Saturday, July 25, 2026

Earnings -- On Pace For Strongest Quarter Since 2021 -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51264EARNINGS.

Observation: Covid-19 was a respiratory virus ... and we ran out of toilet paper. 

Meanwhile, there is no toilet paper shortage (nor any run on toilet paper) during a parasitic explosive diarrhea national outbreak. What would Dr Fauci do? Tell me again, we're not being manipulated by the media ... and the price of eggs is controlled by the president.

Anyway, back to earnings  

One may want to take a look at this, posted earlier. 

Link here. 




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The Bond Rout -- Barron's -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51263BONDS.

Quote of the day: "Infertility is hereditary. If your parents can't have kids, neither can you." -- RFK, Jr. 

Now, back to bonds. 

Link here. 

A nice article to explain a little bit of what's going on right now in the bond market.

It provides a little information but it reads like a little bit of filler for a Barron's article.  

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Apple AirTags (Second Generation)

Much more interesting, much more useful, and much more fun than talking about bonds. 

I just got a four-pack on sale at Amazon. Not sure how long they will be on sale.  

Link here. As he says in the video, you can never have too many AirTags. 

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Something Afoot? CENTCOM -- No New Attacks In 48 Hours; Lots Of Diplomatic Activity Reported Involving Oman And Tehran -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51262IRAN.

Nothing to report except to post this as a marker. Last CENTCOM attack two days ago, July 23, 2026.

My hunch: simply another opportunity for Iran to re-position, re-arm.  Although the blockade has to be having some effect. 

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Saudi Arabia Export Update -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51261SAUDI.

Link here. 

From the linked article:

Saudi Arabia, which at the start of the Iran war redirected virtually all crude exports through its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, has seen crude exports from Yanbu crumble by 41% to about 2.39 million barrels per day (bpd) by June, from a peak of 4.07 million bpd in March, Wood Mackenzie vessel tracking and cargo data showed.

Despite the near-total concentration of exports through Yanbu, volumes have declined steadily from the March peak, according to WoodMac's tracking data. By June, Yanbu loadings had fallen to around 2.39 million bpd, down by 41% from the March peak and a 66% slump from the total Saudi export level from January of about 7.96 million bpd across both Gulf and Red Sea terminals.

“For months, the market treated Yanbu as the answer to Hormuz risk,” said Ian Solis, data analyst, Tech/Maritime-Ops for Wood Mackenzie.

“The problem is that Yanbu has its own chokepoint. If Bab al-Mandeb comes under sustained disruption from a declared Houthi naval blockade, Asia stands to lose a major crude supply artery,” the analyst noted.

This week, the Iran-aligned Houthis appeared to make good on their pledge to target Saudi Arabia’s oil exports from the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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Sports Today -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51260SPORTS.

NASCAR, of course. Brickyard 400 on Sunday, Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The junior varsity races today (Saturday) at 3:00 p.m. Central, and the Brickyard 400 will air at 1:00 p.m. Central tomorrow (Sunday). 

PGA, 3M Open: up until the 11th hole, third round, it looked like Scottie Scheffler was continuing to implode -- but all of a sudden he looks like he's on the move. He is 5-back but he has the rest of this round (seven holes) plus the final day tomorrow.  

I don't care what anyone says, the chatbots are a whole lot better than the old "search."

"You can howl at the wind, but AI is here to stay." 

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Somehow, Investing In Tech Makes No Sense -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51259TECH.

Tag: tech valuations Micron Apple MU AAPL 

Update

July 26, 2026: How crazy will it get? Link here. This is just over the next three years. Are they any legacy Fortune 500 companies making money like this? 

Original Post 

 
There are many, many stories that shortages of key chips are going to last a lot longer than expected (see "Trump in between Micron and Apple") and then these p/e's from the colorful chart below, as examples:

  • TSMC: 19
  • MU: 6

AMD is interestingly not shown in that colorful chart but from AI, a p/e of 30 to 45, for AMD, 2027, is suggested. That's about where AAPL is right now, and it's best performer among the Mag 7 in the past six months?


From Shay, link here:  


Link here (same as above, for Shay), it's a very, very long essay and well worth the read. If that link breaks/disappears, Shay's narrative without the links is here.

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Focus On Dividends -- July 25, 2026

Locator: 51258DIV.

Tag: Williams, WMB 

Before we get to the dividends, this just popped up at Barron's on WMB. Link here.  

Now, back to dividends. 

Link here. 

Wow, we haven't done this in a long time, updating dividend changes.

BNY: from 53 cents / share to 63 cents /share, record date, July 27, 2026.

AAPL: from 26 cents / share to 27 cents / share, record date, May 11, 2026. 

TTE: from 97.354 cents / share to 97.076 cents / share, record date, July 1, 2026 (currency-related?).

ENB: from 71.169 cents / share to 70.632 cents / share, record date, July 1, 2026 (currency-related?).

EPD: from 55 cents / share to 56 cents / share, record date, July 31, 2026.

DVN: from 24 cents / share to 32 cents / share, record date, June 15, 2026.

VNOM: from 52 cents / share to 68 cents / share, record date, May 14, 2026.

CNP: from 23 cents / share to 24 cents / share, record date, August 20, 2026.

TSM: from 74.179 cents / share to 74.207 cents / share, record date, June 11, 2026 (currently-related?).

CAT: from $1.51 / share to $1.63 / share, record date, July 20, 2026.

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Disclaimer

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.  
    • Posted by at

    Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 25, 2026

    Locator: 51257WELLS.

    The wells:

    • 42089, conf, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone 32-29-20 3H, Skabo, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262169912185
    4-20262308010179
    3-2026160930
    2-202688480
    • 42088, conf, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone 32-29 2H, Skabo, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261897712190
    4-2026201799620
    3-2026115790
    2-202668290
    • 42087, conf, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone 32-29-20 1H, Skabo, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261928311941
    4-20262381511073
    3-2026213110
    2-202679410
    • 42078, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, K&L Hegstad South W 158-92-10-22-1MBHX, Cottonwood, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261790911528
    4-20261779713039
    3-20262106013180
    2-2026173168615
    • 41275, conf, Oasis, Stepanek 5201 13-18 2B, Elk, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-202696468539
    4-20262176118085
    3-20262156617075
    2-20261913311608
    • 42108, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S617HF, Frazier, npd,
    • 42020, conf, Murfin Drilling, LC Rambousek 1-10H, St Anthony,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-202636862148
    4-202662113502
    3-202644332325
    2-2026106977367
    • 41435, conf, Whiting, Jefferson Federal 5003 42-14 5B, Foreman Butte, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262272417662
    4-20262543917646
    3-20262163817065
    2-20262039113859
    • 42107, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S515HF, Frazier, npd,
    • 42106, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S513HF, Frazier, npd, 
    • 41698, conf, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-8, Truax, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261497545862
    4-20262010154537
    3-20262318848417
    2-20262374846334
    • 41440, conf, Whiting, Jefferson Federal 5003 42-14 10BX, Foreman Butte,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262255917446
    4-20262440918257
    3-20262047115714
    2-20262039914162
    • 42105, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S611HF,  Frazier, npd, 
    • 41382, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 3B, Squires,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262524219809
    4-20262437421239
    3-20261991315907
    2-20262089815341
    1-20262201993
    • 41381, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 2B, Squires, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262309219014
    4-20262169517192
    3-20261795414299
    2-20261955514290
    1-20262050931
    • 42077, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, K&L Hegstad North W 158-92-3-27-MBHX, Cottonwood, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-2026119357209
    4-202690825107
    3-2026112596660
    2-20264324845
    1-202618940
    • 41538, conf, Devon Energy, Stallion 33-28 6H, Ragged Butte, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261522123605
    4-20262283827811
    3-20263174735703
    2-20262952028595
    1-20261616216983
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