The Incredible Williston Basin; A Couple Of Madison Wells Each With More than 3 Million Bbls Crude 0il Cumulative -- September 22, 2021

Re-posting.

I hate it when these incredible stories get lost in the shuffle.

True Oil, LLC, has another permit for a Red Wing Creek Madison well, permit #38575 (no scout ticket yet). Incredibly inexpensive to drill (vertical wells) and inexpensive to complete (not fracked).

Red Wing Creek:

• in section 27-148-101: approximately twelve vertical wells; these are Madison wells;
• #38575 will be located near:
• 13590, IA/239, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 32-27, t8/94; cum 275K 6/21; off line 7/21;
• 5260, 396, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 33-27, t2/74; cum 3.533689 million bbls 7/21; forty-seven years old;
  
• 5323, 917, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 42-27, t11/73; cum 3.316674 million bbls 7/21; forty-eight years old;
  
• 15417, 94, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 43-27, t8/03; cum 245K 7/21;

Slawson With Three New Permits; WTI Closes At $72 -- September 22, 2021

ISO NE: spiked to $96 / MWh today. Link here. It's autumn: neither heating nor a/c should be much of an issue. It looks like "they" imported expensive hydro-electricity from Canada to make up the shortfall.

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: NDIC is no long posting the number of active rigs in North Dakota. This is my best estimate:

$71.99	9/22/2021	09/22/2020	09/22/2019	09/22/2018	09/22/2017
Active Rigs	26	11	58	66	58

Four new permits, #38575 - #38578, inclusive:

• Operators: Slawson (3); True Oil, LLC
• Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); Red Wing Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• True Oil has a permit for a Red Wing Creek well, it will be sited in SWNE 27-148-101, 1447 FNL and 2378 FEL
• Slawson has permits for three wells: a Howitzer, a Lightning Federal, and a Rainmaker Federal; all three, despite their name differences, will be sited in SWSE 24-152-93; they will be sited 325 FSL and between 426 FWL and 326 FWL;

Red Wing Creek:

• in section 27-148-101: approximately twelve vertical wells; these are Madison wells;
• #38575 will be located near:
• 13590, IA/239, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 32-27, t8/94; cum 275K 6/21; off line 7/21;
• 5260, 396, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 33-27, t2/74; cum 3.533689 million bbls 7/21; forty-seven years old;
  
• 5323, 917, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 42-27, t11/73; cum 3.316674 million bbls 7/21; forty-eight years old;
  
• 15417, 94, True Oil, Red Wing Creek Unit 43-27, t8/03; cum 245K 7/21;

Notes From All Over -- The Epic Apple Edition -- September 22, 2021

First things first: DUC data in the Bakken posted at this link. 

Coal: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:

• expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
• is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
• this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
• the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
• remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
• supply decline driven by two factors:
• inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
• the compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
• much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia
  

Crude in storage: tea leaves suggest US crude oil storage including SPR will hit the 2010 - 2014 average. Link here.  

Crude oil demand: will rebound to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022 -- COP/CEO. 

Six-month high: a rounding error, perhaps, but with a straight face Tsvetana Paraskova can say Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose to its highest volume in six months, link here:

• exports rose above six million bpd in July, 2021
• exports hit 6.327 million bpd in July,
• in June? averaged 5.965 million bpd
• delta: 360,000 bpd (a third of Bakken daily production
• this sort of makes sense: as Saudi's summer domestic demand decreases, Saudi can export more oil even without producing any more crude oil 
• in other words: a non-story as far as Saudi production goes
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

AAPL: up $2.58. One of the best days ever.

But best from Apple, Inc, today: despite court's ruling, Apple won't allow Epic back in the App Store anytime soon. 

At the link, read the comments. I've never seen unanimity on any issue as this one. Truly amazing. I thought everyone reading MacRumors hated Apple; they may, but they all hate Epic and Fortnite even more. The conditions that Apple set for re-instating Epic in the App Store following the court ruling means that it can't happen for about one hundred years. 

Facebook: sinks on Apple ad-tracking warning. Down four percent.

Fedex: worst performer in S&P 500 today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The September Swoon -- September 22, 2021

The Fed, first out of the chute:

• I don't think I've heard more transparency from a politician
  
• even after such a plain-spoken speech, reporters still asked questions that were answered in the prepared remarks
• most disappointing: some questions were asked three times
• Steve Liesman actually said the question he asked was asked three times
  
• immediately after the remarks and Q&A, CNBC seemed to try to make Powell seem more bearish than he might have been
  
• analysts say they need to read the transcript
• consensus:
• Fed will announce beginning of taper next month (November, 2021)
• it will take a "good" jobs report to make that announcement
• the bar is low for a "good" jobs report
  
• begin taper the following month (December, 2021)
• complete taper by June, 2022; this simply means ending buying -- at least that's how I heard it -- doesn't mean start selling -- but then I may have misunderstood this
• raising rates: won't begin until taper ends
• first rate hike: no earlier than 3Q21 and we're only talking a quarter of a percent
• reappointment of Jay Powell; of course, it was never discussed, but allowing Fed members to buy shares in same companies that the Fed was buying is a huge weapon for those who want Powell removed
• what did "the market" think? LOL. The market loved it. One could literally watch the Dow move up during he prepared remarks
• if the market drops before the market closes: profit taking
  

For the archives:

• Dow up: 385 points; had been as much as 500 points up
• S&P 500: up 50 points
• NASDAQ: up 122 points

Can't wait to listen to Jim Cramer later this afternoon. 

Just Finished LIsenting To Jay Powell -- September 22, 2021

Random Update Of MRO Wells Starting To Produce -- September 22, 2021

This page won't be updated. These wells are tracked at this link.

The reason for the update: most recently these wells were conf; now they are drl/NC.

The wells:

• 37673, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Herman USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, minimal production, 6/21;
  
• 37674, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Hartson USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, minimal production, 6/21;
• 37675-->drl/NC, MRO, Etherington USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, minimal production, 6/21;
• 37676-->drl/NC, MRO, Copeland USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, minimal production, 6/21;
• 37677-->drl/NC, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, minimal production, 6/21;

Parent well, to the north:

• 17771, IA/585, MRO, Jay Sandstrom USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, t3/09; cum 542K 10/20; off line 11/20 remains off line 7/21;

Notes From All Over -- The Slim Chickens Edition -- Part 3 -- September 22, 2021

UK calamity: two UK power companies have collapsed; government braces for more casualties. Avro Energy and Green supplied 835,000 customers between them. No link; google it.

Williston: a building boom:

Bakken economy: Slim Chickens broke ground -- newest location in Williston Square. Williston Herald. 

Williston Square welcomed its first resident on Tuesday with the official groundbreaking ceremony for Slim Chickens. 

Slim Chickens was announced to be one of the first businesses to enter the Square in October of 2020. The restaurant, owned and operated by Preferred Restaurant Group Inc. of Minot, will feature 3,430 square foot building for dining in, along with space for parking and a dual drive-through.

Preferred Restaurant Group owns four Slim Chickens and 14 Taco John's restaurants, including the one in Williston, which President and CEO Mike Sartwell said is the franchises' most successful. That success, he said, will hopefully translate to this newest restaurant offering.

With construction on the building already underway, Sartwell said he's excited to be one the first businesses to set up shop in the 800-acre development. Economic Development Director Shawn Wenko commented that Slim Chickens' location in the Square will feature several restaurant and retail options, with Slim Chickens being the first business to go vertical. Construction is expected to continue through December, with the hope that the restaurant will open its doors to the public in January 2022.

Williston Square? See this link.

Dozens of new businesses have come into Williston this year, and 2020 is expected to be even busier due to redevelopment of the 800-acre Sloulin Field International Airport site, now known as the Williston Square.

Plans for the area include a civic center, casual and fast food restaurants, more apartment buildings or single-family homes, and big-box retailers. Williston Economic Development says due to the old airport’s ideal location within town, interest from developers and investors is high, and moving a lot faster than anticipated.

The Williston Square redevelopment project has been in the planning stages for five years, and within the next two weeks, the layout of roads and infrastructure will be unveiled.

Williston Square: website here. 

Random Update Of CLR's Salers And Salers Federal Wells In The Antelope-Sanish -- September 22, 2021

This page will not be updated. These wells are updated and tracked at this link.

Most interesting about this drilling unit: there are currently seven producing wells in this drilling unit, all targeting the same formation. It appears there could eventually be another dozen wells in this drilling unit.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there may be typographical and/or factual errors. I may have missed something or may have misread something. This is simply to help me understand the Bakken better. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

The wells, section 27-152-94; Antelope oil field, Sanish pool:

• 28334, 1,297, CLR, Salers Federal 7-27H, 30 stages, 3.8 million lbs, Antelope, t11/15; cum 737K 6/19; cum 848K 7/21;
  
• 28335, 1,197, CLR, Salers Federal 6-27H1, 31 (no typo) stages, 5.9 million lbs, Antelope, t11/15; cum 650K 6/19; cum 753K 7/21;
  

• 28331, 1,576, CLR, Salers Federal 5-27H, 30 stages, 4 million lbs, Antelope, t10/15; cum 524K 6/19; cum 595K 7/21;
  
• 28332, 1,373, CLR, Salers Federal 4-27H1, 30 stages, 6.1 million lbs, Antelope, t10/15; cum 549K 6/19; cum 631K 7/21;
  

• 25814, 1,256, CLR, Salers 1-27, Antelope, 30 stages, 5.9 million lbs, t5/14; cum 401K 6/19; cum 417K 7/21;
  
• 25815, 1,351, CLR, Salers 2-27H, Antelope, 30 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t6/14; cum 612K 6/19; cum 655K 7/21;
  

• 28330, 1,716, CLR, Salers Federal 3-27H, Antelope, 50 stages, 19.23 million lbs, t10/14; cum 750K 6/19; cum 854K 7/21;

CDC's Interim Operational Considerations -- AKA Plan B -- Shielding Rooms -- September 22, 2021

I love the "things" readers catch. I would never have seen this. From the CDC, apparently eight pages of nonsense -- I did not get past the first paragraph of page one of eight pages. 

Apparently this is the CDC's PLAN B if vaccines, masks, social distancing, mandates, ivermectin, monoclonal antibodies, and prayer fail: the "shielding" approach, everything from "safe rooms" to SpaceX launches to Mars.

I forgot acupuncture.

Anyway, seriously, the "safe" rooms. Hellooo! NFL fans have had these for years: they're called man-caves. 

And for the extended family plan: they're called mother-in-law apartments in the attic. 

If the US House gets its way, we will have daycare funding 24/7 for infants to pre-K -- thus keeping the youngsters away from their parents 365/24/7. What a great country. Moms can finally go back to work, all-day, every day.

Growing up in North Dakota, we had basements where I lived for eighteen years, pretty much isolated from the rest of my family. A bit of radon exposure but that was about the only downside. 

Anyway, enough of this. I've got to go looking for a new easy chair for my new man-cave. Seriously. I hope my wife doesn't read this.

CLR's Candee Wells In Chimney Butte -- September 22, 2021

This page won't be updated; the CLR Candee wells are tracked at this link.

This is being re-posted in full for several reasons, for the benefit of newbies:

• note the number of wells that CLR keeps adding to established drilling units;
• look at the chronologic number of the first Candee well drilled (#11); this was something I talked about a long, long time ago;
• the number of wells that are off line; multiply this across the Bakken and one understands why production data in the Bakken is down a bit as reflected in recent production data.

See this post for more in-depth data.

The Candee wells, those in red, were added September 22, 2021:

• 38249, conf, CLR, Candee 9-9HSL, Chimney Butte,
  
• 38250, conf, CLR, Candee 10-9H1, Chimney Butte,
• 38154, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL1, Chimney Butte,
• 38153, conf, CLR, Candee 13-9HSL, Chimney Butte,
• 32095, 68 (no typo), CLR, Candee 7-9H, Chimney Butte, 27 stages; 12 million lbs, t6/18; cum 44K 9/19; cum 69K 10/20; off line 11/20; remains off line 7/21;
  
• 32093, 1,409, CLR, Candee 8-9H1, Chimney Butte, 46 stages, 11.7 million lbs; t9/17; cum 373K 9/19; nice well; too early to tell how it will turn out; cum 429K 6/21; off line 7/21;
  
• 29475, 941, CLR, Candee 6-9H, Chimney Butte, t5/15; cum 282K 9/19; cum 321K 6/21; off line 7/21;
  
• 29474, 1,088, CLR, Candee 5-9H1, Chimney Butte, t5/15; cum 256K 9/19; cum 289K 6/21; off line 7/21;
  
• 29473, 1,001, CLR, Candee 4-9H, Chimney Butte, 30 stages, 3.3 million lbs, large sand, small ceramic, t5/15; cum 330K 9/19; cum 367K 6/21; off line 7/21;
  
• 20548, 356, CLR, Candee 2-9H, Chimney Butte, t3/12; cum 291K 9/19; cum 308K 2/21;
• 20546, 813, CLR, Candee 3-9H, Chimney Butte, 27 stages, 2.7 million lbs, t4/12; cum 304K 9/19; cum 312K 7/21; remains on line;
• 16509, IA/484, CLR, Candee 11-9H, Chimney Butte, dual lateral, 1 stage, 1 million lbs, t6/07; cum 206K 9/19; not much production since 2017; cum 206K 8/20; off line 9/20; remains off line 7/21;

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- September 22, 2021

Holy mackerel: ISO NE -- $75 this morning. Link here. This is autumn: heating not yet needed; a/c not needed.

• natural gas: 63%
• nuclear: 24%
• nothing else matters, does it?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Dow: up 200 at the opening.

• Energy SPDR: up almost 3%
• DVN: up over 5% today; just now Jim Cramer says DVN best in the oil patch
• highlighted DVN's variable dividend
• track DVN here;
  

FedEx: leading indicator

• shortage of employees will affect companies well into 2022

Netflix: huge acquisition, link here:

• buying entire library of Roald Dahl
• this is the firm's (Netflix) biggest acquisition to date
• already had a relationship; now cements it
• building its content arsenal in streaming wars against rivals, including Disney+, Amazon Prime, and HBO Max;
• much, much more at the link
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Legacy Fund: still waiting for September deposits data. Link here.

EIA weekly petroleum report: Link here.

• US crude oil in storage decreased by a moderate 3.5 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage now stands at 414.0 million bbls; 85 below the five-year average
• refiners are operating at 87.5% of their operable capacity
• US crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million bopd, increased by 0.7 million bopd; over the past four weeks, imports have averaged about 6.1 million bbls per day; almost 20% more than the same four-week period last year -- and a lot of that is coming from Russia
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.6 million bbls last week; inventories now stand at 14% below the five-year average
• total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.6 million bbls last week
• but look at this: total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.0 million bbls per day, up by almost 20% from same period last year, the year of the plague year, but we need comparisons to 2019, pre-pandemic; comparisons with last year are almost meaningless;
• jet fuel supplied was up a whopping 70.4% compared with same period last year;

 Distillate fuel:

Distillate Fuel Inventories
Week	Date of Report	Change in Millions	Relative to 5-Yr Avg
Week 42	June 10, 2021	4.40	-5.0%
Week 43	June 16, 2021	-1.00	-6.0%
Week 44	June 23, 2021	1.80	-4.0%
Week 45	June 30, 2021	0.90	-5.0%
Week 46	July 8, 2021	1.60	-6.0%
Week 47	July 14, 2021	3.70	-4.0%
Week 48	July 21, 2021	-1.30	-4.0%
Week 49	July 28, 2021	-3.10	-7.0%
Week 50	August 4, 2021	0.80	-6.0%
Week 51	August 11, 2021	1.80	-6.0%
Week 52	August 18, 2021	-2.70	-8.0%
Week 53	August 25, 2021	0.60	-8.0%
Week 54	September 1, 2021	-1.70	-9.0%
Week 55	September 9, 2021	-3.10	-12.0%
Week 56	September 15, 2021	-1.70	-13.0%
Week 57	September 22, 2021	-2.60	-14.0%

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 17	July 8, 2020	7.4	1.400	-8.500%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	7.5	-1.800	-10.200%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	5.9	0.373	-13.500%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	5.1	-0.800	-13.600%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	6.0	0.900	-18.100%
Week 67	June 23, 2021	6.9	0.197	-1.00%
Week 68	June 30, 2021	6.4	-0.500	2.80%
Week 69	July 8, 2021	5.9	-0.500	-2.20%
Week 70	July 14, 2021	6.2	0.347	-0.10%
Week 71	July 21, 2021	7.1	0.900	2.90%
Week 72	July 28, 2021	6.5	-0.600	6.90%
Week 73	August 4, 2021	6.4	-0.075	15.80%
Week 74	August 11, 2021	6.5	-0.036	16.30%
Week 75	August 18, 2021	6.4	-0.064	14.10%
Week 76	August 25, 2021	6.2	-0.193	8.80%
Week 77	September 1, 2021	6.3	-0.183	13.90%
Week 78	September 8, 2021	5.8	-0.500	12.20%
Week 79	September 15, 2021	5.8	-0.048	13.30%
Week 80	September 22, 2021	6.5	0.700	18.90%

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 54	June 3, 2021	137.80%
Week 55	June 10, 2021	95.10%
Week 56	June 16, 2021	86.80%
Week 56	June 23, 2021	97.50%
Week 57	June 30, 2021	83.50%
Week 58	July 8, 2021	89.10%
Week 59	July 14, 2021	65.90%
Week 60	July 21, 2021	49.50%
Week 61	July 28, 2021	39.40%
Week 62	August 4, 2021	42.90%
Week 63	August 11, 2021	45.80%
Week 64	August 18, 2021	56.10%
Week 65	August 25, 2021	45.40%
Week 66	September 1, 2021	51.70%
Week 67	September 9, 2021	65.30%
Week 68	September 15, 2021	59.10%
Week 69	September 22, 2021	70.40%