Week 40: September 28, 2014 -- October 4, 2014

Big Story Of The Month?
New Madison field in the Williston Basin, North Dakota?

Operations
Petro-Hunt reports a nice TF2 well
Random update of a very busy section of Baker oil field
Magnum Hunts sells non-core assets in Divide County
Update on Zavanna wells east of Williston
Update on SHD
SHD reports a huge well in Clarks Creek
Number of active rigs down to 186 from recent high of 200
Wells on confidential status, by operator
Random update of a Whiting re-entry well, Red River, Henry oil field
Random update of a relatively recent Madison well
Random update on three CLR using high proppant volume, increased number of stages, the Bonney wells
CLR's Bakken enhanced completion tests

Hearing Dockets
October, 2014, agenda, highlights
October, 2014, agenda

Flaring
North Dakota oil production likely to fall with new flaring rules

Pipeline
Enbridge eyes mainline expansion

CBR
Update on BNSF in Montana

Bakken 101
The meaning of "LL"
Why are not all Bakken wells put on confidential list?

Miscellaneous
WTI may drop below $90/bbl

Random Update On CLR's Lawrence Wells In North Tioga Oil Field, October 3, 2014

Over at the discussion board, a reader asked about these wells:

• 26873, A, CLR, Lawrence 7-24H2, North Tioga, s12/13; 3 days of production in August, 2014: 552 bbls
• 26874, drl, CLR, Lawrence 11-24H1, North Tioga, s11/13; 0 days in August, 2014
• 26875, drl, CLR, Lawrence 10-24H2, North Tioga, s11/13; 0 days in August, 2014
• 26876, 292, CLR, Lawrence 9-24H, North Tioga, s11/13; 1 day of production in August, 2014: 160 bbls
• 26877, A, CLR, Lawrence 8-24H3, North Tioga, s11/13; 1 day of production in August, 2014: 123 bbls;
• 26880, A, CLR, Lawrence 6-24H1, North Tioga, s12/13;; 4 days of production in August, 2014: 1,084 bbls

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New Apple Product Announcements

Macrumors reports:

Apple is planning to hold its next fall event on Thursday, October 16, where it is expected to introduce new iPads, reports Re/code. The company is also expected to introduce new Retina iMacs and release OS X Yosemite to the public.

According to Re/code, Apple's iPad event will be more low-key than its September iPhone event, and it will be held at the company's Town Hall Auditorium. The company's iPhone event, which saw the introduction of the iPhone 6, 6 Plus, Apple Watch, and Apple Pay, was held at the Flint Center, where the original Mac was unveiled 30 years ago. 

Charbonneau Oil Field -- Williston Basin, North Dakota

Updates

Permits

2014 (list is complete)

• 29595, conf, Emerald Oil, Mongoose 3-8-5H,
• 29594, conf, Emerald Oil, Arsenal Federal 4-17-20H,
• 29593, conf, Emerald Oil, Mongoose 4-8-5H,
• 29592, conf, Emerald Oil, Mongoose 5-8-5H,
• 29591, conf, Emerald Oil, Arsenal Federal 5-17-20H,
• 28832, loc, Emerald  Oil, Mongoose 6-8-5H,
• 28831, loc, Emerald  Oil, Arsenal Federal 6-17-20H,
• 28830, loc, Emerald  Oil, Mongoose 7-8-5H,
• 28829, loc, Emerald  Oil, Arsenal Federal 7-17-20H,
• 27363, 844, Emerald  Oil, Talon 6-9-4H, t1/15; cum --
• 27362, 661, Emerald  Oil, Slugger 6-16-21H, t12/14; cum 4K 12/14;
• 27361, 855, Emerald  Oil, Talon 7-9-4H, t12/14; cum 2K 12/14;
• 27360, 1,114, Emerald  Oil, Slugger 7-16-21H, t12/14; cum 10K 12/14;

2013

• 27266, conf, Emerald Oil, Talon 3-9-4H, producing as of 9/14;
• 27265, conf, Emerald Oil, Slugger 3-16-21H, producing as of 9/14;
• 27264, loc, Emerald  Oil, Talon 4-9-4H,
• 27263, loc, Emerald  Oil, Slugger 4-16-21H,
• 27262, 1,421, Emerald  Oil, Talon 5-9-4H, t12/14; cum 16K 12/14;
• 27261, 1,204, Emerald  Oil, Slugger 5-16-21H, t12/14; cum 11K 12/14;

2012
None

2011
None

2010

• 19869, 878, Slawson, Crossbow 10706H, t12/11; cum 84K 12/14;
• 19863, 1,190, Emerald Oil/Slawson, Mongoose 1-8-5H; gas ranged from 800 to 1200 units; 34 stages; 3.91 million lbs sand, t6/13; Slawson had the original permit; drilled by Emerald Oil; cum 121K 12/14; off line November/December, 2014; possibly some commingling work;

Trivia

Slawson took their names from "League of Nations."

Original Post

Charbonneau oil field is a non-descript little field in McKenzie county, on the far west side, away from the sweet spots around Watford City. It's a rectangular field, twelve sections, 3 x 4; its western border is less than twelve (12) miles from the Montana state line. It's about five miles southwest of the curve in US 85 on the south side of Alexander.

Nineteen (19) New Permits -- October 3, 2014

Active rigs:

	10/3/2014	10/03/2013	10/03/2012	10/03/2011	10/03/2010
Active Rigs	189	185	188	199	143

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Nineteen (19) new permits --

• Operators: Emerald Oil (5), EOG (3), XTO (3), Marathon (2),  Hess (2), BR, OXY USA, Crescent Point, Mountain Divide
  Fields: Charbonneau (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail), Manitou (Mountrail), Siverston (McKenzie), Bailey (Dunn), Manning (Dunn), Haystack Butte (McKenzie), Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Little Muddy (Williams), West Ambrose (Divide)
• Comments:

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The Real "Boomtown"

Yahoo!Finance is reporting these two families saved by the Bakken:

Mitzi Bestall and her husband Bill Murphy are realtors who made the move to North Dakota in 2010 thanks to a struggling housing market in Colorado.

“We only did eight homes that year, came back the next year as 'Bakken Realty' and we did approximately $10 million in sales that year,” Mitzi told Yahoo Finance when we visited Bakken Realty’s offices in Williston, North Dakota.

For the first year in their adopted hometown, Mitzi and Bill lived in an RV park. Mitzi was the only woman in the complex, and the one bathroom that everyone in the park shared was a port-o-potty.

“The first year, we made about $8,000 up here,” Bill says. “But it was a great education and it’s more than we would have made in Colorado.”

It's rewarding to read that story. You have no idea how many folks write me, telling me that the Bakken was a "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity. 

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The Real Entrepreneurs

KXNet is reporting:

Mark Wald and his wife Maria formed Blaise Energy in 2008.

They became the first company in North America to generate electricity from recycled natural gas using generators like this one.

But there was still natural gas being flared.

So Mark began to experiment with transportation.

"There is a lot of discussion and it all makes sense between rail and pipeline, lets get all these resources out of state into the market.  We tried to focus on how do we use it right here?  How do we put it to use right here in North Dakota"

Using a carbon fiber tank, he found a way for his truck to run on Compressed Natural Gas.

Gas that otherwise would be flared into the atmosphere.

When running on CNG, this truck runs cleaner...

Blaise Energy corporate office is in Bismarck, North Dakota. Their website: http://www.blaiseenergy.com/company.html

California Energy

This is simply some housekeeping.

Updates

January 2, 2015: look west; long review; if there is a future for Bakken CBR to California

October 7, 2014:  only 1% of California's crude oil supply moves by rail; there are no crude oil pipelines running into the state; and, Alaskan supplies are dwindling.

At the end of the day, adult leadership will be needed. If not, California is in a world of hurt.

October 4, 2014: something to return to in 2018 --

Compounding the loss of SONGS is the impending closure of up to 5,068 megawatts of gas-fired plants in the local area that rely on once-through cooling using seawater. These plants must comply with water regulations that practically eliminate the use of seawater for cooling by 2017 to 2020.

Original Post

 

I originally posted this October 22, 2013:

RBN Energy: California natural gas demand in the state's post-nuclear era.

The June 2013 decision by Southern California Edison (SCE) to permanently shut down its San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS)—the largest power generator in the region—got the attention of the natural gas industry, and for good reason.  Natural gas interests view gas-fired generation as the logical replacement for the now-gone 2,200 MW nuclear capacity, but many other forces are at work. In this two-part series we examine southern California’s electricity cunundrum, and how big a part natural gas is likely to play in keeping the lights and air conditioning on and the pool pumps pumping.

The two-unit, 2,200-MW SONGS facility for years was a linchpin in the region’s electric grid. A relatively low-cost, around-the-clock generator at a pivotal location, San Onofre provided critical voltage support—an electrical engineer’s way of saying it kept the grid on an even keel. Natural gas interests expect SONGS capacity to be replaced by gas fired generation. And gas will surely have a significant role in the electricity future of the Los Angeles Basin, San Diego, and California as a whole. But because of state policies and Federal rules, among other things, utilities and merchant power companies may well end up consuming less gas than they do now, and commercial and industrial firms may use more.

XTO Reports A "High IP" Well -- October 3, 2014

27449, 2,550, XTO, Tuckerman Federal 11X-11A, Lost Bridge, t8/14; cum 10K 7/14;

I track the Lost Bridge oil field here but haven't updated it in quite some time. I may do that today.

Lost Bridge is going to have some huge wells. For example:

• 27556, 3,511, XTO, Kaye Federal 43X-4B, t7/14; cum 41K 7/14; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	25817	25384	8581	31682	0	31623
BAKKEN	7-2014	14	15551	15180	8376	18626	0	18601

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Apple Lines Forever
Size Matters

  

For the past two weeks I've been riding my bicycle past the local Apple retail store almost every day with hopes of being able to walk in and simply look at the new iPhones. I won't stand in line. I thought perhaps today, finally, there might not be any line. I was wrong: a line of about 15 people were waiting outside the door. The store itself did not look all that busy inside so I assume they were "triaging" at the door. The fact that the lines are still there, and now that Apple is selling the new iPhones in China, my hunch is the local retail Apple stores have some inventory on hand. 

Macrumors is reporting:

The iPhone 6 Plus is expected to account for 60% of total iPhone 6 device shipments as sales of the device are exceeding initial expectations, reports Digitimes. The information comes from industry sources observing parts shipments to longtime Apple suppliers Foxconn and Pegatron.

I would have thought the "6" would have been too big. But the other day I was able to hold the iPhone 6 -- I happened to be in a Target store where they had the "6" on display (but not the 6 Plus). I was quite positively impressed. Next to the iPhone 6, the iPhone 5s looked old and clunky. The iPhone 6 was sleek, slick, and not a bit too big. It doesn't feel bigger than the 5s because it's very, very slim, and rounded edges all around. I also thought the touchscreen on the iPhone 6 was so much more responsive than the iPhone 5s. I don't plan on ever buying a smart phone but after seeign the iPhone 6, it's hard not to buy one. They really are incredible. 

Unemployment Rate Drops Below 6% For First Time In Six Years; Employers Add 284,000 Jobs -- October 3, 2014

Updates

October 4, 2014: on further review -- oh, oh. 
 

Original Report

This is a huge jobs report. Investors need to read a recent article on what this means for the Fed.
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The bigger story in today's unemployment rate is the number of new jobs added: 284,000. Remember, the "magic number" is 200,000.

This is a huge report; first time in six years the rate has dropped below 6.0%.

How do we get to 5.9%? Easy: remove 93 million people from the labor force.

While by now everyone should know the answer, for those curious why the US unemployment rate just slid once more to a meager 5.9%, the lowest print since the summer of 2008, the answer is the same one we have shown every month since 2010: the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slid from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% - the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows.

And while according to the Household Survey, 232,000 people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million!

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Ebola And Crude Oil

US imports from Nigeria:

• July, 2014: 2 million bbls
• June, 2014: 3.5 million bbls
• May, 2014: 3.7 million bbls
• April, 2014: 5.6 million bbls
• March, 2014: 3.5 million bbls
• Feb, 2014: 1.6 million bbls

US imports from Angola:

• July, 2014: 5 million bbls
• June, 2014: 5 million bbls
• May, 2014: 5.5 million bbls
• April, 2014: 3.5 million bbls
• March, 2014: 3.6 million bbls
• Feb, 2014: 3.2 million bbls

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Active Rigs:

	10/3/2014	10/03/2013	10/03/2012	10/03/2011	10/03/2010
Active Rigs	188	185	188	199	143

RBN Energy: this is another very good article. I think it's a must-read for those interested in the Bakken to better understand what's happening on the West Coast.

During the last week of September, reports surfaced that Alaskan oil producer ConocoPhillips (COP) has recently exported an 800 MBbl cargo of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude to South Korea. This is the first such export since 2006 and marks a new development in the evolving debate over US crude oil exports that are heavily restricted by regulations that date back to the 1970’s. Today we look at the fundamentals behind COP’s export shipment.

ANS crude – a medium sour grade with 31.5 degrees API gravity and about 1 percent sulfur - is produced from the Prudhoe Bay field on the northern coast of Alaska beside the Beaufort Sea. Production started in 1977 after the Mid-East oil crisis raised crude prices enough to justify construction of an $8B pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez marine terminal. From there ANS is shipped to refineries in Washington State and California by a dedicated fleet of 11 “Jones Act” tankers. We have previously documented the decline in ANS crude production (according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) from its heyday 2MMb/d in the 1980’s to 515 Mb/d in 2013. So far this year average ANS production is down to 505 Mb/d according to daily tallies from the Alaska Department of Revenue.

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I've Never Understood This Issue

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:

Nearly two-thirds of abortion clinics in Texas must close immediately after a federal appeals court ruled Thursday that the state could enforce its law requiring those facilities to be built to the same stringent standards as hospitals.

The requirement is part of a sweeping piece of legislation called House Bill 2, which includes several measures that undermine women’s access to abortion. The mandate was struck down in late August by a federal judge in Austin, who ruled that it was unconstitutional because it put an undue burden on women seeking healthcare. He put the requirement on hold while the state appealed.

But on Thursday, a three-judge panel of the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals tossed out U.S. District Court Judge Lee Yeakel’s injunction, which allowed Texas’ estimated 20 abortion clinics to continue operating during the appeals process. Without that injunction, only seven or eight clinics will remain in business.

The New Orleans-based 5th Circuit said the central question it considered was “whether the state has shown a likelihood of success” in fighting Yeakel’s ruling “regarding whether the ambulatory surgical center provision is unconstitutional. We conclude that it has.” The panel repeatedly criticized Yeakel’s decision as “unclear” and “confusing.”

The law requires, among other things, that physicians providing this service have admitting privileges at a hospital in case complications arise. I assume that arrangements could be made for physicians who do not have such privileges, that they could arrange for back-up from a surgeon who has such privileges. For me, this is all about the dictum, "First, do no harm." 

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ObamaCare

The other day I posted the link regarding the huge win for states' rights. I knew it was a big win, but I didn't know this little data point:

Tuesday's decision is the latest in a wave of court losses for Obamacare.

Currently, over a hundred lawsuits have been filed against Obamacare - and Obamacare has lost 91% of the cases decided to-date, (71 losses out of 78 decisions).

I think that's why we're not hearing much from the GOP/Tea Party on ObamaCare. It's the law; both parties are parties of law, and now it's playing out in the courts as it should.

Generally speaking, court cases take precedence into account. In fact, I believe British common law is based almost 100% on precedence, at least at one time. I think I read that in How The Scots Invented The Modern World, The True Story of How Western Europe's Poorest Nation Created Our World & Everything In It, Arthur Herman, c. 2002, perhaps one of the best books I've ever read. I've read it twice; I need to read it again.

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The ISIS Beheadings

I see there's another one over at the Drudge Report and then there's a link (which I did not visit) suggesting (or implying) that the next beheading will be a "US veteran."
 
There have been many comparisons of President Obama's administration with the waning days of the President Carter administration.

Right, wrong, or indifferent, the "ISIS beheadings" are starting to take on the "feel" of the Iranian hostage situation, at least for a few of us.