A Record -- And Not Mentioned By Mainstream Media? America’s Century — March 5, 2023

Link here.

The Outlook For US Condensate Looks Brighter -- Richard Zeits -- February 5, 2018

Continuing his discussion of the lights and the ultra-lights, Richard Zeits has a new essay on US condensates over at SeekingAlpha:

• condensate for delivery in Asia are commanding strong premiums over crude benchmarks
• U.S. condensate producers are well positioned to grow volumes in 2018, notwithstanding fundamental uncertainties in natural gas
• U.S. super-rich gas plays have seen activity declines in the last three years but may experience a revival in 2018

• Bakken oil: approximately 50° API
• ultra-lights: 55.1°+ API

Condensates are typically low-sulphur crudes and are characterized by a low cost to process. Naphtha yields are obviously high (naphtha is used as gasoline blending components and petrochemical feedstocks). However, it is important to remember that heavier condensates also have significant middle distillate yields.
Naphtha-based ethylene margins in northeast Asia and middle distillate margins have been excellent in the last few months. At the same time, the supply of light sweet crude to Asia tightened a month ago due to the unforeseen interruption on the Forties Pipeline. As a result, demand for condensate has not been fully satisfied.

Another great introduction to condensates. Archived. 

I Have To Call It A Day For Now -- Leave You With This -- Off The Net For Awhile -- Zeits On US Light Oil / Condensate Production -- January 24, 2018

Link here over at SeekingAlpha.

Summary:

• claims that U.S. crude growth is dominated by super-light and ultra-light grades is a misconception
• in fact, production data show the opposite trend
• she super/ultra-light component of the U.S. crude stream has shrunk significantly in the last three years
• a recovery in these categories is in progress. In our expectation, future volumes will surprise to the upside 

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Tammany Hall Redux

I have two books on my nightstand that I really enjoy: one I have had quite some time and it often ends up back on the shelf only to be pulled down and placed back on the nightstand, and then a more recent one. Neither of them are "about" Tammany Hall (NYC) but both of them have devoted a considerable amount of space to Tammany Hall.

When I read about Tammany Hall, I immediately think of Barack Obama. He came close to re-establishing his version of Tammany Hall. If Hillary Clinton had been his successor, without a doubt, Tammany Hall would have been re-created. It would have just gone by a different name.

On US Petroleum Exports -- Al Troner's Article In Oil & Gas Journal On Light Ends -- June 6, 2016

From Al Troner's June 6, 2016, article in Oil & Gas Journal:

Almost unheralded, the US has emerged as the largest exporter of oil products, based on Gulf Coast refiners' use of relatively inexpensive, domestically produced tight oil. The product-export flood has been paralleled by large-volume NGL sales, with LPG (liquid petroleum gas) leading the way, in particular propane.

US sales have not only saturated the Atlantic Basin market but also become important to Asia Pacific supply. At mid-2015 China was the biggest single customer for US propane. And the opening of a revamped and enlarged Panama Canal by yearend will likely increase westbound LPG exports from the Gulf Coast even further. By 2018 US exports of LPG exports will likely equal or exceed those of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar combined.

Canada remains the top condensate US export market. APEC expects US supply to dominate Canadian diluent use until at least end-decade. Yet domestic condensate output has been growing rapidly in Canada, based on tight oil and shale gas development, in a trend APEC expects will gradually back out US sales in the coming decade. A steadier though smaller market emerged for slightly refined condensate in Europe, where refiners use the material regularly to fill out crude slates. By 2018 US condensate exports will exceed overseas sales by Saudi Arabia, and possibly by the kingdom and Qatar combined.

Ethane exports have begun as US sellers pioneered waterborne ethane shipments to buyers in the UK, Norway (Ineos and Sabic), and Sweden (Borealis). This has been followed by sales to India (Reliance) and China (Orient Energy).

The emergence of the light-ends space has not been solely a western market phenomenon. It has had East of Suez impacts as well, much of it centered on the Persian Gulf.

That opening line: Almost unheralded, the US has emerged as the largest exporter of oil products,.... occurred during the Obama administration.

Things to think about:

• Saudi's challenges
• US shale oil revolution
• 90% of tankers carrying petroleum products will be able to transit the Panama Canal starting next year
• Asian countries want to diversify their source of petroleum products; do not want to depend on Mideast as sole supplier
• Poland diversifying petroleum sources; doesn't want to rely solely on Russia
• India's growing demand for transportation fuel
• the global demand for naphtha
• "friendly" regulatory environment along the US gulf coast
• QUALITY -- the US sets the standards
• outside the US, instability seems to be the by-word; I can't say the global environment is any worse, but if Nigeria and Iraq are any examples, I would say the global environment is as bad as it's ever been
• US oil exports rise 7-fold in three months
• it never seems to quit

Huge Insurer To Exit Califoria Over Huge ObamaCare Losses -- June 1, 2016

ObamaCare, headline, section B, today's Wall Street Journal: UnitedHealth to exit California, a key market. Business losses mount.

• Trump: "Let's Make America Great Again"
• Hillary: "Let's Re-Visit ObamaCare"
• Gary Johnson: "Let's Make Hillary President"

May's auto sales data will be out this week. Last month's data, April's top selling cars:

#10: Chevrolet Malibu
#9: Chrysler 200
#8: BMW 3-Series
#7: Chevrolet Camaro
#6: Toyota Camry
#5: Honda Accord
#4: Mazda MX-5 Miata
#3: Ford Mustang
#2: Ford F-Series
#1: Honda Civic

Tesla: free-charging won't be available for Model 3 owners, unlike earlier models/owners.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	6/1/2016	06/01/2015	06/01/2014	06/01/2013	06/01/2012
Active Rigs	27	80	189	187	215

RBN Energy: condensate update.

“Condensates are long and you can’t give them away … No, things have changed – condensate supply is tight and prices are running up relative to WTI … But wait wait, the oversupply is back and prices are down again.” No wonder the market’s love for condensates has faded.  It’s a liquid hydrocarbon that is being buffeted by every force the market can bring to bear: declining production, lots of new committed infrastructure (stabilizers, pipelines, and splitters), wide-open export markets, volatile crack spread splitter economics -- the list goes on. Adding to this whirlwind is the fact that historically there has been limited analytical data to work with, with most condensate information buried deep inside crude production numbers from producer investor presentations and less-than-revealing Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil reports.  But we have some new tools to help understand what’s going on, including the EIA’s new 914 crude quality data and condensate export numbers from ClipperData.  Today, we continue our exploration of rapidly evolving condensate markets.

In Part 1 of Faded Love we revisited RBN condensate classics, including Fifty Shades of Condensates and Like A Box of Chocolates. 

We showed that while condensates are produced from all of the major basins across the U.S., the Eagle Ford in South Texas has been responsible for most of the production growth over the past five years, and how the Eagle Ford has been hit harder by low crude prices than any of the other major shale plays, resulting in declines in condensate production.  We then touched on the splitters built to process condensates in the U.S. and on other infrastructure to handle segregated processed condensate for export – now no longer required since the lifting of the crude/condensate export ban.  With the ban gone, there’s no longer anything special about a condensate barrel; it is just like any other crude oil, except lighter.  These developments have converged to create a topsy-turvy market for condensates, where both opportunities and dangers lurk for those brave enough to buy, sell and trade condensate barrels.

From today's RBN Energy blog: an update on the new EIA form 914:

The new 914, in use since January 2015 reporting, is an expanded survey for the collection of oil and gas production data from a sample of operators of oi/condensate and natural gas wells in 15 states and the federal Gulf of Mexico. For our purposes here, the big deal is that the new EIA-914 collects this crude oil production data in 10 API gravity buckets. So, after years of, well, Dancing in the Dark (our mid-2015 blog on condensate splitters), we get our first shot at official condensate statistics using the two API gravity buckets above 50 degrees API shown in Figure 1. Sampled producer companies (those large enough to be included in the survey) are required to fill out the form each month for their oil production and oil sales by API gravity category. There are 10 API gravity categories on the form reported in total for the U.S., but due to EIA’s confidentiality rules, these are collapsed to only four categories for the reporting of state‐level API gravity estimates.

There are all sorts of statistical quirks and machinations that EIA must go through to use this data due to the facts that 1) it is only a sample (85% volumetric coverage based on data from 450 operators out of roughly 13,000 oil and gas operators in the U.S.), and 2) EIA trues up and reconciles the 914 form data with production data from the individual states provided and consolidated by our friends at DrillingInfo.

Something To Keep Your Eyes On -- Eagle Ford Condensate Being Exported -- September 9, 2015

This is probably "business as usual," but it's news to me.
Platts is reporting:

The vessel Minerva Zenia is set to load from the US Gulf Coast to the Mediterranean with options to the UK, carrying an export of Eagle Ford condensate from the US, a fixture report showed Wednesday.

The foreign-flagged Aframax-sized ship, set to load September 20 and chartered by Petro-Diamond, Mitsubishi's wholly owned California trading arm, is currently in the Cayo Arcas terminal off the coast of Mexico.

Several fixtures for condensate cargoes have been seen from the US Gulf Coast since April. According to shipbrokers' reports and Platts cFlow, two of the runs have been completed and two tankers are en route.

Friday, July 10, 2015

Active rigs:

	7/10/2015	07/10/2014	07/10/2013	07/10/2012	07/10/2011
Active Rigs	73	189	186	212	170

I track North Dakota's active rig count here. 

RBN Energy: changing patterns of refiners' oil input.This is another fascinating article from RBN Energy. This was a topic discussed at the blog in the very early days of the Bakken boom. No one outside the industry understood this at the time. I doubt many folks still understand it. (Archived)

The U.S. energy production renaissance isn’t just changing where we get our crude oil and natural gas from, it’s forcing major shifts in the domestic oil refining sector. Gulf Coast, East Coast and Midwest refineries that used to depend heavily on foreign oil are turning to domestic sources, refiners’ ability to process very light U.S. crude is being stretched, and traditional pipeline flow patterns—for crude and refined products alike--are being up-ended. Today, we continue our look at fast-changing petroleum products markets and the infrastructure that supports them.

The infrastructure developed over the past 70-plus years to move, store and export refined petroleum products is an unending work-in-progress that reflects (among other things) ongoing changes in the sourcing of crude, the types of crude being produced, and the demand for gasoline, diesel, heating oil, kerosene-type jet fuel (kero-jet, also known as jet-kero) and other refined products. The petroleum products-related infrastructure—how it fits together, and how it’s still evolving—is the focus of this series.

The U.S. produces and consumes more refined petroleum products than any other nation on earth. Production of finished motor gasoline (which includes ethanol) now averages more than 9.5 MMb/d, while distillates production (mostly diesel and heating oil) is approaching 5 MMb/d and production of kero-jet stands at about 1.6 MMb/d.

These fuels need to be moved as efficiently as possible from refineries to where they are stored and (ultimately) consumed domestically or exported. More often than not, they are moved much--or, in a few cases, all--of the way to market via petroleum product pipelines (more than 63,000 miles of them) to storage terminals in areas with significant fuel demand. From there fuels are generally distributed by tanker trucks to heating oil dealers and gas stations; many airports get their kero-jet delivered by smaller-diameter pipeline. In our series opener, we also explained how petroleum product pipelines typically transport specific products in a series of “batches” that are diverted to the proper tanks in sequence as they arrive at downstream storage facilities. In today’s episode, we’ll focus on refineries—where they are, and how their feedstock sourcing is changing.

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Data points from the RBN Energy blog today (there will be a quiz later):

The top five US refiners by capacity:

• Valero: 1.96 million bopd
• XOM: 1.86 million bopd
• MRO: 1.73 milion bopd
• Phillips 66: 1.61 million bopd
• Motiva Enterprises: 1.08 million bopd

In other words: four refiners each between 1.5 and 2.0 million bopd; and one refiner at about 1 million bopd. Total refining capacity in US about 18 million bopd.

Refineries are configured to operate most efficiently when processing certain types of crude

• light oil: 32 - 40 degrees
• above 40 commonly seen from shale basins such as the Eagle Ford and the Bakken
• ultra-light: above 50 (again, from the Eagle Ford and the Bakken); generally known as condensates
• diluted bitumen from Alberta oil sands: 22 - 31 degrees
• heavier crudes require more complex refiners (think, more expensive)
• sulfur must be removed during processing; heavier crudes, more sulphur

Cokers:

• PADD 3: Gulf Coast
• PADD 2: Midwest
• PADD 5: West Coast

No cokers (except for one):

• PADD 1: East Coast -- historically relied on imported light oil

Minor refining, has some coking

• PADD 4: Rockies

The US is gradually shifting to lighter oil

• in April 2015 (the most recent month for which EIA figures are available), the average API gravity of the crude refined in the U.S. rose to its highest level (32.18 degrees;) since March 1990
• in July 2008, before the shale era began in earnest, the average API gravity bottomed out at 29.9 degrees. (That difference of 2.28 degrees may not sound like much, but in the refining industry it is huge.)

Changes:

• PADD 3: was 29.31; now 31.83
• PADD 2: 32.13; now 33.61
• PADD 1: was 31.53; now 34.99 (think Delta, think Bakken)

The Keystone pipeline was not mentioned.

Not mentioned: swaps make more sense than removing ban on US oil exports.
 

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Talking About Lagged Data

EIA "energy cookie":

EIA develops state-level production estimates for selected states that are based in part on state-level data. However, data published by state agencies are often incomplete when first published because of a combination of late reporting and processing delays, mainly due to the filing of production reports that do not contain all required information...

Production data for Texas, the largest crude-oil producing state, published by EIA in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) and by the Texas Railroad Commission (TRRC) in its monthly reports, reflect differences in the treatment of incomplete and lagged data...

The need for EIA to calculate a true-up oil production volume for states, including Texas, will soon be replaced by a direct EIA survey of oil producers, just as it currently surveys natural gas producers in its EIA-914 survey.---EIA

North Dakota's data seems to be about the most transparent and most current of any state and is light-years ahead of the federal government's reporting of import data, which one would think would be easiest to track. Import data should be available in real-time.

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So, Who Blinked?

The Drudge Report has the headline suggesting that the EU blinked. A SeekingAlpha contributor suggested that the market is surging because "Greece blinked."

In fact, the socialists played Europe like a fiddle. Of course, all the i's and all the t's have not been dotted, or the exact euro figures filled in, but as I said some weeks ago, the Greek government (i.e., the men at the top top) were not going to let $8.1 billion slip through their fingers. A fair amount of that $8.1 billion will be skimmed off the top to line the coffers of key government figures. The real losers are the poorest Greeks. The pensioners take a "haircut," and the government makes a few promises ("wink, wink") and then this Greek drama is over for the next five years.

Even Paul Krugman agrees: more money should have been sent to Greece, and it should have been sent much earlier, and all of this could have been avoided.

After all, the EU has not run out of money for the Greeks to spend.

(By the way, the linked Krugman opinion piece is one of the most poorly argued / most poorly written pieces I've seen by him -- I guess both he and I are getting tired.)

[July 18, 2015: see follow-up on Krugman at this link. At the linked post, way at the bottom.]

Keystone XL 62 - 36 Senate; Existing Home Sales Plummet In December; Odds And Ends On A Thursday -- January 29, 2015

Sales of existing homes in December: unexpectedly fell by the most in 12 months

• housing industry's recovery is "uneven"
• but the story is even worse than the headline: the 3.7% drop in December (way more than expected) followed a meager 0.6% gain the prior month -- smaller than initially estimated
• but it's even worse: analysts forecast a slight gain (0.5%) versus the huge decline
• by region: northeast, a drop of 7.5%; the west, a decline of 4.6%; in the midwest, a 2.8% decline; and in the south, a 2.6% drop
• resales make up 90 percent of the housing market

US home ownership falls to 20-year low.  Just under 64%.

Senate votes on Keystone XL, passes 62 - 36; now headed for the president's veto.

COP and OXY each cut spending by 30%. Some data points:

• COP previously said they would cut CAPEX by 20%; now up to 31%
• OXY will cut CAPEX by 33%; noted a $1.6 billion profit in 2013; an almost-$6 billion loss in 2014

Kinder Morgan's Freedom Pipeline project gaining more interest

• would move Texas crude oil from Texas to California
• would convert a natural gas pipeline to move crude and condensate
• a $2 billion project; 740-mile line; would require more than 200 miles of new pipeline
• would reformulate Texas crude at front end so it would more nearly match Alaska North Slope crude
• project would also ship ultra-light crude which could then be exported from California
• includes a topping unit in Wink, Texas where Texas oil / condensate would be reformulated

Random update of status of US exporting ultra-light condensate (same link)

• KMI did not say if they had permit approval to export ULC from California
• "at least" four other companies have such permits; a fifty is moving ahead with exports -- not waiting for approval, arguing "minimal processing" meets the letter of the law

Big Oil cuts $20 billion in five (5) hours to preserve dividends (the story is mostly about Shell)

• Shell, the first to report earnings, will defer / cancel about 40 projects worldwide
• OXY cut 33%
• COP raised cuts to 31%
• more than 30,000 layoffs have been announced across the oil industry

Shell still plans to drill the Arctic this summer
concern if they don't do it this year, ice expansion could preclude drilling in the future (I made that part up)

Whoever Thought We Would See This Headline ....

.... BloombergBusinessweek is reporting: US crude oil exports will soon break the record, last set in 1957.

The USSR launched Sputnik 1 in October, 1957. Since then the Vietnam War, the sexual revolution, Nixon goes to China, the blue dress, a couple of wars in the Mideast, and now US crude oil exports will set a new record:

U.S. oil exports are set to surpass a record held since 1957 as traders find ways around a four-decade ban on supplies leaving the country.

The U.S. sent 401,000 barrels a day abroad in July, 54,000 shy of the record set in March 1957, according to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical unit. While Canada accounted for 93 percent of the shipments, Italy, Singapore and Switzerland also took oil from U.S. ports. Coupled with Alaskan supplies bound for Asia, total U.S. exports will reach 1 million barrels a day by the middle of 2015, according to Citigroup Inc.

Shipments abroad have quadrupled from a year ago as U.S. drillers pull record volumes of crude and natural gas out of shale formations across the middle of the country using hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Exemptions to a federal ban on crude exports allow for deliveries to Canada and permits some shipments from Alaska and California. The Commerce Department also issued rulings this year allowing processed condensate, an ultra-light crude, to be sent overseas.

Much, much more at the linked article.

Helping to set that record, The New York Times is reporting:

The Singapore-flagged tanker BW Zambesi set sail with little fanfare from the port of Galveston, TX, on July 30, loaded with crude oil destined for South Korea. But though it left inauspiciously, the ship’s launch was another critical turning point in what has been a half-decade of tectonic change for the American oil industry.

The 400,000 barrels the tanker carried represented the first unrestricted export of American oil to a country outside of North America in nearly four decades. The Obama administration insisted there was no change in energy trade policy, perhaps concerned about the reaction from environmentalists and liberal members of Congress with midterm elections coming. But many energy experts viewed the launch as the curtain raiser for the United States’ inevitable emergence as a major world oil exporter, an improbable return to a status that helped make the country a great power in the first half of the 20th century.

And again, much, much more at the linked article. I have mentioned many, many times, this is exactly how it will be done: there will be no big announcement, no change in policy, but it will happen.

See also this post on condensates. 

**********************************

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going

A Note For The Granddaughters

From PBS:

For the men leading the Panama Canal project in 1904, challenges of building the canal were exacerbated by the infectious diseases that ran rampant in the hot, wet Panamanian climate. By 1906, more than 85% of the canal workers had been hospitalized. The threat of yellow fever created panic and made the site undesirable and feared by employees. Malaria was no better -- someone who fell ill usually required a stay in the hospital, and recovery did not ensure immunity. During the course of canal construction, tens of thousands of workers fell ill with yellow fever or malaria.

Yellow fever's gruesome symptoms and high death rate were so horrifying to American canal workers that even a whisper of an outbreak sent boatloads of men fleeing. Early symptoms of yellow fever were headaches, fever, and muscle pain. As the disease progressed, however, the patient experienced jaundice, thirst, and a dark black vomit caused by internal hemorrhaging. Ultimately, the disease could lead to kidney failure, delirium, seizures, coma, and often death.

Patients with malaria also experienced chills, headaches, fever, aching, fatigue, and nausea. In the worst cases, malaria caused kidney failure and potentially even coma or death. Unlike survivors of yellow fever, however, malaria survivors were not immune to recurrences of the disease. Malaria's lower fatality rate and frequent reappearance resulted in frequent and expensive hospital stays.

At the time, doctors disagreed on how to stop either yellow fever or malaria; mosquitoes had not yet been accepted as the primary transmitters. Hospitals treated patients with high doses of whiskey, eggnog, or by rubbing a solution of kerosene and oil on the skin. There were mustard baths and ice baths. Quinine, made from the bark of a cinchona tree, was taken as a fever reducer and painkiller, although the bitter-tasting liquid often caused deafness as a side effect. The most common treatment was simply to keep the patient quiet and comfortable, and hope that they survived.

Ebola, too, will be conquered. And when it is, it will again be the Americans that do it.

As a reminder:

France began work on the Panama Canal in 1881, but [gave up] because of engineering problems and high mortality due to disease. The United States took over the project in 1904, and took a decade to complete the canal, which was officially opened on August 15, 1914.

Dr Gorgas retired in 1918 at the mandatory retirement age of 64; he died two years later, in 1920.
For his work he did not receive a Nobel Prize, but this week three scientests were awarded a Nobel Prize for "inventing" the blue light-emitting diode.

No Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded in 1914 (the year the Panama Canal was completed). No Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded in 1915. Or 1916. Or 1917. Or 1918. But the scientists who invented the blue light-emitting diode have theirs. At least of one them was said to have been quite surprised.

When Ebola is conquered, and it will be, President Obama should share in the Nobel Prize for Medicine for that feat. That will be one he has earned.

********************************

The Impossible Takes A Bit Longer

I'm reminded of Dr Gorgas, the Panama Canal, and the recent article about US military personnel being sent to Ebola ("Ebola" is the large geographical area in west Africa with undefined borders, much like Kurdistan in the Mideast). It's possible a Special Forces team went in first, but if so, it was the US Air Force that brought them in.

I have some incredible memories of flying multiple missions with different C-130 crews into west Africa many, many years ago. It is probably their granddaughters and grandsons now piloting some of the same C-130's or larger and newer cargo planes into the heart of darkness.

And somewhere, in some cockpit, some co-pilot has hung up a cardboard mobile with these words on it from a black Sharpie:  “The difficult we do immediately. The impossible takes a little longer.”

********************************

Source: Bartleby.

 

QUOTATION: With willing hearts and skillful hands, the difficult we do at once; the impossible takes a bit longer.

ATTRIBUTION: Author unknown.

Inscription on the memorial to the Seabees (U.S. Naval Construction Batallions), between Memorial Bridge and Arlington Cemetery:

 “The difficult we do immediately. The impossible takes a little longer.”

—Motto of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers during World War II, according to The Home Book of American Quotations, ed. Bruce Bohle, which says that other branches of the service also used this slogan. Newsweek, March 8, 1943, attributes this “cocky slogan” to the Army Air Forces.

A higher comparative:

“The impossible we do at once; the miraculous takes a little longer,”

was said to be the motto of the Army Service Forces.—The New York Times, November 4, 1945. This echoes a remark attributed to Charles-Alexandre de Calonne, Louis XVI’s minister of finance. Marie Antoinette asked him something in a tone that brooked no refusal, adding that perhaps it would be difficult. He replied, “If it is only difficult, it is done; if it is impossible, we shall see.”—J. F. Michaud, Biographie Universelle.

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Hurricanes

And the US is the only country that regularly flies into tropical cyclones, the name given to the class of storms that include hurricanes and typhoons. Just saying.

The Condensate-Export Process -- RBN Energy; August 8, 2014

Bakken101: nationwide data -- the number of horizontal wells hit a record high last week. It broke the record set in the previous week ending July 25, 2014. The story at the link focused on the Permian but information has relevance for the Bakken.

Update on the section in Mandaree oil field in which EOG could place "not more than 32 wells in one 640-acre unit." No new wells, but the IPs and cumulative production for wells sited in this section have been updated.

OXY USA production numbers have been updated for all OXY USA wells reported in the Bakken prior to 2012. Link here.  When you get to the link, scroll down, until you get to December, 2012, and then scroll through the production numbers. Maybe one in ten wells has total production greater than 100,000 as of June, 2014, after testing in 2010 or 2011. OXY does have a couple of great wells, but they seem to be far and few between.

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The Los Angeles Times sports: huge story -- regular readers know what this is all about -- Katie Ledecky beats Missy Franklin in 200 freestyle. The lede:

Was there another swimmer with the potential to dominate races?

No one immediately came to mind.

In fact, the only comparison he could think of was Shane Gould, the Australian who held every world freestyle record from the 100 to the 1,500 meters in the early 1970s.

Ledecky's not there yet, but that's how high her potential is, Gemmel said.

Ledecky, just 17, is showing that potential at the 2014 National Championships in Irvine. After dominating the 800-meter freestyle Wednesday, Ledecky followed that up by finishing more than a body length ahead of Missy Franklin to win the 200 freestyle Thursday.

The 200 free isn't usually classified as a sprint, but for the endurance-based Ledecky, "Everything under the 800 meters is a sprint.

When Allison Schmitt, the reigning Olympic champion in the event, didn't qualify for the final, the 200 free became about Franklin, 19, and Ledecky. They are not just America's two best female swimmers, but two of the best in the world, young enough to be the faces of the sport for at least the next Olympic cycle.

Active rigs:

	8/8/2014	08/08/2013	08/08/2012	08/08/2011	08/08/2010
Active Rigs	193	182	199	187	141

RBN Energy: a must-read on the "condensate-export" process.

After a WSJ story broke in late June that the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) had permitted the export of condensates by Enterprise and Pioneer, a good number of additional export requests were received by the agency.  Then a couple of weeks ago, Reuters reported that the BIS had put a “hold” on the approval of any more requests, implying that potential condensate exports were in limbo. 

Turns out, as we understand it, there is no limbo – it is nothing more than an administrative process that takes time for any of these requests while the applicant is providing additional supporting information that the BIS requires.  

There has also been misunderstanding in the industry about the process of receiving BIS approval for exports.  But in fact, approval is a fairly straight forward process of having BIS agree that your product should be classified as something designated EAR99 and assigned a CCATS number – for Common Classification Automatic Tracking System. 

At the link, RBN Energy explores this process and what it takes to get condensates approved for export.

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Poll

It looks like we can take down the poll with regard to the PGA Championship. It appears that Tiger Woods is going in the wrong direction. Starting off +3 going into the second round, he is now +6, with one bogey and just carding a double bogey on hole #6. [Update, he just bogeyed #7; now +7.] So, unless he withdraws before the day is over, it will simply be he missed the cut:

• Miss the cut: 57%
• Make the cut but withdraw: 7%
• Withdraw before the end of the 2nd round: 20%
• Finish, but not in the top 30: 13%
• Win the tournament: 3%

Obviously, "winning the tournament" was tongue-in-cheek or pure idiocy.

*********************************

The White House Channel

See if you can spot the error

The error: The 42 people killed -- that's only since July. Ever since Algore started warning us about "global warming," many more Chinese than just 42 have been killed by giant hornets. The giant hornets are attracted to human sweat, alcohol and sweet flavors and smells. They are especially sensitive to when animals or people run ... so, if attacked, don't run.

"When It Rains, It Pours -- June 24, 2014, After Close Of Business -- Huge News Reports Coming In -- This Is One Of The Biggest -- After Almost Forty Years, The Oil Export Ban Is Lifted

Updates

June 26, 2014: hey, not so fast. RBN Energy provides background, insight, analysis to this story.  Unfortunately RNB posts are generally only available for a short period of time before they disappear, and become available only by subscription. Memo to self: post saved.

Original Post

 
The WSJ is reporting:

The Obama administration cleared the way for the first exports of unrefined American oil in nearly four decades, allowing energy companies to start chipping away at the longtime ban on selling U.S. oil abroad.

In separate rulings that haven't been announced, the Commerce Department gave Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Enterprise Products Partners LP permission to ship a type of ultralight oil known as condensate to foreign buyers.

The buyers could turn the oil into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. The shipments could begin as soon as August and are likely to be small, people familiar with the matter said. It isn't clear how much oil the two companies are allowed to export under the rulings, which were issued since the start of this year.

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security approved the moves using a process known as a private ruling.

I'll never be able to find it but I posted some time ago that this is exactly how I expected this to play out. There would be no way the Obama administration could ban the ban on oil exports, but in "private rulings," taking each case on a case-by-case basis. But here it comes.

This is the report that Bloomberg alluded to in an earlier link this evening. Lots of news all of a sudden: it seems when it comes to the Bakken and the oil industry in general, "when it rains, it pours."

In addition to all this, in the past week Yahoo!In-Place has been posting several pipeline deals, too many to count, and almost none of which I posted simply because too many deals, simply too much to keep track of. But it is starting to make sense. If the Obama administration is giving the light to exports, the operators need a lot more pipelines than currently in place.

Condensates are a huge "by-product" in the Bakken. And if the "Sleeping Giant" is really there, the story becomes even bigger. All of this certainly explains this story that was posted earlier. It explains why EPD is "going north to the Bakken."

A year or two ago, it was the "year of CBR." Quickly, and sooner than I thought, it looks like we may be heading for the "year of the pipeline."

And don't forget the "Sleeping Giant."

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Going North to the Bakken; The Rush Is On

North To Alaska, Johnny Horton