Dire Straits -- March 8, 2022

I don't want to alarm folks but remember all those "fallout bomb shelters" in the 1950s. Something tells me we need to start hoarding non-perishable staples for the empty shelves that we will see this summer. Just saying. Rice, beans, that would be a good start. Spam. Bottled water.

I keep hoping that things will stabilize, but even after-hours, crude oil continues to rise. 

Crude oil:

• WTI: $125.00; up another $1.31 since the close.
• Brent: $129.90; up another $1.88 since the close. Let's call it $130 to keep it simple.

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. Yield pretty much unchanged, at 1.847%.
  
• DXY: link here. Getting ever closer to 100. Now at 99.02.
  
• Silver: link here. Up another 1/3%; now at $27.
  
• Gold: link here. Up $43. Wow, wow, wow, the y-axis had to be changed; gold now solidly above $2,000; hit a high of $2,605 before dropping back to $2.040.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Surprise, surprise, actually dropped back a bit, at the close, 35.13, down 3.62%. 

If we survive this, and I'm not sure we will, those holding gold, silver, nickel, oil in almost any form should do very, very well. 

I think the tipping point was the story of the day: international leaders no longer taking phone calls from Washington, DC.

Actually, there were two stories.

First, the aforementioned telephone story. 

But even bigger, this story. 

Quick, name any western leader, other than Zelenskyy that is seen as a leader in this crisis. Right now, Putin and Muhammed Bin Salman are the leaders from the East; they're the only ones I can name. And, right, wrong, indifferent, by definition they must be the only two adults in the room. But, from the west, quick! Name any western leader with any gravitas right now. Macron is the only European leader I can actually name. Boris is a Brit, not a European. Quick, name the German leader. The Spanish leader. The Italian leader. Who is head of the UN? The west has no leader.

So, if the tipping point was today when the lead story was that international leaders won't take Biden's phone calls. What comes next? 

That's pretty pessimistic, isn't it?

The good news? Right now I don't see any of the adults leading in Washington. If the likes of Biden, Kamala, Pelosi, Schumer, Elizabeth Warren are the varsity team by virtue of where they stand (or sit), the junior varsity team looks pretty darn good: the likes of Warren Buffett, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Harold Hamm, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates ad infinitum. The junior varsity team won't let things collapse. And these guys are backed up by the best military and intelligence agencies in the world. 

Not to worry. At some point, our junior varsity team, like the oligarchs in Russia, will say enough is enough. And then the adults in Washington, DC, will take over.

Things had to have looked awful bleak December 7, 1941, but somehow the junior varsity team turned things around and things finally got back on track. This might be as good a time as any to read the biography of Admiral Nimitz. 

A footnote:

Nimitz was court-martialed and found guilty of neglect of duty, but due to his otherwise excellent record and willingness to admit his own fault, was only issued a letter of reprimand.

And, of course, the rest is history.

But, wow, it's going to take a lot of loud rock 'n roll music to put me in a good mood.

Put your headphones on and play this really, really loud:

Sultans of Swat, Dire Straits

I started this essay about twenty minutes ago. Let's check the price of crude oil:

• WTI, up 80 cents, now trading at $125.80
• Brent, up 80 cents, now trading at $130.70.

WTI: over $125.
Brent: over $130.

Gotta play the music louder.

Five minutes later:

• WTI: $126.20.
• Brent: $131.10

Next morning, Wednesday, March 9, 2022: oil "crashes." Well, sort of.

• WTI: down $3.53, trading pre-market at $120.20
• Brent: down $3.08, trading pre-market at $124.90

Putin's reality: I have no idea what the truth is coming out of the Ukraine, but it certainly appears that Ukraine, with minimal help from NATO, the west, or the US, in part or in whole, has significantly slowed Russia's advance. 

I don't know if that's true, but that certainly seems to have a kernel of truth, as they say. Let's say that's accurate. Putin had 50% of his entire mechanized tank inventory invade Ukraine. Everyone knows that US A-10s with US F-15s providing air support could have taken that convoy out in a heartbeat. 

Official date of invasion, February 24, 2022. I said it was a "race against time" for Putin. I said he had ten days. It's now been, since the invasion began, thirteen days: four days in February, nine days in March. Maybe I was a bit optimistic. Smarter folks than I now say Putin's Russia will be insolvent by the end of March. 

But if that's true, something suggests to me that North Korea, China, and Putin know the military and economic strength of the west.

World Leaders Not Even Accepting His Phone Calls Now? March 8, 2022

I have a very sane, well-balanced twitter feed. This was the main story today: international leaders not taking phone calls from President Biden.  

Link here.

Link here. 

That ban on Russian oil? It was MSNBC that finally forced the president's hand. Leading from behind. What did the president do when he finally announced his decision?

World leaders watch the president's schedule very, very closely. 

Today, the president flies to Cow Town, Texas, lands at a landlocked naval joint reserve air base closed off to crowds and the press, met by a few military leaders, and the president gives an uninspiring speech to military veterans at a VA hospital that no one even knew existed. 

Meanwhile, Putin continues to commit war crimes against humanity, and seriously, can anyone spot any leader in the western world willing to really get involved. The Ukrainians are pretty much on their own. How much worse can it get? 

By the time US gasoline gets to $7.00 / gallon it will literally be too late.

Builds starting tomorrow.

Atmospheric CO2 -- February, 2022

Link here.

*******************
Ukranian Easter Eggs 

Link here.

Pysanky. 

The Most Beautiful Eggs in the World! 

Pysanky, Ukrainian Easter eggs (Pysanka is the singular form), are renowned around the world. They are an iconic image which heralds spring. The decorative eggs date back to early Slavic cultures, perhaps even paleolithic times. Many of the design motifs harken from pre-Christian times.

Daily Activity Report -- March 8, 2022

Keystone XL: canceling the Keystone XL may have been Biden's biggest blunder. Link to Robert Rapier. I did not read the article because I did not care but it was his biggest blunder because there was no way out, no way he can go back on this. One possible solution: have the operator change the name of the proposed pipeline, have the BLM bless it via "emergency use authorization," put Hunter in charge, and move on. 

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 

$124.30	3/8/2022	03/08/2021	03/08/2020	03/08/2019	03/08/2018
Active Rigs	31	16	55	67	59

One new permit:

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Winner (Williams)
• Comments: 
• Crescent Point Energy has a permit for a DeFrance well in SESW 12-158-100; 
• to be sited 350 FSL and 1595 FWL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38356, 1,452, CLR, Dolezal FIU 9-5H,
• 38049, 562, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H,
• 38420, 181, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
• 38421, 5, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,

Unused pipe for Keystone XL at Gascoyne, ND, far southwest corner of the state. Photos taken today; reader sent me the photos. The pipe was there, the permits were there, and the workers were there. And, then just like, killed.

That's it. Read our lips. TC Energy won't take Biden's phone calls either.

Biden To Fly Into DFW (?) But Won't Visit Dallas -- Headed To Ft Worth, TX -- March 8, 2022

Updates

March 9, 2022: wow, well played by the Biden team. Huge head fake. 

President Biden announced the ban on Russian oil, natural gas, and coal and then flew to Ft Worth, Texas. It was rumored that he was going to Texas to talk oil, which, of course, made no sense at all (see original post: going to Ft Worth to talk oil? Oh, give me a break). He kept to his schedule. Following the SOTU speech in which he spend a good deal of time on curing cancer and medical care for veterans, where does he go? He heads to a VA hospital in Texas to talk, not about oil, or Ukraine, but about curing cancer and medical care for veterans. Wow, huge head fake. Well played.

Again, as I've said before, I would rather have "a Biden" in the White House right now than "a Trump."

Original Post 

To talk oil. LOL. 

He must have a geography issue. In order of preference if coming to talk oil in Texas:

• Midland
• Odessa
• Houston
• Dallas
• Plano
  
• Ft Worth (maybe)
• with what they "talk" in Ft Worth, Jen Psaki will feel right at home (see comments)
  

You come to Ft Worth to talk cattle. 

Later, 3:45 p.m. CT: according to my wife who checked the local news, President Biden has just concluded his remarks at the VA hospital in Ft Worth, Texas. This boggles the mind. Why would he fly in, seemingly at the last minute (which of course, is not accurate; this trip was in the making for a long time, one would think) to visit a VA hospital in Texas. This is more than bizarre.  

Later, 5:10 p.m. CT: we now have the reason President Biden spoke at the VA hospital in Ft Worth. It was veterans day. Not the Veterans' Day but veterans day for President Biden.

********************************
Talking Air Force

Something I found while looking for something else. 

It is impossible for me not to vicariously enjoy / experience these stories after 30 years and one day in the USAF. The medics would have been heavily involved, and most likely a nurse, at a minimum, on every flight. It is impossible to articulate what the men and women accomplish in the military. This is just one very, very small cog in the entire operation.

The chain of command from POTUS down to the squadron commander making this happen is just incredible. POTUS - SecDef - USAF/CC - USAFE/CC - 521st AMOW/CC - 521st Operations Group/CC -- squadron commanders -- flight commanders -- a/c commanders. 

Commander of the 521 AMOW at Ramstein Air Base, Germany: Colonel Adrienne L. Williams.

When I sat in at the daily briefings chaired by a four-star general, an operation like this would have merited a single PowerPoint slide updating the command. If going smoothly no one would have commented, and the boss would have moved on. At the same time, if a plane was grounded due to lack of one part, the four-star general was kept abreast of where that part was every time it moved to a new location on its way to the disabled aircraft. No matter how small or seemingly inconsequential, if the part kept the a/c from flying the commanding general was ready to be on the phone, no so much "asking why" but "how are you going to get the part moving again?"

From Task & Purpose, September 24, 2021, humanitarian airlift out of Afghanistan:

• 521st Air Mobility Operations, Ramstein Air Base, Germany
• airlifted 124,000 people out of Afghanistan over a two week-period
• the unit is spread over 19 bases in 15 countries and 5,000 miles between the Middle East, Africa, and Europe
• it has a sister unit in the Pacific, the 515th AMOW, the 521st ...... see linked article.

When you see C-17, the "C" stands for "cargo" or "heavy." The C-17 is the largest a/c in the USAF inventory. It's in the same ballpark as the C-141, the C-5, the Boeing 747, etc. It's a big plane.

From the linked article:

At the evacuation’s height, there were more than 46 C-17s on the ramp at Al Udeid, supporting up to 35 daily launches, Quirk said, [to evacuate more than 120,000 people.]

Amid the chaos, airmen were still boarding the flights to provide water and medical care for evacuees. They also hired a local catering company to provide “three daily Afghan cuisine meals” to evacuees and had mental health professionals standing by, Quirk said.

“All of this was accomplished at the peak of summer, with daily temperatures regularly reaching in excess of 110 degrees Fahrenheit at an installation that was not designed to accommodate this type of operation,” she added.

How many passengers can a C-17 carry? Link here. Generally, about 200.

• the record: 823

For the USAF Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, the record was set last year:  

• 823 Afghan citizens, August 18, 2021, mission as noted above.
• but the US Army will note: Afghan people are small people, so it really doesn't count.
  

From the linked article:

USAF spokesperson Major Hope Cronin said on 18 August that the flight was designed for, and arrived at, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

The USAF previously estimated that there were roughly 640 passengers on this flight, but the service inadvertently included only adults. Approximately 183 children were also on board.

Maj Cronin said that the C-17 can be configured with a range of passenger options. The aircraft typically seats 102 passengers with centerline cargo seats and 138 passengers with seat pallets. The C-17 can carry 336 passengers when arranged into a humanitarian configuration where passengers are seated on the cargo floor with straps over their legs.

In the photo below, if you look hard enough, you will see Waldo, of "Where's Waldo" fame, about halfway back on the port side of the aircraft. You can just barely make out his red / white striped cap. Also, note that some folks were not wearing their USAF-issue-Covid-19 masks. I'm quite impressed that the woman near the center of the second row was wearing her mask.

********************************
A Humorous Interlude

Mid-week edition of "PowerLine Pictures."

My absolute favorite, a Rhino and a Greta in the wild, together:

Apple Event, 12:00 Noon CT -- March 8, 2022

Screenshots of the Bananarama layout as completed by our tenth-grade high school soccer player:

My wife, who is brilliant at board games, fluent in several languages, with a Master's Degree from UCLA, refuses to play Bananarama with this granddaughter any more. 

*******************************
Apple Event

In a long note like this, done on the fly, there will be typographical and content errors. For my use only.

First event of 2022. Hardware event.

AAPL: +$3.40. Trading at $16.271.

 Apple TV+.

• Apple original movies.
• Hamlet and Coda: each with three Oscar nominations. The latter with mostly deaf actors.
• Hamlet: I may have to watch this.
• I'm watching on both 27" desk top and MacBook Air. Watching one; other in "pause" in case I lose streaming in one or the other .
• New: Friday night MLB. Two games each Friday night.
  

iphone 13:

• New:  two new gorgeous finishes -- "pea green" and "alpine green."

Moving along very, very quickly.

Apple silicon:

• A15 and much, much more; 16-core neural engine.

iPhone SE:

• A15 now in iPhone SE! Wow!
• for existing users who want smaller, additional model;
• for new users looking for best bang for the buck
• fastest speed against any competitor
• midnight, starlight product red
• toughest glass in any smartphone, front and back
• home button with tough ID (that's what I want; I was afraid it was going to be taken away)
• 5G, of course
• iOS 15
• pre-order this Friday; available March 18, 2021
• $429 ($29 more than expected)
  

Wow, Tim is moving fast. 

iPad Air:

• performance taken to the next level
• M1 chip, 8-core CPU;
• faster than Microsoft's fastest laptop which is 3x thicker and weighs 4x more than the iPad Air;
• 12 MP ultra wide front camera; hugely popular on other devices
• 5G, of course
• packed with connected, productivity apps
• pre-order this Friday; available March 18, 2021
  
• $599 -- starting price, 64 GB and 256 GB;
  

The Mac:

• Apple Silicon
• M1; M1 Pro; M1 Max
• now: one more chip -- the M1 Ultra -- I had not seen this leaked
• option + shift + K (⌥⇧K)
• too much technology to post; look it up
• 64-core GPU
• power efficiency is incredible
  

Mac Studio and Studio Display: yup, this is it. The premier piece of hardware

• Mac Studio
• the Mac Mini on steroids
• M1 Max, M1 Ultra
  
• about 4" x 8" x 8"  (3.7" x 7.7" x 7.7") -- fits under most desktop displays
• water-filled, cooling radiator; just kidding -- air-cooled
• four Thunderbold ports
• ethernet port
  
• two USB ports
• HDMI port
  
• headphone jack
• two Thunderbolt ports
  
• SDXC camera disk port
• holy mackerel -- count the number and type of ports on a mini!
• pair with iMac Studio for which it is optimized
• beats the 27-inch iMac by wide margin; no comparison
• 48 GB video memory -- currently the largest graphic card available anywhere
  
• now: 64GB with Max1 Pro
• now: 128GG with Max1 Ultra
• somehow they need to dumb this down for someone like me
• so far, best news: no one has mentioned the word "meta" or "metaverse"
• so far, best news: no one has mentioned AR, but I'm sure it's coming;
• Studio Display
• in a class of its own
• wow, two stand versions -- very interesting
• 27-inch
• 14.7 million pixels
• 5K retina
• three USB-C ports
• one Thunderbolt port
•  Mac Studio: $1999 starting, $3999 starting
  
• Studio Display: $1599 
• order now; available March 18, 2022
  

One of the fastest presentations ever. Packed with new stuff.

AAPL: drops below $160; up only 55 cents; Dow has dropped from being up 500 points to being up 150 points

• is Jay Powell talking today?
• how high did oil go?

Off The Net For Awhile -- Coffee With Granddaughter Home From College -- March 8, 2022

Updates

Later, 1:00 p.m. CT:

Original Post

Thank you, thank you, thank you, Mr Biden. We are really separating the investor class from the non-investing class. I think BofA downgraded Big Oil earlier this morning. What were they thinking?

Side-By-Side -- Oil Futures -- Before -- After -- Biden Ban -- March 8, 2022

Look at the huge jump in April and May. Again, these are not the spot prices we will see in April and May, but rather what traders today are willing to pay for guaranteed delivery in April and May. I doubt they are looking to take a loss.

Due to my low-budget graphics department, the lines don't quite line up so by the bottom of the chart, "we're off" by one line. Deal with it.

If I had a subscription revenue stream, I might be able to afford a graphics artist. Futures.

I Would Put Them Side-By-Side If I Could -- Oil Futures -- March 8, 2022

Futures.

Before the Biden ban on Russian oil:

Immediately after the Biden ban on Russian oil:

Saudi Arabia Dropping Rigs -- March 8, 2022

Jen Psaki: US shale, you have 9,000 locations to drill. But that's it. That's all we're giving you. No more permits. No more pipelines. No more regulatory relief. You have 9,000 locations, be happy. With 650 rigs, that's 14 locations per rig to drill. If you drill one well with one rig every two weeks, that's 28 weeks, six months. And then you're done. Quit whining. You're done in August. Go on vacation. Have a marguerita. That's what I'm going to do.

Link here.

Twitter feed: everyone is now chiming in, including Saudi Aramco. Panic! Without Russian oil there is less than 2% spare capacity. I'm surprised there's any spare capacity without Russian oil. I doubted there was any spare capacity even before the Biden ban on oil.

But getting back to that graphic above. We've been through this before. Some years ago when oil was surging, Saudi Arabia again said it wasn't going to open the taps to give away there wealth. LOL. If they had the capacity, the reserves, the ability, they would sell all they could at these prices and then invest the profits in US blue chip companies with great dividends and guarantee a revenue stream for generations to come. 

But, some will say, they were able to flood the market a few year ago (2014 - 2016) when they tried to "break" US shale. If you go back and look at data for that period, you will find that flood of oil came out of storage; it was not new drilling. Their inventories right now are at relative historic lows. 

No, Saudi Arabia is not laying down rigs to preserve their oil wealth for future generations. They don't even think like that. Their thinking is tied up in one word: inshallah. 

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- March 8, 2022

Buffett: back in world's top five. Link here. I wasn't going to post the article; it's unimportant. But then I read the last paragraph; another example of a writer not thinking:

On Friday, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a purchase of almost 30 million additional shares in Occidental Petroleum Corp., a Houston-based oil and gas company. The deal, worth roughly $1.6 billion at midday Monday, helped draw down his company’s near-record $146.7 billion pile of cash.

So, $1.6 billion will help draw down his company's near-record $150 billion pile of cash. Oh, give me a break. If I have $150 and I give Sophia $2.00, for all intents and purposes I still have $150.  

On the other hand, this just goes to show me how much money BRK has -- makes a huge purchase -- 30 million shares of OXY -- and it doesn't even dent the pile of cash, much less the market cap of BRK. 

Buffett: here's the same story, again over at Yahoo!Finance, but it's not just a footnote. Now it's the headline: "Buffet chips away at cash pile with big Occidental bet." LOL. Chipping away is about as accurate as it gets. He spent $1.6 billion out of his $150 billion pile of cash. Whoo-hoo.

Biden: bans Russian oil, coal, natural gas. Pretty much bans everything. 

Russian oil: again for those who think Russia is still going to sell its oil, as long as its tankers can get out of the Black Sea. From S&P Global: surging oil, Russian crude woes pull down China independent refiners' runs. Link here. 

Race against time (they're reading the blog): Putin cannot "withstand" this war behond March. Link here. Russians are used to bare shelves, but this time it's gonna be a whole worse.

Bank of America (for what it's worth, I agree with all of this), link here:

• Bank of America's global oil team lifted oil price forecasts across the board, raising 2022 / 23 Brent forecasts to $110 / $95 from $85 / $75, respectively; the long-term price forecast was lifted from $60 to $70.
• The bank sees risk of a spike to $150 Brent, on the back of war in Ukraine.
• However, US analyst Doug Leggate is "disinclined to chase spot prices" writing that now is the time to rotate out of high-beta oil stocks, and into high-quality names and refiners.
• Leggate downgraded Ovintiv, OXY, NOG, COP, Diamondback, and EOG to hold from buy in Tuesday's note.
• Interestingly, the US analyst calls the environment a "golden age" for US refiners, as a pivot to bio-fuels has reduced capacity industry wide, and the crisis in Europe has raised operating costs for European competitors.
• Doug upgrades Holly, PBF, and Delek in Tuesday's note.
• In Europe, analyst Christopher Kuplent upgrades Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) to buy, citing structurally higher natural gas prices in Europe. 

Some thoughts:

• Brent forecasts are too low;
• I would not rotate out of (sell) high-beta stocks; I would hold; let profits run; use dividends, other revenue streams to start building / adding to positions in high-quality tech, streaming, and cloud names.

Help From Readers -- Re: Oasis And Whiting Merger -- March 8, 2020

From a reader:

Oasis and Whiting are going to merge.  Do you know what effect that has on the Oasis warrants that were issued after their bankruptcy?  We own quite a few and are wondering whether we should convert prior to the deal so we are official shareholders, or hold on to the warrants and sell at a later date.  Exercise price for the warrants is $94, with a five year window. 

From a reader in reply:

The warrants would be granted, within the time period, on a pro ratio basis by the merged or acquiring company.

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. Up ten basis points. Yield now at 1.851%.
  
• DXY: link here. Down slightly but still trending toward 100; now, 98.99.
  
• Silver: link here. Up almost 3%. Trading at $26.42.
  
• Gold: link here. We're solidly above $2,000. As high as $2,019 overnight; now $2,010.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Dropped 5.5% from previous, now 34.45, still at very high level. 

Selected equities, pre-market:

• CVX: up another $1.24.
• EOG: up $1.40 yesterday; up 60 cents today; trading at $121.
  
• UNP: after dropping $3.17 yesterday, up $2.47 this morning.
• SRE: down 84 cents today, after being up 92 cents yesterday. Trading at $152.
• OKE: flat yesterday; up 2% today. Trading at $69.80.
• BRK-B: down $2.62 yesterday, up $2.23 today. Trading at $235 this morning; 52-week high, $330.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Quinnipiac Poll -- March 8, 2022

Updates

Later, 8:07 a.m. CT: leading from behind. Poll was out two days ago. Today Biden bans Russian oil.

Original Post

Biden has united the country: vast majority of Americans say ban Russian oil.

Quinnipiac University national poll -- remember, this was Rush Limbaugh's favorite pollster; nearly 8 in 10 support US military response if Putin attacks a NATO country.

How can vast majority of Americans agree on banning Russian oil? Four percent of the average American's budget is fuel usage at the pump. Do you really think that a 30% increase in this portion of their budget is going to cause them to decrease their usage? Link here. 

For those who think Russia can still keep selling their oil if their tankers can just get out of the Blak Sea: we estimate that Russia's combined exports of crude oil and refined products have fallen by about 3 million bbls per day and could shrink another 2 million bbls per day next week. In round numbers, Russia exports about five million bbls of crude oil and refined products every day. Link here or here for the social medial response. Russia is headed for default within three months. What does Russia import most? Cars, packaged medicaments, vehicle parts, broadcasting equipment, planes, helicopters and/or spacecraft.

For Greta, your weekly reminder on progress towards climate goals out to 2050:

Graphic Of The Day -- Blue States With Cheapest Gasoline -- AARP -- March 8, 2022

Most perplexing: all of a sudden the blue states have the least expensive gasoline? Link here. Great catch by my most "eagle-eyed" reader. So, if you don't have television, and you are listening to NRP, the host will note that the blue states have the least expensive gasoline. Neither my reader nor I can make this stuff up.

CLR To Report One Well -- March 8, 2022

First things first: Apple special event today. Noon, CT. Streaming on Safari. It will be huge. 

Uncle Sam with hand out: it appears "everyone" is saying no. Apparently even Venezuela's Maduro has no interest in providing oil to the US. This suggests to me that Venezuela's oil sector is much like Mexico's. It has failed. They have enough oil for China, but not enough to supply the US. More to come over the next few days.

Oil:

• WTI: $122.80, up $3.44.
• Brent: $127.30, up $4.08.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$122.80	3/8/2022	03/08/2021	03/08/2020	03/08/2019	03/08/2018
Active Rigs	32	16	55	67	59

Tuesday, March 8, 2022: 10 for the month, 118 for the quarter, 118 for the year

• 38127, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 6-5H,

RBN Energy: how close is Cheniere to FID on another terminal expansion, part 2. Archived. I remember when I first started talking about all these LNG export terminals, must have been six years ago, all the push back I got from folks "it's not gonna happen."

US LNG export terminals are tracked here.

Cheniere Energy is by far the largest owner and operator of U.S. LNG capacity, with 45 MMtpa across nine liquefaction trains at two terminals: the six-train Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and the three-train Corpus Christi terminal in South Texas. But when Sabine Pass Train 6 was placed into service earlier this year, it marked the first time since 2012 that Cheniere had no capacity under construction. 

The pause may not last long. With global demand for LNG super-strong and prices even stronger — the April Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract hit a record $72.53/MMBtu on March 7 — and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatening future supplies of Russian gas into Europe, Cheniere may be poised to make a final investment decision (FID) on the next stage of its Corpus Christi LNG. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the next wave of U.S. LNG projects with a closer look at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III.

Cleaning Out The Stuff That Arrived Overnight -- And I'm Barely Getting Started -- March 8, 2022

Just when you thought things were getting back to normal:

$200 oil: traders are now betting on $200 oil by the end of March, 2022 -- that's less than three weeks. 

EVs: granted, my twitter feed is very pro-oil very anti-renewable energy, but having said that, those who I follow are pretty good at what they do: follow and analyze energy. Going through the twitter feed this morning suggests that things are not going all that well for EV owners. Common them: high cost of electricity for charging and "range-anxiety."

EVs: electric vehicles will be luxury goods for the next twenty years. Not enough copper production in the world to upgrade the electrical grid or make the batteries required at a reasonable cost for mass adoption. As EVs get more expensive, they will make less sense for 98% of Americans.

EVs: Tesla rivals Lucid, Rivian, Fisker struggling to compete. The stock market has stopped being kind to EV companies that show more promise (LOL) than results. A long and very good article. 

EVs: Rivian stock tumbles as EV maker hikes prices ahead of earnings. How this was handled, by the way, was a PR disaster for Rivian.

Charging footprint: even with long gas lines, it only takes five minutes to fill up an ICE. These cars will each take 15 minutest to 45 minutes to charge. And this is a fairly normal day, I would imagine. There's just no way there's this kind of room for parking EVs waiting to be charged in west Los Angeles. Link here. Note the URL.

Shell: well, that didn't take long -- Shell got a lot of negative press when it said it would still buy Russian oil to keep the price of oil from surging. Shell says it will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude.

Most perplexing: all of a sudden the blue states have the least expensive gasoline? Link here. Great catch by my most "eagle-eyed" reader. So, if you don't have television, and you are listening to NRP, the host will note that the blue states have the least expensive gasoline. Neither my reader nor I can make this stuff up.