Strange Production Profiles In Two Huge Wells On The Edge Of The Bakken -- January 1, 2015

Updates

February 2, 2015: a reader writes me regarding the production profiles of the two wells below. He notes the high volume of water. Some would consider these "water wells" that also happen to produce some oil. The writer suggests that at current prices, these wells won't have much of a future; very costly to dispose of that water.
 

Original Post

Look at the original post regarding these two wells.

I was curious to see how they were doing. The production profiles of both wells are very interesting; it's hard to believe that this is purely coincidental (both wells decreasing exactly at the same time) or that it's a natural decline (Bakken wells decline quickly but not this fast, and in both cases, the wells were actually taken off-line for a number of days immediately after two big months of production -- in bold red). The Anderson well was taken completely offline in December. No, it certainly looks like there is another reason for the share decline in production.

• 25995, 642, Cornerstone, Anderson B-2413-6191, Clayton, 33 stages, 5.1 million lbs, t5/14; cum 58K 12/14; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	19	1822	1891	9042	4011	2644	1272
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	3449	3476	17959	2225	609	1461
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	4567	4669	21912	7757	7607	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	5341	5440	24974	10102	9947	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	5828	5774	29122	7960	7805	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	13	1793	1410	10379	1410	1345	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	30	11805	12704	43679	7338	7188	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	27	14218	13866	46520	3641	3506	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	8929	8662	44574	3641	3506	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	5	694	243	8466	103	78	0

• 26033, 626, Cornerstone, Hinds C-0631-6190, Northeast Foothills, t4/14; cum 63K 12/14;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2014	30	2254	2685	13249	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	2775	2522	16151	6596	5515	931
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	3434	3265	19026	1964	878	931
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	4177	4560	21139	734	584	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	4537	4410	0	838	683	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	21	3804	4019	17590	5906	5801	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	29	5257	4869	25481	793	643	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	30	10602	11053	45164	14649	14499	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	28	16174	16147	54815	14583	14443	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	24	7218	6919	36202	6655	6535	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	10	2410	1993	16587	2170	2120	0

******************************

Global Warming

Updates

February 2, 2015: this is pretty cool. I wrote the "original post" below on the evening of February 1, 2015, just after the end of the Super Bowl, and then this morning a readers sent me a very insightful article from the WSJ on the same subject.  

Hurricanes are likewise used as an example of the “ever worse” trope. If we look at the U.S., where we have the best statistics, damage costs from hurricanes are increasing—but only because there are more people, with more-expensive property, living near coastlines. If we adjust for population and wealth, hurricane damage during the period 1900-2013 decreased slightly.

At the U.N. climate conference in Lima, Peru, in December, attendees were told that their countries should cut carbon emissions to avoid future damage from storms like typhoon Hagupit, which hit the Philippines during the conference, killing at least 21 people and forcing more than a million into shelters. Yet the trend for landfalling typhoons around the Philippines has actually declined since 1950, according to a study published in 2012 by the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. Again, we’re told that things are worse than ever, but the facts don’t support this.

Original Post

Everything I've ever read about global warming says that increased precipitation is to be expected with global warming. Some sites that confirm that:

• union of concerned scientists
• climatehotmap
• earthobservatory.nasa 
• natural resources defense council
• earthsky

And yet here we are, San Francisco gets no rain in January for first time in 165 years.

All global warming sites, including the five linked above, also talk about more severe and more frequent hurricanes. In fact, since Katrina (2005), there have been almost no hurricanes to hit landfall in the US. This has been one of the quietest periods in hurricane activity since the data has been tracked.

Southwest North Dakota To Begin A New Round Of Building -- Another Mini-Boom -- February 1, 2015

The Dickinson Press is reporting: another mini-boom in construction in southwest North Dakota.

******************************

The Tale Of Three Cities

 New England:

In 2015, city officials expect to start on a $5 million effort to fix the city’s water supply. Opdahl said many of the water lines in the city were installed in the 1940s and are having trouble because of mineral buildup in the pipes.

To help pay for the project, city officials have secured a $2.7 million loan and a $2.3 million grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

Bowman:

In 2015, the city of Bowman is expected to witness the groundbreaking of a new hospital, the opening of several new businesses, and the completion of the new $14 million Bowman Municipal Airport.

Plans for a new hospital, expected to be completed in 2016, and the establishment of Shopko — a retail store going into the former Alco location — will benefit residents and the city.

Killdeer:

Killdeer is set to make more than $7.5 million in city improvement projects in 2015, including $2 million in water-related projects, $1.1 million in stormwater projects and $2.9 million in street improvements.

But those numbers don’t even include the $9 million expected to be invested into a new wellness center and outdoor recreation area, complete with an indoor pool, baseball fields, a skate park, a walking path, and tennis and basketball courts.

The size and scope of these public construction projects in Killdeer would be enough to show how the city continues to grow, but those projects are dwarfed by the size and number of private projects planned for the coming year.

In total, there are 213 apartments; two hotels and restaurants, 70 townhomes and 45 duplexes that have approval from the Killdeer Zoning Board.

The Hubbert Theory And The North Dakota Experience -- February 1, 2015

Yesterday I had fun with a long piece on peak oil.

North Dakota and the Hubbert Theory at the end of the 20th century.

This is a more current update.

*********************************

Speaking Of Batteries

In anticipation of the release of the Apple Watch there has been a lot of discussion about how often the Apple Watch will need re-charging / how long a full charge will last.

It turns out that Tesla, the battery company that markets itself as a car company, has an app for the Apple Watch. A driver will be able to monitor the inside environment of the Tesla and will be able to adjust temperature settings using her Apple Watch, as seen at this article at Macrumors.

Someone noted something very interesting about the photograph of the Tesla application on the Apple Watch.

If you look closely, you will see that the Tesla Model S Sedan is 89% fully charged ... and it will only be another 2 hours and 24 minutes before it reaches full charge.

And folks are already complaining about how often one needs to charge an Apple Watch. LOL. 

By the way, I've always wanted to set the temperature of my car with my watch: it's an incredible pain to move the little tabs to the right or the left on the dashboard to set the temperature.

My hunch is that Honda will respond by putting the controls on the steering wheel, just like they have done with radio controls. Nothing like competition to make things better.

7/14 Bakken Wells Go To DRL Status -- February 1, 2015

Over at the discussion group, two discussions:

• one regarding a CLR well in Divide County; and,
• the other, a continuation of the discussion regarding selling Bakken acreage.

*****************************

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, Monday. Note EOG storing oil in the ground (#27291, #27437, #27438 below). I track wells with interesting production profiles noted during the slump in oil prices here.

Monday, February 2, 2015

• 28159, 2,004, MRO, Wheeler USA 21-17TFH, Van Hook, t11/4 cum 41K 12/14;
• 28275, 75, Enduro, GCMU 6-31-H1, Glenburn, a Madison well, t10/14; cum 5K 12/14;
• 28523, 1,572, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-4THF, Antelope, t12/14;cum 18K 12/14;
• 28547, drl, XTO, Schettler 14X-9F, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Sunday, February 1, 2015

• 28004, drl, Slawson, Cruiser 5-16-9TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 28426, 120, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Lochner 4-3 1H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, t9/14; cum 7K 12/1;4
• 28485, drl, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-6, Hawkeye, no production data,
• 28564, dry, CLR, Bailey 7-24H, Pershing, surface casing failure;
• 28774, drl, XTO, Ranger 21X-18F, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
• 28874, 367, WPX, Mandaree 30-31HW, Reunion Bay, t1/15; cum 7K 11/14; 
• 28906, drl, CLR, Margaurite 3-15H, Sanish, no production data,

Saturday, January 31, 2015

• 27291, 495, EOG, Parshall 61-15H, Parshall, t8/14; cum 50K 11/14; 
• 27437, 1,204, EOG, Parshall 63-16H, Parshall, cum 68K 11/14; 
• 27438, 761, EOG, Parshall 64-16H, Parshall, t8/14; cum 63K 11/14; 
• 28522, drl, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-3H, Antelope, a huge well,
• 28548, drl, XTO, Schettler 14X-9C, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

*******************************************

27291, see above, EOG, Parshall 61-15H, Parshall, strange production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2014	3579	2044
10-2014	8219	3789
9-2014	22245	2845
8-2014	15127	0

27437, see above, EOG, Parshall 63-16H, Parshall, strange production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2014	5571	3684
10-2014	11958	7076
9-2014	25521	12649
8-2014	24722	7638

  27438, see above, EOG, Parshall 64-16H, Parshall, strange production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2014	5018	2164
10-2014	10376	5656
9-2014	24163	12646
8-2014	22702	7208