Some Housekeeping -- Updating Some Wells -- Interesting For Newbies -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Periodically I go back and update wells that I have been following. Tonight I looked at  "Wells to Watch, Part I." I only got about halfway through but found enough to put up an interesting stand-alone post.

I think newbies will get a kick out of this.

1. This was the first well I saw that needed updating:

I have no idea what this was all about, but my data base shows the original permit was held by Slawson but later acquired by EOG. I don't know the details.

It was spud on 5/30/10. It's IP was 2,195.

It has produced 289,091 bbls of oil through June, 2011. That's about 290K in one year. At $50/bbl --> $14.5 million; and the well is still producing 12,000 bbls / month (that's $600,000 / month at $50/bbl). Remember, Bakken wells are expected to produce for 25 - 35 years. "Legacy" wells in North Dakota have been known to produce for 50 years.

18504, 2,195, EOG, Van Hook 7-23H, Van Hook, Bakken (previously a Slawson permit)

2. Then I came across a few Dakota-3 wells that were acquired from Zenergy in the very productive Van Hook field:

• 18735, 1,936, Dakota-3/Zenergy, Dakota-3 State of ND 10-3H
• 18737, 1,034, Dakota-3/Zenergy, Dakota-3 Mason 2-11H,
• 18754, 2,756, Dakota-3/Zenergy, Van Hook, Dakota-3 Olson 1-12H, 54K in 5 months
• Dakota-3 is a subsidiary of WMB, and as noted before, bought 7% of the mineral rights in the reservation
  

3. But Dakota-3 wasn't the only one with great wells in the Van Hook. Slawson has some great Van Hook wells, as well. Slawson is privately held:

• 18749, 502, Slawson, Osprey Federal 1-26-35-30H, 75K in 8 months
• 18750, 439, Slawson, permit 24 Feb 10, Shad Rap Federal 1-2-3H, (1,546 - 24-hour flowback); 73K in 8 months
• 18924, 1,361, Slawson, Van Hook, Vixen Federal 1-19-30H, 60K in 4 months
• 19010, 847, Slawson, Van Hook, Armada Federal 1-14-13H, 95K in 6 months

 4. Likewise, EOG has some great wells in the Van Hook:

• 18825, 951, EOG, Van Hook 8-36H, 200K in less than a year
• 18828, 1,066, EOG, Van Hook, Liberty LR 16-36H, 85K in 5 months
• 19018, 927, EOG, Van Hook, Van Hook 15-15H, 139K in 9 months

5. KOG had a nice well in its productive Moccasin Creek field

• 18656, 2,035, KOG, Moccasin Creek 13-34-28H, 144K in 10 months

6. And then look at this. Three completed WLL wells in one section (1280-acre spacing, however) in their very prolific Sanish, and a fourth well is nearing completion. The results of three wells and noting the fourth well:

• 18530, 2,686, Whiting, section 27, Jorgensen 12-27H; 233K in first first year
• 17612, 4,761, Whiting, Maki - 11-27H, section 27-- record IP ; 423K in first 14 months (at $50/bbl = $21 million in first year)
• 19512, 1,959, Whiting, Oja 14-27XH, Sanish, section 27, flowing, but off-line, pump being put on?
• 20358, almost complete, Whiting, Ray 12-27TFH, Sanish, section 27
• For newbies: remember, these wells are expected to produce oil for 25 - 35 years. 

7. Not all Bakken wells are this outstanding but there are very few dry wells in the Bakken, and even those wells with smaller IPs are paying back their investment in two to three years according to many corporate presentations -- but even if they are being a bit optimistic, I can't believe any Bakken well won't pay for itself in five years; Bakken wells are expected to produce 25 - 35 years. 

For My Own Use To Follow-Up Later: MRO To Re-Frack 18 Bakken Wells in 2011 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Wells Added To The List Since Original Post
Wells Reported in 2Q11

• 16811, 77 from the first "failed" frack of just one stage, 100K lbs, December, 2010; (refracked about a year later, the sundry form received December 19, 2011, showed an IP of 1,017 bbls; 20 stages; 2.4 million lbs);  MRO, T Kupper USA 34-11H, Chimney Butte, Bakken, 20 frack stages; 2.4 million lbs; t4/11; cum 109K 5/15 (interesting production profile); looks like it was taken off-line in January, 2015, and then had a tank leak (human error); very small, April, 2015:

BAKKEN	1-2012	31	4009	4040	1588	3641	3278	178
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	7360	7354	3329	6238	5054	998
BAKKEN	11-2011	25	12637	12290	4327	11967	11087	732
BAKKEN	10-2011	2	0	0	60	1	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2011	18	253	220	147	117	16	9
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	432	662	32	253	57	17
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	943	863	22	554	292	76

Starting With Wells Reported in 1Q11 

• 19375, IA/308, MRO, Gertrude Tuhy 34-24H, Bailey, Bakken, 14 stages; 2 million lbs; t3/11; cum 38K 10/14; last production of any note 1/14. Update, July 12, 2015: is something going on with this well? After more than a year without any activity, in May, 2015, this well produced 1,636 bbls over 27 days. Then off-line again as of 10/15. [Update, 3/17: I see this well is now AB.]

• 16764, 473, MRO, Knudsvig 34-7H, Bailey, Bakken, 18 stages; 2.2 million lbs; t12/10; cum 220K 8/16;

BAKKEN	10-2012	31	4107	4216	2382	2092	1194	712
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	4724	4743	3080	1903	859	864
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	6470	6248	3972	2700	1732	783
BAKKEN	7-2012	24	1927	2002	1710	461	101	324
BAKKEN	6-2012	22	1243	1345	434	1015	367	625
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	1088	907	363	733	262	383

• 19299, 608, MRO, Luther USA 31-16H, Reunion Bay, Bakken, 20 stages; 2.7 million lbs; t3/11; cum 386K 3/17;

BAKKEN	4-2013	30	8955	9094	1493	9398	8236	983
BAKKEN	3-2013	27	7022	6788	1201	7133	5715	1271
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	8479	8544	1202	8384	7243	978
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	5141	5101	765	4964	3977	805
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	7135	6813	962	5810	4581	1049
BAKKEN	11-2012	2	16	0	0	16	5	10
BAKKEN	10-2012	17	3831	4073	558	2330	1731	517
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	8562	8294	1312	4483	3343	960

• 19284, 1,130, MRO, Edward Darwin 14-35H, Murphy Creek, Bakken, 20 stages; 3.4 million lbs; t7/11; cum 151K 3/17;

Update

December 18, 2011: went through the list below; looks like six wells have been re-worked/re-fracked

Original Post

Back on October 25, 2009 -- feels like "ages ago" -- I posted:

Energy production in North Dakota can be thought of as a series of three-legged stools:

Energy: oil, natural gas, and coal.
Technology: hz drilling, multi-stage fracking, re-frac.
Formations: Bakken, Three Forks Sanish, Lodgepole.

Brian sent me a nice note today reminding me that that at the 2011 Howard Weil Energy Conference, Marathon Oil (in slide 73 of 95 slides) said they planned to re-frack 18 wells in the Bakken in 2011. 

I don't know what 18 wells MRO selected, but I will put put a few wells on my list to follow-up to see if production has changed six months from now. This is done for my own benefit, so I don't forget.

I have selected about 25 wells, based on information from various sources and for various reasons; again, this is just for my own benefit; I will tag these "follow-up and look at them six months from now, just simply for the fun of it. Don't try to make sense of the list:

• 16758 - 30 -1559; summer of 2012?
• 17140 - 30 - 1290; Dec 11:  production at 1,607, but never taken off-line
• 17693 - 30 - 1368; summer of 2013? re-worked late 2014/early 2015 -- significant jump in May, 2015
• 17876 - 30 - 1196; Dec 11: no evidence of any refracking; update, November, 2017, it looks like it was re-fracked;
• 17753 - 30 - 4504; Dec 11; looks like it was re-fracked/re-worked July 11; re-worked/re-fracked summer, 2014
• 17844 - 28 - 3612; Dec 11; looks like it was re-fracked/re-worked May 11
• 17817 - 30 - 1733; Dec 11; no evidence of any refracking
• 17999 - 30 - 1218; Dec 11; no evidence of any refracking
• 17971 - 31 - 1305; Dec 11; definitely refracked or re-worked
• 17865 - 30 - 1026; Dec 11: off-line now; being re-worked? -- yes, huge jump, from 1,000 bbls/month to 7,000 bbls/month
• 17315 -  30 - 1915; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking
• 18486 - 30 - 1251; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking
• 17883 - 23 - 1523; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking
• 17375 -30 - 1983; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking; update, re-fracked, January, 2015;
• 18681 - 23 - 2182 (previous month: 30 - 760); Dec 11: strange production profile; re-fraced 12/14 according to FracFocus;
• 17966 - 23 - 1627; Dec 14: probably re-fracked/reworked May/June 14
• 17712 - 24 - 1226; Dec 11: probably refracked/reworked in June 11
• 17713 - 30 - 1777; Dec 11: probably refracked/reworked July/Aug 11
• 16868 - 30 - 1466; Dec 11: no evidence
• 17171 - 29 - 1677; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 556,220 lbs sand
• 16925 - 30 - 1452; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 561,000 lbs sand
• 17164 - 30 - 1358; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 543,900 lbs sand; off-line as of 10/16 (IA)
• 17216 - 30 - 983; summer of 2012? If so, not a great result; a sundry form in 2011 says MRO planned to re-frac;
• 17528 - 30 - 1134; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 552,260 lbs sand
• 17578 - 30 - 1093; Dec 11: no evidence; off-line as of 9/16 (IA)
• 17698 - 30 - 1013; Dec 11: no evidence
• 17049 - 30 - 1648; Dec 14: perhaps some re-working in summer 2014; off-line as of 2/17;
• 16923 - 30 - 1229; Dec 14: some re-working spring of 2013;

A Recommendaton to See "BUCK" -- A Movie Now In General Release -- Not A Bakken Story

Recommending movies has absolutely nothing to do with the Bakken (in general; some exceptions).

But in this case, I felt I would be remiss in not saying something.

I would assume that many readers who live in the Bakken area, who come from the Bakken area, who are interested in more than just oil when it comes to this part of the world, have some of the same interests that I have.

Having said that, it then might make sense why I am posting this.

I saw Buck last night. No one recommended it to me. I stumbled across it looking at what was playing in San Antonio's premier theater showing independent movies -- if that's how it is said. I saw Buck and it obviously and immediately attracted my attention.

I went to it last night. It is a documentary on the cowboy -- and he's the real deal -- who advised Robert Redford while filming The Horse Whisperer.

Because it's a documentary, it won't appeal to a lot of folks. The action is subtle, but the story is sublime. I get emotional easily, so it wasn't a surprise that I teared up during the movie, but what was surprising was to the extent I teared up, and it occurred during scenes that were funny, poignant, and very, very sad, all at the same time. I don't ever recall that combined feeling in other documentaries. It's my experience that feelings generally come one at a time, but not at all once.

The "cameo" in the movie with Robert Redford was excellent; I wish there had been a bit more of him, but perhaps there were concerns it would take a bit away from the subject of the documentary.

There will be one very difficult scene in the movie for horse lovers, but I credit the director for not cutting it.

Unrelated to that scene, I will be forever haunted, in a good way, by the deputy sheriff in the documentary.

I think there is a surprise every three minutes in that film.

The director of this outstanding film was a woman, and I immediately thought of Sofia Coppola and Lost in Translation. Although Buck is a documentary, and the other is a "movie," there are similarities.

Once of the great "things" I have enjoyed about the United States is how each region is so different, and how one can really enjoy each region. Across the northern tier where I have spent a lot of time, one can feel the culture change as one goes west from Minnesota across North Dakota to Montana. Even eastern North Dakota is separable from western North Dakota.

I grew up in Wililston, eighteen miles from the Montana - North Dakota state line. There was nothing at the state line on Highway 2 except the "State Line Club" on the Montana side. But yet, every time I cross the Montana state line (as we called it; never referring to it as the Montana - North Dakota state line, or the North Dakota state line) I felt like was crossing into a place, as my nephew says, "far away in place and time."

Those of you who have grown up in western North Dakota, probably more specifically west of the Missouri, and those of you who have grown up in eastern Montana, can immediately identify with "Buck."

When he speaks, he speaks like a poet. One can hear his cowboy poetry and his cowboy wisdom.

My best childhood friend would love this film. I hope you get a chance to see it. 

Wow, Wow, and Wow! The New York Times Is Trying to Walk Back the Shoddy "Reporting" They Did On Natural Gas -- Op-Ed Comes Out Day After CHK Conference Call -- CHK Confirmed Game Changer in Ohio

Link here.

The link is to a long op-ed piece in The New York Times to which the "public editor," Arthur S. Brisbane, takes responsibility. The op-ed piece appears to be reacting to the backlash generated by the shoddy "reporting" in the New York Times about the hoax, scam, or Ponzi scheme the newspaper described in its portrayal of the US natural gas industry as another "Enron."

I scanned through the Brisbane op-ed piece very, very quickly, and have little appetite to read it again, so I may be misreading it. But it certainly sounds as if The New York Times realized how shoddy their "reporting" was on this story, and appears to be trying to "walk back" the story as they say. [See first comment below: some will argue that the "reporting" was typical "spin" but in this case the "spin" was so bad, everyone held it up to ridicule.]

I find the timing of Brisbane's op-ed piece very, very interesting. I doubt an op-ed piece like this is thought about, written, edited, and published overnight. The Times, no doubt, has been trying to figure out how and when to deal with that shoddy piece of reporting. I'm sure The Times would deny it, but to connect the timing of the op-ed piece to Chesapeake's conference call one day earlier (in which the CEO confirmed a huge shale oil and gas find in the Utica [Ohio] seems to be a no-brainer).

The CHK conference call, confirming a game-changer in US energy, was aired live July 28, 2011; The Times op-ed piece is dated July 30, 2011, and is now making the rounds.

I was alerted to it by Dave to whom I owe much gratitude.

[On July 29, 2011, after hearing the CHK conference call, I suggested that The New York Times editorial staff read the transcript.]

The two biggest stories on this blog so far this year in terms of number of hits are a) the story on the fire at Cyclone 18; and, b) the shoddy reporting of the original New York Times article. In fact if you google "new york times natural gas" (without the quotation marks), this blog is on the first page of results.

If you add the single word "hoax" to that search (as in: new york times natural gas hoax), this blog is the number one result on google.

I find it curious and interesting that The Times blames their shodding reporting on redacting e-mails. It goes much, much deeper than that.

************

The Utica, extends under upstate New York, and if states want to get out of their budgetary and unemployment debacles, they would do well to look at industries that cannot easily be outsourced overseas. And that includes a favorable business climate: appropriate regulation and oversight, appropriate taxation, and a pro-business stance.

The first comment below suggests the same thing: the Brisbane op-ed piece is a trial balloon preparing the liberal base in New York City to support hydraulic fracking in their state.  It may be the first bit -- and only bit -- of good news that the state treasurer has had in decades.

Back to 184 Active Drilling Rigs in North Dakota -- Ties All-Time Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here (the site is dynamic and the number changes, sometimes daily).

Again, if you want to see the location of oil wells in North Dakota, you can check out eser.

With a little sleuthing, one can find the active rigs on the GIS map server at the NDIC site.

This site will take you to all the locations of the Cyclone rigs.

Idle Rambling -- The Effect of That 2,500-Bed Man-Camp On Williston -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The distance from Tioga, North Dakota, to Williston, North Dakota, is slightly less than 50 miles, forty-five minutes, maybe less.

The distance from Tioga, North Dakota, to Minot, North Dakota, is slightly more than 80 miles, an hour and a half. To get to Minot, from Tioga, one goes through Stanley, a bit more than 30 miles away.

One cannot get to Watford City, North Dakota, from Tioga, except via Williston, the shortest route, or through Stanley, a very long circuitous route.

I think about those distances when I think of the new 2,500-bed man-camp coming to Tioga. The population of Tioga was 1,230 in the 2010 census, and that was probably a bit inflated due to the oil activity (by inflated, I mean, the population would have been lower had their been no oil boom).

There is minimal "entertainment" opportunities in Tioga. There is no commercial airport. Amtrak does not stop at Tioga.

Men in the oil patch work very long hours and work very, very hard. The men living in the new Tioga man-camp won't have much free time, but when they have free time, I assume they will spend it in two places: at Williston food and drink establishments, and at the Williston airport.

In the "old days" the roughnecks "worked on; off two." They were in the field for two weeks, and then had two weeks off. Some of that will change with the man-camps. If the period of time in the field is extended (it certainly won't be decreased), they will spend more time in Williston, and will still continue to fly home when they have at least five days off.

Many Willistonites drive to Bismarck to catch "charter" flights to Las Vegas, "charter" in the sense that the flights are made very economical due to their very nature: full flights; non-stop, round trips. I wouldn't be surprised that once the regional airlines sort out the common destination in Texas / Louisiana for the roughnecks, Williston might see similar "charter" flights to let's say, Houston, or Dallas, or Baton Rouge, possibly New Orleans.  

By the way, not exactly midway, but cutting off a bit of travel time into Williston, will be the new 720-acre industrial park north of Williston. Something tells me the surrounding area is going to be extensively developed.

For Investors Only: CarboCeramics and ONEOK Both Increased Dividends Recently -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

2,500-Bed Man-Camp Breaks Ground at Tioga -- Population: 1,230 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Maybe the state reps from Minot will now understand why Tioga received $8 million in oil impact money from the state. See comment here. The population of Tioga in the 2010 census was 1,230. This man-camp alone will triple the size of the town. Other comments: here and here.

Link here. 

When it comes to a project, Managing Partner and Senior Project Manager Randy Baker of Capital Oilfield Services likes to think big.

Work on the largest man camp in Williams County, and perhaps the state, began Friday with a ceremonial groundbreaking at the future Capital Lodge site outside of Tioga.

Capital Lodge will have a maximum capacity of 2,500 upon completion. The lodge is expected to open Oct. 1.

This is a huge story with great graphics; too bad it's a regional link which is likely to break early.

In case the link is broken, I have included a snippet from one of the links above:

City officials from Dickinson, Williston and Minot each gave presentations Thursday to the Board of University and School Lands. All emphasized their need for help from the state and that their requests were a fraction of what the needs are.

Sen. Karen Krebsbach, R-Minot, said funding for the large cities should be distributed equally, not according to a “gentleman’s agreement” to give approximately 57 percent to Williston, 28 percent to Dickinson and 14 percent to Minot.

To me, this speaks volumes.

For Investors Only: Update on the Marathon Upstream / Downstream Split -- Effective July 1, 2011 -- Dividend Initiated -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The original story here, January 13, 2011.

Upstream: Marathon Oil. Stock ticker remains the same: MRO.

Downstream: Marathon Petroleum -- now the nation's 5th largest refiner. One share of the new company (Marathon Petroleum) for every two shares of Marathon Oil. Stock ticker: MPC. Began trading on the NYSE July 1, 2011. Rated a BUY by Citigroup right out of the chute. Initiates dividend of 20 cents, payable September 12, if held on August 19.

Marathon Oil would continue to hold the company's exploration and production business and its Canadian oil sands operations, while Marathon Petroleum Corp would include its six refining plants, pipeline transportation and the Speedway gas station chain.

Truck Manufacturers Ramping Up Production -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

A truck manufacturer on the west coast is ramping up production. I don't have a link but a very reliable source says the company has told blue-collar workers to start expecting an opportunity for more overtime later this summer. In addition, the company just completed a recent new hire exercise. I can't provide the name of the company, but a truck manufacturer that fits the geographic location is here.

This was predicted back in November, 2010.

North American commercial truck production may climb as much as 56 percent in 2011 as owners refresh the oldest U.S. fleet in at least 31 years, boosting sales at Paccar Inc. and partsmakers such as Columbus-based Cummins Inc.

Output of Class 8 trucks, the workhorses of interstate hauling, may reach as many as 235,000 units in the U.S., Canada and Mexico next year from an estimated 151,000 in 2010, said Kenny Vieth, partner at market forecaster ACT Research Co.

Rising freight rates and volumes are helping rekindle demand after the worst recession since the Great Depression. A 2006 production surge to a record 376,448 units before new U.S. emissions rules took effect helped create a glut heading into the economic slump, leaving some trucks parked for two years.

Folks can come up with their own ideas why this is happening, but I think a significant reason has to do with mining and oil exploration in North America.

I cannot even begin to quantify the increase in trucks in the Bakken around Williston, but then multiply this by fields in the Marcellus, Niobrara (Colorado/Wyoming), the Mississippi Lime (Kansas/Oklahoma) and the Eagle Ford (south Texas).

I just completed a stand-along post on all the trucking that will be required when EOG's fracking sand plant in Wisconsin opens later this year.

Fracking Sand -- EOG -- Wisconson -- West Coast Truck Manufacturer Ramping Up Production -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Updates

April 10, 2013: a reader sent me this link, noting that a "Fracking Sand 101" conference was hosted in La Crosse, WI, yesterday. 

A basic introduction to everything frac sand mining was held in La Crosse Tuesday. It was Frac Sand 101 at the Radisson.
A community resource educator touched on the growing industry, what's drawing sand mine operations to the region, and some of the precautions that are in place.
Right now, there are several mining operations in the area while some counties have moratoriums and other protections in place to stop the expansion.

If anyone has any interesting "takeaways" from this conference, please feel free to send them in. 

Original Post

The site gets a lot of requests and a lot of searches regarding fracking sand.

Don alerted me to a BusinessWeek story that came out Friday, dated July 28, 2011, regarding EOG's fracking sand operations in Wisconsin.

Since Texas oil producer EOG Resources (EOG) arrived in Ken Schmitt’s Wisconsin farming community last year, the cattle breeder has marveled each time he drives by the company’s work site on his way into town. It’s not oil rigs that capture his attention. “They got one hellacious pile of sand out there,” he says.

The rolling hills surrounding Chippewa County (pop. 60,000) in the northwest part of the state sit atop a deep deposit of a type of pure quartz sand coveted by the oil industry. The sand is used as part of the water and chemical mixture injected under high pressure into wells to crack oil-infused shale rock in a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. The tiny grains of sand serve as wedges to prop the cracks open so oil and natural gas can flow up the well. With prices for frack sand soaring, oil companies such as EOG have begun mining their own in places such as rural Wisconsin.

The Chippewa Herald posts a very long update on this new plant; the story is dated yesterday, July 29, 2011.

The town of Howard has signed a developer’s agreement with EOG Resources LLC for operation of a sand mine.

The agreement, approved Wednesday by the town board, runs through Dec. 31, 2031.

The pact took 14 months of negotiations between Howard (Chippewa County) and the company, and has a property value guarantee for property owners near the mine.

And it includes a stipulation that no mining, blasting or hauling from the site will be done for nearly half of the year, from May 1 through Oct. 15.

The town said the agreement is the first of its kind for the operation of a non-metallic frac sand mine in Wisconsin.

Looks like another shovel-ready job. Every time I read these stories I think of the resource-rich country we live in. Fracking sand, by the way, is not likely to be outsourced overseas. In addition to the plant itself, this will generate many, many jobs for truck manufacturers and drivers.
Speaking of which, I heard from a reliable source that a truck manufacturing plant on the west coast is ramping up production. They've told their blue-collar workers to start expecting more overtime, and the company has just concluded a round of new hires.

And yes, we need to develop it appropriately so that we do not destroy our country's natural beauty nor endanger our quality of life.

Meanwhile, a second company is looking to open a fracking sand mine in Wisconsin. 

A second sand company is interested in opening a sand processing plant in New Auburn.

Another sand company, Superior Silica Sand, also wants a sand processing plant in New Auburn. It plans on mining in the town of Arland in Barron County.

The village of New Auburn is in both Chippewa and Barron counties.

Theme Song For The Federal Government -- Debt Ceiling Crisis -- Gnarls Barkley -- Crazy -- Just Knew Too Much -- Everybody Knows The Boat is Leaking -- Everybody Knows The Captain Lied -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Everybody Knows, Leonard Cohen

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded,
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed,
Everybody knows that the war is over,
Everybody knows the good guys lost,
Everybody knows the fight was fixed,
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich,
That's how it goes.

Everybody knows the boat is leaking,
Everybody knows the captain lied,
Everybody knows this broken feeling,
Like their father or their dog just died.

Running commentary of the "debt crisis" can be found here.



Crazy, Gnarls Barkley

And when you are out there without care,
Yeah, I was out of touch.
But it wasn't because I didn't know enough,
I just knew too much.

But, does that make me crazy?

And I hope that you are
Having the time of your life.
But think twice,
That's my only advice.

Come on now, who  do you
Really think you are?
Bless your soul,
You really think you're in control.

Well, I think you're crazy,
I think you're crazy,
I think you're crazy,
Just like me.

My heroes had the heart
To lose their lives out on a limb
But I think you're crazy,
Just like me.

Scallion Member of the Lodgepole Formation -- -- Whiting and Continental Both Have Interests -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Updates

March 13, 2012: Whiting testing the Scallion formation in the far southwest corner of North Dakota, just north of Beach. 

Original Post

In its 2Q11 conference call, Whiting mentioned the Scallion member of the Lodgepole formation, saying that they were interested in that play, and will be drilling additional exploratory wells targeting the Scallion.

Whiting also refers to the Scallion as the "false Bakken" or the "Scallion interval." I blogged about that almost exactly one year ago.

Back in January, 2010, Continental Resources announced a non-economic well in the Scallion, but felt the zone still had potential:

Continental Resources Inc., Enid, Okla., said an initial test of a horizontally drilled section of Scallion limestone in west-central North Dakota produced at an uneconomic 7-day rate of 65 b/d and plans no further drilling at present. 
 
Scallion, a lower member of the Lodgepole formation of Mississippian age, lies at 9,500 ft just above the Upper Bakken shale.

The company drilled one lateral in the Scallion leg with a multistage plug-perf style frac.
  
Continental Resources plans to monitor activity by other operators in this part of the play before drilling more test wells. Scallion has produced oil since the 1960s from about 2,000 ft in the North Virden pool in Manitoba. 

The Scallion has produced oil since the 1960's (mainly in Manitoba, about a 100 miles north of this area in North Dakota, but they've all been vertical (conventional) wells. Whiting now plans to test the Scallion with horizontal wells.

From the Q&A portion of the Whiting 2Q11 conference call regarding the Scallion:

[The Scallion is] definitely a resource play, you'll find it very similar to the Bakken. It's a great source rock by any standard. You can compare it to any of the other things that we're doing right now so. But it is a swing for the fence, there. What we're really trying to do is demonstrate the presence of reservoir rock and therefore, OOIP, and there's very little information out there. So we got a lot of what we call acorns in that part of the world, that kind of 2 or 3 county area that are all vertical wells that have produced oil out of the Scallion, and so that's one of the big things we go by. And so we're going to try it with a modern horizontal, and see how that works for us, and a lot of running room.

Week 30: July 23 -- July 29, 2011

H&P Rigs

Evidence That EOG Is Throwing In the Towel on the Spearfish

Chesapeake Ramping Up in Utica, Ohio, Huge Story

Chesapeake's Utica: Huge

Video of Oil Unit Train, Williston, North Dakota

Tidbits From Whiting's 2Q11 Conference Call

Samson Oil and Gas Closes on 20,000 Acres in Montana's Williston Bakken

Tioga Gets $8 Million in Impact Funds From the State

Video of Oil Truck Driving Into the Bear Den

Whiting's Huge 2Q11 -- Conference Call

Fracking: Backlog in the Bakken

Mountainview Adds Interest in the Bakken

Fertile Valley Oil Field Update

Photograph of Cyclone 18 Fire

Mishap on Cyclone 18

Hampton Inn and Suites To Build Across From Mercy Hospital, Williston, North Dakota

Enbridge's Beaver Lodge Loop Project Remains on Schedule

CO2 EOR In Wyoming

July's Director's Cut (NDIC)

CHK Conference Call -- Overview of Several Plays -- Oklahoma to Ohio; Very Candid About The Bakken

Note: the editors of the New York Times need to listen to the Chesapeake conference call -- the folks who said the natural gas industry in the US was a sham and set up for failure. They especially need to read about Buffalo Creek 1-17 (see below) which has paid for itself 37x over.

The Chesapeake conference call was one of the  more exciting and surprising conference calls I've heard in awhile -- this is how it started:

Because the quarter progressed quite smoothly, operationally and financially, I will focus my comments on providing an update on 4 of our best liquids plays, about which you haven't heard much from us until now. These 4 would be the Mississippi Lime play in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas; the Cleveland and Tonkawa tight sand plays in the Anadarko Basin of western Oklahoma and last, but certainly not least, the Utica Shale play in eastern Ohio.

Some data points:

• Mississippi Lime: huge play in western Oklahoma, 1.1 million net acres; pedal to the metal in 1H12
• Cleveland / Tonkawa: also in the Anadarko Basin of western Oklahoma, 720,000 net acres; CHK has most of it to itself; discovered in 2008
• Buffalo Creek 1-17, one of the 6 most productive gas wells ever drilled in Oklahoma; has paid out its capital investment more than 37x since it was drilled
• CHK now operates 4 of the 6 largest gas wells every drilled in Oklahoma
• Anadarko and Permian are the two premier liquids-focused basins in the US at the present time; CHK owns > 2 million net acres of leasehold in the Anadarko; 720,000 acres prospective for the Cleveland/Tonkawa
• EURs: 600,000 bbls/well with development costs of ~ $12/barrels (you do the math)
• Currently 16 rigs in these plays; will increase to 25 - 30 in next few years; 160-acre spacing
• Therefore: up to 4,400 net Cleveland/Tonkawa wells; 2 billion bbls of unrisked oil equivalent
• These two plays (Cleveland/Tonkawa): primary drivers of CHK surging lease liquids production 
• Utica: confirmed market rumors that CHK has discovered a major new liquids-rich discovery in the Utica Shale of eastern Ohio

From the transcript:

Importantly, we're the only company that has drilled a producing horizontal Utica Shale well in Ohio.

Economically, the Utica looks similar, but is likely superior to the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The similarity is that we expect the Utica to have 3 phases: a dry gas phase on the eastern side of the play, a wet gas phase in the middle and an oil phase on the western side. Their difference is that we believe the Utica will be economically superior to the Eagle Ford because of the quality of the rock and the location of the asset.

CHK estimates of the Utica: $15 to $20 billion for CHK shareholders

CHK was very, very candid about the Bakken -- and hints at what CHK might do in the Bakken -- see the transcript's Q&A

Chesapeake -- Drilling Cheaper WIth Own RIgs -- Others Noticing? -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

From today's (July 29, 2011) conference call with Chesapeake:

Jeffrey Robertson - Barclays Capital
And then secondly, on the rig increases that you outlined, Aubrey. Can you talk about how much of that is or would be supplied by redirecting gas rigs you all currently own, or do you all need to build new rigs? Or do you have enough with Bronco to meet most of your needs in -- or -- over the next several years?
Aubrey McClendon
Yes, good question, Jeff. We typically set out to be able to meet about 2/3 of our drilling needs by our own fleet. So today -- Steve, we have 115? So we are at 115 and we're drilling with 168 rigs, 167, whatever the number is. So we're probably a little short of the 67% mark. So over time, we'll continue to add rigs as we have in the past, and I think we'll probably end up doing those organically. I think since we bought Bronco, the Rowan wet rigs went through much more than what we paid for the Bronco rigs, and we think probably, organically, it's the best way to do that. So we'll continue to add, but I don't think it's anything spectacular. But we do -- I would move you back to Nick's comment that on a recent analysis of our wells in the Eagle Ford, we can drill about 20% cheaper than others in the industry when we integrate our services. One other thing we haven't talked about this morning, but just to alert everybody, we will roll out, on October 1, the first parts of our initial 250,000-horsepower fracture pressure pumping fleet, and so we'll be pumping our first wells in the first couple of weeks of October. So another way we are addressing oilfield inflation, and we'll do that through additional rigs, we'll do it through more horsepower. Remember, we need about probably 1 million horsepower a day. And so that would give us the opportunity to build a pretty significant pressure pumping fleet over time.

That Q&A reminded me of this posting back in April, 2011, in which CHK announced that it had bought Bronco Drilling as part of its program noted above in the Q&A.

I normally wouldn't think much about that except for the fact that there are dots to connect with regard to Pride Energy -- Cyclone  -- Continental Resources.

When CHK says they drill about 20% cheaper than others in the industry when they integrate their services, Harold Hamm has to be listening. As well as other big producers in the Bakken.  

Drilling Rig Manufacturer Announces Two Contracts; To Build 32 New Rigs -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

HP: beats estimates; revenue up 33 percent; contracts for 12 new rigs earlier this month; with earnings announcement, announced contracts for 20 more new rigs; transcript.

I don't own shares in HP.

Four (4) New Permits -- Update on EOG Spearfish Wells in Bottineau County -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, July 29, 2011 --

Operators: Slawson, Crescent Point Energy, Hunt Oil, and MBI Oil and Gas

Fields: Gooseneck, Ross, and two wildcats.

I had not heard of MBI before; they do have a small presence in North Dakota, but this is their permit in quite some time.

Slawson and MBI have the two wildcats, one in McKenzie and one in Stark.


EOG / Spearfish Formation / Bottineau County

Fueling more rumors that EOG has thrown in the towel with regard to the Spearfish, the daily activity report listed six EOG permits in Bottineau County that were believed to target the Spearfish. In addition, six additional EOG wells changed operator from EOG to Surge Energy. 

Other permits canceled:

• #18070 – Zavanna, LLC., Leopard 1-20H., SESE 20-155N-100W, Williams Co.
  #18133 – Zavanna, LLC., Panther 1-16H., SESE 16-155N-100W, Williams Co.
• #19234 – OXY USA, Steve Kudrna 1-32-29H-143-95, SWSE 32-143N-95W, Dunn Co.
• #20299 – OXY USA Inc., Tony Kralicek 1-5-8H-142-95. SWSE 32-143N-95W, Dunn Co.
  #20955 – Continental Resources, Inc., Burr 1-19H., SWSE 19-157N-97W, Williams Co.
  #21049 – North Plains Energy, LLC., Miller 4-14-1H., NWNW 14-157N-97W, Williams Co.
  #21144 – Petro Harvester Operating Co, LLC., Rice 13X., NESW 9-161N-82W, Bottineau Co.
  #20557 – EOG Resources, Inc., Liberty 24-2531W., SWNW 25-151N-91W, Mountrail Co.

Of the eleven new wells that are confidential, but plugged or producing, Whiting, CLR, and MRO each had two.

Update on 33 Wells That Reported DRL Status in 2Q11 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

From the NDIC website:

Of the wells (too many to count) that came off the confidential list in 2Q11, may of them were in DRL status. Periodically I go back and update those. I just completed updating 33 wells that were in "DRL" status when they came off the confidential list.

You can see the updated list here. I won't list them here, unless someone is interested.

The IPs were all typical Bakken IPs, around 1,000 bopd (IP) with a range of 750 to 1,200, generally. There were outliers, of course.

Two of the outliers:

• 19435, 2,836, BEXP, L. Tufto 7-6 1H, Wildcat, Bakken
• 19868, 2,541, BEXP, A. Tufto 18-19 1H, Cow Creek, Bakken

I believe both wells sit on the same pad; one horizontal goes south into Cow Creek, and one horizontal goes north.  Cow Creek is northeast of Williston.

Update on 36 Wells in DRL Status in the North Dakota Oil Patch -- A Gusher Among Them? -- Dakota-3's Mandaree 30-31H -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

From the NDIC website:

Of the 74 wells that have come off the confidential list so far this quarter (3Q11), 36 are in "DRL" status.

This means that they are waiting to be completed. In most cases, that means waiting to be fracked. Operators are allowed to keep wells on DRL status for 30 days after the wells have been completed.

Since my last update, similar subject, the following were reported in DRL status when they came off the confidential list, and have now reported IPs:

• 20026, 1,355, Zenergy, Nordeng 24-13H, Banks, Bakken
• 19403, 701, CLR, Vachal 1-27H, Alkali Creek, Bakken
• 20011, 949, Petro-Hunt, Sovig 150-100-22C-15-1H, Arnegard, Bakken
• 17979, 706, Zavanna, Lynx 1-27H, Stony Creek, Bakken 

What about some of the others?

Because they have come off the confidential list, some have provided production data. Again, these have probably been fracked (but not necessarily) and are still within the 30-day window.

• 19671, DRL, SM, Lampert 13-24H, West Ambrose, Bakken, 30K in first three months; this should be a nice well
• 19773, DRL, Petro-Hunt, Producer's Corporation 159-94-17C-8-2H, North Tioga, Bakken, cumulative, 8,000 bbls in first 23 days
• 19885, DRL, Hess, Tattu 19-1H, Elk, Bakken, 30K in about two months; this should be a good well
• 20224, DRL, Hess, Klose 24-1H, Glass Bluff, Bakken, 26K in first two months, including 14K in 29 days in May, 2011; this should be a great well
• 19345, DRL, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Bakken; 17K in 18 days in June, 2011; this should be a great well
• 19510, DRL, Hess, Helland 15-19H, Ray, Bakken; 13K in 9 days in June, 2011; a great well

But is this the big one? Is this a gusher? Is this going to be a great well?

• 19603, DRL, Dakota-3, Dakota-3 Mandaree 30-31H, Reunion Bay, Bakken. This is a WMB company. Remember them? Bought 7 percent of the mineral rights in the reservation. The operator reported .... drum roll ... 25,672 bbls of oil in 24 days in May, 2011.

By the way, for newbies, none of these wells are particularly exceptional for Bakken wells. In addition, they will have a significant decline rate. But if you want to see how "big" these wells are, listen to the 2Q11 WLL conference call to get an overview of the Bakken by extrapolating that company's results.

Chesapeake: Ramping Up From Five Rigs Now To 40 Rigs by 2014 in the Utica -- Huge Story -- Competition With The Bakken for Dollars, Manpower, Equipment

I printed this earlier, but it was near the end of another post, and I'm not sure how many folks read to the end of some of my longer postings, so this is too important to be lost among the thousands of postings to date. 

The Utica is likely to be "bigger" than the Eagle Ford for Chesapeake, but the company needs a lot of cash to develop it.

Based on 2 years of proprietary petrophysical and engineering research, McClendon expects the Utica play “will be economically superior to the Eagle Ford shale” in South Texas for his company.

Chesapeake’s data on the Utica includes 2,000 well logs and petrophysical data on 200 wells.

Chesapeake has 1.25 million net leasehold acres in the Ohio Utica where it is running five operated rigs. The company expects to have eight Utica rigs by the end of 2011, 16-20 rigs by yearend 2012, and 40 rigs by yearend 2014. McClendon said Chesapeake has spent $1.5-2 billion on leases there and continues to acquire more acreage.

McClendon said Chesapeake is seeking a joint venture partner or other financial alternatives for its Utica operations. “Any solution will have upfront cash,” he said.

The story is important for (at least) two reasons.

Shovel-ready jobs; it's a pity the administration cannot embrace the energy resources of this country.

The Utica, along with the Niobrara, the Eagle Ford, the Haynesville, the Marcellus, will all compete with the Bakken for resources (dollars, skilled manpower, and equipment).

For investors only: for those folks worried about increased taxes on oil companies, one may want to think about HP. Just saying. I do not own shares in either CHK or HP.

I completely liquidated everything two days ago and bought gold.









Just kidding.

Like GE, Another Medical Gadget Maker Moves to China -- Not a Bakken Story -- However There Is a Bakken Connection

Earlier this week I posted the story that the nation's economic czar was moving his health care unit headquarters to China, it now appears another medical gadget maker is following suit.

Boston Scientific Corp.  said yesterday that it plans to eliminate 1,200 to 1,400 jobs worldwide during the next 2 1/2 years to free money for new investments, the Natick medical device maker’s second major round of cuts since last year.

The company would not say how many jobs will be lost in Massachusetts, where fewer than 2,000 of its 25,000 employees are based. In February 2010, Boston Scientific said it would pare 1,300 jobs worldwide, but similarly did not say where.

Yesterday’s move, a day after Boston Scientific disclosed it was investing $150 million and hiring 1,000 people in China, raised fears that the company will gradually shift more work to foreign sites with less government oversight and lower costs than the United States.

One can argue that this was likely to occur without ObamaCare but there is significant suspicion that medical oversight, scrutiny, bureaucratic regulations, costs, taxes, etc., associated with ObamaCare are hastening these moves overseas. In fact, for some, it was predictable. Flashback: tax on medical devices is a jobs killer. 

That much of the story was interesting. The paragraph that caught my attention, however, was this:

“I’ve asked for information on where they are cutting jobs,’’ said state Senator James B. Eldridge, an Acton Democrat. 

“My sense is, sadly, that like many other American companies, they are shedding jobs in Massachusetts and adding jobs overseas,’’ Eldridge said. “And this is a company making greater profits, so it’s even more outrageous.’’

This is evidence that Washington simply does not "get it."

Companies don't hang around just because their profits are growing. GE's profits are REALLY growing and they are moving their health care unit to China.

Companies are always looking for ways to make greater profits. And moving from a high-tax state like Massachusetts to China appears to be one way to make greater profits. The nation's economic adviser, as noted above, is doing just that.

Now for the connection to the Bakken. With the increased profits that "Big Oil" is making in general, and independents are making in the Bakken, there is increased talk of increased taxes on oil companies. In fact, President Obama consistently names three entities he wants to see taxed more: corporate jets (yes, that's hard to believe), oil companies (in general, he does not say "Big Oil"), and those making more than $250,000/year (which represents mostly small business which makes up major part of employment, along with medium-sized businesses, here in the US).

I don't have the link, and I may have misread it, or misunderstood, but scouring internet for news today, I read that oil companies will move elsewhere if they don't make 50% profit. I don't now what that means specifically, and I don't know what was meant by "profit," but the point was that oil companies will move their attention where business climates are more favorable.

Right now, there is a huge competition for resources (dollars, manpower, equipment) for drillers in the Bakken, the Niobrara, the Eagle Ford, the Marcellus, and now the Utica.

Just saying.

CHK Conference Call -- Incredible -- The Confirmation of a Huge Liquids Discovery in Utica is Huge -- Not A Bakken Story

The conference call is available now at: http://web.servicebureau.net/conf/meta?i=1113298295&c=2343&m=was&u=/w_ccbn.xsl&date_ticker=CHK.

It's been my experience that these archived conference calls are difficult to find after a few days; you may want to listen to it as soon as possible.

The early comments explain why Jim Cramer is so bullish on CHK.

I do not hold shares in CHK so I have no dog in this fight. Nevertheless, it is very, very exciting.

Listening to this conference call, and recalling a story that Venezuela oil reserves are now larger than Saudi Arabia's reserves suggest to me, that with regard to energy, that this decade (2011 - 2021) will be all about the western hemisphere as Saudi's role falls.

Data points:

• Venezuela reserves exceed those of Saudi Arabia.
• Mideast conflict likely to worsen this decade.
• Canadian oil sands. Oil will probably go to China when US stops the Keystone XL.
• Bakken, Niobrara, Eagle Ford.
• Brazil. 
• CHK's major discovery in Ohio.
• EOR in Texas.

The Utica is likely to be "bigger" than the Eagle Ford for Chesapeake, but the company needs a lot of cash to develop it.

Based on 2 years of proprietary petrophysical and engineering research, McClendon expects the Utica play “will be economically superior to the Eagle Ford shale” in South Texas for his company.

Chesapeake’s data on the Utica includes 2,000 well logs and petrophysical data on 200 wells.

Chesapeake has 1.25 million net leasehold acres in the Ohio Utica where it is running five operated rigs. The company expects to have eight Utica rigs by the end of 2011, 16-20 rigs by yearend 2012, and 40 rigs by yearend 2014. McClendon said Chesapeake has spent $1.5-2 billion on leases there and continues to acquire more acreage.

McClendon said Chesapeake is seeking a joint venture partner or other financial alternatives for its Utica operations. “Any solution will have upfront cash,” he said.

Shovel-ready jobs; it's a pity the administration cannot embrace the energy resources of this country.

Update on the Gulf Permitorium -- LIFTED! Oh, Never Mind, It's The Cubans That Are Drilling 70 Miles Off Florida -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here.

Sometime over the next three months, if all goes according to plan, Cuban workers on a Chinese-built, Spanish-owned rig will start drilling for oil in the mile-deep waters just off the north coast of Cuba, 70 miles from the Florida Keys.

Because of the embargo, U.S. companies cannot drill in Cuba, supply equipment to Cuba, have any say over safety regulations in Cuba, or even take part in helping control a blowout and spill in Cuba. As the island prepares to begin offshore drilling, it has signed contracts with oil companies from Brazil, India, Italy, Russia, and Spain—and is in talks to lease major portions of its coastal water to Chinese companies (continuing China’s pattern of pursuing oil exploration in countries where U.S. drillers aren’t welcome).

Under the embargo’s terms, the oil drilling and safety equipment used by those companies must be less than 10 percent U.S.-made. But all of the most technologically advanced equipment for drilling and preventing or stopping oil spills is made in the United States or by U.S. companies.

Something tells me I will be updating this post next summer. I hope it's not about the oil-fouled Florida beaches.

At 183 Rigs Today, One Short to Tie the 184 Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here. It is also permanently linked at the sidebar on the right, under data, "active rigs."

Great Article on Bowman, North Dakota -- The Oil Patch -- Another Perspective -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

On a day when there is only bad economic and political news (no one is writing about the wars any more, by the way, have you noticed?), I was happy to find this article which was published a couple of weeks ago.

It's a regional link and it may not be available on the net for long but it's there today and it's a nice article to read. It's was written by Deena Winter who grew up in Bowman; it looks like she is a good 20 years younger than I but her experiences mirror mine, growing up in Williston in the 1950s and 60s. I guess North Dakota changes slowly (until now).

Growing up in Bowman, North Dakota, the only time I saw oil wells was when our family drove 50 minutes west to see our cousins in Baker, Montana.

I’d look out the windows at those black hammer-like pumpers grinding up and down, up and down, up and down and wonder how they pulled black gold from the ground, and where the oil went, and how rich the landowners were.

Deena drove 50 miles west to see oil wells in Baker, Montana. Our family drove 50 miles east to see oil wells in Tioga, North Dakota.

I would like to "cut and paste" the entire story, but cannot, and appropriately so. But it bothers me that good writing like Deena Winter's on a subject dear to my heart (North Dakota) can be so easily lost.

The video is unrelated to oil, but something the Bowman folks might enjoy. I certainly did.

Bowman High School Rodeo, 2011

"Don't Blow It" -- The Lost Decade -- No Clue -- "Soft Patch" -- Not a Bakken Story -- Warning: Highly Graphic

Updates

April 28, 2016: we've hit a "soft patch" again. 

August 3, 2011: Signs of a double-dip recession have emerged -- Meredith Whitney, anaylst. CNBC considers her highly credible.

August 2, 2011: the "double dip" recession has begun, as reported by the president's cable news station, MSNBC.

July 29, 2011: This update is being written just as the government reported a most anemic GDP number: 1.3.   But even scarier, if that's possible: 1Q11 GDP was revised to 0.4 -- almost a contraction in growth.

This is another update to the June 19, 2011, posting.

I think the June 22, 2011, update was particularly prescient, when I wrote: When government officials start using the phrase "a soft patch" on a more regular basis, one can assume that experts acknowledge there is a better than 50/50 chance that we will fall into a double-dip recession. My hunch is that if we fall back into a recession we will not know it until about six months after the fact.

I wrote, "we will not know it until about six months after the fact." Today: The Commerce Department data on Friday also showed the current lull in the economy began earlier than had been thought, with the growth losing steam late last year. 

I posted then: "Brutally honest, Bernanke admitted that he had no clue what was actually causing the current fragility in the U.S. economic recovery." Today: That raised questions on the long held view by both Federal Reserve officials and independent economists that the slowdown in growth this year was mostly due to transitory factors. Same source. 

Today, Peggy Noonan, perhaps the best Presidential speechwriter ever, and the best pundit bar none, writes: So he is losing a battle in which he had superior forces—the presidency, the U.S. senate. In the process he revealed that his foes have given him too much mystique. He is not a devil, an alien, a socialist. He is a loser. And this is America, where nobody loves a loser. 

So, back to the original post: what the President has called a "bump in the road" appears to be the beginning of another lost decade. But this time it's different. It could have been avoided had the President studied the history of the first lost decade. 

Speaking of prescient: "Now, don't blow it." Those were the words Michelle Obama told her husband following her introduction of him at the 2004 Democratic Primary Convention …when she said to him as she passed him while she was walking off stage.

By the way, my favorite company, Apple Corp, now has more cash on hand than the US government. Several sources have pointed out that the US government has $74 billion cash on hand; Apple has $76 billion. And we are nowhere closer to ending the debate on the debt ceiling. I wonder if the president has golf scheduled for the weekend.

By the way, when we fall back into a recession, everyone will refer to it as a double dip; in fact enough time has passed since the first one that this one will be entirely owned by the current administration.
 
June 22, 2011: The comments to this article are very interesting. Iit is very, very scary that the Fed chairman was unable to instill any confidence in the investing community. It is clear that he sees a second lost decade, and most of it revolves around lack of a sound energy policy.

Brutally honest, Bernanke admitted that he had no clue what was actually causing the current fragility in the U.S. economic recovery.  While the FOMC statement assigned blame outside of the U.S., pointing at Japan along with rising food and oil prices, Bernanke was put on the spot by a reporter who noted the inconsistency behind that explanation and a lowering of long term forecasts.  Bernanke took the hit, admitting only some of the factors were temporary and that he didn’t know exactly what was causing the slowdown, but that it would persist.  “Growth,” said Bernanke, “will return into 2012.”

June 22, 2011: I think everyone agrees that the phrase "hitting a bit of a soft patch" right now with regards to the economy is being voiced/heard more and more frequently (if any doubts, google "soft patch"). One of the most important things a government can do is keep people calm, doing what it can to prevent panic. Panic can lead to anarchy (something about which the Greeks need to be most concerned right now). To maintain calm, the government will gradually prepare its citizens for worse news yet to come, but in a gradual manner. When government officials start using the phrase "a soft patch" on a more regular basis, one can assume that experts acknowledge there is a better than 50/50 chance that we will fall into a double-dip recession. My hunch is that if we fall back into a recession we will not know it until about six months after the fact. All incumbent administrations would do their best to manage the timing of announcing the onset of a recession. 

June 22, 2011: Mort Zuckerman, US News (& World Report): Unemployment situation is worse than it looks.

The Great Recession has now earned the dubious right of being compared to the Great Depression. In the face of the most stimulative fiscal and monetary policies in our history, we have experienced the loss of over 7 million jobs, wiping out every job gained since the year 2000. From the moment the Obama administration came into office, there have been no net increases in full-time jobs, only in part-time jobs. This is contrary to all previous recessions. Employers are not recalling the workers they laid off from full-time employment.

And based on the administration's animosity toward oil, gas, and mining, it sounds like there is no urgency to correct the situation. Years ago, US News & World Report was the most conservative of the big three (the others: Newsweek and Time Magazine). Based on the little I have seen of Mort Zuckerman on television, he seems as liberal, or at least as somewhat left of center, as the rest of the mainstream media pundits. When the mainstream media starts calling the administration out on this issue, one car argue we are seeing the beginning of the end of this administration. Elsewhere it is being reported that 3 of 10 Americans will vote for Barack Obama in 2012.

Original Post

I have called the years 2000 - 2010 a lost decade, and have a "lost decade" tag.

I honestly thought we might turn the corner but I'm beginning to wonder. I'm not alone. From the (London) Financial Times:

The stalling of the US recovery raises big, scary questions. After a recession, this economy usually gets people back to work quickly. Not this time. Progress is so slow, the issue is not so much when America will return to full employment but what “full employment” will mean by the time it does. 

The administration thinks the pace of recovery will pick up soon. Last week President Barack Obama called the pause a “bump in the road." Others think the slowdown will persist and might get worse, fears that cannot be dismissed. One alarming possibility is that the traits the US has relied on to drive growth in the past – labour market flexibility, rapid productivity growth – might have become toxic. If the US is unlucky, traits seen as distinctive strengths are now weaknesses, and a “lost decade” of stagnation, like Japan’s in the 1990s, might lie ahead.

"Saddest" Story of the Day? -- Not a Bakken Story -- Books on Broadway -- Kathleen Norris -- And the Cattle at Richardton Abbey

Updates

December 23, 2013: Faces of the Bakken -- Chuck Wilder, Owner, Books on Broadway. 

Independent bookstore owner Chuck Wilder noticed a change in business four years ago when guys in Halliburton coveralls started coming into his shop.

Books on Broadway started getting new customers, including a more educated set of oilfield workers than previous oil booms had brought to Williston.

“These guys, they all have engineering degrees and they’re readers,” Wilder said.
The oil boom has been good for business in the downtown shop. Holiday sales are up this year, and the store can’t keep its top seller, “The Frackers” by Gregory Zuckerman, in stock.

Original Post

I spent a number of years in northern England in a previous life, and got to know the history of the monasteries there very, very well.  The monasteries were self-sufficient, raising crops, and raising sheep. I assume in some cases, also cattle, but I don't recall. Walking through the ruins one could imagine the monasteries before they were destroyed or decayed on their own.

Before ever visiting Yorkshire and the monasteries, I had read one or two books by Kathleen Norris, which added to my experience in northern England. Ms Norris would know the Assumption Abbey in Richardton, North Dakota, and she, too, probably feels a slight pang to read that the abbey is getting out of the cattle business (regional links break early).

As Brother Placid Gross walks the grounds surrounding the historic Assumption Abbey, he knows that one of the long-time traditions will soon be history.

Officials at the monastery have decided to do away with the cattle that have been there for over 100 years.

Gross has tended to the herd for 51 years and said he can still remember the days of raking hay with a team of horses.

There's not much else to say. I just find it kind of sad that the abbey could not continue with their cattle. Cattle have a way of suggesting calmness, and "everything is alright with the world." There is always at least one cow in every picture of the Christian manger.

I mentioned Kathleen Norris above. I really enjoyed her writing. The first book of hers I read, and it might have been her first, certainly it was her most well received book, was Dakota: A Spiritual Geography. The book was awarded "Notable Book" status by The New York Times. (By the way, of all print media, The New York Times is my favorite. If one realizes that the front page is part of the op-ed section, it is easier to enjoy. I was introduced to the newspaper in my sophomore year by the assistant wrestling coach at Williston High School who also taught social studies of some sort, perhaps "World Geography" if there was such a thing.  His last name started with an "R" and I'm blocking on it, but he, too, instilled in me a love for the news.)

Wow, I'm digressing.

Anyway, I highly recommend Kathleen Norris' Dakota: A Spiritual Geography. It provides a lot of insight into the character of the folks that were raised in this part of the world. Her second book was a bit too "religious" for me, The Cloister Walk. I never read The Virgin of Bennington. The last book of hers that I read was Acedia and Me which I discussed elsewhere. That is one of the most "open" books that an author can write. One gets the feeling that it was to be her last book; after writing a book like that I cannot imagine an author having the emotional energy to start another, much less finish. But one never knows, Kathleen Norris remains active, at least based on websites that I have not visited in awhile.

And as long as I'm digressing, speaking of insight into the character of the folks who settled this part of North Dakota, one of my favorite books is Prairie Peddlers: The Syrian-Lebanese in North Dakota. Any "reader" in western North Dakota, should have this book in his/her library. Maybe I will talk about it again, later. I've discussed it elsewhere before. You can find it at Books on Broadway, on Broadway, in Williston, North Dakota. [Update: The author is William C. Sherman. I see that the hardback copy is no longer available at Amazon.com; the book lists for $131.00. I probably paid about $49.00 for my hardback copy at Books on Broadway.]

ESER Is Back On-LIne -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Elsewhere it was noted that ESER is back on-line.

For newbies, try this: click on this link, and then using the tool on the left side of the Google map when you get to the size, ZOOM OUT (click on the "-" sign two or three times) and you will get a graphic display of the difference in the activity on the Sanish field (to the left) compared to the Parshall field (to the right). The Sanish field is "owned" by Whiting; the Parshall field is "owned" by EOG. It appears that much of the eastern half of the Parshall will not be all that productive, but the entire Sanish will be highly productive.  

I used to visit the ESER site periodically and then it seemed to disappear or limit accessibility, I forget, and gradually I lost interest.

But today, someone noted that ESER was back on-line.

The map of the Bakken looks like the opening credits of Bonanza, where the map of the west is burning, blazing, and the Cartwright brothers coming riding out. No Cartwright brothers at ESER but a burning map nonetheless.

Hopefully it stays up long enough for me to take some time with it.

Piece of trivia: there are very, very few ads on the front page of the LA Times website. ESER Oil and Gas Search is one of them.  [Noted on July 30, 2011.]

Video Of Oil Unit Train -- Williston -- Stanley -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I was sent this video a couple days ago from a friend who saw it on YouTube and I posted it elsewhere. Tonight I received a note from Mike who took the video and provided some background.

The train is empty. It is headed east out of Williston, North Dakota, on its way to Stanley, North Dakota, where it will be filled, and will then head to Cushing, Oklahoma. [If it's being filled in Stanley, I wonder if it's being filled at the EOG-facility?]

Here's the video, and below the story:


Empty oil train headed east out of Williston, North Dakota, headed to Stanley, North Dakota, where it will be filled, and then head to Cushing, Oklahoma. Stanley is about 70 miles east of Williston.

The designation of the train when it arrived was:

U-SAPSTN0-86T, arriving at Stanley 1236 07-03 

5020-FXE 4615+4612, 2-118-4151-7318'

The route it took: Oklahoma City -- Ark City -- Emporia -- Kansas City, KS -- Galesburg -- La Crosse -- Minneapolis -- Wilmar -- Aberdeen -- Hettinger -- Terry.

At that point, the train was to reverse direction, with 4612 on lead. Glendive -- Snowden -- Williston -- Stanley.

There is no wye at Terry. There is a loop at Stanley.

The train departing was designated:

U-STNSAP0-92T, departing Stanley 1055 07-04
5020-FXE 4615+4612, 114-0-14730-6962'

Mike says that DPU direction is not an issue. "Just yesterday [I] saw a list and AEI on a grain train going from Polo to Mexico. The train went from Polo to Eola and then via Mendota and Galesburg and further west. At Eola they had to change direction, and Aurora has no wye.

"Power should go right to El Paso, with one on the head end and two on the rear."

The key, Mike says, is to look at the first line of data.

Train symbol: U-SAPSTN0-86T.

• U: unit train.
• 86: 86th unit train of the year.
• SAPSTNO: simply station signs. SAP for some terminal in Oklahoma City and STN for Stanley [There is a "Sapalpa" just southwest of Tulsa].
• T: tank train.

Three locomotives: 5020-FXE 4615+4612.

• One locomotive on one end and two on the other.

Additional information: 2-118-4151-7318'.

• 2 loads (the hoppers most likely filled with sand for safety and protection for locomotives)
• 118 empties (the tank cars) (Mike thinks each tank car holds 714 bbls) --> 85,000 bbls/unit train
• 7,318 feet long (or about 1.4 miles long)

The route is self-explanatory. This unit train went through Minneapolis (empty), west to Wilmar, and on to the old Milwaukee main to the west coast (Aberdeen, SD). It then went on to Hettinger, ND, and into Montana at Terry.

From Terry it went north to Glendive, back to Williston and Stanley for loading.

*********************

One day when I was in Williston at Gramma Sharon's for lunch with my dad, I overheard a group of men discussing the routing of a train they were somehow involved in. The language they spoke was a dialect of American English I had never heard before. Now I know why. They lost me at U-SAPSTNO. (And I thought military acronyms were atrocious.)

*********************

The biggest kick I get out of this is to be able to learn that to date, there have been 86 unit trains, and to convert the length to miles. That's incredible. Some years ago there was a very interesting article in The New Yorker about how sophisticated train engines/computers had to be to manage to move a train that long, when part of it could be moving up hill, while part of it could be moving down hill.

*********************

And 118 tank cars with a couple of others adds up to 120 cars which my dad says he counted one day to see how many cars they put on these unit trains.