Locator: 46713INV.
Earnings, Friday, February 2, 2024, 6:15 a.m. ET
Locator: 46711B.
Later: no shadow seen; early spring!
Anticipating Friday, February 2, 2024:
Locator: 46710INV.
More than $6 trillion "on the sidelines." Some talking heads on CNBC and some tweeters opine that a lot of that money could flow back into the equity market in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates. Not gonna happen. Most of that money was moved from checking and savings accounts at banks. Huge problem for regional banks. Some of that MMF money will flow back into the equity market but most of it will stay in MMFs. Compared to MMFs, equities are riskier and even at 2%, MMF compare favorably with equities in many cases.
People that put money into MMFss are not going to put that money into the stock market. At least not $6 trillion. My mother exemplified the typical "investor" in MMFs, as does my wife.
Locator: 46709B.
WTI: $74.24.
Active rigs: 38.
Three new permits, #40495 - #40497, inclusive:
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 16 | 13934 | 13451 | 42536 | 8617 | 7550 | 829 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 17 | 15183 | 15112 | 48678 | 10314 | 10085 | 162 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 14 | 19550 | 19459 | 51303 | 12140 | 11873 | 189 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 13 | 9952 | 9607 | 34894 | 6631 | 5828 | 618 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 7 | 3329 | 3214 | 13117 | 2205 | 1938 | 2 |
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Biden's LNG Export Pause
RBN Energy: gauging the impact of the DOE's pause in LNG export licenses. Archived.
There’s no doubt about it: The Biden administration’s decision to pause approval of LNG export licenses poses a new threat to a number of projects thought to be nearing a final investment decision (FID).
The questions brought on by the move are profound: how big of a problem is this for U.S. developers, how does the timeout affect the projects now in limbo, and — over the longer term — what does the added uncertainty regarding incremental LNG exports mean for U.S. crude oil and natural gas production and what does it mean for the global energy landscape? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the factors that led to the administration’s announcement — and the case to be made that expanded LNG exports are in the U.S.’s economic and strategic interest.
The U.S.’s mammoth reserves of natural gas, combined with strong global demand for LNG, have spurred a sharp rise in LNG export volumes over the past few years. As recently as December, an average of about 14 Bcf/d of LNG — or around 14% of the dry gas produced in the U.S. each day — is being liquefied and shipped overseas, almost all of it from export terminals along the Gulf Coast. And, with several new LNG export projects under construction, we expect those volumes to nearly double over the next four years.
Locator: 46708TECH.
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
We can start here, Vanity Fair, February 1, 2024.
The first time Tim Cook experienced the Apple Vision Pro, it wasn’t called the Apple Vision Pro. It was years ago; maybe six, seven, or even eight. Before the company built Apple Park, where we’re sitting right now, at a bleached oak table in this incredible circular edifice of a building clad in miles of curved glass. It’s been raining, and the clouds are clearing over the pine trees and the rows of citrus and maple trees, and the sun is reflecting off the pond in the meadow, and it’s kind of mesmerizing. And Cook’s telling me about that time, all those years ago, in his dulcet Robertsdale, Alabama, accent, when he first saw it.
It was at Mariani 1, a nondescript low-rise building on the edge of the old Infinite Loop campus with blacked-out windows. This place is so secret, it’s known as one of Apple’s “black ops” facilities. Nearly all of the thousands of employees who work at Apple have never set foot inside one. There are multiple layers of doors that lock behind and in front of you. But Cook is the CEO and can go anywhere. So he strolls past restricted rooms where foldable iPhones and MacBooks with retractable keyboards or transparent televisions were dreamed up. Where these devices, almost all of which will never leave this building, are stored in locked Pelican cases inside locked cupboards.
From that same Vanity Fair article:
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Previously Reported: Vision Pro / F-35
Locator: 46071APPLE.
From the September, 2023, issue of Combat Aircraft, page 59. Tag: Vision Pro, F-35.
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. plan to aggressively ramp up production from the Permian Basin this year in what could be an early sign that US oil output may surpass expectations once again, like it did in 2023.
Chevron is targeting 10% growth this year, more than twice the pace of publicly-traded independent oil companies, setting it on course to pump 1 million barrels a day from the region in 2025.
Exxon sees production growth of nearly 7%, but is expected to double its overall output once it completes the $60 billion of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. by mid-year.
“We are in the best parts of the Permian,” Chevron Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber said during an interview. “Our growth is higher likely than the basin average but it is representative of our activity level and the activity level of our partners.”
The pace of US oil production last year surprised traders and analysts, pressuring prices and piling pressure on the OPEC+ alliance to restrain output. Exxon and Chevron’s Permian development plans are closely watched as they are already among the basin’s biggest producers, meaning their growth rates are coming on top of already high output levels, adding to global supplies.
Analysts were skeptical Chevron would meet its full-year production guidance because of several poor quarters during which the company struggled with infrastructure problems and other operational issues. But a knockout fourth quarter saw Chevron produce 867,000 barrels of oil a day, 12% higher than the previous quarter.
Production growth in 2024 will be similarly “back-end loaded” to the latter half of the year and may drop in the first half, Breber said.
IN PROGRESS
This was not supposed to happen, from the Reuters link above:
U.S. oil and gas drilling has slowed in response to the fall in prices over the last 18 months, but that has not yet translated into slower production, keeping prices under pressure.
Exploration and production firms have continued to increase output despite drilling fewer wells, by concentrating on the best sites, accelerating drilling times and boring longer horizontal sections for each well.
In the oil market, efficiency gains have frustrated efforts by Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC⁺ to drain global oil inventories and boost prices.
In gas, where there is no equivalent of OPEC⁺, continued production growth has kept prices close to three-decade lows in real terms.
The critical question is how much longer efficiency gains can keep driving significant output growth without an increase in prices and drilling.
The number of active rigs drilling for oil averaged 498 in November 2023 down from a high of 623 in December 2022, according to weekly counts published by oilfield services company Baker Hughes.
But production continued to increase and set a new monthly record of 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
From the Yahoo!Finance link above:
US oil production soared to a record 13.3 million barrels a day last week.
The surge in oil production comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The US is the largest oil producer in the world, surpassing Russia's 9.5 million barrel a day production rate, and well ahead of Saudi Arabia's daily production rate of 9.1 million barrels a day.
What's perhaps most impressive about the steady surge in oil production is the fact that the weekly US oil rig count remains well below the 2014 peak of more than 1,600 rigs. There were just 501 active oil rigs in the US last week, representing a 69% decline from the 2014 peak. That shows just how efficient America's energy industry has become after a period of depressed oil prices from 2014 through 2021.
"Crude production is cyclical, but over the last decade and a half has registered a strong uptrend relative to operating rigs or employment in the oil and gas industry. This is a powerful form of technological progress and productivity growth," Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams told Business Insider in October.
There are plenty of economic benefits to America as it consistently becomes a net exporter of crude oil. Adams highlighted that it makes America's economy more resilient and reduces the chance of a recession in 2024. It also reduces the risk of 1970s-style stagflation, which was in part driven by oil supply shocks.
Locator: 46705INV.
USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY. THIS WAS DONE QUICKLY, ON THE FLY. THERE WILL BY CONTENT AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. DATA DYNAMIC.
Earnings:
Apple, beat on top and bottom; finally, revenue growth after four quarters of consecutive declines; a mixed picture;
Amazon, in-line or better in every category; huge success; recession? What recession?
META, incredible results; huge; recession? What recession? META wouldn’t be initiating a dividend if they anticipated a recession.
From Forbes, regarding META. Either I'm misreading this or it has to be corrected or somehow sorted out:
This is absolutely astounding:
Locator: 46704B.
So, this is on what the entire US economy depends, according to all the buy-side analysts on CNBC. LOL:
After the close today: Apple, Amazon, Meta -- huge today. Forget earnings --- watch market caps. Unprecedented. Historical.
But .... drum roll today ... beyond the banner. Today ... The Drudge Report.
Dumb and dumber: MAGA and QAnon taking on Taylor Swift. All of a sudden the polls have changed?
Never let a crisis go to waste.
Tesla moving to Texas.
This is simply going to be a most amazing day.
Jobs reports.
Look at Norfolk Southern today.
Everything ... everything suggests -- the Fed waited six months too long.
I'll be at a Schwab briefing today.
It's gonna be a crazy day.
Personal investing -- personal best. LOL. I added RACE to my portfolio sometime in 2023 -- for the grandsons in Portland, Oregon -- can't remember exactly when I started my position -- after reading the 10-K. See ticker below the disclaimer. At end of day, RACE closed up $43. Whoo-hoo!
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
Personal best, first-time ever:
