Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Chart Of The Day -- Probably Nothing To Worry About -- And Then Just Like That, The US Becomes Provider Of Last Resort -- March 4, 2026

Locator: 50126SAUDI.

Link here

Democratic spokesperson says US no longer #1 power in the world. Okay.


It will be interesting to see US oil exports over the next few months. Link here.


 

Reminiscing -- RAF Lakeheath -- March 4, 2026

Locator: 50125USAF.

We were assigned to the 48th Fighter Wing, 1986 - 1989, primary a/c, the F-111D. Right seat: WSO (weapons system operator).

Now, from wiki and Google Gemini (information from those sources are somewhat confusing and not necessarily accurate and/or current. 

The 48th Fighter Wing (48 FW) is part of the United States Air Force's Third Air Force, assigned to Headquarters Air Command Europe and United States Air Forces in Europe. 

It is based at RAF Lakenheath, England, near Cambridge, northeast of London. 

The 48 FW is the only McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle wing based in Europe which hosts two F-15E Strike Eagle squadrons. [F-15 Eagle and F-15E Strike Eagle designations used interchangeably.]

The wing also hosts two Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II squadrons. The 48 FW was given the name "Statue of Liberty Wing" on 4 July 1954 and remains the only U.S. Air Force unit with both a name and a numerical designation. 


48th Operations Group

  • four squadrons of F-35A & F-15E a/c
  • squadrons: 492nd, 493rd, 494th, and 495th --
    • 492nd and 494th: F-15E Strike Eagle, not the newer F-15EX Eagle II. 
      • specifically, the 492nd ("Madhatters/Bowlers") and 494th ("Panthers") Fighter Squadrons fly upgraded F-15E Strike Eagles;
      • these are the only permanently forward-deployed F-15Es in Europe. 
      • F-15E Strike Eagles, some airframes feature the advanced Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS).
    • 493rd ("Grim Reapers") and 495th ("Valkyries")
      • are the premier USAF fighter units operating the F-35A Lightning II
      • 5th generation capabilities
      • the 493rd transitioned from F-15Cs to F-35A; prior to the F-15Cs, the unit operated F-111s, as did all RAF units in the 1980s 
      • the 495th was the first overseas F-35A unit (2021)
  • F-15C/D retirement: the older F-15C/D Eagle models have been removed from service at RAF Lakenheath and returned to the United States.
  • transition: the F-15Es at Lakenheath are being replaced by F-35A Lightning II aircraft 
  • with the 492nd and 494th squadrons transitioned in 2021, well ahead of the earlier proposed date of 2027-2028 (transitioned from the legacy F-15 C/D models
    • planned 54 F-35As (about 14 a/c per squadron)
    • this is a little confusing but Google Gemini says the first F-35As arrived 
      • December 15, 2021, 495th FS 
      • when I was there the 495th was the training unit; the other three squadrons, operational 
      • April, 2022, 493rd FS
      • operational: as of 2026 

Broadcom: Reports Earnings After The Market Closes Today -- March 4, 2026

Locator: 50124AVGO.

The numbers will be staggering.

That doesn't mean the stock price will reflect those numbers.  

Current price target

  • March 4, 2026, pre-market: $317
  • price target by one analyst: lowered to $340 (from $375)

Link here to Yahoo!Finance from The Street. 

Some data points:

  • price target: $340
  • AVGO has gained almost 60% in the past year
    • compare with SPDR S&P 500: up 15% in same period
    • has outpaced the S&P 500 but has also outpaced all but one of the Magnificent 7 
    • Google Gemini failed to answer the question correctly
      • the only Mag 7 company that beat AVGO: GOOG, which is up 80%.
      • the others:
        • NVDA: up 46%
        • TSLA: up 38%
        • AAPL: up 9%
        • MSFT: flat
        • AMZN: up 2%
        • META: DOWN 2%
  • the stocks being the biggest winners are thanks to their partnership with Broadcom
    • Broadcom helped Google build its TPUs
    • outlook for 1Q26, AVGO:
      • revenue: $19.1 billion
      • adjusted EBITDA: 67% of projected revenue
      • non-GAAP EPS: $2.00
  • Anthropic's planned procurement of up to 1 million TPUs resulted in $21 billion rack orders for Broadcom

Link here to Motley Fool.

  • share price should soar this year;
  • 1Q26 revenue prediction: $19.1 billion; 28% y/y;
  • backlog at end of 2025: $162 billion (which includes $73 billion for its AI chips)
  • guidance: 2026 revenue estimate of almost $100 billion, 53% increase y/y
  • Broadcom's 12-month median price target: $458; 43% jump from current price

Link here to Benzinga.

  • "record revenue but stock is looking "on the ropes."
  • EPS projected: $1.88 up from $1.60

Dividend: raised its dividend last quarter; no raise in dividend expected today.

Day 5 -- Wednesday -- March 4, 2026

Locator: 50123B.

Ecuador

Focus on dividends:

  • SRE: raised dividend; I believe that was previously posted:
  • CSX: huge raise in quarterly dividend; 20%? I need to re-check.

Is it just me or does it seem we're near a tipping point here? In a good way.

Trump's opposition, on almost any subject:

  • really ignorant (memo to self: look up difference between "ignorant" and "stupid"), or simply,
  • really political? 
  • the tipping point for me -- when someone suggested "the US is no longer the #1 world power.
    • he (and, yes, it was a he) obviously has no clue; 
  • the second tipping point for me -- the NYT obituary, Ali Khamenie
    • the avuncular leader with a warm smile
    • I'll have to go back and see the NYT obituary on a guy named Adolf
  • one wonders if Trump's political adversaries would accept Cuba with nuclear arsenal; ballistic missiles, drones, and a Cuban navy? That's what Israel was obviously facing, and now we see that Iran is willing to take on the entire Mideast; imagine taking on nuclear-armed Iran?  

Operation EPIC FURY: tracked here

Tehran: Achilles heel -- water -- chatbot -- Tehran water crisis.

  • this will likely be humanitarian crisis
  • very possible military operation will turn into humanitarian crisis

Markets:

  • oil: ho-hum
    • does anyone in the US really get the feeling oil is a big issue?
    • natural gas: this is the real issue 
  • US equity market: ho-hum
  • Broadcom: to report earnings today
  • stand-alone post pending 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Remember all that concern about the aging shale fields becoming more gassy? See RBN Energy below. 

WTI: flat overnight.

New wells reporting:

  • Thursday, March 5, 2026: 7 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 113 for the year,
    • None.
  • Wednesday, March 4, 2026: 7 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 113 for the year,
    • 41601, conf, BR, Sivertson 6D, 
    • 41373, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-LW-155-94-0618H-1, 

RBN Energy: short-term priorities emerge as global demand for natural gas heats up. Link here. Archived.

The world is hungry for more natural gas. The newly reintroduced Current Policies Scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees global demand rising from today’s 400 Bcf/d to about 475 Bcf/d by 2050, roughly in line with other notable forecasts from the likes of BP and ExxonMobil. 

[75 Bcf/d divided by 20 years = less than 4 Bcf/day increase. That seems incredibly low, considering the "fourth industrial revolution.] 

OPEC is even more bullish, predicting demand will reach 540 Bcf/d by midcentury. Any way you slice it, that’s a lot of natural gas. So, where will it come from and what are the biggest issues facing the market? Those are among the major questions addressed at RBN’s recent GasCon 2026 conference and the focus of today’s RBN blog. 

Warning: Today’s blog includes some blatant plugs for a newly available replay of our event in Houston.

As we did at the conference, let’s start with a little background about where things stand today. 

Global natural gas production in 2024 was a little more than 400 Bcf/d, with the U.S. (green layer in left graph in Figure 1 below) accounting for about 110 Bcf/d, or more than one-quarter of total supplies. Canada’s 20 Bcf/d (red layer) put total North American production at about 130 Bcf/d. 

After the U.S., Russia (pink layer) is the next-biggest producer, with the rest supplied by Australia (yellow layer), Qatar (light-orange layer), and several other smaller producers within Other OCED (light-purple layer), Other OPEC (dark-orange layer) and others (blue layer). 

But these numbers don’t tell the whole story because some countries — notably the U.S., Russia, Qatar and Australia — produce substantially more gas than they consume. In 2024, U.S. demand for natural gas was 91 Bcf/d (orange bar section at left side of right graph), leaving 13 Bcf/d available for export (blue bar section), primarily as LNG.