This has been an incredible week for earnings reports.
And it continues.
Friday, April 30, 2021, on tap:
Earlier than expected, the SF 49ers take North Dakota State's QB Trey Lance with #3 pick in the NFL draft. No link; story everywhere.
The CLR Angus Federal wells are tracked here.
CLR has now completed the Angus Federal wells and are starting to report initial production.
This is one example:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 4 | 181 | 181 | 1463 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Updates
November 28, 2021: re-fracks and initial fracks.
Original Post
The BR CCU Gopher wells have been fracked and starting to report.
First example:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 18343 | 18093 | 11007 | 16031 | 16012 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The other CCU Gopher wells:
Other wells of interest in the area:
U.S. economic growth picked up in the first quarter as consumers opened their digital wallets and ordered a flood of goods and increased services spending, helping to bring total output right to the edge of its pre-pandemic level.
Gross Domestic Product growth rose to an annualized rate of 6.4 percent, with consumer spending on goods rising to a growth rate of 23.6.
It's worth pausing to reflect on how much better this was than forecasts at the end of last year. Then president-elect Joe Biden was warning of a "dark winter" ahead.
The Fed's Jerome Powell said in a December press conference that the Fed stood ready to increase its bond purchases if the economy slowed. The consensus among blue chip economists was that first-quarter GDP would grow at just below 2 percent in the first quarter.
We now know that this pessimism was misplaced. Growth was poised to explode higher once the economy was unleashed from the shackles of lockdowns and the dread of the pandemic.
In his joint address to Congress Wednesday night, Biden did his best to claim credit for the first quarter's economic rebound. But very little of the $1.9 trillion appropriations authorized by the American Rescue Act, passed in the second week of March, were spent into the economy in the first three months of the year. The exception to this is the $1,400 direct stimulus payments, which hit bank accounts in the third week of March and later. But consumers very likely spent only a small fraction of these funds in the first quarter.
Which raises the question: what happens when all this spending hits the economy? Not just the $1.9 trillion, but also the trillions for the American Jobs Act, supposedly the infrastructure bill, and the American Families Act.
One possibility is the further acceleration that the Biden people predict.
Another possibility is next to nothing. Consumers could pull back on spending in anticipation of higher taxes to pay for all this spending. [This will not happen; guaranteed.]
And, finally, the third possibility is liftoff for long-dormant inflation. Right now the market seems to believe acceleration is the most likely outcome, with inflation an outside risk. But this is an unprecedented situation, and sentiment around which way things could go might swing violently as new data comes in.
To put it differently, four months ago everyone thought growth would be weak in the first quarter. Is the consensus more reliable now that everyone thinks growth will strengthen and inflation will remain contained?
As I asked yesterday, one wonders if Jay Powell can predict the price of oil? If WTI goes to $80 like many are suggesting, Jay Powell's "transitory" inflation may be more than "transitory."
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Dow Transports
I think I heard today that "Dow Transports" hit an all time high. Whether it did or not, the DJTA chart is pretty amazing.
Years ago I subscribed to a financial newsletter called "Dow Theory." It's long-running thesis was this: if the Dow Transports confirmed the Dow Industrials (going up) it was going to be a bull market, or the bull market would continue. So, I learned to watch "Dow Transports," although to this day I have no idea if that theory holds water.
Tonight, looking at US equity futures (over at CNN and CNBC) I noted the "pre-market movers" (up and down) over at CNN.
And look at this: one of my favorite companies to follow, UNP is at the top of the list of movers. Whoo-hoo.
The 52-week high for UNP is $228, so if "that" holds, it will be quite a day tomorrow. It's been my experience that futures at 7:30 p.m. never reflect what's going to happen the next day, unless it's bad news. LOL.
I have found no story explaining why UNP might be surging (of course, the railroads are of more interest right now simply due to the KSC story) but there was this press release nine hours ago:
Union Pacific today announced that it is building a state-of-the-art grain transload facility within its Global IV intermodal terminal in Joliet, Illinois that will reduce supply-chain costs for agricultural producers and processors. The Union Pacific Global IV Transload facility will be managed by JCT, which is a 50/50 joint venture between Consolidated Grain and Barge Co. and Gavilon Grain, LLC.
So, we'll see if UNP can actually do something that AAPL could not do: hold a gain. LOL.
There are / will be nine wells on that pad. Back on May 11, 20219, there was one rig on site. Today, the first of the nine permits on that pad went from SI/NC to conf.
FracFocus has not posted any frack data for this well.
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YouTube
I mentioned YouTube yesterday when talking about Google's earnings.
I assume this has been going on for some time and I simply missed it but I'm not sure. YouTube is now loading full length movies, "free with ads." I don't know how long this has been going on.
Why not? Subscribe to YouTube without ads but air those some movies with ads for those who don't subscribe.
YouTube and YouTube+.
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Tower Records
Shale oil producer Continental Resources on Thursday, April 29, 2021, said it will ramp up activity in North Dakota’s Bakken shale field this year as it shifts more of its production operations to crude oil from natural gas.
The company said roughly 70% of its well completions in the second half of the year will be focused on the Bakken versus about 50% of completions at the start of the year.
The shift comes as the company is re-orienting its production portfolio to focus more heavily on oil, Chief Executive Officer Bill Berry told investors during an earnings call.
Last night was Joe Biden's "first" "State of the Union Address."
Ratings? Link here.
Trump's first State of the Union address: 48 million people.
Trump's lowest State of the Union address: 37 million people.
Joe Biden's "first" "State of the Union" address: 11.6 million people.
US equity markets:
Natural gas fill rate, link here,
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $64.87 | 4/29/2021 | 04/29/2020 | 04/29/2019 | 04/29/2018 | 04/29/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 16 | 31 | 64 | 62 | 29 |
Eight new permits, #38279 - #38286, inclusive:
Three permits renewed:
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
Thursday, May 27, 2021
Five Additional Confiscation Cases
For May 27, 2021, five additional cases:
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
Nine Pages
These are cases, no permits:
Thursday, May 27, 2021
Five Pages
These are cases, no permits:
Back-of-the-envelope:
Buyback:
That would leave:
Tesla
I'm getting a kick out of all the "whining" and hand-wringing on CNBC and on social media, about Tesla "making more money selling bitcoin and / or regulatory credits than they do selling cars." Well, who cares? This is the thing. Investors and CEOs need to know what "business" they are investing in and/or running, respectively.
If you don't like the fact that Tesla is making more money selling bitcoin and / or regulatory credits, then move on. There's only a gazillion other publicly traded companies one can consider.
For example, I've maintained for quite some time that Apple, Inc., is in the "fashion" business. That's why they hired that former Burberry CEO some time ago (before quickly moving on). Apple sells hardware; they sell software; but at the end of the day, it's all about "fashion" and "marketing." If not, they might as well be selling Dell / Lenovo / HP two-inch-thick laptops. LOL.
Sure, long time, that might not be a great business model .... selling bitcoin and regulatory credits. But that "buys" Tesla time, doesn't it? I don't know. But in the short term, I really don't care how Tesla makes its money. That's better than the alternative isn't it?
Rhetorical questions. Please don't reply.
As recently as last March, 2020, one could have bought TSLA for $80. Today? $700/share.
Okay.
One almost things those folks whining Tesla are:
kicking themselves for not buying Tesla last March, 2020; and, or,
shorting the stock.
As for me, I don't care how companies make their money, as long as they make money (and it's legal and "relatively" moral).
Gas stations in DFW area: in excess of 1,000.
There are 800+ gas stations in the city of Austin.
Tesla charging stations:
A huge thank you for fact-checking this for me. A huge thanks. Best note all day.
Chip shortage: not all automobile manufacturers are "treated" equally. Ford was particularly hard hit because it relied on "one" supplier, and that supplier suffered a major facility fire sometime in the last twelve months. Or something along that line. Not fact-checked. Later: from a reader, see first comment. Link here.
Japanese automotive chipmaker Renesas has said the blaze at its factory in Japan earlier this month may be worse than expected, with 17 fabrication machines affected rather than the 11 originally indicated.
The news is another blow for the semiconductor outfit, which is still recovering from the March 19 fire that shut down its Naka facility’s N3 Building, which produces 300mm wafer sizes at the campus, about 100km northeast of Tokyo.
Updates
December 4, 2021: Equinor will continue to manage royalties for Grayson Mill.
Original Post
From the Williston Herald, social media link here.
More:
There will be no restrictions. None. Nada. Nil. For NYC.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
After a blowout quarter from tech giant Apple, Goldman Sachs' long-time bearish analyst covering the stock is admitting defeat.
"We are upgrading our rating from Sell to Neutral after Apple posted another large beat and implied a raise vs. our June revenue expectations. Our original view that the iPhone cycle would disappoint in the midst of COVID was clearly wrong. Not only has Apple done better than we expected on iPhone during the cycle but Mac and iPad have also materially outperformed our forecasts," analyst Rod Hall said in an early morning note Thursday after Apple's second quarter earnings.
Hall acknowledges that since he placed Apple's stock on Goldman's closely watched Americas Sell List on April 16, 2020, shares have surged 86%. The S&P 500 is up 49%.
Active rigs:
| $64.97 | 4/29/2021 | 04/29/2020 | 04/29/2019 | 04/29/2018 | 04/29/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 16 | 31 | 64 | 62 | 29 |
One well coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, April 29, 2021: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 104 for the year:
RBN Energy: how WhiteWater's new natural gas storage project fits in the Permian.
Permian natural gas markets have never been more interesting, if you ask us. Sure, there are no negative prices at the Waha hub these days, and the triple-digit prices produced by Winter Storm Uri are starting to fade in the rear view. But there’s plenty of action ahead for Permian gas this year and next.
For starters, sometime in the next few weeks the 2.0-Bcf/d Whistler Pipeline is scheduled to begin moving natural gas from the Permian to South Texas, further enhancing takeaway options for the basin’s continually growing supply of gas. That’s good news, considering Permian gas production is at record highs and set to grow to over 14 Bcf/d by the end of 2022.
Speaking of records, gas exports from the Waha Hub to Mexico have never been higher and should increase further this summer, as power demand increases and a new pipeline across the border is expected to come online.
Topping all that off is the recent news that the Permian will soon see a major gas storage facility start up right in the middle of the Waha hub. The latter is the focus of today’s blog, in which we detail WhiteWater Midstream’s latest addition to the Permian gas infrastructure puzzle.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Market opening: NASDAQ, S&P 500 hit all time highs.
First:
Records, records, and more records.
1Q21 GDP estimate --
Inflation: 3.5% vs 2.% estimate.
Jobless, first time claims: around 550,000 -- another record low (barely) during the pandemic.
Stocks are off to best start to a presidential term since Great Depression -- The Wall Street Journal, link here:
US economy appears to be lifting off -- The Wall Street Journal, link here;
Amazon: earnings poised to surge -- The Wall Street Journal, link here;
Of interest. Earnings calendar.
Hopefully, folks are paying attention.
This may just be the most incredible bull market anyone alive has ever
seen. Does anyone remember the recession? There was (and still is, in
many cases and many places, a depression on Main Street, but the
investor class is doing very, very well).
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Unforgettable:Rumors of the death of the E&P industry have been greatly exaggerated. Link here.
Shell: link here --
BP: link here --
Total: link here --
Big Oil has enjoyed more favorable conditions this year thanks to rising crude prices and recovering fuel demand, but Total is in a better position than many of its peers.
While BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are under pressure to return more money to investors after slashing their dividends in 2020, Total maintained its payout throughout the crisis and will funnel its cash into new projects and the transition to cleaner energy. The French company’s renewable power output more than doubled in the first quarter and it gave the green light to a multibillion-dollar oil development in Uganda.
CMCSA: link here; and, here, The Wall Street Journal;
