Sunday, January 8, 2023

Shale Update -- NGI -- January 8, 2023

Link here. Archived.



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Another Head Fake Or For Real This Time? January 8, 2023

The market will tell us.

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Activity Among The Hess HA-Mogen Wells In Hawkeye Oil Field? January 8, 2023

The Hess HA-Mogen wells are tracked here. A number of wells in this area have recently come off line suggesting activity in the area. 

One example:

  • 20738, 1,496, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0805H-2, Hawkeye; t12/11; cum 675K 3/21; note -- 250K and not even a full year;  off line as of 1/19; back on line 2/19; no jump in production; cum 681K 9/21; cum 693K 7/22; cum 696K 10/22; off line 10/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202210334360174284628379
BAKKEN9-20223014381493638123951235639
BAKKEN8-2022311222126467012109121090
BAKKEN7-2022311588152775411493114930
BAKKEN6-2022302020198175810848108480
BAKKEN5-202211502492115234423440
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The 21st Century -- Energy -- America's Century -- Happy Birthday, Elvis -- January 8, 2023

Themes for 2023.

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Medicine: it's all about CRISPR, mRNA.

Information: it's all about semi-conductors, automation, robotics. 

From today, over at oilprice.com:


*********************
Happy Birthday, Elvis

Wow, wow, wow -- currently playing on TCM -- "Elvis On Tour (1972)" -- and where was it filmed?

In San Antonio.  At least that's where the documentary opens. I don't know if they spliced in segments from other venues for this documentary. I assume they did. Oh, yes ... now a studio recording session.

His birthday: January 8, 1935. 

Link here. And, here.

1972: I was a junior in college in Sioux Falls, SD.

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Polar Vortex? Déjà Vu All Over Again? January 8, 2023

Updates

January 12, 2023, link here: end of January.

January 11, 2023: polar vortex, update -- forecast -- January 27, 2023 -- 

Original Post 

Link here.

And here:

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 8, 2023

The wells:

  • 38412, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-2THU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202231203147
10-20221158711674
9-20221466015416
8-20221229712335
  • 27895, PNC-->drl, CLR, Jersey FIU 12-6H1, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 27894, PNC-->drl, CLR, Jersey FIU 11-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 38734, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20221303030860
10-20221482429015
9-20222288242262
8-20222830245923
7-20222122619738
  • 38013, conf, Petroshale, Thompson Federal 4TFH, Bear Den, no production data, 
  • 27893, PNC-->drl, CLR, Jersey FIU 10-6H2, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 38768, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 4-3-10H-143-95, Murphy Creek, no production data, 
  • 38195, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-LW-155-94-1423H-1, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20221668328148
10-20222216031344
9-20222620639639
8-20222703139901
7-20222973915872
  • 36892, conf, Petroshale, Bowie Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, no production data, 
  • 27892, conf, CLR, Jersey FU 9-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 39015, conf, Kraken, Feller 15-22 7H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 38767, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 3-3-10H-143-95; Murphy Creek, no production data,
  • 36891, conf, Petroshale, Carson Federal 21-19A, Bear Den, no production data, 
  • 36177, loc/drl, BR, George 2E MBH, Pershing, no production data, 
  • 27883, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 21-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 38735, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-156-94-1819H-2, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20221164623814
10-20221053519777
9-20221402627783
8-20222300144050
7-20222299623489
  • 37564, loc/drl, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12C-1-1HS, East Tioga, no production data,
  • 27882, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 20-6H2, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 27880, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 38530, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20221699618163
10-20221984218977
9-20222170618444
8-20221825711582
7-202260674258
  • 38196, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-7, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20221205518601
10-20221297018569
9-20221818123659
8-20221792228261
7-20222852227980
  • 37565, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-2H, East Tioga, no production data
  • 36179, conf, BR, George 2C MBH, Pershing, no production data, 
  • 27879, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 17-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 37566, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-1HS, East Tioga, no production data, 
  • 38197, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-6, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20221460428397
10-20222193534846
9-20222535842457
8-20222072116505
7-20224086910135
  • 36180, conf, BR, George 2B TFH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 38918, conf, Rampart Energy Company, Coteau 4, Wildcat, NESW 1-145-88, no data,
  • 36181, conf, BR, George 2A MBH, Pershing, no production data,
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 8, 2023

Wednesday, January 18, 2023:
38412, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-2THU,
27895, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 12-6H1,

Tuesday, January 17, 2023:
27894, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 11-6H,

Monday, January 16, 2023:
38734, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1,
38013, conf, Petroshale, Thompson Federal 4TFH,
27893, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 10-6H2,

Sunday, January 15, 2023:
38768, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 4-3-10H-143-95,
38195, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-LW-155-94-1423H-1,
36892, conf, Petroshale, Bowie Federal 3MBH,
27892, conf, CLR, Jersey FU 9-6H,

Saturday, January 14, 2023:
39015, conf, Kraken, Feller 15-22 7H,
38767, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Eleanor Twist 3-3-10H-143-95;

Friday, January 13, 2023:
36891, conf, Petroshale, Carson Federal 21-19A,
36177, conf, BR, George 2E MBH,
27883, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 21-6H,

Thursday, January 12, 2023:
38735, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-156-94-1819H-2,
37564, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12C-1-1HS,
27882, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 20-6H2,

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:
27880, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H,

Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
38530, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31-2H,
38196, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-7,
37565, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-2H,
36179, conf, BR, George 2C MBH,
27879, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 17-6H,

Monday, January 9, 2023:
37566, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-1HS,

Sunday, January 8, 2023:
38197, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-6,
36180, conf, BR, George 2B TFH,

Saturday, January 7, 2023:
38918, conf, Rampart Energy Company, Coteau 4,
36181, conf, BR, George 2A MBH,

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Anticipation -- Looking Forward To Baseball Season -- January 8, 2023

Link here.

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The "Reddit Stocks" To Buy In 2023 -- January 8, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Seven Reddit stocks to buy in 2023.

Reddit? GameStop and AMC Entertainment? LOL.

But I took a look. I almost stopped reading after seeing the stop two but then was surprised to see the full list.

Link here.

  • Tesla
  • Nio
  • Nvidia
  • TSM
  • Chevron
  • Eli Lilly
  • Lockheed Martin

Worth a read.

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Investing And Buybacks -- January 8, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Warren Buffett: likes buybacks. Motley Fool.

  • Since taking over as Berkshire Hathaway CEO in the mid-1960s, Buffett has outperformed the total return of the S&P 500 by a factor of 120. 
  • Over the past six years, Buffett's company has purchased a combined $54 billion worth of Apple and Chevron shares. 
  • However, the Oracle of Omaha has overseen more than $63 billion in purchases of another stock since mid-2018: his own company -- BRK-A.


Apple still at the top when it comes to buybacks, IBD.

Apple and Google parent-Alphabet led all U.S. companies in stock buybacks during the second quarter, though overall repurchases fell nearly 22% from the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, Microsoft and Facebook-parent Meta also placed among the top five in stock buybacks.
Overall, S&P 500 buybacks in second quarter were $219.6 billion, down 21.8% from the first quarter's record $281 billion.
One analyst] said some companies may be slowing buybacks to protect dividends.
He added: "The participation decline appears to be over economic concern — specifically forward profits." Information technology companies continued to lead the way in buybacks. Buybacks by financial companies fell 61% to $21.2 billion. Health Care buybacks decreased 58% to $17.2 billion. 

Elite legislators hate stock buybacks. Link here. They had proposed a 2%; compromise settled at 1%

Major corporations are scrambling to repurchase their own shares before a new tax on stock buybacks passed as part of Democrats’ major spending bill over the summer goes into effect, an effort that may sap one of the bill’s main sources of revenue.

Buybacks were illegal until 1982 and have long been blasted by critics as a legal form of market manipulation and a way for executives to pay themselves more.

“I hate stock buybacks,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in August upon striking a deal with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W Va.) that would become the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

The IRA, signed into law by President Biden, enacted the 1-percent buyback tax after an initial proposal to tax the personal income of hedge fund managers was blocked by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

“I think [buybacks] are one of the most self-serving things that corporate America does,” Schumer said. “Instead of investing in workers and in training and in research and in equipment, they simply – they don’t do a thing to make their company better, and they artificially raise the stock price by just reducing the number of shares. They’re despicable. I’d like to abolish them.”

[Similar to releasing oil from the SPR to affect oil prices ahead of a national election. But let's not go there.]

Major U.S. corporations, including T-Mobile US Inc., Johnson & Johnson and Comcast announced new buyback initiatives in September ahead of the December 31, 2022, effective date of the IRA’s new tax.

T-Mobile’s board authorized a repurchase program for $14 billion of the company’s common stock on Sept. 8 that would extend through 2023.  

Comcast also announced in mid-September that its board “increased its share repurchase program authorization to a total of $20.0 billion, effective as of September 13, 2022.” 

Johnson & Johnson announced its own $5 billion stock buyback initiative in September.

Much more at the link.

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Estate Planning: A Couple's Exclusion: $26 Million -- January 8, 2023

The other day, a post on retirement planning when spouse dies.


Today, the federal "death tax" exclusion.

  • IRS bumps up the exclusion:
    • $12.92 million
    • in the small print: that's for an individual
    • for a couple: almost $26 million
  • annual tax-free gift (per recipient): $17,000 (up from $16,000) 
  • link here.

But there's more, link here. Archived.

The Bloomberg article began: 

On the Chinese lunar calendar, 2021 was the Year of the Ox, but for many in the estate planning world, it was the “Year of the Exclusion.”
Due to concerns that Congress might reduce the gift and estate tax exclusion, perhaps retroactively, from $11.7 million to something much lower, estate planners encouraged their wealthiest clients to make large gifts in 2021, and many followed that advice.
As the year evolved, Congress withdrew proposals to reduce the exclusion, and some clients who were on the fence held off on making big gifts in 2021.
Today, it appears that the exclusion amount—now a lofty, inflation-indexed $12.06 million—may remain intact until 2026, when it is scheduled to be halved.

Seriously, did anyone really believe that Congress would cut the "death tax" exclusion?

LOL.

With Pelosi in charge? I can't believe folks fall for this stuff.  

And seriously, does anyone really believe Congress will cut the exclusion in half in 2026? LOL. 

If it is cut, the cut will be inconsequential.

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Pet Peeve: Folks Who Don't Do Basic Research -- Simply Repeat The Memes -- January 8, 2023

Updates

Later, 10: 53 p.m. CT: Finland, link here.

Original Post

Metal bands and happy countries: link here.

Suicide rates by country, 2023: link here. Also, at wiki. (Sources vary slightly.)

Countries with the Highest Suicide Rates 

In 2019, the ten countries with the highest suicide rates (number of suicides per 100k) were:

  1. Lesotho - 72.4
  2. Guyana - 40.3
  3. Eswatini - 29.4
  4. South Korea - 28.6
  5. Kiribati - 28.3
  6. Federated States of Micronesia - 28.2
  7. Lithuania - 26.1
  8. Suriname - 25.4
  9. Russia - 25.1
  10. South Africa - 23.5. 

The only western European nation with an exceptionally high suicide rate is Belgium, which ranks at number eleven with 18.3 suicides per 100k. 

However, it is worth noting that Belgium has some of the world's most liberal laws on doctor-assisted suicide, also known as euthanasia, which is likely to be a factor in its statistics. 

Countries with the Lowest Suicide Rates 

Perhaps surprisingly, many of the most troubled nations in the world have comparatively low suicide rates.

  • Afghanistan has 4.1 suicides per 100k;
  • Iraq has 3.6, and Syria has just 2.0. 

It is not clear if the suicide statistics for these countries reflect suicides committed due to mental health problems and terminal illnesses (which are the primary reasons for suicide in most of the world) or include suicides committed as part of the ongoing conflicts in these countries. 

The world's lowest suicide rates are in the following countries:

  • Antigua and Barbuda - 0.4
  • Barbados - 0.6
  • Grenada - 0.7
  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - 1.0
  • Sao Tome and Principe - 1.5
  • Jordan - 1.6
  • Syria - 2.0
  • Venezuela - 2.1
  • Honduras - 2.1
  • Philippines - 2.2

Suicide in Sweden 

In 2019, Sweden had 14.7 suicides per 100,000 people.
Historically, Sweden has had a high suicide rate, with the most suicides in the developed world during the 1960s.
That may have been due, at least in part, to cultural attitudes regarding suicide and long, dark winters, particularly in the northern regions
The government responded to the crisis with social welfare and mental health services, and the numbers have dropped dramatically.
Today, Scandinavian countries – Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland – have very high happiness rates and relatively low suicide rates.
However, the dark winters – 20 hours of darkness or more in each day in some areas – causes seasonal affective disorder (SAD), a form of depression, which has been known to correlate with higher rates of suicide.
Euthanasia, or physician-assisted suicide, is still illegal in Sweden but is accepted in some instances. A physician may not administer lethal drugs to a terminally ill patient, but he or she may end life support of the patient requests doing so and demonstrates that they understand the consequences. This form of physician-assisted suicide, known as passive euthanasia, is not included in suicide statistics. Active euthanasia, when a physician administers lethal drugs to a terminally ill patient with the patient and family's consent, may soon become legal in Sweden, as it is becoming more accepted in European countries.

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Energy -- January 8, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

I only see the world through oily-stained glasses so my views are extremely biased. Let me repeat:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Two takeaways from the stories below:

  • energy is the story and the investing story of the 21st century
  • North America, and specifically, America is the energy story of the 21st century

For investors like me with a 30-year horizon, energy is the foundation of one's investment portfolio.

Among Big Oil, Chevron seems to be making all the headlines right now. It's a favorite of Warren Buffet's. 

It's less expensive to "buy" a pipeline than "build" a pipeline.

Wind and solar get all the mainstream attention, but that's not where mom-and-pop investors are going to make money.

***********************
Phillips 66 -- DCP Midstream

Phillips 66 acquires all of the publicly held common units representing DCP Midstream: $3.8 billion.

In combination with the 2022 realignment of Phillips 66’s economic and governance interests in DCP Midstream, the transaction is expected to generate an incremental $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA for Phillips 66, the company said (OGJ Online, Aug. 18, 2022). The company also expects to capture operational and commercial synergies of at least $300 million by integrating DCP Midstream into its existing midstream business.
Fitzsimmons:

  • PSX announced an agreement Friday to buy the remaining publicly held LP units in DCP Midstream for $41.75 each, raising Phillips 66's stake in DCP to 86.8%.
  • The remaining economic interests in DCP are held by Enbridge, which owns 13.2% of the MLP's General Partner.
  • PSX expects the acquisition will generate $1 billion of incremental adjusted EBITDA with an additional $300 million of synergies by integrating DCP's assets into PSX's Midstream Segment.
  • With a forward P/E of only 5.4x, a current yield of 3.7%, and prospects for another summer of tight refined product markets, PSX is significantly undervalued here.

InvestorPlace: DCP stock pops. 

Still, it looks like a win-win situation. The deal with DCP Midstream is anticipated to generate an incremental $1 billion worth of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for Phillips 66. Moreover, it will help Phillips 66 delve deeper into the NGL industry. 

***********************
Chevron-Phillips Chem

Chevron-Phillips Chem -- QatarEnergy: to construct complex in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar; 

Orange, TX:

Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC and QatarEnergy announced today that they are proceeding with the construction of an $8.5 billion integrated polymers facility in Orange, Texas, expected to create more than 500 full-time jobs and approximately 4,500 construction jobs and generate an estimated $50 billion for the community in residual economic impacts. 

The companies have made a positive final investment decision on the project and created a joint venture company, Golden Triangle Polymers Company LLC, named for the Golden Triangle region of Texas that includes the city of Orange. Chevron Phillips Chemical owns a 51% equity share in the joint venture and QatarEnergy owns 49%.

Orange is a city and the county seat of Orange County, Texas, United States.[5] As of the 2020 census, the city population was 19,324. It is the easternmost city in Texas, located on the Sabine River at the border with Louisiana, and is 113 miles (182 km) from Houston. Orange is part of the Beaumont−Port Arthur Metropolitan Statistical Area. Founded in 1836, it is a deep-water port to the Gulf of Mexico. 

************************
LNG

Energy? LNG is king

Link here.


**********************
Investors

Link here.

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SDSU Taking Care Of Business -- Teaching NDSU How Championship Games Are Played -- January 8, 2023

Early in third quarter, 38 - 14. The game is over. There's a new champion in the house.

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The Dreaded Bakken Decline -- January 8, 2023

The well:

  • 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, Van Hook, t1/11; cum 608K 3/21; off line 11/19; back on line; see this post; only six days in each 4/20 and 5/20; remains off line 9/21; cum 614K 9/21; off line much of 2021; back on line 2/22; a big well; cum 660K 10/22; production over the past four years, drilled over a decade ago:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20222937903011355429442181617
BAKKEN10-2022304317439736143180301018
BAKKEN9-2022305356554343453454329113
BAKKEN8-202231621159085465341121891068
BAKKEN7-20222959056110588433452202998
BAKKEN6-20223057566016680232172143924
BAKKEN5-202231737871337798390211022645
BAKKEN4-202226606861826112323914281683
BAKKEN3-20221730373017415416203701164
BAKKEN2-202261400149442797180689
BAKKEN1-20222642073693300322
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20213116962691661490
BAKKEN4-2021305066516324382988277466
BAKKEN3-20213157926655275934533116182
BAKKEN2-20212856735727281231032858105
BAKKEN1-20213064216945310036363180307
BAKKEN12-20203165445145363437322841736
BAKKEN11-202030631569833748392437722
BAKKEN10-2020306780628740204372412695
BAKKEN9-202030697073064005433141801
BAKKEN8-2020245165396123733112290784
BAKKEN7-2020224133322442113
BAKKEN6-20201380034280
BAKKEN5-2020612450157664322312
BAKKEN4-20206109318184707126820
BAKKEN3-20203156585834438334222853414
BAKKEN2-202029584055476914356817071716
BAKKEN1-20202240994119729126921779375
BAKKEN12-201973560287432022156301172
BAKKEN11-2019143530500
BAKKEN10-20192315661760668113682926
BAKKEN9-201930203118237121473109314
BAKKEN8-201931206622328461598119922
BAKKEN7-201931205221187771629119260
BAKKEN6-201930197416697971395788245
BAKKEN5-201930133017025219997070
BAKKEN4-2019301672205765312028750
BAKKEN3-20193120982140695154511617
BAKKEN2-201928232314618281703129226
BAKKEN1-20193119802818727153411720
BAKKEN12-201831246719948141854140829
BAKKEN11-2018304599522914404001333331
BAKKEN10-2018314565433814613518278297
BAKKEN9-20182939754498126328371850415
BAKKEN8-20183145624415142731612317197
BAKKEN7-20183142753189148429012152134
BAKKEN6-201822206218588501435108616
BAKKEN5-2018315556841117850
BAKKEN4-2018303877384912052714212130
BAKKEN3-20183030372831110719991155370
BAKKEN2-201824950146333968139553
BAKKEN1-20183122712098817165312600
BAKKEN12-201731253825798631913141674
BAKKEN11-20173041613880137129842082305
BAKKEN10-20173145994659144733392542153
BAKKEN9-20173039024122129925921054965

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