Director's Cut -- December, 2023, Data

Locator: 46597CUT.

Link here. 

US Crude Oil Production -- EIA -- May, 2021, Data Posted

Link here.

EIA April, 2021, Dashboards Have Posted

The April, 2021, EIA dashboards have been posted:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

The graphics:

The Bakken and the Permian show almost no change month-over-month. Interestingly enough, the Eagle Ford showed the "biggest" change, albeit trivial in the big scheme of things. It surprised me because so many writers / analysts have suggested the Eagle Ford is the fastest declining oil field in the country. 

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Did It Ever Get Any Better Than This?

The EIA "Dashboards" For January, 2021

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

For the December, 2020, "dashboards," see this post. 

These are the new "dashboards," released today.

The EIA Monthly Petroleum Drilling Productivity Report -- The "Dashboards" -- January, 2021, Data

From a reader who follows this much more closely than I do and understands it better than both Art Berman and me, had this to say:  base production in North Dakota has fully recovered after a significant reduction (as in managing assets). Link here (note, a PDF will download):

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/January_2021_Supplement.pdf

See this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2021/01/rigs-ducs-and-managing-assets-bakken.html.

The same reader also made a comment at the most recent site regarding the Art Berman article addressing the same subject:

So today's report indicated DUCs were down by 145 to 7,298....902 of those were in Appalachia or the Haynesville, so most of the rest were oil wells...

But here's the kicker: there were 518 completions in December; 118 gas and 400 oil...so that article's benchmark to hold oil production steady is already being met...

So, "Op-Ed  Or Fact" is already a moot question... 

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

For the December, 2020, "dashboards," see this post.

This was the December, 2020, dashboard for the Bakken:

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Rigs, DUCs, and Managing Assets

This is the most current "dashboard" for the Bakken.  I will post the Permian and Eagle Ford dashboards later and at a stand-alone post. 

I'm traveling; and,  limited resources (battery and time).

The EIA monthly drilling productivity report for the Bakken:

It should be noted that February is the worst month for drilling and fracking in the Bakken. Actually, it's the worst month for doing anything in the Bakken, although First Lutheran Church hosts its annual Lutefisk dinner every February. The church will probably do it differently this year but my hunch is that lutefisk pretty much neutralizes "cold" viruses.

EIA Forecast For May, 2020, Crude Oil / Natural Gas Production -- May 19, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:02 a.m. CT: see comments --

Everyone misses the important part of that report: completions. The completion data is buried in the Excel file titled "DUC data (aggregated by region)" on the sidebar.

In sum, 705 wells were completed and brought into production in April, a decrease of 365 well completions from the 1,070 completions seen in March, and down from the 1,281 completions seen in April last year.

Completions: from the Director's Cut, Bakken completions going back to last year:

• March, 2020, preliminary: a whopping 120 wells were completed in March, 2020
• February, 2020, final: 57
• January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
• December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
• revenue forecast: 90
• November, 2019, final: 92
• October, 2019, final: 102
• September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

Original Post

Headline: "Permian Basin leads decline in US shale." -- Link here.

Fact check. Link. Graphic:

The problem with the headline and the graphic: no percentages -- just raw data.

With percentages for the three main US shale crude oil plays:

Play: May / June / Change / Percent m-o-m:

• Bakken: 1,135  / 1,114 / 21 / 1.85% decrease
• Eagle Ford: 1,210 / 1,174 / 36 / 2.98% decrease
• Permian: 4,377 / 4,290 / 87 / 1.99% decrease

On a percentage basis, the Eagle Ford is predicted to have the biggest decline m-o-m in crude oil production. The Permian is forecast to come in second, and the Bakken, on a percentage basis, is projected to have the smallest decline.

Natural gas, decline on a month-over-month basis:

• Eagle Ford:  1.94%
  Permian: 1.3%
• Bakken: 0.94% (best in show; LOL)

EIA Dashboards For May, 2020

EIA dashboards for May, 2020, have posted:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

The Eagle Ford is a monster. Wow, it is truly amazing.

EIA Dashboards, April 2020 -- The Bakken Still Has Bragging Rights

The EIA dashboards for April, 2020, have just been posted. The links are here:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

The Bakken still has bragging rights.

• the Permian: up 13 bbls, from 677 to 690; up 1.92%
• the Eagle Ford: up 24 bbls, from 1,231to 1,255; up 1.95%
• the Bakken: up 25 bbls, rom 1,249 to 1,274; up 2.0%;

Eagle Ford:

Permian:

Bakken:

Over the next few months, we should expect to see:

• oil production from legacy wells to decline (perhaps significantly);
• oil production from new wells to increase (perhaps significantly)

At 690 bbls / day / per rig of crude oil, the Permian is almost half that of the Bakken. The Bakken is also producing [(2000-1400/1400)] more than 42% more natural gas per rig (new wells) than the Permian.

Look at the jump in crude oil production in new wells per rig during the "trillion-dollar-debacle," 2014 - 2016, when OPEC tried to "break" US shale. It will be interesting if we see a similar jump this year.

Looking forward to May, 2020:

EIA Dashboards Have Just Posted -- March, 2020, Data

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

New-well oil production per rig (bbls/rig/day):

• the Permian: flat, absolutely flat, at 807 bbls/rig/day (no change month-over-month)
• the Eagle Ford: an increase from 1,448 to 1,467 bbls (up 19 bbls; about 1.3%)
• the Bakken: an increase from 1,384 to 1,397 bbls (up 13 bbls; about 1%)

New-well gas production per rig (mcf/rig/day):

• the Permian: flat, absolutely flat, at 1,580 mcf/rig/day (no change month-over-month)
• the Eagle Ford: an increase from 4,936 mcf to 4,956 mcf (up 20 mcf; less than 0.5%)
• the Bakken: an increase from 2,064 to 2,092 mcf (up 28 bbls; about 1.5%) 

It would be nice if the EIA would put the data from these three plays on one graph.

Graphics:

Natural Gas Production Update -- The EIA Dashboards -- The Bakken Is Surging -- February 25, 2020

Managing their resources: maybe this is why we saw the number of active rigs in North Dakota plunge from 54 to 49 overnight. The plunge occurred prior to the coronavirus shock of February 24, 2020.

Re-posting, but this time, look at the increase in natural gas production, per day, per average rig, in the three super-duper shale oil fields in North America. Look at "gas" in the three fields.

EIA dashboards, March, 2020, vs February, 2020:

• natural gas storage 
• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Look at the crude oil production/well in the various fields?

• Change in production, month-over-month, from one average rig:
• Bakken: an incredible jump of 31 bbls/day/rig; month-over-month; and that was top of an already-high monthly production --perhaps this is why CLR is "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead"
• Permian: in comparison, despite low figures to begin with, the Permian saw a change of only two (2) bbls/day/rig, month-over-month;
• Eagle Ford: similar profile to the Bakken, but lagging slightly

From A Reader -- Update On US Oil And Natural Gas Production -- By State -- Monthly Revisions -- February 1, 2020

These came in as three separate comments from a reader posted elsewhere. I will bring them up as a stand-alone post for easier access, commenting and the archives. This has to do with record-setting oil and gas production in the US.

First comment, actual November, 2020 crude oil data:

EIA 914 for NOV:

www.eia.gov/...

US was up over 200,000 bopd from October (slightly revised up).

Oil states and changes in order of current size down to 50,000 bopd:

State November, 2020: change in thousands of bbls

• U.S. Total :12,879 203 (up 200,000 bopd from October)
• Texas: 5,329 65
• Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico: 1,995 91
• North Dakota: 1,479 (3)
• New Mexico: 1,063 59
• Oklahoma: 575 (17)
• Colorado: 562 7
• Alaska: 485 10
• California: 425 (6)
• Wyoming: 293 2
• Louisiana: 122 2
• Utah: 102 1
• Kansas: 87 (1)
• Ohio: 78 (8)
• Montana: 68 4
• West Virginia: 51 (2)
• Others: 168 (2)

TX made a nice showing at +65. So much for the "peaked Permian. I sorta want +75s. But +65 is still commendable.

As I expected, FGOM made a nice rebound at almost +100. One that I warned the naysayers about. Now, if they can do a bit more (gotta be above 2 MM for street cred), that will still help with the 13 banger.

ND flat (down slightly) as expected. We get the NDIC early so know the directionality. DEC may be tough too because of winter, could even be down some reasonable amount (-25?).

NM...ah the Land of Enchantment! OCT was actually revised UP and crossed the 1 MM bopd marker. And then we got an outstanding +59 from them for the NOV number. I sort of count on them for +25 each month, so that was great work. Just no slacking off in DEC please. Need at least another +25 to get my 13 banger, with taunting rights.

OK: I can't figure this state out. And neither can anyone else. It's even funkier than CO in how the numbers move. But...well the bloom is off the rose hard for the Anadarko. Seems like it's showing in the rig counts and then the production (-17). Still...a quixotic jog up next month would help the cause.

CO: Eh...close to flat (+7). Could use a little bit more next month. Especially since I sort of group OK and CO together. So put down the doobies and cover up for your slacking mountain boomer brethren.

AK: Up +10 and every bit helps. But most of it's seasonal rebound was a couple months ago. At this point, we actually know the AK figures for DEC (from STEO/weeklies) off of pipe flow. And should be flat in DEC.

CA: Down a bit. Still lots of oil left in this state but impossible to do business with the liberals in control. Continues it's slow decline. Probably flat in DEC.

WY: Close to flat at +2. Flat seems reasonable expectation for DEC.

LA: See WY.

UT and KS: See WY but +1, -1.

OH: Kind of a big drop. But they have a lot of recent wells that are high decline. And have been extremely sensitive to oil (and even gas) prices in the past, both up and down. Given situation, have to expect another small decline in DEC.

MT: Kind of strange how this state has been stealthily climbing up, last few months. Nice +4 gain and in striking distance of three-quarters of 100,000 bopd. Realistically DEC will probably be small decline, based on weather and activity.

WV: Down a couple but hanging in the 50+ club. How many people realize the App makes significant oil! Paging James "I have more citations than you do" Hamilton!

Others: Down 2, close to flat and only 168,000 left total. Nothing significant within the states to get that down 2. Expect continued small declines, maybe a couple more, in DEC. Tired old states like IL and MI and the like. MS is the closest to crossing into the 50+ club (at 48), but there's no activity there, so not gonna happen.

Second comment: forecast data, crude oil, for December, 2020:

By state or region:

• TX: +65 (like +75 but being reasonable)
• FGOM: +25 (I still think there is more to give back from hurricane return.)
• ND: -25 (flat would be nice, but being reasonable given weather)
• NM: +25 (worried about a relapse after so much growth...but then also the growth is a Bayesian indicator for more...so fine, +25)
• AK: +5 (too lazy to check, but think there's a little more maintenance recovery)
• All others: -10 (matching last month change)

Total change: +85.

This would give us a 12.964. Sorta rounds out to a 13.0. But I'm not sure if I can taunt based off of that. Perhaps not. It's not really a 13-handle.

Still, it will be a nailbiter. If ND could "hold the line" that would be an extra 25 and get us up to 12.989. Then...if TX could scrunch down and give us the +75 instead of the +65, that would get us to 12.999! Ai yi yi! Need OK/CO to do some little statistical randomness wiggle and give us an uptick (any uptick) and all others hold the line in order to get our taunting rights.

Third comment, natural gas, November data and some December forecasts:

Not gonna analyze the gas in detail.

www.eia.gov/...

But still, you're looking at over 107 BCF/d wet in lower 48. (Always have to separate out AK gas as it is stranded.)

PA is kissingly close to 20 BCF/d (19.911). Has a chance to hit it in DEC.

TX went up ~0.2 BCF/d last month and is close to 30 BCF/d. But probably a bit too far to get there in DEC. "Only" 29.337 now.

A Look At Bakken Production Data, Average Production Per Well Per Day -- January 11, 2020

At this NDIC site, click on historical monthly Bakken oil production statistics.

Monthly production data from Bakken oil wells in North Dakota.

There are seven columns.

For this post, I am looking at the last column, the seventh column: daily oil per well (average):

Observations:

• this is for newbies
• when the number is above "100" in the seventh column, it gets my attention
• the Bakken boom began in 2007 in North Dakota
• prior to the boom, the amount of oil per well (on average) was decreasing

The data, the spreadsheets:

• The data starts with December, 2005, the last spreadsheet below:
• at that time, average production from each well in the Bakken averaged on a daily basis: 20 bbls/day/well
• in July, 2007, at the beginning of the boom, the average production per well on a daily basis: 60 bbls/day/well
• by March, 2010, about the time the boom would have been at its height: 140 bbls/day/well
• Now, going to the third spreadsheet below:
• in April, 2010, daily production on average per well per day: 140 bbls/day/well
• four years later, by October, 2014, daily production on average per well per day, about the same in the big scheme of things: : 130 bbls/day/well
• Then, going to the second spreadsheet below:
• in November, 2014, daily production on average per well per day: we start at 130 bbls/day/well;
• five years later, by May, 2019, daily production on average per well per day: down to 102 bbls/day/well;
• Finally, the most recent date, the small spreadsheet directly below:
• June, 2019, daily production, on average, per well per day: 104 bbls/well/day
• most recent data available, October, 2019: 108 bbls/well/day
  

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The Data

Observations And Comments

It makes most sense to start with the bottom-most graphic and move back up toward the top to the most recent data.

Most recently, the last five months, June, 2019 - October, 2019:

• we've plateaued at just over 100 bbls/well/day
• the trend, if anything, is moving higher, but ever so subtle
• dragging down this number are the tens of thousands of old wells that are producing so little they would be identified as stripper wells and many are
• so, if one wants to get that last column higher, all things being equal, plug and abandon some of those older wells
• interestingly enough, older, low-production Bakken wells are not being plugged and abandoned
• so, what's happening? We'll talk about that in another post

November, 2014 - May, 2019:

• this is/was a critical period
• a lot of things were happening that folks conveniently forget about
• Art Berman, et al, were forecasting the beginning of the end for the Bakken 
• production metrics across the board were falling
• but technology was getting better; what was going on?
• the Saudi tried crushing the US shale sector
• the Saudi's "trillion-dollar mistake": the Saudi surge
• 2014 - 2016, which overhang into 2017
• even for me, it was a depressing and concerning couple of years 
• but then in 2017, the numbers started to turn
• by the end of 2018, surprising naysayers, and even surprising me, average production/well/day again went over 100 bbls/day/well, and was trending higher
• one has to remember that by this time there were tens of thousands of old Bakken wells that were in serious decline and dragging the average down
• and, yet, the daily production/well/day on average was increasing, back over 100 bbls/day/well by the end of this period;

April, 2010 - November, 2014:

• in 2011, or thereabouts, average production/well/day maxed out at about 150 bbls
• by the end of 2014, average production/well/day plateaued to about 130 bbls 
• we were in a steady state, and all things being equal, the average amount of production/well/day should begin declining ... and declining significantly based on the "dreaded Bakken decline"

December, 2005 - March, 2010 

• the boom did not begin until mid-2007
• by 2005, average production per well day day in the Bakken was down to 20 bbls/day/well
• how "big" was the boom?
• five years later, average production/well/day had gone up nearly 7x to 130 - 140 bbls/day/well  

EIA Dashboards For November, 2019, Posted

The November, 2019, dashboards have been posted, with projected data through December, 2019.

A lot of takeaways here:

• Bakken: 
• new wells, oil/well continues to increase month-over-month
• new wells: 1,542 bopd, greatly exceeds that of the Permian
• Oasis using these incredible Bakken wells to fund their Permian operations (previously reported)
• new wells: natural gas production continues to increase month-over-month; exceeds that of the Permian
• by the end of the year, North Dakota production will come very close to 1.5 million bopd; data will be released in February, 2020
• Permian:
• new wells, oil/well month-over-month, flat 
• new wells: 793 bopd (51% that of the Bakken)
• that 793 is so low, I needed to triple check it
• new wells: natural gas production flat month-over-month
• Eagle Ford:
• all that talk about the demise of this field appears to be premature

The links:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Bakken:

Permian:

Eagle Ford:

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The Vocabulary Page

Marches.

Years and years ago I began a very, very intense reading program, chronologically from Homer through Ovid to the great female writers of the 18th century and culminating with Virginia Woolf. It a while to move onto the great 20th century male writers to include Joseph Conrad, Graham Greene, and Ernest Hemingway.

Along the way I read George Eliot's Middlemarch. It was there that I followed the history and etymology of "marches." Had I not spent so much time on "marches" during and after reading that book, it is likely I would have completely skipped over this sentence (bel0w(, not thinking much about it.

From The Vikings: A History, by Robert Ferguson, c. 2009:

Charlemagne's authority, and that of the Christian Church, reached its limits at the Saxon marches, in the northeast of the Frankish kingdom. Beyond lay the territories of the Ganes and the ...

Marches: another word to add to the list of vocabulary words I have developed for Arianna.

US Shale On Track To Deliver 1.5 Million BOPD Growth In 2018 -- Rystad Energy -- September, 2018

If you have time to read only one article this weekend, this would be the article.

A huge "thank you" to a reader for this link.

There are so many story lines in this article. This is just one of them.

Not only is the rate of growth steepest in the Bakken, but the Bakken leads significantly in 30-day production. This really is quite an interesting chart. Mid-Con: SCOOP/STACK?

I have archived this article. I will come back to it later.

Did North Dakota Just Set An All-Time BOEPD Production Record? -- April, 2018 Data

I'll let folks fact check me on this.

Disclaimer: I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Take everything I say in this post with a grain of salt.

First, go back to the director's cut with the most recent data, April, 2018, data.

April, 2018, data suggests "we" came very, very close to setting a new all time crude oil production record in April, missing the record by 2,500 bopd or about 0.21%. That was missing the record by 2,500 bbls on total production of over 1.224 million bbls of crude oil. Per day.

However, if one adds in the natural gas production it is very, very clear North Dakota set a new all-time BOE production record of 1,598,948 boepd. Staggering.

Someone can fact check me on that, but for now, I will use that as the BOE all-time production record for North Dakota, going forward.

Some other observations:

• 374,000 boepd natural gas production / 1,598,948 boe total production = 23%
• 374,000 boepd natural gas production / 1,224,948 bopd production = 31%
• new Bakken wells, first six months of production: about a 94% / 6% crude oil / natural gas split
• as wells mature, crude oil declines but natural gas production may increase

Other observations:

• reminder, for newbies: the greatest production from Bakken wells occurs in the first six months of production
• in April, there were over 900 DUCs (wells drilled to depth but not completed/fracked)
• had three more DUCs been brought on line in April: 90,000 bbls of oil over 30 days =  3,000 bopd would have been added to total production, setting an all-time record (preliminary data)
• in addition, in April, there were over 1,500 wells on inactive status (many Bakken wells -- and some very good Bakken wells -- are taken off line when neighboring wells are being fracked; they can be off line anywhere from a few days to a few months)
• back in 2014, there were in excess of 175 active rigs drilling in the Bakken; in April, 2018, less than 60 active rigs drilling in the Bakken -- wow, staggering

Bottom line: the April, 2018, data was much more surprising than a lot of folks realize.

Update On Pure Permian Play -- Energen -- Mike Filloon -- June 18, 2018

From SeekingAlpha:

Energen has been in the news lately with Icahn and Corvex mulling a bid to buy the company. The question seems to be why EGN? There are a number of reasons why the company is attractive. The shares seem undervalued at current valuations.

This seems linked to EGN's recent production improvements per location. EGN is a Permian pure play, and has continued to improve production results. The Permian has the most valued acreage, but widening differentials are providing value in some names. EGN's well design changes have amped up production per foot.

Its Gen 3 Delaware frac' design uses 1,800 to 2,400 lbs./ft. of proppant. It has also decreased frac' cluster spacing. These changes have provided a significant improvement, and could continue to do so. Delaware well results continue to improve, and we think it should still be the focus going forward. EGN production improvements have been significant, and we believe this will continue in 2018. We pulled production results from 2016 and 2017. Improvements as a whole have been much better than the average Permian operator. It's Delaware acreage is improving faster than Midland. Locations already produce approximately 40% more oil per foot. EGN also has 85% of its production on pipe. It has hedged for differential protection. Approximately 72% of production is hedged this year.

Compare Energen's frack design in the Permian with that of the Bakken: 1,800 to 2,400 lbs/foot of proppant:

• 9,000-foot laterals
• 10 million lbs
• 50 stages
• 10 million lbs / 9,000 feet = 1,100 lbs/foot (as much as less than half what they're using in the Permian)
• 10 million lbs / 50 stages = 200,000 lbs of sand / stage in the Bakken

Also, look at this (previously posted), link here; EIA's monthly drilling productivity report --

So, the Permian producers are using much more proppant / foot to get much less crude oil / well.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Pending USGS Survey Of The Bakken / Three Forks -- June 16, 2018

Updates

June 16, 2018: the next USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks was scheduled for 2020. North Dakota congressional representatives successfully lobbied the USGS to begin the survey sooner. That was announced on December 11, 2017. This suggests to me that the USGS should begin the new survey not later than by the end of 2018. Let's hope.

June 16, 2018: "baseline." IP30 data and well metrics update -- economics of the average well -- from SeekingAlpha. 

Summary:

• IP30 trends (oil) are shown for 17 Bakken producers
• additional well metrics and info is provided for major producers
• early 2017 data are discussed
• required WTI prices for certain IRR and cash flow levels are specified.

IP30: average daily oil production of a well in its peak production month. It's usually express in bopd. Oil includes condensate. The IP30 month follow the completion month with a lag of one to severl months -- so, the correlation between both numbers isn't perfect.

The official NDIC (North Dakota Industrial Commission) database lists 71 operators having drilled horizontal wells in North Dakota's Bakken. The table below shows average IP30 values and the associated number of wells for all active companies which had at least 40 IP30 wells since the beginning of 2014 and 10 wells with IP30 in 2016. They represent 97% of all horizontal wells.

Data for seventeen producers:

Idle Chatter Regarding The Bakken -- May 14, 2018

I was traveling last week which put me behind in my blogging. Readers sent me a lot of links and a lot of comments. I'm almost caught up.

This was a comment sent be a reader that caught my attention. I'm sure many readers have similar thoughts:

General comment. How big a deal is re-fracking of existing wells going to be and what kind of long term impact on reserves will there be?

Looking at the GIS Map at NDIC you see lots of horizontal legs all over the place. How many of those wells are 10 years old or were drilled before the latest enhanced completion techniques applied?

I don't know how widespread the effort is among producers and I don't know how much effort CLR has put into this re-frac effort but I recently looked at the results of Bridger 44-14H and in my uneducated opinion was easily impressed.

During the month of March in 26 days the well produced 13,665 BBL of oil and 19,800 MCF of gas. When the well was first completed 10 years ago the most productive month May-08 of the new well was 7,422 BBL oil and 5,364 MCF gas.

In the last 217 days of production the well has produced 140,222 BBL oil and 162,209 MCF gas. In the first 2,655 days of production (9 1/4 calendar years) the well produced 138,952 BBL oil and 128,205 MCF gas.

I agree completely. I think you are right on track ....

For newbies.

How big a deal is re-fracking of existing wells going to be and what kind of long-term impact on reserves will there be?

I suppose the answer depends upon whom you ask. If you ask Art Berman, he will likely tell you that a) the Bakken is all  hype; b) the best days of shale are behind us; c) fracking is overblown; d) "shale" was not a "revolution; and, e) technology won't "save us." All of that comes directly from Art's webpage, or what I infer from his articles over the years.

For me, I am inappropriately bullish on the Bakken.

This is where I start from and am willing to back away from some of this if data shows I am wrong. There is nothing new here. This has all been posted before:

• the Bakken has the highest TOC by percentage of any oil play in the world; TOC is the most important of the four variables in an oil play
• CLR once said there was a trillion bbls of OOIP; subsequently backed off to 500 billion bbls
• Price said there was ~ 500 billion bbls OOIP in the Bakken
• the life history of a well is important, this is all primary production: 
• drilling to depth but not completed
• constrained
• first frack/completed
• workovers
• neighboring wells fracked
• re-fracked when neighboring wells fracked
• mini-fracks 
• major re-fracks
• repeat
• in the core Bakken: no less than 24 wells per 1280-acre; some areas many more wells
• at the beginning, during the boom, 2007 - 2010
• monthly IPs: 5,000
• EURs: 350,000
• now: 
• monthly IPs: 30,000
• EURs: 1.5 million bbls
• operators won't drill a well unless EUR of 1 million bbls
• 24 wells x 1 million bbls = 24 million bbls in 1280-acre drilling unit
• percent production: no one talks about this any more; not sure where we are
• at the beginning, during the boom, 2007 - 2010: 1 -3% OOIP would be produced by primary production
• my numbers suggested closed to 5 - 7% at that time; and, I posted that
• subsequently, Whiting suggest 7% OOIP was being produced by primary production; suggested we would see 12%
• some might suggest we are at 12% production of OOIP
• the question: what is the OOIP in the Bakken
• 50 billion bbls, at 12% = 6 billion bbls
• 100 billion bbls, at 12% =
• 150 billion bbls, at 12% = 
• 500 billion bbls, at 12% =
• 1,000 billion bbls, at 12% = 
• the Bakken is producing 365 million bbls/year
• no one disagrees that the Bakken will produce at least 365 million bbls/year for ten years
• = 3,650 million 
• so, at ten years = 4 billion bbls, and at 50 billion bbls, at 12% = 6 billion bbls
• repeat, at ten years, 12% primary production on 50 billion bbls OOIP = 6 billion bbls

• USGS: most recent USGS analysis was done with the middle Bakken at 75% where it is today; probably less than 10% where upper bench of Three Forks is today; did not even consider the lower benches of the Three Forks

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately bullish about the Bakken.

Disclaimer: my numbers are based on unfettered production; geopolitics and national politics can change everything; a Hillary-ban on fracking would obviously change everything

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Barrels Of Oil Per Well Per Month In The Bakken -- May 14, 2018

After posting this earlier, I was curious how production / well in the Bakken was trending (see that data below the graphic):

B is for Bakken. B is for Best. Bakken is the top producer of crude oil among US shale plays -- ranked by "productivity of new wells." This has been previously posted.

Link here: barrels of crude oil per well per day -- average (obviously):

• 2018, two months of data: 84 bbls of crude oil / well / day
• 2017: 79 
• 2016: 80
• 2015: 96
• 2014: 101
• 2013: 96
• 2012: 92
• 2011: 75
• 2010: 65
• 2009: 52
• 2008: 44
• 2007: 34
• 2006: 33
• 2005: 30

Dueling Banjoes Comes To Mind -- April 6, 2018 -- Staggering

 Updates

April 6, 2018: see first comment --

About 450 rigs currently drilling.

Enno's site had about 3,000 new wells in 2017, let's say 9 per day.
Peg each new well at 1,000 barrels/day to start, giving 9,000 bpd increase.
90 days of that - with no drop off in output - is over 800,000 barrels of oil.

That is a lot of oil. 

My thoughts: Think of that. Compare 450 rigs drilling in the Permian vs 60 rigs drilling in the Bakken. 

Later, 10:03 p.m. Central Time: the original note began with links regarding the Permian and then morphed into comparing the Bakken boom (2007 - 2014) with the current Permian boom (2014 -- the present day).

Having said that and having focused on that, one can easily forget the much bigger story: the absolutely incredible story with regard to US shale. It is truly amazing.

Look at this screenshot taken from this site:

Do you see what I see? If I'm reading the chart correctly, the Permian hit 1.9 million bopd just before the end of the year (2017) and then dropped back a bit (North Dakota Bakken -- supposedly a much smaller play, was producing about 1 million bopd in the same time frame). But I digress. Back to the point. If I'm reading the chart correctly, the Permian hit 1.9 million bopd just before the end of the year (2017) and then dropped back a bit.

1.9 million bbls (slightly less) at the end of 2017. Hold that thought.

It was reported earlier this week (and posted on the blog) that the EIA estimates that the Permian set a new production record with 3.1 million bopd. If that's accurate, that is staggering. A jump from 1.9 million bopd to 3.1 million bopd over any time period is staggering (remember Hubbert's peak oil theory) but in this case, the Permian may have gone from 1.9 million bopd to 3.1 million bopd in less than three months. Absolutely staggering.

If that comes true -- a jump to 3.1 million bopd from 1.9 million bopd  -- what's the delta? Exactly "another Bakken." The delta is 1.2 million bopd -- North Dakota (mostly the Bakken) is producing about 1.2 million bopd. Staggering.

Original Post

Crash? There's a very, very short summary of the Permian over at SeekingAlpha today but it articulates at least to some extent what I've been noticing for the past year. A reader comments on a SeekingAlpha article regarding the Permian:

• operations in the Permian Basin are like being on a tread mill; once drilling activity slows production will drop like a rock
• current production growth is limited due to the lack of transportation or the ability to flair NG from existing wells
• service costs are escalating at double-digit rates with the acreage cost in the prime areas running as high a $60,000 or more per net mineral acre it makes more sense to sell your acreage than to drill it. I've sold some in excess of $80,000 per net mineral which is just nuts 
• current pumping technology is not able to pump the oil from laterals that are running over 10,000 feet without constant breakdowns resulting in higher operating costs
• well communication has been a known problem is the Basin for a long time and is only getting a lot worse. It's a known fact that you can take a 30-year-old Spraberry well that is producing 1-2 Bbls per week and shut it in for an extended period of time and the well will recharge itself over time. It's one of the more permeable basins in the country [this one I'm not concerned about]

Those were the very same concerns we heard during the Bakken boom and the Bakken did just fine. The difference for me:

• Permian acreage trading for as much as $80,000 / acre
• during the early Bakken boom, WTI was selling for well over $100/bbl 

But this is the problem: because the Permian is getting so much more coverage than the Bakken ever did (except for the negative stories on fracking and pipelines), once we start hearing about operators failing in the Permian, it will have a snowball effect. It's easy to forget that not all operators survived in the Bakken either.

Operators that bought in late (XOM?) could be in trouble; operators that bought decades ago (COP) might do very, very well.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here.

The link also includes a nice graphic for those interested in the Concho - RMS Permian deal.

The comment posted above were in reply to a "Blue Quadrant Capital Management" article. In response to another comments, "Blue Quadrant" replied:

If you go to this site, you will see that wells completed in 2010 in the Bakken are still flowing .. in fact production from these wells is still at 20% of the initial production rate ...

The long production tail post the first few years of decline is actually quite a positive dynamic for shale companies It doesnt seem to be the same in the Permian though , as we can see wells that were completed in 2012 , although they are still flowing now, the production from these wells are only around 10% of the initial production rate ... whether this will change or not, or if it is due to more intensive early fracs in the Permian as opposed to the Bakken , or an entirely different geology, cannot say ...

This link (the same as above) has a very, very nice interactive chart regarding the Bakken. 

No, I'm not going to post Dueling Banjoes. I never cared for that song. Instead:

Dreamin', Johnny Burnette