Japan Scrambles -- I'm Calling It A Night But Leaving Something On The Table For Tomorrow -- March 21, 2022

Link here.

Enerplus Has Another Nice Well In Eagle Nest -- March 21, 2022

This well is on a 12-well pad. 

The well:

• 22301, SI/NC-->SI/A, Enerplus / Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-3B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 193K 1/22;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	28	10905	11099	5871	19350	13815	1704
BAKKEN	12-2021	29	12916	12721	9009	18737	16885	1852
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	14520	14537	11066	21747	19049	2545
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23999	23939	12831	42918	34129	4804
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	25592	25709	8339	38079	30411	3209
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31608	31586	16561	38864	33199	3561
BAKKEN	7-2021	27	31950	32004	20584	33191	28921	4270
BAKKEN	6-2021	22	41192	40643	45859	41111	26643	13138
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

On that pad, a couple of older wells on AB list, but the oldest well was offline for almost two years. but is now back on line with a small but significant jump in production. This well plateaued at 1,800 bbls/month, in 3/19, then off line until 11/21 when its production jumped to 4,500 bbls/month where it remains as of 1/22;

The well:

• 18968, 875, Enerplus, Fort Berthold 148-95-22D-15-1H, Eagle Nest, t9/12; cum 326K 1/22;

WTI Monday Evening -- Trading Over $114 -- March 21, 2022

Oil:

• At the close today:
• Brent: up 8%; up $8.68; closed at $116.60.
• WTI: up 7.63%; up $8.00; closed at $112.70

• Later, after hours:
  
• 6:26 p.m. CT: WTI up another $1.20; now trading at $113.30.
• 7:10 p.m. CT: WTI at $113.60.
• 7:12 p.m. CT: WTI at $113.80
• 7:21 p.m. CT: WTI up $2.21, now trading at $114.30.

Oil Surges; It Feels "Real" This Time -- March 21, 2022

Buffett:

• cash hoard said to be about $147 billion at end of 2022.
  
• Alleghany deal: $12 billion
• will it be bought using that cash hoard or will the deal be financed?
• first large acquisition since 2015, Precision Castparts
  

Russian oil:

• earlier, some readers thought Russia would be a desirable source for oil
• I'm sure that's true; India is said be buying Russian oil at a discount
• but now a headline story that Saudi Arabia remains the lead supplier of oil for China
• it really is quite amazing; three countries supply the bulk of oil (Russia, Saudi Arabia, US)
• most agree that none of the three have significant "spare capacity"
• several countries with large demand for oil are releasing oil from their SPRs
• literally, overnight one of the "big three" (Russia) is cut off;
• everything will probably work out just fine if one's an optimist but one certainly gets the feeling this (the oil supply / demand ratio) could go sideways very easily, very quickly;
• it seems it wouldn't take much to really spook the already "tense" markets
• I think this is going to be absolutely fascinating
  

Oil:

• Brent: up 8%; up $8.68; closed at $116.60.
• WTI: up 7.63%; up $8.00; closed at $112.70
• Later, after hours:
• 6:26 p.m. CT: WTI up another $1.20; now trading at $113.30.
• 7:10 p.m. CT: WTI at $113.60.
• 7:12 p.m. CT: WTI at $113.80.
  

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$112.70	3/21/2022	03/21/2021	03/21/2020	03/21/2019	03/21/2018
Active Rigs	35	16	51	67	59

No new permits.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36210, 2,067, XTO Energy, FBIR 34X-25C, Heart Butte, minimal production;
  
• 36208, 3,103, XTO Energy, FBIR Baker 34X-25D, Heart Butte, minimal production;
• 38424, 60, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 6-10-03-100W-MGH-11, 

*********************
Older Wells On that XTO Baker Pad

The wells:

• 19292, t7/11; cum 238K 1/22; was taken off line 9/21; back on line 1/22 for two days;
  
• 23393, t1/13; cum 244K 1/22; was taken off line 9/21; back on line 122 for three days;
  
• 23394, t1/13, cum 278K 9/21 was taken off line 9/21; remains off line as of 1/22;
  
• 19293, t7/11, cum 404K 9/21; was taken off line 9/21; remains off line as of 1/22;
  
• 23395, t1/13; cum 260K 9/21; was taken off line 9/21; remains off line as of 1/22;
  

The WPX Spotted Wolf Wells In Eagle Nest -- Update -- March 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here. 

The wells:

• 37210, drl/NC-->AL/A, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HZ, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 276K 1/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	3152	3076	4802	4795	4223	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	4546	4634	6216	15437	14865	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	9057	9097	12154	28776	27927	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	11106	11094	13431	31799	30699	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	12126	12189	13916	22283	21224	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	8108	8104	10662	14404	13761	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	12729	12714	14887	30831	29910	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	14795	14851	16964	34155	31917	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	20774	20817	21424	40251	37303	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	21	14311	14215	16337	20531	18417	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	29	24295	24283	24316	35089	31652	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	21	18131	18154	19848	22830	20360	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	32480	32487	34367	41225	36591	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	29	35792	35802	42506	39979	35089	620
BAKKEN	11-2020	26	54182	53885	67665	49972	44174	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36953, drl/NC-->F/A, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HZ, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 257K 1/22;

• 36952, drl/NC-->F/A, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HD, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 266K 1/22;

Clearly, Better Wells In The Bakken Are Being Reported -- March 21, 2022

Coming off confidential list today:

• 36867, drl/A, CLR, LCU Truman 11-23H, Long Creek, 33-105-05299, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 71K 1/22;
• frack data:
  
  • 8/28/21 - 9/8/21
  • a very moderate frack: 7.5 million gallons of water; 85.4% water by mass
  • 7.5 million gallons of water x 8.3 = 62 million lbs of water
  • 62 million lbs is 0.854 of x mass
  • mass of proppants: 72.6 million lbs of proppant
  • sand: 72.6-62 million lbs = 10.6 million lbs of sand; a moderate frack; nothing special

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	43337	43444	50887	68576	65296	3280
BAKKEN	12-2021	21	27536	27299	29596	39336	37341	1995
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	3	226	226	3645	0	0	0

Oil Surging -- This Time "It Feels Real" -- March 21, 2022

This time "it feels real."

Last week? A trial run.

It's finally sinking in:

• analysts now realize that even if the war ends today, the sanctions on Russia won't end overnight;
• possibly, if Putin pulled back after the first two or three weeks, there was a possibility that sanctions would gradually be "taken down"
• but now, with the stories coming out of Ukraine, no indication this will end any time soon, and war spreading ever closer to Poland, this time the surge in oil prices feels real;

But that's only part of the problem. The bigger issue:

• everyone coming around to "the myth of spare capacity"
• tipping point: Saudi Arabia says it's not responsible for what happens next;

******************************
Moving Day

Nice Juimp In Monthly Legacy Fund Deposits -- March, 2022, Deposits

I assume this is from January sales. Could be February. But either January or February, most likely January, 2022.

January, 2022, production in North Dakota production was down 5% month-over-month.

Link here.

Apple Streaming Is Down -- The Market -- Manic Monday -- March 21, 2022

Apple News and Apple TV are down. Noted at 12:10 p.m. CT. Link here. Later: resolved. But it was very, very real.

Oil: this time "it feels real."

• Brent: up over 6%. Up $6.72; now trading at $115.
  
• WTI: up about 5%; up %.10; now trading at $110.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

UNP: as mentioned last night, I thought UNP would do well today. 

Of course, even though the Dow is down 150 points, most of the market is up strong today, so it's hard to say why UNP is up today. [That was an hour ago; now the Dow is down 300 points.]

BRK-B: huge surge earlier this morning. Now: holding, but coming down from its earlier high. BRK-B is up over $6 today.

AAPL: had been up in earlier morning trading, now dropped back.

Question: I'm not watching the news so I don't know what made the market turn down after 11:00 a.m. CT.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

From twitter, focus on energy; not much today:

• GasBuddy seems to be gaslighting us.
• Saudi Arabia says it no longer has responsibility for any shortage in oil supplies; several problems:
• decades of ignoring infrastructure; can't load more than they already are;
• the myth of spare capacity is still being debated
• rebels increasing their drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities
• some service stations are setting "fueling limits" -- getting ahead of the game
• global spare capacity is around two million bbls/day; not significant enough to deal with the geopolitical events -- Aramco CEO Nasser. Shifting the focus; shifting the blame; playing down hopes that his own country can come to the rescue
• irony: world needs more crude oil, now more than ever, and the Biden administration has spent the past year putting in obstacles to slow US production. What a doofus.  
• how does he think about US balance of payments? Most likely not at all;
• what will Psaki say at the daily White House briefing today now that oil is surging once again, and, this time "it feels real;"
  
• this is really, really cool. I was the first to really start beating the drums with regard to diesel this year. Now, finally others are noting the same thing. From Javier Blas today: we have a big diesel problem. Really big. Chart from 1994, weekly:

Diesel: the gasoline - diesel spread at the pump here in north Texas is now trending toward $1.00, $3.98 for gasoline; $4.89 for diesel. That was over the weekend. Today is manic Monday.

Onshore rig count: US shale operators not interested in helping out the present administration. Rig count dropped by one to 640. 

Green agenda unraveling: call Greta. Great reset delayed: Belgium delays killing nuclear over "chaotic geopolitical environment." By the way, for the woke crowd, "nuclear" is now "uranium."

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market Edition -- Monday, March 21, 2022

Mixed messages: despite high inflation, eating at a restaurant roars back from the Covid-19 pandemic. Link here.  

Without question, the fastest way to cut costs: quit eating out. I can fix a $15-restaurant breakfast for about 55 cents. Keurig coffee at 25 cents and two eggs at 15 cents are the most expensive items. A dozen eggs in north Texas still cost about $1.29 / dozen or about eleven cents apiece.

Pork chorizo, toast, butter, diced potatoes, almost inconsequential. My wife enjoys eating out, and we now go much more often than before the pandemic. When I see the lines of folks waiting at the door and realizing that most probably really can't afford to eat out but do, I'm reminded of what I often say: there's a lot of money out there, and folks are willing to spend it. 

We have completely eliminated our once-a-week sushi at our favorite Japanese restaurant -- too far to drive. That one meal cost us about $60 which included the  $10+ tip.

Sorting out the carnage: Monday morning sports-talk shows reviewing first round/second round of March Madness and the "Sweet Sixteen."

For investors: about a week ago I posted an essay about the value of financial statements for investors. Last night a reader sent me a long note discussing his thoughts on Engine No. 1. Coincidentally, Charles Kennedy just posted a note on the activist group, also. My thoughts and links:

• a great example of what I'm talking about -- activist investor Engine No. 1:

• not one person on this team seems to have much of a resume;
• now, after disrupting XOM, urges more Permian production.

Too big to fail: China quickly re-opens Shenzhen. Link here. From what I can tell, AAPL operations were minimally affected, if at all. 

MLB: still has a problem. 

Canada won't allow unvaccinated players into the country to play the Toront Blue Jays. Among all professional athletes, the baseball players were most resistant to getting vaccinated. Imagine: a jab in the biceps of their batting appendages. Could the Toronto Blue Jays win every game at home this season?

Only problem: reading English headlines from a German newspaper --

Heating up in the Mideast:

• Saudi won't take calls from the US president, but
• the US military-industrial complex eager to take calls from Saudi
• US sends Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia, filling urgent request to counter drone / missile attackes by Ian-backed Houthi rebels
• US ready to take Iran off terrorist list
• US ready to lift sanctions on Iran as soon as possible

California dreaming:

• Chevron pulls union workers from California refinery ahead of strike
• time for Chevron to leave California
• I wonder if Governor Newsom is still studying why gasoline prices are so high in California?

Media: Fox Business calls Starbucks founder a "labor foe."

• oh, I get it: he's a foe of unionized labor
• but, he's not a foe of his labor force;
• he has probably done more for his labor force than any other company in the US (don't take that out of context) and this is the thanks he gets: they all want to unionize
• if / when they go on strike, it will take an individual employee one to two years to recover financially;
  
• my hunch: unions will only hurt the company; customers won't notice; there are too many alternatives these days;

Frack Data For The Sub-Optimal Enerplus Spider Three Forks Well In Heart Butte -- March 21, 2022

Updates

Later, 11:34 a.m. CT: I would have had this information earlier but my server was slow and I was unable to download the file report. 

Well, this is very, very interesting. It turns out this was a middle Bakken well, NOT a Three Forks well. Although the completion report says it was the Three Forks First Bench formation that was stimulated, in fact it was the middle Bakken based on everything else in the file, including a sundry form in 2019 to change the formation target from the TF1 to the middle Bakken.

The frack volume was said to be 208,000 bbls which x 42 = 8.7 million gallons of water with 43 stages.

Original Post

The Enerplus Spider pad is tracked here. 

The well:

• 34068, conf, Enerplus, Spider 149-92-23D-29H-TF1, 33-025-03373, Heart Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2022	6273	3229
12-2021	7103	3657
11-2021	14433	8769
10-2021	15794	9884
9-2021	4104	2330

FracFocus: data for two fracks, both the same exact time period:

• 7/18/21 - 7/30/21, a very small frack: 4.1 million gallons of water, 51% produced water by mass; 39% fresh water by mass;
• 7/18/21 - 7/30/21, a much larger frack: 8.7 million gallons of water, 51% produced water by mass; 39% fresh water by mass;
• total: 12.8 million gallons of water; overall, a large frack.

File report scanned. Thirteen drilling days. Bakken standard is around eight days. 

NDIC's Lynn Helms and my impression: Three Forks wells are generally as good as or better than middle Bakken wells, so this poor initial production data is unexplained.

Boeing Down; Berkshire Up; Oil Surges; Every Single US LNG Export Terminal Set A New Monthly Record; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 21, 2022

Market: would the Dow be green if it weren't for Boeing today?

• BA: down $11 in pre-market after a  Chinese 737 crashes overnight;
• BRK-B: will acquire insurance giant Alleghany Corp for $12 billion

Oil: surged over night; continues to price higher in early morning trading

• unlike a week or so ago when oil did this, this time it feels "real"
• Brent:up 4.6%; up almost $5; trading at $113
• WTI: up 4.65%; up $4.87; trading at $110

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$109.60	3/21/2022	03/21/2021	03/21/2020	03/21/2019	03/21/2018
Active Rigs	35	16	51	67	59

Monday, March 21, 2022: 33 for the month, 142 for the quarter, 142 for the year

• 36867, conf, CLR, LCU Truman 11-23H, Long Creek,
  
• 34068, conf, Enerplus, Spider 149-92-23D-29H-TF1, 33-025-03373, Heart Butte,
  

RBN Energy: how much more LNG can the US send to Europe?

U.S. LNG exports are at an all-time high, driven primarily by new capacity online or commissioning, but the existing terminal fleet has also been pushing production to the max as offtakers, particularly in Europe, hunt for every spare molecule they can find. 

Every single terminal in the U.S. set a new monthly export record in either December or January. 

But is it enough? 

With the ongoing and tragic war in Ukraine threatening energy security and reliability in Europe, where gas storage inventories are already running low, the focus increasingly turns to LNG to replace at least some of the gas it typically imports from Russia. It sounds great in theory, and in the long term more LNG capacity will be added, but for now, we’re stuck with the infrastructure we’ve got, putting a ceiling on both how much Europe can take and how much exporters, including the U.S., can send. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential for incremental LNG exports from the U.S. to Europe to help offset Russian gas.

******************************
Initial Production

36867:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2022	43444	65296
12-2021	27299	37341
9-2021	226	0

• 34068:

• FracFocus: data for two fracks, both the same exact time period:
  

• 7/18/21 - 7/30/21, a very small frack: 4.1 million gallons of water, 51% produced water by mass; 39% fresh water by mass;
• 7/18/21 - 7/30/21, a much larger frack: 8.7 million gallons of water, 51% produced water by mass; 39% fresh water by mass;
• total: 12.8 million gallons of water; overall, a large frack;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2022	6273	3229
12-2021	7103	3657
11-2021	14433	8769
10-2021	15794	9884
9-2021	4104	2330