The Literature Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- What Comes Around, Goes Around -- April 10, 2017

This is pretty amazing. It appears I have mentioned Ayn Rand in no less than twenty or so posts, and in some posts, she was the reason for a significant part of the post. Do a word search, "Ayn Rand," on the blog and you will see what I mean.

Now, of all things, Drudge links Ayn Rand to The Guardian: the new age of Ayn Rand -- how she won over Trump and Silicon Valley. Her novel is one of the few works of fiction that Donald Trump likes and she has long been the darling of the US right. But only now do her devotees hold sway around the world.

The link to the article is here.

Some years ago I finally decided to read one of her books. I chose Atlas Shrugged. I got about halfway through before I finally quit. I thought it had become quite tedious. She had made her conservative point in the first 100 pages and I didn't think I needed another 300 pages to see if I missed anything.

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The Celts

I flew into Portland, Oregon, Monday, April 18, 2107, to spend a week visiting our daughter/son-in-law; my sister/her family; and my mother.

First full day in town my daughter took me to Powell's bookstore, the first store we visited. Following Powell's my daughter took me on a chocolate candy "tour" of downtown Portland. Her favorite: Verdan, imported Lebanese chocolate.

I'm still in my "Celts phase." I found an incredibly great book on the Celts:

The Celts; edited by Venceslas Kruta et al; Rizzoli publishers; translated from the Italian; c. 1997 (first copyright, 1991); Powell's bookstore, Portland, April 18, 2017. 

Reuters Oil Analyst Updates Saudi Arabia's Official Reserve Assets -- April 10, 2017

Oil Glut To Continue Or Scarcity Looming? Depends Upon Whom You Ask -- Rigzone -- April 10, 2017

Nice article over at Rigzone. Archived.

Two arguments.

• Spending cuts for large oil projects will result in supply crunch in the next two years
• investment banks, many of which finance new projects
• majors, including Total and Eni
• Wood Mackenzie
• Morgan Stanley
• Looming recovery in US output with an avalanche of new conventional projects on the back of high oil prices will create a substantial surplus by 2019
• Goldman Sachs
• predicts the coming two years will see a huge burst of development
• the huge burst of development will complicate OPEC's efforts to rebalance the market 
• will result in material oversupply in 2018 - 19
• warns that new projects and rising shale output could add 1 million bopd by 2018-19

Much more at the link. It will be interesting to re-look at this article two years from now. Or maybe as early as next year.

Active Rigs Jump To 52; 7 DUCs; 9 Permits Renewed -- April 10, 2017

Active rigs:

	4/10/2017	04/10/2016	04/10/2015	04/10/2014	04/10/2013
Active Rigs	52	31	93	190	190

Since previous report, this was the increase in active rigs (CLR, Enerplus, Kraken Operating, and Hess each increased by one):

• CLR: went from 4 up to 5
• Enerplus: went from 2 up to 3
• Kraken Operating: went from 1 up to 2
• Hess: went from 3 up to 4

Wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:

• 32562, 1,385, Whiting, Flatland 43-9H-1XH, Banks, 35 stages; 9.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 133K 2/17;

Four new permits:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Sand Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Nine permits renewed:

• Thunderbird (3): three Watson B permits in McKenzie County
• Whiting (3): a Kaden TTT permit and a Westin TTT permit, both in Mountrail County; a Moccasin Creek permit in Dunn County
• Lime Rock (2): two State Dvorak permits in Dunn County
• HRC: one Fort Berthold permit in McKenzie County

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported at completed:

• 28801, 1,194, CLR, Alpha 4-14H1, Camp, t3/17; cum --
• 30337, 1,074, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 5-36H1, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t2/17; cum --
• 30338, 974, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 6-36H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t2/17; cum --
• 32331, 2,204, BR, CCU Red River 1-2-16 MBH, Corral Creek, t3/17; cum --
• 32734, 2,654, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-3H, Lost Bridge, t3/17; cum --
• 32735, 2,600, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-13H, Lost Bridge, t3/17; cum --
• 32736, 3,031, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-4HLW, Lost Bridge, 2 sections, t2/17; cum --

A graphic of the three Lost Bridge Federal wells can be found at this post.

Bump in production: it might be interesting to check up on #30092 in a few months to see what effect fracking #32331 had on that well (#30092). 

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32562, see above, Whiting, Flatland 43-9H-1XH, Banks:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2017	18037	80349
1-2017	25187	97769
12-2016	38397	90149
11-2016	37263	94694
10-2016	14018	32529

Choking Back Wells -- A Bit Of Insight -- April 10, 2017

According to Bloomberg:

Natural gas drillers in America’s biggest shale play are getting more bang for their buck than ever before.

Thanks to new pipelines and technological advances, producers in the Northeast can now tailor their output to the rise and fall of gas prices. Production from the region’s Marcellus and Utica basins appears to lag price moves at key regional hub Dominion South by three days.

It was the technology that caught my attention because I've talked often about operators "choking back" production in the Bakken and noting significant changes in production month-over-month even among individual wells. From the article:

... remote-controlled well heads make it possible for explorers to fine-tune output. The developments may help producers prevent another supply glut.

Responsiveness to prices is “just one more lever that the market can pull to make sure things balance ...”

In a matter of weeks, producers “were able to swing from dropping overall production in that area by 1.5 billion cubic feet to bringing it all back online.”

Producers have perfected the art of choking wells, or restricting initial output ...

Computer control of wells has allowed producers to remotely expand or cut production, a practice that used to be done manually by adjusting a well’s diameter.

“Field technology has gotten a lot better and I think the companies have invested a lot in it” since last year’s energy price rout.

Another Texas Pipeline -- 571-Mile EPP NG Pipeline -- April 10, 2017

It's hard to keep up with all the new pipelines going into Texas, but I believe this is an announcement for a new pipeline. From Oil & Gas Journal, data points:

• Shin Oak NGL pipeline
• Enterprise Products Partners (EPP)
• 571-mile pipeline; NG; 24-inch OD pipeline
• from Permian Basin to NGL fractionation and storage complex in Mont Belvieu, TX
• origin: EPP's Hobbs NGL fractionation and storage facility in Gaines County, TX
• initial design capacity of 250,000 b/d
• expandable to 600,000 b/d
• in service in 2Q19
• will also provide takeaway capacity for three gas processing plants in the Permian Basin
• two EPP facilities that began service in 2016
• the Orla I plant scheduled to begin operations 2Q18

Much more at the link.

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Meanwhile, No Such Pipeline In New York

Meanwhile, in response to the above, a reader sent me this link reporting that the state of New York has denied, "literally in the 11th hour," the permit for the "Northern Access" pipeline. The pipeline:

Northern Access is a half billion dollar privately-funded natural gas infrastructure expansion investment by Supply and Empire in Western New York and north-central Pennsylvania. The Project is designed to transport domestically-produced natural gas, providing increased reliability to the Western New York natural gas markets, and access to a low-cost source of energy for residential and commercial customers throughout the North American pipeline grid.

The Project also supports new and growing employment at National Fuel and is estimated to increase annual property tax receipts by $11.8 million for four New York counties, with an additional one-time sales tax impact of $6.6 million for the same four counties.

Twelve school districts within those counties will benefit from the annual incremental increase in tax revenue. 

For Newbies, Look At The Bump In Production In This Three Forks Second Bench Well -- April 10, 2017

The link is here. Again, note that this is a Three Forks second bench well.  The geologic report called this the "lower Three Forks bench." I could be wrong, but I believe at that time, this was the way they referred to a well targeting a formation below the upper bench.

For Newbies, Look At This Re-Frack -- #20464, Oasis' Rolfson 29-32 In Siverston Oil Field -- April 10, 2017

Previously posted, but we now have the first full month of this re-fracked well.

Updated, August 3, 2017.

North Dakota: #1 State For Millennials -- WalletHub Via Rigzone Via Twitter -- April 10, 2017

Across 24 key metrics, North Dakota ranked first for millennials. Data points:

• based on WalletHub analysis (for more on this WalletHub story: link here)
• millennials: those born between 1981 and 1997
• North Dakota, among 50 states plus DC:
• 2nd highest percentage of millennials
• the lowest number of millennials living with their parents
• second-lowest housing cost for millennials
• lowest unemployment rate for millennials
• Texas? 27th
• Pennsylvania? 21st

The Market And Energy Page, T+79 -- April 10, 2017

ATT to buy Straight Path Communications.  Puts them on a more competitive path with Sprint. $1.6 billion deal. Up $50 to $91. Or thereabouts.

More Trump jobs: Toyota to invest $1.3 billion in Kentucky Camry plant. The move/announcement follows President Trump's criticism over the Japanese company's Mexico's plans. -- WSJ. This should help a state hit hard by the war on coal.

Coal update: By the way, speaking of coal, from wiki, The five largest coal producing states with production in million short tons and the share of total U.S. coal production in 2015:

• Wyoming: 375.8 (42%)
• West Virginia: 95.6 (11%)
• Kentucky: 61.4 (7%)
• Illinois: 56.1 (6%)
• Pennsylvania: 50.0 (6%)

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Not Smarter Than A 5th Grader

My wife says she can no longer win Bananagrams playing against our 5th grade granddaughter. A recent winning board completed by our granddaughter:

The Political Page, T+79 -- April 10, 2017

Irony: via twitter -- Kentucky Coal museum is installing solar panels on its roof to lower energy costs.

First world problems: the fact that 2 out of 3 male sage grouse are infertile may be the reason for their problems, not the "breeding grounds fragmented by oil drilling." By the way, even in areas in states where they are not drilling, the sage grouse is not doing any better. But then that's just my 2-cents worth.

Winter from hell in Mammoth Lakes, California: link here. The comments are, as usual, the best.  I can only assume the Kennedy grandchildren are enjoying the winter.

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An Artist At Work

Sophia will be three years old in a few months.

Texas City, TX -- Update -- RBN Energy -- April 10, 2017

Active rigs:

	4/10/2017	04/10/2016	04/10/2015	04/10/2014	04/10/2013
Active Rigs	49	31	93	190	190

RBN Energy: crude storage and docks near, but not in, the Houston Ship Channel.

The build-out of Houston-area crude oil storage and marine terminal capacity continues, and as it does, ship congestion in the Houston Ship Channel worsens. Which raises the question, why not develop more crude storage and marine docks outside the Ship Channel that still offers strong pipeline connectivity to crude production areas, the Cushing hub and Houston-area refineries—plus easier access to the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico? That’s a key premise behind Oiltanking’s first major Gulf Coast expansion since the February 2015 sale of most of Oiltanking’s assets in the region to Enterprise Products Partners. Today we discuss Oiltanking’s plan to add crude storage and a marine terminal in Texas City, TX.

Texas City is no crude-oil backwater. Texas City is home to three refineries with a combined capacity of more than 750 Mb/d—Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay and Texas City refineries and a nearby refinery owned by Valero —as well as several petrochemical plants. (Graphic at the link.)

Scott Adams: the Syrian air base attack.