They Need To Quit Overthinking This -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48318INVESTING.

Updates

5:18 a.m. CDT, September 19, 2024: I've been investing since 1980 or thereabouts -- in those 44 years I don't recall seeing pre-market activity like this. As noted last night, the talking heads on CNBC need to quit overthinking this. Not one talking head suggested this is what we would see this morning. Amazing. Most were quite concerned, most were quite negative. The "Fast Money" panel was particularly negative. I missed Cramer's last hour because of family commitments. I will watch it later this morning.

Original Post 

I was pretty much glued to the television set all day, watching CNBC.

For the archives, today was the day the Fed, i.e., Jay Powell, cut the Fed rate by 50 basis points, a historic and surprising "first." 

While listening to the talking heads on CNBC following Jay Powell's press conference, I had one thought: these guys are "overthinking this."

Tonight, I stopped by CNBC website to see what the futures market was doing. 

Yes, I was correct. These guys are overthinking this.

All things being equal, this is going to be one helluva quarter for traders and investors. 

Just saying. 

So much for selling in May and going away.

AAPL: up $4.00 during the day. Up another $1.60 after hours.

Halo Effect In The Killdeer Oil Field Fifteen Years After The Well Was First Drilled -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48317HALO.

From earlier today, two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40471, 901, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 4B, Tyrone oil field, Williams County
• 40285, 4,225, MRO, Muggli 44-12H, Killdeer, Dunn County:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	30096	30092	31600	23055	22054	926
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	31238	31225	32532	22801	22478	254
BAKKEN	5-2024	29	30590	30577	38305	20382	20303	17
BAKKEN	4-2024	12	24741	24686	34441	15397	14237	1106

A well of interest, from the same pad as the Muggli wells above:

• 17509, 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/09; cum 311K 724; recent production; lovin' that halo effect:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	17010	17003	29156	15327	14655	621
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	16163	16161	46871	11669	11504	130
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	17740	17777	56627	12796	12746	11
BAKKEN	4-2024	27	34525	34467	101784	21095	19508	1513
BAKKEN	3-2024	2	1896	1877	14236	1291	1186	87
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	22	342	528	136	378	216	59
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	538	630	179	608	343	81
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	552	428	159	609	368	64
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	531	631	169	520	349	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	565	634	223	596	289	123
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	569	428	197	572	332	62
BAKKEN	3-2023	30	574	640	172	569	299	102
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	537	643	190	538	223	151
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	595	434	174	601	343	75
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	600	645	149	618	344	37
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	571	639	141	579	324	35

 Initial production fifteen years ago:

BAKKEN	11-2009	26	862	1146	382	392	392	0
BAKKEN	10-2009	31	3501	3353	645	1529	1529	0
BAKKEN	9-2009	30	3491	3532	640	1702	1702	0
BAKKEN	8-2009	31	4140	3974	765	1948	1948	0
BAKKEN	7-2009	31	4999	5193	915	2108	2108	0
BAKKEN	6-2009	30	6296	6288	1280	2882	2882	0
BAKKEN	5-2009	25	9250	8977	2568	4346	4346	0
BAKKEN	4-2009	14	236	477	182	91	91	0
BAKKEN	3-2009	31	2712	2561	0	1224	1224	0
BAKKEN	2-2009	18	2360	2080	90	1086	0	1086

So, in 2009, initial production was less than 10,000 bbls in one month which quickly dropped to less than 5,000 bbls crude oil / month. Then, fifteen years later, production in that well jumps to 35,000 bbls crude oil in one month. Love that halo effect.

Here We Go Again -- Shutting Down The Government -- House GOP Refuses To Let Spending Plan Go Forward --

Locator: 48316ARCHIVES.

Link here. Trump wants the shutdown. Link here. To the best of my knowledge, the only thing shut down during a government shut down are the national parks.

*************************
Meanwhile 

Boeing machinists apparently missed that memo: the company is out of money. Link here. Teamsters Union won't endorse either Trump or Harris. Link here. Speak volumes. Stays neutral first time in nearly three decades.

Half-penny pricing in the stock market. Link here. Not only is the penny sticking around but now Wall Street is keeping the ha-penny. Certainly suggests inflation is not a problem if ha-pennies are coming back into fashion.

US ports getting closer to strike action: East and Gulf coasts. Link here. 77%? Why not 75% or 80%? But 77%?

The International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents the dockworkers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, is warning that its members will strike if they don’t secure a labor deal before their current contract ends on September 30, 2024.

A walkout would hit major seaports including New York-New Jersey, Savannah, Georgia; Norfolk, Virginia; and, Houston.

The union, which is seeking a 77% wage increase over six years, and port employers haven’t met at the bargaining table yet and no negotiations have been scheduled.

Nvidia lands a big deal with Salesforce. Link here.

Seven New Permits; One Permit Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48315B. 

WTI: $70.25.

Active rigs: 38.

Seven new permits, #41144 - #41150, inclusive:

• Operators: BR (6); Grayson Mill
• Fields: Westberg (McKenzie); Ragged Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has a permit for a Bratcher well, NWNW 15-151-101, 
• to be sited 350 FNL and 450 FWL;
• BR has permits for six wells: three Devils Backbone wells; and, three Watchman Peak wells, NWNE 14-152-97; 
• to be sited between 683 FNL and 608 FNL, and between 1810 FEL and 1598 FEL; it appears all the wells are 4-section wells, sections 2 / 11 / 14 / 23 - 152-97.

One permit renewed:

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40471, 901, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 4B, Tyrone oil field, Williams County
• 40285, 4,225, MRO, Muggli 44-12H, Killdeer, Dunn County:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	30096	30092	31600	23055	22054	926
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	31238	31225	32532	22801	22478	254
BAKKEN	5-2024	29	30590	30577	38305	20382	20303	17
BAKKEN	4-2024	12	24741	24686	34441	15397	14237	1106

A well of interest, from the same pad as the Muggli wells above:

• 17509, 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/09; cum 311K 724; recent production; lovin' that halo effect:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	17010	17003	29156	15327	14655	621
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	16163	16161	46871	11669	11504	130
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	17740	17777	56627	12796	12746	11
BAKKEN	4-2024	27	34525	34467	101784	21095	19508	1513
BAKKEN	3-2024	2	1896	1877	14236	1291	1186	87
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	22	342	528	136	378	216	59
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	538	630	179	608	343	81
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	552	428	159	609	368	64
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	531	631	169	520	349	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	565	634	223	596	289	123
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	569	428	197	572	332	62
BAKKEN	3-2023	30	574	640	172	569	299	102
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	537	643	190	538	223	151
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	595	434	174	601	343	75
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	600	645	149	618	344	37
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	571	639	141	579	324	35

WOW! 50 Basis Points -- S&P 500 Hits An All-Time Intra-Day High -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48314FED.

Announcement at 1:00 p.m. CT.

12:54 p.m.:

• Dow: down 8
• S&P 500: up 1
• NASDAQ: up 13

12:57 p.m.:

• Dow: down 27
• S&P 500: up 2
• NASDAQ up 17

1:00 p.m.: Announcement -- a cut of 50 basis points. Absolutely not on my bingo card  today! Wow!

• Dow: up 323
  
• S&P 500: up 47
  
• NASDAQ: up 200
  

1:10 p.m.:

• Dow: up 107
  
• S&P 500: up 22
  
• NASDAQ: up 105

1:15 p.m.:

• markets turn negative; now pretty much flat.
• easy come, easy go
  

Equities:

• AAPL: up $5.50, then up $4.00
  
• SRE: down 80 cents
• NVDA: up slightly but turned green from red
• AVGO: up $2.62
• AMGN: up $4.68
• CVX: up $1.61

S&P 500:

• previous intra-day high: 5,678.81
• intra day high today: 5,689.75 -- solid intra-day high

Close:

• Dow: 
  
• S&P 500: 
  
• NASDAQ: 
  

*****************************
Meanwhile

Boesing starts furloughing tens of thousands of employees amid machinist strike.
my hunch: C-suite feels it has nothing to lose by taking strong action; much to lose if management doesn't take strong action.

Amazon increases average pay for warehouse workers and adds free Prime membership perk.

Amazon And Shopify Enhance The Expansion Of Their Partnership -- Reflections On The Magnificent Seven -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48313MAG7. 

Not on my bingo card today! AAPL. On relatively "bad news" for AAPL it's having quite a day:

*******************************
Magnificent 7

New tag: Magnificent 7.

Enhancing the partnership: Amazon and Shopify.

This is so unlike any other sector in which to invest:

• relative monopolies
• unique strengths
• the average investor can actually "keep track" of a handful of companies
• behemoths 
• market values are incredible
• cash hordes for some are also incredible
  
• margins, amazing
  
• partnerships
• a different kind of competition, because they each depend on the other in some way, shape or form
• with some exceptions, their only raw material -- silica and brain power

****************************
Ticker BRK

Flat.

*********************
Flashback

Copy of Arianna's financial newsletter, April, 2005. 

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48312B.

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

• in storage: 7.1% less than one year ago; almost double the "usual" 4%;
• refiners: 92.1%
• jet fuel supplied: down 1.4% compared to last year

GDPNow, link here:

• drops back to 2.9% from 3.0% yesterday (September 17, 2024)
• next report: September 27, 2024
  

************************
The Media Page

Wow.

Link here.

Also, as expected JD Vance is very, very unhappy that the Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points. I don't know about you, but .... well, let's just say I'm happy with the rate cut.

When every vote counts, nothing like losing an entire segment of the population: those deplorable Haitian-Americans, link here:

Cramer's First Hour -- Housing Market Stats Surprisingly Strong -- US Equity Markets Could Open At/Near All-Time Highs -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48311CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Fed cut: at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon.

First subject this morning; tech out in California. Absolutely booming. Not nearly enough engineers. 

First half-hour: all about AI. 

BINGO! "Hyperscalers" mentioned by Cramer at 8:15 a.m.

Personal investing: Sophia will be adding to her natural gas position today.

SRE:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

 ***************************
The Art Page

New painting acquired by Kimball, the fine arts museum in Ft Worth.

George Stubbs, wiki.

Most Fascinating Energy Story Right Now -- Natural Gas Pipelines In Texas -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48312DELA. 

Natural gas and natural gas pipelines are tracked here.

Natural gas: it all started with these two stories -- RBN Energy and Bloomberg/Javier Blas. The rabbit hole:

• DeLa Express, Wood, September 16, 2024;
• natgas pipeline, selected Texas; EIA, September 10, 2024;
• DeLa, Oil & Gas Watch, June 6, 2024;
• DeLa, KXAN, June 4, 2024;
• TETCO, wiki;
• Plaquemines, Oil & Gas Journal, April 17, 2024;

DeLa: Delaware-to-Louisiana.

• 690-mile pipeline
• 300-foot-wide corridor
• 3,000 property owners to be affected: 3,473 tracts of land
• enough to meet the needs of a city the size of Chicago
• to begin operating in 2028
• "groundbreaking"

DeLa: across central Texas.

DeLa: Delaware-to-Louisiana 

Published: 16 September 2024.

Wood, a global leader in consulting and engineering, has been awarded the front-end engineering design (FEED) for a long-haul, large diameter liquids-rich natural gas pipeline project in the United States.

The DeLa Express pipeline project being developed by DeLa Express LLC, a subsidiary of Moss Lake Partners LP, is proposed to deliver liquids-rich natural gas from the Permian Basin of West Texas to the U.S. Gulf Coast and international export markets.

The pipeline project will act as a highway to supply the growing demand for natural gas and liquids, safely shipping critical energy to the largest demand markets, including the largest liquified natural gas (LNG) demand center in North America - Cameron Parish, Louisiana near the Sabine River Corridor.

The project is being designed for more than 2.0 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and liquids transportation capacity, enough to supply the daily equivalent demand of the city of Chicago, Illinois.

Major natural gas pipelines: Texas to Louisiana.

Hump Day -- Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Locator: 48310B. 

Amazon: employees -- to remain an employee -- must be back at work in the office five days / week. Wow, what a concept.

Investing: 20 dividend-paying stocks that benefit from a rate cut. Barron's.

Google, EU 1 - 0. Google  beats EU's $1.7 billion antitrust fine. Did hell just freeze over? Pigs flying?

Easy money: the question is now being raised -- should "easy money" be the norm? The economy took off (excelled) when the US had twelve years of easy money; April, 2008 -- September, 2022. Actually 14 years. A generation of Americans have only known "easy money." It becomes an even more fascinating question when we look at the real reason for inflation. Was Paul Krugman right all along? Even Steve Liesman is willing to play along, entertaining that thought.

Or was it simply about easily accessible, easily affordable, dispatchable energy?

Let's not overthink this.

The EU's crude oil production:

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.21.

Thursday, September 19, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
None.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
40241, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-6, Beaver Lodge, npd,
38649, conf, CLR, Ravin 13-1HSL, Dimmick Lake, npd,

RBN Energy: how much will LCI hydrogen help and will its production be cost-effective?

Two major pieces of early-2020s legislation — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA; 2022) — promise to provide billions of dollars in tax credits and other incentives for expanding the production of low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen. But the hype around clean hydrogen as a fuel of the future has lost some momentum of late, mostly due to spiraling costs. So we’re left with two questions: Can expanded production and use of LCI hydrogen significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and, just as important, is LCI hydrogen production cost-effective?