From Social Media Today -- March 9, 2021

Link here. This is quite amazing when you think about it: Saudi exporting only 5.84 million bopd. The Permian oil basin produces around 4.5 million bopd.

And this seems to be "false precision," estimating a global shortage of 380,000 bopd this year and even less, 130,000 bopd in 2022.

And then this.

Link here. 

How can analysts and experts be so far off?

• consensus forecast: a build of 800K;
• actual: a build of almost 13 million bbls

That's API data. We'll see the EIA data tomorrow.

Meanwhile, US oil production jumped 300K bopd to 10.0 million bopd. 

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My New Look

I think these make me look ten years younger. LOL.

Photo by Sophia:

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A Musical Interlude
Ed Bruce
  

Ed Bruce:

• December 29, 1939 -- January 8, 2021 (just a couple of months ago)
• wrote Mammas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Cowboys
• mostly wrote commercial jingles
• Thirty-nine And Holding
• Jerry Lee Lewis also recorded a Thirty-nine And Holding, but a completely different song

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Liberace 

This is from 1955. 

I saw Liberace live on stage in Las Vegas in 1977 (or thereabouts). He did this exact act -- same jokes -- identical to that in this clip. Imagine, doing this twice a night for twenty-five years.

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I Came For The Dancing, Stayed For The Music

Hot Wheels Sophia -- March 9, 2021

Coolest thing since sliced bread: day rates at southern California pools. Link at LA Times. No matter how you slice it, this is really, really cool:

L.A. is chock-full of phenomenal pools, spectacular spas and supercool five-star hotels just waiting for us to explore. Now there’s a way to do that without spending $500 a night.

It’s called a day pass. For as little as $20, you receive access to pools and other hotel amenities. Spend a day lounging beside a posh pool, drinking margaritas and nibbling on fish tacos while palm trees sway overhead. Then return home — all without paying a room charge.

Some of the most popular day-pass bargains can be found at rooftop pools that overlook Los Angeles, with spectacular views from the Hollywood Hills to the Pacific Ocean. You can grab a lounge chair and while away the day by yourself or visit with friends and splurge on a cabana, which may set you back $300.

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Hot Wheels

CLR With Three More Permits In The Long Creek Unit; Four DUCs Reported Completed; Seventeen Permits Renewed -- March 9, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.01	3/9/2021	03/09/2020	03/09/2019	03/09/2018	03/09/2017
Active Rigs	15	55	67	59	43

Four new permits, #32801 - #38204, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (3); Whiting
• Fields: Long Creek (Williams); Sanish (Mountrail) -- this is the first new permit in the Sanish in calendar year 2021, so far;
  
• Comments:
• Whiting has a permit for one more well in the Sanish, 
• 38204, conf, Whiting, section NWNW 13-154-92, 245 FNL 370 FWL;
• CLR has permits for three more wells in the huge Long Creek Unit;
• 38201, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 4-28H, Long Creek, NENW 28-153-99; 666 FNL 1853 FWL
• 38202, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 3-28H1, Long Creek, NENW 28-153-99; 625 FNL 1872 FWL
• 38203, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 2-28H, Long Creek, NENW 28-153-99, 584 FNL 1891 FWL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36238, drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data;
• 37160, drl/A, Slawson, Motune Federal 1-10-15H, Big Bend, no production data,
• 33624, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 7-1-12TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 36005, loc/A, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing, no production data

Seventeen permits renewed:

• Liberty Resources Management Company (7): four Albertson permits in Mountrail County; one each, Herseth permit, a Holmen permit, and a Blomquist permit, all three in Burke County
• Crescent Point Energy (6): six CPEUSC Reed permits, all in Williams County;
• CLR (2): two Gordon Federal permits in Dunn County;
• Resource Energy Can-Am, a Shorty permit in Divide County;
• Enerplus: a Cutthroat permit in Dunn County;

"Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" -- CLR With Three More Long Creek Unit Permits -- March 9, 2021

CLR's Long Creek Unit is tracked here. 

To what is already there, add these:

• 38201, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 4-28H, Long Creek, NENW 28-153-99; 666 FNL 1853 FWL
• 38202, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 3-28H1, Long Creek, NENW 28-153-99; 625 FNL 1872 FWL
• 38203, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 2-28H, Long Creek, NENW 28-153-99, 584 FNL 1891 FWL

From April 14, 2021:

Now, March 9, 2021, ten more wells:

• add a 1x7 well pad;
• add a 1x3 well pad.

Morning Notes -- March 9, 2021

For the archives; not recommendations. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

First things first:

Selected tickers:

• TSLA up over 13%.
• AAPL up 4%.
• UNP: up another 0.9%.
• CVX: flat, slightly negative.
• COP: flat, slightly positive.
  
• EPD: up 1.25%.
• SRE: up 1%.
  

For investors Only -- The Noon Hour -- March 9, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

This is posted for the archives, not as recommendations. 

Energy dividends: three oil stocks rewarding higher dividend yields than the S&P 500 -- Zacks:

• oil is at the pre-pandemic mark;
• meme: oil was actually in negative territory in April, 2020;
• price of oil jumped to record levels in more than a year after OPEC+ extended production cuts for at least one more month;
• recently announced dividend hikes:
• Pioneer Natural Resources Company,
• EOG Resources, Inc
• On Zacks buy list:
• EOG
• Diamondback Energy:
• ConocoPhillips

Two out of three ain't bad.

Graph Of The Week -- March 9, 2021

The graphic:

Week ending (?) -- not sure if "week of" or "week ending":

• A: July 12, 2020 -- four months into the global lockdown.
  
• B: November 15, 2020 -- just after Biden elected president.
  

• 1: February 7, 2021 -- week before the Deep Freeze; affected entire US.
  
• 2: February 14, 2021 -- lowest temperatures hit February 15; Texas lost power.
  
• 3: February 21, 2021 -- one week after the freeze.
  
• 4:  February 28, 2021 -- two weeks after the freeze.

I've always maintained -- and have posted it often on the blog -- that if I had but one metric to follow the economic well-being of the US, it would be "gasoline demand." 

March 2, 2021: Texas and Mississippi governors announcing lifting of restrictions. "Back to normal" by March 10, 2021, was the goal. 

Observations:

• gasoline demand fairly stable from point A to point 1;
• subtle peak in gasoline demand at time of presidential election;
• once results known, gasoline demand drops, but, of course, that was during the winter months;
• point 1: unremarkable
• point 2: nationwide freeze 
• point 3: one week later -- look how fast gasoline demand recovered;
• demand is higher than anything seen in previous eight months;
• and yet, no change in lockdown restrictions -- I've not seen anyone talk why this occurred;
• point 4: gasoline demand surges
• only two weeks after the nationwide freeze
• lifting of lockdown restrictions had not even been announced yet
  

So, not even two weeks post-Deep Freeze and no lifting of pandemic restrictions and gasoline demand surges.

OECD now doubling their GDP forecast for the US this year from their November, 2020, forecast, to their most recent forecast.

Posted at the time of the Deep Freeze:

• this would all be forgotten in two weeks (not to be taken out of context)
• things would be back to normal within two months;

Patrick De Haan (above) predicts "we" will consistently hit gasoline demand of nine million bbls per day this coming summer. The tea leaves suggest 9.5+ million could be very, very possible, if not likely.

As a reminder, from last week:

Everything Points To Huge Crude Oil Demand -- March 9, 2021

Re-posting, link here. 

Another ridiculous article coming out of Paris. I would have expected this article in The Economist, not The Wall Street Journal. 

So, Paris is going to blame any failure of emerging markets on the US. So, what's new? Except, as noted, that's an article for The Economist, not The WSJ.

First, the two graphics:

But let's ignore that craziness of the Paris folks and concentrate on data:

• the rise in US government bond yields in response to higher growth and inflation expectations could spark capital fight from emerging economies (well, duh);
• Paris now expects the world economy to reach pre-pandemic levels of output by the middle of this year, six months earlier than it expected when it last published updated forecasts, last November, 2020
• repeat: Paris now expects the world economy to reach pre-pandemic levels of output by the middle of this year, six months earlier than it expected when it last published updated forecasts, last November, 2020
• Paris now sees global output increasing by 5.6% in 2021; previously the forecast goal was only 4.2%;
• for the record, global output declined 3.4% in 2020;
• the main reason for the upgrade is a stronger outlook for the US economy, which it now sees expanding by 6.5%, more than twice the pace it forecast in November and the fastest expansion since 1984;
• Paris now predicts the US economy will be larger at the end of 2022 than it had expected before the pandemic struck;
• among the other Group of 20 countries:
• only Turkey is seen being in a similar position;
• India is expected to see the largest shortfall, with GDP more than 8% down on where it was expected to be before Covid-19 began to spread;
• Paris notes:
• the slow pace of vaccination in Europe precludes any need for fiscal stimulation; even if citizens got the $1400 check they wouldn't spend it; they are still locked down and living in fear
• the obvious question: why is vaccination in socialist EU so slow where everything is centrally planned vs incredible experience in the free market atmosphere of the US where things are de-centralized among fifty states?

Sixteen Active Rigs; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 9, 2021

TSLA: up over 11% in early morning trading! FOMO, YOLO. LOL. EIEIO. 

US shale: no "roaring USA shale industry to respond to OPEC+ -- Rigzone. 

European whining: Paris says US growth surge could unbalance fragile global economy. LOL. Stand-along post later. Link here. But look at this:

• OECD doubles its growth forecast for world's largest economy; warns that surge could suck capital away from faltering emerging markets. Say what?

Saudi Aramco: dividend -- safe with recent oil rally. Was it ever in doubt?

• But then this: Saudi Aramco could raise the divided. LOL. Link here.

PSX: 

• almost two years with no dividend hike. Recent announcement maintains same dividend.
• why Phillips 66 rose 22.5% in February; link here.

Dak: highest paid NFL player ever? If so, only in Dallas. Everything is bigger in Texas.

China car sales, link here:

• more than quadrupled in February, 2021, year-over-year but a year ago, Covid-19 emerged;
• but look at this, EVs sold in China declined 38% month-over-month;

China grain demand: top concern. Link to S&P Global Platts. 

• China showing huge potential to remain key grain importer;
• revival of food nationalism; restrictive trade strategies worrisome;
• impact of trade measures seen limited so far;
• if extended, Russia's export curbs may lift global wheat prices;
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.42	3/9/2021	03/09/2020	03/09/2019	03/09/2018	03/09/2017
Active Rigs	16	55	67	59	43

No wells coming off confidential list today. 

RBN Energy: after the Deep Freeze; announcing RBN's virtual propane conference. 

We started off this propane season worried about the threat to U.S. propane markets from big-time exports. With exports now exceeding total U.S. propane demand, how would propane markets respond if we ever got a really cold winter? Well, now we know. Frigid weather finally arrived in February with a vengeance. 

But the propane market handled it pretty well. 

Now, as we approach the end of propane winter and examine where the market stands with inventories, prices, and especially exports, the big question is, what happens next? Will production volumes replace depleted stocks now sitting near a five-year low, or will those barrels move overseas? Will strong global petchem demand pull supplies out of U.S. markets? And if so, what does that imply for the 2021-22 retail propane season here in the U.S. In today’s blog, we’ll begin an exploration of these issues and introduce our upcoming RBN virtual conference covering developments in the propane market scheduled for May 12. Warning! Some of today’s blog is an unabashed advertorial for the conference.