Target -- NYT -- No Paywall -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44758BUD.
Locator: 44758TGT.

Generally, NY Times has a strong paywall ... not this time. 

I did not encounter a paywall accessing this story.

Well, this is awkward:

Market:

Who's next?

Five DUCs Reported As Completed; No New Permits; Six Permits Renewed -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44757B.

Active rigs: 35.

WTI: $71.74.

Natural gas: $2.270.

No new permits.

Six permits renewed:

• Foundation Energy Management: two Cerkoney permits and four Little Mo Federal permits; the Cerkoney permits, Tree Top, Billings County; the Little Mo Federal permits, Ash Coulee, Billings County.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35527, 842, WPX, Two Shields Butte,
• 39432, 2,662, Grayson Mill, Margaret 5-8 XW,
• 39045, 686, CLR, Kelling 5-4H1,
• 39048, 1,018, CLR, Kelling 8-4H,
• 37828, 0, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 TFH-ULW,

Current Events Wrap -- Nothing About Oil, Nothing About The Bakken -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44756CUREVNTS.

ChatGPT: book blurbs. Link here. Great examples of how ChatGPT will change ... everything.

Mars: quite an international story. Link here.

On February 9, 2021, the United Arab Emirates became the first Arab country to reach Mars when the Hope probe successfully entered into orbit around the red planet. Seven years earlier, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, president of the UAE and ruler of Abu Dhabi, and Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE and ruler of Dubai, announced that the Emirates Mars Mission would be developed by the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC), working in conjunction with international partners and funded by the UAE Space Agency.

The Cold War trained us to think of spaceflight—especially ambitious Mars missions—as something a nation does to signal that it has developed a “space economy” and possesses the expertise and technological capabilities to build and operate rockets, missiles, and spy satellites. Viewed through a geopolitical lens, it is a type of highly publicized technological flexing— a gun show. But this was not quite the case for the UAE.

Emirati engineers designed and built the Hope spacecraft in Boulder, Colorado, in collaboration with the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder, with support from Arizona State University and the University of California, Berkeley. Working side by side with LASP engineers, Hope team members learned skills that will serve them in later missions. Once Hope was completed, a Ukrainian transport plane delivered it to Dubai for testing. Finally, Hope flew to Japan for launch, where the UAE arranged with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for launch on a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries H-IIA rocket from Japan’s Tanegashima Island launch facility.

Race admissions. Link here

It is widely expected that by this summer, the United States Supreme Court will overturn long-standing precedents allowing the consideration of race as one factor among many in university admissions. The current legal regime goes back to the Court’s decision (Regents of University of California v. Bakke) in 1978 that banned racial quotas while allowing consideration of race for the purpose of creating a diverse educational environment. Although the law has evolved since then, almost all universities have relied on the Bakke framework to support their strategies to educate a diverse citizenry.

Voyage of the botanists, down the Grand Canyon. Link here.

On 20 June 1938, a trio of small boats carrying six people set off from Green River, Utah, with the goal of running the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon. No previous Colorado River expedition, not even those led by famed explorer John Wesley Powell, excited national news coverage in quite the way this one did, for this river party included two women. The brainchild of University of Michigan botanist Elzada Clover, who invited doctoral student Lois Jotter to join, this expedition was scientific, focused on plants. No woman had done anything like this before.

Ancient history of kissing. Link here. I had / have no interest in the subject matter per se, but the dates / dating (no pun intended) in the article was what interested me.

Recent studies maintain that the first known record of human romantic-sexual kissing originates in a Bronze Age manuscript deriving from South Asia (India), tentatively dated to 1500 BCE (1). Yet, a substantial corpus of overlooked evidence challenges this premise because lip kissing was documented in ancient Mesopotamia and Egypt from at least 2500 BCE onward. Because this behavior did not emerge abruptly or in a specific society but appears to have been practiced in multiple ancient cultures over several millennia, the kiss cannot be regarded as a sudden biological trigger causing a spread of specific pathogens, as recently proposed (2). Further understanding of the history of kissing in human societies—and its secondary effect on disease transmission—can be gained from a case study of sources from ancient Mesopotamia (modern-day Iraq and Syria).

North Dakota Farmers Watching Closely? May 25, 2023

Locator: 44755EPA.
Locator: 44755CWA.

Maybe more on this later.

Breaking.

THE SUPREME COURT LIMITED the reach of the Clean Water Act, with a majority holding that only wetlands that have a continuous surface connection to a river, lake, or other major waterway are covered by the law, Greg Stohr reports.

In a split on reasoning, the court said there wasn’t enough of a connection to a nearby lake from the land owned by the Sacketts to require a permit under the Clean Water Act. “We hold that the CWA extends to only those wetlands that are as a practical matter indistinguishable from waters of the United States,” Justice Samuel Alito, wrote for five members of the court.

The court’s three liberal justices and Justice Brett Kavanaugh said they would have agreed with the Sacketts but on narrower grounds. The Biden administration had argued that the tributary across the road brought the land within the purview of the Clean Water Act.

The decision, a victory for property-rights advocates, could let developers build more new homes and give companies a freer hand in the discharge of pollutants without getting federal approval.

Link here. 

The US Supreme Court didn't "roll back" anything. It interpreted the law, focusing on the phrase "extends to all navigable waters."

The SCOTUS ruling came close to being a unanimous ruling in favor of ND farmers.

Apple iPad -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44754AAPL.

 

A reader asked my thoughts on buying a new/refurbished iPad for his 9 y/o and 11 y/o daughters.

 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply (not proofread; subject to change). The recommendation based on "best bang for buck"; second generation pencil; and, screen size):

You can't go wrong on any iPad.

You don't need cellular. Wi-fi, as you know, is everywhere.

I would get the largest screen out there, (but not the iPad Pro). After that, it almost doesn't matter.  In other words, don't buy the iPad Mini.

(I assume we're only talking Apple.)

Any Apple product with "PRO" in its name is way, way more than tweeners need. I believe the iPad we have is a "PRO" but didn't come with that name -- based on screen size, but not the new chip.

Memory: I've never bought an iPad with a lot of memory. So, go for "base" models with 64 GB.

You have to get a pencil, unfortunately, but if you want, you can wait. Kids don't use the pencil as much as adults.

If you get a pencil, get generation 2 ($129); not generation 1 ($99). I'll explain later.

(The new iPads -- see below -- don't accept generation 2 -- don't ask!)

That leads you to the "old" iPad (the only one that has not been updated) but still has the M1 chip. [The "pro" also uses the 2nd generation pencil.]

Best choice for these daughters with eye on cast: the iPad Air, starting at $599 (see below).

Color doesn't matter.

At Amazon, currently available at $499!

***********************
iPencil

My suggestion.

I don't know if you were considering one iPad for each. If so, I would buy one iPad Air and let them play with it this summer, and then see if. you need a second iPad and if you need the pencil.

Amazon also has Apple iPencils, second generation at discount prices -- but make sure they are genuine Apple pencils. Refurbished is okay.

***********

More later, if this raises more questions.

*************

Refurbished -- great option if available.

*************

AppleCare / Warranty: I've never bought AppleCare.

Comment: if money is no object, the 12.9" iPad is what I have, absolutely love it, and Sophia uses it all the time. But a 10.9" for a tweener might be easier to hold anyway. But I think the iPad 12.9" I have is now the iPad Pro. Don't know for sure. 

***********************
Reader Response

At Amazon. 

My reply:

I would buy this is in a heartbeat!

It takes the 1st generation pencil -- but that's not a big deal by any means.

Isn't that amazing? $269 for top of the line iPad!

Look how deeply Amazon is cutting Apple iPad costs

PRICE WAR! Everyone Wins! May 25, 2023

Locator: 44753BUD.

From a reader in Minnesota today.

$7.99 / 24 cans = 33 cents a can.

You know, if we get the same deal here in Texas, I'll start ....

... LOL. I've never had a Bud Lite in my life and won't drink it even if it's given away. 

If I drink beer it's either a craft beer or a Bitburger.

Micahlucas -- CLR

Locator: 10001MICAH.

The wells:

• 39868, Micahlucas 3-5HSL,
• 39869, Micahlucas 4-5HSL1,

• 21833, Micahlucas 2-5H, 

• 17411, Lorin 1-5H,

• 39136, Micahlucas 5-5H,
• 39137, Micahlucas 6-5H1,
• 39138, Micahlucas 7-5H,
• 39139, Micahlucas 8-5H1,
• 39140, Micahlucas 9-5H,
• 39141, Micahlucas 10-5H1,
• 25167, Micahlucas 3-5H,
• 25166, Micahlucas 4-5H,

• 39162, Micahlucas 11-5H,
• 39163, Micahlucas 12-5H1,
• 39164, Micahlucas 13-5HSL,
• 39165, Micahlucas 14-5HSL1,

a

US Recession Has Been Moved To The Right -- Now, 2028 -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44752ECON.
Locator: 44752JOBS.
Locator: 44752GDP.
Locator: 44752WTI.

Updates

May 26, 2023: link here.

Later, 11:31 p.m. CT: by the way, which sector is most affected by higher interest rates (excluding the housing market which is too decentralized for investors)? Start-up EV manufacturers. We're already seeing start-up EVs ready to go under; higher interest rates -- especially a second increase in rates from here -- will kill start-up EV manufacturers and delay profitability for legacy, deep-pocket automobile manufacturers. Invest accordingly.

Later, 11:31 p.m. CT: the "numbers" this morning mean that the Fed will "raise rates" at least two more times. Does anyone need corroborative data? WTI dropped almost 5% after the numbers came out.

Original Post 

A reminder: it would take ten more 25-bp increases to bring "us" back to historical norms, and somethhing those with cash in money market funds would like to see.

Link here.

NVDA -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44751SC.

NVDA:

• CPU: gaming
• DCP: AI (ChatGPT)

NVDA's current mix:

• CPU: 95%
  
• DCP: 5%

Will switch to:

• CPU: 5%
• DCP: 95%

Two comments:

• this "switch" will happen at lightning speed; and,
• this is a ten-year "play"

Gaming:

• surged during Covid-19 lockdown -- 2022 - 2022 (full calendar years)
• plummeted after end of Covid-19 lockdown
• hunch: gaming will recover
• hunch: Apple's headset will benefit indirectly, it won't be obvious, and will take time
• headset:
• current target: developers, not consumers (analogy: the smartwatch)
• target, long term: consumers; price needs to come down relative to value of the dollar

In addition, Nvidia is now also competing with cloud services. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Now, that you know all that, the following headlines make sense and one can put them in context:

At the open:

INTC: on a day the NASDAQ surges with tech surging, particulary chip companies, INTC falls another 5% today:

Short Squeeze? May 25, 2023

Locator: 44751SC.

I haven't watched CNBC in months, but I will watch a bit this morning.

*************************
Debt Ceiling

Thoughts later.

Taking Sophia to school. Her last day of school today.

A Goldilocks Economy -- Thursday, May 25, 2023

Locator: 44750B. 

CNBC: no sign of a slowing economy

Jobs:

• first time claims much lower than forecast
• first time unemployment cllaims: 229,000 vs 245,000 forecast 

GDP: 1Q23 (second reading)

• 1.3% vs 1.%  estimate

China:

• Covid-19, variant XBB, surging
• 65 million cases / week through the month of June
• China no longer tests; no lock downs; essentially ignores.
• will delay China's invasion of Taiwan by at least a month
  

Germany: enters recession -- 

Tech: How high will it go?

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $72.84.

Natural gas: $2.364.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Friday, May 26, 2023: 45 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 352 for the year
39169, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-13HZ,
38968, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-5,

Thursday, May 25, 2023: 43 for the month; 95 for the quarter, 350 for the year
39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIIU 5-31H1,
39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL,

RBN Energy: US crude oil and refined products exports aree driveen by production growth.

Consider this fact: Three of every five barrels of crude oil produced in the U.S. are exported, either as crude oil or in the form of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or other petroleum products. Sure, large volumes of crude and products are still being imported, but the net import number is dwindling toward zero — and if you count NGLs (ethane, propane, etc.) in the liquid fuels balance, the U.S. has been a net exporter since 2020. Yes, folks, exports are now calling the shots, and the role of exports is only going to become larger over the next few years. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on crude oil and product exports and why they matter more now than ever.

Before the Shale Revolution changed everything, exports of U.S.-sourced crude oil and petroleum products registered only as blips on the radar, a few hundred thousand barrels a day in total. But the sharp rise in U.S. oil production through the 2010s — and, importantly, the lifting of the ban on most crude exports in December 2015 — ushered in a new era. Lately, it’s become a regular thing to see 4 MMb/d or more of oil shipped out of marine terminals along the Gulf Coast, and refineries — especially those in Texas and Louisiana — are exporting a substantial portion of their output too.