Argentina: Best Candidate for Next Shale Boom? -- Rigzone -- January 26, 2015

From Rigzone, a look at shale's future worldwide. This long article will be archived.

North Dakota Rig Count Of Interest To Reuters Analyst -- January 26, 2015

From Reuters:

The decline in oil drilling that has occurred so far across the United States is probably enough to ensure U.S. production peaks by April or May, though that might not be evident until June or July given delays in publishing production records.

If the number of active rigs continues to decline in the next few weeks, which seems likely, it is reasonably likely U.S. oil production will be falling by June or July 2015.

In North Dakota, the number of rigs drilling for oil has fallen by almost a quarter in less than four months, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes. Baker Hughes puts the number of active drilling rigs in the state at just 147 last week, down from 189 at the beginning of October, and the lowest number since December 2010.

Baker Hughes counts rigs as active only when they are actually drilling – from the time the rig breaks ground and the well is spudded to the time the rig reaches target depth.

Meanwhile, things are not looking too good for the Russians. Also from Rigzone:

Russia's proven hydrocarbon reserves will increase much less than previously expected in 2015, the Russian Environment Ministry said on Monday, as lower oil prices and Western sanctions discourage exploration efforts. The ministry said it expected proven reserves to grow by around 500 million tones of oil and 650 billion cubic metres of gas this year, having previously seen growth of more than 750 million tonnes and 1.5 trillion cubic metres a year, respectively, between 2015 and 2020.

It's going to be a different world in 2020.

Permits Canceled After Slump In Prices; Producers Abandoned -- November, 2014 -- December, 2015

It's possible that today's NDIC daily active report was a one-off, but I wouldn't bet on it. I have never seen such a long list of canceled permits in one daily active report (yes, it's a 3-day report -- Saturday, Sunday, Monday -- but canceled permits would not occur over the weekend, just on normal business days). One or two canceled permits every couple of weeks was the norm back in 2013, and 2014, before October.

Note the dates the permits were canceled.

This page is linked at the sidebar at the right and canceled permits will be tracked here.

PERMITS CANCELED

September 2, 2015: EOG temporarily abandons four fairly recent wells in Parshall oil field (#27391, #28401, #28726, #28727, and @28728), Mountrail County.

May 7, 2015:

Oasis puts four wells on temporary abandon list: 29741 - 29745, State 5792 wells in Cottonwood oild field, Mountrail County. I assume the wording is similar for all four wells: the well was previously drilled to 2,208 feet. Oasis is currently evaluating the well given current economics and plans to finish drilling it in the future."

February 10, 2015: link here; Whiting cancels six (6) KOG Smokey wells in Pembroke oilfield. 

January 26, 2015
18582, PNC, BR, Pacific Express 41-25H, Corral Creek, date PNC 12/10/14;
19120, PNC, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 2-4H, Lost Bridge, date PNC 12/10/14;
19121, PNC, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 13-9H, Lost Bridge, date PNC 12/10/14;
21972, PNC, Fram Operating, Goettle 1, wildcat, date PNC 12/11/14;
22209, PNC, Petro-Hunt, Fritz 142-100-22C-23-1H, date PNC 12/11/14;
24243, PNC, Statoil, Enderud 9-4 3TFH, Banks, date PNC 12/11/14;
24586, PNC, Thunderbird Resources, Charlie State 21-16-1H, Charlie Bob, date PNC 12/11/14;
24596, PNC, Bonneville 3625-1TFH, West Ambrose, date PNC 12/11/14;
26162, PNC, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Sivertson 16-16-1H, a Spearfish well, wildcat, date PNC 12/11/14;
27008, PNC, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, date PNC 1/16/15;
27009, PNC, Slawson, Phazor 4-1-12H, Bully, date PNC 1/26/15;

PRODUCERS ABANDONED

January 26, 2015

• 15806, 42, BR, Federal Amy 14-8H, Mondak, a Bakken well, t10/05; cum 27K 11/14; last production 9/12;
• 19597, 1,052, Newfield, Obenour 150-99-28-33-1H, South Tobacco Garden, 25 stages; 2.6 million lbs , t3/12; cum 89K 11/14; last production 9/13;

 

Eight (8) New Permits -- North Dakota -- January 26, 2015

Active rigs:

	1/26/2015	01/26/2014	01/26/2013	01/26/2012	01/26/2011
Active Rigs	156	187	190	203	163

 
Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 27116, 845, EOG, Parshall 54-1014H, Parshall, t7/14; cum 40K 11/14;
• 27205, 1,205, EOG, Parshall 52-1114H, Parshall, t7/14; cum 57K 11/14;
• 27943, 341, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-9TFH, Elk, t8/14; cum 42K 11/14;
• 27944, 678, Triangle, Eckert Foudnation 152-102-22-15-3H, Elk, t8/14; cum 55K 11/14;
• 28591, drl, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 1H, Long Creek, no production data,
• 28614, drl, Samson Resources, Coronet 2413-8H, Ambrose, no production data,
• 28900, drl, Mountain Divide, BJNJ 19-18N-1H, Big Dipper, no production data,

Eight (8) new permits:

• Operators: Whiting (3), Statoil (2), Samson Resources (2), Petro-Hunt,
• Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), Stony Creek (Williams), Cow Creek (Williams), Blooming Prairie (Divide), Charlson (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Four (4) producing wells completed: 

• 27837, 1,679, MRO, Bears Ghost USA 21-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, t1/15; cum --
• 27839, 1,634, MRO, Bears Ghose USA 11-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, t12/14; cum --
• 28282, 677, Hess, BW-Hedstrom-149-100-1210H-2, Ellsworth, t11/14; cum 21K 11/14;
• 28358, 1,816, MRO, Reidun 21-27TFH, Bailey, t12/14; cum --

Producers abandoned:

• 14706, 42/12; MBI, Dodge 34-24HR, Dimmick Lake, an old Duperow/Madison well; t1998/t2000; cum 53K 11/14; no production since 2012;
• 15806, 42, BR, Federal Amy 14-8H, Mondak, a Bakken well, t10/05; cum 27K 11/14; last production 9/12;
• 19597, 1,052, Newfield, Obenour 150-99-28-33-1H, South Tobacco Garden, 25 stages; 2.6 million lbs , t3/12; cum 89K 11/14; last production 9/13;

Permits canceled:

• Slawson, two: #27009, #27008: Phazor and Thor, McKenzie County
• Oasis, two: #27217, #27218: Loren in Williams County

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 27944, see above, Triangle, Eckert Foudnation 152-102-22-15-3H, Elk, a nice well, unusual production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2014	12365	0
10-2014	8484	0
9-2014	5414	0
8-2014	24364	0
7-2014	3644	0

28174, see above, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-2H, Elk, producing, a nice well, look at the production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2014	336	20
10-2014	9136	5327
9-2014	16225	14501
8-2014	3506	3019

28175, see below, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-1H, Elk, a huge well, interesting production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2014	13477	8573
10-2014	7133	2997
9-2014	19922	12944
8-2014	4525	3118

Richard Zeits On The Accelerating Crude Oil Supply -- Seeking Alpha -- January 26, 2015

Richard Zeits is making the same observation the RBN Energy has been make for some time now.

Link at SeekingAlpha, the summary:

• The supply/demand imbalance in the oil market deteriorated in the past seven weeks.
• In the U.S. alone, the total oversupply increased by over 1.1 million barrels per day, judging by inventory data.
• Spare storage capacity in the U.S. is quickly shrinking, and the short-term contango is widening.
• Such dynamics would hardly be possible without proactive supply increases by key global exporters.
• At the current pace, a true "oil glut" may arrive in just a few months. 

These articles are often archived for subscribers only.

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Do A Google Search To Confirm

Regular readers know the fun I have with Patrick Kennedy (or whichever Kennedy it was) who said that due to global warming, the Kennedy children (and your children) would never see snow again. I can't make that up. He didn't say your great-great-great-great grandchildren, but your children.

My children and grandchildren have seen a lot of snow since that comment was made.

If the Kennedys have missed the snow, they will get another chance this week. 

Why Apple Has A Fingerprint Sensor On Its Phone And Google Doesn't -- January 26, 2015

Flashback: End Of Snow -- New York Times, Last February (2014)

The New York Times reported back in February, 2014:

The planet has warmed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1800s, and as a result, snow is melting. In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere.

Europe has lost half of its Alpine glacial ice since the 1850s, and if climate change is not reined in, two-thirds of European ski resorts will be likely to close by 2100.

The same could happen in the United States, where in the Northeast, more than half of the 103 ski resorts may no longer be viable in 30 years because of warmer winters. As far for the Western part of the country, it will lose an estimated 25 to 100 percent of its snowpack by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed — reducing the snowpack in Park City, Utah, to zero and relegating skiing to the top quarter of Ajax Mountain in Aspen.

The facts are straightforward: The planet is getting hotter. Snow melts above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. The Alps are warming two to three times faster than the worldwide average, possibly because of global circulation patterns.

Since 1970, the rate of winter warming per decade in the United States has been triple the rate of the previous 75 years, with the strongest trends in the Northern regions of the country. Nine of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, and this winter is already looking to be one of the driest on record — with California at just 12 percent of its average snowpack in January, and the Pacific Northwest at around 50 percent. 

The facts are: warming stopped 19 years ago. 

 

I wonder how many readers were aware of that: that snow melts above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. 

California has had a much wetter winter this year, by the way. 

As for skiing in Aspen, Colorado? Our granddaughters had a great ski trip in December to the Aspen area. 

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Wind Energy

 

For all its talk about renewable energy and wind energy, Germany has less wind energy capacity than that other economic European powerhouse, Spain. LOL.  Wind capacity, 2013, in million MWh:

• US: 168
• China: 136
• Spain: 56
• Germany: 52
  

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iPhone Fingerpoint Sensor

Why Apple's iPhone has a fingerprint sensor and Google's Motorola's Nexus 6 does not. Business Insider is reporting:

If you've ever used the Nexus 6, you might notice the subtle dimple on the back of the phone where the Motorola logo is located.

That indent was originally supposed to house a fingerprint sensor, but an Apple acquisition changed those plans.

Apple bought Authentec, a company that makes fingerprint sensors, for $356 million in 2012.

Motorola CEO Dennis Woodside recently told The Telegraph (via The Verge) that he believed Authentec made the best fingerprint sensors in the industry, and he wasn't willing to settle for the second best for the Nexus 6.

"The secret behind that is that it was supposed to be fingerprint recognition, and Apple bought the best supplier," Woodside told The Telegraph. "So the second best supplier was the only one available to everyone else in the industry and they weren't there yet."

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Recipe: Prime Rib

2 days before cooking: salt all sides of the roast and cover with a colander (allows air to circulate) or 1 layer of paper towels

Preheat oven to 350 degrees

Place on rack and cook for 30 minutes at 350 degrees then reduce heat to 250 degrees

For medium rare, cook approximately 28-30 minutes per pound until meat thermometer registers 131 degrees

Re-cap: 30 minutes at 350; reduce to 250 degrees and then 28 minutes/pound

Remove from oven and lightly tent with foil

Allow to rest approximately 20 minutes before carving

Affected By Slump In Oil Prices? -- January, 2015

I have a separate page for "things to follow up on," but there are so many wells that will have to be re-looked at later. These are the wells that seem "strange" for some reason, and perhaps affected by the slump in oil prices. 

February 10, 2015: link here:

• 27036, see below, EOG, Parshall 41-1509H, Parshall, a big well, but interesting production profile,

February 8, 2015: link here;

• 27441, 446, EOG, Parshall 65-14H, Parshall, t7/14; cum 64K 12/14;

February 4, 2015:

• 27292, 844, EOG, Parshall 62-15H, Parshall, t8/14; cum 60K 12/14;

February 1, 2015 (see this post):

• 25995, 642, Cornerstone, Anderson B-2413-6191, Clayton, t5/14; cum 24K 4/14;
• 26033, 626, Cornerstone, Hinds C-0631-6190, Northeast Foothills, t4/14; cum 26K 4/14;

January 31, 2015:

• 27291, conf, EOG, Parshall 61-15H, Parshall, strange production profile,
• 27437, conf, EOG, Parshall 63-16H, Parshall, strange production profile,
• 27438, conf, EOG, Parshall 64-16H, Parshall, strange production profile, 

January 29, 2015:

• 27752, conf, Petro-Hunt, State of North Dakota 154-99-16A-5H, Stockyard Creek;

January 26, 2015:

• 27944, conf, Triangle, Eckert Foudnation 152-102-22-15-3H, Elk, a nice well, unusual production profile, 
• 28174, conf, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-2H, Elk, producing, a nice well, look at the production profile, 
• 28175, conf, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-1H, Elk, a huge well, interesting production profile,

January 26, 2015:

• 25764, 24 (no typo), Oasis, Hannah Kaydence 5501 12-1T, Cow Creek, 15 total drilling days, no frack data, t7/14; cum 12K 11/14;

January 25, 2015: 28277, conf, Emerald, Lloyd Christmas 4-4-9H, Heart River, producing, a big well, but look at the decline rate coming just after price of oil slumped;

January 24, 2015: check back on Statoil's Melissa wells; these are huge IP wells that all went Inactive the month after they were tested, November, 2014, about the time of the price slump.


January 22, 2015: look at the name changes -- and PA?

• 28567, conf, CLR, Wiley 6 PA (was Wiley 6-25H1)
• 28568, conf, CLR, Wiley 7 PA (was Wiley 7-25H)

January 22, 2015: follow-up later

• 26199, 380, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 2TFH, Springbrook, t12/14; cum --
• 26200, 772, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 3H, Springbrook, t12/14; cum -- 
• 26198, 409, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 1H, Springbrook, t12/14; cum --
• 27500, 245, XTO, Lyla 24X-10F, Lindahl, t11/14; cum -- 

January 22, 2015: were these wells choked back due to slump in oil prices?

• 26448, 58, Newfield, Hovland 150-99-26-35-2H, South Tobacco Garden, t5/14; cum 3K 11/14; -- considered completed; but no evidence this well has been fracked
• 27059, 1,320, BR, Denali 21-4TFH 2NH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 6K 11/14;
• 27061, 2,088, BR, Denali 21-4MBH 3NH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 14K 11/14; 
• 27060, 1,872, BR, Norman 21-4MBH, 2SH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 14K 11/14;
• 21374, 2,263, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 4TFH, Alger, t9/14; cum 6K 11/14;
• 21373, 2,451, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 5H, Alger, t9/14; cum 8K 11/14;
• 21375, 2,516, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 6TFH, Alger, t9/14; cum 8K 11/14;
• 27575, 2,474, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 8H, Alger, t10/14; cum 8K 11/14;
• 27085, 1,560, BR, Norman 34-33TFH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t7/14; cum 14K 11/15;
  
• 27137, 1,872, BR, Denali 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t7/14; cum 5K 11/15;
• 26799, 693, Hess, SC-Tom-153-98-1514H-4, Truax, t9/14; cum 33K 11/14;

January 22, 2015: was this a failed frack; will XTO re-frack it? Or did they choke it back with the slump in oil prices?

• 26864, IA/184, XTO, Ruby State Federal 34X-36E, Grinnell, t9/14; cum 1K 11/14;

January 7, 2015 (see this link and #26216, #16991):

• 20541, 60 (no typo), EOG, Wayzetta 114-0311H, Parshall, Three Forks, 1920 acres, 51 stages; 16 million lbs, t6/14; cum 3K 11/14;

Williston Wire's Top 10 Stories For 2014

Game Changer: Williston's new recreation center.

Ground breaking for Williston's new high school.

Big box breakthrough: construction begins on Menards.

Retail revival: Starboard opens, Sportman's Warehouse to build in Williston.

Investment hotspot: Williston attracts worldwide investors.

Williston's roadways under major remodel.

Mayor Koeser completes 20 years as Williston mayor.

Full time firefighters: voters pass sales tax for public safety.

FBI, USPS increase presence in Williston.

Williston's Economic Development switch: Wenko replaces retiring Rolfstad.

Monday, Monday -- January 26, 2015

Fun to watch the n'easter.  Winds.

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Had Enough?

OPEC secretary general "calls" bottom to market. He must have received a phone call from the New Saudi King HRH Salman. Reuters is reporting. One can only assume the plummeting oil prices "killed" his 90-year-old brother; doesn't want the same thing to happen to him.

Reporting today:

• Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), expectation $1.63; profit flat as coal revenue falls 15%; The railroad reported it earned $511 million, or $1.64 per share, slightly below last year's earnings of $513 million, or $1.64 per share.
• Microsoft (MSFT), expectation 71 cents; revenue: $26.5 billion versus  $26.33 billion expected by analysts. That's up 8% from last year; GAAP EPS: $0.71 versus  $0.71 EPS expected, which is down 9% from a year ago. It's still early, but the stock is down more than 2% on a weak performance by Windows and lower-than-expected sales of software to companies. It was a hard quarter for Windows, as OEM revenue -- the amount of money Microsoft got from selling Windows on new PCs, as opposed to corporations — was down 13% from last year.

• Plum Creek Timber Company (PCL), expectation 34 cents; net income of 39 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring gains, came to 38 cents per share.
  The results surpassed Wall Street expectations.

Active rigs:

	1/26/2015	01/26/2014	01/26/2013	01/26/2012	01/26/2011
Active Rigs	156	187	190	203	163

RBN Energy: pricing, break-even points, part 3.

Cuba to US: Holding out for more money. 

The start of talks on repairing 50 years of broken relations appears to have left President Raul Castro's government focused on winning additional concessions without giving in to U.S. demands for greater freedoms, despite the seeming benefits that warmer ties could have for the country's struggling economy.

Following the highest-level open talks in three decades between the two nations, Cuban officials remained firm in rejecting significant reforms pushed by the United States as part of President Barack Obama's surprise move to re-establish ties and rebuild economic relations with the Communist-led country.

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Only 26%

I would have expected worse. In the Bakken we have already dropped from 185 to 155 = a 16% drop from 185. And it's just begun. Rigzone is reporting:

The U.S. onshore well count will decline by 26 percent, from more than 37,000 in 2014 to an estimated 27,000 in 2015, as the decline in oil prices prompted many operators to cut their 2015 spending plans, according to a recent estimate by Wood Mackenzie.

North American drilling and completion expenditures exceeded $140 billion in 2014, but Wood Mackenzie expects operators to commit less than $90 billion to upstream development over the next 12 months.

“Such sizeable cuts will have serious implications across the oilfield services sector,” said Wood Mackenzie in a statement.

Using its North America Supply Chain Analysis Tool, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that rig day rates will decline by 30 percent, while the rig count will drop from an annual average of nearly 1,800 in 2014 to under 1,300 in 2015. This decline will curtail demand in other services sector markets, including tubulars, drilling services, frac proppant and pressure pumping.

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A Steal

This is old news. I'm finally getting to it. Allete "steals" a wind farm -- pays less than $140,000 MW. Bloomberg is reporting:

Allete Inc. (ALE), a Minnesota energy company, will acquire the first, 108-megawatt phase of an NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) wind farm in Iowa after buying the second phase in January.

Allete’s clean energy unit paid $15 million for the Storm Lake 1 project, the Duluth, Minnesota-based company said today in a statement. Storm Lake 1 was completed in 1999 and is adjacent to its 78-megawatt sister project, both of which have contracts to sell their power for five years.

$15,000,000 / 108 = $139,000/MW. See what wind normally costs here. 

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See disclaimer.

Oasis in Seeking Alpha. Summary:

• Oasis is looking at a $150 million cash deficit in 2015 with $50 per barrel WTI oil.
• Longer term, it should be able to maintain production and reach breakeven cash flow with $66 per barrel WTI oil.
• Liquidity is sufficient to handle lower oil prices for a while.
• However, if Oasis wants to maintain 2015 production levels going forward, it faces a $230 million cash deficit at $50 per barrel WTI oil.
• $90 per barrel WTI oil would result in positive cash flow of $344 million though.