The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 06/18/19

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories: A Draw Of Less Than One Million Bbls -- June 18, 2019

API:

forecast: a moderate draw of 2.033 million bbls
actual: a draw of only 812,000 bbls
in the big scheme of things: no change
false precision: forecast and actual measure to the near thousand bbls
validation: tomorrow with the EIA data
WTI: closes over $54 -- closing at $54.08

Who Will Stop The Rain? -- June 18, 2019

For the archives. We will come back to this in 2024.

Link to iceagenow.

Too much rain.

Farmers not getting corn crop in.

What crop they are getting in, is getting in late.

More rain expected.

Corn getting in late, could be hit by early freeze this autumn.

So, we'll see. Archived and follow-up in September.

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In Addition To The Expected Long, Deep Solar Minimum .....

... global temperatures have been falling for quite some time now.

Link here.

US scientists at NOAA expect the cooling trend to continue through the next 11-year cycle. From
spaceweatherarchive:

Hess With Seven New Permits; Whiting With Three New Permits -- June 18, 2019

API:

forecast: a moderate draw of 2.033 million bbls
actual: a draw of only 812,000 bbls
in the big scheme of things: no change
false precision: forecast and actual measure to the near thousand bbls
validation: tomorrow with the EIA data
WTI: closes over $54 -- closing at $54.08

Giving back to the community: I'm waiting for the renewable energy sector to make similar announcements:

Active rigs:

$53.27	6/18/2019	06/18/2018	06/18/2017	06/18/2016	06/18/2015
Active Rigs	62	64	57	28	78

Ten new permits:

Operators: Hess (7); Whiting (3)
Fields: Manitou (Mountrail County), Glass Bluff (McKenzie)
Comments:

Hess has permits for a seven-well EN-Anderson pad in section 7-156-94, Manitou oil field; it appears that all seven may be "section line" wells (not sure about this, but all seven have "LE" in their legal name)

Whiting has permits for a three-well Erickson pad in section 26-152-103, Glass Bluff oil field;

Seven permits renewed:

Kraken (4): a Rat Lake, a Knife River, a Sikes, and a Liberty permit, all in Mountrail County
Slawson (2): two Nightmaker permits, Mountrail County
RimRock: a Moccasin Creek permit in Dunn County

A Group Of MRO Wells In Bailey Oil Field Taken Off Line Late Last Year Are Back On Line -- June 18, 2019

This page won't be updated.

These wells are tracked at this post; they will be updated at that post.

At the linked post above, it was noted that a number of great MRO wells in Bailey oil field were taken off-line late last year; they are now back on line and back to producing:

30550, 4,516, MRO, Brush ..., Bailey, t9/17; cum 255K 4/19; no jump in production;
29384, 1,931, MRO, Ulmer ..., Bailey, t1/16; cum 189K 4/19; no jump in production;
29383, 1,975, MRO, Wilhelm ..., Bailey, t1/16; cum 163K 4/19; no jump in production;
29382, 1,100, MRO, Ringer ..., Bailey, t2/16; cum 150K 4/19; no jump in production;
29381, 2,449, MRO, Trinity ..., Bailey, t2/16; cum 266K 4/19; no jump in production;
28704, IA/1,072, MRO, Greider ..., Bailey, t3/15; cum 111K 7/18; remains off line;
28459, 2,350, MRO, Otto ..., Bailey, t11/14; cum 370K 4/19; no jump in production;
28360, 1,118, MRO, May ..., Bailey, t12/14; cum 178K 4/19; no jump in production;
28358, 1,816, MRO, Reidun ..., Bailey, t12/14; cum 194K 4/19; no jump in production;
28111, 1,675, MRO, Susana ..., Bailey, t11/14; cum 178K 4/19; no jump in production;
25114, 2,417, MRO, Patrick ..., Bailey, t8/13; cum 232K 10/18; remains off line;
24973, 2,437, MRO, Brigner ..., Bailey, t7/13; cum 234K 10/18; just came back on line for 5 days 4/19;
24075, 1,371, MRO, Hansen Ranch ..., Bailey, t4/13; cum 165K 10/18; remains off line
23980, 576, MRO, Klay Carlson ..., Bailey, t6/13; cum 127K 1/19; remains off line;
22658, 1,324, MRO, Lee Christensen ... Bailey, 9/12; cum 272K 4/19; just came back on line;
22451, 1,504, MRO, Curtis Kerr ...., Bailey, t3/13; cum 232K 4/19; just came back on line;
22333. See this post. Remains off line 4/19.

Starting To See 500K Milestones -- June 18, 2019

This is the year that we will start to see many wells go over the 500K-bbl threshold.

There are dozens of "monster wells" in the Sanish oil field; here are a few examples:

16902, 2,192, Whiting, Lacey 11-1H, t7/08; cum 500K 4/19;
18711, 4,126, Whiting, Fladeland 12-10H, t7/10; cum 505K 4/19;
17586, 2,004, Whiting, McNamara 42-26H, t12/08; cum 527K 4/19;
18943, 2,169, Whiting, Locken 14-9XH, t11/10; cum 575K 4/19;
17917, 1,912, Whiting, Olson Federal 42-8H, t5/10; cum 600K 4/19;
17133, 2, 421, Whiting, Smith 11-7H, t8/08; cum 540K 4/19;

The Woodrow Star "A" 1 Went Off-Line -- June 18, 2019

The Woodrow Star "A" 1 went off line 1/19.

1987, IA/150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.105529 million bbls 12/18; a vertical well; went off line 1/19; no recent sundry form;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	Vent/Flare
SANISH	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2019	15	0	0	0	244	240
SANISH	12-2018	31	97	226	105	584	496
SANISH	11-2018	30	93	0	88	587	480
SANISH	10-2018	31	491	698	350	889	470
SANISH	9-2018	30	458	452	338	886	481
SANISH	8-2018	31	408	232	315	863	475

A South Red River B Well Has Gone Over The One-Million Bbl-Milestone -- June 18, 2019

The well:

16242, 405, Denbury Onshore/BR, CHSU 11C-5NH 05, t8/06; Cedar Hills, cum 997K 4/19;

Recent production as reported through 4/19, but still producing as of June 18, 2019:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SOUTH RED RIVER B	4-2019	30	2033	2026	81674	0	0	0
SOUTH RED RIVER B	3-2019	31	1989	1999	86226	462	462	0
SOUTH RED RIVER B	2-2019	28	1768	1779	79202	0	0	0
SOUTH RED RIVER B	1-2019	31	1663	1629	84637	456	444	12
SOUTH RED RIVER B	12-2018	31	1367	1378	89619	0	0	0
SOUTH RED RIVER B	11-2018	30	1357	1370	82372	0	0	0
SOUTH RED RIVER B	10-2018	31	1455	1443	79713	434	108	326
SOUTH RED RIVER B	9-2018	30	1443	1434	68710	473	0	473
SOUTH RED RIVER B	8-2018	31	1622	1635	71549	493	0	493
SOUTH RED RIVER B	7-2018	31	1662	1663	75048	509	0	509

Fascinating -- June 18, 2019

June 18, 2019, T+18 (link here): Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan won't go forward with confirmation, Trump says. Shanahan wants to spend more time with his family. March 28, 2019, article: When will Trump nominate a permanent defense secretary?

In the 70 years before 2019, the Department of Defense had never gone more than two months without a permanent leader. Now, President Donald Trump’s administration is poised to double that wait.

The post formerly filled by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has been open since January 1, 2019, a leadership void that has drawn increasing concern among lawmakers.

From Talking Points Memo:

President Trump on Tuesday announced that Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan has declined to move forward with the confirmation process to formally assume the role. At the same time, a new report was published outlining shocking details from episodes of domestic violence within Shanahan’s family.

Trump said he would name Army Secretary Mark Esper as the acting secretary. Shanahan’s withdrawal is not completely unexpected, as Yahoo News reported Monday that his confirmation process was being hampered by a longer-than-usual FBI background check, which included a domestic violence episode that resulted in his ex-wife’s arrest.

He addressed that and some other grisly familial incidents with the Washington Post in a story published nearly simultaneously with Trump’s tweets.

In November 2011, Shanahan’s then-17-year-old son William beat his mother with a baseball bat, rendering her unconscious in a pool of her own blood. She sustained skull fractures and internal injuries so severe that they required surgery.

And much more at the link.

Sounds like someone needs to spend more time with his family. Although I assume his "original" family is now quite dispersed. He is divorced, father of three. This all happened almost ten years ago. This article, May 14, 2019, completely missed the history of family violence. This article has more but is also lacking.

From wiki:

Shanahan served as Deputy Secretary of Defense from 2017 to 2019. He previously spent 30 years at Boeing in a variety of roles.

On May 9, 2019, President Trump announced his intention to nominate Shanahan as the Secretary of Defense, a decision that was reversed on June 18, 2019.

Again, it seems Trump was given really, really bad advice when Shanahan was brought on as Deputy SecDef.

Top IPs In The Bakken -- Hart Energy -- June 18, 2019

Behind a pay wall, but one can see this much, the top 12 IP wells in the Bakken as recorded by Hart Energy, in boepd:

7,088, Whiting, Tarpon-Federal 21-4H, McKenzie, Nov, 2011;
7,013, BR, Llano 34-34H, McKenzie, June, 2012;
6,766, BR, Brazos 24-34H, McKenzie, June, 2012;
5,330, BEXP, Sorenson 2-H, Mountrail, March, 2011;
5,238, Oasis, Casey 13-30B, McKenzie, July, 2012;
5,200, Newfield, Wisness-Federal 152-96-4-2H, McKenzie; July, 2011;
5,133, BEXP, Sorenson 29-32, Mountrail, March...

Not nearly as current (or as accurate) as the list at the blog.

There are so many ways to rank IPs:

one-hour flow rate with spigot wide open at time of test and then extrapolate to 24 hours (this was common early on in the Bakken, but I don't think it's often used any more)
peak 24-hour flow rate at time of test after the frack/completion
first full month/peak month (one-month) production -- calendar month (some first "full months" not full months / first full peak month is not a full 30 or 31 days)
first full three months (throw out the early "outlier" months)
first full six months (throw out the early "outlier" months)
boepd (oil, NG [gas], NGL [liquids]) -- common obfuscation in corporate presentations
bopd (oil only)

I prefer the 24-hour, one-month, and three-month production numbers.

On top of this, we haven't even begun following re-fracked IPs.

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Parts One and Two

This is an incredibly long video for such.

Part 1 was THE hit but part 2 was important. It tells me that Harry Chapin was never able to move on.

Taxi and sequel, Harry Chapin
Long Island.

Taxi:

In 1972, he released his debut album, Heads & Tales.

The album was an international success, selling over 1 million units. Its success was due to the top 25 Billboard Hot 100 hit single, "Taxi".

The song also became a top 5 hit in Canada.

The success of the song in America is credited to American radio personality Jim Connors, who helped promote the song on the radio despite its length, and helped it to stay on the charts for 16 weeks.

It became the number one requested song for 10 weeks in a row. The song was performed on The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson, which received so many calls that Chapin returned the next night. It was the first time in the show's history that a performer had been called back the next night.

It was also one of the first performances on The Midnight Special, with John Denver hosting.

In my journal those years, I mentioned these songs:

The Doors: Riders on the Storm
Bill Withers: Ain’t No Sunshine (released September, 1971)
Barry Manilow: Mandy (1971)
Ringo Starr: It Don’t Come Easy (April, 1971)
Bee Gees: How Do You Mend a Broken Heart? (1971)
Karen Carpenter: Rainy Days & Mondays Always Get Me Down
Hamilton, Joe Frank & Reynolds: Don’t Pull Your Love
Donna Fargo’s Happiest Girl in the Whole USA
Maggie May, Rod Stewart, #1 October, 1971
Vicki Lawrence records The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia, Nov 72Number one hit for Vicki Lawrence
Steely Dan’s Do It Again, released in 1972
Elton John: Crocodile Rock, Nov 1972

Oil Prices Just Surged 4% -- June 18, 2019 -- 10:08 A.M. CT

From oilprice:

No story at oilprice, yet.

Dow up 400 points.

Strange things are happening.

Jay Powell getting anxious: first Fed chairman in quite some time to lead US into recession? Trump, of course, will get the blame on "Main Street," but Jay Powell will get the blame on "Wall Street."

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The Dictionary Page

Not a typo:

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Update On The Granddaughters

Arianna and Olivia rested yesterday in Paris after an exhausting two weeks:

Rome, the Vatican, Kinder Eir in the Sistine Chapel
Athens
seven days sailing on the Aegean Sea
Sunday: Paris -- the women's soccer team defeat Chile, 3 - 0; the granddaughters on the Chile side of the field, row 5, at center line
yesterday, resting, laundry, charting four days in Paris
then, on to London for a long week

Production Data For The Equinor Cheryl Wells In Banks Oil Field Has Been Updated -- June 18, 2019

A reminder to look at the incredible Equinor Cheryl wells in Banks oil field.

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Film Noir

From the 1940s film noir The Third Man, a famous line delivered by Orson Welles:

In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace -- and what did that produce/ The cuckoo clock.

Welles is said to have written that line himself.

From The Vital Question: Energy, Evolution, and the Origins of Complex Life, Nick Lane, c. 2015, page 157.

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Family Portrait

Sophia's impressionist painting of her family: mommy, daddy, sister Arianna, and herself. Her mommy is at the top in the painting below. Arianna and Sophia are skipping and holding hands. Her father is in the middle.

When I asked where Olivia, her other sister, was, Sophia answered without missing a beat: "At soccer practice."

US Shale Oil Plays Should Report New Record Production This Summer -- EIA -- June 18, 2019

Drilling productivity report: released yesterday, June 17, 2019 -- EIA predicts another record-breaking production report for North Dakota for June.

all four shale oil plays should report an increase in new-well production per rig; the Bakken could increase from 1,409 bopd to 1,413 bopd -- the highest among the four plays --

compare that 1,413 in the Bakken with only 698 in the Permian

predicted oil production per day by region

Permian: 4.171 million bopd
Bakken: 1.428 million bopd
Eagle Ford: 1.393 million bopd
Anadarko: 561,000 bopd

DUCs by region (May, 2019)

Permian: almost 4,000
Eagle Ford: 1,500
Anadarko: 1,000
Bakken:700

Boeing: in dire straits. From zerohedge.

Great writing. From Powerline. Agree completely -- even TCM is political. But that doesn't keep me from watching. The writer calls out Eddie Muller for his left-liberal perspective, but Ben Mankiewicz is even worse.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, June 18, 2019: 64 for the month; 253 for the quarter;

34658, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-10-4H, Charlson, no production data,
34605, SI/NC, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 8-31-30H, Elm Tree, no production data,
34240, 504, Oasis, Nelson 5298 422-23 5T, Banks, t1/19; cum 82K 4/19;
33651, 1,429, CLR, Ransom 6-30H1, Elidah, t12/18; cum 102K 4/19;

The "parent uplift" phenomenon: next to #33651, this well:

19824, 1,683, BR, Ransom 44-31H, Elidah, t5/11; cum 204K 4/19;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	5171	5377	3219	11112	10452	586
BAKKEN	3-2019	28	5610	5519	3579	11136	11045	21
BAKKEN	2-2019	16	2603	2552	1767	4647	4607	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	24	2703	2307	3410	3668	3608	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	2891	3007	5148	4837	4763	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	17	834	459	5686	1618	1576	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	5	72	0	338	55	42	1
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	1	38	236	0	15	15	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	0	0	0	15	13	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	961	1155	605	2230	2155	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1315	1175	451	2436	2359	0