What Changed? May 20, 2023

Locator: 44704ARCH. 

Sports: another great Saturday -- PGA championship, the Preakness, and an NBA game tonight. I assume also NASCAR but I probably missed the race. Oh, yes, the NASCAR race finished quite some time ago.

The Preakness: in about half an hour. Scheduled: 7:01 p.m. ET. Wow, they can drag this out.

• outcome: wow, one for the record book!
• National Treasure; Hall of Famer jockey; Baffert -- among trainers, all-time winner Baffert!
  

PGA: I really don't care, but it is what it is. I can bike by Bryson's house every day if I wanted, about fifteen minutes from where we live.

**********************
Ennui

One of my favorite words.

See Blackbird, VCU.

That's my "feeling" right now. Has been so for the past several days.

Something's changed; I don't know what (until now).

We moved from San Antonio, TX, to the DFW/TX area in 2013. 

The years 2013 - 2017, I suppose, were some of the best in the past ten years. From 2013 - 2020 lived in an apartment complex not nearly as nice as the one we are currently in; the pool was not nearly as nice as either of the two pools in our new apartment complex, but I have fond memories of the earlier apartment complex. I spent a lot more time in that pool; I read a lot more; I was grilling on my Weber a lot more; I was biking more; I was at the library at least once weekly.

But in the last year or two, I find something missing or something changed. For the past couple of days I've been trying to figure that out. What changed? And then on a bike ride today, up to the Grapevine Public Library, it came to me.

 

Wow, Wow, Wow — One Of My Most Disappointing Long-Term Holdings Announced A Dividend Increase — July 27, 2023

Locator: 45231DIV.

Baker Hughes.

From nineteen cents to twenty cents.

And it is a “quarter early.” 

Who-hoo!

One penny but that’s a 5.3% increase quarter/quarter.

The Irony Of It All -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45230B. 

Moments ago a reader sent me a comment about the quirkiness of Apple / Apple products. For the life of me, I couldn't "reply" on my own blog to to the reader's comment. I tried everything. Switched from Firefox to Safari and then back to Firefox and nothing worked.

Finally, out of "desperation," as it were, I opened the blog using Chrome and I could finally respond. 

And then, on top of that, several other problems I had with "blogger" on either Safari or Firefox went away with Chrome.

Of course, I suppose that makes sense. Chrome is an Alphabet/Google browser and the "blogger app" is owned by Alphabet/Google.

So after all these years, maybe I will have to give up Firefox and use Chrome when blogging. 

We'll see.

**************

EVS

I want to make sure I’m clear on this. I write a lot about EVs and I’m investing in Daimler Trucking which  is very much an EV investment, just as folks who invest in, let’s say, GM, are also investing in EVs.

However, I am 100% sure “this” is not going to end well.

“This”: EVs.

I still think EVs are an unmitigated disaster on every level and it’s just a matter of time before it becomes obvious to all.

There are so many aspects when I say “on every level” I may start a series on why “this” is such an unmitigated disaster. But it seems to be such a waste of time. Sort of like preaching to the choir.

Instead, I’ll probably re-post this periodically just to make sure folks know where I stand on this.

Good, finally got that posted.

**************

Entertainment

Best ads on OTT right now: Old Spice.

Speaking of which: I haven’t seen a Bud ad in ages. 

I only watch YouTube any more, along with “Monk.” Rare exceptions do I watch anything else.

I now spend hours in the local library, five days a week (or more). 

**************

Rat Pack

A must-watch: The Dean Martin Association document on the “Rat Pack.”

I’ll know you found it on YouTube if you can tell me the founder of the Rat Pack and its president.

**************

The Heat

I made a conscious decision two or three years ago to quit following wind / solar / renewable energy to the extent I had been following the subject. Again, I wasn’t getting anything out of it. 

When I last spent any time on the subject I recall all the articles on sunspots and the solar cycle and coming heat spell. I suppose that was about two years ago, maybe longer. But it certainly seems to be playing out as “forecast.”

June 2, 2023: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/time-lapse-of-solar-cycle-25-displays-increasing-activity-the-sun. The lede: 

In case you missed it, Solar Cycle 25 has ramped up much faster than scientists predicted producing more sunspots and eruptions than experts had forecast. 

Tracking and predicting the Sun’s solar cycles gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types – from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms – and it’s used by many industries to gauge the potential impact of space weather on Earth. 

Though we are seeing increased activity on the Sun, we expect this solar cycle to be average compared to solar cycles in the past century. Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019 with a marked increase in solar activity.

August NDIC Hearing Dockets Posted -- July 27, 2023 -- IN PROGRESS

August hearing dockets posted, link here.

Locator: 45153B.

Link here. Won't load on Firefox. Use Safari or some other browser.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

These are cases, not permits.

Monday, August 7, 2023. 

Four continuation cases re: geologic storage of carbon dioxide in the Broom Creek Formation from the Milton R. Young Station and other sources, in multiple sections, Oliver County,

Wednesday, August 16, 2023.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023
Eight Pages

Cases, not permits:

• 30265, Phoenix Operating, Burg, Green Lake and/or Smoky Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit .... one well, Williams, Divide;
• 30266,
• 30267,
• 30268,
• 30269,
• 30270,
• 30271,
• 30272,
• 30273,
• 30274,
• 30275, Oasis, four wells;
• 30276, Oasis, establish four standup 1920-acre units; four wells on each, total = 16 wells, Cottonwood-Bakken; 
• 30277, Phoenix Operating, pooling,
• 30278, Phoenix Operating, pooling,
• 30279, Oasis, pooling,
• 30280, Oasis, pooling,
• 30281, Oasis, pooling,
• 30282, Oasis, pooling,
• 30283, Oasis, pooling,
• 30284, Oasis, pooling,
• 30285, Oasis, pooling,
• 30286, Oasis, commingling,
• 30287, Oasis, commingling,
• 30288, Hess, pooling,
• 30289, Hess, pooling,
• 30290, Hess, pooling,
• 30291, Grayson Mill, Siverston-Bakken, nine wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 13/24-150-99; McKenzie;
•  30292, Grayson Mill, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, eight wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 14/23-150-99; McKenzie;
• 30293, Grayson Mill, commingling,
• 30294, MRO, commingling,
• 30295, BR, commingling,
  

Wednesday, August 23, 2023, supplement.

• One continued case.

Thursday, August 24, 2023.
Ten pages.

Cases, not permits:

• 30296, KODA, Grenora-Bakken, spacing and redefine field limits.
• 30297, Crescent Point Energy, 
• 30298
• 30299
• 30300
• 30301, Liberty Resources, 8 wells;
• 30302, Liberty Resources, 8 wells;
  
• 30303, Enerplus, 
• 30304, WPX,
• 30305, CLR,
• 30306, XTO, pooling,
• 30307, Liberty Resources, pooling,
• 30308, Liberty Resources, pooling,
• 30309, Liberty Resources, pooling,
• 30310, Liberty Resources, pooling,
• 30311,, Liberty Resources, pooling,
• 30312, CLR, pooling, 
• 30313, CLR, pooling, 
• 30314, CLR, pooling, 
• 30315, CLR, pooling, 
• 30316, CLR, pooling, 
• 30317, CLR, pooling, 
• 30318, Iron Oil Operating, pooling,
• 30319, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 3030, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30321, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30322, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30323, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30324, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30325, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30326, Iron Oil Operating, pooling, 
• 30327, Enerplus, commingling,
• 30328, Caliber Midstream, SWD
  

Thursday, August 24, 2023 supplement.

• Three continued cases.

WTI Trades Above $80; Profit-Taking Mars Rally; Eight New Permits -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45229B. 

F: incredible earnings. Surprised analysts; strong conventional truck sales; conventional prices "inflated" to pay for costs associated with EV ramp; Ford pushed out EV target. But their earnings were incredible -- many story lines here. Analysts expected an earnings decline of 20% to 54 cents, but, in fact, reported earnings of 72 cents. This was key, and exemplifies the entire EV industry:

• Ford Model-e, the emerging EV business, saw revenue vault 39%, year over year. But its loss widened to $1.08 billion from $722 million in Q1. Analysts will have problems forecasting and establishing a buy point.
  
• Further, Ford now expects to reach a 600,000-unit global EV production run rate during 2024. It previously expected to reach that target by the end of 2023. 
• link to WSJ here.
  

INTC: earnings beat. Link here.

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $80.09

Eight new permits, #40077 - 40084, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (5); Grayson Mill (3)
• Fields: Big Butte (Mountrail); Round Prairie (Williams):
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for three Cuda wells, NENE 15-154-104; 
• to be sited 757/758 FNL and between 663FEL and 603FEL;
• Hess has permits for two EN-Trout wells and three EN-Halvorson wells, all in lot 3, section 2-156-94; 
• to be sited 524 FNL and between 1708 FWL and 1840 FWL.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 32237, 238, Petro-Hunt, Bella 4B-28HS,
• 32449, 244, Petro-Hunt, Donna Bddy 14B-20HN,
• 39020, 927, CLR, Rhonda 6-28H1,
• 37945, 1,395, CLR, Brangus FIU 14-11H2,
• 36631, no ip, XTO, Tobacco Garden 21X-17D,
• 37698, 0, BR, Ole 4-1-29MBH,

Huge Headline; Small Story -- Bud To Lay Off Less Than 2% Of It CORPORATE Staff -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45228BEER. 

Link here.

Earlier it was my impression the layoffs / firings were mostly on blue collar workers.

Nope. Corporate.

Marketing?

We can only hope.

SCOTUS: Enouugh Is Enough -- Mountain Valley Pipeline -- Resume Operations -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45227PIPELINE.

This was incredibly important. The US judicial system was starting to look like that of a Central American banana republic. 

The Book Club -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45226GASOLINE. 

 Gasoline demand, link here:

 *****************************************
The Book Club

What a treat! Four books to look at today.

The books:

• Explorer's Guide: Philadelphia and Amish Country, 917.48RAN.
  
• On the Trail of Robert Pirsig and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Mark Richardson, c. 2008. 917.3RIC. Notes.
• The Making of Middle-Earth: A New Look Inside The World of JRR Tolkien, Christopher Snyder, c. 2013. 823SNY.
• Cities of Empire: The British Colonies and the Creation of the Urban World, Tristram Hunt, c. 2014. 941HUN.

My wife and I just completed a grueling round-trip drive from north Texas to Portland, OR. Now, I will be visiting Pennsylvania -- Lancaster, to be more specific, later this summer. That's the reason for book #1 above.

I'll page through Middle-Earth. I've read much of it before. See if anything new catches my eye.

Of course, how could I pass up the Robert Pirsig story. I'll read bits and pieces but not all of it today.

And finally, I'll pick a city or two out of book #4 -- probably Hong Kong.

Here It Is! -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45225WTI.

*****************************
The New Math

 I think they use the use the metric system to count in France.

0.6 * 48,000 = 28,800.

RMDs: Inherited IRAs -- IRS Update -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45224RET.  

Link here.

The Internal Revenue Service on Friday said it would continue to delay enforcing new rules related to inherited retirement accounts, enabling some inheritors to forgo taking a required distribution for 2023.

The confusion for inherited IRA owners comes after Congress changed the rules for inherited retirement accounts in 2019. From then on, most taxpayers other than spouses who inherit accounts had to empty the funds within 10 years, not over their lifetimes, as was previously allowed.

The upshot is that some inheritors subject to the new 10-year payout window don’t have to take required minimum distributions for 2023.

2Q23 GDP: 2.4%

Locator: 45223ECON.  

Faster ... than ... expected. Doesn't CNBC track GDPNow?

In case you missed it:

It's exactly what GDPNow forecast for the past two weeks.

But, rain on the parade is in the forecast, link here:

Fourteen Days Into Perhaps The Longest Rally In History And NASDAQ Futures Are Up 205 Points -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45222INV.  

Didn't everyone say 2Q23 earnings were going to be a disaster? That we would be in a recession by now? Even Charlie Munger said we were in a mild recession a few months ago. Well, not yet. Maybe next month.

It's Only Thursday -- Will The Dow Add Two More Days To This Record Rally? July 27, 2023

Locator: 45221INV.  

Didn't everyone say 2Q23 earnings were going to be a disaster? That we would be in a recession by now. Even Charlie Munger said we were in a mild recession a few months ago. Well, not yet. Maybe next month.

McDonld's: This reminds me. I need to add MCD to my top -20-big_cap_dream-portfolio. [Later: my bad. I see I already had MCD in the top-20 portfolio. In fact, it was in the top 10. Whoo-hoo!]

Consumers are running out of money, the charts said.

AAPL: won't hit a new high today. Oh, well.

******************************
Geo-Politics

Link here.

TGIT -- The Early Morning Edition -- Resistance At $80 -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45220B.   

Wow: both Shell and TotalEnergies miss forecasts; earnings plunge by half? More than half? Well, whatever it is/was, it is/was a lot. Shell didn't miss a beat: raised dividend by 15% and said they would increase buybacks. Well, of course, they would buy back their own stock. They know that 3Q23 is gooing to be .... awesome.

CMCSA: beats estimates.

TESLA: rigged "range" estimates; confirms "cold weather woes."

China: youth unemployment staggering. Kinda tells me the US economy is doing just fine, thank you. Think "Goldilocks."

INTC: it's not all about phones any more.

Oil demand: globally, using more than ever. An inconvenient truth. And, here.

Coal demand: globally, using more than ever. Starting to see a trend here.

Internet for all: why didn't the US / NASA do this years ago? $120 million = 33 cents / American.

AI bubble. Probably not. Apple supplier says AI demand robust. And, here.

Trucking: Daimler and hydrogen.

RIG: the stock, doubled in price over the past year. Link here to Guyana.

Inflation: corroborates the "blog's" take on inflation. JPow gets it. Americans don't care about "the number." They care about the price of gasoline which they see in huge lights every day.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.47.

Friday, July 28, 2023: 87 for the month; 195 for the quarter, 450 for the year
39475 conf, Ovintiv USA, Newman 150-97-21-16-15H,

Thursday, July 27, 2023: 86 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 449 for the year 
None.

RBN Energy: ethane prices rocket into space, then crash to earth on Tuesday. What happened?

In just over a month, the price of Mont Belvieu purity ethane doubled, from 19 c/gal to 39 c/gal on Friday. Sure, the price of natural gas was up about 15% over the same period. But that increase was nowhere near ethane’s, so it was certainly not the price of gas that was making ethane take off. In fact, with ethane rocketing into space and gas prices still in the dumper, the ethane-to-gas ratio — a key measure of the value of ethane — skyrocketed, soaring from 1.2X in mid-June to 2.2X on Friday. A ratio at this level has only happened twice before in the past decade: once in 2018 due to a collision between fractionation capacity and new petchem plants coming online, and then again in 2020 during the COVID petchem demand surge. But the most recent price surge didn’t last long. On Tuesday ethane came back to earth, crashing 22% in a single day, and the ethane-to-gas ratio deflated down to 1.6X. So what’s happening? There are a lot of conspiracy theories out there that we won’t repeat here. Instead, in today’s RBN blog, we’ll lay out what we think are the most likely contributing factors behind this wild ride.

It's Not Often That North Dakota Is Bloomberg's Top Story -- July 27, 2023

Locator: 45219ND.   

Link here.