Sunday, October 2, 2022

Peak Oil Demand -- October 2, 2022

Stephen Covey's seven habits ...
  • fifth habit, for me, the most important, seek first to understand

Alex Kimani: the biggest argument for "peak oil" -- peak oil demand --

  • BP’s peak oil demand prediction in 2020 turned out to be wrong. 
  • a relatively large number of forecasts don’t see peak oil happening within the next few decades.
  • advancements in ICE engines and increased fuel efficiency have had a serious impact on fuel consumption. 

"Everyone" of us thought the EIA was manipulating the numbers. Maybe they were. But in the big scheme of things, gasoline demand is down even as Americans are driving more.

Now it makes sense.

I now get it.

And it has nothing to do with EVs, regardless of what some folks think.

Stephen Covey: seek first to understand. 

**************************
For The Archives

Early in my USAF career, it just so happened that the USAF had "bought" the Stephen Covey program and all officers had to enroll. I don't recall whether senior enlisted were also required to attend but with programs like this, the USAF often required senior enlisted to also take such training and education courses.

I vividly remember the seven habits but didn't pay much attention.

It was several years later that a major came into my office -- I was commander of the largest USAF medical facility in Turkey at the time -- with a request or an idea.  

He was an officer who had probably been promoted two grades higher than his potential and should have been separated years earlier. 

When I "cut him short," he reminded me of Covey's fifth habit: "seek first to understand."

That was a life-altering event for me.

Sunday Night Ramblings -- October 2, 2022

From yesterday:

Oklahoma today: gonna drop out of the top 25. Just saying.

College football:

  • projected rankings: link here. Georgia Bulldogs projected to remain at #1. That was not going to happen.
  • actual rankings: link here. Fantastic. Alabama back on top.

CCR

********************************
Back to Geopolitics

Ukraine: pay attention to Peter Zeihan's analysis, and USAF B-52's.

Saudi Arabia: it's not just about price. Saudi is looking at spare capacity three months out --

  • Russia output to drop
  • SPR release to end
  • China will open (perhaps as soon as this month)

Hey, what about air travel?

  • July, 2022, was the second-busiest month in the history of DFW (Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas)
  • not just "July," but any month
  • 6.9 million passengers in that one month
  • wow
  • link here

And then look at this, George Bush airport, Sunday night. Link here.

*************************
Target vs Walmart

For the longest time, I've only shopped for groceries at Target because it was so convenient, just two minutes away by bike, and had the least expensive prices in the local area. But recently, I've been going to Walmart. I now prefer Walmart to Target. 

The checkout lines at Target are way too slow; I always find myself waiting in line even for one or two items. Walmart has many more self check-out kiosks than Target. Never any waiting, and both stores incredibly busy. 

Prices: always better at Walmart. Always better. Quite amazing. And sometimes remarkably less expensive. 

But most interesting Walmart seems to have everything. Pickled herring? Can't find it at Target, but available at Walmart. Braunschweiger? Can't find it at Target, but Walmart has it. Neither has anchovies but I can order it through Amazon.

*************************
Tonight's Dinner

Sunday night football: dinner -- wine and anchovies.

The wine was a gift from our son-in-law and was exquisite, although I can't compare it to any other wine since I haven't had a glass of wine in more than two years. 

But the anchovies are just too "strong." They need something stronger than a mellow red wine. 

So, I put the wine back and grabbed a beer, the first beer I've also had in weeks. Wonderful. And now, NFL SNF.


***********************
Soccer

One of our three granddaughters is a high school junior. Olivia lives and breathes soccer and plays for her high school soccer team (second in state [Texas] last year) and for FC Dallas (club soccer).

She had a club game today but was feeling ill and did not know if she could "make" the game.
She told her coach she could not come an hour early as required for game preparation but she would try to get to the game at "start" time.

Late this evening, I learned from her mom (our daughter), Olivia was the only player on either team to score a goal. LOL.

Olivia's team won, 1 - 0.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 2, 2022

The wells:

  • 38811, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 3-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH, Winner, no production data, 
  • 38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data, 
  • 38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221496017819
6-20221622814904
5-20222243537279
4-20222787824117
  • 38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data, 
  • 38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221517815280
6-202211061317
5-20221407716026
4-2022217777192
  • 37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20221260416190
7-20221270719153
6-20221415818595
5-20221199812027
  • 38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 38820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 5-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH, Winner, no production data, 
  • 36991, conf, Enerplus, Minnow 149-94-36C-25H, Squaw Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20222328022524
6-20223304637148
5-202241201672
4-20223908234377
  • 35626, conf, Bowline, Lee 151-101-8-5-4H, Ragged Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20222339531779
7-20222501229328
6-20222502428398
5-20223449833251
4-2022137998189
  • 38807, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 5-13-24-158NN-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data, 
  • 38806, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 6-12-1-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data, 
  • 36990, conf, Enerplus, Moray 149-94-36C-25H-TF, Squaw Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20222169124227
6-20222098723592
5-202234512563
4-20222880334116
  • 35625, conf, Bowline, Lee 151-101-8-5-13H, Ragged Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20222626932594
7-20222808829522
6-20222947033827
5-20223303931437
4-20221766710402
  • 38805, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 6-13-24-158N-100W-MBH-LL, Winner, no production data, 
  • 36989, conf, Enerplus, Shad 149-94-36C-25H, Squaw Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20223077737139
6-20222742330827
5-202230854503
4-20222353520702
  • 32123, conf, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15-3XH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20221582216384
7-20221758618532
6-20221959817932
5-20222241115526
  • 29791, conf, Hunt Oil, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-3, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2022108273134
7-2022144004345
6-202256321819
  • 36988, conf, Enerplus, Bluegill 149-94-36C-25H-TF, Squaw Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20222540927267
6-20221121212604
5-20221427114903
4-20223426930144
  • 30922, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9 MBH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 29792, conf, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-2-31H 5, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2022154984349
7-202270692954
  • 38715, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-15H, Pembroke, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 2, 2022

Wednesday, October 12, 2022 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year
None.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year
38811, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 3-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH,  

Monday, October 10, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 466 for the year
38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2,

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 464 for the year
38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1,
37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H,

Saturday, October 8, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 461 for the year
38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,

Friday, October 7, 2022: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 460 for the year
38820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 5-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH,
36991, conf, Enerplus, Minnow 149-94-36C-25H,
35626, conf, Bowline Lee 151-101-8-5-4H,

Thursday, October 6, 2022: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 457 for the year
38807, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 5-13-24-158NN-100W-MBH,

Wednesday, October 5, 2022: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 456 for the year
38806, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 6-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
36990, conf, Enerplus, Moray 149-94-36C-25H-TF,
35625, conf, Bowline, Lee 151-101-8-5-13H,

Tuesday, October 4, 2022: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 453 for the year
38805, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 6-13-24-158N-100W-MBH-LL,
36989, conf, Enerplus, Shad 149-94-36C-25H,
32123, conf, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15-3XH,

Monday, October 3, 2022: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 450 for the year
29791, conf, Hunt Oil, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-3,

Sunday, October 2, 2022: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 449 for the year
36988, conf, Enerplus, Bluegill 149-94-36C-25H-TF,
30922, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9 MBH,
29792, conf, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-2-31H 5,

Saturday, October 1, 2022
: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 446 for the year
38715, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-15H, 

An Old Whiting Tarpon Federal Well Is Back On Line -- October 2, 2022

The well:

  • 22360, 1,394, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-1H, t12/12; cum 260K 91/9; on a pump; cum 265K 11/21; back on line, cum 265K 8/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20222311060656025560
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-202200180000
BAKKEN12-20217277491751610
BAKKEN11-202130142150357927320
BAKKEN10-202131164152347797170
BAKKEN9-202130133124276295740
BAKKEN8-20213110896156696690
BAKKEN7-20213113013915905819
BAKKEN6-202130160224407517510
BAKKEN5-202131335312739609600
BAKKEN4-202130347294558658650
BAKKEN3-202117133137214414070
BAKKEN2-202128208226649058490

A Whiting Flatland Federal Well Drilled Back In 2014 Just Went Over 700K Bbls Crude Oil Cummulative -- October 2, 2022

The Flatland Federal wells are tracked here

The well:

  • 27520, 6,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFH, TF1, Twin Valley, up to 9,900 gas units; 97 stages; 4.2 million lbs sand/ceramic; t10/14; cum 691K 9/21; cum 702K 7/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20223195293929915276152070
BAKKEN7-20223194492130116139160740
BAKKEN6-2022301468152446418436183680
BAKKEN5-2022311662162248219809197330
BAKKEN4-2022291544156435116110160470
BAKKEN3-202225990101525310482104160
BAKKEN2-202217716640135703669700
BAKKEN1-202224781707184738273360
BAKKEN12-2021925924261254025250
BAKKEN11-2021310226038105310470
BAKKEN10-202131790734395781377200

Softshell Update -- Back On Track -- October 12, 2022

This is nice to see.

Current note:

27587,2,188, Softshell 152-94-33C-28H TF, 1280 acres, 39 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t11/14; cum 826K 1/21; plus 333,000 boe natural gas 11/18; no explanation why this well is reporting only one day of production each month since 10/19; in 11/19, 6,300 bbls on one day, doesn't make sense; starting 11/20, back to full months (30 - 31 days); cum 857K 9/21;

Today, October 2, 2022, I see Enerplus is reporting production for the full month since November 2020. Prior to that, just one day each month; didn't make sense.

Computer glitch or something else? No longer matters. 

Updated note:

27587,2,188, Softshell 152-94-33C-28H TF, 1280 acres, 39 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t11/14; cum 826K 1/21; plus 333,000 boe natural gas 11/18; no explanation why this well is reporting only one day of production each month since 10/19; in 11/19, 6,300 bbls on one day, doesn't make sense; starting 11/20, back to full months (30 - 31 days); cum 857K 9/21; back to reporting full months; cum 887K 7/22;

Recent:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-202227251425311091570026282711
SANISH6-202230308827911333641531182851
SANISH5-202212141013421092674615774952
SANISH4-202226287030582275757735533519
SANISH3-2022313515341727481087845745586
SANISH2-2022283215336615071158868923720
SANISH1-2022303133293010621064834706273
SANISH12-2021273909398915991185035376845
SANISH11-202115222421853904782426967
SANISH10-202131459646019302480110440138
SANISH9-2021304613484611551241410531895
SANISH8-2021254642458722281064786211137
SANISH7-202117161815729056290586649
SANISH6-202125342335751842980776651395
SANISH5-202131402441462732965532635773
SANISH4-202114229921311470476414972681
SANISH3-20213159776293359316087259512308
SANISH2-202128387535412371999731595531
SANISH1-202131350531902130565716713103
SANISH12-2020303240346224791461949078509
SANISH11-2020303796370124011153137906612
SANISH10-20201287830062186931030605331
SANISH9-202013197337425151320143717589
SANISH8-202014290378533212196520941129
SANISH7-2020152756948528929651640
SANISH6-2020170511648141903838802
SANISH5-20201535750413733728621623867
SANISH4-20201429844662922448112752315
SANISH3-2020142764178270291984428036
SANISH2-20201464747923570493314642650
SANISH1-20201470745113557578614942702
SANISH12-20191492356644582613416472824
SANISH11-2019163005872510118112163310
SANISH10-20191261923585587778968970
SANISH9-2019128572702542
SANISH8-201900960000
SANISH7-20190000000
SANISH6-20191728713503656717952841429
SANISH5-2019305588553313441396989993769