Jet fuel delivered:

************************
The Apple Page

I think we may have discussed this before: the difference between OLED and LED.

In one drawing:

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Mnemonics

House: Season 1, episode 2.

Acronym: MIDNITE

• metabolic
• inflammatory
• degenerative
• neoplastic
• infection
• trauma
• environmental

Third year medical students have these in their toolkit.

Admission orders: DC Van Dissl, MD (but varies)

• diagnosis
• condition
• vital signs
  
• activity
• nursing procedures
• diet
• ins and outs
• sleep medications
• stool medications
• labs
• meds
• diagnostic tests

Physicians "learn" these in their first year of clinical medicine. They still remember them seventy years later. 

MNRL --> STR; Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- December 29, 2022

2023: global oil demand could surge three to four million bopd next year. Alex Kimani.

• hint: watch for May 31, 2023

MNRL --> STR:

• the announcement, September 6, 2022: link here.
• completion of merger announced, December 29, 2022: link here.
• shares, exchange: link here;

Tax selling losses:

• IRS: link here.
• social medial: link here.
  

Jobs, BLS: link here.

Market after BLS report released: link here.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 300 points Thursday after initial unemployment claims data from the Labor Department exceeded estimates. And Tesla stock surged as Morgan Stanley reiterated an overweight rating with a reduced price target.

Weekly unemployment figures showed first-time claims rose to 225,000 vs. 216,000 in the previous week, higher than Econoday estimates for a rise to 222,000. Claims have been up and down in recent weeks, but generally trending lower since a mid-November high of 241,000.

Job market is still strong, link here. 

Stocks rallied on Wall Street in afternoon trading Thursday as investors reviewed the latest government update showing that the labor market remains strong.

The S&P 500 rose 1.8% as of 1:46 p.m. Eastern. More than 95% of stocks within the benchmark index gained ground. It's the latest oscillation in what has been a volatile, holiday-shortened week for stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 376 points, or 1.1%, to 33,250 and the Nasdaq rose 2.6%.

Last week, the market went down because the job market was still strong. Whatever.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $77.64.

Natural gas: $4.442.

Friday, December 30, 2022:
37642, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 5-13-12TFH,

Thursday, December 29, 2022:
38956, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-13H,
38199, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-4,
37641, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 4-13-12TFH,

RBN Energy: EPA proposal brings third parties into fight against methane "super-emitters." Part 4. 

The Biden administration’s first foray into reducing methane emissions from oil and gas operations, released in November 2021, promised to reduce emissions from hundreds of thousands of existing sites, expand and strengthen emission-reduction requirements, and encourage the use of new technologies. It was clear about one other thing too, namely that more was already in the works. And sure enough, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently followed up with a proposal that significantly broadens the initial plan. In today’s RBN blog we look at that supplemental proposal, its targeting of so-called “super-emitters,” and why third-party groups will play a bigger role in mitigating methane emissions in the years ahead.

We have written extensively about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past few years. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has often been the focus, but methane is also an important part of those discussions because it’s a particularly powerful GHG, with a Global Warming Potential (GWP) that is 25-36 times that of CO2 when normalized to a 100-year timeline. (And more than 80 times that of CO2 if normalized to a 20-year timeline.) A tricky part of the problem is that the actual level (and sources) of methane emissions can be hard to accurately identify and quantify, mostly because estimates can vary greatly depending on how they’re calculated.

STR - MNRL In The News Tomorrow — December 29, 2022

Wow, Wow, Wow -- The Kraken Jenna Wells Are Going To Be Monster Wells -- December 28, 2022

Updates

January 2, 2023: important update. 

Original Post 

The Kraken Jenna wells are now being reported.

See map below; this was not on my bingo card. This is about the last oil field in which I would expect wells like this. [See update, January 2, 2023, above. Now we know why.]

I have time to post only one Jenna well:

• 38509, F/A, Kraken, Jenna 4-33-28 3H, Burg, t--; cum 239K 10/22; 240K x $70 = $17 million at the wellhead:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	30	22682	22456	31682	23560	21909	1051
BAKKEN	9-2022	26	23726	24128	30348	27064	26215	349
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	31912	31979	43072	29040	28468	356
BAKKEN	7-2022	23	20339	20414	30387	17288	16639	490
BAKKEN	6-2022	29	30446	30501	46718	24356	23569	581
BAKKEN	5-2022	29	25162	24665	41251	17363	13170	3975
BAKKEN	4-2022	22	21001	21305	37491	14806	14129	408
BAKKEN	3-2022	20	23041	22598	43173	17051	16378	434
BAKKEN	2-2022	7	8138	8369	18609	5860	4484	1274
BAKKEN	1-2022	27	32369	31796	67382	23630	21186	2052

The map:

Updating Initial Production Data For CLR Rolf Federal Wells In One Of My Favorite Fields -- December 28, 2022

The CLR Rolf Federal wells are tracked here. 

Updates. A couple of those wells.

38297, drl/A, CLR, Rolf Federal 9-17H, Brooklyn, t--; cum 154K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	15118	15002	20012	57914	57386	125
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	21905	21795	23058	66036	64294	1358
BAKKEN	8-2022	28	22300	22385	21725	42732	40382	2021
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	41194	41517	33313	75865	71244	4222
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	42982	42746	37400	73248	70213	2660
BAKKEN	5-2022	8	10228	9867	15641	15090	14789	301
BAKKEN	4-2022	4	319	319	3740	977	0	977

38296, drl, CLR, Rolf Federal 10-17H1, Brooklyn,  t--; cum 129K 10/22: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	15927	15835	20550	52880	52338	139
BAKKEN	9-2022	25	19775	19630	22229	44474	43858	306
BAKKEN	8-2022	23	12420	12505	13733	25034	19426	5378
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	35819	35805	34349	61224	59532	1293
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	35717	35843	37523	60945	57781	2785
BAKKEN	5-2022	8	8892	8528	15467	13484	12868	616
BAKKEN	4-2022	5	335	335	3023	0	0	0

Perhaps, the parent well:

• 20183, 282, CLR, Rolf 1-20H, Brooklyn, t6/11; cum 488K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	818	840	3875	2078	1659	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	763	551	3885	1657	1252	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	682	791	3825	1178	729	30
BAKKEN	7-2022	28	483	317	3457	634	269	10
BAKKEN	6-2022	6	0	0	12	143	141	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	15	889	1154	872	3106	2930	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	2025	1907	2281	8248	7756	73
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1967	2062	2392	9648	9011	220
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2065	1915	2589	9066	8662	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2153	2312	2803	8231	7813	0

A Hess EN-Johnson Well Is A Monster Well -- December 28, 2022

The graphics:

The Hess EN-Johnson wells are tracked here.

Here we go.

• 37711, loc/drl-->loc/A, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-9, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 248K 10/22 in thirteen months; at the wellhead, $70 x 248 = $17.4 million.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	8560	8594	6781	37670	37311	359
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	8289	8247	7015	37272	29872	7400
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	6962	6991	15425	34750	27303	7447
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	11903	11910	13861	39377	34353	5024
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	14394	14381	13497	33969	33692	277
BAKKEN	5-2022	26	13156	13176	11092	29424	29424	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	12824	12806	9055	28234	27773	461
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	14553	14588	9500	25768	25538	230
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	22631	22582	15624	36443	35847	596
BAKKEN	1-2022	29	17106	17130	13163	38068	35459	2609
BAKKEN	12-2021	27	22768	22809	13510	34807	33021	1786
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	38405	38421	27608	60480	58066	2414
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	50594	50530	40471	52343	50721	1622
BAKKEN	9-2021	18	6601	6540	4282	8991	8625	366