Tuesday, June 25, 2024

New EOG Austin Permit -- Parshall Oil Field -- Replaces An Old PNC Permit -- June 25, 2024

Locator: 48039B.

See this post

The EOG Austin wells are tracked here, but they haven't been updated for years. 

There are 139 EOG Austin permits. Some of them are PNC. 

Now, note this well in today's daily activity report:

  • 40874, loc/loc, EOG, Austin 481-1523H, Parshall, Mountrail.

The maps:


Eight New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported as Completed -- June 25, 2024

Locator: 48038B. 

Apple store: I had the opportunity to stop by the Apple Store in Southlake, Texas, this afternoon. All I can say is "wow." Their lineup looks really, really good. And people were buying. Most surprising, the iPhone 15:

  • footprint no longer seems big; my current iPhone is the same size as the new iPhone 15 Max Pro;
  • expensive?
    • the least expensive iPhone 15: $33.99 / month
    • the most expensive iPhone 15 Max Pro: $59.99 / month
    • the Max Pro has the A17 chip; the base iPhone 15 has the A16 -- for $15 / month more, I'm gonna go with the Max Pro -- and a lot of folks are going to think the same way I do.

By the way, did you all see this, link here? What's up with this?

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $80.83.

Eight new permits, #40873 - #40874, inclusive;

  • Operators: CLR (3), Hess (2), Enerplus, EOG, Minnkota,
  • Fields: Last Change (Williams); Stanley (Mountrail); Wheelock (Williams); Jim Creek (Dunn), Parshall (Mountrail); Wildcut (Oliver)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for three Memphis wells, NENE 9-153-100, 
      • to be sited 315 FEL and at 622 FNL; 640 FNL; and 608 FNL; 
    • Hess has permits for an RS-Pierpkorn well, 15-92-1208H-2, 
      • to be sited 263 FNL and 929 FWL; and, a GO-Dustin Brose well, NENW 29-156-98, to be sited 465 FNL and 1332 FWL; 
    • Enerplus has a permit for a Fischer well, SESW 29-145-96, 
      • to be sited 354 FSL and 2233 FWL; 
    • EOG has a permit for an Austin well, SWSE 10-154-90, 
      • to be sited 320 FSL and 1430 FEL; and 
    • Minnkota has a permit for a Freeman 1 well, SWNW 4-141-83, 
      • to be sited 2092 FNL and 401 FWL;

Three permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (2): a Ridley permit and a Loggerhead permit, both in Antelope oil field, McKenzie;
  • Petro-Hunt, a USA permit in Elm Tree, McKenzie County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

The Reverse Hockey Stick -- Foreshadowing The EV In America -- It's Costing Ford $64K For Each EV It Sells -- June 25, 2024

Locator: 48037EVS. 

Tag: tipping point.

Updates

Later, 4:38 p.m. CDT: Solaredge plummets today -- drops 21% today; almost 90% over past year --

Later, 3:24 p.m. CDT: and then we have this, noted after the VW-Rivian story below -- link here.


This story was posted mid-day today -- didn't do a thing for F's stock price. The losses must have been huge for Ford to do this abruptly. Or so it seems. I imagine the boardroom becomes a bit animated when the subject / agenda moves on to EVs. Even the Biden administration is no longer talking about EVs -- in the final months of the presidential campaign. Link here to the Argus Media story.

Later, 3:18 p.m. CDT: Volkswagen thinks different. Just announced. VW takes a $1 billion stake in Rivian. For the moment, the cash infusion likely saves Rivian from an alternative outcome. I have no idea what VW gains from this deal. It's not as if Rivian is doing something VW can't do, and it's not as if Rivian has a global dealer network selling EVs. My hunch: VW needs Rivian to meet California EV standards due to go into effect in 2035 or thereabouts. Sort of like buying forest land to pay for carbon credits. Rivian is nowhere near making a profit, according to Phil Lebeau, June 25, 2024.

Original Post 

The natural progression of "things" -- the "S-shaped curve."

Early adopters --> tipping point --> exponential growth --> general acceptance and sustainability.

Tesla Model S was in mass production in 2012. By then end of the decade, 2022, EVs should have taken hold and been in their "exponential growth stage."

That did not happen, but even more concerning: the all-important "tipping point" was never reached. 

It's hard to define a "tipping point" but in the case of EVs, I would argue that the tipping point is when consumers are clamoring for better infrastructure to meet their needs, and either the private sector responds, or the Federal government goes "Manhattan Project" for EV infrastructure. 

I've seen no headlines  in the past year or so about EV infrastructure, i.e., charging stations, which suggests there are more than enough charging stations for EV consumers. Which means that that tipping point for EV acceptance in the US has not materialized. And without reaching a tipping point, one will never see exponential growth.

By the way, has anyone seen any mega-EV-charging stations -- the kind that Pilot Flying J or Buc-ee's might build? Nope. None. Zilch. Nada.

Investors put their money where they will see a return, and it's not EVs. Or charging stations. Right now, it's Nvidia blades and humongous data centers. 

But there's more to the story. Could the classic "S-shaped curve" be replaced by a hockey stick, and not in a good way?

Tesla seems to be on a treadmill -- on that part of "S-shaped curve" that is flat, really flat. The hockey stick: nah, folks argue, it couldn't happen that fast. 

Hold that thought.

First, does the Cybertruck have a future? Will it simply fade away? Seriously, who is buying a Cybertruck? Certainly not contractors, unless they have a need to get from zero to sixty in just 2.6 seconds. Acceleration when red goes to green at the intersection doesn't seem to be the focus home builders these days. Certainly not in Texas. 

I've thought about this for the past six months, wondering whether the curve could become a reverse hockey stick, and then today, this story.


One can stop reading here, but reading that article brings up even more points for discussion.

The writer clearly does not "get it." He does not get the fact that Americans don't want EVs, something we've discussed for quite some time. How do we know (that he doesn't "get it")?

Because of the questions he asked:

As we face the death of Fisker, it seems worth asking: Was its sole product ever really worth a damn? Did it have the potential to be a contender? Was this a fundamentally decent car plagued by bad decisions/management/quality? Or was it fundamentally flawed? Might Fisker have succeeded if they sold the cars with the latest software update and promised features from the start?

LOL. Latest software update; promised features? 

This writer didn't even talk about cost / price. $50,000. And Fisker was considered "moderate" in price.

But the real problem: Americans don't want to be tethered and they don't like batteries. 

Anyway, enough for now. 

By the way, EVs came up very, very, very briefly on CNBC's "Half-Time Report" when Tesla was very, very briefly mentioned. The analyst soundbite: ".... sure, maybe someday ... but no time soon .. look up 'dead money’ in Funk and Wagnalls and you will see a photo of a Fisker parked in front of the NYSE."

Not exact comment; paraphrased.

Alberta's Switch To Natural Gas From Coal Is Incredibly Dramatic -- What Didn't Happen? Renewables -- Coal May Be King, But Not In My Investing Lifetime -- June 25, 2024

Locator: 48036COAL.

Link here.


The Sports Season Is Over -- Except For Baseball And A Little Bit More Golf -- And Swimming, Late July/Early August -- June 25, 2024

Locator: 48035NBA.

Sports: now that the NHL season is over, Florida having won the Stanley Cup in the 7th game, let's get back to the NBA championship. 

Has the NBA championship series begun? After all, it's June and by June we should be reading and/or talking about the NBA championship. Oh, I just checked. The Boston Celtics won the series in five games -- their 18th championship -- about a week ago. Completely missed it. A player on the Boston team won the MVP award. By the way, who did Boston play?

One city isn't even mentioned in the headlines above, and the #2 team is mentioned only twice, easy to miss.

"Boston" is mentioned three out of four times in the headlines above. That's the difference between the Dallas Cowboys and the NBA. On Sports Talk TV and Radio, the Dallas Cowboys? 24/7. All Dallas all the time. Jerry Jones talks a good game. He says he's focused on winning a championship. In fact, he's focused on making money.

Quick: who won the 1998 Super Bowl? Quick: who's the wealthiest NFL owner?

I assume the three largest NBA markets are: Boston, the Los Angeles, and Dallas. 

What did we learn from this year's playoff? Link here.

By the way, why do I have so little interest in the NBA?

  • thugs
  • jocks
  • entitled
  • the game no longer looks like anything I grew up with (three step rule, traveling, palming, double dribbling, physical contact)
  • the absurdity of the NBA's half-court rule;
  • with regard to physical contact, the NBA is quickly becoming the NFL without pads
  • pretty much a non-team sport, compared to the NFL -- very much a team sport
  • pretty much a one-trick pony: the three-point shot
  • any game that matters: one only needs to watch the last two minutes
  • refs determine the outcome

Oh, the 1998 Super Bowl winner: The Denver Broncos. 

Wealthiest NFL owner: Jerry Jones. Quick: name #3.

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The Book Page

I spent a lot of time updating notes from The Greek Myths, by Robert Graves. It is simply amazing the "images" from the myths that show up in the Old Testament. 

The Judgement of Paris and the loss of Eden (paradise): both involved a woman and an apple. The part of the Biblical snake was played by Eris, goddess of strife, best known for starting the Trojan War.

The Greek trinities -- particularly Athene, Aphrodite, and Hera. Robert Graves has an interesting take on that. Absolutely brilliant. Graves would have been a most interesting professor of Greek myths.

Today, I will spend a bit of time on Caroline Alexander's The War That Killed Achilles.

Tuesday -- McDonald's $5 Meal Debuts -- June 25, 2024

Locator: 48034B. 

Astronauts' return delayed, again: now, not until early July. Meanwhile, hydrogen keeps leaking. Boeing referring calls to NASA and NASA not taking phone calls. Who's in charge? And, of course, Musk is in the mix, also.

Pro-life. The Atlantic.  

Always bring something. The [London] Guardian.

Investing story of the day (yesterday): Stephen Weiss' comments on CNBC's "Half-Time Report" with regard to Apple. AAPL today at the opening: up $2.36; up 1.13%. 

  • chips today: most are up in early morning trading, but follows a tough day yesterday
  • MU, INTC: down today at the opening
  • DOW 30 down a bit in early morning trading but it's due to the "weighting"; overall looks good;
  • S&P 500: up 10 points; NASDAQ: up almost 100 points.

NVDA: the pullback -- huge? Some says it's in "correction territory." A buying opportunity? I have no idea. By the way, now that I've started my "intergenerational wealth transfer" program, I'm pretty much out of the market (in terms of "active investing/active participation"). I've never added so much money to the market on a monthly basis, but it's now predominantly passive and being managed by professionals. My "input" is now minimal. My plan is on auto-pilot and I'm starting to move "grandparent" assets to "grandchildren" 30-year accounts. The "plan" is laid out here. The specifics will change but the general plan is on auto-pilot.

Netflix: flirts with all-time highs; ad momentum; live sports. Link here.

McDonald's debuts the $5 meal (IYKYK -- this is a gimmick that will fail big time):

McDonald's:

  • prices went up 40% during Covid era
  • wages went up 20% during Covid era
  • corporation wanted longer time period; franchises couldn't agree to anything over four weeks
  • biggest meme: the $20-minimum wage in California
  • my hunch: average meal at McDonald's will be lot more than the advertised $5.00

TSA: sets all-time screening record. And they say the US consumer is struggling. Wow.

  • really, really inexpensive to enjoy overseas destinations this year
  • Japanese yen could go to 170!
  • China's air travel is still one to two percent below pre-Covid. Maybe worse.

Japan - dollar exchange rate; link here.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.   

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.43.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024: 73 for the month; 137 for the quarter, 336 for the year
39228, conf, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-2,

Tuesday, June 25, 2024: 72 for the month; 136 for the quarter, 335 for the year
39227, conf, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-3,

RBN Energy: Energy Transfer's acquisition of WTG Midstream no longer includes BANGL stake.

Energy Transfer’s plan to buy WTG Midstream, a West Texas-based and private equity-backed natural gas gatherer and processor, just got a bit less expensive — and not quite so comprehensive. Energy Transfer will still acquire WTG’s network of more than 6,000 miles of gas pipelines, eight processing plants and more, but WTG’s 20% stake in the joint-venture (JV) BANGL pipeline system is no longer part of the deal. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a look at the detour from the original transaction.