Weekend Update On Global Warming: Antarctic Ice Thickening; Tons Of Snow To Dump On Mt Ranier -- Kennedy Clan Notified; Silly Season In New Hampshire -- October 31, 2015

I was ready to head for bed but I felt compelled to provide a "shout-out" to the Kennedy clan in Boston that if they want to see snow, they might want to book a flight out west. IceAgeNow is reporting that they're expecting tons of snow on Mt Ranier overnight:

Four meters of snow in just four days!

As of yesterday morning, NOAA was predicting between 122 and 162 inches of snow (10 to 13½ FEET!) on Mt. Rainier at higher elevations.

Combined with 65 mph winds and temperatures in the 20-30 degree Fahrenheit range, wind chills will drop to near zero Fahrenheit.

Farther north, 10,000-foot Mt. Baker was forecast to get 70 inches (almost 2 meters) of snow in the next 3 days.

Snow levels will start high but will drop to as low as 4,000-feet by Sunday.

As most folks know, the Kennedy clan told their grandchildren back in the 20th century, that they might not ever see snow again. For the Kennedy clan, Mt Ranier is in the United States, in Washington. State. Not DC.

Cold, too.

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NASA: Antarctic Ice Is Getting Thicker

No Explanation For The Incredibly, Horrendous Rise In Sea Levels (0.3 Millimeter/Year)

By the way, speaking of cold, it turns out that the Antarctic is not melting. [This is not news for regular readers of the blog; this is old news. But this is about as definitive as it gets.]

NASA is reporting: the Antarctic is getting thicker, not thinner. NASA is also reporting they have no explanation for the "fact" that the earth's seas are rising ... 0.27 mm per year.

Yes, you read that correctly: the earth's seas, according to NASA:

• are rising about  0.30 mm per year; and,
• they have no explanation for this incredibly, horrendous rise.

At this rate, 100 years from now, the seas will have risen 30 mm = 3 cm = 1.18 inch.

Yup, 1.18 inch. How about if  everyone who lives on the beach just step(s) back 1.18 inch when building new structures?

Memo to self: remember to check the popsickle stick rulers I placed in the beach last summer next time I get to southern California. 

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Okay, So It's Getting Colder

Let's Keystone Everything -- New Hampshire

Updates

January 5, 2016: Massachusetts lawmakers are told there is no chance in hell that the state will meet state-mandated global warming emissions controls. The Boston Globe reports:

State officials say they hope to meet the law’s requirements, but they say it will be far easier if lawmakers help out by passing a bill that would compel utilities to sign long-term contracts to buy hydroelectric power from Canada.

Environmental advocates insist the state has fallen behind and needs a major course correction — not just action on the hydro plan — to meet the law’s requirements. They also note that even if lawmakers pass a hydroelectric bill, the expensive power lines might never get built. They would probably pass through New Hampshire, where the proposal remains highly controversial.

New England does not want

• more transmission lines from Canada's hydroelectric plants;
• more natural gas pipelines
• more CBR; or,
• wind turbines off-shore.

That pretty much leaves the Henry-David-Thoreau-wood-burning stoves used before the Civil War, and wood chips from South Carolina. 

Original Post

 

Regular readers know this story. New England doesn't want the pipelines that would bring them natural gas to heat their homes during the winter. There was talk of buying Canadian hydroelectricity but that would require high voltage transmission lines, which I guess they are calling the "Northern Pass."

But modern-day Henry David Thoreaus (Jerry Curran and Catherine Corkery) don't want those transmission lines -- even if they are buried. The Concord Monitor is reporting this nonsense.

Only in America.

Hey, let's come back next spring and see how this all works out.

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Shock And Awe? Probably Not

Is it just me, but does sending 50 combat troops to the Mideast to take on ISIS sound like something you would do if you were president?

Random Note On Dividends; Random Note On New Ethanol Plant In Iowa -- October 31, 2015

Update on dividends. I think everyone has wondered when the majro oil companies would start cutting dividends. Finally, a major oil company is cutting its dividend and by a huge amount: from 21 cents to 5 cents a share -- Marathon (MRO) announced the cut. On the other hand:

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s biggest oil explorer, declared a quarterly dividend on Wednesday that will raise the 2015 payout for the 33rd straight year.

Within hours of Exxon’s announcement, Chevron Corp. disclosed a payout that will boost its annual remittance for a 28th straight year.

Oil producers as diverse as Britain’s BP Plc, Norway’s Statoil ASA, and ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. of the U.S. are following the same track, maintaining or lifting dividends while curtailing other investments. Dividends have been viewed as sacrosanct because yield-hungry investors rely on oil stocks to generate income.

It really is quite impressive: in 2010, XOM paid 44 cents quarterly; the company is currently paying 73 cents.

*********************************

Ethanol Production

Note: in reply to the reader who sent me this story, I correct my reply. I mid-read; this ethanol plant is producing ethanol for feedstock for a purpose other than fuel. 

A reader sent me this story from Forbes:

• DuPont, the chemicals company based in Wilmington, Del., has begun operations at one of the world’s first commercial-scale advanced biorefineries in central Iowa.
• The $225 million plant produces cellulosic ethanol from corn husks – the non-kernel parts of corn plants.
• The cellulosic ethanol plant is designed to produce 30 million gallons of fuel-grade ethanol annually but is not expected to operate at full capacity until 2016. The core biofuels technology involved is a bacteria similar to what is used to distill tequila. DuPont has inked a deal to sell the cellulosic ethanol produced at the plant to Procter & Gamble, which plans to use it to make laundry detergent.

Note: this is not the part of the corn husk we eat. 

However, not knowing anything about ethanol plants, I was curious how this compared with plants that use corn.

Remember the Torrington, WY, plant we talked about earlier this year. That plant used 3.5 million bushes of corn or about 90,000 dry tons. Considered relatively inefficient, it produced 12 million gallons annually. 12 million gallons / 90,000 dry tons = 134 gallons / ton.

The DuPont plant in Iowa: 375,000 dry tons to produce 30 million gallons of ethanol. 30 million gallons / 375,000 dry tons = 80 gallons / ton.

This compares to two other new cellulosic ethanol plants, one in Emmetsburg, IA (20 million gallons of celluosic ethanol annually) and the ohter in Hugoton, KS (25 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually).

I am way beyond my comfort zone here; my numbers and calculations may be way off. If this is important to you, go to the source and do your own math.

By the way, that Torrington, WY, plant mentioned above? It is closing; it was found to be not economically feasible once the state tax credit expired. Whatever.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Dots to connect some day:

• Birdman, the movie
• "What We Talk About When We Talk About Love" -- Raymond Carver
• Diotima
• Socrates
• Plato's The Symposium
• The Waves, Virginia Woolf

Why I Started Going To McDonald's Instead Of Starbucks For My Coffee -- October 31, 2015; Halloween: A Good Day To Be Thinking About Demons

Updates

Later, 12:13 p.m. Cenral Time: two seniors, grandparents, no doubt, have just sat down across from me in McDonald's with their grandson (no doubt), who appears to be about 12 years old. They have all ordered a pancake and sausage breakfast.

When I came in, a bit after 11:00 a.m., I also ordered off the breakfast menu. Very interesting.

Saturday mornings in north Texas belong to "other" breakfast restaurants, but we seldom go any more: the lines are way too long, and the waits are upwards of 90 minutes. Yes, the Texas breakfasts are that good. But now McDonald's has added a new wrinkle.

Something tells me that we will be reading articles at the end of this business quarter about the decision made by McDonald's to offer breakfast all day long.

It's very possible someone is going to look like a genius.

It would have been fun to sit in on the focus groups and the PowerPoint Presentations when the idea of "all-day breakfast" was being pitched at McDonald's.

Original Post 

Okay, this makes my day.

I slept in a bit late this morning. I did some early morning blogging at home, but wanted to go out for coffee.

I'm now sitting in McDonald's -- it's a short bike ride -- and the north Texas torrential rains have dissipated, making it a beautiful day, albeit a bit cool for an  old man riding a bicycle in cut-offs and a blue Hawaiian shirt. But I digress.

I find myself in McDonald's because I quit going to Starbucks about four months ago when Starbucks announced a fairly healthy increase in the price of their coffee. So, on principle alone, I won't go to Starbucks except when there are no reasonable alternatives.

So, here I am -- having just sat down, and almost ready to sip my McDonald's coffee, but I have to wait -- it is wait too hot. But I can nibble on the hash brown now that McDonald's serves breakfast all day long. The hash brown is on the dollar menu, I think. The coffee is 50 cents for seniors, but I think they generally charge me full price -- $1.00 -- I never quibble. The service is outstanding at this particular McDonalds, as it is at the other McDonald's at the other end of the street that I also visit periodically -- the thing they both have in common: the managers are women and Hispanic. But I digress.

But here I am -- having just sat down, and almost read to sip my McDonald's coffee, so I set the cup down and log on. Wi-fi in McDonald's comes on immediately. Sip of coffee.

I check my mail. First e-mail comes from my daughter who sent me this story, saying it reminded her of me: Why I Started Going To McDonald's Instead of Starbucks For My Coffee.

I haven't read the article yet. After I do, I might come back and complete this post. Or not.

**************************

It was a short article. I'm back. The writer had three reasons: cost, convenience, and calories. Okay, the third "c" was a stretch: it had to do with McDonald's much more expansive menu which I alluded to above.

Cost, of course, is a no brainer.

That second one, convenience is very, very interesting. At this time of day, the line at Starbucks would be nearly out the door and it would be several minutes of waiting, which in the big scheme of things never bothered me. I read a book while standing in line. But if one has a life and needs to be somewhere, McDonald's will get you there faster.

The writer mentions that it is not uncommon for orders -- especially food orders -- to be mixed up at Starbucks. Yes, that is a problem at the busier Starbucks at the busier times. I have experienced it more times than I care to remember.

But the biggest reason I no longer go to Starbucks (now that price / principle have been addressed) is I could never get any work done there or any reading done there (except while standing in line). I would always try to find a comfortable couch or easy chair and invariably everyone around me would want to talk politics (in Massachusetts) or the housing market (in Grapevine, in the DFW metroplex).

Now I can blog and still have some time to read. The books in front of me today: The Wooden Horse by Keld Zeruneith; and, Memoirs of Hecate County, by Edmund Wilson.

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Notes To The Granddaughters

This is really, really cool. I am reading a most difficult book, The Daemon Knows, Harold Bloom, c. 2015. This is Harold Bloom's most recent, and perhaps his last (except for what his estate publishes posthumously). On the surface it is a re-hash of all he has written before, simply packaged with a different theme. It doesn't take long for someone who didn't study literature in an Ivy League college to figure out what Bloom means by "daemon" but it's amazing how difficult it is to explain what he's trying to say.

I read bits and pieces of it periodically. It's too challenging to read more than a few pages at a time every few days or so.

I am also re-reading Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse, and today, coincidentally, I connect the background of Bloom's "daemon" to its origin. The following is taking out of context, so it might be hard to understand but the message is there. From page 372, Aeschylus' Orestes:

In particular, this innocence appears when the chorus resists relating its knowledge of the daimon curse that has ravaged the Atreid family to Kassandra's prophesies in which she gathers together and presents the sins of the past and the horrific deeds to come. In short, the chorus refuses in its own present to couple the past and the future together. That this inevitable sequence of events occurs completely on it own means that hte chorus' insight becomes its fate. It is gradually forced to look the facts in the face, which is why the hmn on the doctrine of suffering assumes a tone of tragicirony, because when it utters these words, the chorus has not yet learned this lesson.

Later in the book, the author notes that Plato argues that Socrates received his knowledge from the gods. Socrates, was, in other words, a daemonic man, page 508.

Later, page 509, daemonic refers to a human being who, touched by the divine (as Odysseus was by Athene), becomes incomprehensible to those around him. And it is very much the case for Socrates that the daimonic aspect applies to his doctrine, works, and life.

The section concludes with a paragraph that out of context will be very hard to understand, but it's worth posting for the archives:

Socrates/Plato takes yet another step in the dialogue's etymological explanation of the content of the words heros and eros, which Socrates/Plato believes have the same roots. His point is that heroes are demigods (either on the paternal or maternal side), who know how to ask questions (erotan, Cr. 398 d) and thus constitute a class of seekers of wisdom. 

A syllogism connecting these statements might be:

• Socrates is a good man, so he is a daemon
• he has achieved this goodness by questioning, that is to say by the virtue of eros, 
• which makes him into a heros, a demigod, placed as a daimonic mediator between heaven and earth.

Wow.

********************************

Daemon

I am adding this on August 28, 2016.

The word daemon, introduced to me by Harold Bloom, has always fascinated me. Today while reading Leon Edel's introduction to The Complete Notebooks of Henry James: The Authoritative and Definitive Edition, c. 1987, this passage:

The Demon of Patience: There came a moment in James's notebooks when he began to speak of his "good angel" and to invoke his attendant Genius, using the word in its original Greek sense as a protecting spirit. The Greeks called such tutelary spirits δαίμων -- daimon -- and the poets described them as dwelling on earth, unseen by mortals, ministers of the gods, guardians of men and justice.

Daimons, the Greek philosophers taught, were allotted from birth and for life.

Henry James accepted this Graeco-Roman mythology for himself, as we can read in a note he sets down while staying at the Coronado Beach Hotel in California in 1905:

I sit here after long weeks ... in front of my arrears ... and can only invoke my familiar demon of patience, who always comes, doesn't he?

Wow, for me a better understand of daimon, and the mention of the Coronado Beach Hotel takes me back to the first time ever that I visited San Diego. Hmmm.

The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face, Roberta Flack

Rigzone Provides Update On Global Oil Production -- October 31, 2015

Rigzone is reporting:

After years of declining output, major oil companies have ramped up crude production this year, just as they are being battered by a plunge in prices due to already excessive supplies. Executives have taken pride in seeing billions worth of investments in new technologies and new fields in places such as Brazil, the North Sea and West Africa kick in and boost output.

Some excerpts from the article:

According to Reuters calculations, oil production from nine of the world's largest oil and gas producers rose a combined 8 percent in the first nine months of the year to over 10 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since 2013.

The figures include Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly-traded oil company, which said on Friday its production leapt 10 percent over the nine months to 2.3 million bpd, but that its third-quarter profit nearly halved.

France's Total saw a 21 percent increase in oil output in the nine-month period to 1.232 million barrels per day on the back of start-ups and ramp-ups including the CLOV project in Angola and the West Franklin Phase 2 in the UK North Sea.

Global oil output this year is expected to rise by a record 2.4 million bpd from 2014, driven mainly by U.S. shale oil output, Iraq production and Brazil, according to Wood Mackenzie. The growth outstrips an estimated increase in demand of nearly 1.5 million bpd, it said.

But it is not only new production. Oil companies have in recent years invested in technology to squeeze the maximum out of existing fields. The natural decline rate of oil fields operated by Shell decreased to 3 percent per year in 2015 from 4.5 to 5 percent several years ago, according to Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry.

I remember some years ago -- or more accurately, many, many years ago when I read annual reports very closely, companies like XOM were always concerned about increasing production year-over-year.

How things have changed. 

Just How Bad Is It? ObamaCare Premiums In Tennessee Up 36%; Iowa Up 29% -- NY Times -- October 31, 2015

While reading this, remember that nearly half of all non-profit healthcare co-ops created under ObamaCare in 2011 have collapsed due to inadequate Democratic funding. 

There is no possible way to spin this and The New York Times does not:

In Tennessee, the state insurance commissioner approved a 36 percent rate increase for the largest health insurer in the state’s individual marketplace. In Iowa, the commissioner approved rate increases averaging 29 percent for the state’s dominant insurer.

Health insurance consumers logging into HealthCare.gov on Sunday for the first day of the Affordable Care Act’s third open enrollment season may be in for sticker shock, unless they are willing to shop around. Federal officials acknowledged on Friday that many people would need to pick new plans to avoid substantial increases in premiums.

Wow. 36%. 39%.

Those are just the premiums. And what do these premiums get you? $5,000 deductibles.

“It really shocks me to see these plans with $5,000 deductibles,” Belinda Greb, 56, of Vida, OR, said in an interview. “It becomes an area of stress as opposed to making me feel secure.”

Federal subsidies for low- and moderate-income consumers will keep pace with premiums for a benchmark plan, the second-lowest-cost “silver” plan, Mr. Frank said, and consumers who choose that plan can protect themselves and their wallets.

These, of course, would be the policies that provide the least benefits, the least coverage, the highest deductibles. 

But again, the premiums are the least of their problems, and just the start of their problems.

Imagine thinking you have health care insurance and then finding out you have $5,000 of out-of-pocket deductibles before the benefits kick in.  

The GOP is so fortunate it did not defund ObamaCare. 

The article simply gets worse and worse as it goes one:

Ms. Greb said she was too upset to finish a letter she got recently from her insurer, Moda Health, that said her “bronze” health plan, for which she pays $213 a month after a subsidy of $175, would not be offered through the exchange in 2016.

The company offered her a similar plan that would cost $265 a month if her subsidy stays the same.

The new plan recommended by Moda has a deductible, the amount she must pay for care before the insurance begins to pay, of $5,500, up from $4,250 in her current plan, she said. “People are putting off care because of the expense.”

And insurers are dropping out resulting in less competition, higher premiums and higher deductibles:

But, an administration report said Friday, only one insurer is offering coverage in the marketplace in Wyoming, and consumers have a choice of just two insurers in Alaska, Hawaii, Oklahoma, South Dakota and West Virginia. And that data, current as of Oct. 19, did not reflect the recent collapse of nonprofit insurance cooperatives in South Carolina and Utah.

And this is from The New York Times.

Nearly half of all non-profit healthcare co-ops created under ObamaCare in 2011 have collapsed due to inadequate Democratic funding.  

Saudi Arabia Credit Rating Is Cut By Standard & Poor's -- October 30, 2015

Updates

Don also provided the answer to the second of two questions at the end of the original post. Bloomberg Business reported earlier this year, April, 2015: 

Russia’s foreign-currency credit rating was kept one step below investment grade at Standard & Poor’s as policy makers struggle to boost growth and the financial system risks weakening due to a lack of external funding amid sanctions.

The ratings company also left the “negative” outlook on its BB+ grade unchanged, according to a statement released on Friday. That puts Russia’s rating on par with Bulgaria and Indonesia.

S&P stripped Russia of its investment grade in January for the first time in a decade as plunging oil prices and sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine push the world’s largest energy exporter into its first recession since 2009. The penalties have locked Russian corporate borrowers out of international debt markets, spurred capital flight and weakened the country’s currency, which lost about half of its value last year before rebounding in 2015.

October 31, 2015: a reader answered one of the questions at the end of the original post. S&P downgraded Venezuela's credit rating back in September, 2014:

S&P downgraded Venezuela's rating from B-minus to triple-C-plus. The new rating indicates that there is a one-in-two chance that the South American country defaults on its sovereign debt in the next two years.

Original Post

BloombergBusiness is reporting:

Saudi Arabia’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s , which said the decline in oil prices will increase the budget deficit in a country that relies on energy exports for 80 percent of its revenue.

S&P cut the sovereign rating one level to A+, the fifth-highest classification, as it said the biggest OPEC producer’s deficit will increase to 16 percent of gross domestic product this year. The nation’s credit outlook is negative as the decline in oil prices makes it difficult to reverse the fiscal deterioration, S&P said in a statement.

“We could lower the ratings within the next two years if Saudi Arabia did not achieve a sizable and sustained reduction in the general government deficit, or its liquid fiscal financial assets fell below 100 percent of GDP,” Trevor Cullinan, a credit analyst at the rating company, said in the statement.

The Saudi Finance Ministry said it "strongly disagrees with S&P’s approach to ratings management in this particular instance." The downgrade was "driven by fluid market factors rather than changes in the fundamentals of the sovereign," which "remain strong," the ministry said in a statement on the website of state-run Saudi Press Agency.

Time to buy Saudi bonds?

I'm curious how S & P rates Venezuela and Russia.

If the S & P cuts the US credit rating, President Obama will sic the IRS on Standard and Poor's.

Week 43: October 25, 2015 -- October 31, 2015

The biggest story this past week: observing a new phenomenon -- non-governmental strategic petroleum reserves and one of the reserves is in North Dakota. CNBC asked the question but did a lousy job reporting on it; initial post here.

It is interesting that there were three stories this week, very coincidental, that Russia, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia are all burning through their cash reserves. Venezuela has six months; Russia has one year; and, Saudi Arabia, five years.

Operations
EOG with permits for 19 wells in one section in Clarks Creek
Bakken Shale ND, new operator in the Bakken; with permits for 8 wells in Lone Butte
BR permitted for re-entry; reason unknown
EOG with permits for 10 more oil wells in Clarks Creek
Target zone efficiency

Pipelines
Minnesotans keystoning the Sandpiper provide Bakken twist 

Bakken economy
Continued discussion on a 4-lane divided highway from Watford City to I-94 (Belfield)
Muckbusters

Miscellaneous
Putting OXY's exit into perspective 
Updates on the Samson Resources, American Eagle bankruptcies 

Global economy
Saudi Arabia burning through their cash 
Venezuela running out of cash; selling their gold 
Russian burning through cash; rainy day funds could be depleted as early as next year 

Bakken Economy -- October 30, 2015

Updates

November 8, 2015: must be a slow news day in Dickinson. The Dickinson Press has the story today with the headline suggesting there's a debate about a four-lane highway from Williston to Dickinson.

What amazes me is that the state says it could take as long as a decade to get it completed. I assume the bridge and going through the Badlands would be a bit of a challenge, but ten years? Give me a break. 
 

Original Post

 

From The Williston Wire:

The North Dakota Department of Transportation will hold Public Scoping Meetings in November regarding the proposed  project from the Interstate 94 Interchange to the Watford City Bypass (McKenzie County Road 30). The  62-mile project would expand US Highway 85 to four lanes and rehabilitate or replace the historic Long X Bridge over the Little Missouri River.

70 Rigs -- Who Would Have Guessed? -- October 30, 2015; Zavanna Reports Several Nice Wells Southeast Of Williston; Eight (8) New Permits

Active rigs:

	10/30/2015	10/30/2014	10/30/2013	10/30/2012	10/30/2011
Active Rigs	70	190	182	185	200

Eight (8) new permits --

• Operators: EOG (4), SM Energy (3), Hess
• Fields: Clarks Creek (McKenzie); Blue Buttes (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail), Ambrose (Divide)
• Comments: with the relatively mediocre wells SM Energy seems to be reporting in Divide County, it's interesting to see them still drilling; what more can I say about EOG and Clarks Creek: permits for three more wells in section 25-152-95. 250 feet from the north line and between 700 and 900 feet from the west line; for those trying to keep track of this at home, this is the third screenshot of this area in recent weeks. We're looking at the upper lefthand corner in the grey area (Fort Berthold Indian Reservation): permits for the first set of wells (6 wells) is in red; permits for the second set of wells (10 wells) is in green; and, now the permits for the third set of wells in the same immediate area (3 wells) is in black. I haven't taken the time to see which direction these 19 new wells will run. The original four wells were extended long laterals (3 sections) running south. [Again, I may have misread something or have gotten something wrong; if this is important to you, go to the source.]

Producing wells completed (note: these four Zavanna Angus wells are on a 6-well pad):

• 26682, 2,770, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 1H, Long Creek, the geologist's report says the well is in Stockyard Creek (the well is sited in Long Creek, but runs north into Stockyard Creek); the 4' target zone started 12' below the top of the middle Bakken; gas units maxed at 1,134 units; trip gas hit 3,204 units, t9/15; cum 6K 9/15; producing only 6 days;
• 26683, 2,950, Zavanna, Angus 34-27 2H, Stockyard Creek, t9/15; cum 13K 9/15; producing only 12 days;
• 26684, 567, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 3TFH, Long Creek, t9/15; cum 5K 9/15; producing only 8 days;
• 26686, 548, Zavanna, Angus 34-27 4TFH, Stockyard Creek, t9/15; cum 2K 9/15; producing only 4 days;

QEP reports that the four Jones wells are producing or plugged, in Grail oil field, of course; a six-well pad.

Newfield let six (6) permits expire (it should be noted that it is not unusual for expired permits to "come back" as renewed permits): Sturgeon (3), Schneiderman (3), all in the Tobacco Garden/South Tobacco Garden area. 

I'm Trying To Find The Downside Here -- October 30, 2015

I've noted this before, although I don't know if I have ever posted a note on this. This is way beyond my comfort zone; I know nothing about this -- but that doesn't mean I won't comment on it publicly at risk of looking like a fool (and maybe confirming same). Whatever. Maybe I will just post the "facts" as presented by those who know and then come back to this later. Not.

This is the headline for a story reported by the AP economics writer: US consumer spending records weakest gain in 8 months. The lede:

Consumer spending in September posted the smallest gain in eight months, a sign that shoppers grew cautious at the end of the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said Friday spending rose 0.1 percent, the weakest showing since spending fell in January. Income growth inched up 0.1 percent, which was the smallest amount in four months. Wages and salaries were flat following two months of big gains.

Hold that thought: spending was the weakest showing since January, 2015. Then this, from the linked article:

Much of the September slowdown reflected a fall in energy prices, which resulted in a 1.2 percent drop in spending on nondurable goods such as gasoline. Spending on durable goods, a category that includes autos, jumped 0.8 percent last month. Spending on services rose 0.4 percent.

So, consumers are "cautious"? 

• spending on durable goods, which includes automobiles jumped 0.8% in one month of cautiousness
• spending on services rose a respectable 0.4% in one month of cautiousness
• spending on gasoline dropped a whopping 1.2% (even though demand for gasoline is way up compared to a year ago)

And they did this by saving more:

The saving rate edged up slightly to 4.8 percent of after-tax income in September, compared to 4.7 percent in August.

The article only mentioned one thing that consumers spent less on: energy. Well, duh. Is that bad? Spending less on gasoline in September does not mean Americans are driving less. In fact, they are driving more, much more. Their cars are getting better mileage and Elon Musk is selling a gazillion EVs and yet the amount of gasoline sold in the last reporting period was on an upward trend, and significantly more than the previous reporting period.

Sounds to me like the American consumers are doing just fine. Thank you. Not only that, they enjoy seeing their utility rates increase because they feel good about installing solar energy and wind energy at $3 million / MW. And Starbucks, selling fancy coffee at $4.50 / cup has a record quarter. I assume coffee would be a non-durable, like gasoline.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

I'm finally getting around to reading a book I picked up last summer on our cross-country trip from Texas to California via the nuclear museum in Albuquerque, NM: Inventint Los Alamos: The Growth of an Atomic Community, Jon Hunner, c. 2003.

The font and footnotes suggested this was going to be a fairly dry, fairly technical book, but it turns out to be a much better book than first impressions suggest.

I finally know (or think I know, but probably don't "understand," and using the word "know" loosely) the difference between:

• the "atomic bomb" and the hydrogen bomb 
• Big Man and Little Man (both atomic bombs)

I've also learned

• why atomic bombs are easier to "make" than hydrogen bombs; and,
• that Sheldon Cooper on The Big Bang Theory is the reincarnation of Oppenheimer

I also learned a little bit more about Lise Meitner, perhaps my favorite "character" in this whole history of the atomic bomb. From page 18:

Meitner code-switched a term from biology and called this process fission, a scientific name for the splitting of organisms. In fact, nuclear and atomic, which denoted the center or nucleus of the atom, were also borrowed form biology. Thus, the very names of nuclear physics and atomic science are derived from biology.

The author dwells a lot on "code-switching" in this book.

A person who changes within a sentence from speaking his or her dominant language to another language "code-switches." People code-switch for several reasons: to show off sophistication, to express something their native language cannot precisely communicate. In border regions where people live at the juncture of several cultures, linguistic code-switching is common.

Enola Gay, OMD

Update On Bakken Shale ND -- A New Operator In The Bakken -- October 30, 2015

On February 28, 2015, I asked whether Bakken Shale ND was a new operator in the Bakken? Bakken Shale ND was mentioned in the November, 2015, NDIC hearing dockets:

24642, Basin Shale ND, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 8 wells, McKenzie
Specifically, sections 14, 15, 22, and 23 - T147N - R98W. This is what the area looks like today:

There are a lot of vertical wells to the east, but a quick look did not reveal many great wells. Some exceptions:

• 8543, PA/488, Apache Corp, Bob Creek Federal Unit 4-19-1D (vertical), a Madison well, t3/82; cum 554K 10/90
• 8623, PA/398, Apache Corp, Bob Creek Federal Unit 3-24-2A (vertical), a Madison well, t8/82; cum 554K 10/91
• 9551, 463, Vanguard Operating, Foley-Stewart Federal 4-24-3C, t9/82; cum 740K 9/15; 

Putting OXY's Exit From The Bakken Into Perspective -- October 30, 2015

OXY never did "crack the Bakken code." Sounds like whining from The Wall Street Journal:

Occidental said it will net $600 million by selling its Bakken acreage to an undisclosed buyer and will turn its attention to the Permian Basin in West Texas.

“With this $600 million we could run four to five rigs in the Permian for a year and generate more production than we would get out of the Bakken,” said Steve Chazen, the company’s chief executive. “We just don’t see how it competes for capital inside the company in any reasonable price scenario,” he told investors and analysts Wednesday on a conference call to discuss earnings.

So wrong on so many levels. One really has to wonder. Assets worth $3 billion a year ago and they gave them away for $500 million (as reported earlier) but said to be $600 million by the CEO.

Undisclosed buyer? I think the buyer has been disclosed. It is interesting that this is not yet mentioned on the Lime Rock Resources website; makes me wonder? But I digress.

More from the WSJ article:

The Bakken has a reputation in the energy industry of being an expensive place to operate, and it is still plagued by a lack of pipelines to move oil to refineries on the East and West coasts of the U.S.

The break-even costs in the best spots in the Bakken are among the lowest in the world, which we've already gone over several times, and I'm not interested in looking for the links. Again. And the qualifier "best spots in the Bakken" can't be used as an excuse: I would assume that operators are only drilling the "best spots" in whatever play they are in.

Meanwhile, COP had this to say about the Bakken in their earnings call:

In the lower 48 third quarter, [COP/BR] production averaged 551,000 BOE per day.

That's a 1% increase from the same period last year and a 1% decrease sequentially. Importantly, though this represents a 12% increase in our crude oil year-over-year.

We're currently running 13 rigs in the lower 48, six in the Eagle Ford, four in the Permian, four in the Bakken and three in the Permian, one of which is in the unconventionals.

And we're delivering more for less across our programs. In fact, we have seen 20% to 30% lower drilling and completion costs compared to a year ago. About half of that’s driven by program efficiencies and about half is from deflation capture.

Production from these three unconventional plays was 249,000 BOE per day this quarter. That's an increase of 28,000 barrels versus the third quarter last year but a decrease of 6,000 barrels a day sequentially.

249/551 = 45% from unconventional. 

OXY exits the Bakken and XOM (XTO) is seeking permits for close to another 500 wells (see November's NDIC hearing dockets). Just some of the XTO cases:

• 24640, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 14 wells, McKenzie
• 24641, XTO, Garden-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; 6 wells; 3 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, McKenzie (9 wells total)
• 24658, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, i) ten wells on each of 12 existing 1280-acre units (120 wells); ii) 2 wells each on 16 overlapping 2560-acre units (32 wells); McKenzie, Dunn (120 + 32 = 152 wells)
• 24659, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, 12 wells on each of 19 1280-acre units (228 wells) 
• 24660, XTO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, i) 12 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; ii) 12 wells on each of 7 1280-acre units (84 wells); iii) 2 wells on each of 9 overlapping 2560-acre units (18 wells), Dunn (12 + 84 + 18 = 114 wells)

(Note: these numbers could be way off; I may be misreading something. If this is important to you, go to the source. 14 + 9 + 152 + 228 + 114 = 517 wells.)

Now That Apple Has Reported, Is Earnings Season Over; If Not Over, Is It Even Relevant / Interesting Any More? October 30, 2015

I don't recall any earnings announcement with live blogging except for Apple, and this wasn't the first time. Whatever.

Today, on tap:

• Chevron, forecast 76 cents; huge beat at $1.09; will cut 7,000 jobs
• XOM, forecast 89 cents; huge beat at $1.01; this is interesting -- a $1.01 this quarter this year, and $1.89 a year ago, same quarter; huge drop but nearly not as bad as one might have expected; color me impressed;
• Genesee & Wyoming: beats by 7 or 8 cents;
• Greenbrier: huge, huge beat; forecast $1.80; actually earned $2.02; 
• PSX: earnings jump 34%; huge, huge beat; forecast $2.24; actually earned $2.90
• Steris: beats by 7 cents

We Have A Glut Of Oil, A Glut Of Natural Gas, And We're Talking About 2MW Of Solar Energy! Can We Stop! -- October 30, 2015

After decades of advocacy and a gazillion dollars in tax giveaways to the solar companies. Kenosha News is reporting:

The future of solar energy in Wisconsin appears bright but could use a little more wattage.

In 2014, Wisconsin installed 2 megawatts of solar electric capacity, an investment price tag of $7 million.

As of the middle of this year, there were more than 171 solar companies at work in Wisconsin, employing 1,900 people.

Despite these pretty big numbers, when it comes to installing and utilizing solar power in Wisconsin, compared to other states, we fall somewhere in the middle of the pack.

According to statistics provided by the Solar Energies Industries Association in a report with GTM Research, the solar capacity installed in 2014 ranks our state 34th nationally and the total cumulative installed solar capacity — 21 megawatts, enough to power 3,100 homes — puts us 30th nationwide.

As Chris Christie would say, "We have - wait a second - we have 19 trillion dollars in debt, we have people out of work, we have ISIS and al Qaeda attacking us, and we're talking about 2 MW of electricity installed in one year in one of our biggest, sunniest states! Can we stop?"

Christie just wants to break free!

Queen, I Want To Break Free

$7 million / 2 MW = $3.5 million / MW. But at least it's free, intermittent, and great for a sun tan.

By the way, for the privilege of 50 people in Wisconsin putting up solar panels on their roofs, all Wisconsin residents will see their monthly utility bills increase significantly:

In the current Wisconsin Public Service case, the utility is asking regulators to increase the monthly residential fixed charge to $25 after implementing an 82 percent increase less than a year ago, from $10.40 to $19. The utility would reduce the variable kilowatt-hour charge.

The new rate design is justified, the utility says, because long-standing tariffs rely too heavily on variable energy charges to recover fixed costs like meters, poles, wires and substations.

A continued emphasis of energy efficiency from state and federal policies, slow customer growth in its service area and increased penetration of rooftop solar are causing energy sales to flatline and eroding its ability to recover those fixed costs, Wisconsin Public Service says. And solar penetration will only continue to accelerate as costs decline.

I've said this before: Americans pay so little for electricity that they are willing to let their monthly utility bills double (perhaps even more) simply to feel good (installing 2 MW of solar power in one year, for example).  When folks are willing to pay $4.50 for a fancy coffee at Starbucks, an extra dollar a day for electricity is hardly worth getting excited about. Same with gasoline. It's so cheap, people no longer feel any urgency to put in the infrastructure to move crude oil and thus we have the keystoning of the Sandpiper in Minnesota.

Update On Egypt's Super-Giant Natural Gas Field -- October 30, 2015

Updates

Sunday, November 1, 2015: the giant natural gas field discovered off-shore Egypt may upend Mideast energy diplomacy, but it has already upended the Jewish energy minister: he resigned. His resignation clears the way for Israel to begin developing their own giant oil field found by Noble. This was the strangest story I had read in a long time -- how Obama-like decisions in Israel completed upended (to use that word again) Israelis oil and gas industry and potential financial windfall. AFP is reporting:

Israel's economy minister resigned on Sunday, opening the way for the government to greenlight a multibillion dollar gas deal with US energy giant Noble Energy, a statement from the Prime Minister's office said.

"Minister (Aryeh) Deri announced to me his intention to quit. In order to proceed with the (offshore gas) agreement the ministry will be transferred to me and I will give the greenlight," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

A major deal to exploit offshore gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean has been stuck for almost a year due to the objection of the country's anti-trust authority, which warned the agreement could give Noble and its Israeli partner Delek an effective monopoly.

Original Post

Previously reported; regular readers were aware of this some time ago. The New York Times points out the political side of the gas discovery in Egypt that threatens to upend Mideast energy diplomacy.

The company, using drilling rights from the Egyptian government, found what it called a “supergiant” natural gas field. It may be the largest discovery yet in the Mediterranean and is one of the world’s biggest new gas finds in years.

Eni will need to drill more wells to prove its claim that the field, which it calls Zohr, holds up to 30 trillion cubic feet of gas. That could be worth about $100 billion, even when taking into account current low energy prices. But the promise of Zohr — the Arabic word for noon — is already brightening the prospects of the Egyptian economy, which has been benighted by an energy shortage and years of political turmoil.

With a big new supply of natural gas, Egypt might be able to stop burning oil to generate electricity and start exporting the petroleum instead. New domestic supplies of natural gas would help conserve scarce foreign currency resources and might spur investment in gas-fired factories and electric power plants. And natural gas exports might follow.

But Egypt’s good fortune could come at the expense of its much richer neighbor. Eni’s trove could threaten Israel’s ambitions to tap its own giant offshore gas field, called Leviathan.

Israel is already self-sufficient in natural gas by dint of a smaller offshore field — Tamar, discovered in 2009 — that serves the country via pipeline. Noble Energy, an American company that operates Tamar for the Israeli government, discovered the bigger Leviathan field in Israeli waters in 2010. Leviathan has potential reserves far exceeding Israel’s own needs.

Encouraged by the Obama administration, Noble reached preliminary deals last year to export gas to both Egypt and Jordan, a move approved by Mr. Netanyahu as a way to earn m oney and strengthen ties with former enemies.

And just a few years ago, "they" said the world was running out of oil and running out of natural gas. 

Not so many "Peak Oil" sites on the web any more, I suppose. I don't know. I haven't checked.

Venezuela Is Running Out Of Money; Begins Selling Its Gold; Clearing Out The In-Box -- October 30, 2015; Cheerio, Cheerios

Why is firewood so darn expensive in New Hampshire? Yup, you guessed it. Blame it on George Bush fracking.  Fosters is reporting:

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — Northeasterners who are digging deeper into their pockets to pay for firewood this season can add a new scapegoat to the roster of usual market forces: fracking.

Yep, a timber industry representative in New Hampshire said those hydraulic fracturing well sites in Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale formation to suck natural gas out of the ground are using construction "mats" made of hardwood logs — think of the corduroy roads seen in sepia-toned photographs from the 1800s — to get heavy equipment over mucky ground, wetlands or soft soils.

That increased demand has crept down the chimney into fireplaces. Prices in parts of New England are averaging $325 a cord and can even push past $400 for a seasoned, delivered load. That's anywhere from $50 to $75 more a cord than last year — or an increase of 18 to 23 percent.

Jasen Stock, executive director of the New Hampshire Timberland Owners Association, said it's not just fracking sites that are hogging the logs. Pipelines and transmission wires — really any large-scale construction project — have in the past three years ramped up the appetite for the perfect mat log: a hardwood trunk, 16 to 20 feet long and 8 to 10 inches in diameter.

As a result, the cost of cordwood on the stump (that is, live trees) went from $10 in 2012 in northern New Hampshire to $15 this year, Stock said.

CNN Money is reporting: Venezuela is running out of money fast and has started selling its gold.

The cash-strapped country could default by next year when lots of debt payments are due. Venezuela's reserves, which are mostly made up of gold, have fallen sharply this year as the country needs cash to pay off debt and tries to maintain its social welfare programs.

Venezuela owes about $15.8 billion in debt payments between now and the end of 2016.

But it doesn't have enough to make good on its payments. Venezuela only has $15.2 billion in foreign reserves -- the lowest amount since 2003. A lot of those reserves are in gold.

Less than $1 billion of Venezuela's reserves are in cash, and it has a couple billion in reserves at the IMF.

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

Tesoro Corp. sees continued value in railing North Dakota Bakken crude to its Washington state refinery despite higher costs because of improved yields, CEO Greg Goff told analysts on Thursday. 

IceAgeNow is reporting that the atmospheric CO2 in 1910 equaled that of today. First comment at that link:

We do have historical ice core and recent volcano data series that both track each other and do show an upward trend. Looking at longer historical records going back thousands of years….it is not very conclusive that temperature tracks CO2 levels and it appears temperature change leads CO2 change. If CO2 level is causative, based on historical Vostok ice core samples….we should have seen a MUCH larger spike in temperature already. The data shows as temperature varied by 16F while CO2 varied by 90 ppm or about 5.5 ppm / F. So if CO2 is up another 100 ppm, we’d expect another 18F increase yet none at all is shown in the ice sample data. This is easily explained if historical temperature data is driven by some other external factor or cycle the typically impacts both CO2 and temperature and now man-made CO2 emissions are simply added to the external factor. The external factor has not changed so the temperature has not changed greatly. Some may argue that it is CO2 driven but with a lag so the impact has not yet shown….but the historical data has never shown a significant lag between a sharp CO2 increase and a sharp temperature increase and actually it appears that typically temperature change precedes CO2 change.

SolarCity -- Elon Musk, cousin of the co-founders -- is tanking; falls over 18% on earnings miss.

• Posted a loss of $2.10 vs an estimate of a loss of $1.90.

Setting us up for $200 oil: COP will exit deepwater exploration.

MarketWatch is reporting that General Mills will cut more jobs, close more plants:
General Mills on Thursday announced another round of job cuts, the latest set of layoffs from the maker of Cheerios as it seeks to improve profitability amid lackluster sales.
The Minneapolis food giant, struggling to adapt to consumers' shifting preference for fresh and natural food options over packaged goods, is in the midst of a multiyear cost-cutting effort. It has announced several plant closures and thousands of job cuts in roughly the past year.

Friday, October 30, 2015 -- Natural Gas Inventory Could Hit All-Time High -- RBN Energy

Active rigs:

	10/30/2015	10/30/2014	10/30/2013	10/30/2012	10/30/2011
Active Rigs	69	190	182	185	200

RBN Energy: Shadow of Storage Surplus Threatens Winter Natural Gas Prices.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday (Thursday) reported the U.S. natural gas storage inventory is 3,877 Bcf as of Oct. 23, which is above the 5-year maximum for this week and within striking distance of breaching the all-time record high of 3,929 Bcf (Nov. 2, 2012) by the end of the traditional storage injection season on Oct. 31.

And, while the production growth rate has slowed compared to recent years, and even dipped a bit over the past couple of weeks, total gas production is still near record levels and about 2.0 Bcf/d higher than last year. Now the gas market is about to flip to withdrawal season, when winter heating demand typically exceeds available local production, leading to storage drawdowns.

The combination of high storage and production levels sets up a bearish dynamic for the winter market.  Today, we take a look at the supply and demand balance going into the winter gas market.

Our last update on the natural gas supply and demand balance was at the end of August 2015 At that time the market had worked off some of the supply surplus it started with back in April. At the start of the summer injection season in April there was 600 Bcf more gas in storage and production was 4.0 Bcf/d higher than last year. By August end, near-record demand from power generators and flattening production helped to whittle down the year-over-year storage overhang to just under 500 Bcf. Since then, demand has maintained record highs each month. And, while average production set a new record in September, year-over-year increases continued to flatten out.

New Milestone For The Blog -- October 29, 2015

18689 stand-alone posts prior to this one.

The page-view counter will go over the 8,000,000 mark sometime overnight.

A huge thank you to all the readers especially those that send me notes and alert me to things I would otherwise most likely miss.

At the height of the Bakken boom, the website averaged 6,000 page views / 24 hours. Now, the website is averaging about 3,000 page views in the same time period.

A google search for Bakken oil blog reveals this screen shot, taken at 10:23 p.m. Central Time, October 29, 2015:

A google search for topical news Bakken oil October 2015 revealed this screenshot:

Five (5) New Permits; Whiting Reports A High-IP Well East Of Williston; Three (3) More Bakken DUCs; Lots Of Stuff Going On -- October 29, 2015

Active rigs:

	10/29/2015	10/29/2014	10/29/2013	10/29/2012	10/29/2011
Active Rigs	69	190	182	183	200

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:

• 29094, 2,402, Whiting, P Vance 154-97-14-9-21-15HA, Truax, gas rose to 3,573 units in upper Bakken; 7 days to drill the lateral (there's an error in the file report), gas peaked at 6,372 units, 33 stages; 4.7 million lbs, t5/15 cum 64K 8/15;
• 29804, SI/NC, BR, Kirkland 14-21MBH, Pershing, no production data,
• 30232, SI/NC, BR, Sun Notch 43-32MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 30436, SI/NC, SM Energy, Anne 13-19HS, Ambrose, no production data,

Five (5) new permits --

• Operators: EOG (3), MRO (2)
• Fields: Parshall (Mountrail), Four Bears (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Lots of stuff going on. Whiting has four more wells placed on the confidential list -- all Flatland Federal and all TFH wells, #2 - #5, Flatland Federal 11-4-XTFH

Lots of stuff going on. Is Statoil getting ready to shut down operations in the Bakken for awhile? Statoil canceled 12 permits: Raymond, Helling, Stallion, M. Olson, Edna, Poeckes, L E wells all in McKenzie County.

Lots of stuff going on. Slawson cancels five (5) permits: Howo, Skybolt, Shakafox (2), and Fox wells, all in Mountrail County.

Lots of stuff going on. EOG temporarily abandons four (4) more wells, all in the Parshall oil field. 

One (1) producing well completed:

• 30439, 802, Hess, EN-Kiesel-LE-155-94-1918H-1, Manitou, t10/15; cum 3K 9/15;

**********************************

29094, see above, Whiting, P Vance 154-97-14-9-21-15HA, Truax:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2015	8547	30364
7-2015	11970	37500
6-2015	17258	29705
5-2015	25020	1812
4-2015	432	0

NDIC November, 2015, Hearing Dockets Are Posted; Highlights Only

The November, 2015, hearing dockets are posted.

Disclaimer: these summaries are for my personal use only; you are free to read them; don't quote me on them; there will be typographical and factual errors.  If this is important to you go to the source. Link here.

Past dockets are archived here.


Highlights  
These are just the cases that caught my eye the first time through. This was done very, very quickly; it was not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors. The full summary is yet to be posted.  

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 (9 pages)

Mostly "continued" cases
24599, Hess, Elm Tree-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well; authorize 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 12 wells
24622, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, amend, 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail, 16 wells

Thursday, November 19, 2015 (13 pages)

A lot of risk penalty cases
XTO is very, very active
24633, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, amend, create three overlapping 3200-acre units; multiple wells, Mountrail
24634, EOG, temporary authority to rework #16986 as a water injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24635, EOG,  temporary authority to rework #17170 as a combined production/ injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24640, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 14 wells, McKenzie
24641, XTO, Garden-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; 6 wells; 3 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, McKenzie
24642, Basin Shale ND, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 8 wells, McKenzie
24643, Hellervik Oilfield, certifying and/or approving the "Hellervik Oil Conditioning Unit" as an alternative method of oil conditioning,
24658, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, i) ten wells on each of 12 existing 1280-acre units (120 wells); ii) 2 wells each on 16 overlapping 2560-acre units (32 wells); McKenzie, Dunn (120 + 32 = 152 wells)
24659, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, 12 wells on each of 19 1280-acre units (228 wells)
24660, XTO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, i) 12 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; ii) 12 wells on each of 7 1280-acre units (84 wells); iii) 2 wells on each of 9 overlapping 2560-acre units (18 wells), Dunn (12 + 84 + 18 = 114 wells)
24681, Enerplus, Antelope-Bakken, five wells on an existing 320-acre unit; 10 wells a 640-acre units; 10 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie (5+10+10 = 25 wells)

Friday, November 20, 2015

All continued cases

******************************************

Full Summary

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 (9 pages)

Mostly "continued" cases
24597, Sequel, North Branch-Bakken, redefine field limits, McKenzie
24598, Sequel, Snowcover-Bakken, redefine field limits, McKenzie
24599, Hess, Elm Tree-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well; authorize 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 12 wells
24600, HRC, Eagle Nest-Bakken, amend, open a new lateral from an existing lateral, #27415, Dunn,
24601, Petro-Hunt, single well exception, whipstock set in the casing, McKenzie
24602, OXY USA, flaring, Dunn
24603, OXY USA, flaring, Dunn
24604, QEP, Grail-Bakken, setback rules, McKenzie
24605, BR, Blue Buttes-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 1 well, McKenzie
24606, Gadeco, Epping-Bakken, authorizing sale of oil produced from one of its wells there; Williams
24607, Secure Energy treating plant, Williams
24608, Secure Energy treating plant, McKenzie
24609, Secure Energy treating plant, Mountrail
24610, Clean Energy treating plant, McKenzie
24611, Oasis, SWD, Williams
24612, White Owl, SWD, McKenize
24613, White Owl, SWD, Mountrail
24614, Hess, pooling
24615, Hess, pooling
24616, Hess, pooling
24617, Hess, pooling
24618, Hess, pooling
24619, Hess, pooling
24620, Hess, pooling
24621, Hess, pooling
24622, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, amend, 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail, 16 wells
24623, Hess, commingling
24624, Petro-Hunt, pooling
24625, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
24626, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
24627, BR, Dimmick Lake-Bakken, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
24628, QEP, pooling

Thursday, November 19, 2015 (13 pages)

A lot of risk penalty cases
XTO is very, very active
24629, Whiting, Springbrook-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine, Williams
24630, Oasis, et al, Pronghorn-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine, McKenzie
24631, CLR, others, Patent Gate-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine, McKenzie
24632, Statoil, Sakakawea-Bakken, redefine, McKenzie
24633, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, amend, create three overlapping 3200-acre units; multiple wells, Mountrail
24634, EOG, temporary authority to rework #16986 as a water injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24635, EOG,  temporary authority to rework #17170 as a combined production/ injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24636, Liberty Resources, Temple and/or Northwest McGregor-Bakken, establish i) an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 1 well; ii) an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 2 wells; Williams
24637, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, setback changes, Dunn
24638, XTO, West Capa and Grinnell-Bakken, setback changes, Williams
24639, XTO, Siverston-Bakken, setback changes, McKenzie
24640, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 14 wells, McKenzie
24641, XTO, Garden-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; 6 wells; 3 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, McKenzie
24642, Basin Shale ND, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 8 wells, McKenzie
24643, Hellervik Oilfield, certifying and/or approving the "Hellervik Oil Conditioning Unit" as an alternative method of oil conditioning,
24644, TD Services treatment plant, throughout the state of ND
24645, Clean Fluid mobile treatment plants, throughout the state of ND
24646, Newfield, pooling
24647, XTO, pooling
24648, XTO, pooling
24649, XTO, pooling
24650, XTO, pooling
24651, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24652, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24653, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24654, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24655, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24656, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24657, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24658, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, i) ten wells on each of 12 existing 1280-acre units (120 wells); ii) 2 wells each on 16 overlapping 2560-acre units (32 wells); McKenzie, Dunn (120 + 32 = 152 wells)
24659, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, 12 wells on each of 19 1280-acre units (228 wells)
24660, XTO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, i) 12 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; ii) 12 wells on each of 7 1280-acre units (84 wells); iii) 2 wells on each of 9 overlapping 2560-acre units (18 wells), Dunn (12 + 84 + 18 = 114 wells)
24661, WPX, pooling,
24662, WPX, pooling,
24663, WPX, pooling,
24664, WPX, pooling,
24665, WPX, pooling,
24666, WPX, pooling,
24667, WPX, pooling,
24668, WPX, pooling,
24669, WPX, pooling,
24670, CLR, pooling,
24671, CLR, pooling,
24672, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24673, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24674, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24675, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Sanish-Bakken, Mountrail
24676, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24677, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24678, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24679, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24680, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24681, Enerplus, Antelope-Bakken, five wells on an existing 320-acre unit; 10 wells a 640-acre units; 10 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie (5+10+10 = 25 wells)
24682, Statoil, SWD, Banks, McKenzie

Friday, November 20, 2015

All continued cases

WSJ Reports Occidental Will Leave The Bakken Oil Fields -- October 29, 2015

This is old news; it was in The Wall Street Journal today -- Occidental to leave Bakken oil fields. I'm posting it / linking it for archives, but I don't see much news in the article. OXY never did "crack the Bakken code." Some cherry-picking / selected examples of recent wells after eight years of practice in the Bakken:

• 26782, 53, OXY USA, Shuck 3-33-28H-144-97, Little Knife, t12/14; cum 57K 8/15;
• 28164,108, OXY USA, Federal Bud 4-29-32H-143-96, Fayette, t11/14; cum 68K 8/15;
• 28163, 94, OXY USA, Federal Bud 3-29-32H-143-96, Fayette, t11/14; cum 53K 8/15;
• 28581, 226, OXY USA, State 4-21-16H-143-96, Fayette, t3/15; cum 34K 8/15;
• 28759, 854, OXY USA, Raphael Stroh 3-13-24H-143-97, Fayette, t2/15; cum 68K 8/15;
• 28758, 963, OXY USA, Raphael Stroh 4-13-24H-143-97, Fayette, t2/15; cum 63K 8/15;
• 28757, 633, OXY USA, Kenneth Stroh 4-12-1H-143-97, Cabernet, t2/15; cum 74K 8/15;
• 28582, 438, OXY USA, Schneider 2-28-33H-143-96, Fayette, t2/15; cum 40K 8/15;
• 28583, 661, OXY USA, Schneider 3-28-33H-143-96, Fayette, t2/15; cum 61K 8/15;
• 26674, 80, OXY USA, State Anderson 2-3-25H-143-97, Little Knife, producing, appears to be a typical OXY USA well, t9/14 cum; 47K 8/15;
• 27543, 50 (no typo), OXY USA, John Kinne 2-27-34H-142-98, Snow, t8/14; cum 35K 8/15;

Elvis Has Left The Building

Random Update Of BR's Hammerhead Wells In Sand Creek Oil Field, The Bakken, North Dakota -- October 29, 2015

BR's Hammerhead wells in Sand Creek Oil Field, section 26-153-97. See original post. 

28778, 1,483, Hammerhead 11-26MBH, Sand Creek, t5/15; cum 28K 8/15;
28779, 1,443, Hammerhead 11-26TFH, Sand Creek, t6/15; cum 15K 8/15;
28780, 1,603, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek, t6/15; cum 27K 8/15;

28781, 1,080, Hammerhead 31-26TFH, Sand Creek, t5/15; cum 23K 8/15;
28782, 1,488, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t5/15; cum 27K 8/15;
28783, 1,512, Hammerhead 21-26TFH, Sand Creek, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t6/15; cum 26K 8/15;

20812, 1,884, Hammerhead 31-26MBH, Sand Creek, 30 stages, 3.2 million lbs, t4/12; cum 355K 8/15;

28784, 1,200, Hammerhead 41-26TFH, Sand Creek, 35 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t4/15; cum 23K 8/15; 

**************************************

Production Profiles For The First Six Months

28778, 1,483, Hammerhead 11-26MBH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	22	13374	13307	6042	26982	26927	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	25	14162	14162	16548	28234	0	28172
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

28779, 1,443, Hammerhead 11-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	3	68	68	366	282	275	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	14	14497	14497	15267	37419	20726	16658
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

28780, 1,603, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	12457	12395	7554	25369	25292	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	0	0	0	77	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	26	13994	13994	8719	31261	12562	18635
BAKKEN	5-2015	1	286	286	215	518	0	516
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

28781, 1,080, Hammerhead 31-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	11323	11267	9038	25890	25821	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	15	10766	10810	21104	22599	0	22562
BAKKEN	4-2015	3	497	453	3305	1798	0	1791

28782, 1,488, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	14191	14121	28	55142	55142	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	5	3158	3327	5	11485	6755	4730
BAKKEN	5-2015	17	9696	9527	17	22804	5005	17799

28783, 1,512, Hammerhead 21-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	12026	11967	9564	24480	24158	252
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	11	11143	11143	16500	30101	8654	21419
BAKKEN	5-2015	15	2704	2704	13436	7463	0	7426

20812, 1,884, Hammerhead 31-26MBH, Sand Creek:

BAKKEN	9-2012	14	7876	7611	2535	12130	3178	8952
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	20759	20845	6922	33485	26646	6839
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	22680	22605	7002	37838	30951	6887
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	21819	21694	6716	40520	28347	12099
BAKKEN	5-2012	29	9538	9382	3777	16215	0	16143
BAKKEN	4-2012	21	4041	3941	12795	11149	0	11096

28784, 1,200, Hammerhead 41-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	14222	14152	7317	32774	32704	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	10	8622	8688	9641	18593	0	18568
BAKKEN	3-2015	1	67	0	1765	855	0	852