Some 'Splainin' To Do -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45944BRK. Tags: BRK, Berkshire.

Link here. Link here. Link here.

Mark-to-market.https://www.sec.gov/files/marktomarket123008.pdf.

Chart: link here.

Graphs:

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For Traders Only -- BUD -- 12% In One Month -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45943INV. 

XFinity Championship -- Phoenix -- A Great Finish -- Custer Wins -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45942XFINITY. 

Tomorrow: 2:00 p.m. CT (?). Remember to set your clocks back at midnight tonight.

Tonight:The four competing for the championship are running 1 - 2 - 3 - 4, with 28 to go:

• Custer
• Nemechek: - 0.260
  
• Allgaier: - 1.83
  
• Mayer: - 3.365
  

Now, with ~ 20 to go, #24 into the wall; a yellow. Just what Custer did not need. Re-start. Place your bets.

• Hemric: lead 
• Custer: - 0.00
  
• Allgair: - 0.00
  
• Nemechek: - 0.00
  
• Hill: - 0.00
  
• Mayer: - 0.00

Now, after the re-start, with 10 to go:

• Custer: lead
  
• Allgaier: - 0.308
  
• Nemechek: - 0.442
  
• Mayer: - 0.737

With 5 to go:

• Custer: lead
  
• Nemehek: - 0.733
  
• Allgaier: - 1.68
  
• Mayer: - 2.135

Yellow; #8 spins out, with 5 to go. At the re-start, place your bets again. It will go green, white, next flag, finish:

• Custer: 0.00
  
• Nemehek: - 0.00
  
• Allgaier: - 0.00
  
• Mayer: - 0.00

Winner: CUSTER!

Nemachek faded ...  not even in the top five! Finishes 28th!

Apple: The Heat Is On -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45941APPLE.

Link here. 

Microchips are hot. Literally.

As engineers cram more functions and power into chips, they require more energy and, thus, produce more heat than ever before. To beat that heat, which limits the performance of the computers and other gadgets we use, Silicon Valley is looking to some surprising materials.

Chip companies large and small are experimenting with slices of synthetic diamond, pieces of ultrapure glass or even an obscure material only recently synthesized in quantities sufficient to test its properties. Heat is an old problem for engineers.

The first practical lightbulb by Thomas Edison was a success largely because he prevented it from burning out quickly.

Traditional gas engines need oil and coolant to prevent a breakdown, and nuclear reactors famously require cooling to avoid a meltdown.

If you have an old enough laptop — one that can get uncomfortably hot on your legs—you’ve already got an intimate understanding of the primary barrier to making computers faster.

“The hard limit on chip performance is the maximum temperature on a chip,” says Andy Bechtolsheim, who co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982 and was the company’s chief hardware designer.

Silicon microchips can’t run any hotter than about 221 degrees Fahrenheit or they become unreliable. To achieve higher speeds without a breakdown, chip developers aim to dissipate heat—or move it away from the source—as quickly as possible.

Apple Silicon -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45940APPLE.

Bottom line:

• Apple is competing with itself.
• as such, earnings will be a drag for two to three years.
• for investors: no rush to accumulate shares; be methodical, consistent, and stay the course.
  
• the gap between Apple and Android will show itself to the average user no sooner than five years from now.

Apple Silicon: the complete guide.

Apple Silicon: ZDNet — a really good explanation.

Apple Silicon: pre-M3.

I "break down' Apple's $3-trillon market cap into three sectors;

• hardware, consumer retail 
• services (which, by the way, set all-time record sales in 4Q23)
• chips (Apple Silicon)
  

Link here. This is a huge, huge, huge deal.

I could be wrong, but my hunch is that Apple designs more families of chips than any other chip designer, and their chips are tailored for specific hardware products:

• smart phones
• wearables
• the cloud
• spatial computing (Vision Pro)
• laptops
• desktops
• servers
  

By the way, before I forget, my hunch is Apple will use Vision Pro technology to turn the 24-inch (and hopefully, the 27-inch) iMac into "spatial computers: one hard screen; multiple virtual screens, and no headset. [November 6, 2023: Apple says there won’t be a 27-inch iMac.]

Now, back to Apple Silicon.

I can remember the days ComputerWorld did not publish articles about Apple.

Now, see this.

The first M3 benchmark figures are showing up, which means it's a good time to look at why (and how) Apple already won the processor wars.

Apple introduced the first three members of its M3 processor family this week: M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max.

The M3 Ultra (two M3's side-by-side) may show later if the company feels there is demand.

We’ve also seen the first claimed Geekbench benchmarks for two of these chips:

M3 chip: Single-core performance of 3,030 and multi-core performance of 11,694.

M3 Max: Single-core performance of roughly 3,000 and multi-core performance of around 21,000.

It is important to note that this degree of performance is being achieved in computers that use just 50 watts of power at peak performance, deliver 100% performance for up to 18 hours when using a battery, and barely get warm.

The chips already seem superior to Intel’s 16-core Meteor Lake processors, which top out at around 13,000 multicore, but use more energy.

Apple’s new chips also raise the bar against Qualcomm, which just last week introduced a processor that almost competes with Apple’s now old M2 processors.

Sure, while you will find more performant chips, these won’t fit in the same slim Mac chassis, generally use much more energy, and cost a lot to obtain.

Geekbench: how it works.

Processor benchmarks: link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory.

 All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

 

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Energy: The 21st Century Will Belong To America -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45939LNG.

Which country now exports the most natural gas in the known universe?

It would be interesting to see the "strategic" briefings the movers and shakers in Washington, DC, get with regard to US debt, deficits, and energy reserves.

Link here.

The Road To Germany -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45938GERMANY.

I've always considered the amount of energy per capita that a country uses is an indication of the economic health of that country.

Welcome to the circus, once again.

Germany:

• in deep doo-doo; de-industrialization is the new "normal";
• now reliant on two sources of energy:
• domestic coal -- and "dirty" coal, at that
• imported LNG, most from the US and Qatar
• risk of civil unrest

Link here.

From Charles Kennedy. 

Technology: Barron's Top Story -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45937TECH.

Link here.

In light of this week's earnings report by Apple, this is a most interesting article on so many levels, but especially with regard to timing.

With regard to Apple, my hunch, the three top Apple hardware releases next year (2024):

• Vision Pro: to be met with mixed reaction, mostly negative; 
• will be a drag on earnings for at least three years;
• industry will love it; "you and I" -- not so much
  
• Apple iPhone 16
• possibly better received than the "15"
  
• a 27-inch iMac geared for streaming and gaming
• one word: huge 
• this will make Tim Cook look like a genius
  

Now, to the linked article:

As sales of personal computers soared during the pandemic, you could almost hear PC makers saying, “We told you so.”

For years, laptops and desktops had remained technology’s workhorse, even with most of the industry’s attention moving to smartphones and the cloud.

With everyone stuck at home in 2020 and 2021, global PC sales surged nearly 25%. Then offices reopened and the upgrade cycle came to an abrupt halt.

By 2022, PC sales were falling once again. This time, PC makers like Dell Technologies, HP Inc., and Lenovo Group are taking a different approach to rev up sales: The PC business is going all in on artificial intelligence.

AI's big opportunity goes beyond the cloud. 

“The killer app of AI,” says Dell Vice Chairman Jeff Clarke, “will be that you’ll love your PC again.”

The working theory of AI has been that it requires big, powerful computers, driven by hard-to-find graphics processors, primarily from Nvidia.

All of that computing—the creation of large-language models plus their continuing use—happens in the cloud.

Meanwhile, laptops, desktop PCs, and even mobile phones become simply access points to the cloud, where AI services like ChatGPT do their computationally intensive magic.

Even before AI, consumer and business laptops had largely become dumb terminals for using online platforms from Amazon.com, Microsoft, Alphabet‘s Google, Meta Platforms, and Apple.

Documents are in the cloud, email is in the cloud, photos are in the cloud, music is in the cloud.

“The network is the computer,” Sun Microsystems computer scientist John Gage presciently said 40 years ago.

PC makers are looking to change that paradigm. They are readying AI personal computers, with the first models set to arrive in the next few months. The microprocessor companies are excited, too. The common goal is to enable PC users to run generative AI applications right on their desktops, whether connected to the network or not.

Unfortunately I have to leave it at that. 

 So much more at the link. 

We will come back to this.

That Word Keeps Popping Up -- "Goldilocks" -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45936JOBS.

More from the top economic story posted yesterday by The WSJ:

 "Goldilocks Job Report"

Their Words, Note Mine

Later, 10:12 p.m. PT: link here. 

From the linked article:

The S&P 500 rallied Friday, capping its best weekly performance since November 2022, after the latest monthly jobs report suggested the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate raising campaign is working.

The broad index gained 0.9%, bringing its gains for the week to 5.9%.

The index is up 14% this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 200 points, or 0.7%, on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%. Those indexes also recorded their biggest weekly percentage gains of the year.

New economic data and the Fed’s latest policy decision gave investors hope that the economy is pulling back enough for inflation to abate without falling into a recession—and that interest rates could be near their peak.

The October jobs report showed hiring slowed last month. Employers added 150,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department reported Friday, half the prior month’s gain and below economists’ expectations.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth eased.

“The jobs report was a Goldilocks report,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “We may be getting a soft landing.”

All but one of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose Friday. The energy sector slipped 1% as Brent crude dropped 2.3% to $84.89 a barrel.

All but one of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose Friday. The energy sector slipped 1% as Brent crude dropped 2.3% to $84.89 a barrel.

Unemployment Numbers -- October, 2023

Locator: 45935JOBS.

Link here.

Laser-Focused On Dividends: Chord Energy Dividend -- November 3, 2023

Locator: 45934DIV.

Three different sources, as of today, November 3, 2023:

Oasis Peregrine Wells Update -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45933B.

These are incredibly good wells.

The wells, all remain confidential:

• 38780, 19813.1, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 2B, Todd, t--; cum --;
  
• 38781, 17181.1, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 3B, Todd, t--; cum --;
• 38782, 17180.1, conf, Peregrine 5401 42-24 4B, Todd, t--; cum --;

Todd oil field: Williston.

A lot of Williston folks are eagerly waiting for these wells to come off confidential status.

38780:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	32841	29276
8-2023	40069	37114
7-2023	27680	23672
6-2023	28801	22956
5-2023	10057	7986

38781:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	23741	21881
8-2023	24660	22052
7-2023	21882	18979
6-2023	21276	17702
5-2023	3414	2728

38782:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	25323	22069
8-2023	17601	14793
7-2023	17796	14336
6-2023	21014	16932
5-2023	2832	2394

An Open Letter To Readers -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- Not About The Bakken -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45932ARCH.

Not ready for prime time. 

Wow, I'm in a great mood; a great day for traveling.

These five-day quick trips are the cat's meow. So, far in the past month or so:

• a five-day trip (by car) from Dallas, TX, to Philadelphia, and back with stops at Gettysburg and Shiloh and as many Buc-ee's as we could fit in; then, 
• a four-day car-trip from Dallas, TX, to Chattanooga / Nashville, TN, for a couple of events; and,
• now this past week, five days in Portland, OR, to see the grandsons.

There is something good to say about each trip. The Portland trip seems to be the most relaxing, the most comfortable. The trip took me back to the days when I traveled everywhere by public and commercial transportation.

I did not look forward to my trip to Portland: it was by air and I hate to travel by air. Although, I'm always pleasantly surprised how nice the experience really is if one takes advantage of what it has to offer.

I return to DFW today and am now at PDX, at a McDonald's where I had a full breakfast for $3.98 vs about $9.00 for something much smaller -- and a much, much longer line -- at Starbucks.

Two F-15's just landed and have just taxied past McDonald's. Great memories. The F-15 was my primary a/c in the USAF, all of those F-15 days in Europe. My F-111 days were in England. 

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Portland

Portland remains as wonderful as ever. It's great for one-week visitors but it would be too expensive and weather too inclement for me to live here permanently. I do too much walking and biking. And swimming.

I assume the homeless situation is as bad as ever but I did not notice it. I stay with the grandsons out in east Portland, on the edge of Gresham. I did not get down to Powell Book Store this trip. Insert sad face here. Halloween with the grandsons is now an annual event. Weather was perfect.

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MAX

Times;

• depart, 9:07:  122nd Avenue NE
• transfer, 9:20: 99th Avenue NE / transit center

• transfer, 9:25: 99th Avenue NE / transit center
• arrive, 9:35: airport.

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American Airlines

Non-stop, DFW to PXD and back. In off-season and the flight to PXD was a full plane which surprised me. Fare about $400 round trip with no baggage and no preferred seating. I've noticed, over the years, passengers in the seats in the back of the plane arrive about the same time as passengers in first class. Albert Einstein might have something to say about that.

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Addictions

They say some folks are addicted to porn, others addicted to alcohol, and still others too gambling. I assume there are folks addicted to all three. I wouldn’t know. My addictions: blogging and investing. Hobbies: biking and reading.

Other quasi-addictions / obsessions: Lego, Apple (not as an investment, but as a company). 

Others: Duolingo (1,138-day streak). Spanish.

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Reading

I have a blog devoted to "literature." Our daughter will home-school the grandsons until at least high school. She is always looking for educational resources. She was particularly happy with my blog on the evolution of story-telling.

As usual, I read several books at a time, but I always have a "go-to" book at any time. Currently my "go-to" book is a 1000-page softcover, A History of the Jews in America. My takeaway from this book, 104 pages into the story: if every culture had the work ethic of the Ashkenazi Jew the world would be a different place. 

Reading the book melds three of my favorite activities: reading, reminiscing, and traveling.

I am simply amazed at all the locations that pop up in the book that relate to me in a very, very meaningful way. Two examples:

• Gettysburg; and,
• Filene's. LOL.

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Investing

Let's see. Much, much more to write but I have to head to my gate. I will post two screenshots, both comparing share prices of Southern Copper (SCCO) and Berkshire. The first is a one-yer look-back; the second is a five-year look-back.

Note that SCCO pays around 5% and always has (?) whereas BRK pays no dividend.

For five years, the average price of SCCO, I suppose, has run about $60 per share; 5% x an original $10,000 investment would have paid about $2,500 over those five or six years. I don't know. Needs to be fact-checked.

And, of course, all those dividends, about $2,500 would have been re-invested in the market.

Now, the graphs:

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Dividends