Friday, August 13, 2021

Chesapeake And Vine, Louisiana -- August 13, 2021

Earlier this week I posted a story -- Chesapeake and Vine in Louisiana. I really wasn't all that interested in the story but the Louisiana angle caught my eye and I posted the story

How interesting. Much more to the story. See the update at the linked post above.

Week 32: August 8, 2021 -- August 14, 2021

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

  • Afghanistan
  • Tokyo Olympics end; lowest television ratings on record

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Wells:

Pipelines:

Fracking:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

ESG:

Early Friday Night Ramblings -- What A Great Country -- It's Great To Be Back Home -- August 13, 2021

NFL: last night, a Thursday night, we had the Washington team play the New England Patriots. I don't know any more than that; I did not watch. Now, surprise, surprise, assuming this is live, on a Friday night, the Buffalo Bills are playing the Detroit Lions. Again, I won't watch. I was just surfing through Hulu. I am absolutely amazed at what Hulu offers: in this case, it's the NFL Network. Are you kidding me? I do not know if the NFL Network will be available "forever" on Hulu. Whatever.

Cathie Wood: I don't know if folks had a chance to read the AirMail.news story regarding Cathie Wood which I linked the other day. I can't find my post now which suggests I posted it and then took it down for some reason. Maybe it's there and I just can't find it. Whatever.

Anyway, I finally got back to the article and read it again. It's well worth the read if you've heard a bit about Cathie Wood and ARKK and don't know anything or very little about her. 

I was curious from where she came. I guess in Spanglish, I was curious de donde vino ella. LOL. [For those who do not know, Sophia and I are "learning" Spanish together using the Duolingo app and having boatloads of fun.]

An interesting story, Cathie Wood. Long story short, no glass ceiling for her:

  • oldest daughter of Irish immigrants, she is now 65 years old -- younger than I but much older than I realized;
  • grew up in Los Angeles; her coming-of-age years, the late 1970s?
  • graduated from University of Southern California, my alma mater, with a degree in finance and economics
    • mentored by Arthur Laffer, economist, trickle-down economics
  • Laffer helped her get a job at Capital Group, the huge LA-based asset-management firm
    • three years at Capital
  • moved to NYC to join Jennison Associates, another large asset-management firm
    • stayed at Jennison for eighteen years, cycling through various jobs
  • 1998, about forty-two years old: co-founded the hedge fund Tupelo Capital Management
  • three years later joined AllianceBernstein as chief investment officer and the manager of a $5 billion portfolio
  • 2014: "the story goes" -- Alliance not all that keen on her idea for actively managed exchange-traded funds; so about fifteen years after she joined Alliance, she founded Ark Tech EFT,
  • part of the seed money coming from Bill Hwang, the now defunct family office Archegos Capital (Archegos: another story this year)
    • it was a chance meeting with Hwang (or was it?).
  • Ark Investment Management: less than seven years after she started it, now more than $53 billion under management;

Street cred.

I was mesmerized when I first saw her in an interview on CNBC, or should I say when I first paid attention to her. It was as if, to plagiarize a phrase, "she emerged de novo like Minerva from the head of Zeus." 

De donde vino ella. Now I know.

Break, break.

Somewhere recently on the blog -- actually I guess that's in draft also -- recently I've become a convert to "bitcoin." I don't own bitcoin but I do know what it is and it will be a viable currency. Up until two weeks ago, I had no interest in "bitcoin," and pretty much ignored it. Now, 180° turn.

One of the better discussions during our family reunion was talking about technology. Many of my extended family members are high-functioning engineer-types who are involved in high-level technology at pretty big technology companies.

For "bitcoin" to become mainstream, I said there needs to be a tipping point. I mentioned that one of the "first" steps toward that tipping point was Square. 

The next step was that $29 billion deal with Australian Afterpay.

We have yet to see the "tipping point" itself but I know what that tipping point will be but I'm keeping it a secret. I don't want to give it away. LOL. Seriously, my skin is not thick enough to absorb the push back and laughter. But regular readers of the blog, knowing my craziness, interests, and posts, can probably guess. 

From the linked Airmail.news article:

As probably only Wood could do, she recently corralled billionaires Elon Musk, the co-founder and CEO of Tesla, and Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of both Square and Twitter (Wood's 17th-largest holding), to join her for an hour-long virtual panel discussion to talk about Bitcoin in all its wonderfulness. 

Apparently I wasn't the only one that enjoyed it -- a "full reload, July 21, 2021" at this link.

Enough of this, time to enjoy some music. 

Oh, before I get to the music, one last story from the linked Airmail.news story that almost knocked me off my chair. 

Quick: over at the sidebar at the right, I have something called "the next big thing." Quick, for those who have been reading the blog since the beginning, what was the "first" next big thing?

The answer: Netflix. 

For me Netflix was "the next big thing" when I first mentioned it on March 21, 2013.

So, what does that have to do with Cathie Wood? From the linked Airmail.news article: Cathie Wood's meeting with Bill Hwang was apparently completely innocent, unarranged. 

On CNBC, Cathie Wood said, "On our way back from that event, we --Bill Hwang and Cathie Wood -- were exchanging stock ideas back then -- this was back in 2014 or thereabouts -- and I know he bought into one of the stocks in which we had a high degree of confidence, Netflix."

Wow, wow, wow.

Street cred.

********************************
Google



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What Is Love?

Twenty-Three Active Rigs; Fourteen Active Operators; Hess With Four New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed (XTO, BR, Enerplus, Others); One Re-Entry Permit; Four CLR DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 13, 2021

Active rigs:

$68.44
8/13/202108/13/202008/13/201908/13/201808/13/2017
Active Rigs23*11616057

From the daily activity report: 23 active rigs

  • CLR (7);
  • Hess (3);
  • MRO (2);
  • Petro-Hunt;
  • Kraken;
  • Eagle Operating;
  • Ovintiv;
  • RimRock;
  • Petroshale;
  • Slawson;
  • Bruin;
  • Hunt;
  • Whiting;
  • Oasis;

Four new permits, #38484 - #38487, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Wheelock (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for four GO-Johnson wells in Wheelock, sited in NENW 26-156-98;
    • the wells will be sited 569 FNL and between 2065 FWL and 2164 FWL

Fourteen permits renewed:

  • XTO (5): three Roust permits and two Abby Federal permits, the former in Williams County; the latter in Dunn County;
  • BR (5): four Three Rivers permits and one Three Washers permit, all in McKenzie County
  • Enerplus (2): one Iron permit in Dunn County; one Octave permit in Dunn County
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: one Wade permit in Divide County
  • Lime Rock Resources: one Harland Rebsom permit in Dunn County

One re-entry permit:

  • 03951, Scout Energy Management, Fryburg Heath-Madison Unit E-805, Billings County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) completed:

  • 37112, 1,158, CLR, Kate 3-19HSL1, Big Gulch, no production data,
  • 37113, 1,793, CLR, Kate 4-19HSL, Big Gulch, no production data,
  • 37114, 1,153, CLR, Kate 5-19H1, Big Gulch, no production data,
  • 37115, 1,436, CLR, Kate 6-19H, Big Gulch, no production data,

Notes From All Over -- August 13, 2021

Updates

August 15, 2021: I just uploaded the screenshot of a cup of coffee priced at $4.50 and I have a K-cup for 21 cents. I'm going to go have a cup of coffee. LOL.

Original Post

Katie Ledecky: alone on the NYSE closing bell stage! Has her own "logo." Interviewed on closing bell. 

Inflation: lots of talk about inflation but doesn't seem to be impacting the market or quality of life for Americans. In fact, listening to the talking heads on CNBC, if folks are concerned about inflation, stop buying things. LOL. Stop buying unnecessary plastic things, paraphrasing Nanci Griffith, RIP. 

There's plenty of beer at $9.99; quit buying $12.99 beer and my hunch the more expensive beer would trend toward $9.99. Just saying. The most interesting thing: gasoline prices seem out of line (on the high side) compared to the price of oil. Check out the percentage of imported crude oil.

Inflation: remove food, energy, rent, health, lumber, and used cars, and it looks like inflation is not all that bad. According to one expert on CNBC the inflationary trajectory has already changed direction (declining).  

Consumer Sentiment Index: is the mainstream media news self-fulfilling? From Breitbart Busness Digest --

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 70.2 from the final July reading of 81.2
Professor Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist, pointed out that the index has recorded larger losses only six other times in the past half-century
In each of those declines, there was a connection to sudden negative changes in the economy, such as last summer's shutdown or the financial crisis. In other words, the American public is reacting to recent news as if something very bad had just happened.

Coffee: a few weeks ago, talking heads and Starbucks spokesman said coffee was going to get significantly more expensive -- drought in South America; global economy opening up. 

K-cups over at Amazon run at 35 cents to 85 cents a piece. I won't pay more than 35 cents if I don't have to. One week ago Amazon had a sale on the brand I buy, at 26 cents per K-cup. Think about that: 26 cents for a cup of coffee. Even McDonald's charges 69 cents for a senior cup (that was last year when I last visited), and Starbucks trends towards $1.75 for a tall black coffee. 

I bought two cartons of that 26-cent K-cups and sent one carton each to one extended family member and to an AirBnB house where we stayed a year ago, and thoroughly enjoyed the experience. We will probably never stay there again, but it's been fun to send them a box of K-cups every few months. 

Holy mackerel: Amazon has that K-cup coffee down to 21 cents per K-cup. Less than a quarter for a cup of coffee. Give me a break. Link here, graphic below. And for a subscription, down to less than 20.4 cents. I have trouble understanding why mom-and-pop donut shoppes aren't subscribing -- 20 cents "wholesale" and selling it for a buck a cup. Wow, they must be buying coffee from their own source for less than twenty cents. I don't know. Imagine the margins on Starbucks coffee.

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US imported crude oil:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 41

December 23, 2020

5.6

0.140

-12.90%

Week 42

December 30, 2020

5.3

-0.238

-14.40%

Week 43

January 6, 2021

5.4

0.043

-18.10%

Week 44

January 13, 2021

6.2

0.900

14.90%

Week 45

January 22, 2021

6.0

-0.194

-11.80%

Week 46

January 27, 2021

5.1

-1.000

-13.90%

Week 47

February 3, 2021

6.5

1.400

-9.20%

Week 48

February 10, 2021

5.9

-0.700

-12.00%

Week 49

February 18, 2021

5.9

0.041


Week 50

February 24, 2021

4.6

-1.300

-13.30%

Week 51

March 3, 2021

6.3

1.700

-12.80%

Week 52

March 10, 2021

5.7

-0.600


Week 53

March 17, 2021

5.3

-0.332

13.90%

Week 54

March 24, 2021

5.6

0.300

-9.50%

Week 55

March 31, 2021

6.1

0.500

-9.40%

Week 56

April 7, 2021

6.3

0.119

-5.00%

Week 57

April 14, 2021

5.9

-0.411

7.00%

Week 58

April 21, 2021

5.4

-0.448

5.00%

Week 59

April 28, 2021

6.6

1.200

10.70%

Week 60

May 5, 2021

5.5

-1.200

7.80%

Week 61

May 12, 2021

5.5

0.037

7.60%

Week 62

May 19, 2021

6.4

0.900

10.90%

Week 63

May 26, 2021

6.3

-0.138

0.50%

Week 64

June 3, 2021

5.6

-0.600

-0.70%

Week 65

June 10, 2021

6.6

-1.000

-1.90%

Week 66

June 16, 2021

6.7

0.108

-5.90%

Week 67

June 23, 2021

6.9

0.197

-1.00%

Week 68

June 30, 2021

6.4

-0.500

2.80%

Week 69

July 8, 2021

5.9

-0.500

-2.20%

Week 70

July 14, 2021

6.2

0.347

-0.10%

Week 71

July 21, 2021

7.1

0.900

2.90%

Week 72

July 28, 2021

6.5

-0.600

6.90%

Week 73

August 4, 2021

6.4

-0.075

15.80%

Week 74

August 11, 2021

6.5

-0.036

16.30%

That Three-Well Pad Fire North Of Charlson -- Update -- Covid-19 Update -- Southern States Getting Religion? August 13, 2021

Tracked here

Update.

From The Williston Herald:

"There may be some contaminated soil in the berms built around a three-well fire near Lake Sakakawea, but DEQ inspectors said the site looked better than they had expected, and they don't anticipate cleanup taking very long."

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Covid-19

Louisiana: has the fourth wave peaked? It's subtle, but possible

Texas: third wave continues; deaths not yet on pace with new cases. Link here.

Florida: third wave is the worst wave so far; third wave is now greater than the second wave. Interestingly enough, the daily new deaths seems to have peaked. Really? Link here.

South Dakota: way too early to see the impact of the Sturgis Rally, first full week ends today. Having said that, number of daily new cases up a bit. Daily new deaths negligible. Most interesting: compared to three and four waves of Covid-19 since this whole thing began, South Dakota has experienced only one wave, lasting from September 3, 2020 - March 3, 2021. Link here.

North Dakota: almost identical graphs with that of South Dakota, and North Dakota had not motorcycle rally. Link here.

Iowa: this will be the most interesting state to follow for the next six weeks. The Iowa State Fair opened this weekend. One million unmasked visitors and no immunizations required. The "Field of Dreams" baseball game was played there last night. Iowa's graphics exactly match that of North Dakota and South Dakota, except possible an early first wave (deaths), but only one wave for new daily cases. Most interesting, a second wave seems to be developing -- and if it does, it should be noted this second wave began before the Iowa State Fair and before the Sturgis Rally. I doubt many riders came from / through Iowa. The vast majority would be local, west, and south. Link here.

Wow, wow, wow. Assuming the CDC numbers are correct, "we" haven't had such a good day for vaccinations in a long, long time. In the most recent 24-hour period, the US came close to administering one million vaccinations.



A

B

C

E

F





Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose

Fully Vaccinated

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans (>18) Considered Fully Vaccinated

Delta from day before

Friday

August 13, 2021

354,777,950

197,081,471

167,699,170

918,056

102.82%

65.43%

0.13%

Thursday

August 12, 2021

353,859,894

196,505,543

167,354,729

654,350

102.83%

65.29%

0.10%

Wednesday

August 11, 2021

353,205,544

196,077,952

167,105,507

654,600

102.82%

65.19%

0.10%

Tuesday 

August 10, 2021

352,550,944

195,646,711

166,861,912

617,769

102.82%

65.10%

0.08%

Monday

August 9, 2021

351,933,175

195,222,906

166,654,374

532,245

102.83%

65.02%

0.07%

Sunday

August 8, 2021

351,400,930

194,866,738

166,477,481

773,742

102.83%

64.95%

0.11%

Saturday

August 7, 2021

350,627,188

194,346,486

166,203,176

839,709

102.83%

64.84%

0.11%

Friday

August 6, 2021

349,787,479

193,764,457

165,918,256

821,060

102.83%

64.73%

0.23%

Thursday

August 5, 2021

348,966,419

193,199,353

165,334,987

863,941

102.74%

64.50%

0.00%

Wednesday 

August 4, 2021

348,102,478

192,614,017

165,334,987

725,329

102.83%

64.50%

0.10%

Tuesday

August 3, 2021

347,377,149

192,120,576

165,081,416

452,804

102.83%

64.40%

0.06%

Monday

August 2, 2021

346,924,345

191,818,585

164,919,666

467,676

102.83%

64.34%

0.06%

Sunday

August 1, 2021

346,456,669

191,498,983

164,757,423

816,203

102.83%

64.28%

0.12%

Saturday

July 31, 2021

345,640,466

190,982,149

164,446,964

711,952

102.83%

64.16%

0.10%

Friday

July 30, 2021

344,928,514

190,509,183

164,184,080

856,919

102.83%

64.05%

0.12%

Thursday 

July 29, 2021

344,071,595

189,945,907

163,868,916

710,071

102.83%

63.93%

0.11%

Wednesday

July 28, 2021

343,361,524

189,494,180

163,588,042

753,984

102.83%

63.82%

0.11%

Tuesday

July 27, 2021

342,607,540

188,996,475

163,312,474

395,489

102.83%

63.71%

0.05%

Monday

July 26, 2021

342,212,051

188,729,282

163,173,366

393,083

102.83%

63.66%

0.06%

Sunday

July 25, 2021

341,818,968

188,472,188

163,025,726

778,996

102.83%

63.60%

0.12%

Saturday

July 24, 2021

341,039,972

187,982,826

162,725,812

676,050

102.84%

63.49%

0.11%

Friday 

July 23, 2021

340,363,922

187,579,557

162,435,276

600,157

102.84%

63.37%

0.10%

One has to go all the way back to June, 2020, a year ago so see more than a million vaccinations in one day.

Wednesday

July 7, 2021

331,651,464

182,896,080

157,908,171

349,070

102.76%

61.61%

0.15%

Tuesday

July 6, 2021

331,302,394

182,734,979

157,518,549

349,071

102.70%

61.45%

0.00%

Monday

July 5, 2021

330,953,323

182,573,877

157,518,549

349,070

102.76%

61.45%

0.08%

Sunday

July 4, 2021

330,604,253

182,412,776

157,323,738

633,702

102.76%

61.38%

0.13%

Saturday 

July 3, 2021

329,970,551

182,109,860

156,982,549

1,161,081

102.76%

61.24%

0.28%

Friday

July 2, 2021

328,809,470

181,650,678

156,255,896

657,166

102.77%

60.96%

0.14%

Thursday

July 1, 2021

328,152,304

181,339,416

155,884,601

1,499,729

102.76%

60.82%

0.33%

Wednesday 

June 30, 2021

326,652,576

180,639,809

155,042,133

1,499,729

102.76%

60.49%

0.33%

Tuesday 

June 29, 2021

325,152,847

179,940,202

154,199,664

738,476

102.76%

60.16%

0.17%

Monday

June 28, 2021

324,414,371

179,615,165

153,776,118

1,087,043

102.77%

59.99%

0.29%

Sunday

June 27, 2021

323,327,328

179,261,269

153,028,665

1,204,225

102.77%

59.70%

0.33%

Saturday

June 26, 2021

322,123,103

178,873,816

152,184,243

923,724

102.77%

59.37%

0.22%

Friday

June 25, 2021

321,199,379

178,491,147

151,615,554

512,174

102.77%

59.15%

0.14%

Thursday

June 24, 2021

320,687,205

178,331,677

151,252,034

815,152

102.77%

59.01%

0.18%

Wednesday

June 23, 2021

319,872,053

177,948,892

150,787,303

648,209

102.77%

58.83%

0.14%

Tuesday

June 22, 2021

319,223,844

177,635,067

150,424,675

647,403

102.77%

58.69%

0.15%

Monday

June 21, 2021

318,576,441

177,342,954

150,046,006

729,322

102.77%

58.54%

0.18%

Sunday

June 22, 2021

317,847,119

177,040,048

149,585,585

729,322

102.76%

58.36%

0.18%

Saturday

June 19, 2021

317,117,797

176,737,141

149,125,164

1,069,021

102.76%

58.18%

0.26%

Friday

June 18, 2021

316,048,776

176,290,249

148,459,003

1,079,390

102.75%

57.92%

0.27%

Thursday

June 17, 2021

314,969,386

175,867,860

147,758,585

2,054,216

102.75%

57.65%

0.51%