Locator: 48002ECON.
Thought-provoking: prudence-signaling vs realism-acknowledging. I've spent much of Memorial Day weekend "studying" this. Very, very interesting. Many CNBC talking heads seem to be masters of "prudence-signaling."
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US Air Traffic
This is truly amazing. Truly amazing.
***************
Kahoot!
Online game.
Locator: 48001B.
These wells and neighboring wells are tracked here.
The wells:
Production data:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 30 | 13214 | 13197 | 10333 | 13728 | 13499 | 212 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 28 | 4151 | 4143 | 6187 | 3984 | 3960 | 19 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 26 | 4655 | 4635 | 7131 | 7070 | 3785 | 224 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 29 | 4097 | 4129 | 4163 | 5597 | 3073 | 10 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 28 | 3063 | 3073 | 4577 | 4722 | 2306 | 14 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 31 | 2578 | 2589 | 5640 | 3635 | 1593 | 2 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 10 | 900 | 928 | 1656 | 1178 | 413 | 13 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 6 | 749 | 736 | 737 | 1178 | 754 | 6 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2023 | 31 | 4228 | 4205 | 5119 | 4813 | 2988 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 30 | 9190 | 9179 | 13923 | 12916 | 12696 | 208 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 26 | 6695 | 6681 | 12011 | 9359 | 9305 | 46 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 12 | 2346 | 2336 | 4894 | 2949 | 1749 | 102 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 31 | 3332 | 3368 | 7015 | 3890 | 1806 | 6 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 2983 | 2995 | 10429 | 4666 | 2324 | 14 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 31 | 2057 | 2068 | 13980 | 3077 | 1432 | 2 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 25 | 1682 | 1710 | 10708 | 2137 | 627 | 19 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 13 | 2082 | 2046 | 3144 | 4181 | 2726 | 22 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2023 | 31 | 5359 | 5329 | 6711 | 10356 | 7970 | 0 |
Locator: 48000THEFATLADY.
In the western conference (NBA) playoff, total number of points separating winners from losers -- total number of points, all games = 18 points.
Right now, at halftime, in game five, Dallas leads the series 3 - 1, the (halftime) score is 69 - 40.
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A Pyrrhic Victory
If Trump were to win the presidency this fall, the case today will be the Pyrrhic victory of all Pyrrhic victories.
34 counts decided in a couple of hours. I haven't followed the case at all, but wow, it certainly has that feel of a "kangaroo court."
I read today that Bill Ackman will support Trump. Need to fact check. And I did. Easy enough.
Back to Trump.
The "fat lady" (the jury) has sung. A month from now, the polls will clearly show what the audience heard.
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Weekly EIA Report
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Investing
Industrial stocks have soared—but their run may only be getting started.
Yes, it’s been a good year for the group. The Industrial Select Sector exchange-traded fund—home to manufacturers such as Caterpillar and General Electric; transport companies Union Pacific, FedEx , and United Parcel Service ; airlines; and even Uber Technologies —has gained about 11% this year after dropping a bit this past week.
That outpaces the S&P 500’s roughly 8% rise.
Whether one clocks 11% or 8%, the important thing is to keep investing, keep reading, keep paying attention.
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US Air Traffic
Locator: 47999ETSC.
I really don't care one way or the other about this utility story from an investing point of view. For me, this is just another example of folks not realizing (or maybe they do -- more on that later, perhaps) the "hugeness" of the "data center phenomenon." And it's all electricity.
That's why I have a "locator tag" abbreviated ETSC -- "energy transition supercycle." For me, posted most recently May 16, 2024:
ETSC:
- utilities
- copper
- tech that saves energy (better chips)
Again, if this doesn't get analysts' attention, I don't know what will -- these data centers are going to be drawing so much power, the "movers and shakers" are backing small modular nuclear reactors to power new data centers link there). North Dakota (MDU) is already facing the problem of adequate electricity supply.
So, from SeekingAlpha late today:
Here’s how the top 10 holdings in the ETF have fared in May through Thursday, May 30:The S&P 500 Utilities group looks set to exit May by further solidifying its turnaround to become a top-performing sector this year, with gains sparked by investors seeking AI investment plays.
One day before May trade ends, all 10 of the largest holdings in the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF have logged advances for the month, led by a +20% surge in Constellation Energy. The S&P 500 Utilities index itself has gained ~6% this month alone and was up ~11% YTD. The sector was the worst performing on the S&P 500 earlier this year, extending that status from 2023. But it now stands as the top gainer so far in Q2, spurred by investors wanting exposure to companies supplying energy and services to run AI-related data centers that more businesses are using. Goldman Sachs this week said it’s still bullish on the S&P 500 Utilities sector. Bank of America in a recent update said utility funds experienced the largest weekly inflow since November 2022, with a $700M haul.
- NextEra Energy - Up 16.75% Weight: 14.70%
- Southern Co. - Up 6.2% Weight: 7.86%
- Duke Energy - Up 3.1% Weight: 7.23%
- Constellation Energy - Up 21% Weight: 6.59%
- Sempra - Up 3.9% Weight: 4.35%
- American Electric Power - Up 2.5% Weight: 4.30%
- Dominion Energy - Up 4.9% Weight: 4.10%
- PG&E - Up 6.8% Weight: 3.61%
- Public Service Enterprise - Up 7% Weight: 3.41%
- Exelon - Up 2.3% Weight: 3.36%.
Locator: 47997B.
May 30, 2024: link here.
ConocoPhillips’ $17 billion deal for Marathon Oil Corp. fits neatly into the trend of consolidation in US oil, but it also provides a lens to survey the shifting balance of power in the global industry.
Go back to the start of the century. The biggest Western oil company was, as it is today, Exxon, weighing in at a market value of about $200 billion. But Britain’s BP Plc, fattened by the 1998 takeover of Amoco, wasn’t far behind at more than $190 billion. Conoco, before its merger with Phillips, was worth just $11 billion.
After yesterday’s announcement, ConocoPhillips is heading for a market value of more than $150 billion, dwarfing BP’s current $103 billion capitalization.
BP’s travails — from the Macondo oil-spill catastrophe to a misfiring energy-transition strategy — are well-documented, and plenty has been written about the relative valuations of oil equities in the US and Europe. But it’s still instructive to dig a little deeper.
The big difference between the two companies is that while BP remains a fully integrated wellhead-to-gas-station oil major, ConocoPhillips got rid of refineries more than a decade ago.
For the past five years, the US firm has carefully honed its portfolio to break even at less than $40 a barrel, leaving ample headroom for buybacks and dividends.
BP and the combined Conoco-Marathon pump about the same amount of oil and gas. So investors are giving little or no credit for BP’s giant refining and marketing business, which sells fuel to millions of motorists daily, as well as a world-class trading operation.
One striking statistic: BP employs almost 90,000 people, Conoco and Marathon just 12,000.
What to make of the comparison? First, it’s a vivid illustration of the US premium — it’s little wonder Shell Plc boss Wael Sawan and TotalEnergies SE’s Patrick Pouyanne have floated the idea of a New York listing.
Second, it shows how far BP’s star has waned in the past quarter of a century. After shaping the modern oil industry from the US to Russia, the producer is now a laggard.
Once considered a supermajor, the company has been outstripped by a super-independent.
--Will Kennedy and Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg News
Locator: 47996B.
The Enerplus "Fox" pad is tracked here.
The wells:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2024 | 0 | 250 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2024 | 0 | 422 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2024 | 0 | 329 |
The maps:
Locator: 47995ELECTRICITY.
Electricity rates by state, April, 2024, link here.
Electricity bill, north Texas. Household energy: only electricity, no natural gas. Utility says their electricity is 100% renewable.
My rate runs
about 15.6 cents per kWh, slightly higher than the "advertised" 14.25
cents, up slightly from 14.11 cents one year ago.
Locator: 47994B.
The well:
| BAKKEN | 5-2023 | 31 | 8426 | 8363 | 7041 | 10183 | 9588 | 498 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2023 | 30 | 9896 | 9872 | 7247 | 11646 | 11212 | 350 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2023 | 31 | 9258 | 9161 | 6746 | 10284 | 9410 | 797 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2023 | 28 | 6281 | 6289 | 7276 | 9092 | 8458 | 570 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2023 | 24 | 8270 | 8254 | 10677 | 9001 | 8544 | 407 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2022 | 24 | 8948 | 9009 | 13384 | 8158 | 7647 | 343 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2022 | 27 | 14104 | 14093 | 21899 | 12069 | 11224 | 557 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 17872 | 17857 | 35351 | 15571 | 14102 | 1233 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 15750 | 15796 | 45331 | 16188 | 15933 | 7 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 27 | 16451 | 16527 | 61968 | 11173 | 10846 | 126 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 7 | 5100 | 4802 | 26119 | 3835 | 3252 | 337 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 29 | 1793 | 2006 | 1090 | 1147 | 0 | 821 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 1848 | 1825 | 1178 | 1166 | 0 | 842 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 2065 | 2035 | 1278 | 1304 | 0 | 940 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 31 | 2106 | 2157 | 1261 | 1332 | 0 | 966 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 30 | 2044 | 1983 | 1367 | 1292 | 0 | 942 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 31 | 2125 | 2093 | 1392 | 1340 | 0 | 979 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 2145 | 2175 | 1518 | 1348 | 0 | 990 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 2403 | 2392 | 1658 | 1444 | 0 | 1108 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 31 | 2649 | 2708 | 1768 | 1585 | 0 | 1232 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 30 | 2993 | 2907 | 1903 | 1716 | 0 | 1349 |
Locator: 10010MROBUEHNER.
Updates
May 30, 2024: maps and production data updated.
Original Post
I think I've discussed these wells in varying formats multiple times.
A reader provided much background information today. Link here.
The graphic:
In
this there are five singletons to the north of section 18-146-93; one
singleton to the east, as well as another well on a multi-well pad, that
are of interest:
These twenty-two wells are sited in section 18-146-93; some run north, some run south:
Remember how folks used to say that "daughter wells" would not be as good as "parent wells." We don't hear that much in the Bakken any more.
These ~30 wells will keep a lot of folks employed for a very long time.
Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.Locator: 47993ECON.
Analysts estimate: down 0.7%.
Actual: down 7.7%.
Holy mackerel.
Locator: 47992INS.
I have no idea if this was an ad or a news story. It was a top story over at CNBC Online today.
Locator: 47991INV.
CNBC -- First Hour: Jim Cramer
GDP: lowest reading in two years (not quite). This is the only chart JPow needs to study today. Even a caveman can see a trend here:
By the way, take another look at that chart above: this is why the definition of a recession is not particularly helpful to the average investor. See if you can spot what I'm seeing.
AI PCs: biggest re-fresh cycle in a decade? Bottom line: college kids need ChatGPT and they need it free, and they need it "easy." AI PCs need:
Dow: down 300 points in pre-market, due almost entirely to one Dow component, SalesForce, Inc.
I remember some years ago, I was "advised" by a millennial / GenXer to invest in SalesForce. At the time, I had done a "deep dive" into Devon.
Not in any time period (3-month, 6-month, one-year, five-year) does CRM impress me compared to COP.
And then this, dividend:
Disclaimer Briefly
Reminder:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I
am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.Locator: 47990ECON.
Personal investing:
Talking heads still mis-using "stagflation."
This is 1Q24, smallest since 2/22:
The good news: talking heads can't agree what this means. LOL.
GDPNow, 2Q24: 3.5%
Definition of a "soft landing." Two problems:
The first is not a real problem -- a "negative" GDP -- no matter how small two consecutive quarters = a "hard landing." However, each month without a "negative" GDP moves the goalposts another ten yards down the field. Pretty soon, the "soft landing/hard landing" goalpost in a Ft Worth, TX, high school stadium will be in a Dallas, TX, high school stadium.
I do believe someone has been talking about a hard landing since at least March, 2022 -- that's two years ago, and it looks like a negative GDP is not in the cards for at least one more quarter.
I still see a Goldilocks economy for investors. When it comes to the Fed, it's binary:
**************************
Re-Posting
My favorite chart, link here:
Locator: 47989LEGACYFUND.
On days like this, it's a nice reminder that Texas has no:
At least as far as I know. If this is important to you, go to the source.
*****************************
Legacy Fund: May, 2024, Deposits
Legacy Fund data here.
North Dakota budget: probably easiest to read is at Ballotpedia.
North Dakota state office of management and budget.
Deposits:
Locator: 47988BIGOIL.
First of all, some/many/most of these recently announced mergers / acquisitions will never close. Too much scrutiny. I hope I'm wrong. But I know I'm not.
From Bloomberg today, fascinating reading:
ConocoPhillips’ $17 billion deal for Marathon Oil Corp. fits neatly into the trend of consolidation in US oil, but it also provides a lens to survey the shifting balance of power in the global industry.
Go back to the start of the century. The biggest Western oil company was, as it is today, Exxon, weighing in at a market value of about $200 billion. But Britain’s BP Plc, fattened by the 1998 takeover of Amoco, wasn’t far behind at more than $190 billion. Conoco, before its merger with Phillips, was worth just $11 billion.
After yesterday’s announcement, ConocoPhillips is heading for a market value of more than $150 billion, dwarfing BP’s current $103 billion capitalization.
BP’s travails — from the Macondo oil-spill catastrophe to a misfiring energy-transition strategy — are well-documented, and plenty has been written about the relative valuations of oil equities in the US and Europe. But it’s still instructive to dig a little deeper.
The big difference between the two companies is that while BP remains a fully integrated wellhead-to-gas-station oil major, ConocoPhillips got rid of refineries more than a decade ago.
For the past five years, the US firm has carefully honed its portfolio to break even at less than $40 a barrel, leaving ample headroom for buybacks and dividends.
BP and the combined Conoco-Marathon pump about the same amount of oil and gas. So investors are giving little or no credit for BP’s giant refining and marketing business, which sells fuel to millions of motorists daily, as well as a world-class trading operation.
One striking statistic: BP employs almost 90,000 people, Conoco and Marathon just 12,000.
What to make of the comparison? First, it’s a vivid illustration of the US premium — it’s little wonder Shell Plc boss Wael Sawan and TotalEnergies SE’s Patrick Pouyanne have floated the idea of a New York listing.
Second, it shows how far BP’s star has waned in the past quarter of a century. After shaping the modern oil industry from the US to Russia, the producer is now a laggard.
Once considered a supermajor, the company has been outstripped by a super-independent.
COP: lousy returns lately; five-year, almost 100% return, without accounting for dividends.
Lousy returns lately but perhaps the one stock in my portfolio that lets me sleep comfortably at night. My cost basis must be trending toward zero and the company just announced a 34% increase in its quarterly "base" dividend. However, the 78-cent base quarterly dividend is equal to the last COP "total" dividend (58-cent base + 20-cent variable) so there's a bit of smoke-and-mirrors there if COP doesn't include a nice variable dividend.
Don't forget, over the years:
But this is interesting / concerning? Was there a huge cut in the 2Q24 dividend? Sort of missed by everyone?
Bottom line, 2023 dividends:
70+51+60+51+60+60+58 = $4.10 / $115 = 3.6% in line with its indicated yield in the ticker graphic above.
Locator: 47987AMZN.
GrubHub generally costs $9.99 / month; now "free" add-on with Amazon Prime. Minimum order: $12.
Locator: 47986B.
Smoke and mirrors:
Shell: to cut staff from its offshore wind business. Link here.
India: power demand hits an all-time high; heat wave. Link here.
The Permian: getting gassier. Nice article alongside the RBN Energy blog this morning.
Getting desperate: Schumer -- yes, that Schumer -- calling for investigations over suggestions of collusion in the oil sector.
**************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $79.08. Down overnight, but just went "green" --> $79.30. Whoo-hoo!
Friday, May 31, 2024: 43 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 306 for the year
None.
Thursday, May 30, 2024: 43 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 306 for the year
RBN Energy: how Energy Transfer's WTG Midstream buy will add to its Permian heft. Just as we are starting to see more articles on the Permian getting gassier.
Energy Transfer is yet again slaking its acquisition appetite by gobbling up another natural gas gatherer and processor to further expand its already formidable Permian footprint. The company announced May 28 that it has struck a $3.25 billion cash-and-stock deal to buy WTG Midstream, a West Texas-based and private equity-backed operator whose Permian assets will boost the acquiring company’s access to gas and NGL volumes as the U.S. midstream sector shows continued consolidation. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how the addition of WTG’s midstream holdings will enhance Energy Transfer’s asset lineup, including its ongoing NGL export and storage expansions.
This is a pretty cool graphic.
Remember this graphic from October 16, 2015?
