WTI; $85.11. Maintaining.
Natural gas: $7.764. Sliding.
Active rigs: 45
Four new oil and gas permits, #39247 - #39250, inclusive:
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
But if you have a 40-year horizon, does it matter?
In a sidebar to a reader:
When the market gets this crazy, I don't follow it very closely but via Twitter I see that FedEx plunged, maybe 25%.
The other problem with FedEx -- a one-trick pony? Amazon probably makes more money off services, streaming, and the cloud (AWS) than it makes on selling books.
The CEO blames the global economy.
One needs to ask whether USPS, UPS, DHL, Amazon are "eating FedEx' lunch"?
For shipping small packages, FedEx is incredibly expensive. When it positively, absolutely has to get there overnight, this is no longer much of a slogan when Amazon delivers in two hours.
I don't invest in FedEx.
But if I did, I would have had 1,000 shares of FedEx yesterday.
And I would still have 1,000 shares of FedEx today.
And Sophia is going to inherit 1,000 shares.
Doesn't bother me a bit.
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Speaking Of Amazon
Published September 13, 2022 (or maybe September 15, 2022, I forget).
Ordered September 15, 2022.
Arrived today.
Tropical depression from yesterday has either dissipated or moved south.
All we have today is a very minor depression east of the Lesser Antilles. [Later: a tropical storm. See first comment.] [Friday night: forecast now to be a hurricane. Strength and US landfall not specified.]
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The Book Page
First drafts published; need to be edited, which will be done over time.
I've still not seen a good explanation tying this altogether.
Generally, inflation associated with "hot economy."
We have inflation (rent, used cars, groceries), but GDP does not suggest a "hot economy." Quite the opposite. A struggling economy. And the fed response: take actions to further depress the economy. I don't know.
BLS: link here. Generally, folks follow U-3. With current situation, U-1 makes a lot more sense.
Sriracha: link here.
Tesla: gassing with propane.
Bogus graphic: link here. Here. Here.
Streaming:
NFL: Thursday Night Football -- link here:
Although the game will be available on television in the home markets of any team that plays on Thursdays, everyone else will have to watch the game on Prime (This means that tonight's game will be on over-the-air television in both Los Angeles and Kansas City).
Predicted:
Other:
Brittney Griner:
The book page:
Weights: benefits of lifting weights. My daily exercise regimen includes:
Turkey: with Russia collapsing in the Ukraine, the elephant in the room: Turkey; from Peter Zeihan:
There is an elephant in the room in many of these scenarios... and that's Turkey.
Whatever their current economic headaches, the Turkish state under Erdogan has maintained a constant march toward realizing a populist, Islamist-tinged, pan-Turkic nationalism that has played out in several ways.
One of the most recent has been Turkey's arming and not-so-tacit support of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia.
Even with Turkey's erstwhile EU aspirations and current NATO membership, Ankara has been equally at ease in pursuing its own priorities during the bloc's conflict with the Russians over Ukraine.
But perhaps nowhere will see the full unfurling of Turkish geopolitical ambition in the wake of Russian strategic senescence more than Syria.
The Alawite regime in Damascus relies (relied?) heavily on its Russian and Iranian backers, and with Moscow out of the way Ankara faces little opposition. Squashing Kurdish ambitions, redrawing borders, setting up a puppet state, coordinating with Israel to counter Iran--all are on the table for a would be neo-Ottoman Turkey without strong pushback from Russia and Iran.
Pat on the back: I mentioned this in a sidebar with a reader just a few days ago -- Russia has little appetite/capability for Mideast mischief right now.
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Gasoline Demand
When I saw the gasoline demand numbers being reported a month ago, I was skeptical, very skeptical. It was not what I was seeing in north Texas. But I'm no longer skeptical. One can only "manipulate" the data so long, and now it's been a month, and the data continues to get worse.
If one feels strongly that gasoline demand correlates with economic well-being of the US, it's hard not to see more talk of a recession. GDP forecast has just been slashed and is now barely positive. Latest estimate: 0.5 percent; down from 1.3% just one week ago.
Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: $84.90. A very real concern that WTI could collapse, taking US oil sector with it -- Biden administration.
Natural gas: $8.070
Monday, September 19, 2022: 29 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 418 for the year
Sunday, September 18, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year
Saturday, September 17, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year
RBN Energy: a new perspective on RINs -- the tax-and-subsidize interpretation, part 4.
What has been the most controversial topic in the U.S. refining industry over the last 10 years? Well, it’s a matter of opinion but, judging from time spent in earnings conference calls, law offices, courtrooms, congressional committees, the White House, and other forums of business and political debate, Renewable Identification Numbers — or RINs — would have to be a top contender for that prize. In today’s RBN blog and the final episode of this series, we consider two differing viewpoints on the effects of the RIN system and specific disagreements — or are they misunderstandings? — about the financial consequences of RINs that have dominated the debates and legal cases.
Posting September 16, 2022.
Ticker:
PR: Yahoo!Finance.
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JP Morgan
SeekingAlpha contributor: JPM -- overweight EOG, Permian Resources; upgrade from neutral; also upgraded Vermillion Energy (VET)
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Alex Kimani
Over at oilprice.com, September 15, 2022
Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
From a reader:
Take a look at the DVN ten-year bond.
DVN ten-year bond: 7.950 interest rate
The demand for this five-month-old BAA3 is in so much demand, one must pay $116.048 for a $100 face-value bond.
So if you hold this bond until maturity 04/15/32 this instrument would net yield you 5.746 interest rate.
So if one thinks of all the stuff DVN has bought in last year or so, and the rising interest rates. the folks must think DVN is a pretty strong company to have their bonds sell at sixteen percent over par.
