Ford Delays F-150 Lightning Production For At Least Another Week -- February 24, 2023

There's so much going on, it's hard to keep up. I completely forgot this story which came out earlier today:

Shares:

About Those Overlapping 3840-Acre Spacing Units -- February 24, 2023

In case you missed it, the big story in the NDIC hearing dockets for March, 2023: all the 3840-acre spacing units, and there were a lot of them. I finally got tired of listing all the sections in those 3840-acre spacing cases, but if go back and look at those 3840-acre units you will see what's going on.

Anyone want to guess why 3840?

Hint: they are 2x3 units -- two sections by three sections. Six sections x 640 acres/section = 3840 acres.

See the map at this post, as an example. 

Oasis will site six wells at one of the "top three sections" and will site six wells at one end of the "bottom three sections. It's unlikely they will site the twelve wells in the middle of the river, so six wells will be sited in section 25 and six wells will be sited in section 36. The horizontals will be drilled east-to-west, with the horizontals (at least for the northern horizontals) being mostly under water.

But the big thing is this: we're going to start seeing a lot more extended long laterals; three-mile long laterals; three-section laterals. It will be interesting to track their completions (# of stages, amount of water; amount of proppant; number of days to reach total depth; and so on). 

There is an existing tag for extended long laterals.

The House Of Cards Starts To Fall -- A German EV Auto Manufacturer Calls It Quits -- February 24, 2023

Updates

February 25, 2023: from CNBC last year. This is absolutely crazy; does anyone really read this stuff; does anyone really take this stuff seriously -- all that R&D and marketing and the car might get you 70 miles a week on solar energy ... wow... this tells me we need a Fed rate of 8%. This free money spawned any number of really, really ridiculous initiatives ...

Germany company Sono Motors says it will bring a solar-powered electric vehicle to market in Europe in mid-2023. Sono has brought the car, called the Sion, on a tour throughout the U.S., in anticipation of its eventual domestic release.

Priced at $25,000, the car is more affordable than most EVs on the U.S. market. It features 465 integrated solar half-cells throughout the exterior of the car — roof, doors, fenders, hood and all.

The company estimates that solar power alone can fuel about 70 miles of driving per week.

For longer trips though, the Sion has a lithium iron phosphate battery with a 190-mile range, made by Chinese electric vehicle and battery giant BYD. [LOL.]

Original Post 

How did I miss this one? LOL.

So, quick -- how many readers have even heard of Sono Motors? LOL.

Whatever.

Apparently a Munich-based solar energy company was building a "solar" EV. 

Munich, as in that sun-drenched European country known as Germany. Yeah, that one.

This solar-EV company will now pivot to becoming a "solar tech" company. In the screenshot below, "B2B" means "business-to-business." The company will apparently market its "solar technology" to other businesses. 

Sion was the name of its "solar vehicle."

All seriousness aside, this is a huge story for another reason. Most of us will simply write this off as an EV auto manufacturer that didn't make -- the first of many yet to come. But, it's also a sign of European de-industrialization which is tracked here as a theme for 2023. 

From BNN Bloomberg:

TGIF -- Friday Night -- No Family Commitments -- February 24, 2023

Four months from now I'll be poolside 24/7. Well maybe not 24/7 but I'll do my best to make it seem like that.

But tonight, it's a bit chilly outside, but inside --

• a Mediterranean dinner;
• sake; and,
• Paloma Faith to get things started.

I have a new project planned for the summer. It's a very, very involved project but it centers around "Harbor Freight."

Harbor Freight just moved into Grapevine; the new store has been here exactly one month.

I stopped by for the first time this afternoon. It's the first time I've been inside -- shoot, it's the first time I've even seen -- a Harbor Freight. I was really, really impressed. Ace Hardware on steroids? How does a story like Harbor Freight make it when there's a Lowe's and a Home Depot down the road? 

Whatever.

First thing I did was join the "Inside Track Club." One year: $29. When I went up to the cashier to pay, she asked if I would prefer two years for $44? Sure. 

Huge Parking Lot Sale -- one long week -- begins Monday, Mach 6, 2023 -- "Inside Track Club" members can start "getting" the deals on Day 1; the others have to wait until Day 5, Friday. LOL. My goal: save $44 the first day of shopping. LOL. 

But this will be huge for me. I'll keep you posted. 

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All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down: The Nashville Jam

Look at the ensemble on this stage -- you don't notice them all at the beginning ... and one almost gets the feelings more musicians joined as the song went on and on and on.

I saw this clip for the first time more than a year ago; I had forgotten all about it. 

This is when you need over-the-ears Bose headphones.

Week 8: February 19, 2023 -- February 25, 2023

The top stories: 

• Putin unilaterally withdraws from START.
  

The single best story:

• No more balloons over the continental US now that Biden has begun shooting them down. Biden: 4; Balloons: 0.
  

Top story:

• Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine war continues.
  

Top international energy story: 

• 
  
• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Another major winter storm.

Top national energy story: 

• Natural gas in the US goes below $2 / mmbtu.
  

Javier Blas:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Another cold spell.
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects. 

Bakken economy:

• Chugging along.
  

Commentary:

Entertainment:

New Links -- February 24, 2023

Huge thanks to a reader who found this site.

Links:

• Dunn:
• McKenzie:
• Mountrail:
• Williams:

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Jiu-Jitsu Instruction

Biden's Big Plan -- Semiconductors -- February 24, 2023

Never quit reading. It always amazes me how "things keep popping up in the most unexpected places."

Earlier I mentioned the 16-page essay "Greetings From Austin" in The New Yorker and in it, Reagan's M. C. C. 

Then, out of the blue, yesterday, the "Biden chip plan." 

I haven't yet read the "Biden semiconductor plan" but the headline certainly suggests the Biden administration has taken a page from Reagan's M. C. C. 

From Yahoo!Finance:

The centerpiece of the plans, which Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo laid out during a speech, is the creation of at least two semiconductor manufacturing and research hubs in the U.S. These sites—she hopes—will create new U.S. manufacturing and research capabilities and supply chains that will generate momentum for the sector even after the government money runs out.

The speech comes after months of intense lobbying from the semiconductor sector. Companies like Intel Micron, IBM and even the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company have scored visits from President Biden to tout plans for new U.S. plants in the works— and they appear well positioned to take large pieces of the coming windfall. Meanwhile, Raimondo and other officials promise that the funds will be spread across the industry among a range of companies of all sizes.

Reagan's MCC:

• founded in the United States in 1982; ceased operations in 2000; and, formally dissolved in 2004.

Note:

In late 1982, several major computer and semiconductor manufacturers in the United States banded together and founded MCC under the leadership of Admiral Bobby Ray Inman, whose previous positions had been Director of the National Security Agency and Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Such formations were illegal in the United States until the 1984 Congressional passage of the "National Cooperative Research Act".

Texas Monthly maintains an article, published in 1995, that really, really explains the MCC and provides an excellent historical perspective. 

The funding plans -- Biden's and Reagan's -- seem to be very, very different -- based on what little I know -- but times have changed and Biden's team may have gone the route they did for very, very good reasons. If one's a proponent of Trumpian MAGA, then Biden did the very, very right thing, but Biden's plan is not intuitive if one is a Darwinian free-market capitalist. 

[Later: this note from Peter Zeihan popped up after my blog. It explains exactly what I meant the previous statement:

If indeed, the two centers are truly "physical" centers, it will be interesting to see which city/state "wins." It's possible, the two sites will be more decentralized than some may have predicted. 

It's easy to imagine the sites in play: Silicon Valley (northern California); Austin, TX; MIT-Harvard-Boston; Phoenix.

However it plays out, this is going to be a huge, huge deal. 

This is the "big thinking" about which I often write. 

Gina Raimondo:

Gina Marie Raimondo (born May 17, 1971) is an American politician, lawyer, and venture capitalist who has served as the 40th United States Secretary of Commerce since 2021.

A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as the 75th governor of Rhode Island from 2015 to 2021, and is the first woman to serve in the role.Born and raised in Rhode Island, Raimondo began her career in venture capital following law school.

In 2000, Raimondo co-founded Point Judith Capital, Rhode Island's first venture capital firm. She entered politics in 2010, when she successfully ran for the position of general treasurer of Rhode Island.During her first year in office, Raimondo prioritized reforming Rhode Island's public employee pension system.

A fifth site: the arc from Westchester County (NYC) - New Haven (CT) - Providence (RI).

An Oasis Camp Oil Field With Jump In Production -- February 24, 2023

The well:

• 21640, 3,163, Oasis, Catch Federal 5201 11-12H, Camp, t2/12 cum 355K 12/22; file report, stimulated 1/12/12; 37 (31?) stages; 82,999 bbls of water; 4.5 million bls proppant (sand and ceramic); total drilling time: 11 days:
  
• vertical hole to a depth of 10,300 on December 9, 2011; 85.5 hours; December 9, 2011;
  
• the curve, from kickoff point at 10,346 to 11,140 MD; 26.5 hours
  
• the lateral section drilled from 11,140 to 200,450 (TD); 9,3100 feet drilled in 155 hours; TD reached 04:11 hours (CST) on December 22, 2011
  
• the lateral section, two miles down, targeted a 10-foot seam of the middle Bakken, situated 6 feet to 19 feet below the upper shale of the Bakken formation

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	9044	8960	8238	1359	1192	165
BAKKEN	11-2022	20	3246	3178	2467	5202	352	4686
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	13	176	217	191	344	305	29
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	557	624	496	1393	1046	316
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	802	733	683	1957	1294	622
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	630	645	500	1432	1144	259

Initial production:

BAKKEN	8-2012	31	8263	8671	5258	1340	1340	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	10754	10728	4881	6249	6249	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	22	8455	8580	4593	5515	5515	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	24	10439	9627	7632	4643	4643	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	13	5125	5862	2689	2558	2558	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	31	20804	20282	12490	11339	11339	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	27	26047	25706	23585	24635	2716	21919

 

Oasis Looks To Drill Twelve Wells On A 3840-Acre Unit Under The River -- February 24, 2023

A case from the March, 2023, NDIC hearing dockets. Again, this is a case, not a permit:

• 29901, Oasis, Hardscrabble, Indian Hill, and/or Eightmile-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit; sections 25 / 26 / 27 / 34 / 35 / 36-153-102; twelve wells, Williams, McKenzie; 

Seasonal Flu -- CDC -- Weekly Update -- Friday, February 24, 2023

Seasonal flu: weekly update, CDC.  

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2012 Honda Civic Mileage

Walmart To Close Two Walmart Stores And Its Tech Hub In Portland, OR -- February 24, 2023

From the linked article:

The closings mean 580 workers will lose their jobs: 201 at the Hayden Meadows Drive store and 379 at the 82nd Avenue store.

Both stores will close to the public on March 24, 2023, and the employees' last day will be June 2, 2023, according to the filings.

Affected workers were informed Wednesday and are eligible to apply for open jobs at other Walmart and Sam's Club locations.

Walmart is also cutting jobs in Portland as it closes its tech hub in the city. The retailer closed three tech offices across country last week. It employed 45 workers at its location in Portland as of 2019.

From bizjournals, regarding the tech training centers:

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why Walmart is doing this, and it starts with locking down the economy back in March, 2020.

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Another MRO Bailey Well WIth Second Jump In Production -- February 24, 2023

The well:

• 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, t5/10; cum 575K 12/22; cum 637K 9/23;
  

From FracFocus: 

• water: 1.6 million gallons
• water by mass: 86.4%
• proppant by mass: 14.9%

From file report:

• date stimulated: 5/23/2010
• stimulation stages: 16
• volume: 34,358 bbls
• lbs proppant: 2,282,940

• date stimulated: 8/3/14
• stimulation stages: 30
• volume: 37,250 bbls
• lbs proppant: 485,540 (no typo)
  

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	8948	9009	13384	7355	6883	308
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	14104	14093	21899	10992	10202	507
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	17872	17857	35351	15571	14102	1233
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15750	15796	45331	16188	15933	7
BAKKEN	8-2022	27	16451	16527	61968	11173	10846	126
BAKKEN	7-2022	7	5100	4802	26119	3835	3252	337
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	1793	2006	1090	1147	0	821
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1848	1825	1178	1166	0	842

Jump in production in 2014:

BAKKEN	11-2014	30	13026	13128	6472	7391	293	5525
BAKKEN	10-2014	27	11742	11706	6005	6611	1546	3654
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	12466	12511	5669	7290	4242	1535
BAKKEN	8-2014	25	15129	14799	3964	9165	4708	2691
BAKKEN	7-2014	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	27	1029	1144	846	715	43	421
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	1304	1376	837	927	428	173
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	1304	1400	837	949	493	137

Initial production:

BAKKEN	10-2010	18	756	920	618	183	89	0
BAKKEN	9-2010	29	3200	3074	2362	1033	865	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	3928	3947	2890	1466	1288	0
BAKKEN	7-2010	29	4245	4418	2158	1101	938	0
BAKKEN	6-2010	30	6283	6225	3378	2784	2606	0
BAKKEN	5-2010	13	3690	3209	2208	1749	1683	0

The map:

Over A Dozen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Next Few Days -- February 24, 2023

Entertainment: Marlowe getting bad reviews. I had planned on seeing this movie, but with these reviews, nope.

Housing: month-over-month, expectations, seasonally adjusted, 620,000 forecast; came in at 670,000.

Natural gas:

• the US supplied one-half of the natural gas that Europe imported last year
• and that was with Freeport off line

The Fed rate: some say a 6% Fed rate is in the cards. That's not hard to predict.

• fact: the Fed rate is currently in the 4.25 to 4.75% range
• fact: the majority of analysts expect three rate hikes in calendar year 2023
• arithmetic: 0.25 + 025 + 0.25 = 0.75
• arithmetic: 0.75 + 4.75 = 5.5.
• if only one of those three rate hikes is 50 basis points we are at 6.0% for all intents and purposes
• and even without a 50-bp rate hike, 5.5% and 6% are essentially the same except in the minds of CPAs and bankers
• the majority of folks carrying credit card debt are paying 25% interest -- on an annual basis -- on that debt
  

My prediction: talking heads on CNBC will take about the Fed rate only slightly more often than First Take / Get Up talking heads talk about Dak Prescott. Or that guy in yellow or green who went off the grid for the past month or so. I'm blocking on his name.

It gets tedious.

Investing: today --

• I buy during the first and third week of each month, regardless of what the market is doing;
• I have a 40-30-20-5-5 "new-money" allotment strategy
• in February, I took all new money and invested in one sector to better balance my portfolio
• in March, I will get back to the 40-30-20-5-5
• speaking of which, memo to self, for the blog later: "5" "healthcare" "Bezos, Soros, Cook, Ray Dalio, and Mark Cuban -- link here.
  
• today, I will take advantage of the market and invest the first allotment for March, and delay the March investment to the second week in March
• Dow is down almost 400 points at the open; now, at 8:46 a.m. the Dow is down 450 points.

EVs: if JPow stays the course, could this be the death knell for EVs? Today:

• LCID: down 5.4%
• RIVN: down 5.5%
• ARVL: down 3.5% (at 29 cents)
• RIDE: down 5.1% (at $1.05)
• GOEV: down 3.1% (at 76 cents)
• NKLA: down 1%
  
• FSR: down 4.8%
• F: down 2.4% (below $12)
• TSLA: down 4% (below $194)

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Back to the Bakken

Well of interest: #18384. Will post this later. 

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $75.78.

Natural gas: $2.336.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Sunday, February 26, 2023: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H ,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL,
38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU,
38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H,
36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX,

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 72 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year
39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21,

Friday, February 24, 2023: 68 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year
39016, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 8H,
36484, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9H3A,

RBN Energy: as focus on methane intensifies, companies face key challenges, questions.

Over the past five years, the North American oil and gas industry has undertaken a major strategic shift, embracing the global push to decarbonize by, among other things, emphasizing the greener emissions profile of natural gas vs. coal and taking aggressive steps to reduce the volumes of methane, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted during the production, processing and transportation of just about every kind of hydrocarbon. It’s a real challenge, though. Operators face a seemingly endless and overwhelming set of choices about how best to approach emissions reductions, which technologies to use, which programs to join, and how to interpret new emissions-measurement data, to name a few. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a look at how operators can achieve key environmental goals while protecting — even improving — their bottom line and meeting a host of important goals, from reducing the cost of capital and managing investor pressure to improving realized prices and market access.

The Price Of Eggs, Inflation, And Pet Peeves -- February 24, 2023

I have a gazillion pet peeves.

This is just one of them.

Every time I see this graph on inflation -- this one was from February, 2022 -- that leads off with eggs as an example of inflation. 

By the way, lettuce is a similar example but for different reasons. I assume something's going on with "butter+margarine," also. If there is nothing that can explain "butter+margarine" then the high price of tubs is probably due to "guilt by association" (price gouging).

Finally, a year into this and we get a great front-page story in The WSJ explaining what's really going on with eggs. It has almost nothing to do with excess government spending, bailouts, the cost of funding Ukraine, or wage pressure. Certainly not the latter. 

It's all about avian flu. Unfortunately it's being The WSJ  paywall. 

Some screenshots:

From the article:

Since February of last year, the avian flu has led to the death of around 58 million farm-raised birds in the U.S., the deadliest outbreak on record. It sent the price of turkey to record highs for Thanksgiving. Weeks later, egg prices hit their own high.

Avian flu outbreaks have long been a risk in the chicken, turkey and egg businesses. In the past, though, the outbreaks subsided after a few months, easing price spikes. Some government officials, scientists and poultry industry executives now say the avian flu is likely to stick around, potentially keeping egg and turkey prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

The loss of poultry flocks to bird flu coincided with a broad rise in the cost of labor, energy and livestock feed, squeezing consumers with higher grocery store prices.

By the way, as we recall, turkey prices weren't all that high, and in fact, one could easily find turkeys at the same price as the previous year, and right after Thanksgiving stores were giving turkey away, But I digress.

Interestingly, there is one chart at The WSJ article that was most enlightening. That chart was literally at the bottom of the article. The chart should have been at the top of the article but it would have "weakened" the tone of the breathlessness of the writer. 

If I remember, I will post that chart later.

Intel: Follow-Up -- February 24, 2023

INTC: cut its dividend. Folks were hoping that Biden's infusion of cash would save Intel's dividend. Previously discussed. 

 Previously posted:

• from February 7, 2023:

INTC: prepare for a dividend cut. If not, Intel simply redistributing cash from a government bailout.

• from January 27, 2023: 

Wrong horse:

• clearly, the Biden administration bet on the wrong horse;
• creating a "zombie" company
• a "bailout" by any other name
• in the big scheme of things, this is just fine; Biden administration did the right thing for the country.

Big question(s):

• is the dividend at risk?
• is the new Ohio facility at risk?

Also, from January 27, 2023:

See also: TSM.

Where it all started: how many transistors on the new Apple M1 chip? The original post was dated November 22, 2020.

Greetings From Austin -- February 24, 2023

********************************
From Today

I believe I have visited every state in the union, all 57 of them and the District of Columbia and have lived in or spent significant time in no less than fourteen of those states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Montana, Oregon, California, Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Alaska. 

In addition I've lived in and/or spent significant time overseas: Germany, England, Scotland, Morocco, the Gambia, Turkey, Japan, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium.

Not counting North Dakota where I grew up, or perhaps Montana, where our parents had a vacation home, I've felt most at home in north Texas. I thought south Texas was great -- San Antonio. But after thirteen years in San Antonio, and now ten years in the DFW area, I can say that I prefer this area the most. It's quite incredible. 

So, it was quite a treat to see the above article in The New Yorker this week.

*********************
From Yesterday

I've mentioned many times my love / hate relationship with The New Yorker. A year or so ago, I started a new subscription after a lapse of several years. The "introductory" rate was about zero dollars for six months. It was ridiculous not to take out a new subscription. 

Then, some months ago, I was offered to renew the subscription at pretty much the going rate, which is very, very expensive by my standards, but not as expensive as organic eggs. The subscription is $169, if I recall correctly, for one year, an issue every two weeks.

I consider myself lucky if there is more than one article / one essay in any given issue that I might read, much less enjoy. Last week there were none. But when there is an article that I enjoy, it pays for the subscription.

This week, there was such an article. The articles in The New Yorker are incredibly long, generally ten to twelve pages. This article, on Austin, Texas, was sixteen pages. I have six more pages to read. 

It's an incredible article written by a writer who has written and lived around the world, and currently writes for Texas Monthly. 

Three takeaways.

I did not know Austin, Texas is now the eleventh largest city in America (needs to be fact-checked).

I had forgotten that Apple, Inc., has a campus in Austin.

There's a reason Palantir, headquartered in Austin, turned a profit for the first time in its history this past quarter.