Monday, September 30, 2024

Famous Deaths Come In "Three's" -- Here's The Third -- Pete Rose, Age 83 -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48445ARCHIVES.

Deaths: Dame Maggie Smith (89); Kris Kristofferson (88); Pete Rose (83).

Israel: begins ground operations into Lebanon. 

This is absolutely fascinating. And one gets the feeling Netanyahu's timing could not have been more fortuitous. The US military backs Israel to the hilt. The US president, probably ambivalent, is more than a lame duck. His vice president, incredibly ambivalent but knows not why, won't take a stand with only 30-some days left before the election. Netanyahu's window of opportunity has opened and will remain open until January 20, 2025. 

It looks like geopolitics and Mother Nature finally caught up to the Biden administration. Two shooting wars -- Ukraine and Israel -- and a bigger concern, China? The latter just fired a ballistic missile into the Pacific -- the first such public test in decades.

And, then, of course, the clean-up from Hurricane Helene will easily carry us through the election -- with every incumbent from Florida to Ohio at risk if the federal and state response goes badly. Rick Scott, Florida, looks particularly vulnerable.

A port strike on the east coast stretching down to Texas? 

One can only imagine what Rocket Man (Kim Jong Un) might be thinking. 

US equities: AAPL had an incredible day, did not give up any gains even after hours. Might this be the reason?

Shares of Apple, currently the most valuable company in the world, closed just shy of their all-time high on Monday. Apple’s stock price rose 2.3% to $233 on the last day of the quarter. That is less than 1% below its record close on July 16, 2024 of $234.82. 

The stock has risen during four of the last five trading days and is up 21% year to date, about the same as the Nasdaq Composite and slightly ahead of the S&P 500’s 20% rise. 

It wasn’t immediately clear what caused the gains, but a Morgan Stanley report on Monday pointed to stabilizing lead times for some models of the iPhone 16, which was announced September 9, 2024. 

“While this doesn’t change our view on this cycle, we view the elongation of iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max lead times as a positive leaning development worth watching,” the report noted. The analysts rate Apple as Overweight and a top pick.

Much more at the linked article. The camera "is selling" the phone, and AI is yet to roll out. This will be fascinating to watch.

Bidenonimcs In Two Charts -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48444ECONOMY.

S&P 500, link here:

US S&P 5000 vs Shanghai Composite, link here:


More charts here.

And still more charts here.

And, the best recent set here.

Oasis With Four New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48443B.

Tag: beer.

The history of pilsner: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.36.

Active rigs: 38.

Four new permits, #41187 - #41190, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Tioga (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for four Vernon wells, SWNW 34-157-95; to be sited 270 FWL and at the following distances FNL: 2193; 2226; 2292; and, 2325. Three of the wells will be the standard 1280-acre spacing unit; the fourth somewhat larger:
      • sections 34 / 35-157-95 = 1280 acres
      • section 5 = 640 acres
      • W/2 W/2 (160) and W/2 E/2 W/2 (80) of section 4 = 240 acres (?)
      • E/2 W/2 of section 6 = 160 acres
      • total = 2,176 acres (?)

The map, for #41190:

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40167, 3,828, MRO, Vondall USA 12-20TFH, McKenzie,
  • 40250, 2,733, CLR, Benner 2-7HSL, Dunn,
  • 40251, 1,957, CLR, Benner 3-7H, Dunn,
  • 40257, 1,693, CLR, Chase 4-18H, Dunn,

Autos -- The Big Story This Year -- But Not For Good Reasons -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48442EVS.

Tag: autos hurricane Helene port strikes silver

Silver: how big a deal is the Chinese stimulus? It's a big deal. Silver was already heading for historic highs, but now there's talk of an epic breakout for silver. Whoo-hoo!

Autos: CNBC had long interview with Mark Fields, former Ford president and CEO, on American autos --- Ford has / had the wrong answer .... maybe we'll come back to this. Hint: the Chinese are marketing a $10,000 EV.

On another note, back on September 26, 2023, Biden made history, walking with workers striking the automakers.

Now President Biden and VP Harris have a chance to walk the picket lines with those striking the East Coast and GoM ports.

The Europeans -- especially the European car makers -- are going to get crushed. Think Lego. Lego already has had a huge back-order problem due to shipping issues. Except for autos, Lego, and high-cost purses, I can't think of much coming from Europe that catches my attention. Had this been on the west coast ---

China, US west coast ports, UNP are going to do very, very well. 

This is the week to watch tickers -- one will quickly see which companies will be the winners and which will be the losers due to this strike at the ports. Me? Not worried. 

The bigger story? The devastation from Hurricane Helene from northwestern Florida through the Carolinas into Tennessee and even into Ohio. What an opportunity -- an responsibility -- for American "know-how" to get supplies into these devastated regions. Having said that, one analyst says the devastation was horrendous, but not as bad as Ian (September 28, 2022) two years ago.

Apple: The Wild-Spending Days Are Over -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48441AAPL.

Tag: Apple.

And to think at one time, some analysts wanted Apple to acquire Disney. Ouch. And even more analysts have recommended selling AAPL. Cramer? Nope: he says "own" AAPL, don't trade it.

The market close today:

Ticker:


What's going on?

What else? It looks like the CEO and the CFO had a "come to Jesus meeting" with the wild-spending folks. That decade is over. Link here. Finally they get it.

Disney:

Disney vs Apple:

Vs NVDA last six months.

Hezbollah -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48440MIDEAST.

Never quit reading.

The Atlantic, Hussein Ibish, September 30, 2024, analysis: link here.  

We've seen this movie before: the Greco-Persian wars, fifth and sixth centuries BCE

The Greco-Persian Wars, Peter Green, with a new introduction, c. 1996. A revised edition of Xerxes at Salamis, 1970. Notes here.

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Russia: History

Link here. If I was a bit more interested, and had a bit more time for reading, this would be at the top of my list: Timothy Snyder on how the collapse of the Soviet Union took America by surprise. What freedom means in moments of economic and political transformation.

Cleaning Off The Desktop -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48439INV.

Screenshots from last week:





Mystery solved:

Someone doesn't know their geography!



Last Day Of The Third Quarter -- Entering The Holiday Season -- Halloween, Thanksgiving, Winter Break And New Year's -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48438B.

Most surprising: the little mainstream press that Hurricane Helene seemed to have gotten over the past few days in the media that I follow compared to how bad this storm was. 

It looks like this may go down as the worst hurricane ever -- but it was a flooding event -- and insurance does not cover flooding. USAA getting claims from as far north as Ohio. USAA has gotten more claims in the first four days than they got from Ian and Michael. Many homeowners had no house insurance whatsoever. Once the mortgage is paid off -- and that's common in this area -- folks are not required have house insurance. Will add to the housing crisis already in place in the US. So far, not much action from the Biden administration or FEMA according to media I follow.

The port strike: no formal talks have been held since last June. There will be winners and losers. It will be interesting to follow UNP and BRK (proxy for Burlington Northern). UNP is up slightly today; BRK-B is down.

AAPL: not on my bingo card today -- AAPL up almost $4.00 today. 

WTI: negative overnight but as all-out war looks more likely in the Mideast, WTI is creeping up this morning.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.81.

Tuesday, October 1, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 518 for the year
40330, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-LW-156-94-0805H-1,
38260, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-6, Blue Buttes, BB-Olson Wells (Hess, Blue Buttes) and now, here, as of September,2023. Big wells.
37824, conf, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H,
37819, conf, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL,

Monday, September 30, 2024: 62 for the month; 190 for the quarter, 514 for the year
40238, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-LW-156-96-3427H-1, Beaver Lodge, oldest oil field in North Dakota.
37825, conf, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree, results somewhat disappointing.

RBN Energy: midstream consolidation in the DJ Basin. Not archived.

The Denver-Julesburg Basin isn’t the Permian — no argument there. But like its much bigger brother in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the DJ Basin has been a hotbed of M&A in both the upstream and midstream sectors. Among DJ producers, Chevron, Civitas Resources and Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) are now the top dogs, with big hopes for the future there. And, as we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, a handful of midstreamers have taken on leading roles in crude oil and gas gathering (and processing) in Weld County, CO, the heart of the basin.