Motorcycles On Main Street, Grapevine, TX -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 2, 2016

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

Sometimes I don't blog as much as I normally would because I am overwhelmed by all the negativity in the mainstream media.

Right now, I am unable to blog because of all the good news coming out of the mainstream media.

Nothing has changed, just my perception after visiting the Bakken this past week.

I think things are in a lot better shape than the mainstream media would have us believe.

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Note To The Granddaughters

This weekend, her dad took the oldest granddaughter to Houston where she was playing in a regional water polo tournament.

Meanwhile, her mother took the middle-aged granddaughter to all her soccer games and Olympic Development Program sessions.

And that left me with two full days of being with Sophia. She and I are joined at the hip. She can read my mind; I can read hers. I can anticipate when she needs something, and what she needs.

Tonight, Sophia and I spent the evening downtown. We had dinner in a 5-star French pastry restaurant on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, and then explored Main Street after dinner.

The motorcyclists were out; Sophia is fascinated by motorcycles, as am I. A short video of our time on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, tonight.

Sophia was quite thrilled to be carrying the dessert -- chocolate mousse cake -- home in her little "doggie bag." Sophia picked out the dessert herself. The slice of cake they gave us could have served a family of four, so we had a fair amount to take home:

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ObamaCare Ailing, Failing -- NY Times

Link here. The details hardly matter. Anyone paying attention knows the problem. The newsworthy "thing" is that the NY Times has finally dared print what most of us have know for six years.

Meanwhile, over in Minnesota, the ObamaCare news gets worse every day. Link here.

Minnesota's top health insurance regulator says the state's individual market is in "an emergency situation" amid big rate increases for next year.

Department of Commerce Commissioner Mike Rothman said Friday that the five companies offering plans through the state's exchange or directly to consumers were prepared to leave the market for 2017.

He said big rate increases were the tradeoff to convince all but one company to remain for now.

Tesla Sales Double In Latest Quater, Year-Over-Year; Best Sales Quarter In Company's History -- October 2, 2016

From WSJ, based on Tesla press release:

• best sales quarter in company's history
• deliveries more than doubled from a year earlier
• deliveries in most recent quarter: 24,500
• 15,800 Model S sedans
• 8,700 Model X SUVs
• an additional 15,500 cars in transit and will be counted in 4Q16 deliveries
• guidance continues to suggest 50,000 cars will be delivered in calendar year 2016
• Model 3 slated for next year; sedan: $35,000
• MuskMelon predicts 500,000 annually beginning in 2018, two years earlier than expected

GM plans to bring out a fully electric Chevrolet Bolt later this year.

I believe the range for the Model 3 Tesla and the Chevrolet Bolt will range between 200 and 300 miles on a single charge.

I recently returned from a trip back to the Bakken. In my 2012 Honda Civic, bought from Ryan Motors, Williston, ND, back in December, 2011. I had no range anxiety. This photo was taken after I had already driven about 15 miles down the road and then noted the anticipated range based on a nearly full tank of gasoline, 87 octane with no ethanol, and driving conditions -- about 60 mph:

The range shown above is 586 miles after I had already driven about 15 miles; the "high" was actually 588 miles but I was too slow in getting the camera out. I forget now, but I believe this was taken just east of Sidney, Nebraska, where I had stopped to fill up.

On the trip north, from Grapevine, TX, to Williston, ND, I averaged almost 50 miles per gallon -- this was from Grapevine, TX, to about ten miles north of Wichita, Kansas (49.9 miles per gallon):

This was the highest "average" mileage per gallon of gasoline. Overall, on the 1,400-mile round trip from north Texas to northwest North Dakota, average mileage was never less than 40 mpg.

Update On North Dakota's Legacy Fund -- October 2, 2016

I track the Legacy Fund here.

Note: deposits do not equal asset value. Through September:

• deposits to date: $3.640 million (through September)
• value of assets (deposits + returns): $4.012 billion (through August)

September, 2016, from The Dickinson Press:

• equity (common stock): 50%
• fixed-income assets: 35%
• diversified real assets: 15% (real estate, 5$; infrastructure and inflation-linked securities, 10%) 
• has generated a return of 2.8% annually since inception
• a revised investment strategy adopted in 2013 set the long-term goat at 4.6%, but returns so far have fallen far short, just 1% for the most recent fiscal year that ended June 30
• lawmakers cannot spend from the Legacy Fund until July 1, 2017; but then in 2017, Legacy Funds must start to be transferred to general fund
• 2017 - 2019, biennium expectations: the Fund should generate about $120 million in earning
• the politicians will start to debate whether / when to start spending that money

Through September 2016, total deposits were $3,640,877,477. Another $31.9 million was deposited in September; slightly above this year's average but below August's deposit of $35.3 million, and a far cry from record high deposit of $117 million in August, 2014 (just before the Saudi surge and Saudi's trillion-dollar mistake)

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A Note For The Granddaughters

Cooking

Sophia's great-grandfather, Carl, is 95-years-old. He is in great health, great physical health, ambulates on his own, and his investment acumen is as good as ever. A couple of years ago he stumbled on the idea of giving a copper pan "as advertised on TV" to family members and friends. But to get one, one must visit him in person.

Our younger granddaughter Laura and I visited him last week. Laura and her husband Tim already had their frying pans, from an earlier visit, but this time, I got one. It took three visits before Dad agreed to give me one. I'm not sure why, but it is what it is.

Today, we (Sophia and I) tried out the pan. As good as advertised.

This was the note that accompanied the movie when I posted it on Facebook:

Great-grandpa Carl might give you a copper pan, but you have to visit him in person. Depending on his inventory, he may or may not have a pan for you. I was one of the lucky ones to get a pan when I visited him in North Dakota last week. Sophia and I had eggs over easy this Sunday morning. 

Two More DUCs -- October 2, 2016

Wells coming off confidential list Monday:

Monday, October 3, 2016

• None.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

• 32324, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-12, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Saturday, October 1, 2016

• 32325, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-1, Alkali Creek, no production data,

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The OPEC Announcement Means Squat -- WSJ

Link here.  

• "cut" not big enough
• won't happen "soon enough"
• WSJ sees the "cut" to be as much as 700,000 bopd -- I don' t know Nicole sees, but I certainly don't see any cut -- in fact, John Kemp suggests OPEC production might even increase under the "cut"
• nothing in the article that regular readers don't already know

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Non-Bakken

The only thing we learned (again) from The New York Times this week: the rich don't pay taxes.

Flashback: GM won't pay taxes for years; receives huge bailout from US government.

And, more recently, The New York Times paid no taxes in 2014:

As Forbes noted at the time:

… for tax year 2014, The New York Times paid no taxes and got an income tax refund of $3.5 million even though they had a pre-tax profit of $29.9 million in 2014.

In other words, their post-tax profit was higher than their pre-tax profit. The explanation in their 2014 annual report is,

“The effective tax rate for 2014 was favorably affected by approximately $21.1 million for the reversal of reserves for uncertain tax positions due to the lapse of applicable statutes of limitations.”

If you don’t think it took fancy accountants and tax lawyers to make that happen, read the statement again.

Meanwhile: