Notes From All Over -- The Late Evening Edition -- November 15, 2020

The market: will "we" go over 30,000 this week?

The market:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

SRE: one of my favorite companies. But the company scares me. A California company. From SeekingAlpha today (archived):

• Sempra Energy, a $38.8 billion market-cap utility and energy infrastructure company, offers a 3.1% dividend and operates in four key markets: California, Texas, Mexico, and liquefied natural gas.
• Like other utilities, the company offers upside as regional growth resumes in Texas post-Covid-19 shutdown and is expected to resume in California.
• The company is one of the largest developers of U.S. LNG projects and has just scaled up to full-capacity operations at its Cameron, Louisiana facility.
• Comments: I think SRE needs to look for acquisitions outside of California to offset California regulatory and policy concerns. Perhaps acquiring utilities like Black Hills Corp or MDU.  

Market cap:

• MDU: $5 billion
• BKH: $4 bilion
• SRE: $40 billion

Or maybe SRE is a nice bauble for Warren Buffett which would minimize SRE's California risks. 

Maybe SRE needs to think Tex-Mex and get out of California.

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The Art Page

Don't you just love these paintings? All painted by the granddaughters between the ages of two years of age and eight years of age? The pumpkin may have been painted by Olivia before she was two years old; I can't remember.

The most recent addition, by Sophia, age 6. This has quickly become one of my favorites.

An XTO Fettig Well With Nice Jump In Production -- November 15, 2020

An earlier post:

• January 30, 2020: several recently fracked wells cut horizontally across these three wells, #18766 (Fettig), #20711; #20995; first month back, #18766 with a nice jump in production but others not reporting yet; follow a bit longer;

So, let's see what #20711, #20995, and #18766 are doing. One has been abandoned; one showed a nice jump in production; and one is just coming back on line.

• 20995, 227, WPX, Blue Buttes 3-21H, Squaw Creek, t3/12; cum 197K 9/20; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	2	140	85	128	179	0	142
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	16	2164	2082	1805	2286	0	1727
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	10	390	281	290	412	0	246
BAKKEN	8-2019	28	1498	1447	680	2706	490	1526
BAKKEN	7-2019	28	1986	2037	833	3589	1	2758
BAKKEN	6-2019	15	360	364	301	652	0	390

• 20711, AB/1,392, XTO, Lucy Lone Fight 16-22H, Squaw Creek, t19/11; cum 124K 4/19; off line since 4/19; and now on AB status;
  

• 18766, 1,392, XTO, Fettig 24-22H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 115K 9/20; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	14	491	679	665	614	0	386
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	3793	3720	1636	4059	0	3326
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	4844	5050	1505	5183	0	4470
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	5018	4855	2127	5369	0	4636
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	5911	6319	2452	6325	0	5568
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	6018	5723	2574	6440	0	5707
BAKKEN	3-2020	21	3952	4047	2355	4255	0	3676
BAKKEN	2-2020	1	0	0	0	28	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	3	275	0	2563	412	0	329
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	10	116	444	128	246	0	2
BAKKEN	6-2019	29	363	430	93	708	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	389	369	105	757	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	382	312	104	721	0	7
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	415	255	102	859	0	3

WPX's Wolverine Wells In South Fork Have been Fracked; Nice Wells -- November 15, 2020

This is so cool -- why I love to blog. 

Earlier this year, I asked whether WXP was getting ready to frack the Wolverine wells:

• March 19, 2020: *************neighboring wells soon to be fracked? #37072, #37071, #37070, and #37069; watch halo effect on #21789, Enerplus Earth Lodge off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line for 9 days 8/20 but back off line 9/20;

Well, it turns out they were fracked, and they are great wells. The wells:

• 37069, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HD, South Fork, t--; cum 77K over 52 days; cum 307K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	25	28474	28494	23354	20272	16912	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	27	48648	48427	44442	34394	28921	268

• 37070, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HZ, South Fork, t--; cum 74K over 56 days; cum 293K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	27958	27970	32353	19766	15588	811
BAKKEN	8-2020	26	46319	46109	51338	37281	32325	0

• 37071, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HC, South Fork, t--; cum 61K over 52 days; cum 239K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	27	21039	21071	21289	14875	11981	312
BAKKEN	8-2020	25	40002	39821	42381	28783	24503	0

• 37072, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HY, South Fork, t--; cum 55K over 51 days; cum 243K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	27	19906	19923	29783	16865	14399	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	24	34728	34570	41568	26189	22473	0

And the horizontal wells to the south:

• 21790, 1,631, Enerplus, Tipi 148-93-22A-21H, South Fork, t8/15; cum 423K 9/20; cum 466K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	1732	1718	1661	2693	976	994
BAKKEN	8-2020	10	463	650	407	612	269	1
BAKKEN	7-2020	14	630	638	600	1103	236	525
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	1884	1804	1470	2866	2043	2
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	3240	3301	2454	8006	4696	97
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	3387	3190	2803	6934	2908	102
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	3414	3466	3391	6287	3094	102
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	3210	3228	2730	8278	4576	96

• 21789, 1,908-->AB, Enerplus, Earth Lodge 148-93-22A-21H-TF, South Fork, t8/15; cum 328K 12/19, but erratic production;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	9	397	208	17	1466	86	1380
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	3158	0	3158
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	2	0	2	1	4	3	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	26	6	20	3	29	24	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	26	76	73	9	116	73	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	96	114	47	194	126	0

Notes From All Over -- The Post-Augusta Masters Edition -- November 15, 2020

Golf: Dustin Johnson sets four records winning the Masters.

Tiger: I honestly couldn't figure out how Tiger Woods made a ten on a par-3 hole. I was actually watching the tournament but CBS cut away so many times from this debacle, no one really saw this train wreck developing in slow motion. This is the best I could find. It was remarkable how CBS completely ignored this story; the post-tournament interview with Tiger focused on how well he played after this hole. LOL. 

Here's how hole 3 played out:

NFL: only game on "free" television -- a 3 - 6 team playing a 6 - 3 team; and the 3 - 6 team imploding. One more reason NFL viewership in shambles. Nothing to watch.

Back To Reproduction Numbers -- Chinese Flu -- November 15, 2020

PSA: I am neither personally nor publicly worried about a shortage of cleaning products this time around but a word to the wise: start to stock up. A six-week supply of paper products would be a great place to start. Walmart is starting to count customers again. 

Here we go again:

 I guess some families are going to have to be broken up to adhere to the 5-person limit.

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The R0 Factor

I can't recall if we discussed this on the blog. I do remember discussing this in a sidebar conversation with a reader some months ago. 

One link:

• basic reproduction number for measles:

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. 

R0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. 

As R0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. 

For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population ... We calculated median measles R0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12–18. 

R0, various sources, generally accepted:

• measles: 12 - 18
• chickenpox: 10 - 12
• seasonal flu (influenza, e.g., H1N1): 2 - 3
• Ebola: 1.7 - 2.0
• Chinese flu: 1.2

Basic reproduction number: wiki. 

From wiki and various other sources:

• measles, 12 - 18
• chickenpox: 10 - 12
• polio: 5 - 7
• smallpox: 3.5 - 6
• Chinese flu: 2- 6 (but still, probably too early to say for sure)
• seasonal flu / influenza: 1.4 - 1.6
• tuberculosis: 0.26 in the Netherlands; 4.3 in China;
  
• leprosy: below 1.0
  

The lower the R0 factor, the lower the percent required for "herd immunity."

The very, very low R0 factor for Chinese flu helps explain why even a family with one member getting infected, the others  do not become infected.

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Chinese Flu

November 15, 2020.

Link here: filter set to "yesterday."

Total cases / one million:

1. North Dakota at 8.3%
2. South Dakota at  7.3%
3. Iowa at 5.7%
4. Wisconsin at 5.2%
5. Nebraska at 5.0%

Reminder:

• Spanish flu, 1918 - 1920 -- estimated that 33% of global population infected with the virus.

#29. New York at 3.1%
#40. California at 2.6%

Bottom line: we've got a long way to go.

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Maybe What We Need ... Proven Technology ....

Notes From All Over -- Augusta Master's Edition -- November 15, 2020

Chinese flu: say what you want, but this doesn't give me a lot of positive vibes about the Pfizer vaccine. From "90% effective" to "maybe" a reduction of 50% transmission between humans. Link here. Yes, I understand "effectiveness" vs "transmission" is measuring two different things, comparing apples with oranges, but the American public and the editors of The New York Times won't be able to sort t out. At the end of the day: two weeks ago, we had a vaccine that was 90% effective; yesterday, we are being told, loudly and clearly, "maybe 50%." 

On another note: The creepiest commercial ever? This is exactly what the Germans did when Hitler was gassing people in concentration camps: the Germans ignored it, sat at home, on their couches. Link here. Maybe I'm missing something. 

On another note: I might have mentioned earlier on the blog that I recently brought home the largest Apple desktop iMac currently available. Wow, impressed. I'm sitting here typing on my workhorse, an old MacBook Air, with an iPhone monitoring our oldest granddaughter's water polo tournament, while watching the Masters on a huge Apple screen.

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A Musical Bio

Link here: Hedy West. From the bio:

In the autumn of 1970, she moved from Great Britain to Stony Brook. She picked her elderly grandparents' brains for scraps of musical memory. 

From The WSJ, yesterday, by Ann Podd: "My Family Tree -- and How I Found The Stories Behind the Names."

Interesting to read but not particularly noteworthy.

The three steps when compiling the family story:

• establish the scaffolding: the family tree itself;
• map geographic locations;
• capture interesting stories.

That was the takeaway from the article.

This was perhaps the most helpful advice Ms Podd provided:

I stopped and gave myself a two-year deadline and two goals. First, I would preserve and share the most important documents and photos so they weren’t lost with me. And second, I would limit my research to direct ancestry lines starting with our four sets of grandparents, determining: where their original hometowns were, and in what countries; why the original immigrants left; and what happened to them and their children when they got to the U.S.

It seems so obvious now: Once you focus on a smaller number of names, and know what you’re looking for, you have a task you can get your arms around. You can see the beginning, middle and end.

Most interesting: what Ms Podd did not tell us (unless I missed it or it was implied): how she presented her finished project. I had the impression her final project consisted of the following:

• numerous Rubbermaid bins with archival material that she did not catalogue;
• numerous 3-ring binders with document-protected memorabilia;
• a single 3-ring binder with the various family trees

If so, they Rubbermaid bins will end up in her attic or basement; her 3-ring binders will end up on shelves in her house. To which no one will have easy access.

Maybe she did this but simply did not tell us: use the web. Blogs or websites are perfect for family genealogy projects. Send the links to family and friends and invariably you get corrections and additions. 

The second thing: scan / photograph everything. The more you have, the more challenging it is, but in the end it is well worth the effort.

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Another Musical Interlude and Bio

Rosanne Cash.

500 Miles, Rosanne Cash, Hedy West

Completion Strategy For Hess In The Tioga Oil Field -- November 15, 2020

Updates

November 16, 2020: a reader who follows this much more closely than I do and who understands this much better than I do had this to say about this well:

It is very good to see you tracking the particulars of this drilling and completion stuff as these ongoing improvements will continue to play big roles in lowering the cost of producing US hydrocarbons.

Combining the reduced  cost/time to D&C wells with the ever increasing recovery rate is actually greatly expanding the footprint for economically  viable development.

For some  comparison, Range Resources - I believe - drilled about a 10,500 foot lateral in under 24 hours and Antero did a now-record 11,300+ foot in a 24 hour time span. 

Truly remarkable performances ... especially when one realizes that they are staying in zone about 100% of the time.

Original Post

This well is coming off the confidential list this next week:

• 7211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	14894	19554
8-2020	13348	12288
7-2020	20390	20727
6-2020	27419	36751
5-2020	9653	12674

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Completion strategies tracked here.
 

FracFocus: 

• fracked 4/6/20 - 4/17/20: 10.8 million gallons of water, a large frack for the Bakken these days; 89.3% water by mass;

NDIC file report:

• spud: January 20, 2020
• cease drilling: January 29, 2020; 2:57 p.m. CT
• TD: 20,478' MD
• middle Bakken target
• vertical: drilled in two runs with a planned bit trip occurring at 7,642' MD
• KOP reached at 9,480' MD, 1:45 p.m. CT, January 24th, 2020
• curve: drilling commenced at 10:51 p.m. CT January 24, 2020; completed curve at 10,302' MD at 10:11 a.m. January 25, 2020 (again, the standard for drilling the curve in the middle Bakken is about twelve hours; I've seen it done in as few as three hours;
• upper Bakken: gas ranged as high as 2,234 units
• middle Bakken: gas ranged as high as only 808 units
• lateral:
• 20' target window was centered 26" below the top of the middle Bakken, so a seam about 52' thick?
• began: January 26, 2020; 11:02 p.m. CT -- just before midnight
• completed: January 29, 2020: 2:57 p.m -- just after noon
• so, is that about 2.5 days to drill the lateral?

Hess: Remarkable Operator In The Bakken In 2020

Of the six wells coming off confidential list this next week, starting Monday, November 15, 2020, Hess is reporting five wells (I have to go back and check this; this almost seems impossible but right now):

• Monday, November 23, 2020: 25 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 714 for the year
• 37211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1, Tioga,
  

• Sunday, November 22, 2020: 24 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 713 for the year
• 36460, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-2, Manitou,
  

• Friday, November 20, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
• 35711, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H, Grinnell,
  

• Wednesday, November 18, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
• 36462, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-5, Manitou,
  

• Tuesday, November 17 2020: 22 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 711 for the year
• 36532, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1, Alkali Creek,
  
• 36510, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-6, Banks,
  

For newbies:

• I've been seeing this all year -- Hess is still reporting a lot of wells; very, very consistent;
• in the early days of the boom, Hess was not noted for its middle Bakken wells; in the last couple of years, Hess wells are as good as any in the Bakken
• Hess is drilling, in many cases, many oil fields that are not particularly known for good wells in the middle Bakken
• Hess is reporting wells from many different fields; this next week, the five wells that Hess is reporting were drilled in four different fields (Banks, Alkali Creek, Manitou, Tioga)
  

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- November 15, 2020

The wells:

• 37211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	14894	19554
8-2020	13348	12288
7-2020	20390	20727
6-2020	27419	36751
5-2020	9653	12674

• 36460, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-2, Manitou,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	4795	5859
8-2020	11889	14375
7-2020	16014	16697
6-2020	21712	25468
5-2020	11534	9120

• 35711, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H, Grinnell, fracked 3/27/20 - 4/7/20; 5.98 million gallons of water (a small frack); 86.9% water by mass (typical); completion strategies tracked here;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	36333	99592
8-2020	1311	1157

• 36462, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-5, Manitou,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	12710	10353
8-2020	10897	12701
7-2020	18911	22808
6-2020	8954	9059
5-2020	13092	13451

• 36532, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1, Alkali Creek,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	4538	7415
8-2020	32903	39222
7-2020	31956	46685
6-2020	30252	41920
5-2020	39241	3707

• 36510, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-6, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2020	2926	4750
8-2020	1528	834
7-2020	31313	62117
6-2020	33153	57454
5-2020	21879	33317

• 37380, loc/drl,  Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc, J-LOC 1, 
• 36005, loc/NC, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing, Rink/Kermit wells are tracked here;

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 15, 2020

Six months ago: national lockdown -- Chinese flu. 

Monday, November 23, 2020: 25 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 714 for the year
37211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1,

Sunday, November 22, 2020: 24 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 713 for the year
36460, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-2,

Saturday, November 21, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
None.

Friday, November 20, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
35711, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H,

Thursday, November 19, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
None.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
36462, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-5,

Tuesday, November 17 2020: 22 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 711 for the year
36532, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1,
36510, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-6,

Monday, November 16, 2020: 20 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 709 for the year
None.

Sunday, November 15, 2020: 20 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 709 for the year
None.

Saturday, November 14, 2020: 20 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 709 for the year
37380, conf,  Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc, J-LOC 1,
36005, conf, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing, Rink/Kermit wells are tracked here;