The Top Energy Story This Past Week -- Is Anyone Paying Attention? August 28, 2022

Top energy story: 

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 19, 2022, showed that despite a record withdrawal of crude from the SPR, a drop in our oil exports, and a decrease in​ our​ refining, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 6 weeks, and for the 23rd time in the past 39 weeks, in part due to a big decrease in oil supplies that could not be accounted for.

Focus on fracking: weekly installment.The lede:

• natural gas touches $10;
• US oil supplies at a 19-year low;
• SPR at a 37.5-year low after a record withdrawal.

Weekly Installment Of Focus On Fracking -- August 28, 2022

Focus on fracking: weekly installment.The lede:

• natural gas touches $10;
• US oil supplies at a 19-year low;
• SPR at a 37.5-year low after a record withdrawal.

The latest US oil supply and disposition data from the EIA:

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 19, 2022, showed that despite a record withdrawal of crude from the SPR, a drop in our oil exports, and a decrease in​ our​ refining, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 6 weeks, and for the 23rd time in the past 39 weeks, in part due to a big decrease in oil supplies that could not be accounted for.

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,255,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 19, 2022, an average of 168,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 1,625,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US. 

So, based on that reported and estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending August 19, 2022 appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from oilfield production, and from storage was 636,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. 

To account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+636,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil,” thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error.

Public Service Announcements: Gift Wrapping And Removing Creases On Shoes -- August 28, 2022

Link here.

Link here.

It's An Open-Book Test -- August 28, 2022

Reminder:

• Denbury is looking at sale, merger.
• CLR is in the carbon-capture and delivery cat-bird seat in the Bakken.

Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Europe Will Learn This Lesson In Spades -- As My Dad Used To Say -- August 28, 2022

Link here.

New England may learn the same lesson this winter.

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More

Link here.

The Art Page -- The Phillips Collection -- Washington, DC -- August 28, 2022

Link here.

I would have to say, one of the most pleasant ways I can spend an afternoon is an afternoon with my wife in a fine arts museum.

The above painting is reproduced on page 137 in the catalogue below -- which I purchased from Amazon during the year of the plague when it was difficult to visit art museums. 

Favorite Tweet Of The Day -- August 28, 2022

Speaks volumes about humanity.

Without Comment -- August 28, 2022

Link here.

And, link here.

Looking Forward To An Awesome Week -- August 28, 2022

PGA golf tournament: watching the re-airing of the tournament -- wow, Rory was good. And such a gentleman in all his interviews. And actually says something. 

Focus on fracking: weekly installment.

Sticking to my 50-30-20 allocation plan: link here.

Mobile: link here.

Lookin' good.

US companies ranked by free cash flow: link here.

Buffett wisdom. Link here. 

Can you imagine the state of the US economy without the Fed? Without Jay Powell?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

What A Great Sunday Night -- August 28, 2022

Updates

Later, 12:50 a.m. CT, the next morning, Monday: "streaming" is absolutely amazing. Not only am I able to watch the fourth round of the PGA tournament again but I am able to back it up whenever I want -- and how far back I want to back it up -- to replay any part of the fourth round of the tournament. It's very obvious why "streaming" has now outpaced "cable." It's just a matter of time before "network" is history. Already, today, there are reports that NBC might cut as much as 33% of its network prime-time lineup.

Later, 10:05 p.m. CT: wow, wow, wow --- again. I saw the first half of the final round of the PGA golf tournament earlier today but then went swimming with Sophia and missed the best part. 

But now, thanks to "streaming," see below -- I can watch the entire round again, for free, on the "Golf Channel" at no extra cost with subscription to Hulu. 

This will be awesome.  The Scheffler shuffle.

Original Post 

Wow, wow, wow.

What a great weekend -- better said, Sunday -- for the Roman circus.

First, we had the weather-delayed Dayton Coca-Cola 400 or whatever they've renamed it. Austin Dillon wins, as he should have. Yes, there's a story there.

Then, perhaps the most thrilling PGA golf tournament in some time -- and Rory McIlroy won, as he should have.

And now, back-to-back, on TCM, two Hitchcock classics, "North By Northwest" and  then "Suspicion." 

And if not interested in the latter, something lighter, "Houseboat."

Later, tonight, the latest installment of "Focus on Fracking." 

And, a group of flight attendants are hosting / holding a pool party this evening in our apartment complex.

My wife it out of town for a month.

What a great country. 

*****************************
Speaking of Television

Did you all hear that NBC may cut 33% of its prime time lineup? Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2022/08/28/biden-recession-nbc-may-cut-33-of-primetime-programming-to-save-money/. 

I had to look. Google NBC lineup tonight:

• "America's Got Talent"
• "Local News"

I think one can link the NBC announcement to cut programming with the Jay Powell "pain" speech. CEOs are starting to get religion.

A couple of data points.

Streaming is now "bigger" than "cable television.

I can't name any of the NBC "prime time" lineup.

I am aware of the NBC news division but never watch NBC news; and except for sports, never watch network television. I doubt I am alone.

Unemployment And Jay Powell's "Pain" Speech -- August 28, 2022

Stagflation:

• high inflation
• slow growth
• high unemployment

The current unemployment numbers fascinate me. 

Pundits tell us that U-3 is irrelevant; we need to be following U-6.

Pundits tells us labor force participation is a concern.

Pundits tells us jobless numbers is/are a lagging indicator.

Pundits tell us a lot of things.

Pundits have a way of shaping our thinking, making us lazy.

Whatever. 

Link here.

The internet has made it so easy to look at the numbers ourselves and do some of our own thinking without pundits filtering the data.

Now, on top of all that, Jay Powell's "pain" speech, Jackson Hole, August 26, adds another dimension.

He spoke for only eight and a half minutes. Pundits came away with a number of highlights.

One highlight from Mr Powell: "pain" for households."

A lot of moms dropped out of the workforce during the year of the plague for any number of reasons. 

This chart below blows me away.

Look at U-1: 

• Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force: 1%.

The full chart:

Much could be said, but I will leave it at this: Jay Powell said US households are going to feel some pain. With U-1 at 1%, he has a lot of room to work.

MRO Hit A Bull's Eye -- August 26, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

One of several wells on this pad:

• 37777, drl/A, MRO, Bulls Eye USA 41-6TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 319K 6/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	8105	8168	8340	23742	22786	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	10009	9904	10140	25133	23863	133
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	9624	9627	10302	21933	18955	1900
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	12526	12492	12420	34329	32929	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	14903	15004	13556	40551	38918	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	20366	20273	17272	52041	49892	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	28289	28124	19762	59662	57332	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	36119	36323	26565	56626	53777	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	35332	35160	33918	46838	44068	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	26	65731	65988	45266	78881	74045	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	25	78342	77794	64913	86760	81604	593
BAKKEN	7-2021	2	0	0	98	0	0	0

The parent well:

• 17502, 637, MRO, Mark Sandstrom 14-32H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 567K 4/21; huge jump in production back in August, 2014; cum 578K 6/22; 
  

After a huge jump in August, 2014, another small jump in 2020:

BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1730	1744	605	5435	5084	66
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1504	1476	552	3690	2407	1034
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	986	940	409	3680	3085	346
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2402	2386	926	9583	9246	10
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	4056	4054	1427	11203	10537	256
BAKKEN	10-2020	25	2636	2629	893	6367	6050	47
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	3499	3397	1207	6425	6045	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	27	2966	2839	1418	6641	3340	2973
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	2	11	207	0	43	0	42
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	5	217	248	68	595	554	3
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	1812	1737	652	4139	3746	113
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	1613	1588	579	3874	3359	231

For EV Batteries: The Graphite Story Gets Tedious -- August 28, 2022

Link here.

There won't be a shortage of graphite and it won't be expensive.

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard.  
  
• graphite

A Whiting Cvancara Well With Jump In Production -- Drilled Ten Years Ago -- August 28, 2022

The well:

• 22883, 509, Whiting, Cvancara 21-14TFH, t11/12; cum 145K 6/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	3317	3270	4012	2015	1826	129
BAKKEN	5-2022	19	1218	1231	3162	964	913	13
BAKKEN	4-2022	19	1925	1975	4148	1553	1242	277
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	5039	5312	11283	4926	3719	1145
BAKKEN	2-2022	18	4405	4048	3503	3655	3619	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	12	197	245	292	188	188	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	518	525	675	509	509	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	629	605	796	612	550	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	514	518	642	458	402	0

See first comment. My reply is brought up here for easier browsing / search:

1. This was not a "long period of no production." This is about standard -- perhaps a bit longer than usual -- for a Bakken well to be taken off line when a neighboring pad of wells are being fracked. A pad of wells being fracked may be as many as eight, and that takes a bit of time to get that work done before the older, neighboring well(s) can be placed back on line.

2. A long period of no production in the Bakken is at least one year.

3. Experts opine that a well that is taken off line for two years or more is at (high) risk of being lost for good. This is not true in the Bakken. I see many wells that have been off line for two years, and come back fine. In fact, knowing the peculiarities of shale, one almost expects production to come back better than not when off line for more than two years.

4. As far as production goes after being off line, many categories:

4a. I seldom see a loss of production after a well comes back on line, but it can happen.

4b. Most wells return to about the same production that they were before they went off line: no decrease, no increase.

4c. A well that jumps from 500 bbls/month to less than 4,000 bbls/month is a reflection of other fracking in the area and is NOT indicative that the well was re-fracked.

4d. A well that jumps from 500 bbls/month to 5,000 to 12,000 bbls/month is more difficult to sort out. It is still likely not due to a re-frack but due to fracking activity in the area. But some re-fracks result in new production of 8,000 to 12,000 bbls/month.

4e. A re-frack -- a successful re-frack -- needs to show a production jump to 20,000 bbls/month or more.

5. Some operators and some fields seem much more likely to report older wells with huge jump in production after neighboring wells are fracked. One of the most successful operators when it comes to a huge jump in production in an old well affected by newly fracked neighboring wells is MRO. The field that seems one of the best by far is the Bailey oil field, and also the Reunion oil field. In both cases, they are often MRO wells.

6. There are so many examples of this phenomenon, I no longer track these wells at the blog site where I used to track them. It would simply take too much time; now I simply "tag" them.

7. As a rule, when I see a jump in production in an older well that has recently come back on line, I no longer check the file reports to see if it was re-fracked. Based on the parameters set above, I can generally guess what the story was. In addition, as a rule, I no longer care why a well's production jumped. I understand what's going on -- right, wrong, indifferent -- and the subject no longer interests me.

7a. In addition, with feedback from small mom-and-pop mineral owners, they don't care either why there was a jump in production. They just love the larger royalty check.

8. In a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 28, 2022

The wells:

• 38006, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2022	13644	29834
5-2022	12841	24726
4-2022	6583	7727
3-2022	25158	1792

• 37371, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-1HS, East Tioga, no production data, 
• 37372, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-1HS, East Tioga, no production data, 
• 35443, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23TFH, Alger,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2022	17444	13619
5-2022	17864	19431
4-2022	18108	16448
3-2022	13278	12657

• 36643, conf, Hess, BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-4, Beaver Lodge,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2022	23067	59226
5-2022	19152	34256
4-2022	20040	29491
3-2022	42794	49453

• 37339, conf, Whiting, Ark 21-15-2H, Dollar Joe,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2022	15623	47500
5-2022	21033	54019
4-2022	7745	18187
3-2022	30699	69225

• 35444, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23HU, Alger,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2022	13160	24299
5-2022	21610	26266
4-2022	22148	15938
3-2022	24295	19437

• 37338, conf, Whiting, ARK 21-15H, Dollar Joe,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2022	16200	59431
5-2022	17768	49263
4-2022	6625	16295
3-2022	29836	70501

• 37696, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 5-1-17TFH, North Fork, no production data, 
• 38367, conf, CLR, Fuller 3-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
  

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 28, 2022

Wednesday, September 7, 2022: 8 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 3957for the year
38006, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5,
37371, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-1HS,

Tuesday, September 6, 2022: 6 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 395 for the year
37372, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-1HS,

Monday, September 5, 2022: 5 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 394 for the year
35443, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23TFH,

Sunday, September 4, 2022: 4 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 393 for the year
36643, conf, Hess, BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-4,

Saturday, September 3, 2022: 3 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 392 for the year
37339, conf, Whiting, Ark 21-15-2H,
35444, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23HU,

Friday, September 2, 2022: 1 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 390 for the year
37338, conf, Whiting, ARK 21-15H,

Thursday, September 1, 2022: 0 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 389 for the year
None.

Wednesday, August 31, 2022: 19 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 389 for the year
 None.

Tuesday, August 30, 2022: 19 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 389 for the year
None.

Monday, August 29, 2022: 19 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 389 for the year
None.

Sunday, August 28, 2022: 19 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 389 for the year
None.

Saturday, August 27, 2022: 19 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 389 for the year
37696, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 5-1-17TFH,

Friday, August 26, 2022: 18 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 388 for the year
38367, conf, CLR, Fuller 3-2H,

The Murex' Angie Marie Well In Beaver Lodge Just Went Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- August 28, 2022

This well was a "well of interest" at this post.

The well:

• 16186, 439, Murex, Angie Marie 13-24H, Beaver Lodge, t7/06; cum 447K 10/18; cum 504K 6/22;
  

Recent production unremarkable:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	1325	1655	614	2637	2247	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	1613	1129	737	2703	2313	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	11	383	539	325	926	783	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1386	1476	714	3042	2639	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	26	1261	1271	647	3148	2810	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	24	1278	1684	647	3261	2949	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1396	740	1007	2773	2383	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1443	1460	1206	2656	1684	582
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1471	1463	1620	2564	2161	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	17	529	478	1229	802	620	0