Apple Doubles The Price Of RAM Upgrade On Entry-Level 13-Inch MacBook Pro After Only Month Since Introduction -- May 30, 2020

Earlier I posted a number of Apple, Inc., (AAPL) items. The overall flavor of those items? A "feel-good" feeling. But after posting that, I came across this item: Apple doubles the price of RAM upgrade on entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro. This was abrupt, unexpected, and not met with kindness on social media.

This is a biggie.

This looks like a huge change in thinking at Apple. The new 13-inch MacBook Pro was launched just one month ago. What changed? I can only imagine some contentious discussions in the board room on this new price point.

There can only be three reasons for this increase in price:

• first, there truly is a shortage of RAM, driving up the price
• if so, the wholesale price of RAM is trivial, well less than the upgrade price Apple is charging, and Apple is taking advantage of this;
• if so, the wholesale price of RAM is significant, necessitating the increase in the new retail price by Apple
• second, there is a demand/supply problem for the MacBook Pro and to either temper demand, or take advantage of the demand, Apple raises the price;
• third, pure profit motive for many reasons. 

Arguments against:

• reason #1: it's hard to believe Apple missed that just one month earlier;
• reason #2: Apple has never been accused of being worried about unit shortages; in fact, Apple is often accused of generating artificial shortage;

Which leaves, the third reason: pure profit.

A little background:

• the entry level of memory (RAM) is 8 GB
• the upgrade is 16 GB of memory (RAM)
• a month after the MacBook Pro was released Apple doubled the upgrade price of 8 GB to 16GB 
• the "doubling," takes the price from an additional $100 to an additional $200 if one chooses to upgrade

Comments, on pricing:

• if $100 was "not trivial" for the basic MacBook Pro, $200 for the upgrade is definitely "not trivial."
• it takes the base model from $1299 to $1499; and the $1499 model to $1699.

Comments, on choice:

• it's my impression that 90% of folks whose choice is between the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro, the Air is more than adequate
• for this 90% of users, the price increase noted today is not an issue
• only the very "high end" users need a MacBook Pro rather than the Air
• "high end" users will not settle for entry-level-8-GB RAM
• "high end" users, able to afford the MacBook Pro, can easily afford the "upgrade" price (although they might be a bit miffed)

Apple's cachet:

• long-term Apple customers know they are paying "up" for the Apple cachet, 
• many folks suggest Apple is not particularly concerned about charges of "price gouging" or their "luxury tax"
  

Bottom line:

When I put everything together, I lean toward those who feel Apple raised the price almost purely for reasons of profit. The fact that the price was changed so quickly after introduction of the model -- again, one month -- suggests it has to do with the global economy more than an increase in the wholesale price of storage.

Back to choice:

• my MacBook Air has 4 GB of memory and 128 GB of storage. The 4 GB of memory seems "adequate," but the base model MacBook Air has 8 GB which is good news
• without question, the 128 GB of storage I have is not nearly enough and I'm not a heavy user of storage. The good news? The entry level MacBook Air comes with 256 GB of storage. One can double the storage to 512 GB for an additional $200

I apologize for the meandering of this post. I'm listening to the commentary while watching Alfred Hitchcock's Notorious.

Bottom, bottom line:

• 90% of Apple laptop users don't need the MacBook Pro; the MacBook Air is more than enough;
• the MacBook Air comes in only one size, 13-inch, which eliminates the size-dimension problem;
• entry level 8 GB is adequate; although I could be easily convinced otherwise;
• entry level of 256 GB is more than adequate;
• having said that, whether to upgrade either memory (8 GB) or storage (256 GB) is a toss-up; both upgrades cost $200;
• for me, I would upgrade the memory, from 8 GB to 16 GB; one can easily buy external storage, including the "cloud"
• others may prefer upgrading the storage, from 256 GB to 512 GB for the same amount;
• upgrading both for $400 significantly increases the price of this entry level Air which is $999;
• high school senior heading off to college on limited budget: the entry-level MacBook Air; no upgrades needed; and definitely not the MacBook Pro unless one has much experience with the MacBook Air and knows their own needs;

By the way, I don't know if there were any other price increases, but if the price increase only involves the MacBook Pro, to some extent the whole argument is moot (this whole post was unnecessary): Apple was simply aligning the price for memory upgrade across all models.

Jump In Production; Two MRO Wells In Reunion Bay -- May 30, 2020

The wells:

• 20050, 1,226, MRO, Red Feather USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 387K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
• 20051, 1,169, MRO, Red Feather USA 21-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 382K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;

Production periods of interest:

• 20051:

BAKKEN	11-2019	30	6311	6305	2570	7746	6336	922
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	7083	7022	3219	9045	6335	2187
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	11909	11959	10454	11731	979	9945
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	12584	12539	13984	12939	0	12106
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	13436	13432	15999	13829	0	12938
BAKKEN	6-2019	12	3639	3722	8888	3323	0	3081
BAKKEN	5-2019	17	8150	9110	27129	7946	0	7406
BAKKEN	4-2019	5	1475	412	9119	1468	0	1252
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	4	306	826	191	391	0	343
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	3454	4462	1424	3597	2097	1061
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	3824	3253	1710	3826	3280	153

• 20050:

BAKKEN	11-2019	30	6559	6578	1246	8197	6583	1106
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	9609	9528	4294	10561	7241	2624
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	16159	16243	20235	23033	1896	20016
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	20435	20367	20586	29879	0	28508
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	23792	23765	22318	34613	0	33011
BAKKEN	6-2019	8	2898	3007	4751	3798	0	3602
BAKKEN	5-2019	17	9851	9726	42109	12832	0	12172
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	177	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	21	1176	1706	172	1270	715	362
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1770	1483	297	1881	1517	71

A CLR Cedar Coulee Carus Well Goes Over 500K In Style -- May 30, 2020

The well:

• 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; Bakken pool, t8/07; cum 548K 3/20;

The well is followed at this post. It has a very interesting history. Previously posted:

16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee on the scout ticket; has been in production since 2007; not sure why it is on the confidential list; a stripper well as of June 17, 2016; an extended reach single lateral; middle Bakken; drilling target: approximately 27 feet thick, about 9' below the base of the upper Bakken shale; 100% within the drilling zone; spud June 10, 2007; KOP: June 22, 2007; cease drilling/TVD, 11,386.65 feet, July 15, 2007; average background gas -- very, very low, almost nil in much of the lateral; open hole completion, 1 million lbs sand; IP of 508; permit for BR (#16648, Carus 24-28H, Oakdale field, Dunn County; Change of Operator from BR to CLR, February 5, 2008; at that time #16648 still Carus 24-28H. The NDIC map does not show any Carus 24-28H; it appears the scout ticket is wrong --

Random Update Of A Madison Well In Portal Oil Field -- May 30, 2020

The well:

• 33937, 102, Petro Harvester Operating, PTL2 4-16 163-92D, Portal oil field, target: Madison pool; t3/19; cum 56K 3/20; 

From the well file:

• 14 stages;
• 14.2 million lbs
• horizontal; TD=15,244 feet
• 30'-target
• spud: October 13, 2018
• TD: November 3, 2018

Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
MADISON	3-2020	31	2535	2063	35814	24375	23437	938
MADISON	2-2020	29	2697	2784	33173	22565	22433	132
MADISON	1-2020	31	2924	3126	35879	21882	21304	578
MADISON	12-2019	31	3432	3320	40718	25887	23992	1895
MADISON	11-2019	30	3507	3397	38584	20500	19752	748
MADISON	10-2019	31	4330	4750	46155	21516	21504	12
MADISON	9-2019	30	4698	4280	45522	21421	21418	3
MADISON	8-2019	31	5200	5341	50586	21101	20202	899
MADISON	7-2019	31	6161	6057	51107	20290	16123	4167
MADISON	6-2019	30	7543	7661	53583	17954	17566	388
MADISON	5-2019	31	7822	7875	57243	18607	18104	503
MADISON	4-2019	25	3646	3712	32179	5546	5506	40
MADISON	3-2019	22	1356	547	28790	1475	1126	349
MADISON	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

A 50-Fold Jump In Production In A Charlson Oil Field Well -- May 30, 2020

Neighboring wells recently fracked:

• 13,039 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 21,732 bbls
• 20,000 bbls / 400 bbls = a 40-fold jump in production

The well:

• 16711, 297, Petro-Hunt, USA 1D-4-1H, 640-acre spacing; Charlson, t6/08; cum 133K 3/20;

Production period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	16023	16117	3929	13422	13206	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	19025	19016	4590	29566	3607	25757
BAKKEN	1-2020	18	13039	12395	4618	12719	0	12594
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	19	218	436	46	15	0	15
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	349	204	78	253	0	253
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	390	447	60	281	56	225
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	394	500	77	304	192	84

Random Update Of A Rimrock Moccasin Creek DUC -- May 30, 2020

Almost 400K in one year.

• 46 stages; 12.6 million lbs
• 2560-acre spacing: sections 3/4/9/10-147-93
• TD: 21,115 feet

The well:

• 35499, 2,859, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, t3/19; cum 384K 3/20;

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	18569	18339	13182	23623	23549	74
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	19688	19700	14958	24513	24505	8
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	24234	24204	17965	27993	27848	145
BAKKEN	12-2019	24	21303	21318	15275	20036	19488	547
BAKKEN	11-2019	28	25488	25558	18253	25235	24622	587
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	32580	32513	26014	31737	27543	3522
BAKKEN	9-2019	19	18115	18105	17083	14449	9329	3937
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	35285	35470	32300	34689	18649	14563
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	36437	36422	31454	36437	24356	10821
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	36680	36537	35243	34237	24401	9587
BAKKEN	5-2019	26	30995	31017	32928	26960	15272	11688
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	57847	57962	59269	26112	0	26112
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	26786	26361	24899	15200	0	15200

Why I Love To Blog, Reason #1 -- Now I Know What All The Excitement Was About -- Updating Nine Point Energy' Wells In Eightmile -- May 30, 2020

This is really, really cool, on so many levels. I actually missed this story for several days, maybe weeks, but with time on my hands today, I decided to take a look. 

At the sidebar at the right, there is an app that posts the top ten trending posts. Most top trending posts are recent posts, but when an "old" post rises to the top, it's time to take a look.

See this post. The original post was January 28, 2020. At that time, the most recent production data was for the month 11/19. At that time all completed wells were producing.

It is strange to see a post this old to be trending among the top ten. So, let's take a look.

Well, well, well. What do we see? The producing wells at the time of the original post are now all off line; and, the wells that were on "drl" status are now producing and have moved to the conf list. And finally the wells that were producing a small amount back in November, 2019, are now into full production.

So, now we know. The mom-and-pop mineral rights owners were checking into see what was going on. They must have received their royalty checks. Whoo-hoo!

There are so many story lines here:

• first, of course, the royalty checks for small mineral owners;
• second, once the price oil "comes back," the checks will be bigger;
• third, this opens up an entire new area for E&P;
• fourth, hopefully Nine Point Energy can hang through this downturn; they've been through this once before;  
• fifth, the tenacity, the persistence, the git 'er done attitude of oil men and women; and, 
• probably a lot more.

By the way,  a huge apology for failing to get this posted. I completely missed it. I'm sure a lot of mineral owners were upset with my delay in getting this posted. I learned a lesson.

The wells:

• 34783, 1,004, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-1H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 190K 11/19; a 24K month; now, 221K 3/20; only seven days 3/20; remains off line 4/20;
  
• 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 207K 11/19; a 30K month; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20;
  
• 34785, 1,083, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 241K 11/19; a 24K month; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20;

• 34786, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-4H, Eightmile, 

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  4-2020	11917	2886
  3-2020	739	0

• 34787, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H, Eightmile,
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  4-2020	16907	6850
  3-2020	697	466

• 34788, drl, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H, Eightmile,

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  4-2020	16535	7390
  3-2020	35	13

• 36157, 895, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eightmile, t12/19; cum 105K 4/20;
  
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  3-2020	17389	0
  2-2020	15701	0
  1-2020	26216	0
  12-2019	30245	0
  11-2019	19	0



• 36156, 1,018, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-11H, 80 stages; 13 million lbs; some ceramic; proposed 1600 acres (sections 10, 11 &E2/9-152-103); TD = 24,263 feet; lateral drilled in 64 hours; length of lateral, 12,840 feet; curve, 820 feet drilled in 13 hours; vertical (big rig), 1,700 feet drilled in 17 hours; gas: averaged 1,233 units in the lateral; maxed out at 7,013 units; Eightmile, t12/19; cum 106K 4/20;
  
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	3-2020	31	23032	22538	61899	25306	0	25306
  BAKKEN	2-2020	24	10121	10304	32366	11323	0	11323
  BAKKEN	1-2020	31	20653	20661	60923	15769	0	15769
  BAKKEN	12-2019	30	25642	25921	76274	26702	0	26702
  BAKKEN	11-2019	9	7582	6950	48719	2373	0	2373



• 36155, 983, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-110H, 80 stages; 13 million lbs; some ceramic; proposed 1600 acres (sections 10, 11 &E2/9-152-103); TD = 24,263 feet; Eightmile, t11/19; cum 118K 4/20;
  
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	3-2020	28	19982	19612	55898	26359	0	26359
  BAKKEN	2-2020	27	12408	12512	36613	13415	0	13415
  BAKKEN	1-2020	31	18163	18253	56928	24050	0	24050
  BAKKEN	12-2019	31	28579	29697	72341	32286	0	32286
  BAKKEN	11-2019	24	18117	16605	58555	11698	0	11698

• 37259, drl, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-4-11-9H, Eightmile,
• 37258, rig-on-site (January, 2020)-->drl, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-4-11-8H, Eightmile, 

The graphics:

June 10, 2020:

May 30, 2020:

 

Rigs Don't Matter -- Laying Down Rigs, Shutting In Wells, And Still It Rises -- And So Do Exports .... Natural Gas -- Part 2 -- May 30, 2020

In response, I suppose, to my post earlier today: rigs don't matter -- US natural gas production continues to increase, a reader sent me a note. But before we get to that note, a reminder of what I wrote earlier:

Natural gas fill rate, link here. Look at these numbers, simply staggering. And this comes despite the industry "shutting down" as fast as it can:

• working gas storage: an increase of 109 BCF from the previous week
• working gas storage: an increase of 42% year-over-year
• working gas storage: an increase of 19% over 5-year-average (and the 5-year average keeps increasing)

Not entirely true, but from my perspective, the three major US shale oil plays are actually giving the US shale natural gas plays a run for their money.

Over the past few weeks, I have caught some of the stories regarding the US natural gas industry but a reader really, really put it into perspective. So, while protesters tear down the US and drive to their destinations in SUVs running on inexpensive, readily accessible, and consistently pure-grade gasoline or diesel fuel, this is what "their" US energy sector is doing. Again, a huge "thanks" to the reader for putting this all together:

• Deals:
• Ukraine just signed purchase agreement for US LNG for annual out put of one (1) standard LNG train (~5 mtpa); the Ukraine is in Russia's backyard;
• Turkey is not repairing the damaged gas pipeline from Iran and, instead, is purchasing US LNG
• likewise, US LNG is cheaper than piped Gazprom pricing (~$7/mmbtu) and so Turkey is also reducing LNG from Russia 
• the Yamal-Poland gas pipe currently not flowing supply as Poland ramps up purchases of US LNG
• both Algeria and Egypt have greatly curtailed exports of natgas due to low pricing.
• Customers such as Cyprus, Croatia, Italy, Hungary are either now switching to US LNG purchases or are planning to
• Qatar is struggling to extend LNG supply contracts to both India and Pakistan as their ~$7/mmbtu prices are higher than current ~$4/$5 spot mostly sourced from USA 
• Singapore is not renewing contracts to receive piped gas from nearby Malaysian and Indonesian suppliers as  US LNG prices are so much lower 
• the reader's favorite: the world's leading LNG exporter - Australia - may start IMPORTING LNG from US into Port Kembla by next year.
• Reader's comments:
• people seem generally oblivious to the ultra-low cost to extract US 'shale' natgas, liquefy it, and transport it in ships that use the "boil off gas" for fuel (essentially cost free fuel).
• just as the Saudi government is pinched for oil-connected revenues, other global players are starting to be squeezed in a BIG way by competition from US LNG.

My comments:

Those are amazing data points; I had no idea of the "immensity."

I had seen a few of these data points over the past few weeks but I only caught a few of them. When all of them are put together, as you note, it's a reminder (for lack of a better word) how incredibly dominant the US energy sector really is.

Some years from now, I suspect, the current demand destruction issue / COVID-19 pandemic will be seen as a speed bump and at best a footnote in America's energy history.

Boil off gas (link here): 

Notes From All Over -- The Saturday Lockdown Edition -- Part 2 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 30, 2020

SpaceX launch. Elon Musk.

• ignition
• lift-off
• lit Roman candle
• T+1:00 minute: all systems go; system super-sonic
• throttling up to full power
• 2.3 g's
• T+2:00 minutes
• throttling down first stage; main engine cut-off
• stage separation; second stage ignited
• into orbit
• T+8:00 minutes: second engine cut-off
• first stage returning to ocean for retrieval for re-use 
• T+12 minutes: "in space"; in orbit; officially en route to the ISS

President Trump on-scene. No one in presidential viewing stand is wearing a mask. The president was there for the Wednesday launch also when the mission was scrubbed due to weather.

Over at Twitter, Elon Musk tweets that the booster rocket successfully landed on the retrieval drone, #51 of 52 such landings. Elon Musk tweets a video of the 51 successful landings from various vantage points. 

I had a devil of a time buying this when it was originally released. It was constantly out of stock. Finally, for a brief moment it was available. I ordered it on-line but somewhere along the line the order failed.

I immediately called Lego's help desk; individual very, very helpful. He immediately "saved" my purchase and the model was shipped. Interestingly, the individual that helped me get this model said he had been unable to order it due to limited supplies, and like me, visited the Lego home page frequently, hoping to catch it when it was available. He was unaware that it was temporarily available and said as soon as his shift was over he was headed home to order "his."

He was not allowed to order products while on company computers.

I don't remember the price I paid. I believe it was $119. Oh, yes, there is it, $119. It is now going for $248 over at Amazon. Item #21309, released June, 2017, only four years ago, and already retired. It's a very, very impressive model.

Notes From All Over -- The Saturday Lockdown Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 30, 2020

Apple: the Apple Store in Southlake, TX, is now "open" in accordance with their re-opening announcements. Most business is done outside the store. Appears to be working very, very well.

Apple: huge pent-up demand.

Sold out: as posted previously, iPads are sold out at Costco, and have been for about a week. Obviously a shortage of parts, and a huge pent-up demand. 

Apple: continues to innovate. It's interesting. Before the smart phones, most of us grew up on ATT beige desktop or wall phones. I used those phones for thirty, maybe forty years. In all that time, I am unaware of any major upgrade. Pick up a humongous receiver; dial on a rotary dial; listen for the dial tone, etc. That was it: no innovation for decades. Now, with smart phones, and particularly Apple, upgrades often on the operating system. Amazing. In hindsight, one wonders what ATT was doing all those years. Here's another example.

Apple: forty percent of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway mutual fund is AAPL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The phones from my mother's home, photos courtesy of my youngest sister, Jan:

***************************************

The Lego Page

Lego: Disney Castle out of stock. Pretty amazing. This set was released in 2016. It's more than mature. No reason to expect this model to be "temporarily unavailable." One wonders how many fathers are buying this set for their six-year-olds in lieu of going to Disneyland this summer.

Available at Amazon for nearly $700, once you factor in taxes, et al.

Texas Cautiously Re-Opening -- Bloomberg -- May 30, 2020

Link here. I was able to access this with no paywall -- not sure why. If you hit a paywall, there are often ways to get around those paywalls.

From the linked article:

Concerns erupted a month ago that coronavirus infections could surge after the state eased social-distancing measures—in just one example, prominent Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke called the Republican governor’s plan “dangerous.” And in recent days, there’s been an uptick in reported cases, though the rate of gains over the past seven weeks has been stable at about 1,000 a day. Texans appear to have evolved from a lockdown, which they took less seriously than other states, into a middle ground that hasn’t yet led to new outbreaks.

Note: again, the writer does not mention that testing for coronavirus has increased in Texas. Tracking cases -- with no other analysis -- is probably one of the least best ways to sort this out. If one is doing more testing, and the number of new cases remains relatively unchanged or even decreases, that speaks volumes.

If one runs the numbers: if this virus first appeared in our country sometime in January, 2020, or at the latest, February, 2020, then "everyone" should have been exposed by now. If you don't agree, do you think masks alone would prevent a smallpox pandemic? If so, we have nothing to worry about. Masks will save us from biowarfare, and a/c will save us from global warming.

Back to the Texas story, the corona-virus-associated case fatality rate for:

• Harris County (Houston): deaths - 228;  population - 4.8 million;  CFR =  0.0000475 = 0.00475%
• El Paso County: deaths - 77; population - 750,000; CFR =  0.0001 = 0.01%
• El Paso / Harris County: 2.105
• twice as many deaths per capita in El Paso than Houston

**********************************

Lake Mead

Monthly check. Link here.

2020: we're doing better than 2019; and 2019, was better than 2018.

I'm just amazed at the precision of the data. Yesterday it was reported that Lake Mead dropped 0.09 feet. That's 1.08 inches. That boggles the mind that they can report it so closely.

It Must Have Been Quite A Party -- May 30, 2020

When I work up this morning, and walked to the kitchen to get a cup of coffee, this is what I saw on the dining room table (which also functions as as the breakfast table, crafts table, Polly Pocket's changing room, Corky's bakery, and  Sophia's LEGO assembly area). It must have been quite a party last night. LOL.

On another note, but speaking of Sophia, we have been working on addition, using different techniques, including flashcards, of course, as well as hash marks and fingers. It appears "hash marks" is the preferred Montessori method.

I am now working with Sophia on "solving for x," which is a magnitude of difficulty greater than simple addition, which surprised me. It appears incredibly challenging which I did not expect. I write out formulas like "x + 3 = 10" and I ask her to tell me which number added to three will yield ten. It seems incredibly simple but she has great difficulty, even though she knows 3 + 7 = when doing addition exercises.

I thought about it all day yesterday trying to sort out why it is so difficult for a five-year-old to comprehend what we are trying to do. Obviously it's subtraction but even trial and error should result in the correct answer fairly quickly.

It dawned on me that Sophia "knows" her numbers and she has a grasp for visualizing what three apples are or what seven pennies are but trying to bring all that abstraction and concreteness together just doesn't work when trying to "solve for x."

I don't know.

But thinking that might be the problem, what other tool do we have that could combine that abstract formula on paper ("x + 3 = 10") with something concrete? Yes, pennies work but I wanted to get away from the mundane. Something different.

Voila.

The abacus. She has a beautiful abacus and has been exposed to it at TutorTime-Montessori but has never really used it as a tool. I think in our culture -- certainly in our household -- the abacus is a "toy," and not a tool.

So, last night we -- Sophia and I -- used the abacus for the first time to "solve for x." Wow! It was incredible. She immediately got the hang of it was doing advanced calculus in no time. Just joking. But in no time she was solving for x and very, very proud of her ability to do that.

The spin-off is this: now that "we" see the abacus as a tool (and not a toy), we will continue to explore how we can use the abacus to do other things.

Pelagibacterales -- Nothing To Do WIth The Bakken -- May 30, 2020

First things first: SpaceX Falcon 9 will try again today: 3:22 p.m. EDT or 2:22 p.m. CDT. This will be SpaceX' first attempt to send astronauts to infinity and beyond. Just kidding. They will go only as far as the international space station. By the way, I was not aware how "big" the international space station really is. It's huge. Lego has an international space station model and it includes the space shuttle. The space station absolutely dwarfs the space shuttle.

The Original Post

The technology today is simply incredible, and what students know by eighth grade far exceeds what we knew when I was starting college.

This was brought home to me yesterday (again) when Arianna, our oldest granddaughter, senior in high school, and I were talking about chemistry, her favorite science subject, but not her favorite subject. Her favorite subjects are drama and poetry. But I digress.

We were able to discuss atoms, neutrons, protons, electrons, etc., asking ourselves questions and coming to some sort of answer based on things she already knew and things that I did not know when I was taking high school chemistry. "Knowing" stuff makes it so much easier than simply memorizing stuff when trying to understand things.

One of things I have done over the years is keep lists of words that I come across when reading. These are words that are new to me; words I should know but don't; words that I think Arianna should know; words that seem interesting; etc. I simply list them with minimal categorization. 

At the sidebar at the right, I have a link to Watts Up With That and every two or three days I check in on that site to scroll through the stories that have appeared since I last checked in. I happened to catch an article on bacteria in the ocean. The article did not interest me much but the name of the bacteria caught my attention. From the article:

University of Washington oceanographers discovered that the bacteria that dominate seawater, known as Pelagibacter or SAR11, hosts a unique virus.

With SARS and corona virus in the news, I was struck by "SAR 11."

But even more so, I was struck by it's "common" name: Pelagibacter.

One of the first words ever I put on Arianna's word list was pelagic, which means far out at sea. I first came across the word when Arianna and I were studying birds and read that the albatross was unique in being one of the few (only?) true pelagic birds. What a great word to know.

So, then, after all these years -- I probably started the vocabulary lists four years ago -- I come across "pelagic" again -- "Pelagibacter."

But first I googled "SAR11 bacterial."

The search takes me to "Pelagibaterales."  And then that took me to "streamlining theory."

Genomic streamlining is a theory in evolutionary biology and microbial ecology that suggests that there is a reproductive benefit to prokaryotes having a smaller genome size with less non-coding DNA and fewer non-essential genes.

There is a lot of variation in prokaryotic genome size, with the smallest free-living cell's genome being roughly ten times smaller than the largest prokaryote.

Two of the bacterial taxa with the smallest genomes are Prochlorococcus and Pelagibacter ubique, both highly abundant marine bacteria commonly found in oligotrophic regions.

Similar reduced genomes have been found in uncultured marine bacteria, suggesting that genomic streamlining is a common feature of bacterioplankton. This theory is typically used with reference to free-living organisms in oligotrophic environments.

And then that took me full circle back to corona virus which is very, very "streamlined" with only eight genes, if I recall correctly. Macht nichts.

But then look at that! A new word to add to Arianna's list: oligotrophic.

Examples of oligotrophic organisms are the cave-dwelling olm; the bacterium, Pelagibacter ubique, which is the most abundant organism in the oceans with an estimated 2 × 1028 individuals in total; and the lichens with their extremely low metabolic rate. 

Until today I had never heard of pelagic bacteria, now it seems to pop up everywhere. But the point is that students starting off in college these days know so much more and have access to so much more that I ever did.

I post the vocabulary lists that I give to Arianna over at my literature blog. Here is the link to the first list that included pelagic. I think my library of words has grown to seven lists, and continues grow.

By the way, riparian is on the list and I first came across that list because of the Bakken.

By the way, where did "SAR" come from in this case? From microbewiki:

The order was originally named SAR11 following its discovery in the Sargasso Sea in 1990 by Professor Stephen Giovannoni and colleagues, from Oregon State University.

It was first placed in the order of Rickettsiales, but after rRNA gene-based phyogenetic analysis, in 2013 it was raised to the rank of order, and then placed as sister order to the Rickettsiales in the subclass Rickettsidae. They are most closely related to the their sister order, the Rickettsiales. 

The Sargasso Sea is important for this reason: that's where American eels spawn. And that was not known until very, very recently. That spawned (pun intended) an entire book on the American eel.

American eels are the only species of freshwater eel found in North America. ... Eels have a complex lifecycle that begins far offshore in the Sargasso Sea where adults spawn. After eggs hatch, young eels drift inland with ocean currents into streams, rivers and lakes for over 3,700 miles. This journey may take many years.

From microbewiki and the Sargasso Sea:

One of the documented most abundant microbes of the marine world, as well as the Sargasso Sea, belongs to the clade of SAR11 α – proteobacteria.

The name “Sar” was given to this family of bacteria due to their discovery in the Sargasso Sea in 1990.

One species that is of most interest to researchers is that of Pelagibacter ubique. P. ubique covers 30% of the surface in the Sargasso. During the summer months the population of this bacterium can cover up to 50% of the ocean’s surface weighing more than the weight of all of the fish in the all of the collective oceans.

What make these bacteria an interest of research, is its ability to thrive in an environment low in nutrients and resources. This bacterium can surprisingly replicate efficiently in a low nutrient environment and is one of the smallest self-replicating cells found.

Evolutionary genome reduction has been observed in this microbe. This is consistent with the hypothesis of “genome streamlining driven by selection acting on a very large population which resides in a very low nutrient habitat.”

The belief is that the bacterium’s genome is being reduced so not to expend energy on replicating DNA with no adaptive value. This saves the the organism from performing unnecessary metabolic tasks

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Naomi Seibt vs St Greta

From Not A Lot of People Know That: well, isn't this interesting? And at wiki.