The Movie Page -- September 28, 2021

 From wiki:

Firebird 2015 AD is a 1981 Canadian science fiction film directed by David M. Robertson and starring Darren McGavin and Doug McClure. 

In the year 2015, the US government outlaws the distribution of gasoline to the public, reserving it only for the politicians, the Military and law enforcement. [Need we say more? Again, this movie was released in 1981.]

While it is implied this is due to a fuel shortage, later dialogue rebuffs this stating that gasoline is in abundance. Civilians are also banned from owning or using any form of motor vehicle, and those that do are referred to as Burners, and it is shown that this is a form of rebellion. Burners are monitored and dealt with harshly by the DVC; The Department of Vehicle Control. 

And with that, I'm off the net until tomorrow. 

Notes From All Over -- Whoo-Hoo -- NDIC Back To Reporting Active Rigs -- Nice To See -- September 28, 2021

Afghanistan: Reading excerpts of General Milley's testimony and what the press is reporting about the White House response, close reading suggests that both are telling the truth. Of the two, General Milley seemed quite disingenuous with regard to his testimony. He did not call Resident Biden a liar, but some may interpret his testimony to have done just that. 

Traders, investors: Robinhood traders / investors must be jumping out of windows today. ARKK fell almost five percent, along with almost everything else. Others of interest:

• TSLA: actually did quite well
• F: actually rose a bit
• DVN: increased a bit despite shares in many oil companies actually falling today
• SRE: my favorite stock to follow had an incredibly awful day

Buying opportunity.

Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough cases: there's a video out there that purports to explain why (the only folks experiencing breakthrough cases); I haven't seen it; I don't like to get my news via video. Something to google, perhaps. The CDC addresses breakthrough "cases." The explanation, which I believe has been posted before. I won't post it now; it's commonsense (in fact, it's almost ridiculous to even be discussing it) and I don't want to insult anyone. LOL. Has to do with Statistics 101 and a lot of journalists  ... speaking of which ... here is an example of which we are dealing:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs -- 25 -- from the daily activity report at the end of day.

$74.34	9/28/2021	09/28/2020	09/28/2019	09/28/2018	09/28/2017
Active Rigs	25	11	57	66	58

Active permits:

• CLR (8): Flint Chips FIU; Bice FIU; Pletan; Rolf Federal; Charolais South Federal; LCU Ralph, LCU Reckitt Federal, Clear Creek Federal;
• Hess (4): most interesting -- up to four this quickly; BL-S Ramberg; An-Norby; CA-E Burdick; BL-Olson;
• MRO (2): Woodrow; Delores USA;
• Oasis (2):  Swenson Federal; Soto;
• Petroshale: Crockett Federal;
• Whiting: Fred TTT;
• Hunt: Halliday;
• Kraken: Jenna Le;
• Slawson: Lightning Federal;
• Ovintiv: Bernice;
• Enerplus: FB Leviathan;
• Crescent Point: Reed
• Denbury: CHSU 11-35NHR 15;
  

Two new permits, #38587 - #38588, inclusive:

• Operators: MRO, Enerplus
• Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Antelope (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• MRO has another permit in the prolific Bailey, in lot 1 section 18-146-93; 433 FNL and 571 FWL;
• Enerplus has a permit for a Queen well in NWNW 28-152-94; and 330 FNL and 1313 FWL

Eight permits renewed:

• Enerplus (7): all in section 28-152-94; Shoal, Flatiron Hogback, Fjord, Cirque, Barchan, Arroyo;
• XTO: an Edwards Trust Federal well in section 19-149-97;

Wowza -- September 28, 2021

Back to the Bakken

With the NDIC not updating the GIS map, the scout tickets, or the active rig list it becomes increasingly difficult to keep track of what's going on. Thank goodness for reports from the field from readers. Most recent update, from a reader:

About a mile west of the COP Bartlett wells and the Continental Jack wells, there's a Nabors B rig MIRU on what appears to be a single-well pad with three oil tanks and a production water tank. New construction pad. Just big enough for a rig. I'll try to get a picture next time I drive by. Interesting.

My reply:

If you do get that close, take a picture of the "sign" at the entrance to the pad. I see two pads west of CLR Jack and COP (BR) Bartlett with at least one well confidential but the NDIC map is no longer current. Both of these pads are about the same distance from Jack / Bartlett, but about four miles west, not just a mile west. The CLR pad is to the north; COP (BR) pad is the same distance but to the south.

• Rimrock has a Nabors b rig in Dunn County.
• other operators have a Nabors b rig but not in Dunn County the last time we had NDIC information
• CLR is definitely operating in Dunn County
• I'm not aware that COP (BR) has started drilling again in the Bakken

Later, from another reader, see comments:

The rig west of Killdeer is B1 for Continental Resources (CLR). If you go to the 8/4 /21 daily report there was a single Jack well permitted. Not sure why it is a single well there. 

Coordinates: 47.387619,-102.805378, or lat/long: 47°23'15.4"N 102°48'19.4" W.

From the August 4, 2021, daily activity report, a new permit, no scout ticket, and not yet on the GIS map:

• 38450, conf, CLR, Jack 9-9HSL, Chamney Butte, SESE 8-145-95; 320' FSL and 576' FEL. This is a section unit line well, at least 2560-acre spacing.
  

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Back to Non-Bakken News and Comments

Link here.

• natural gas prices surging around the world;
• Dutch TTF jumped as much as 12 percent to above $100 / MWh, a record high, after a drop in Russian supply;
• US Henry Hub just topped $6 / mmbtu for the first time since 2014
• JKM is above $30 / mmbtu, a seasonal high
• ISO NE: at $70 / MWh; spike to $80;
• see John's comment below
  
• natural gas and nuclear: 87%
• nothing else matters
• had to rely on expensive Canadian hydroelectricity
  

BP:

• it won't be hard to remember the CEO's name: Bernard Looney
• link here.

Unhinged:

• former governor Cuomo: "Some folks thought I was nuts."
• new governor Kathy Hochul: "Here, hold my beer."
• Link here.
• In case the link breaks or the tweet disappears, a graphic is pending.

TV ratings:

• the NFL is back ... and in a big way. Something Breitbart won't be reporting.
• Tony Awards? Not so much. America is so over Hollywood, Broadway.

Beats:

• Apple increases price of Beats Flex headphones
• form $50 to $70;
• I had not seen these before; something to consider; great price at $70

NFL:

• how 'bout them Cowboys;
• Philadelphia Eagles imploded; Stephen A. Smith will go nuts
• what happened to the Seahawks? LOL. The Vikings are back!
• and Tom Brady's Buccaneers -- are you kidding me?
• and, Mahomes and the Chiefs
• the season is getting interesting and it's only the third week

PGA:

• Jackson, MS, this week?
• expect a lot of folks to be resting after the Ryder Cup

Great Barrier Reef Is Dead! Long Live The Great Barrier Reef -- September 28, 2021

It's now being reported that and read this carefully ...  for those with heart problems ... please sit down ... the Great Barrier Reef is back!! The Great Barrier Reef is experiencing "RECORD HIGH" levels of coral coverage. Link here.  Or go direct to SkyNews - Austrialia.

Former JCU Marine Physicist Peter Ridd says the Great Barrier Reef is now experiencing “record high coral cover”.

“This is data that’s been accumulated over a little while now and it shows … it’s actually at record high coral cover,” he told Sky News Australia.

“We’ve got more coral on the Great Barrier Reef now than we did when records began in 1985.

“We’ve got twice as much coral as we had after huge cyclones went through the reef in about 2011 and 2012, and this record-high coral cover is despite supposedly having three catastrophic unprecedented bleaching events in just the last five years. 

"So you've just go to wonder: were those bleaching events maybe as catastrophic as these experts supposedly claimed."

Note: it appears that the coral is accreting around plastic straws. Greta is flying to Australia, as we speak, with a shipment of straws. Greta is now concerned there may be a shortage of plastic straws with the supply chain bottlenecks. Do your part. Visit McDonald's.

Pfizer Announces Pfizermectin, Generic To Be Branded "Secretariat" -- Rumors -- September 28, 2021

Consider the source, but ...

Another piece US anti-Ivermectin puzzle may have emerged. On Monday, Pfizer announced that it's launching an accelerated Phase 2/3 trial for a COVID prophylactic pill designed to ward off COVID in those may have come in contact with the disease.

Coincidentally (or not), Pfizer's drug shares at least one mechanism of action as Ivermectin - an anti-parasitic used in humans for decades, which functions as a protease inhibitor against Covid-19, which researchers speculate "could be the biophysical basis behind its antiviral efficiency."

Lo and behold, Pfizer's new drug - which some have jokingly dubbed "Pfizermectin," is described by the pharmaceutical giant as a "potent protease inhibitor." 

Raise your hand if you didn't see this coming.

The Bakken Is Back -- The Core Is Expanding -- September 28, 2021

The advances in the Bakken came even before recent increase in crude oil prices. Now, the price surge. Wow. 

Re-posting:

The Bakken is back: this should be nothing new to those who have been following the Bakken --

• "leap" in EURs show Bakken's core is growing; link to The Williston Herald;

The Bakken has its own mineral tracker, Joel Brown, who was among the first graduates of North Dakota’s Petroleum Engineering program in 2013. Brown founded Mineral Tracker to help royalty owners, a service that has since been wrapped into First international Bank and Trust in Watford City.

Since creating Mineral Tracker, Brown often hears is that the Bakken is close to being drilled out. But that’s not at all what Brown is seeing in the data.

The real story is much more complex, but it’s by and large story about innovation, and it’s a story about how the Bakken’s producers are defying the odds against them, despite OPEC-induced downturns that might have crushed them.

The core of the Bakken is expanding, Brown said. He sees it most clearly in the estimated ultimate recovery figures for Bakken wells. From 2014 to 2018, estimated ultimate recoveries for Bakken wells have increased nearly 70 percent.

A well drilled in 2013 averaged an EUR of around 240,000 barrels of oil. That had been the average for the 10 years prior, too.

But in 2020, Brown has been seeing much higher EURs. The new average for the state is more like 580,000 barrels. That, in turn, has changed break-evens from what used to be a $70 average to more like $37 per barrel.

In the Ross region, for example, just north of Parshall field, which was one of the first areas in North Dakota that saw prolific Bakken production.

But travel just north of there, and wells typically have not been so productive. That appears to be changing. In 2020, three clearwater wells were drilled and completed with better hydraulic fracturing techniques. Those wells are now projected to have EURs of 750,000 barrels of oil — much higher than the 2020 state average of 580,000.

Assuming costs of completion at $7.5 million, that puts breakevens at $29 per barrel.

Brown sees a similar trend in the Alexandria region in central Divide County.

“It is traditionally one of the poorer performing areas of the Bakken and Three Forks development in the Williston Basin,” Brown said.

But recently, 2019, Hunt Oil did a large-scale completion job with 13 million pounds of sand and 40 to 50 stages for completion. That well’s EUR is projected at 590,000 barrels per day.

“So once again, above our average for the state of North Dakota being drilled in this area where we had written it off to $100 oil,” Brown said. “That 590,000 barrel EUR would correlate to a $36 per barrel breakeven oil price.”

Near the Montana border, Brown highlighted two Gibbons wells that have average EUR of 625,000 barrels of oil, drilled in 2019, and six Missouri wells drilled in 2019 and 2020 with an average EUR of 560,000 barrels. That works out to a breakeven oil price of $36 per barrel.

In the Haystack Butte area, 12 Palmer wells in 2019 were drilled with an EUR of 590,000 barrels, and, in the Dunn County area, there’s even a well that is projected to have 1.6 million barrels of oil over its productive life.

Much more at the link. 

 

The Bakken Is Back -- Breakevens In Some Areas: $29 -- September 28, 2021

WTI: continues to melt up. CNBC says rise is due to hurricane "that swept the gulf disrupted energy supplies across the US." Say what? Nothing said about what was going on in Europe / UK.

The numbers:

• WTI: $76+
• TYT: 1.5%

The Fed:

• wow, look at this -- the two Fed heads leaving are among the most hawkish
• heard on the street: more dovish heads will be appointed
• Steve Liesman appears to blow off the "more dovish" signal but it's pretty obvious
• as long as we brought up the Fed, Jay Powell now says inflation will (likely?) last longer than expected

Automakers: automakers temporarily shut down more facilities. Link here.

• Stellantis: four of its plants will close the week of September 27, 2021 (that would be this week);
• Detroit; Illinois; Brampton, Ontario; and, Saltillo, Mexico
• Ford: will cut production at its SUV plant in Oakville, Ontario this week (week of September 27, 2021)

Ford: that deal looks pretty good. Link here. Will add an electric F-150 plant; add three battery factories.

Tea leaves: Administration increasingly nervous that the courts have not yet struck down his executive order mandating the vaccine. 

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Back to the Bakken

The Bakken is back: this should be nothing new to those who have been following the Bakken --

• "leap" in EURs show Bakken's core is growing; link to The Williston Herald;

The Bakken has its own mineral tracker, Joel Brown, who was among the first graduates of North Dakota’s Petroleum Engineering program in 2013. Brown founded Mineral Tracker to help royalty owners, a service that has since been wrapped into First international Bank and Trust in Watford City.

Since creating Mineral Tracker, Brown often hears is that the Bakken is close to being drilled out. But that’s not at all what Brown is seeing in the data.

The real story is much more complex, but it’s by and large story about innovation, and it’s a story about how the Bakken’s producers are defying the odds against them, despite OPEC-induced downturns that might have crushed them.

The core of the Bakken is expanding, Brown said. He sees it most clearly in the estimated ultimate recovery figures for Bakken wells. From 2014 to 2018, estimated ultimate recoveries for Bakken wells have increased nearly 70 percent.

A well drilled in 2013 averaged an EUR of around 240,000 barrels of oil. That had been the average for the 10 years prior, too.

But in 2020, Brown has been seeing much higher EURs. The new average for the state is more like 580,000 barrels. That, in turn, has changed break-evens from what used to be a $70 average to more like $37 per barrel.

More here.

Grayson Mill:

• first rig scheduled for November, 2021; link here;
• a real company. LOL. Has 150 employees; Eighty-five work in the field

Active rigs, best guess*, NDIC no longer reports this information:

$76.17	9/28/2021	09/28/2020	09/28/2019	09/28/2018	09/28/2017
Active Rigs	26*	11	57	66	58

No wells coming off confidential list according to the NDIC which has quit updating scout tickets, production.

RBN Energy: rising LNG exports hitch US gas to soaring TTF, JKM prices, part 2. Archived.

The U.S. natural gas market’s exposure to global gas and LNG markets has come into sharp focus in recent days. A gas supply crunch in Europe and scant LNG cargoes have roiled the international markets and kicked competition into overdrive. European natural gas and Asian LNG prices are at record highs and locked in a race to the top. The U.S. gas market has been relatively buffered from the full extent of the panic-driven premiums enveloping European and Asian markets, constrained primarily by its limited ability to help meet international demand. In other words, the U.S.’s LNG export capacity ceiling is likely the only thing reining in Henry Hub prices from following European and Asian gas/LNG prices to the moon. As explosive as Henry Hub futures are these days, if not for the capacity constraint, they would be much higher. That ceiling is about to get a little higher, however, as two liquefaction projects — Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Train 6 and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass — get ready to export LNG from U.S. shores this winter, amid what’s already the most bullish Lower 48 gas market in years. In today’s RBN blog, we detail the timing and demand implications of these two projects.