Catching Up -- Monday Midday News -- Odds And Ends -- Nothing About The Bakken

Earlier I asked if you could spot the "spin" or misinformation in this story --

A new study by Bankrate.com shows that about one third of uninsured Americans are going to remain without coverage and opt to pay the penalty.

I asked my wife what "one-third" was. She said 33%.

I then asked what if I mentioned "something was about one-third," what would she think? She said 25%. And that's about right. Most folks when they hear about one-third would think less than one-third, otherwise the story would have said more than one-third.

So, in the linked story, exactly what percent is about one-third? Forty-one percent. LOL. Technically, by one percentage point, 41% is closer to one-third than to one-half, but in "most" people's minds, 41% is most closely associated with almost half, as opposed to about one-third. Common sense tells me about half of all uninsured Americans are going to remain without coverage.

But it's actually worse. Human nature is such that if an unknown individual phoned you, and out of the blue, asked if you planned to buy health insurance, most thinking folks would automatically say "yes" if only not to sound stupid. Not having health insurance is considered pretty risky by most folks. So, the bias is towards saying "yes, I plan to buy health insurance." My hunch is that it will be well over half (i.e., well over 50% of uninsured folks) who will not enroll or will not pay their first premium.

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In that linked article above:

Through February, young people made up about 27 percent of total enrollees--well below the White House’s 40 percent benchmark. Still, administration officials have repeatedly said they expect a crush of young people to sign up ahead of the March 31 deadline.

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At Least They're Using Renewable Energy

The DailyCaller is reporting:

Americans living in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. are increasingly turning to a source of heat favored by humans for thousands of years: wood.

More and more people are using wood as their main source of heat as opposed to heating oil and kerosene.

The Energy Information Administration reports that, “All nine states in the New England and the Middle Atlantic Census divisions saw at least a 50% jump from 2005 to 2012 in the number of households that rely on wood as the main heating source.”
Those who switched to wood burning were spared high fuel oil and kerosene prices during this year’s harsh winter.

The Turks completed deforested their country doing the same thing centuries ago. There is a rumor that the governor of New York is not going to allow diesel trains to traverse his state; he wants the railroad to return to wood-burning steam engines. Just a rumor.

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The Algore Solar Cortex Revisited

The TimesHerald is reporting that US Coast Guard cutters are having trouble cutting through the ice on Lake Superior:

Cutting through ice 30 inches thick in places, the Adler's crew took 21 hours to go three miles.

"I had never seen anything like this before," said Boatswain Mate Second Class Jacob Nielsen, who arrived on the ship last summer from Maine.

Even Lake Superior veterans understand this polar vortex inspired winter is unique.
"They're saying this is the worst ice season since the mid-90s," says Tony Maffia, the Alder's captain. He calls it "a once in a generation-type of thing."

Others call it a result of an Algore solar cortex event.

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Has the deadline passed? Game, set, match?

If I remember correctly, John Kerry drew a "red line" in the "Black Sea" last Friday saying Russia had until Monday to reverse course. I haven't heard a thing from Kerry so far today (although, to be fair, I have not seen/listened to CNN, MSNBC, or CBS). It's possible, the Russians walked backwards into the Crimean, satisfying Kerry's definition of "reversing course."

Something tells me the Europeans consider this "game, set, match." Both gold and oil are down about one percent. All things being equal, one would assume both oil and gold would be surging. I still say Putin is a better community organizer than our own Nobel-peace-prize-winning president. Putin has organized the entire western community against his moves, and he still presses on.

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From The ObamaCare Files

From an article on ObamaCare:

When is the media going to point out how big of a joke this is? I just received my first invoice for the silver plan in the mail today for about half of my husband's take home pay. It's higher than a rent payment, car payment, and car insurance combined.

We were offered no subsidies because my husband is offered even more expensive insurance through work. They based it on the $150 2x a month that he can spend to insure himself, not the almost $900 a month it would cost to get the #$%$ health care coverage (60/40) offered for our family.

It was also solely based on my husband's income since I just graduated and just very recently took a temp job to gain experience. We are being forced to choose insurance or a roof/food/etc. Well, I do have to say, my invoice, as I'm sure thousands of others, went right into the shredder.

But hey, I can name a few dozen working adults with no family and no bills that were enrolled in "medicaid"; some of whom make just as much as we do. And I don't want free insurance; just affordable, decent coverage.

But, for now it's more affordable to pay cash. Keep on reporting these numbers, I can't wait to see what the numbers show for people who actually made their payments.  

How Bad Is The Propane Shortage? President Obama Is Getting Involved -- And Not Only That, President Obama Is Ordering Pipelines To Get Involved -- Pipeline May Not Be As Bad As Everyone Says

[The propane shortage of 2014 is one of the "big stories" I follow.]

There is a lot of information in this story, linked below. Regular readers know the background. The government's actions are a dollar short and a day late. Remember, it was President Obama that killed the Keystone XL two years ago, and continues to dither.

Bloggers have noted since 2010 that North America is the new Saudi Arabia without the infrastructure. Where is all that wind energy? All that solar energy?

Anyway, I digress. Back to the story at hand, which is a huge, huge story. Note: the directive is for one week. I wish the government could respond to an emergency in one week; but the Obama administration expects private enterprise to turn on a dime.

Bloomberg is reporting:

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) must prioritize propane shipments on a pipeline to the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, where cold weather has caused heating-fuel prices to climb, federal regulators ordered in the first use of their emergency powers.

The one-week directive issued late yesterday by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is effective immediately and applies to the Enterprise TE Products Pipeline system, which originates in Mont Belvieu, Texas.

The agency cited its authority under the U.S. Interstate Commerce Act.

Propane in the Midwest soared to a record premium over prices on the Gulf Coast last month as a polar vortex swept across the eastern U.S., dumping snow and ice and causing temperatures to plummet to record lows in cities from New York to Florida.

Supplies of the heating fuel in the Midwest tumbled to the lowest seasonal level since at least 1994.

“Clearly, it shows that the government is very worried about propane supplies throughout the Midwest and Northeast and not so worried about gasoline supplies,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston. “You’ve seen the price of propane spike, and you’ve seen trucks running up from Texas through the Midwest for resupply and the weather continues to be cold.”

My hunch is that President Obama saw the Great Lakes frozen over yesterday when he was in the agricultural capital of America, East Lansing, Michigan.  And after putting down the camera for a selfie with him and Debbie Stabenow, he read the weather report. It ain't gonna get warmer for awhile. We're in the middle of an ASCE (an Algore Solar Complex Event).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

It may be interesting to look at the 5-year graph of EPD, click on "events/dividends" and then compare to MDU.   EPD pays around 4%; MDU pays around 3%.

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Video: Coming to a Williston Theater Near You? Probably. Not.

  Him, Trailer

Higher Utility Bills Will Be Seen This Winter; How's That Renewable Energy Working Out; Where's Algore? New Yankee Pitcher Should Have Been A Ranger

Higher utility bills being reported by USA Today:

First came the deep cold, then sharply higher heating bills.

Bone-chilling temperatures have rattled consumers across the nation since mid-December. Bitter cold is likely to linger over the Northeast and Midwest, and unseasonably low temperatures are forecast for the Southeast, so millions of consumers who've seen skyrocketing utility bills are likely to see another spike in January and February.

The Energy Information Administration predicted that more than 90% of the nation's 116 million homes would have higher heating bills this winter, projecting rises of 2% (for those heating with electricity) to 13% (natural gas). Homes heated with propane were expected to spend 9% more than last year, while those using heating oil were expected to get a 2% price break

Those estimates came in October, before two-decade-low temperatures, rising demand and lower energy stockpiles gripped much of the nation. Revised EIA estimates from earlier this month peg some home heating bills rising as much as 23.5% in the Midwest. But even those estimates may be too low.

This winter isn't even as bad as previous winters. Algore tells us this is the warmest year on record, or maybe the 4th warmest year, or maybe the 7th or the 14th. Whatever one wants to believe. Oh, I see I'm wrong. USA Today says "we" are seeing "two-decade-low temperatures. That's right, I forgot. Global warming stopped 18 years ago. Whatever.

By the way, the propane shortage was man-made. Mainstream media is not mentioning the Cochin pipeline.

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Should have been a Ranger.

ATR is reporting: new New York Yankee pitcher will pay half of $155 million in taxes to various governments.

However sweet this $155 million dollar deal seems, the reality is that Tanaka will lose almost $90 million over the 7-year life of his contract with the Yankees

As reported by ESPN, the New York Yankees have signed Masahiro Tanaka to a 7-year contract worth $155 million, earning an estimated $22.1 million per year. According to ESPN, Tanaka's contract is the largest ever for an international free agent and the fifth-largest deal for a pitcher. However sweet this $155 million dollar deal seems, the reality is that Tanaka will lose almost $90 million over the 7-year life of his contract with the Yankees.

In addition to the Yankees, Tanaka was also being courted by the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs. Unlike New York City, the cities of Phoenix and Chicago do not impose a city income tax. Had Tanaka chosen a contract with the Diamondbacks or the Cubs, he would have saved almost $12 million over the life of his contract. Instead, Tanaka chose New York, where the state and local rates are some of the highest in the country. By choosing to sign with the Yankees, Tanaka automatically forfeited almost $12 million in taxes that would have been saved had he signed with the Cubs or Diamondbacks.

Tanaka will pay a combined marginal income tax rate of 56.1 percent - over half of his contract.

And then there's the utility bills to heat his McMansion during the New York winters.

There's a reason some San Antonio Spurs don't leave the team.

CBS Reporting Numerous ASCEs To Continue

CBS is reporting:

The Delaware Valley may not see a significant warm up — or even a seasonable day — until AFTER the Super Bowl!

Our current pattern of bitter cold should continue for at least the next two weeks, complemented by a few quick-moving disturbances, or clippers.

In fact, three separate clippers will reinforce the cold over the next five days. They’ll also bring more snow potential.

Clipper #1, a weak system, comes Thursday night.

Clipper #2 has a little more gusto. It arrives Saturday.

Clipper #3 (Sunday night into Monday) had been showing potential to be the “next big thing” with recent model guidance. However, the very latest information into the Eyewitness Weather Center keeps this system to our north.

CBS refers to these cold systems as "clippers." Other see them as just more ASCE's.

Natural Gas Prices Soar -- Oh, That's Right -- It's Winter In New England -- Region That Refuses Fossil Fuel

I can't make this stuff up.

New England winter -- it comes every year -- I guess it's worse now with all this global warming -- has resulting in soaring energy costs. Who wudda guessed?

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:

The price of natural gas delivered to New York City and the mid-Atlantic states soared to a record high on Tuesday, as a snowstorm brought freezing temperatures to the Northeast U.S., and traders worried about a potential drop in supplies of the heating fuel.

Natural gas for delivery Wednesday soared to $135 per million British thermal units at Transco Zone 6, a pipeline delivery point in New Jersey where New York City gas prices are set, according to IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc.

On Friday, prices traded between $10 and $25 per million BTUs.

Other pipelines, including the Iroquis Gas Transmission System that brings gas from eastern Canada to the New York City area, posted similar milestones by midday Tuesday.

The surge in prices for the second time this month underscores concerns about the infrastructure needed to transport natural gas from booming shale fields to densely populated areas when the heating fuel is needed. Traders expect greater demand for natural gas to heat homes and office buildings, as an Arctic blast brings snow to the East Coast.

The National Weather Service projects "moderate to heavy snow from the central Appalachians to New England" over the next two days. Prices typically spike to between $40/mmBtu and $50/mmBtu in periods of cold weather, analysts said. But Tuesday's sharp climb beat a previous record of $90/mmBTU for the hub set on January 6, 2014, when another Arctic blast stoked gas demand.

When I was growing up, we had a term for this: PPP. Piss-poor planning.

By the way, these Arctic blasts are now being referred to as Algore solar cortex events (ASCE).

Earlier reports suggest that New England will not have the needed pipeline in place until at least 2016.