The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 12/24/22

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Top US Energy Story -- 2022

Even Bloomberg had to report this.

Saudi's Prince MBS: "We have so much oil, we burn it to produce electricity. No one else can do that."

New England: "Here, hold my (maple syrup) bucket."

From Bloomberg:

The six-state grid relied on oil for at least a third of its power generation and for as much as 40% at times on Saturday, ISO New England data show.

Natural gas provided as little as 15% by mid-afternoon. [This suggests to me that New England is literally running out of natural gas.]
The region typically only uses oil to meet demand on the hottest and coldest days of the year as back up. Heading into the peak evening hours, New England issued a series of grid alerts warning of a possible shortfall of power reserves and asked market members to voluntarily conserve electricity.
The operator later said it’s trying to buy emergency supplies from market participants or neighboring regions. The situation is so tight that prices jumped to more than the $2,000 a megawatt-hour price cap on Saturday evening. This time last week, spot power was in the $30 range.

Meanwhile, ERCOT -- Texas -- is doing just fine. Thank you for asking.

I Can Die Happy -- December 24, 2022

Right down the street from where I live. LOL.

Links everywhere.

But the big story: now "they're" upset that McDonald's is putting entry-level, maximum-wage earners out of work. Not true. The stores will still need one manager (who will work from home) and one sous-chef to oversee the robotic kitchen.

The big question? Why did McDonald's choose Ft Worth as the first locale for this new restaurant.

Connecting the dots:

McDonald's sells beef
the beef capital of the US: Texas, specifically, Ft Worth
name one other city known for its "stockyard" -- LOL.

So Much Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- December 24, 2022

************************
So Much Work Left In The Bakken

During the boom, 250 active rigs and 2,000 wells drilled per year.

Now, 45 active rigs and 600 wells being drilled per year.

Production in 2022 will greatly exceed production in 2010.

Above, the Antelope-Sanish may be the best field in the Bakken.

Below, the Bailey oil field.

The well:

16611, 428, MRO, Carlson 21-29H, Bailey, t10/07; cum 500K 10/22;

Initial production, 2007:

BAKKEN	5-2008	31	5219	5598	962	3207	3207
BAKKEN	4-2008	30	3968	3657	727	1789	1789
BAKKEN	3-2008	16	2439	2517	1058	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2008	29	3597	3430	757	327	327
BAKKEN	1-2008	31	4122	4310	914	227	227
BAKKEN	12-2007	31	4924	5089	1207	540	540
BAKKEN	11-2007	30	5139	4948	1075	1183	1183
BAKKEN	10-2007	29	7644	7989	2493	1202	1202
BAKKEN	9-2007	4	1794	967	1240	469	469

Re-frack, 2015:

BAKKEN	9-2015	30	12644	12581	5793	9432	6491	1408
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	10030	10121	5034	8076	6529	302
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	15224	15209	8612	12745	10588	344
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	18132	18447	12833	14088	9918	2050
BAKKEN	5-2015	22	3381	3205	3485	2760	1259	1020
BAKKEN	4-2015	18	2298	2292	3025	1492	154	984
BAKKEN	3-2015	11	1343	1106	1947	957	144	611
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	1	2	230	0	1	0	1
BAKKEN	12-2014	4	107	0	20	146	65	49

Current production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	2148	2095	1167	3284	227	2686
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	2103	2114	1181	3278	2909	8
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	2171	2098	1215	3393	3017	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	2294	2461	1263	3424	3032	6
BAKKEN	6-2022	28	2238	2232	1202	2656	1383	929
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	2695	2720	1330	2783	1349	1067
BAKKEN	4-2022	19	1173	1037	808	1725	1340	194
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	3016	2929	1521	3486	3020	30
BAKKEN	2-2022	20	1804	1800	1179	1708	1149	292
BAKKEN	1-2022	14	855	853	513	858	539	164
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1964	2016	966	1933	1360	230
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1978	1929	1117	1938	1316	301
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1630	1648	869	1731	1379	48

In 2015, the frack:

30 stages; 3.1 million pounds proppant (a small frack)

In 2015, the well was re-entered and a new lateral was drilled:

In 2007, original spud:

I'm Up -- Merry Christmas Eve To All -- December 24, 2022

I'm up!

The Christmas weekend begins.

I will start the morning watching my favorite Christmas movie, The Shop Around The Corner.

I watched it yesterday and I'm watching it again now. It's that good.

The movie begins with all the major players arriving at "the corner."

The first two: Groucho Marx and Elon Musk.

Yes, I'm procrastinating. I don't want to blog about contemporary global events.

My sister sent me this in memory of our dad:

My dad's best speeding story: getting picked up by the same Montana highway patrolman -- stopped thirty minutes apart. And I think those were the days Montana did not have speed limits except reasonable and prudent.

It took a special driver to get stopped -- twice -- at that time.

Actually, I don't think Dad ever got stopped for speeding in Montana; but in North Dakota, he had so many speeding tickets he lost his driver's license and was required to take a remedial driver's education program in Bismarck, ND, to get it re-instated. He was about 70 years old at the time (?).

He would have been late but ....

Weather Update -- Local -- DFW -- Christmas Eve Morning -- December 24, 2022

We made it through the night.

Some local outages overnight in Texas, including some in our county, but our neighborhood was fine.

We've kept the furnace off about 99% of the time throughout the duration of the polar vortex / cyclone bomb / deep freeze. The furnace is turned on for a few minutes when we get up to take off the chill, but then we turn it off again.

This morning, thermostat said it was 62°F in the apartment. We were toasty warm overnight in bed. Furnace is now on to take off the chill.

ERCOT is forecast to easily handle demand today. Temperature will get up to 36°F today and continually post new highs per the 10-day forecast though it will continue to drop just below freezing the next three nights.

PJM and ISO NE did not fare so well. [Holy mackerel: I just looked at ISO NE -- just like Saudi Arabia, burning oil to produce electricity. In the mix, oil is at 29% -- which is clearly a record. Solar is contributing just slightly less than wind. About 9% x 26% = wind and solar together accounting for two percent of New England's electricity. Demand is fairly normal.

The data suggests NE simply ran out of (or is running out of) natural gas.

Lots to post, but not in the mood. Just enjoying the opportunity to sleep in but wanted everyone to know we're safe.

Coffee in a few minutes.

By the way, the #1 gift this Christmas. A Starbucks card. It is estimated that one of every six Americans will get a Starbucks gift card this year.

We have a Keurig. Three choices: Amazon's brand, Solimo; Donut Shop; and Starbucks. I might add McCafe to the mix this year.

NFL: eleven games today, noon and ~ 3:00 p.m. starts, including the Dallas Cowboys at 3:25. Chiefs at noon. Nothing worth watching Sunday (three games) or Monday (one game).

Lego: I'm so toast warm in bed this morning, I don't want to get up and I certainly don't want to go out, but our local Lego reseller, open 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. will have a lot of specials.

Belk: sales will be incredible. Generally running 60% to 70% off right now.

Amazon delivering on time despite the freeze. A huge Lego package arrived yesterday.