The Early Data Is In -- Unless I'm Misreading This -- EVs Had A Great February -- Tesla Did Better Than Expected -- March 1, 2018

Updates

March 5, 2018: cars/week continue to tick down ...

March 3, 2018: terrifying ... Elon Musk ...

March 3, 2018: compare with graphic at bottom of this post --

March 2, 2018:

Original Post 

Sales/deliveries for a few EV makes/models have been reported. It will probably be mid-week next week before we see the full list. But unless I'm missing something, the numbers look pretty good for the EVs:

So, we'll have to wait to see what the pundits say about Tesla's sales. Tesla Model 3 beat out Chevy Bolt and Chevy Volt combined: 2,485 vs 2,407. That surprises me.

Year-over-year:

Last year, February, by far was the worst month for Chevy Bolt, selling only 952 vehicles. Chevy Bolt's best month was December, 2017, selling 3,227 vehicles. Bolt sales my be more sensitive to the month; I don't know. I doubt Tesla deliveries are affected by the month; the backorder number is huge; it's simply a matter of what Tesla can produce.

Having said that, February was one of the better months in 2017 for the Chevy Volt.

We will have to wait a few more months, a few more quarters to get a better picture. For me, right now, it seems a bit muddled and not quite as bad as some of us had forecast -- at least in terms of units sold/delivered.

From a post just a couple of days ago:

Chart of the day:

So, let's see. From the table above, Tesla delivered 4,485 vehicles (S, 3, and X) in February. That works out to about 1,000 cars / week -- exactly what @TeslaCharts forecast.

Random Update On The 2016 Chevrolet Volt -- February 19, 2016; The Chevrolet Now Gets 53 Miles On A Single 4.5 Hour Charge

I can't remember if I posted the EV sales for last month, January, 2016. Here they are:

Compare Chevrolet Volt sales in January, 2016, compared to one year ago, and also with December sales (in graphic below).

But even more interesting, look at the total number of EVs sold in the US in 2015 compared with total number of EVs sold in the US in 2014 (in the very, very small print):

If the print is too small to see, regarding total US EV sales in the past two years:

• in 2014, total US EV sales were 122,438 units
• in 2015, total US EV sales were 116,099 units

Year-over-year, January, 2016, vs January, 2015:

• monthly sales increased marginally year-over-year, from 6,057 to 6,291

For the Chevrolet Volt:

• month-over-month, sales of Chevrolet Volts fell from 2,114 to 996 units
• year-over-over, sales of Chevrolet Volts nearly doubled from 542 units to 996 units

For the Tesla Model S:

• month-over-month, sales of the Tesla Model S fell from 3,600 to 850 units (delivered)
• year-over-over, sales of the Tesla Model S fell from 1,100 to 850 units (delivered)

I track the Chevrolet Volt here.

I was reminded of all this after Don sent me an ad disguised as a story talking about the "new" Chevrolet Volt:

However, the Volt is just several thousand dollars more than one of its major competitors - Ford C-Max Energi - and close to $3,200 more than the Toyota Prius plug-in. It's good to know with all three vehicles that you save $7,500 through a federal income tax incentive and there could be additional state and local incentives as well.

Forget about how the Volt looks. Let's face it, people buy a hybrid for the gas savings. The Volt delivers quite a bit in that department, upping its electricity-only total by 25 percent to a 53-mile range. It takes approximately 41/2 hours to recharge a fully depleted battery (from a 240-volt power). The new gasoline engine gets 42-43 mpg and a full tank should lead to roughly 420 miles.

This would be a great time to post a poll on this. I'm curious. I would love to have an EV. If I had all the money in the world, as they say in this neck of the woods, and a charging station in the garage, I would love to have an EV. It is my understanding these are incredible cars in terms of responsiveness and pleasure to drive.

And that's why I think the focus on gasoline mileage to sell a hybrid is misplaced. If the only reason folks buy a Chevrolet Volt is to save money on gasoline, these folks have not been paying attention.

So, the poll: would you buy an EV/hybrid because you think it's going to save you money on gasoline or because you like the "feel" of an EV compared to a conventional gasoline engine? Obviously most people make their decision based on a combination of factors. But in the "ad" above, the writer says "Let's face it, people buy a hybrid for the gas savings." I'm not so sure that's how Chevrolet should 
 focus the campaign.

In fact, having said that, I'm about ready to nominate the writer of this ad for the 2016 Geico Rock Award for not having noted how inexpensive gasoline is right now and will likely be for quite some time.

But don't let me influence your vote.

Forecast For 3Q15 GDP Drops Again -- October 19, 2015; Job Watch; Maybe Green Energy Jobs Will Move The Needle

Active rigs:

	10/19/2015	10/19/2014	10/19/2013	10/19/2012	10/19/2011
Active Rigs	66	190	184	186	198

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GDPNow:

The GDPNow model nowcast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 0.9 percent on October 14, down from 1.0 percent on October 9. The model's nowcast for real consumer spending growth in the third quarter fell from 3.6 percent to 3.2 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was partly offset by an 0.1 percentage point increase in the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth following this morning's update on retail inventories from the Census Bureau.

It will be interesting to see if new housing data changes the forecast.

U.S. homebuilders have not felt this good about their business in a decade. Sentiment jumped 3 points in October to a level of 64 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The index stood at 54 last October.

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Maybe Green Energy Jobs Will Move The Needle

From "Lackluster" To "Dismal" In One Administration

Is the Labor Department preparing us for some "bad" news? CNBC is reporting:

Evidence is mounting that the jobs recovery's best days are in the rear view mirror.

Recent Labor Department indicators show that the employment market is tightening, with both fewer job openings and workers willing to leave their current jobs for better environs. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, released last week, adds to signs that the market is maturing, and signals to Wall Street that hopes for future blockbuster nonfarm payrolls reports should be tempered.

"Don't expect the employment situation report to print nonfarm payrolls above 200,000 going forward," market strategists at New York-based brokerage Convergex said in a report. "The last two readings fell below that threshold and, unless more highly educated individuals enter the workforce, it's likely to stay there."

Indeed, the most recent payrolls reports have been lackluster, to say the least.

The September number showed just 142,000 new positions created, far less than the more than 200,000 economists had expected. August was even worse, with just 136,000 jobs, and though July's came in at a more respectable 223,000, that number was revised down from 245,000.

Paul Krugman has a solution. More deficit spending.

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Green Energy EVs

Where do we stand on "EVs for the masses?" Yahoo is reporting on the GM Bolt:

• "the Bolt: first EV with the range of a Tesla at a Chevrolet price" -- GM
•  starting price: $37,000 (federal tax credit can bring it down to under $30,000)
• charging times should improve -- a fast-charge might come down to only 45 minutes
• current battery costs: $145/kwh -- close to Tesla's
• by 2020, could fall to $100/kwh
• Tesla's Model 3 will target similar audience as that of the Bolt: $40,000 or less, 200-mile range
• Tesla Model 3 due in 2017, though Tesla usually runs behind schedule
• by the time the Model 3 debuts, the Chevy Bolt should already be on the road

Comments at the link:

• 2015 Ford Fiesta: 50 mpg/commute, $18K vs $30K for a Bolt
• Tesla is building a battery factory for $6 billion; where is GM getting their batteries? possibly here;
• Chevy Spark: $14K; 40 mpg; a lot of free electricity to make the Bolt work
• the US: we ban the use of 40-watt lightbulb but give a huge tax credit for someone buying an EV that siphons 85,000 watt-hours out of one's home
• Chevy Bolt: no charging infrastructure
• 45-minute fast re-charge time on a 250-mile trip?
• wasn't the Tesla Model 3 supposed to come in under $35,000; now it's $40,000
• just in time for $2 gasoline

The New 53-Mile Extended Reach Chevrolet Volt Is Here -- Well, It's Almost Here -- It's On Its Way To Canada (Really?) And California; EV Sales Plummet 27% Year-Over-Year -- September 2, 2015

(Memo to self: is "plum-et" spelled with one "em" or two "em"s?)

Wow, can you believe it! The 2016 Chevrolet Volts are finally here. The second generation, 53-mile extended range Chevy Volts are now on their way to California and Canada. (You might have to scroll to the bottom of that link to find that information).

[It used to go 60 miles on a single charge. See below.]

Well, that's not quite accurate. The 2016 Chevy Volt won't be in "full, national production mode until November."

But wow, 53-mile extended range. 

Back on October 27, 2013 -- almost two years ago, Chevrolet was telling us the Chevrolet Volt could run up to 96 miles on batteries. The link is here if you don't believe me. That story ran for months. And it was never corrected. The headline said 96 miles; the story was 96 kilometers -- a huge, huge difference. Ninety-six kilometers is ... 57.6 miles.

So, this debacle has gone from bad to worse. First, the Chevrolet headline said the first generation Volt could run 96 miles on a single charge, when in fact, that was a misprint (intentional?) -- the first generation Volt could only get 96 kilometers on a single charge, which is about 60 miles.

Now, two years later, they have an extended reach, new and improved Chevrolet that can go ... 53 miles on a single charge.

Are we making progress here? Like the government's revised GDP figures, I guess, pick a number, any number: 53, 60, 96. What does it matter anyway?

Speaking of progress, or lack of progress, buried deep in that link (this one) EV sales for August, 2015, this past month, were .... drum roll ... 27% below sales one year ago.

The very last sentence in that story: "The Chevrolet Volt's strongest sales year was in 2012."

Really? Three years ago.

Thank goodness the 2016, extended reach, 53-mile range new and improved Chevrolet Volt is finally here.

I'm holding out for a Tesla.

First Generation Volt Comes To An End -- April 9, 2015

Idle chatter regarding the Shell story buying BG:

There is more than one story about Shell’s acquisition of a “natural gas” company; pundits see Shell’s transition from an “oil” company to a “natural gas” company as something of a surprise.

Tea leaves: with the news yesterday about a further assault on coal (Bloomberg, Sierra Club) and now this (Shell transitioning to be a “natural gas” company, or at least a different mix) suggests that the transition from coal to natural gas is a bigger story than a lot of us may realize.

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Chariots On Fire Not So Hot

From the print edition of today's WSJ: GM Unplugs First Generation Volt Production

GM will halt production of the Chevrolet Volt electric car for the summer to whittle down about seven months of unsold inventory and smooth the way for the next generation of the plug-in hybrid sedan.

The first Volt went on sale in 2010 with high expectations, but sales have been lackluster amid low gasoline prices and the release of more capable electric models from competitors. GM has sold about 60,000 Volts to date, far below initial company forecasts.

New model (2016):

• sleeker design (for going faster)
• up to 50 miles range (wow)

Other data points:

• GM sold 1,874 Volts during the latest three-month period, equivalent to the number of Silverado pickups sold in a day (and GM Silverado does not sell as many as Ford’s F-150) 
• Volt stocks are enough to last 210 days 

Great news for folks who want to feel good about saving the environment: this is an opportunity to buy a Chevrolet Volt at cost — maybe less.

From Yahoo!Finance:

“The failure is five or six years after this car’s come out you didn’t know exactly what it was,” Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman notes. “GM, as it has done many times, over-hyped [the Volt] from the beginning, made it sound as if it was going to transform the automotive industry. It did nothing of the sort. It’s a niche vehicle at best."

The failure? Let's start with the range: 35 miles.

See also this post.

Let's Start Another Rumor: Statoil Eyes EOG -- March 13, 2015

Houston Business Journal is reporting:

Norway-based Statoil ASA may be pursuing a megadeal to acquire Houston-based EOG Resources Inc. 

Industry chatter online and off picked up in late February that Statoil was targeting EOG in a merger or acquisition that could exceed $50 billion — more than the $35 billion for which Houston-based Halliburton Co.  is buying Baker Hughes Inc. 

Analysts said the deal would make sense for Statoil, which is growing its Houston presence, and seeking to expand in U.S. shale, as EOG is the unofficial king of Texas shale. For EOG, though, it's more a matter of whether the company could be up for sale at all during the ongoing oil slump.

Active rigs in North Dakota:

	3/13/2015	03/13/2014	03/13/2013	03/13/2012	03/13/2011
Active Rigs	112	191	186	203	173

Nine (9) new permits --

• Operators: QEP (6), EOG (3)
• Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:

Permits renewal:

• CLR renewed fourteen (14) Jersey permits but I don't think it changes anything; I track the Jersey permits here
• Oasis renewed one permit, the Ellsberry Federal, in Williams County

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90-Day Flaring Rule 

The Dickinson Press is reporting that conversation groups want the 90-day flaring rule re-instated.

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Not Surprising

Through the grapevine: trucks not hauling much fracking sand from Minnesota, Wisconson. Still some moving by rail.

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Why Does This Not Surprise Me?

Chariots-On-Fire Back In The News

You just can't win. Chevy finally has a car that emits less CO2 but instead emits CO, a much more poisonous colorless, odorless, gas.

Zacks is reporting:

GM is recalling 64,000 Chevrolet Volt hybrid electric cars, per media reports. The automaker is issuing the recall due to the problem of carbon monoxide creation when the vehicle is not shut down by the driver. The company plans to update the software to solve this issue.

I guess that would be just about all the Volts ever sold. 

Correction: only model years 2011 to 2013.

Ah, Yes, An Inconvenient Truth With Regard To EVs -- February 27, 2015; How Bad Is The Slump? CRC Drops Rigs From 27 To 3

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Do not make any financial, investment, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. One big piece of advice: never marry a lawyer named "Sue." Having said that, Barron's is reporting:

California Resources Corporation is rising on Friday, after announcing that the exploration and production company’s board of directors approved a dividend of a penny a share.

It is the first quarterly dividend announced for California Resources since it was spun out from Occidental Petroleum at the start of December. Of course, dividends and capex are being widely watched at energy companies, which have been pulling back amid continued low energy prices. Despite its dividend increase, California Resources otherwise slashed its spending budget for the full year by 80%, announced in its fourth-quarter earnings report last week.

Raymond James’s Pavel Molchanov noted that the budget “all but eliminates shale drilling” and reduces its rig count from 27 in November to just three today.

“It is virtually unheard of for a single operator’s activity to adjust this quickly,” he wrote, but the deep cuts come as the company grapples with debt:

Put simply, CalRe may well end up with the steepest spending cut of any U.S. E&P company in this downcycle…CalRe’s debt/cap ratio of 71% is near the high end of the E&P universe (currently averaging around 50%), a direct consequence of the $6 billion dividend paid to Occidental.

The steep spending cut needs to be seen in that context, and management clearly wants to achieve some deleveraging before organic growth becomes a priority.

For newbies: this is for the archives. I have no financial interest in following this story. I have a huge interest in following this story for reasons I have posted before as it relates to the Bakken. 

This is going to be so much fun. I still think oil and gas investors are going to enjoy 2017, if not 2016. Saudi Arabia is going to look back on 2014 as a watershed year.

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Used EVs A Great Bargain

LOL

This is a great story. I have talked about this issue from "the very beginning." I'm not going to re-hash it. Regular readers know the story. Bottom line, used EVs won't sell:

• gasoline is cheap (and could get much cheaper once Cushing reaches capacity)
• there is an oil glut as far as the uninformed can see
• mileage on new cars keeps getting better and better
• conventional cars keep getting better and better, fancier, and bigger
• batteries don't last forever; most folks assume batteries in EVs might last about seven years
• when gasoline was $5.00/gallon, EVs still did not make economic sense
• gasoline is now $2.00/gallon

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:

Nissan Motor Co. ’s Leaf electric car has been a big seller for Atlanta car dealer Pat Hoban over the past three years, thanks to its low monthly lease price. But as those car leases are beginning to expire amid cheap gasoline, the vehicle is becoming a bit of a headache.

Mr. Hoban expects between 100 and 150 of the leased vehicles to be returned to his Capitol City Nissan dealership on a monthly basis over the next two years as their leases expire. The problem: used Leafs aren’t attracting much demand.

With gas prices down 33% from a year ago, and buyers cooling toward electric vehicles, some auto makers are offering deep discounts or attractive leases on battery-powered vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Nissan, for instance, slashed the price of a new Leaf by $6,400 in 2013 and is now offering a $199-a-month lease, or $3,500 cash back and 0% financing for 72 months, on brand new Leafs.

One can buy a new Honda Civic for about $169/month right now -- a new car for less than leasing a three-year-old Leaf, and there's no comparison between a Leaf and a Honda Civic.

Used cars:

Other electric cars, including plug-in versions of Ford Motor Co. ’s Focus and Toyota Motor Corp. ’s Prius, are depreciating as fast as the Leaf with the average trade-in value in 2014 falling between 22% and 35%, depending on model. The depreciation rate on plug-in electric cars is nearly twice that of a comparable gasoline-engine car.

In December and January the average selling price of a 2012 Nissan Leaf at auction was about $10,000, nearly a quarter of the car’s original list price and down $4,700 from a year earlier.

Three-year-old Volts, a plug-in car with a backup gasoline motor, were selling for an average $13,000 at auction in January, down from about $40,000 excluding the federal tax credit.

Resale values “have been crushed on these cars,” said Chris Coleman, co-founder of Carlypso, an online used-car shopping site. “As a used-car value, they’re an absolute bargain.”

And that's the problem: a used car salesman telling me a used Volt is an absolute bargain but not telling me a) when a new battery will be needed; b) how far a charge on an aging battery will take me; c) how much a new battery will cost me; and, d) who replaces the batteries.

Tesla, too, might be "over-building." It is generally reported that Tesla builds to demand -- when an order comes in they build -- and they are behind in meeting demand. A writer over at SeekingAlpha suggests that Tesla has "time" to build cars on speculation they will find a buyer -- meaning that they are keeping up with demand, and simply not selling as fast as they can produce. 

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iCloud

After the recent near-miss -- thinking I had a hard drive crash -- I started looking into whether I should have a better back-up process in place (rather than external hard drive) and so I started looking into iCloud.

Setting up iCloud was one of the easiest things I've ever done, but it was like following the proverbial rabbit down the proverbial rabbit hole. Every time I thought I was done, there was, as Steve Jobs might say, "one more thing to do."

This is the process: perhaps through Google I found iCloud (I forget how I found iCloud but Google is always the fastest). (But now that I've found it, it's bookmarket. LOL.)

All I really wanted to do was store my photos on iCloud and possibly one file folder of documents. Pretty simple.

It turns out I already had an iCloud account (free), an Apple ID, and a password, set up some years ago and it all still worked. I still had $1.87 in my iTunes account which hasn't changed for about three years, I suppose.

But I was surprised that my operating system "10.8.something" was not sufficient; I had to upgrade to "10.10 Yosemite" -- something I  had put off for months for various reasons, but now I had no choice. So at 11:00 p.m. last night when my internet is working best I started the download. It took about an hour. I watched old Seinfeld DVDs.

I was surprised how well Yosemite worked.

Then to load the photos. Another surprise. I could not access iPhoto because it also had to be upgraded. At midnight, I was not about to start another upgrade, so this morning, at Starbucks, that's the first thing I did, start the iPhoto download. That also took about an hour, and the bad news: there is no bar showing update status; you just have to have faith that something is happening.

And then, there it was, a notification that the installation was complete. My photos are there. Awesome.

Monday, Part 2, -- February 9, 2015; Tesla Hires More Employees From Apple Than Any Other Company

Wow, that makes me feel better -- the market is down 100 points but according to Yahoo!Finance the market is reacting to Greece's insanity, not to the fact that Germany and France are on the brink of war with Russia over the Ukraine. Yes, that's a relief. Drudge, last night, certainly implied we were on the brink of war.

I think I saw somewhere that oil was rising again. I mentioned to someone over the weekend, oil prices can rise just as fast as they fell -- and sometimes faster.

Some interesting headlines -- WARNING! WARNING! SPOILER ALERT! -- This is NOT an investment site. See disclaimer -- as I was saying, there are some interesting headlines coming out of Apple. For starters:

• Apple may release a faster new MacBook Air this month
• Apple said to hire banks for first sale of Swiss Franc bonds
• Apple plans debut Swiss Franc bond sale

I'm holding out for Apple Greek bonds -- LOL.

For those who don't know, the MacBook Air is the laptop that is a) thinner than a sheet of paper; and b) faster than a speeding bullet because a) it has no hard drive; and, b) it has no fans. My wife has one of the early versions of the MacBook Air (I use the MacBook Pro). It is incredible how fast her Air is compared to my laptop. Amazing. I can't imagine it being faster.

But for me, the big story is the "Apple-Swiss-franc-bonds' story. Didn't the Swiss just "unpeg" their franc from the Euro? Yup. This tells me Tim Cook is reading The Economist.

On a completely different note, this was the first independent ad-free blog that predicted that Netanyahu would not shop in Washington (which reminds me, Lyin' Brian won't be showing up for his scheduled Letterman visit later this week) as planned -- yeah, I see the typo, "shop in Washington." Freudian. Actually that was not a typo. Netanyahu would have been going shopping: shopping for political support and shopping for military hardware, though the Israelis are pretty good at building their own. Actually, I think they are really, really good at modifying the F-16s they get from the US. Anyway, now this from the AP: Israeli leader faces pressure to cancel US Congress speech. An article last week suggested he might not come: his minders and press secretary whining that they were not aware that the DEMS in Congress did not like Mr Boehner. Hello! Spoiler Alert! No one likes Mr Boehner.

As long as we're not keeping to any theme this morning, let's take a look at this headline from BloombergBusiness: Mercedes Sets January U.S. Sales Record Adding Entry-Lux Buyers:

Mercedes-Benz, the top-selling luxury-auto brand in the U.S. in 2013, started out this year in the lead with record January sales as carmakers broaden their lineups to bring in younger buyers.

The Daimler AG unit sold 22,604 vehicles last month, 103 more than a year earlier, led by the new entry-level CLA car, according to a statement yesterday. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s BMW, surpassed by Mercedes in 2013, reported an 11 percent gain to 18,253.

Mercedes and BMW are among luxury-auto makers expanding with lower-cost models. Sales of entry-level cars and SUVs represent 67 percent of the U.S. luxury market and probably will keep growing this year, Bloomberg Industries forecasts.

Mercedes will benefit from a full year of its CLA, which starts at $29,900, a refreshed C-Class and a new GLA small sport-utility vehicle, while BMW is introducing a $33,025 2-Series coupe. 

I think our 2012 Honda Civic, base model with no extras, was $24,000, or thereabouts. A CLA at $29,000. I remember my boss getting excited with her new "Baby Benz" (C230?) back in the late 80's or 90's when we were stationed in Germany.

As good as Mercedes is, the story over at Audi, apparently, is even better. Reuters reports that Audi beat Mercedes with record January sales.

For the record, in January:

• Tesla: #1 in deliveries in US -- an estimate
• Volt: Chevrolet Volt Sales Plunge In January 2015 To Just 542 Units – Thanks Next Gen!; Volt has worst sales month since August, 2011; Nissan Leaf also down. 
• Leaf: Nissan Leaf Sales fall in January for first time in 2 years in US
• Prius: "on par with last year's results" -- in other words,  no growth despite a huge January for Toyota

But the EV folks never give up:

During the month, only Tesla and Nissan remained in “4 digits” for sales as the seasonal pullback (due to weather/tax implications of the $7,500 credit) and pressure from future EV offerings pushed the results lower compared to December.

Overall, an estimated 5,924 plug-ins were bought in January, as compared to the 5,550 sold a year ago. And while this is not a significant increase (6.7%) overall, and is certainly trailing the 23% improvement in 2014, this month’s [EV sales] number can only be considered a success.

"...this month's EV sales number can only be considered a success..." must have been written by the Agore/Brian Williams team.

We saw a Volt this morning, on the way to Starbucks, here in the DFW metroplex. Looked really, really nice. I understand they are really, really responsive and really, really fun to drive. I have nothing against EVs; it's the myth that coal-burning cars are better for the environment than oil-burning cars that bothers me. By the way, have we ever seen a story of a Hollywood celebrity getting into a big accident while driving an EV and being chased by Papa Razzi? I can't recall.

Oh, that reminds me. This is a big story. I've talked about this often but generally not connecting the dots. The dots were connected over the weekend. The dots: a) Apple's biggest challenge is the "battery issue; b) Tesla is a battery company disguised as an automobile company.

Connecting those two dots, I saw this story in Bloomberg Businessweek over the weekend:

Doug Field never considered leaving Apple. From the summer of 2008 to the fall of 2013, Field, a former chief technology officer for Segway and development engineer for Ford, oversaw product and hardware design, working on the MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, and the iMac. He earned a generous salary and was excited by the work. Then Elon Musk and Tesla Motors came calling, and Field agreed to become vice president of its vehicle program.

In the October 2013 announcement of his hiring, Field said joining Tesla was “an opportunity for me and many others to pursue the dream of building the best cars in the world—while being part of one of the most innovative companies in Silicon Valley.”

He likely won’t be the last Apple executive poached by Tesla. The company has hired at least 150 former Apple employees, more than from any other company, even carmakers.

The former Apple staffers work in many areas of the 6,000-employee automaker, including engineering and law. “From a design philosophy, [Apple] is relatively closely aligned,” says Musk, Tesla’s co-founder and chief executive officer. Apple declined to comment for this story.

Google tesla apple. One can lead horses to water but can't make them drink. See disclaimer. 

Of course, I have the story exactly backwards. But that's fine.

Friday, First Day Of August, 2014 -- Now, Into The Summer Doldrums; $5 Gasoline? Ford SUV Explorer July Sales Surge 32%; 250-Day Supply For Cadillac ELR

Active rigs:

	8/1/2014	08/01/2013	08/01/2012	08/01/2011	08/01/2010
Active Rigs	193	178	207	183	143

RBN Energy: the road to New England -- update on New England preparing for this winter.

Early morning trading: as a rule I don't check the market, or report on the market, during significant declines (like the one we had yesterday) unless I plan to buy something. I did take advantage of the decline yesterday and bought back into a Bakken operator that I had sold a while back. I have not checked on what it is doing today; it was such a nice opportunity yesterday, I don't plan to sell these shares for a long, long time, so it doesn't matter what it does today. I won't be reporting on the market today, or even checking in on it, except perhaps at the end of the day to see how it did. I do have a lot of thoughts -- all positive -- about market action yesterday but my opinion and $1.75 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. COP and ENB do report earnings today, for those interested. If I remember, I will check on them next week when the dust settles (hopefully) and post that data at the earnings page for archival purposes.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Briefly: The transload facility, the first part of the Three Affililated Tribes' Thunder Butte Petroleum Services Inc. refinery project west of Makoti, will be finished this fall, said Tex Hall, tribal chairman; reported by The Minot Daily News.

Several new posts overnight: wells coming off confidential list today have been posted; August NDIC hearing dockets agenda and highlights has been posted

The UN "condemns" Israel for not sharing" its Iron Dome anti-ballistic missile protection system with the terrorist organization, Hamas. This should not be surprising. The UN is helping Hamas store rockets in UN schools, hospitals, and refugee "safe" sites. When the rockets are discovered at these sites by the Israeli military, they are turned into Palestinian/UN officials, who then return these rockets to their owners: Hamas. I can't make this up.

Car sales: I think I read somewhere earlier in July that it was the expectation that July, 2014, would set all kinds new records for automobile sales. Ford reports:

• July sales for Ford increased 10 percent; best July performance in eight (8) years
• Ford Fusion posted a record July sales month, up 17 percent
• huge: Ford Explorer sales increased 32 percent
• Ford Escape posted best July with a 19 percent sales increase
• Ford F-series again topped 60,000-vehicle mark; up 5 percent
• Lincoln sales increased 14% 

Car sales, Chevy Volt: For the Volt, the 2,020 units sold represents a 13 percent increase from July of 2013 even though year-to-date sales are down 8.7 percent this year compared to last year. Overall, total Chevrolet deliveries for July 2014 were up eight percent compared to 2013, so the Volt was a bright spot for the Bowtie brand last month. Unfortunately, the Volt is one of two plug-in cars on the market today that are still showing year-over-year declines. 

Car sales, Cadillac ELR:

In total 188 ELRs were sold – almost double their previous high set last month when 97 copies where sold.

Year to date totals have now hit 578 units! [At 578 units over seven months, these cars should be custom-built by master craftsmen.]

This month result also brings some sanity to the “days inventory” number that had been well north of 500 for the past few months.  While 250 days worth of ELRs on hand is still not all that great, it is far closer to norm.

*******************************

A Note for the Granddaughters 

We had a great day yesterday. A friend recommended The Nethercutt Collection and that's where we spent the day. 

We lived fourteen years overseas and have seen most of the US. For the "WOW" factor, I'm not sure anything can beat The Netercutt Collection.

I will go again; I assume I will go at least once every year, maybe even twice a year. It is simply true pleasure. I had not heard of it until it was recommended, and even long-time residents of Los Angeles have not heard of it.

Nethercutt and his wife died in 2004, after 71 years of marriage. They were high school sweethearts; they died within a couple months of each other. I think he was 91 years old. Don't quote me on that.

In his "coming of age" years he moved out to California to live with his aunt, Merle Nethercutt Norman; the two of them developed the Merle Normal cosmetics company. Early in life he and his wife decided, for whatever reason, to restore an old car. From there it took off.

At one time, I thought the drive out to the valley would have been a long drive, but once one gets to the turn-off to the Getty Museum (which we visit frequently), it's clear sailing on the "405" and just 15 more miles. The Nethercutt is right off the freeway; easy access. Free parking and the museum and the guided tour is free. In fact, everything is free; no museum store. One can buy a hardcover coffee table book of the museum at the front desk for $35. No tax. It's a non-profit. The cars are the draw, but there is much, much more there.

One needs reservations for the guided tour: a simple e-mail gets you a reservation. The group is relatively small; the group seems unwieldly at first but once you get inside the "cavernous" showroom, there is more than enough room to spread out. Photographs are encouraged; but no flash in some areas, and no video at all, anywhere.

Unlike most such collections, everything in this collection was owned by the Nethercutts and is now owned by the foundation. Nothing is on loan. In addition, and this is most surprising: everything works. Every car is taken out at least once a year to be driven. Cars are taken to car shows every year where they compete and win. Also, most recently, 2013:

A 1968 Ford GT40 owned by the Rocky Mountain Auto Collection of Bozeman, Mont., was named Best in Show Concours de Sport, while a 1936 Duesenberg SJN, owned by The Nethercutt Collection of Sylmar, CA, took the Best in Show Concours de Elegance.

Nethercutt took first place with the first car he ever restored:

In 1956, J.B. purchased two cars: a 1936 Duesenberg Convertible Roadster for $5,000 and a 1930 DuPont Town Car for $500, both needing total refurbishing. The DuPont restoration, which J.B. estimated would take a few weeks, instead took 18 months and over $65,000. By 1958, his meticulously rebuilt project claimed its first prize — the coveted “Best of Show” award at the prestigious Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance. By the summer of 1992, his cars had won the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance six times, more than any other individual. The Duesenberg and the DuPont are still part of The Nethercutt Collection.

The Duesenberg? An American car. A Duesenberg won the very first Indianapolis 500, average speed, I believe was 60 mph. Again, don't quote me on that. Information overload yesterday but I got the book.

***********************************

Farmer's Market

The Nethercutt Collection closes at 4:30 p.m. and heading back into west Los Angeles would have put us right into rush hour traffic, so we got off the "405" at Getty Drive, and took surface streets (Sepulveda and Wilshire) to Farmer's Market.  The drive down Wilshire is a tough grind at rush hour, but I had great company and it's always fun to see what's going on in that area of town. The huge water main that broke a day or two before occurred several blocks to the north, so I don't think traffic on Wilshire was affected. I was impressed how courteous/smart LA drivers are in that area, particularly not blocking intersections. Folks were able to make left turns at non-regulated intersections due to courteous driving by others.

Farmers Market was much less busy on a Thursday compared to our visit on a weekend a couple of weeks ago. Yes, we had dinner again at the Brazilian churrascaria. Not much new at Barnes and Noble. Apple not so busy.  Traffic at 8:30 p.m. fairly heavy getting out of the downtown area but once we were on La Cienega it moved nicely. Just as you get to that area, we noted the streets are named after the first few US presidents: Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Cienega.

Cienega's first name was "La" I guess, perhaps short for Larry.

***********************************

$5.00 Gasoline

And, yes, the price of the least expensive grade of gasoline in downtown Los Angeles, west side, is well over $5.00/gallon but still under $5.49. 

Without question, $5.00-gasoline is a huge drag on the economy. 

But Does The Ignition Switch Work?

Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

This is not your daddy’s Caddy. As with most electric cars, the ELR’s acceleration was instantaneous — think the Millennium Falcon with wheels. It hugged the curves like it was never going to see them again. Driving the thing, I alternated between giddy exhilaration and sheer terror.

But while the ELR is indeed a Cadillac, it appears to be built for speed, not comfort. We could feel every bump in the road, and everything inside the cab felt cramped or in the wrong place. My 6-foot-3-inch son had to fold himself into origami to fit into the back seat. And with a base price of $75,000, the ELR was out of reach as a way to assuage my ongoing midlife crisis. It’s a fun ride, but these thrills ain’t cheap.

A few years ago, after we test drove a Chevy Volt for a week (the Volt shares a lot of tech with the ELR) and loved it, we vowed that our next car would not be a carbon-belching fossil-fuel-devouring beast. Even with the federal tax credit for purchasing an electric vehicle, though, the Volt was still just a bit too rich for our blood. And the Caddy is twice the price of the Volt.

More:

There are essentially three kinds of electric car, and they all come with gotchas.

Most plug-in electric hybrids like the Volt and the ELR can run for up to 40 miles on a single battery charge before they switch over to a gas-powered engine.

There are duel-fuel hybrids like the standard Toyota Prius and the Infiniti Q50, which use batteries and a motor to augment the gas engine while starting and idling, increasing your mileage by roughly 25 percent, but they’re still primarily internal combustion vehicles (there’s a plug-in version of the Prius, too).

Then there are all-electric vehicles like the Nissan LEAF and the Tesla Model S, which need to be recharged every 80 to 260 miles. They’re emission free on your commute, but you’ll need to plan your road trips carefully.

The inconvenient truth:

In 2015, car makers will be introducing more than 20 electric vehicles of one type or another. Yet they’re unlikely to have much of an impact on the environment, or the car market, says Gary Gauthier, director of transportation at NextEnergy, a nonprofit consortium created to promote alternative energy technologies and policies in the state of Michigan.

The reason? The total cost of ownership for a gas guzzler is far less than for an electric vehicle, he says. Unless some dramatic new technology emerges — or the price of gas hits $10 a gallon — that’s how it will remain for the foreseeable future.

“If not for government regulations, electric vehicles would not even exist,” says Gauthier, who says after 48 years in the auto industry he’s seen every possible alternative to gasoline but has yet to find one that’s actually viable. (He may also be the most cynical person I’ve ever interviewed; Gauthier prefers the term "realistic.") The media has overhyped EVs, he adds, but people vote with their pocketbooks — one reason why fewer than 5 percent of all cars sold in 2013 run on anything other than fossil fuels.

And the article simply gets worse from there. It's a must-read article. 

Update On EVs

Updates

May 29, 2014: Toyota may be getting out of the battery business. 24/7 Wall Street is reporting:

But not everyone considers a battery-operated automotive future to be a done deal. And when I say “not everyone,” I’m not just talking about cranks – I’m talking about some big names.

Like Toyota.

Few companies know more about battery-powered cars than Toyota. The company’s Prius is far and away the world’s best-selling hybrid. Toyota has built over 6 million hybrids to date. And the Japanese automaker is a big investor in Tesla.

Toyota has spent 20 years trying to create a viable mass-market battery-electric vehicle.  But lately, the company has hinted that it has given up the effort.

Toyota North America chief Jim Lentz recently told Automotive News that the company doesn’t see battery-electric vehicles as a viable mass-market proposition.

Lentz said the technology is only viable in “a select way, in short range vehicles that take you that extra mile, from the office to the train, or home to the train, as well as being used on large campuses.”

For a primary vehicle intended for longer-range travel, Toyota feels there are better alternatives, like hybrids. And like fuel cells, the technology the company is investing heavily in now.

May 29, 2014: April, 2014, plug-in electric vehicle sales report card. 

• For the year, Chevrolet has now sold 5,154 plug-ins, which is down 7.1% from 2013 when 5,550 were moved.
• For April 2,088 LEAFs were sold, a 7.8% improvement over last year when 1,936 were moved off dealer lots.
• This result comes hot on the heels of March’s impressive result as Nissan set an almost all-time monthly best for the LEAF with 2,507 sold…just 22 short of the record set previously in December. 
• Cadillac ELR:

There is a story brewing here and it goes something like this: “There is a lot of darn inventory and the car is not selling.”

With almost 2,000 ELRs sitting on lots ready to be bought, just 61 were sold.  (Don’t do the “selling days math”, it is ugly).

This “Oh hello inventory!” story has now been in play since February as massive amounts (relatively speaking) of ELRs started to arrive at the 60% of dealers that didn’t “opt out” of selling the plug-in Cadillac for fear of low demand throughout the month. 

In March just 81 ELRs were sold.Thankfully, this inventory level for the ELR should only go down from here as GM has reportedly wound down full scale production of the luxury plug-in coupe. It appears that the heady $75,995 price tag is just too much to expect for the plug-in Caddy, and we suspect that big reductions will be needed in the future to move product; although we do like the look of their $699/month lease deal a lot better than the big MSRP headline number.

Original Post 

Flashback: in the showroom -- 

Prospective buyer: wow, nice looking car? How far can you drive on a full charge?

Salesman: 38 miles.

Prospective buyer: 38 miles/gallon?

Salesman: No, a total of 38 miles per full electric charge.

Prospective buyer: Say what?

Salesman: Well, that is an increase from 35 miles the previous year?

Prospective buyer: you mean from 2013?

Salesman: no, the 2013 model increased its range from 35 to 38 miles from the year before. The model you are looking at stayed the same. No improvements. But the tax breaks are better. And, hey, we will send a technician out to your house and install $2,000 worth of charging equipment in your garage.

Prospective buyer: I don't have a garage; I live in a high rise. By the way, are they still catching on fire? You know, I would never want to put a Volt in my garage. If I had one.

***************************************

I was reminded of that August 6, 2013, post after Don sent me the following article. Investor's Business Daily is reporting:

Today's electric vehicle driving ranges, recharge times and high purchase prices are stumbling blocks for people who might otherwise buy an EV, a new study says.

While high-end Tesla Motors (TSLA) is selling all the plug-in Model S sedans it can make, expected to be more than 35,000 this year worldwide, General Motors and Nissan have had to discount sale prices and leases to move the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid and Nissan Leaf plug-in EV. In the U.S., GM sold only 3,606 Volts in Q1, while Nissan sold just 5,184, though that was a 46% jump for the Leaf from the year-earlier quarter.

Electric vehicle sales have largely failed to meet manufacturers' sales expectations because their capabilities and features fall short of customer expectations, research firm TechnoMetrica concludes, but it says the outlook for the EV market is improving.

Three comments/questions:

• how long have "we" been pushing EVs? Has it been 20 years? A: 24 years. See below.
• the Tesla? for the ultra-rich, as a show-vehicle, and to feel good; not mass market by any means
• remember GM's goal: 45,000 Volts/year?

The answer to that first question, from wiki:

In January 1990, General Motors' President introduced its EV concept two-seater, the "Impact", at the Los Angeles Auto Show. That September, the California Air Resources Board mandated major-automaker sales of EVs, in phases starting in 1998. From 1996 to 1998 GM produced 1117 EV1s, 800 of which were made available through three-year leases.

For at least thirteen families, it would have been nice had GM spent as much time fixing an ignition switch (the fix: $1.00) as they did on the Volt. 

The last question: does Algore drive an EV? Ever?

*****************************

The Fed Vs Obama

I am so happy to have read Sylvia Nasar's book on economics. I really feel I have a better understanding of macroeconomics. There's a chapter on FDR and social security. The worst thing that a government can do during a depression/recession is to impose a big new tax, and that's exactly what FDR/social security did. The author's contention (based on experts) is that the recession/depression was extended several years longer in the US than in Europe because of social security coming on-line. Very interesting.

It seems with ObamaCare we are repeating that very history. Social Security was mandated, automatic withholding, no chance of evasion, no delay. Perhaps the reason the US did not experience a double-dip recession due to ObamaCare was because it really was such a failure on initial execution. Obama and the nation might have dodged a silver bullet only because his web page designers were so inept, and the whole program was delayed indefinitely -- in reality, if not "on paper." 

Electric Vehicles -- Why They Will Never Be Mainstream In My Investing Lifetime; GM Appears To Be Outsourcing Ad-Writing To The Chinese ... Or The Nigerians

 Updates

September 2, 2015: the new 2016 Chevrolet Volts are here. They were designed with Boston in mind. See original post: the average Boston driver drives 49 miles/day. GM designed the new Chevrolet Volt to meet the needs of the average Boston drive with four miles to spare. The new 2016 Chevrolet Volt has a range of 53 miles. Four miles more than necessary; one hopes the grocery store is on the way home, and there are no unexpected detours. LOL.

Original Post

 

I see this "Chevrolet Volt" ad, disguised as a news article, is still being posted on the internet. Here's a screen shot of this ad:

The headline caught my attention: range of 96 miles. Which, of course, cannot possibly be true. Then I saw the narrative, which is accurate: 80 - 96 km. At best, that is less than 60 miles and at worse, only 48 miles. I assume one gets 48 miles in city; 60 miles on the highway (going downhill with a tailwind).

I saw this "ad" a long time ago. In fact, I think I even linked it without the screenshot. I posted it again, because I was surprised the US government hasn't called GM out on false advertising,  but as but as a "news story," typographical errors are allowed. LOL. That is the loophole. Interesting, huh.

Now, just to spice up this story a bit. Think of the city that fits this profile: a) noted for its innovation; b) noted for 25 universities and colleges in its metropolitan footprint; c) noted for "going green"; d) noted for being one of the most densely settled cities in the US; e) it loves bicycles; f) it loves ZipCars.  Any city that would fit that profile should be a natural for electric vehicles, one would think. 

The city: Boston.

One would think that Boston would be a natural fit for electric vehicles. It turns out that 20% of Boston's metropolitan driving demographic drives an average of 29 miles per day, thus a great fit for electric vehicles, for day use.

The other side of the coin: 80% of Boston's metropolitan driving demographic averages 48 miles or more per day which means the Volt is inadequate for 80% of the Boston driving demographic.

If the Volt is inadequate in Boston, it cannot possibly be adequate anywhere else, including New York City.

The electric vehicle will have a niche in the US, mostly among the ultra-rich, like Jay Leno, who will buy a $200,000 electric Lamborghini or a $100,000 Tesla as a car to sit polished in the garage for an occasional outing, but electric vehicles will not be mainstream in my investing lifetime.

A random note: the averages are skewed down because many folks do not drive their cars on a daily basis, taking public transportation. In addition, even those folks who do drive, are like to take public transportation or walk during the day, thus keeping the mileage down. It is likely that close to 90% of folks who drive a car in the Boston area drive in excess of the 48 mile-range of the Chevrolet Volt.

Of course, the 120-mph Tesla will easily go more than 48 miles in Boston suburbs -- at 25 mph. LOL.

The screenshot of the driving patterns in Boston was taken from The Hub's Metropolis: Greater Boston's Development from Railroad Suburbs to Smart Growth, James C. O'Connell, c. 2013. This, book, by the way, is an incredibly good book, one I highly recommend for anyone who would enjoy a history of Boston.

By the way, if you've read this far, you might as well read the rest of the post. Go back to that "ad" disguised as a news story. Here is a quote from the narrative: "GM says that the model should be between 80 and 96 km of autonomy that option and can reach even more. The change is part of a strategy to make more attractive the electric Chevrolet. In studies, GM was found that 80% of drivers rotating hybrid on average less than 64 km per day, showing that the potential exists to increase."

It looks like GM outsourced their marketing / ad-writing to the Chinese, where English is not their first language. If anyone can tell me what "80% of drivers rotating hybrid on average less than 64 km per day" even means, please let me know.

Reader Comments

After posting the above note, I received this note:

[The ad is incorrect;] however [your] electric car premise is incorrect IMHO.  I own a Toyota Rav4EV (which uses the Telsa drive train from their base model bolted onto a Rav4 body.   I bought it in May and have not driven my "other" car which is a 1991 Nissan Pathfinder on more than a few occasions since then.

I live in the Bay Area (Fremont) and work in Mountain View, 20 miles from my house (it takes 13-16 miles of "electric range" to get there by the way).  

The Rav4 has 103 miles of range according to the EPA, and 125 miles or so in "reality" (like with gas cars, the EPA rating is pessimistic for electrics).

The key to getting electric cars out there is more for gas car drives to experience driving one for two reasons

  - 1) range anxiety is something you get over. Yes, you have to "refuel" the car more often, but also, when you're driving your gas powered car, most people aren't used to the idea that you can know, fairly exactly, when the car will stop. I "routinely" drive my electric car until it has only 5 miles of range left. I never did that when I drove a gas car. The difference being, you develop trust in the range monitoring, and you learn where the refueling points are, and how much range you "need to have" to pass one without stopping.   Its easier than you think, especially if you've never owned or used an electric vehicle. 

 - 2) the driving experience is awesome. Having 100% of your torque available at any speed is killer in traffic. If you liked driving a muscle car, you'll love driving an electric (except for the lack of engine noise - sorry...) The cars just "move."  No turbo lag, no waiting around.  Power at the speed of light, so to speak.  (This by the way is why Tesla is selling everything they can make).

So investing thesis:

  - this is the point of your blog post so let's get back there....

1) i suppose I've already made back more than half the cost of my electric vehicle because I bought Tesla stock before I bought the car. Now, Tesla is over-valued, because it has become a "Wall Street Fashion."  I've sold half, now I'm waiting to sell the other half.

2) if other metro areas follow Northern California (where electric cars are selling like hotcakes because we have a lot of charger infrastructure in a "relatively" dense area (not as dense as Boston or New York, but fairly dense), then there will be investing opportunities.  (One can imagine charging infrastructure for sure, as "workplaces" adopt charging.   Google has "hundreds" of car chargers now, and more are needed constantly due to the # of employees driving electric now.

One can expect other workplaces to follow.    It is a much cheaper benefit than Healthcare :-)

I'll be the first to say that the "price" of electric cars has been a barrier in the past, but you're missing a trend here.   Most manufacturers (who aren't Tesla) are now "discounting" their electric cars.   You can get a Rav4EV for instance, in California for a net price of like $35K "and you can lease it on favorable terms."   (Toyota is pushing the lease option).  I got $10K off list price when I bought mine for instance (and the deals have gotten better since then).  Plus Nissan is discounting on the leaf.

This means, yes, there's a resistance to electric cars from people who don't own them, but they're being priced to sell.  And the number I see on the freeways is growing like mad.   There's something magic about the $30Kish price point.  Once you get down there, everything sells - probably because it's not that much different than a gas car at that point, and the economics of not having to buy gas start working there.  (Plus in California, we still subsidize a little - $2500 on each purchase of an all-electric car).

I think we're 1-2 years away from manufacturers figuring out the price point/range combination that works (my guess is 100km @ 30K will sell, 100 "miles" at 30K would fly out of the showrooms).

Tesla made the huge bet by selling an expensive, 300 mile-range car.  It worked, because they can sell them to the 1% (which is still, a lot of people and a lot of cars.  The top 1% of wage earners is still > 1 million people, they all drive cars and Tesla only makes 20K cars/year.    Not hard to do that math.

To be mainstream though, the 30K/100 mile criteria is where I bet the market is going.

I replied that I cannot disagree with any of the points, except that at $50K (where prices are not subsidized), EVs are too expensive (for mainstream), which was also noted above. EVs have a niche, and folks can make a lot of money investing in some manufacturers, but EV's won't become mainstream in my investing lifetime (10 more years).

Nothing was mentioned about resale value and need to replace batteries after several years. My hunch is that most commuters will keep their EVs for the life of the battery.

Like Apple Inc. vs Microsoft the debate between all-EVs and conventional gasoline engines has become "a religious debate." Both sides have great points, and we will know ten years from now how this all works out.

Those folks who invested in Tesla earlier, did well. Those folks who invested in the "list of 38" did not do quite so well, at least if they held on to their investment too long.

By the way, for investors there is a very, very good point raised by the reader: Tesla is selling its power train to other manufacturers. I was unaware of this. This is a very, very interesting point, and why I love to blog.

Well, Which Is It?

This is the headline: Next Chevrolet Volt can run up to 96 miles on batteries.

This the story:

The next generation of the Chevrolet Volt will be more efficient, longer running in all-electric mode. GM says that the model should be between 80 and 96 km of autonomy that option and can reach even more. The change is part of a strategy to make more attractive the electric Chevrolet. In studies, GM was found that 80% of drivers rotating hybrid on average less than 64 km per day, showing that the potential exists to increase.

I'm confused. Which is it? 96 miles or 96 kilometers?

Big difference.

Remember: headlines are not written by the guy who writes the article.

The story itself, which appears to be a paid advertisement, says the Volt "... can reach even more." Well, if it can, why don't they say "how much more"?

Wow, Was I Wrong! This Is Really Bad; I Apologize For Being So Wrong

A couple days ago I suggested that GM was losing $5,000/Chevy Volt so what did it matter if they lost another $5,000/Chevy Volt (announcement that GM lowered the price of the Volt).

Wow, I did not know I was so wrong. I was off by $45,000.

Via CarpeDiem, Investor's Business Daily is reporting:

Nearly a year ago General Motors was losing almost $50,000 for each Chevrolet Volt it built. Now GM's business model, driven by trendy environmentalism, calls for it to cut the price and lose even more money.

The article does not say what GM will lose on each Volt sold when it lowers the price on the 2014 model. The article did note, however [my comments in brackets]:

Sales of the Volt, the most popular electric vehicle, were only a little more than half of the 45,000 that GM expected last year. Ford built 1,627 Focus Electrics in 2012 and sold only 685 of them. [wow]

Foreign makers fared no better. Mitsubishi could sell only 600 of its i-MiEVs while Nissan sold fewer than 800 of its Leafs last year. Sales in 2013 remained stagnant until Nissan cut the price by $6,400 early in the year.

Yes, Tesla seems to be doing well. But remember: It makes a luxury car that appeals to the wealthy who buy them as toys. It's an outlier. [I talked about this the other day.]

The article did not mention "chariots on fire."

Demand Is So Great, GM Cuts The Price On The Volt; Already Losing $5,000/Car, What's Another $5,000; Range Extended From 35 Miles To 38 Miles Last Year Won't Be Duplicated -- I Can't Make This Stuff Up

The timing is very interesting. (By the way, the linked article at PlugInCars reads like a GM press release).

I posted this about a week ago (July 30, 2013);

BMW launches its first mass-production electric car, and it doesn't cost much more than the Volt.

... the auto maker's first mass-production electric car, saying his company would need to boost sales of plug-in and battery electric vehicles dramatically by 2025 to meet regulatory requirements.

The BMW i3 is expected to go on sale in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2014 where it is expected to be priced at $41,350 before federal tax and other incentives. An optional "range extender"—a small gasoline motor—will likely boost the price tag to $45,000.

Personally, I still don't see the market for these high-priced, short-range, automobiles. I think consumers are going to get incredible deals, especially in leasing when these automobiles all hit the market.  Apparently these BMWs will compete with the Tesla S, another hot-selling electric car, priced at $65,000. I honestly don't get it. Of course, I walk or ride a bike whenever I can.

Yup. Volt got spooked by BMW. PlugInCars is reporting (as noted above, it sounds like a GM press release; my comments in brackets):

General Motors has announced it will drop the price of the base model Chevrolet Volt by $5,000 when the 2014 model year goes on sale later this summer.

Now in its third year of production, the popular [LOL] range-extended [LOL] electric car will now start at just $34,995, including a mandatory $810 destination fee, placing it within reach of more Americans than ever before.

That’s before taking into account any federal or state incentives. For example, the combined $7,500 federal tax credit and $1,500 rebate for plug-in owners in California drops the effective price of a new 2014 Volt to $25,994. Those in Colorado will be able to drive off the dealer's lot with $6,000 in state and $7,500 in federal tax credits, reducing the effective price to a staggering $21,495 and making it effectively cheaper [and "cheaper" is the correct use of the word] than a base-model 2013 Chevrolet Malibu in that state.

Unlike the 2013 model year, which received a slightly larger battery pack, an increase in EPA-approved all-electric range from 35 miles to 38 miles, some trim upgrades and some new color options, changes for the 2014 model are minimal.

That last sentence is hard to parse: note how they hid the fact that the "extended range" was for last year, not this year. And that extended range was from 35 miles to 38 miles.

Let's see. I can go out and buy a 2013 Chevy Volt for $39,995, or I can wait for the BMWi "which is expected to be priced at $41,350 before federal tax and other incentives" -- which means less expensive than $41,000 and the VERY SAME PRICE FOR A CHEVY VOLT.

Chevy Volt. BMWi. Decisions, decisions, decisions.

Not.

This is a no-brainer. German technology. US pricing. Gotta love it.

*********************

Back to the merits of the Chevy Volt. This line caught my attention:

Unlike the 2013 model year, which received a slightly larger battery pack, an increase in EPA-approved all-electric range from 35 miles to 38 miles, some trim upgrades and some new color options, changes for the 2014 model are minimal.  

If I read that correctly, last year's model increased the all-electric range from 35 miles to 38 miles, but for 2014, the range was not extended.

*********************

In the showroom:

Prospective buyer: wow, nice looking car? How far can you drive on a full charge?

Salesman: 38 miles.

Prospective buyer: 38 miles/gallon?

Salesman: No, a total of 38 miles per full electric charge.

Prospective buyer: Say what?

Salesman: Well, that is an increase from 35 miles the previous year?

Prospective buyer: you mean from 2013?

Salesman: no, the 2013 model increased its range from 35 to 38 miles from the year before. The model you are looking at stayed the same. No improvements. But the tax breaks are better. And, hey, we will send a technician out to your house and install $2,000 worth of charging equipment in your garage.

Prospective buyer: I don't have a garage; I live in a high rise. By the way, are they still catching on fire? You know, I would never want to put a Volt in my garage. If I had one.

*********************

By the way, the article said there were "minimal" changes between the 2013 and the 2014 model which tells me GM took all designers, engineers off developing this money-losing car and moved them elsewhere (or laid them off).

Chevy Volt Vs Nissan Leaf Sales Figures, July 2013

AutoBlotGreen is reporting:

Another month, another chance to see if more people bought a Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid or an all-electric Nissan Leaf. For 2013, the tally has been pretty much tied, with the monthly "win" switching back and forth between the two cars throughout the year. Now that we have July's sales numbers – 1,864 units for the Leaf and 1,788 for the Volt – the yearly totals stand at 11,703 (Leaf) and 11,643 (Volt). That's just a 60-car margin for the Chevy over seven months. Silver medals all around.

The real race will be between BMW and all the rest.

Chariot Sales On Fire? GM Cuts Price of Chevy Volt

Updates

June 11, 2013: wow, this guy is a shill for the US auto industry. He's about as credible as Art Carney, Mr Obama's spokeperson. 

Original Post

WNEW is reporting:

The price of the 2013 models will be cut by $4,000. Those incentives are in addition to a $7,500 federal tax credit.

The final cost will be just under $30,000. That would put the Volt in the price range of the Nissan Leaf and plug-in Toyota Prius and Ford C-Max models.

The price drop comes after sales of the Volt dipped another 4 percent in May.

The big story, however, is the California mandate that 15% of automobiles sold in that state must be EVs, by some year, 2015, 2020, I forget. One of two things are going to happen: a) the law will be changed; or, b) very, very inexpensive ObamaCars will be given away.

Oh, electric golf carts will be part of the 15% mandate. Problem solved. My hunch: the new Apple R2D2 desktop computer will power golf carts in the future.

Random Update Of Chevy Volt Sales: Tesla Cannibalizing Chevy Volt Sales

Last October 2, 2012 (updated from the original January 5, 2012 post): August and September have been great months for auto sales, including the Volt:

With 2,831 sold, August was a good month for sales of the Chevrolet Volt. In fact, it was the most Volts sold in the U.S. in a single month, ever. Critics questioned whether those sales were legitimate, but there's no question the Volt is on a roll. Could Chevy orchestrate a repeat? September has answered that question with a resounding yes, and then some: GM sold 2,851 Volts last month. In September 2011, Chevy sold 723 Volts. With 210,245 vehicles sold across all brands, GM says that this was the best September, U.S. sales-wise, since 2008. [2,851 / 210,245 --> 1.3%. Pretty impressive.]

So, last autumn, GM sold about 5,700 Chevy Volts in two months.

How did GM do in 1Q13?

In an article comparing 1Q13 Tesla sales with the Chevy Volt and the Leaf, Bloomberg is reporting: 

Tesla expects to report at least 4,750 deliveries of the electric Model S in the U.S. and Canada when it releases first- quarter results on May 8, said Shanna Hendriks, a company spokeswoman, reiterating a March 31 estimate. That compares with 4,421 Volt sales in North America and 3,695 deliveries of Nissan Motor Co.’s Leaf, based on data provided by the carmakers.

So, 5,700 Volts in two months last autumn; 4,400 Volts in the past three months, albeit slow months for car sales.

The Tesla Model S Road Tests: Not Ready For Prime Time

Updates

June 28, 2016: Business Insider says everyone is missing the point. BI argues that MuskMelon is not concerned about TSLA share price, and yes, this was a SolarCity bailout. BI says MuskMelon envisions:

With this bid, Tesla is trying to become what Musk probably wanted it to be all along: an integrated holding company providing global-warming solutions.

If the SolarCity deal goes through, then Tesla will be a carmaker; a battery maker, thanks to the Gigafactory being built in Nevada; an energy storage company, thanks to Tesla Energy, unveiled last year and selling residential battery packs; and a solar finance firm.

Put all that together under one roof and you get a company that can sell or lease you a zero-emission, off-the-grid lifestyle.

Plus, Musk rescues his SolarCity investment in the process. But there's nothing surprising here in the master plan. Musk has always thought of the companies he's involved with as a single mega investment. It makes sense to use the stock of one to keep another one going.

Or as I've said, a "an electric battery company disguised as an automobile company surviving on government credits and tax breaks." 

June 22, 2016: the Tesla story gets curiouser and curiouser. Battery technology update.

June 22, 2016: Bloomberg weighs in. No matter how "they" spin it, it suggests that MuskMelon is severely cash-strapped.  

June 10, 2016: Tesla has a problem. 

May 13, 2016: billions and billions to ramp up. 

May 10, 2016: Investopedia/Barclay's -- not going to happen. 

May 5, 2016: Meanwhile, MuskMelon is trying to achieve something the manufacturing world has never seen before: produce 500,000 vehicles per year by 2018, a target that was moved up from 2020. 

May 5, 2016: WSJ is reporting that Tesla's losses widen on lower-than-expected deliveries. Now we know why the vice president for manufacturing and the vice president for production are both departing. Yesterday it was a bit unclear. 

April 7, 2016: 1Q16 EV sales; Tesla misses its own forecast. Numbers don't mesh.

April 6, 2016: not all Tesla owners will get the federal tax credit. This is a non-story. The 200,000 car sales threshold will be eliminated when politically expedient, and Elon Musk knows that. A billion dollars can buy a lot of votes.

August 20, 2015: Elon Musk says the interstate Superchargers are not to be used by Tesla owners for routine, daily, local use. 

August 14, 2015: Announced yesterday, apparently $500 million for Tesla was not enough. The Wall Street Journal is now reporting (no link; I'm sure you can find the story "everywhere"):  

Tesla boosted the size of its stock offering, unveiled just a day earlier, by more than $140 million.The electric-car maker said it now plans to sell about 2.69 million shares, up from the 2.1 million shares it said it would sell on Thursday. At the offering price of $242 a share, the sale would raise about $652 million.

August 13, 2015: just weeks after raising $750 million in new loans, Tesla announces a new issue of Tesla stock; will issue 2.1 million shares for $500 million. About $240/share. On July 21, 2015, I wrote: if Tesla requires another $500 million to $1 billion bailout before July, 2016, it will speak volumes of how Tesla is doing.

July 29, 2015: Tesla surges; article on lithium batteries. 

July 21, 2015: GE announces it will get into storage (batteries); Tesla tanks.

June 22, 2015: "They" said it, not me. Tesla has a cash problem. 

February 14, 2015: burning through cash, Elon Musk may be losing his marbles.

April 26, 2014: they're gonna be burning a lot of coal in China if Tesla succeeds. It takes 75 pounds of coal to fully charge the Tesla ... each time.

September 6, 2013: the gargantuan Tesla battery shortage problem, at SeekingAlpha.

September 2, 1013: I think the Tesla is to the EV industry, what the Keystone XL is to the oil pipeline industry. Whether one agrees or disagrees with this writer, the outcome is not only interesting, but very, very critical to the entire future of the EV.  In case the link ever breaks, the writer feels Tesla is in greater financial trouble than folks are willing to admit.

August 19, 2013: the young and the rich buying the Tesla Model S. I think this kills the Chevy Volt. In fact, at the very end of the article:

"If you can afford a $100,000 dollar car why would you buy the Chevy Volt? It is a nice car, but why wouldn't you buy the Tesla Model S? If you have the money, you are going to buy the Tesla model S," said Riswick.

August 17, 2013: Bloomberg reports --

BMW will show a production version of the plug-in hybrid i8 coupe at the Frankfurt auto show next month that’s to go on sale in the U.S. in early 2014. Pricing, also to be announced next month, will be less than $150,000, Willisch said. Model S starts at about $70,000. 

August 17, 2013: hybrids are "better" for the environment that EV -- from The Wall Street Cheat Sheet --

I’m sure you have heard the statement that an electric cars is only as green as the electricity that is used to power it. Climate Central performed a study on the environmental nature of electricity in all 50 states around the U.S. in order to determine what merits electric vehicles have in each state. It turns out that in the states reliant on fossil fuel power stations to generate their electricity, conventional hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are better for the climate than any electric car available on the market.

When considering carbon emissions for the entire lifetime (including construction) of an electric vehicle, it might surprise you know that EVs start with a far higher carbon footprint that hybrids, or even conventional gasoline cars. The manufacturing of the EV battery alone creates between 10,000 and 40,000 pounds of carbon that then takes tens, or hundreds of thousands of miles of driving, using clean electricity, to work off.

August 9, 2013: fairy tale accounting at Tesla, SeekingAlpha. This is a very complete update of the finances of this company: a) 25% margins on making and selling their cars; b) 100% margins on selling ZEV credits in a fully saturated market.

On Wednesday of this week Tesla reported its second quarter results. It beat guidance and expectations on the number cars delivered and average sales price per car, and significantly improved gross margin on its core business of making and selling cars without regard to the profitability of its 100% margin side business of creating and selling ZEV and other regulatory credits.

August 7, 2013: musings on the electric vehicle story

June 19, 2013; Tesla Model S recalled for defect in mounting bracking of the back seat. Company things 20% of 1,226 Tesla Model S's may be affected.

June 18, 2013: CNBC seems obsessed with Tesla. As am I.

June 11, 2013: yes, the Tesla is for the rich who are looking for a 3rd or 4th car.

June 10, 2013: Tesla is a lemon with a less expensive battery -- Barrons.

June 3, 2013: it just got worse. SeekingAlpha is reporting:

What will be a surprise coming from last week's announcement is that investors will eventually realize that Tesla's SuperCharger infrastructure build-out is going to be SuperExpensive when analysts rework their models to account for ALL costs associated with providing "free" charge-ups and building the network to make it viable.
Not only is TSLA currently a car manufacturer, but they are now becoming an "infrastructure builder." 

Smart money may have been quick to realize the foregoing new cost concerns. After the Supercharger announcement on Thursday (5/30/13), the stock reacted in classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" style. The stock lost $7.17 to close at $97.76 - a 6.85% loss on Friday. Selling spiraled downward shortly after the buzz died down from Elon Musk's morning interview on CNBC to further market his Supercharger concept to the masses.

June 2, 2013: the numbers don't add up. Tesla won't make it. That's my opinion. Whether Tesla survives or not, investors won't make much money. Yahoo!News is reporting:

The main takeaway is that Tesla isn't making money selling electric cars. 

The little money the company has made is through unsustainable tax credits with little hope of a repeat performance anytime soon. In other words, don't count on Tesla's profits keeping pace with its stock price.

Tesla isn't alone in building electric cars, but it is alone in the relative valuation. General Motors and Nissan build electric cars, and, like Tesla, selling electric cars isn't a profit center.

Some of the money is already spent, and there is no putting the toothpaste back into the tube. But other money is subject to the whims of state and federal legislators. Without changes, the federal $7,500 tax credit should phase out beginning with 200,000 vehicles sold. 

Tesla has a long way to go before it sells 200,000 vehicles, but the fact of diminishing returns shouldn't be lost on investors, especially longer-term investors. 

June 1, 2013:  Tesla says its "supercharging" stations around the US will only work for their Teslas.

May 31, 2013: Bob Lutz, former chairman of GM -- the electric car is coming -- CNBC is reporting:

"I always say that the electric car future is definitely coming, because batteries will accept more charge, the cost of batteries will come down, fast charging will happen," he said. "But the whole thing is five to 10 years away."

May 31, 2013: the Tesla is for the very well-to-do, the wealthy

May 30, 2013: companies are even having trouble "giving away" electric vehicles in California. I think there are two reasons: a) there are very few people that can live with the limited range; most folks don't want a brick parked in their garage; and, b) they don't like the idea of a contractor coming out to the house to install a charging station, even if it's free. 

May 17, 2013: Tesla pays back its US Energy Department load nine years ahead of schedule.

April 26, 2013: Tesla cannibalizing Chevy Volt sales.

May 5, 2011: the $109,000 Tesla Roadster is now "retired." It was outsold by the Chevy Volt.

February 23, 2013: Tesla acknowledges the potential of their EV. 

February 21, 2013: decreased earnings at Tesla suggest folks may be cancelling their orders. -- New York Times.  Quote of the day at that linked article:

"We are not demand-constrained," Tesla's chief executive, Elon Musk, said on an investor call on Wednesday. "We are intentionally production-constrained."  

Where have I heard that name before, "Elon Musk?" Oh, yeah,  he's giving battery advice to Boeing.

February 19, 2013, 9:50 am: CNBC test driving the Tesla. Top model gets 265 miles fully charged on cruise control, 65 - 70 mph. Can't speed. Can't take detours. Tesla would not get you from Fargo to Williston without recharging in Belfield -- but that would be fine -- 30 minute quick-charge while having dinner. But no speeding. And no detours. Or you will find yourself in Grassy Butte high and dry. [Update: did I hear correctly? On CNBC February 21, 2013, I thought they said from NYC to Boston, the CNBC driver had to stop twice to recharge, and one of the stops was for an hour recharge. Also, the talking head said that putting a recharging station in at one's home is "not all that expensive": about $10,000. On top of the over-priced electric vehicles.]

February 11, 2013, 4:10 pm: The Times responded and said the story is absolutely factual. Elon Musk said the reporter was required to leave a) with a full charge; b) take no detours on the trip from Washington, DC, to New York; and, c) must not drive "fast" -- "not much above the speed limit" -- the latter point was a bit vague. There was some debate regarding whether the cold night prior to the trip was part of the problem.

February 11, 2013, 3:13 pm: On CNBC, the Tesla Motors/CEO, Elon Musk responded to the NY Times article. Musk had three complaints, none of which were valid. But the most "nutty" comment was that the NY Times driver drove too fast, sometimes as much as ten miles above the speed limit. Really? First, on the interstate and state highways, it is not uncommon for drives to exceed the speed limit by ten miles per hour. And second, the Tesla is being marketed as a sports car, a "fun" car, a "snappy" car, and so you buy it and are told to drive slowly to save electricity? Okay. It was a test drive. The driver was simply reporting his experience which sounded pretty real. I have no idea why the NY Times would "fake" a story on this car as Elon Musk suggests the Times writer did.

February 11, 2013: the WSJ also ran a long story on Tesla; more from the financial angle, as one would expect. 

A key figure will be how many Model S cars the company is now making per week. It was making 200 a week in October and needs to make at least 400 a week to break even.

Tesla, which has posted a loss in every quarter since its initial public offering in 2010, is facing plenty of skeptics. In the third quarter of 2012, it reported a loss of $111 million on revenue of $50 million. The company raised $193 million in an October stock offering.

Tesla is closely watched as lower-than-expected demand for electric cars has forced several startups and publicly traded companies to shut down, and because Tesla received $465 million in loans from the Department of Energy. Not since the 1920s has a startup car company managed to survive in the U.S. market. 

February 1, 2013: Tesla makes Consumer Reports top ten list. Am I missing something?

Original Post 

Two reviews of the Tesla Model S today. One review in the LA Times; one in the NY Times. It was not possible to pick a short summary from the articles. If interested, please go to the linked articles.  This is where I am archiving reviews of the Tesla. 

February 10, 2013: NY Times -- a very, very bad review of the Tesla Model S -- 

Instead, I spent nearly an hour at the Milford service plaza as the Tesla sucked electrons from the hitching post. When I continued my drive, the display read 185 miles, well beyond the distance I intended to cover before returning to the station the next morning for a recharge and returning to Manhattan.

I drove, slowly, to Stonington, Conn., for dinner and spent the night in Groton, a total distance of 79 miles. When I parked the car, its computer said I had 90 miles of range, twice the 46 miles back to Milford. It was a different story at 8:30 the next morning. The thermometer read 10 degrees and the display showed 25 miles of remaining range — the electrical equivalent of someone having siphoned off more than two-thirds of the fuel that was in the tank when I parked.

I called Tesla in California, and the official I woke up said I needed to “condition” the battery pack to restore the lost energy. That meant sitting in the car for half an hour with the heat on a low setting. (There is now a mobile application for warming the battery remotely; it was not available at the time of my test drive.)

February 10, 2013: LA Times tests the Tesla Model S; an EV for $90,000.  So, we'll see how it does.

The trouble is that repeated demonstrations of the car's prodigious power utterly destroy its range. Tesla says this model will go 300 miles on a single charge. The EPA puts that number at 265 miles. Over four days of testing the car, we managed only about 160 miles in heavy-footed driving.

All Model S's will charge through a 120V or 240V outlet. Tesla says the former needs roughly 46 hours to recharge fully, while the latter needs eight to 10 hours. Buyers can reduce these times by adding a second on-board charger for $1,500 and buying a high-power wall connector for $1,200.

Tesla is also installing 100 of what it calls supercharging stations in the U.S. and Canada by year's end, including six already operating in California. They're free for Tesla owners, who can add half a charge in about half an hour.