MDU Earnings, 4Q15 -- February 3, 2016

Updates

Later, 10:03 p.m. Central Time: this is how SeekingAlpha saw the MDU press release:

• MDU Resources : Q4 EPS of $0.25 misses by $0.02.
• Revenue of $926.4M (-17.3% Y/Y) misses by $233.6M.
• FY16 Guidance: Adj. EPS $1.00-$1.15, GAAP EPS $0.85-$1.10

Original Post 

Finally, MDU earnings and guidance:

• 2015 consolidated adjusted earnings of $180.0 million, or 92 cents per share, compared to $205.5 million, or $1.07 per share in 2014
• consolidated adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter were $48.6 million, or 25 cents per share, compared to $67.8 million, or 35 cents per share in 2014
• guidance: $1.00 to $1.15/share in 2016; when the refinery is included, on a GAAP basis, the guidance drops to 85 cents to $1.10
• at 25 cents, misses analysts' consensus of 27 cents; but on GAAP basis, met estimates -- take your pick

On a Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) basis, the company reported a loss for 2015 of $623.1 million, or $3.20 per share, compared to 2014 earnings of $297.5 million, or $1.55 per share. GAAP earnings for the fourth quarter of 2015 were $52.4 million, or 27 cents per share compared to $84.1 million, or 43 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2014.

So many numbers. We will let the market Thursday morning tell us what shareholders think. 

But at least we hear this:

"I am not satisfied with our overall earnings performance," said David L. Goodin, president and CEO of MDU Resources Group. "However, we did have important successes such as record earnings at our construction materials business, good execution on a record capital budget at the utility and record throughput at our pipeline group.

"We also have nearly completed our strategic exit from the oil and gas exploration and production business. This will allow us to focus on above-average regulated growth with our capital expenditure forecast and construction opportunities at a lower business risk profile.

The refinery:

The Dakota Prairie Refinery, in which the company has a 50 percent ownership interest, began commercial operations in May. The company's share of 2015 refining results is an adjusted loss of $20.5 million, and a GAAP loss of $22.5 million, as a result of dramatic changes in the oil commodity market. 

Fidelity:

The company has nearly completed the sale of oil and natural gas assets held by its indirect subsidiary, Fidelity Exploration & Production Company. It has closed on four sale agreements and has signed a purchase and sale agreement for a fifth asset package; collectively these sales represent more than 93 percent of total production. The company continues to market one remaining asset package. Aggregate sale proceeds and related tax benefits are estimated to be approximately $450 million. Debt repayment is planned as the primary use of funds. 

When I looked at the previously published data regarding "the Fidelity sale" it looked like the vast amount of Fidelity was sold to one company. It will be interesting to see the pieces that were left for the others. It's possible that one buyer actually closed on four separate sale agreements. I don't know. Time will tell, I suppose.

What The NDIC Map Of 44 Active Wells Looks Like In North Dakota -- February 3, 2016; VENEZUELA CRUDE OUTPUT FALLS SHORT, FORCES IT TO IMPORT OIL

What the NDIC GIS map of 44 active wells looks like:

• Link here. This link takes you to a series of graphics.

• The timeline, without graphics, is here.

Venezuela

Updates

The lights go out in Venezuela:

Venezuelans are accustomed to severe shortages of cooking oil, diapers and other staple products. But those hoping to buy what they could find got a new unpleasant surprise this week.

They found malls dark and shuttered under a government electricity rationing regime.

"This is madness, this is not the solution!" said Nataly Orta, 48, at the locked gate of the Lider mall in eastern Caracas.

"It's a drastic measure that will only create more unemployment and worsen an economy already in crisis."

Authorities ordered more than 250 shopping centers to find other sources of power from 1:00 to 3:00 pm and again from 7:00 to 9:00 pm, for the next three months.

A business association then said on Saturday the authorities had agreed to relax that requirement by supplying some stores with power in return for them reducing their opening hours.

Unable to generate their own electricity, most malls had been shutting their doors during those early afternoon and evening time slots.

Original Post

 

Tweeting now:  First US Gulf Coast WTI crude oil cargo delivered to Curacao (VENEZUELA) at NYMEX WTI plus $3.96/bbl. Platts story here. It is a very long and important story. It includes the following:

VENEZUELA CRUDE OUTPUT FALLS SHORT, FORCES IT TO IMPORT OIL

Venezuela has fallen short of the type of crude needed to meet the needs of its refineries for some time now and importing this cargo to the Isla refinery highlights that issue.

The Isla refinery has a capacity of 335,000 b/d. PDVSA has operated the Isla refinery, located 283 km north of the Venezuelan coast, since 1985 under a lease contract between the Venezuelan and Curacao governments. The lease has been renewed several times. The industrial services plant, called Curacao Refinery Utilities, is the property of the Curacao government.

In August, PDVSA made a decision to reactivate the lubricants complex at Isla. The complex's operations had been halted since early 2013 due to a lack of crude from Venezuela. It consists of four units: 4,200 mt/day high vacuum unit; a 1,000 mt/day propane de-asphalting unit; a 1,900 mt/day furfural extraction unit; and a 1,300 mt/day methyl ethyl ketone dewaxing unit.

Towards the end of 2015, PDVSA said Russia's Rosneft would provide Urals crude for use in the manufacturing of lubricants at Isla. That contract was for the purchase of 35,000-45,000 b/d of Urals blend, Jesus Luongo, PDVSA's vice president of refining, trade and supply, said in a statement at that time. In the previous three months, PDVSA had used an average 8,000 b/d of Urals crude, he said.

The purchase of crude from Russia, and now from the US, is necessary because Venezuelan production of this sort of crude is not sufficient to supply the Curacaoan refinery's process train, Luongo said then.

This is an incredibly important story for many reasons. One of the story lines has to do with "the type of oil." Regular readers are very, very aware of the issue of "the right type of oil." Bakken and west Texas oil are the "gold standards" for global oil: low sulfur and requiring little refining. (Note: sulfur-oil is required in some refining.)

It is interesting this story just appeared. Moments earlier I had received another story on how soon Venezuela might collapse but chose not to highlight it as a stand-alone post (maybe I should have) but simply updated the global wrap at this post.

I remember the days -- it was not too long ago -- that Venezuela was giving away its oil to residents in New England, United States. 

Gasoline Demand -- Really, Really Good News -- February 3, 2016

Reporting today:

• Comcast, at 79 cents misses 82 cents forecast, but other good news; shares up;
• General Motors, at $.130 easily beat $1.22 forecast and other great news, but market not happy; shares down;
• Marathon Petroleum (MPC), at 79 cents easily beat 69 cents forecast but slows dividend growth; problem with MLP; shares down;
• Southern Company (SO), at 44 cents beats 43 cents but revenues off; shares down;
• MDU, at 25 cents misses 27 cents forecast; or maybe 27 cents -- too many numbers; see link  (the link is currently off-line; will be back up in the morning);

Crude oil had a huge day today; John Kemp, who probably has the best handle on this, says "short squeeze."

Really, really good news:

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Back To The Bakken

Only one (1) new permit:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Elidah
• Comments:

Two permits canceled, including:

• XTO, 1, a Prairie Federal permit in McKenzie County
• Whiting, 1, a NERU permit in Billings County

Three permits renewed:

• Whiting, 2, both were Beaver Creek State permits in Golden Valley County
• Petro Harvester, 1, a Miller permit in Burke County

Four (4) producing wells were completed:

• 27626, 811, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-3, Baskin, t1/16; cum --
• 29492, 2,581, XTO, Rita 44X-34G, Tobacco Garden, t12/15; cum 2K 12/15 over 3 days;
• 30667, 1,162, Hess, EN-L Cvancara-155-93-2627H-11, Robinson Lake, t1/16; cum --
• 30674, 458,  Hess, BL-Odegaard-156-92-2116H-8, Beaver Lodge, t1/16; cum -- 

Active rigs:

	2/3/2016	02/03/2015	02/03/2014	02/03/2013	02/03/2012
Active Rigs	44	143	188	187	202

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:

• 26914, 2,526, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-4H, Four Bears, t8/15; cum 107K 12/15; on line only one day 12/15 and no production in 12/15; 107K in less than four months; 33 stages; 5 million lbs;
• 29536, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-155-94-3526H-5, Alkali Creek, no production data,
• 31465, SI/NC, Statoil, Topaz 20-17 7H, Banks, no production data,
• 31667, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 434-3402H, Parshall, no production data,
  

**********************************

26914, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-4H, Four Bears:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2015	330	0
11-2015	16581	19489
10-2015	22586	29364
9-2015	29925	32896
8-2015	37750	0

Idle Chatter On DUCs And Related Data Points -- February 3, 2016

I'm going to take a break from blogging in a few minutes. This last note for awhile won't go into much explanation. This post is intended for those in the audience with a pretty good feeling for / a pretty good understanding of the Bakken.

With regard to DUCs, there is a lot of discussion about how fast drillers can bring these DUCs on line. The pessimists suggest with 1,000 DUCs now (and likely to be 1,500 before 2016 is over), and a shortage of frack spreads, it's not going to be easy to get those DUCs on line as fast as some might suggest. I disagree. I think folks will be surprised how fast drillers can get these wells fracked  / clear up the backlog if the price supports such action.

However, I think there is a much, much bigger "thing" going on. There are two types of drillers out there right now: those with deep pockets, and those with pockets whose change has fallen through the holes.

Those with nearly empty pockets are producing at maximum production; those with deeper pockets are producing just enough to keep things going at the rate they select.

I don't have time to write any more but take a look at these two updates to see if you can see what I'm seeing.

• http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2015/12/a-reader-asks-about-production-profile.html.
• http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2015/12/random-look-at-15-wells-in-one-640-acre.html.

As usual, I might be making too much out of this, but I don't think so. I did not cherry pick. I was in the process of updating some things that I had listed earlier as "things to follow up on" and these were the first two items I came across. I am sure there are a hundred similar examples.

Bottom line: in addition to fracking DUCs, there are a lot of completed/fracked wells that are being "managed." Those wells can see production surge in less than 30 days. And with all the pad drilling, it will become even more common.

As long as I digress: when they build a new natural gas plant, one sees promoters telling us it will take 2,000 workers to build it (temporary jobs) and then once the natural gas plant is on line, it will take about 45 employees to run it (long-term jobs).

I'm starting to wonder if we aren't seeing this in the "manufacturing stage" of the Bakken. The Saudi Surge/Slump forced Bakken operators' hands faster than planned, and it's very, very painful, but if one uses the "new" natural gas plant as a metaphor, it took thousands of temporary jobs to get the Bakken up and running (200 rigs/month); now that the "Bakken manufacturing plant" is up and running, it takes a lot fewer employees (35 rigs, perhaps).

Note: it takes 35 rigs to maintain a certain level of activity; this does not mean that the number of rigs won't increase significantly if the price of crude oil supports increased activity. Unlike a natural gas plant that maintains the same number of employees over time (for the most part), the "manufacturing stage" in the oil patch is more like typical manufacturing -- demand will drive more activity requiring more employees (measured in rigs).

Future Housepainter

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Things To Follow-Up On

Updates

This update is very, very interesting.  

The last sundry form for these Kennedy-Miles wells is dated April, 2013. These wells were fracked in January 2015 timeframe. I can find nothing to explain why the surge in production over the last four months; there were no nearby wells recently fracked. Take a look at the original post and the recent production at this link: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2015/12/a-reader-asks-about-production-profile.html. Maybe a reader from the area, or a surface owner might have some insight regarding recent work on these wells.

I was concerned about this well but everything seems "back to normal":

December 24, 2015: this huge well was taken off-line for most of August - October, 2015; follow up monthly until we see how this plays out:

• 17287, 1,137, EOG, Austin 22-31H, Parshall, single section, t10/08; cum 861K 10/15; is this another Amber Renee -- taking a great well off-line for no apparent reason? On-line for only 3 days in 11/15; 2 days in 10/15; 1 day in 9/15; etc. Good news: a full 30 days in December, 2015, production back to 2500 bbls/month.

*******************

The Apple Page

The "Square" is now at the Apple Store.

The folks at the outdoor Farmer's Market held on weekends in downtown Grapevine, Texas, use "the Square." Girl Scouts use "the Square." It is really quite impressive. It's amazing how many folks (see comments at the link) can complain about it. Nothing is perfect, but with each iteration the technology improves. As it is, it is very, very impressive.

I've followed the "Square" from the very beginning; knew it was going to be a "next big thing" and it certainly is.

Apparently The Science Is Not Settled -- February 3, 2016

Overheard in McDonald's, Salina, KS: regardless of how the Presidential election turns out, Americans will be paying for Hillary Clinton's housing and living expenses starting next year: either in the White House, or Leavenworth, Kansas. The only thing protecting her from Leavenworth right now is her possible election; but, if not elected, all bets are off.

***********************************

The Science, Apparently, Is Not Settled

Why calling 2015 the "warmest year in history" is problematic -- a great essay in The Daily Signal.  Archived.

Measuring global temperatures: satellites or thermometers? -- perhaps one of the most balanced, informational short essays I've read in a long time. Over at cfact.org. Archived.

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Five Groups Who Can Still Use Valuable Social Security Strategies

The Wall Street Journal posted this list of the five groups. There were two huge strategies that President Obama eliminated which, I have to agree, in the "spirit of the law," that one can argue these strategies never should have existed.

I think it would have been much better to retain the strategies, but on a "means tested" basis.

Whatever.

The great news is this: I was completely unaware of one of the two strategies. And I am in the group that will retain "access" to that strategy. It's incredible, some days, how things work out. 

There were (and are) so many different ways to tap into social security benefits.

I wonder if Bernie would have eliminated the two strategies that President Obama eliminated. I heard him on Charlie Rose last night. Ayn Rand is rolling in her grave. RIP.

NIMBY -- Maine -- Wind -- February 3, 2016

Build the wind farms in North Dakota! Not Maine! These mega-projects will turn Maine into a "wind plantation!" LOL. NIMBY.

The Ithaca Voice is reporting:

Citizen groups that oppose large-scale wind power development in Maine reacted strongly Tuesday to news that developers were proposing numerous wind farms in the state that would supply clean energy to southern New England. The groups have been fighting several of the projects individually, but were alarmed at the overall scale of the combined proposals.

“This will turn Maine into a wind plantation,” said Chris O’Neil, a spokesman for Friends of Maine’s Mountains.

Maine figured prominently this week in a multibillion-dollar competition to provide power to Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, with companies submitting bids to build giant wind farms in Aroostook County and the western mountains. Together the projects would more than triple the state’s turbine capacity, but the power would not be sold in Maine.

O’Neil said southern New England states were shuttering nuclear, oil and coal plants in their quest for cleaner power, but not taking responsibility for replacing the lost generation.

“They’re jumping off a cliff and expecting Maine to bail them out,” he said.
But energy officials and industry representatives in Maine were tamping down impressions that all or even most of these projects would be built.

“I’ve been trying to get the public prepared for this and not think that all of these projects will be developed,” said Patrick Woodcock, Gov. Paul LePage’s energy director. “In fact, under the request-for-proposals, it’s not even possible for all of them to be chosen.”

President Obama's Clean Power Plan does not allow hydroelectricity to be considered in calculations used for meeting CO2 emissions -- and Maine has potentially great access to hydroelectricity from Canada.

Maine doesn't want natural gas pipelines either.

Maniacs definitely don't want CBR.

And they are shuttering nuclear plants and coal burning plants.

Let's see: that leaves wood. Lots of trees in Maine.

Meanwhile in New York state, after ten years of working this proposal, the state has taken another small step toward implementing this wind farm. The IthacaVoice is reporting:

A project that has essentially be (sic) in progress for 10 years now, the wind farm remains source of controversy in the town of Enfield and throughout Tompkins.

Some residents of the town fear for their safety due to potential turbine accidents. Other are also concerned about their quality of life based on issues like ambient sound and shadow flicker caused by the turbines.

Last week, a committee of the Tompkins County Legislature voted to pass a recommendation in support of "the timely development of" the Black Oak Wind Farm in Enfield on to the full legislature.

• a committee
• recommendation
• in support of
• timely development of 

The project:

Black Oak Wind Farm, LLC., plans to have seven 2.3 megawatt wind turbines built by General Electric, in total producing 16.1 megawatts, on approximately 1,000 acre parcel of land. All electricity produced on the farm, which is enough to power about 5,000 local households, have been purchased by Cornell.

Once completed, Black Oak will be New York State’s first community-owned wind farm, meaning state residents and companies are able to invest in the for-profit energy company. Marguerite Wells, vice president of the board of managers and the project manager, said the about 150 investors have put in $3 million into the project. The entire project is estimated to cost around $40 million.

$40 million / 16.1 MW = $2.5 million / MW. A reader reminds us: wind only works a third of the time, and it is not always there when you need it. It needs back-up fossil fuel power. Wind energy is non-dispatchable: Dispatchable generation refers to sources of electricity that can be dispatched at the request of power grid operators or of the plant owner; that is, generating plants that can be turned on or off, or can adjust their power output accordingly to an order.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Updates

February 5, 2016: more on that Amazon story from WSJ: 

The revelation this week that Amazon.com Inc. may open bookstores across the U.S. would seem to defy a 20-year-old online blueprint to pummel brick-and-mortar retailers with cutthroat prices and a seemingly limitless product selection.

But Amazon’s apparent plan to build a physical presence in shopping malls and urban centers is following the playbook of smaller Internet retailers that are finding early success reaching shoppers via storefronts and kiosks.

Web retailers including eyeglasses seller Warby Parker, jewelry outlet Blue Nile Inc. and clothing boutique Bonobos Inc. are addressing one of the biggest disadvantages of online shopping with showroom stores that enable customers to touch, feel and try on goods before they buy them online. Their small outlets also act as brand boosters, helping offset the prohibitively expensive costs of acquiring customers online.

Original Post

 

From The Wall Street Journal today.

Wow, ChemChina will buy Swiss seeds and pesticides for $43 billion. This is absolutely huge.

Chinese companies shopping abroad at record pace.

GM’s fourth-quarter profit surged amid growth in China and booming sales of pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles in the U.S.

But the biggest news of the day: Amazon considers opening up to 400 bookstores, expanding Seattle experiment. Online retail giant Amazon considers large expansion of Seattle prototype book store, joining online retailers that already have opened physical stores and posing a potential threat to Barnes & Noble. Sure, why not? Open the warehouses to the general public. Barnes and Noble took years to build to 640 stores; and, the 255 Books-A-Million stores which I avoid at all costs. If one has a choice, Half-Price Books is so much better than Books-A-Million. [Did someone let the "cat out of the bag?"]

Isn't this interesting. Toyota ending the Scion brand. Toyota Motor Corp. is killing its Scion brand, folding the vehicles back into the Toyota brand portfolio, 13 years after the brand debuted and helped the company capture young buyers. I always wanted a Scion, but I wanted a Tesla or a Volt first. 

Comcast profit buoyed by growth in video and broadband subscribers. Comcast increased video customers in the fourth quarter, adding to a surprising comeback for the cable industry in a weak overall pay-TV market. 

************************** 

Wind: This Might Make Sense For England -- Might Is The Operative Word

World's largest wind farm announced: Denmark’s Dong Energy, part-owned by Goldman Sachs, is going ahead with the world’s largest offshore wind farm, the Hornsea project off the coast of northeast England, making it the first of its kind to have the capacity to produce more than one gigawatt of electricity.

The 1,200-megawatt project, located 120 kilometers off the coast of the county of Yorkshire, will be the first offshore wind project is set to power more than a million British homes, the company said. The project will receive U.K. government support in the form of a fixed tariff for the first 15 years of production.

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Bots: Increase Warehouse Productivity By 800%

Techinsider is reporting:  

The bots work alongside humans and do all the normal grunt work. Warehouse workers usually walk 12 to 16 miles each day. With the robots, they don't have to.

The robots now meet the human workers in the middle of the warehouse. As soon as someone completes an order online, the bot's system knows exactly where to go in the 275,000-square-foot warehouse.

Each bot (which doesn't look anything like a human) has a platform for arms and a two-foot-diameter base with wheels for feet. It zips around at about 4.5 mph, or the equivalent of a fast walk. If stray boxes or wires stand in its path, its vision technology can "see" in real-time to avoid them.

Since the robots are able to move faster than humans without tiring, Welty says the system will boost warehouse productivity by up to 800%. The bots will also not be subject to human error, which means that they can get the order right nearly every time.

As a way to increase productivity and speed, many online retailers have been using robots, conveyor belts, and cranes to fulfill orders for the past decade. Amazon has exclusive rights to Kiva Systems' robots, but Welty says Locus' robots are smaller, and more lightweight and versatile.

Unlike Kiva's bots, the Locus robots can be incorporated into the warehouses' existing infrastructure. The warehouse doesn't need to move any shelves or aisles. Locus can program the robot to navigate the warehouse exactly how it is. 

Sort of like Roomba. 

We Start The Day At Record Low Active Rigs In North Dakota, 44 -- February 3, 2016

Well, actually, I start the day snowed in, in northern Kansas. And what a beautiful day it is. 

Active rigs:

	2/3/2016	02/03/2015	02/03/2014	02/03/2013	02/03/2012
Active Rigs	44	143	188	187	202

RBN Energy: Crude By Rail Decline Picks Up Pace. Archived.

With crude prices below $30/Bbl and the price spread between U.S. domestic crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and international equivalent Brent trading in a very narrow range – the economics of moving Crude-by-Rail (CBR) rarely make sense any more.  Rail shipments are down across all regions and railroads are reporting sharply lower revenues from CBR shipments.  Today we start a new series revisiting the regions where CBR traffic boomed a couple of years back and contemplating its future value to shippers and refiners.

We’ve been covering the CBR scene ever since RBN started posting blogs back in 2012 – including our seminal series “Crude Loves Rock’n’Rail” that described how producers turned to rail over pipelines – first in North Dakota and later in other shale basins. Historically, crude-by-rail transport dominated the early oil industry in North America - underpinning John D Rockefeller’s monopoly.

But it’s use declined after WW2 once pipelines were built to ship larger volumes of crude over longer distances. Pipelines have been almost always preferred since then because (once built) their freight costs are generally lower than using rail or trucks. More recently however, surging crude production from shale overwhelmed existing pipeline take-away infrastructure leading to significant constraints and price discounting – particularly in the Midwest – while producers waited for the build out of new pipeline capacity that is typically a relatively slow process taking up to 3 years.

As a result, at the end of 2010, producers (led by innovators EOG and railroad BNSF) turned to the rails to deliver crude past congested pipelines to coastal markets where netbacks (crude sales price less transport costs from the wellhead) were considerably higher. The resulting surge saw total U.S. CBR shipments (not including Canadian imports) increase from 33 Mb/d in January 2010 to a peak of 928 Mb/d in October 2014 (as measured by the Energy Information Administration – EIA – see A Look At The Crude By Rail Track Record).

Whiting To Report A Huge Well In Truax Oil Field -- February 3, 2016

Note: if you have questions about "confidential" rules, see question #15 at FAQs. That was posted some time ago, but I assume it's still fairly accurate.

These wells are now off the confidential list; the monthly production data was posted while the wells were still on confidential status:

31086, 2,249, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13H, Truax, API 33-105-04031, fracked 9/2-13/15, 9.7 million gallons of water, 8% by weight sand; t9/15; cum 390K 5/20;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2015	32111	0
11-2015	34457	0
10-2015	38566	0
9-2015	17598	0

31087, 2,399, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13H3, Truax, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre spacing, API 33-105-04032, fracked 9/2-13/15, 4.6 million gallons of water, 12.6% by weight sand; t9/15; cum 218K 5/20;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2015	13321	0
11-2015	7435	0
10-2015	34516	0
9-2015	19138	0

31088, 2,248, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13HA, Truax, middle Bakken, background gas in the upper Bakken hit 6,898 units; API 33-105-04033, fracked 8/23 - 9/3/2015; 9.8 million gallons of water, 8.2% by weight sand; t9/15; cum 330K 5/20;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2015	22261	0
11-2015	34817	0
10-2015	27737	0
9-2015	9954	0

31089, 2,374, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-14H3, Truax, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre, API 33-105-04034, fracked 8/23 - 9/3/2015; 5 million gallons of water, 11.86% by weight sand; t10/15; cum 260K 5/20;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2015	8556	0
11-2015	27823	0
10-2015	41931	0
9-2015	12151	0

20857, IA/358, Pankowski 4-6H, t2/12; cum 261K 1/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 5/20;

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Fracking Data

Note: this is simply for my own enjoyment. I have no idea how accurate this might be. I am using 42 gallons of water per bbl and the standard weight in pounds for a gallon of water. Not all work is shown. All numbers are rounded. I do this quickly and do not double-check it. Typographical and factual errors are likely. Do not quote me on any of this. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Back-of-the-envelope calculations (done for the fun of it to compare with the data that will be provided later by Whiting):

31086:

• 9.7 million gallons of water, 8% by weight sand, per FracFocus:
• 92% of what =  80,949,062 pounds of water = 87,988,111 pounds
• 8% = 7 million lbs of sand
• Later, from the NDIC: 7.3 million lbs of sand

31087:

• 4.6 million gallons of water, 12.6% by weight sand per FracFocus:
• 87.4% of what = 38,388,215 = 43,922,443 pounds
• 12.6% = 5.5 million lbs of sand 
• Later, from the NDIC: 5.5 million lbs of sand

31088:

• 9.8 million gallons of water, 8.2% by weight sand per FracFocus:
• 91.8% of what = 81,783,588 pounds
• 8.2% = 6.7 million lbs of sand 
• Later, from the NDIC: 7.3 million lbs of sand

31089:

• 5 million gallons of water, 11.86% by weight sand per FracFocus:
• 88.14% of what = 41,726,321 pounds
• 11.86% = 4.95 million lbs sand
• Later, from the NDIC: 5.9 million lbs of sand

Random Update Of First 100 Permits In 2Q15 -- North Dakota -- February 3, 2016

Permit	Operator	County	Field	Satus	Name	Comments
31003	BR	McKenzie	Elidah	conf	Cleetwood 44-22MBH
31004	XTO	McKenzie	North Tobacco Garden	SI/NC	Rita 44X-34HXE
31005	QEP	McKenzie	Grail	prod	Henderson 36-25-35-26T2H	a big well; choked way back
31006	QEP	McKenzie	Grail	prod	Henderson 36-25-35-26BH	a big well; choked way back
31007	QEP	McKenzie	Grail	prod	Henderson 1-12-2-11BH	a big well; choked way back
31008	QEP	McKenzie	Grail	prod	Henderson 1-12-2-11T2H	a big well; choked way back
31009	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Shell 44-3239H
31010	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Shell 46-3229H
31011	Newfield	McKenzie	Westberg	1348	Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-11H	t9/15; cum 39K 12/15;
31012	Newfield	McKenzie	Westberg	833	Wahus State 152-97-12-1-12H	t9/15; cum 43K 12/15;
31013	Newfield	McKenzie	Westberg	1348	Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-4H	t9/15; cum 55K 12/15;
31014	WPX	Mountrail	Van Hook	702	Elk 17-20HE	t10/15; cum 37K 12/15;
31015	Hess	Mountrail	Alger	conf	EN-Abrahamson-LE-155-93-3019H-1
31016	Hess	Mountrail	Alger	conf	EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-4
31017	Hess	Mountrail	Alger	conf	EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-9
31018	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Shell 40-3229H
31019	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Shell 42-3229H
31020	BR	McKenzie	North Fork	conf	Saddle Butte 14-9MTFH-ULW
31021	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Shell 49-3231H
31022	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Shell 48-3231H
31023	Whiting	Williams	East Fork	prod	P Berger 156-100-14-7-19-13H	a huge well;
31024	Whiting	Williams	East Fork	loc	P Berger 156-100-14-7-19-13H3
31025	Whiting	Williams	East Fork	prod	P Berger 156-100-14-7-19-14H	a huge well;
31026	Whiting	Williams	East Fork	loc	P Berger 156-100-14-7-19-14H3
31027	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	796	EN-Frandson-154-93-2116H-7	t10/15; cum 45K 12/15; only 8 days in 12/15
31028	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	596	EN-Franson-154-93-2116H-8	t10/15; cum 29K 12/15; only 17 days in 12/15
31029	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	578	EN-Frandson-154-93-2116H-9	t10/15; cum 20K 12/15; only 4 days in 12/15
31030	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Shell 52-1930H
31031	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Shell 6-1930H
31032	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Shell 5-1930H
31033	Statoil	Mountrail	Alger	SI/NC	Vachal 3-34 5TFH
31034	Statoil	Mountrail	Alger	SI/NC	Vachal 3-34 6H
31035	Whiting	Mountrail	Sanish	loc	Kaden TTT 11-25H
31036	Whiting	Mountrail	Sanish	loc	Westin TTT 11-25H
31037	Statoil	Mountrail	Alger	SI/NC	Vachal 3-34 8TFH
31038	Statoil	Mountrail	Alger	SI/NC	Vachal 3-34 7H
31039	Statoil	Mountrail	Alger	SI/NC	Vachal 3-34 XW
31040	Thunderbird Resources	McKenzie	Ranch Creek	conf	Watson B N34-11-4H
31041	Thunderbird Resources	McKenzie	Ranch Creek	conf	Watson B N34-11-3H
31042	Thunderbird Resources	McKenzie	Ranch Creek	conf	Watson B N34-11-2H
31043	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Austin 92-1807H
31044	XTO	McKenzie	Grinnell	conf	Homer Federal 14X-32F2
31045	XTO	McKenzie	Grinnell	conf	Homer Federal 14X-32F
31046	XTO	McKenzie	Grinnell	conf	Home Federal 14X-32B
31047	OXY USA	Dunn	Manning	loc	State Dvorak A 8-16-21H-1542-96
31048	OXY USA	Dunn	Manning	loc	State Dvorak A 9-16-21H-142-96L
31049	Whiting	McKenzie	Pembroke	SI/NC	Smokeky 2-16-21-15H3
31050	Whiting	McKenzie	Pembroke	SI/NC	Smokey 2-16-21-16HA
31051	Whiting	McKenzie	Pembroke	SI/NC	Smokey 2-16-21-16H3
31052	Whiting	McKenzie	Pembroke	SI/NC	Smokey 2-16-21-16H
31053	Oasis	McKenzie	Camp	conf	Andersmadson 5201 42-24 3B
31054	Oasis	McKenzie	Camp	conf	Andersmadson 5201 42-24 4T
31055	Oasis	McKenzie	Camp	conf	Andersmadson 5201 42-24 5B
31056	Oasis	McKenzie	Camp	conf	Andersmadson 5201 42-24 6T
31057	MRO	McKenzie	Antelope	conf	Charmaine USA 14-35TFH
31058	MRO	McKenzie	Antelope	conf	Clarks Creek USA 14-35H
31059	MRO	McKenzie	Antelope	conf	Ethel USA 14-35TFH-2B
31060	MRO	McKenzie	Antelope	conf	Heather USA 13-35TFH
31061	MRO	McKenzie	Antelope	conf	Juanita USA 13-35H
31062	Denbury	Bowman	Cedar Hills	170	CHSU ML41-02NH 05	Red River B, t7/15; cum 30K 12/15
31063	Whiting	McKenzie	Pembroke	SI/NC	Smokey 2-16-21-16HU3
31064	SM Energy	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Rich 1X-16HA
31065	SM Energy	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Steve 1-16H
31066	SM Energy	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Rini 1X-16HB
31067	Whiting	Williams	Epping	loc	P Ellis 155-99-13-31-30-4H
31068	Whiting	Williams	Epping	loc	P Ellis 155-99-13-31-30-4H3
31069	Whiting	Williams	Stockyard Creek	loc	P Ellis 155-99-13-31-7-13H3
31070	Whiting	Williams	Stockyard Creek	loc	P Ellis 155-99-13-31-7-13H
31071	Enerplus	McKenzie	Eagle Nest	conf	Bait 149-95-36-25H
31072	Enerplus	McKenzie	Eagle Nest	conf	Tackle 149-95-36C-25H
31073	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Inez 1B-16HN
31074	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Loren 1B-16HS
31075	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Rolie 1-16HN
31076	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	prod	Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-6h	a big well
31077	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	prod	Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-7H
31078	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	lprod	Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-8H	a big well
31079	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	loc	Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-10H
31080	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	prod	Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-9H	a big well
31081	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	loc	Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-10H
31082	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	loc	Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-7H
31083	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	loc	Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-9H
31084	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	loc	Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-8H
31085	HRC	Dunn	McGregory Buttes	loc	Fort Berthold 148-94-35C-26-6H
31086	Whiting	Williams	Truax	prod	P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13H	a huge well
31087	Whiting	Williams	Truax	prod	P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13H3	a huge well
31088	Whiting	Williams	Truax	prod	P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13HA	a huge well
31089	Whiting	Williams	Truax	prod	P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-14H3	a huge well
31090	BR	Dunn	Cabernet	conf	E. H. Stroh 4B MBH-ULW
31091	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	conf	Nordeng 34X-23A
31092	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	conf	Nordeng 34X-23AXB
31093	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	conf	Nordeng 34X-23EXF
31094	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	conf	Nordeng 34X-23B
31095	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	conf	Nordeng 34X-23F
31096	Crescent Point	Divide	Colgan	conf	CPEC Elgaard 3-31-32-164N-100@
31097	Crescent Point	Divide	Colgan	conf	CPEC Elgaard 2-31-32-164N-100W
31098	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	444	BL-Iverson C-155-96-1423H-2	t12/15; cum 12K 12/15;
31099	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	886	BL-Iverson C-155-96-1423H-4	t11/15; cum 34K 12/15;
31100	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	740	BL-Iverson C-LE-155-96-1423H-1	t11/15; cum 30K 12/15;
31101	Samson Resources	Divide	Ambrose	conf	Beetle 3130-7H
31102	Samson Resources	Divide	Ambrose	conf	Beetle 3130-5H
31103	Samson Resources	Divide	Ambrose	conf	Charger 0607-6h
31104	CLR	Dunn	Oakdale	A	Hawkinson 15-22H	no test date; s5/15; cum 7K 12/15;
31105	Whiting	McKenzie	Poe	PNC	Koala 44-5H
31106	Whiting	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Koala 44-5-2H