In The Morning -- PCE -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48494MEMO.

Happy Birthday, Warren Buffett -- turns 94 years old, Friday, August 30, 2024.

Link here.

Intel: Working With Investment Bankers -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48493INTC.

Tag: Intel.

Link here.

As always, the comments are enlightening.

Five New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed; And, Four Permits Canceled -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48492B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

• in storage: 4% below the five-year average;
• refiners: 93.3%
• jet fuel delivered: up 2.6% compared y/y

Gasoline demand, link here:

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.75.

Active rigs: 41.

Five new permits, #41080 - #41084, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (4); Zavanna
• Fields: Arnegard (McKenzie); Brooklyn (Williams)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for four Sapphire wells, lot 2, section 31-150-100, 
• to be sited 2414 FNL with one at 455 FWL, 488 FWL, 554 FWL, and 587 FWL
• Zavanna has a permit for a Midas well, SESE 36-155-99; 
• to be sited 410 FSL and 915 FEL.
  

Four permits canceled:

• XTO: four Kenneth permits, NWNW 17-154-96, Williams County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 33903, 195, Slawson, Mole 2-20H, Mountrail County;

The Bigger Story Today -- Revised GDP -- UP! Did JPow And The Fed Just "Stick" The Landing? LOL -- What A Great Country -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48491GDP.

Earlier I said the "big story" today was Apple. That's still true, but the revised GDP for 2Q24 was an even bigger story.

Two screenshots, 2Q24:

But, not looking good, going into 3Q24, but I'm sure the Fed is watching this closely:

This data certainly support a September, 2024, Fed cut, with the only question, 25 basis points or 50 basis points?

The September, 2024, NDIC Hearing Dockets Have Posted -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48490DOCKETS.

September Dockets

Thursday 09/26/24 Supplement
Thursday 09/26/24
Wednesday 09/25/24 Supplement
Wednesday 09/25/24

Link here.

September hearing dockets.  

Link here.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.

Thursday, Supplement
Four continued cases

 

Thursday, September 26, 2024
Six pages

The cases:

• 31228, Grayson Mill, Buford-Bakken, and/or Briar Creek-Bakken, 5, Williams, McKenzie
  
• 31229, EOG, Phaelens Butte-Bakken, 3, McKenzie
• 31230, Formentera Operations, Blooming Prairie-Bakken, Bluffton-Bakken, and/or Whiteaker-Bakken, create 10 overlapping 1920-acre units, eight wells on each overlapping 1920-acre spacing unit; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Divide County
• 31231, Formentera Operations, Frazier-Bakken, establish three overlapping 1920-acre units; eight wells on each; establish a 1920-acre unit, 8 wells; Divide County;
• 31232, Formentera Operations, Baukol Noonan-Bakken and/or Noonan-Bakken, establish a 1920-acre unit; 8 wells; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 8 wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Divide County;
• 31233, Formentera Operations, Larson-Bakken and/or Black Slough-Bakken, establish three 1920-are units, 8 wells; Burke County;
• 31234, KODA Resources, amend, Fertile Valley-Bakken, establish five 1920-acre units; 5 wells each, Divide County
• 31235, KODA Resources, amend, Daneville-Bakken, establish four 1920-acre units, 5 wells each; Divide County;
• 31236, WPX, Heart Buttte-Bakken, Twin Buttes-Bakken, and/or Wolf Bay-Bakken, establish two 1440-acre units, 8 wells on each; three overlapping 2880-acre unit, one well; Dunn County;
• 31237, NDIC, to review the pilot injection project for EOR, Liberty Resources, file #35883; Silver Hill Energy Operating; Mountrail County;
• 31238, Phoenix Operating, Ranch Creek/Charlie Bob-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 4 wells; McKenzie County
• 31239, EOG, pooling;
• 31240, Zavanna, pooling;
• 31241, Zavanna, pooling;
• 31242, Grayson Mill, Buford-Bakken, 5 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Williams County;
• 31243, Silver Hill, commingling
• 31244, Liberty Resources, commingling
• 31245, Phoenix Operating, commingling
  

Wednesday, Supplement
Three continued cases

 

Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Twelve pages

The cases:

• 31184, Hess, Sorkness-Bakken,establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; Mountrail County;
  
• 31185, Kraken Operating, Burg-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Williams County;
• 31186, Kraken Operating, Green Lake-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Williams County;
• 31187, Kraken Operating, New Home-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams County;
• 31188, Kraken Operating, Rawson and/or Antelope Creek-Bakken, establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; one well on each, McKenzie;
• 31189, Draken Operating, Little Tank-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; McKenzie;
• 31190, Kraken Operating, Little Tank-Bakken, establish two overlapping 3840-acre units, one well on each; McKenzie;
• 31191, Oasis, Indian Hill-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit, one well; McKenzie, Williams
• 31192, Oasis, Trenton, Hardscrablle, and/or Indian Hill-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit, one well; McKenzie, Williams;
• 31193, Oasis, Indian Hill and/or Eightmile-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit; one well, McKenzie, Williams
• 31194, Oasis, Oasis, Nameless and/or Foreman Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 2240-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
• 31195, Oasis, Foreman Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 2240-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
• 3396, Oasis, Namelss and/or Foreman Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 4480-acre unit, five wells; McKenzie County;
• 31197, Oasis, Nameless, Foreman Butte and/or Glass Bluff-Bakken, laydown 4480-acre unit, five wells, McKenzie;
• 31198, Oasis, Foreman Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown of 4480-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
• 31199, Enerplus, Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; six wells; Dunn County;
• 31200, Enerplus, Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit, six wells; Dunn County;
• 31201, Enerplus, Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Dunn County;
• 31202, Enerplus, Eagle Nest-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; Dunn County;
• 31203, Grayson Mill, commingling;
• 31204, Grayson Mill, commingling;
• 31205, Grayson Mill, commingling;
• 31206, BR, commingling;
• 31207, Hess, Oliver-Bakken, five wells on a 1920-acre unit; Williams County;
• 31208, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, eleven wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie County;
• 31209: Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie County;
• 31210, Hess, Ross-Bakken, seven wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail;
• 31211, Hess, pooling;
• 31212, Hess, commingling;
• 31213, Hess, commingling;
• 31214, Kraken Operating, Ft Buford, Buford, and/or Briar Creek-Bakken, four wells on a standup 1920-acre unit; Williams County;
• 31215, Oasis, pooling;
• 31216, Oasis, pooling;
• 31217, Oasis, pooling;
• 31218, Oasis, pooling;
• 31219, Oasis, pooling;
• 31220, Oasis, commingling;
• 31221, Oasis, pooling;
• 31222, Oasis, commingling;
• 31223, Oasis, commingling;
• 31224, Enerplus, pooling;
• 31225, Enerplus, pooling; 
• 31226, Enerplus, pooling;
• 31227, Enerplus, commingling;

The Big Story Today? Apple -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48489AAPL.

I might come back to this later. But I'm simply overwhelmed with so much Apple (AAPL) news.

I don't think folks are following this story close enough.

There's a reason that AAPL is up over $5 today. 

Off the net until later tonight. Except to post on other blogs. 

Intel (INTC) Vs Nvidia (NVDA) -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48488INTC.

Intel (INTC) vs Nvidia (NVDA).

I believe this has been posted at least once before. 

Link here.

AAPL, BRK -- BRK Has Sold About Half Its AAPL Holdings Over Last Six Months Or So -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48487AAPL.

Tag: Apple, Berskshire. 

BRK-B hit a new 52-week high today.

It was my understanding that Warren Buffett had about 790 million shares of AAPL as of July 22, 2024, but then shortly after the first of August, it was reported that Warren Buffett slashed his Apple holdings by half.

So, it's my understanding he holds about 400 million AAPL shares -- needs to be fact checked. AAPL is up $5.27  today = x 400 million = $2.108 billion.

 

EV Manufacturer Canoo Leaving California For Texas -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48486EVS.

Link here. 

Corporate HQ relocations to Texas tracked here.

Canoo (ticker GOEV). 

From Torrance (Los Angeles), California, to Irving, Texas, just down the street from us.

Cramer's First Hour -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48485INV.

Tag: Fauci.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares. 

Transitory: 

AI: the big story today? AI. OpenAI, specifically. The next trillion-dollar company.

Dollar General craters. Down 20%. Misses. Says customer is constrained. Yet, all the non-discount stores are doing quite well. I think folks are missing the story here. Exhibit A: Best Buy -- raises guidance, and shares up 15%. 

German inflation: surprise drop to 2% in August, 2024. This may not be a "good" story. Exhibit A: falling GDP. Does contraction = recession? Link here.

Nvidia: keep the narrative going. Sophia is eager to execute her trades at the market open. 

AAPL: right now, pre-market, up almost $4.00. Whoo-hoo!

BRK-B: see this post.

The deadly rise of anti-science: link here. Fauci's book is out.

CLF -- Cleveland-Cliffs: long discussion on Nippon, US Steel, and CLF.

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Enterprise Products To Buy Piñon Midstream -- Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48484B.

WTI: $74.78.

Friday, August 30, 2024: 74 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 454 for the year
None,

Thursday, August 29, 2024: 74 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 454 for the year
40471, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 4B,
40418, conf, Oasis, Fossum 5301 43-35 4B,
39855, conf, Enerplus, Wildebeest 148-95-4A-16H,
39712, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-LE-157-85-2635H-1
39710, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-157-85-2536H-4,

RBN Energy: Enterprise to buy Piñon Midstream and its Dark Horse sour-gas system.

Enterprise Products Partners, already a leading provider of “well-to-water” or “well-to-market” midstream services out of the Permian, recently announced a deal to acquire private-equity-backed Piñon Midstream for $950 million in cash. But this isn’t just another bolt-on. Over the past few years, Piñon has been building out its one-of-a-kind Dark Horse system, which gathers and treats “sour” associated gas in a highly prolific, crude-oil-saturated part of the northern Delaware Basin and permanently sequesters the resulting hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) deep underground. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the impending Enterprise/Piñon acquisition, what Dark Horse does and how it gives Enterprise access to what may be the next hot production area in the Permian.

MMFs -- My Favorite Chart -- Also, Most Recent Presidential Poll -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48483MMF.

My favorite chart.

Link here.

All the while, US equities continue to trade at new highs. We've talked about this before. 

By the way, the tea leaves suggest that several voting members of the Federal Reserve still don't feel it's really time to cut rates, but they will go along with the boss on this one. I assume their spouses like the interest they're making on money market funds, Treasuries, etc.

*******************
The Literary Page 

Link here. 

Articles like these are incredibly valuable and necessary.

But to some degree, they suggest the "insecurity" of the writers. 

Middlemarch was, perhaps, one of the most important books I ever read. I first read it late in life, in my 50s. It would have meant nothing to me had I been required to read it in high school (or even college). 

I didn't find this article particularly rewarding, but I'm glad I happened to come across it.

*******************************
Presidential Politics

Road To Texas -- University Of Texas -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48482TEXAS.

University of Texas system.

Link here.

$6 million. 

Every day. 

$2.2 billion / year.

260,000 students enrolled.

$8,500 per student.

Compare with Harvard:

Does Harvard still have the largest endowment? Link here.

But on a per capita basis, no comparison, of course.

Oneok -- OKE -- Deals -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48481OKE.

Two links: TWSJ and Bloomberg.

Ticker OKE:

OKE vs KMI, one year:

EV Sales Plummet In Germany -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48480EVS.

This must be the third or fourth story in as many weeks of EV sales plummeting. This is simply staggering when considering all the associated data points, hype, global government support, etc.

Link here.

Direct to Bloomberg.

The lede: auto sales in Europe were roughly flat in July as demand for EVs weakened further in Germany, the region's biggest car market. 

The bigger story: it's amazing what Bloomberg doesn't put in the headline. A better lede:

Neither Trump nor Harris will scrap EV subsidies. But that's fine with me. I'm an investor and cultural observer, not a faux environmentalist.

Think Volkswagen -- and its recently announced $5 billion investment in Rivian. From August 5, 2024:

Apple, AAPL, BRK And A Disclaimer -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48479AAPL.

What's going on with AAPL, and what's going on with Apple?

So, what's going on? This is what's going on.

Now, BRK -- which hit the $1 trillion market cap yesterday before pulling back. It will easily go over $1 trillion again, today:

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Nvidia -- NVDA -- Twelve Hours Later -- August 29, 2024

Locator: 48478NVDA.

All about tech, right now. 

Most important: AAPL, NVID, CRM.

Apple (AAPL) news here. (pending)

Over on twitter: Evan, Giovanni Staunovo, and EconomyApp.

Start here. 

First two charts, Nvidia, link here:

• 2Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
• largest revenue center, "Data Center": $26.3 billion; grew 16% q/q
• revenue: $30.08 billion; grew 15% q/q
  
• gross profit: $22.6 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 75% margin;
• operating profit: $18.6billion; grew 3pp q/q; 62% margin;
• net profit: $16.6 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 55% margin;

From yesterday:

• 1Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
• largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
• revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q
  
• gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
• operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
• net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin;
  

Salesforce, link here: 

• 2Q25: compare CRM margins below with NVDA margins above (spoiler alert: there's simply no comparison) and other data points, from left to right:
  
• subscription and support: $8.8 billion; grew 9% y/y;
• five revenue centers: each $1 billion to $2 billion; each grew about 10% y/y;
• revenue: $9.3 billion; grew 8% q/q
  
• gross profit: $7.2 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 77% margin;
• operating profit: $1.88 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 19% margin;
• net profit: $1.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 15% margin;

Now, conventional comparison, CRM vs NVDA:

CRM, p/e = 46.54

NVDA, forward p/e = 40; current p/e = 74:

NVDA vs CRM: 

Summary of Nvidia's Earnings Call 

Link here.

Positives: - Record Revenue Growth: NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $30 billion for Q2, a 15% sequential increase and a remarkable 122% year-on-year growth, significantly surpassing the expected $28 billion. - Strong Data Center Performance: Data Center revenue reached $26.3 billion, up 16% sequentially and 154% year-on-year, driven by robust demand for NVIDIA's Hopper architecture and networking platforms, particularly in generative AI applications. - Innovative Product Pipeline: The anticipation for the upcoming Blackwell platform is high, with expectations of several billion dollars in revenue from Blackwell in Q4. The platform promises significant improvements in performance and efficiency. - Diverse Customer Base: NVIDIA's customer base is expanding, with strong demand from cloud service providers, consumer internet companies, and enterprises across various sectors, including healthcare and automotive. - Growing Software Revenue: NVIDIA's AI Enterprise platform is gaining traction, with expectations to approach a $2 billion annual run rate by year-end, indicating strong growth in software and services.

Negatives: - Gross Margin Pressure: Gross margins decreased slightly due to a higher mix of new products and inventory provisions for low-yielding Blackwell materials, with expectations of continued pressure as new products ramp up. - Competitive Market in China: While Data Center revenue in China grew, the market remains competitive, and NVIDIA faces challenges due to export controls affecting its operations in the region. - Increased Operating Expenses: Operating expenses are expected to grow in the mid- to upper 40% range as NVIDIA invests in developing next-generation products, which may impact profitability in the short term. - Transition Challenges: The shift from Hopper to Blackwell may present challenges in terms of customer readiness and integration, particularly with the adoption of liquid cooling technologies.  

Overall: NVIDIA's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and growth prospects driven by innovation in AI and accelerated computing, while also acknowledging challenges related to margins and competitive pressures.

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

 *******************************
Nvidia's 2Q Revenue and Net Income For Every 2Q Since Going Public

Link here.

The link has revenue and income data going all the way back to 1999. I will post only income data for past few years:

Net income: