Family Soccer -- Nothing About The Bakken -- March 31, 2023

Middle granddaughter Olivia. Lives and breathes soccer, as well as almost everything else.

Junior in high school. Every one of her classes is AP.

Plays soccer for high school women's soccer team. One of three captains of the team. Captains are usually seniors. 

She also plays for a Dallas club team.

Anyway, Texas high school soccer is now in their championship season.

About a week ago, they won "district," the sixteenth consecutive district championship for this team. The coach thought this year would be the first year in sixteen years that the team would not come out of district.

They "won" district.

I'm out of the loop. I don't know where they are with regard to "regional" but I know they won their first two games earlier this week. I was told that the game tonight -- the third "regional" game was "make or break" and it was against the #1 "regional” team.

Long story short, Olivia's team won 3 - 2 in overtime. Whoo-hoo.

So, I don't know if they won "regional" or if they still have another game to play which they must win to go to "state." 

I don't think the girls really care if they won "regional" or not; they simply show up at the next scheduled game and play to win. Brackets? I don't think they know. They just play to win. 

I don't know when / where their next game is but a photographer has some incredible photos of the second game and has posted them on Flickr. I'll post a few of those photos over the next few days. 

Unfortunately I don't think I will be able to upload the "header" videos which the team has perfected. 

In the photo below, note the pink "band" around the stocking just below the knee -- you can't see it but there's a huge "C" on that pink band designating Olivia as a captain.

The CLR North Tarentaise Federal Wells -- Elm Tree

Locator: 10010CLRNTF.

Updates

November 17, 2023: see this note. The fly in this ointment: according to the application, the spacing unit for this well is an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 6, 5, 8, 7, 18, 19. So, let's post the company's planning diagram for this well (and pad). Posted here.

November 17, 2023: I wonder if I didn’t misread the DAR incorrectly. We’ll know shortly. But it looks like I had the surface sites and bottom hole locations reversed in the narrative and in the map below. If so, these are going to be short laterals; 640-acre spacing, to be sited in section 19, with long directionals running north into NENW section 18. I’m not going to re-draw the map now; if I’m correct now, simply see the “blue oval” in the map below as the bottom hole locations with surface holes in the section to the south.

Original Post

Seven new permits, #39772 - #39778, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Elm Tree (McKenzie)
• Comments: 
• CLR has permits for seven North Tarentaise Federal wells in SENW 19-153-94; lot 1, section 18-153-94; NENW 19-153-94; NWNE 18-153-94; NENE 18-153-94; 
• all to be sited 1650 FNL and between 2286 FWL and 2094 FWL;
• still on confidential, not exactly sure where the horizontals will run  
• the way the wells will be sited suggests they will originate in section 18 and then run south into section 19; 
• if they run north, they would go into Petro-Hunt's Phelps Bay play
• if they run three sections south, they would run into Hess' Antelope play, suggesting that that these will 1280-arcre spacing, running to the south, but they are certainly sited too far south to leave some oil stranded to the north in section 18.
• the "south" Tarentaise wells run west - east, so ... who knows?
  
• map:
  

*******************************
Tarentaise Cattle

 Perfect for the Killdeer Mountains in North Dakota.

Week 13: March 26, 2023 -- April 1, 2023

Top story:

• Joe Biden is still president
• Former president indicted; will appear in court Tuesday, April 4, 2023.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues

Top international energy story: 

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Banking debacle seems to have run its course.
  

Top national energy story: 

• 
  

Javier Blas:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.
  

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

 

Fantasy Land -- US Equities -- March 31, 2023

Cup half empty: we are on the cusp of another financial crisis -- Peter Schiff. Sell everything! Link here.

Cup half full: First Citizens BancShares (aka National Silicon Valley), Link here.

Me: I seldom read ZeroHedge. So there's that.

What am I reading today? Disney's Land: Walt Disney and the Invention of the Amusement Park That Changed The World, Richard Snow, c. 2019.

Also: Window on Main Street: 35 Years of Creating Happiness at Disneyland Park, Van Arsdale France, c. 2015, at Amazon. Just ordered it, sight unseen.

WTI Advances -- March 31, 2023

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $75.67.

Natural gas: $2.216.

Seven new permits, #39772 - #39778, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Elm Tree (McKenzie)
• Comments: 
• CLR has permits for seven North Tarentaise Federal wells in SENW 19-153-94; lot 1, section 18-153-94; NENW 19-153-94; NWNE 18-153-94; NENE 18-153-94; 
• all to be sited 1650 FNL and between 2286 FWL and 2094 FWL;
• still on confidential, not exactly sure where the horizontals will run  
• map:
  

GDPNow -- 2.5% -- Inflation Cooling? March 31, 2023

Link here. 

Down from 3.2% -- previous report, March 24, 2023.

**********************
Inflation Cooling 

Link here.

******************************
Stocks Surge -- Last Day Of the First Quarter, 2023

US LNG Exports Hit An All-Time High After Freeport Ramped Up Production -- March 31, 2023

Link here.

*****************************
Modern Art

Sophia's project this week.

Her first commission. 

A classmate asked for an original painting from Sophia. 

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI At $75 -- March 31, 2023

First things first! Wes Anderson in theaters, June 16, 2023! Link here.

For the archives: Trump indicted; likely to be arraigned Tuesday next week.

Market, last day of the first quarter, and we're in a recession, so "they" say:

NKLA: shares crash; company needs more cash now. Link here. Down 13% today; trading at $1.22.

EVs: today, all up a bit (except NKLA).

Ford: raises prices again its F-150 Lightning. 

The cheapest of the company’s electric trucks now costs $59,974, marking the latest in a series of price increases since the full-size, battery-powered pickup trucks began rolling off Detroit assembly lines in April of last year. At that time, the starting price was roughly $40,000. By August, it had jumped to $46,974. In October, Ford executives raised it to $51,974, and in December, it increased to $56,000. 

The company has attributed the price increases to the rising costs of raw materials. 

Ford sold 15,600 Lightnings in 2022, and 3,600 through February of this year. The company said it wants to increase output to an annualized rate of about 150,000 vehicles by late this year.

Ford: link here. And, in seven years, a new battery will be needed.

Buffett: the second stock Warren Buffett ever bought, ended FY22 with a 67% profit margin. Link here. 

Apple Pay: banks at war. Hey, wait, when did "everyone" start using Apple Pay?

Exodus: from "large city, USA." Link here. Which two cities did you look at first? 

*************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $74.82.

Natural gas: $2.184.

Monday, April 3, 2023: 6 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 261 for the year
38880, conf, Whiting, Richard Olson 31-1HR,
38879, conf, Whiting, Mariah Olson 31-1HR2,
38691, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-12H,
31214, conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13TFH,

Sunday, April 2, 2023: 3 for the month: 3 for the quarter, 258 for the year
38848, conf, Enerplus, Pattern 149-93-05A-08H-LL,

Saturday, April 1, 2023: 2 for the month: 2 for the quarter, 257 for the year
38692, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-6H,
38543, conf, Whiting, Marlys Olson 31-1H,

Friday, March 31, 2023: 91 for the month: 255 for the quarter, 255 for the year
None. Six months ago, September has only 30 days.

Thursday, March 30, 2023: 91 for the month: 255 for the quarter, 255 for the year
3550, conf (no typo), Empire North Dakota, Waddle-Olson 1,
38864, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-5MBHX,
38762, conf, Whiting, Locken 12-11TFX,

RBN Energy: when price does not matter -- exchange trading, differentials, and the cash roll.

As crude oil exports have become an integral part of US/Canadian trading, the market has evolved to accommodate this profound transformation. But the mechanisms used to price many of the most significant export grades are obscure and little understood outside a small cadre of professional traders and marketers. This is particularly true for the most liquid grades that employ a trading approach known as “exchange trading” or “spread trading,” in which volumes at regional hubs are valued in buy-sell transactions against domestic sweet crude at Cushing. In this context, “exchange trading” does not mean trading on a regulated exchange. Instead, it means trading via an exchange of barrels between buyer and seller. In today's RBN blog, we delve into some of the most complex aspects of this trading mechanism.

No New Permits; No Renewed Permits -- March 30, 2023

North Texas: first time in its history, wins the NIT championship -- North Texas, Denton -- just a few miles north of here. Our daughter works in Denton!!

Putin: knows the Russian economy is coming undone?

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $74.26.

Natural gas $2.103

No new permits.

No renewed permits.

Eggs — In Context, The Egg Story Was …. Silly … And A Distraction — March 30, 2023

Link here.

Americans, today, have it pretty good.

**********************

Never Cry Over A Boy

… you’ll ruin your mascara.

Link here.

************************

We Gotta Get

… out of this place.

Link here.

 

**************************
A Goldilocks Economy

 

Link here. And here.

Mortgage rates falling: recent home buyers can re-finance and use their new house as an ATM.

Jobs everywhere. Unemployment rate about 1%. Lots of folks taking advantage of this by holding two jobs.

Initial unemployment claims: from 191,000 to 195,000. 

Unions back in vogue. See recent Michigan story. Right to work.

 

Eggs at Target back to what they were two years ago. 

 

GDP: holding. 

 

Taylor Swift tickets at $1,000. Not my idea of a recession.

 

Those who are skittish of/about the stock market can invest in bonds and get a 5% return and no risk now that the US government will backstop even the worst-run banks.

Those who don't like guaranteed 5% yields can easily get 7%+ yields in the stock market, with hardly much more risk.

 

US not directly involved in any war.

 

US with so much energy, natural gas is going for less than $2.00. Now, Henry Hub with a $1-handle; if the news gets any better, we'll see natgas with a $0-handle. LOL.

A Bit Of Reality — March 30, 2023

Overnight.

This is why SecTransportation didn’t go to the East Palestine derailment. Today he would be traveling to Wilmer, Minnesota, and then on to Hettinger, ND. 

With 1,000 derailments a year, that’s all Buttigieg would be doing, 24/7.

Similarly, but not quite the same, it’s the reason VPOTUS isn’t visiting the southern border. (By the way, has anyone even talked about the “southern surge,” lately? If not, there must be a reason.)

I don’t have problems with either of them on those two issues.

Ovintiv, Fourteen Well On 1280-Acre Units; Siverston / South Tobacco Garden -- March 30, 2023

From the April, 2023, hearing dockets:

• 29994, Ovintiv, Siverston-Bakken; fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 13/24-150-99; McKenzie;
• 29995, Ovintiv, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 14/23-150-99; McKenzie;

The map:

The existing wells:

• 28094 1,367, Ovintiv, Wehrunng 150-99-14-23-5H, South Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum 251K 1/23;
• 28095, 1,967, Ovintiv, Wehrunng 150-99-14-23-4H, South Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum 238K 1/23;

• 20456, 1,096, Ovintiv, Staal 150-99-23-14-1H, South Tobacco Garden, t8/11; cum 371K 1/23;

• 23924, 1,096, Ovintiv, Staal 150-99-23-14-10H, South Tobacco Garden, t3/13; cum 154K 1/23;  
• 23925, 1,624, Ovintiv, Staal 150-99-23-14-3H, South Tobacco Garden, t4/13; cum 274K 1/23;  
• 23926, 3,027, Ovintiv, Staal 150-99-23-14-2H, South Tobacco Garden, t3/13; cum 306K 1/23;

• 25270, 1,798, Ovintiv, Holm 150-99-13-24-3H, Siverston, t8/13; cum 236K 1/23;
•  25271, 1,435, Ovintiv, Holm 150-99-13-24-2H, Siverston, t8/13; cum 282K 4/22;

• 20335, IA/2,370, Ovintiv, Holm 150-99-13-24-1H, Siverston, t8/11; cum 362K 4/22; off line;
  

• 26467, 1,007, Ovintiv, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H, Siverston, t5/14; cum 225K 1/23; 
• 26468, 946, Ovintiv, Scott 150-99-13-24-5H, Siverston, t5/14; cum 214K 1/23;
  

Just How Big Is Apple, Inc, Anyway? March 30, 2023

This will give you some idea, link here.

Apple in the news for another reason today: it's been talked about for years -- all the way back to when Steve Jobs and Bob Iger were on the boards of the other's company board. Bob Iger, at that time, said it would happen. Now, talk again.

Buy DIS now and hope for AAPL shares if Apple buys Disney? 

Nope.

• DIS P/E at 54.
• AAPL P/E at 27.

Disney has such a great brand name, and Disney has always been a darling of Wall Street -- what that means:
Apple makes a move for DIS: Apple has an immediate 10- 15% jump in share price.

How does Apple "move the needle"? Huge acquisition.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

Would this be akin to theWarren Buffett BRK buying BNSF some years ago?

DIS:

• market cap: $180 billion

AAPL:

• market cap: $2.6 trillion
• cash on hand:

What will Apple get out of it?

• lots of content;
• lots of debt; and,
• lots of headaches.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI-Brent Update -- March 30, 2023

Midmorning; WTI jumped $1.01.

WTIBrent: finally someone is talking about this. Link here.

From cargoes for June onward, West Texas Intermediate Midland, oil from the Permian will become one of a handful of grades that set the Dated benchmark.

Freeport:

Overnight:

FF: EV production starts after months delay; FF91; it's much-delayed first luxury car, the FF 91 Futurist, California factory; shares rose 24% to 44 cents/share; longer range and better acceleration than Tesla, etc. No specifics. 

RSV: J&J drops out. Link here. 

Last month, a split panel of FDA experts voted 7-4 in support of the safety and effectiveness of Pfizer's shot. Soon after, the same committee voted unanimously in support of the effectiveness of GSK's shot and 10-2 on the safety question.

Though Moderna is trailing, the company stands a chance of gaining approval in time for the upcoming RSV season this fall. That puts all three on deck to compete. News on the RSV vaccine front could spark shares. Pfizer and Moderna stocks remain below their 50-day lines, while GSK stock is trading in line with that key marker.

Johnson & Johnson didn't expect to wrap up its Phase 3 study until November 2024, according to ClinicalTrials.gov. That would have given the other three a vast lead. Meanwhile, JNJ stock is already under pressure this year, having fallen more than 16% from a high point in late December.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $73.55.

Natural gas: $2.137.

Friday, March 31, 2023:
None. Six months ago, September has only 30 days.

Thursday, March 30, 2023:
3550, conf (no typo), Empire North Dakota, Waddle-Olson 1,
38864, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-5MBHX,
38762, conf, Whiting, Locken 12-11TFX, 

RBN Energy: in quest to lower methane emissions, piking the right technology is key, part 3. 

The oil and gas industry is being pushed by regulators, third parties and investors to better identify and mitigate its methane emissions, especially the few “super-emitter” sites that make outsize contributions to overall emissions. But while operators are ramping up capital spending on new technology, one thing has become clear: There is no silver bullet when it comes to reducing emissions, and each option includes one or more drawbacks, including source attribution, costs, quantification, and detection limits. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll break down the advantages and disadvantages of the different measurement technologies.

Polestar, Hudson Yards, And The Vessel -- March 29, 2023

Reminder: Timberwolves vs Suns tonight, on NBC, 9:00 p.m. ET (?). Kevin Durant back after 10 missed games. 

Six links; too tired to do anything more with them, but want to clear out my in-box.

• Polestar 1: link here.
• Polestar 1: link here.
• Hudson Yards, NYC: link here.
• The Vessel, Hudson Yards: link here.
• The Vessel: link here.

AMC / Amazon: link here.

• AMC shares: surged at the open, but closed minus 3% for the day; down 15 cents; trading at $5.00.
• so much for that rumor. 

Huge story:

• yesterday on the blog: Washington State -- no income tax (state constitution)
• fees on capital gains "okay" 
• Washington State: still no income tax.
  
• on blog earlier today;
• moving to Texas: Fisher Investments. Moving here for the weather. LOL. Fees on capital gains. 
• moving down the road from us, to Plano. A suburb north of Texas.
• Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b56a2c81-e128-39d7-9597-fbf1d43dca2b/fisher-investments-moves-to.html.
• Texas relocation tracker: link here.  
• today: Fisher Investments announces they will leave Washington State and move to Texas;
  Plano, TX, to be specific

For North Dakota Snowbirds Currently In Phoenix: Global Warming Smacks Bismarck; Nine New Permits -- March 29, 2023

WTI closes just below $73. How did the equity markets do?

Holy mackerel, not on my bingo card today:

• Dow up 323 points.
• NASDAQ: up 210 points.
• S&P 500: up 56 points.
• CVX: up $1.37; up 0.9%; trading at $160.86.
• COP: up $1.82; up 1.9%; trading at $99.75.
• PSX: up $1.50; up 1.5%; trading at $100.28.
• PXD: up $4.51; up 2.3%; trading at $202.28.
• DVN: up $1.22; up 2.5%; trading at $49.79.
• HES: up $3.4; up 2.6%; trading at $133.
• EOG: up $2.27; up 2%; trading $112.68.
• ENB: up $1.10; up 3%; trading at $37.82.
• EPD: up 16 cents; up 0.6% trading at $25.59.
• SRE: this $124 stock up $3.00; up 2%; trading at $148.45.
• AAPL: up $31.2; up 2%; trading at $160.77.
• TSM: up $1.95; up 2%; trading at $92.76.
• RIVN: up $1.28; up 10%; trading at $14.24.
• F: up 45 cents; up 4%; trading at $12.05.
  

From The Bismarck Tribune:

Cold weather that blanketed North Dakota early Wednesday set a record in Bismarck.

The overnight low plunged to minus 13 degrees, breaking the previous mark for the date of minus 7 degrees set in 1964, according to the National Weather Service. Normal for March 29 is a low of 24 degrees above zero.

Overnight temps plummeted as low as minus 20 degrees in Oakes and Rugby, according to the weather service. Linton had minus 18, and Steele and Glen Ullin minus 15.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $72.79.

Natural gas: $1.991.

Nine new permits, #39763 - #39771, inclusive:

• Operators: WPX (5); Marathon (4)
• Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn County); Lake Ilo (Dunn County); Bailey (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• WPX has permits for five Sarah Yellow Wolf wells, NENW 22-149-91; 
• to be sited between 916 FNL and 818 FNL and between 2293 FWL and 2407 FWL;
• MRO has permits for the following four wells -- Quincy, Middleton, Ebetoft, and Beverly, NWNE 18-145-93; 
• to be sited 432 FNL and between 1470 FEL and 1590 FEL.

Hearing Dockets -- April, 2023

Link here. 

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

See also cases of interest here.

Wednesday.
April 23, 2023
16 pages

These are cases, not permits. 

• 29951, NDIC, Squaw Gap Field, consider name change, McKenzie County.
• 29952, NDIC, Charlson-Bakken, terminate a lease-linee 2560-acre unit; establish a laydown lease-line 1280-acre unit.
  
• 29953, Hess, Stanley and/or Alger-Bakken, 2 x 7 = 14 wells, establish two overlapping laydown 1920-acre units, section 1-155-92 and sections 5/6-155-91; and, section 12-155-92 and sections 7/8-155-91,  Mountrail County;
• 29954, Hess, Stanley and/or Alger-Bakken, establish an overlapping 38440-acre unit, sections 1/12-155-92 and sections 5/6/7/8-155-91; one well, Mountrail.
  
• 29955, Hess, Antelope-Sanish, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sectiosn 12/13-152-95 and sections 7/18-152-94, one well, McKenzie County.
  
• 29956, Hess, Manitou-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 2/3/10/11-155-94; one well, Mountrail.
  
• 29957, Hess, casing on plugged and abandoned wells.
  
• 29958, Neptune Operating LLC, Pronghorn-Bakken, establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units, sections 5/8/17; and sections 20/29/32-150-101, two wells each unit; McKenzie County.
  
• 29959, Oasis, Squires and/or Bull Butte-Bakken; i) establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units, sections 17/20/29-156-102; and, section 32-156-102 and sections 5/8-155-102; three wells on each; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units, sections 16/7/20/21/2829-156-102; and sections 32/33-156-102 and sections 4/5/8/9-155-102; one well on each, Willliams County.
  
• 29960, Oasis, Tyrone-Bakken, i) establish three overlapping standup 1920-accre units; sections 12/13/24-156-102; sections 7/18/19-156-101; sections 8/17/20-156-101; three wells each; ii) establish one overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, section 1-156-102 and sections 5/6-156-101; three wells; iii) establish two overlapping 3840 acre units, sections 12/13/24-156-102 and sections 7/18/19-156-101; and sections 7/8/1718/19/20-156-101; one well on each, Williams.
  
• 29961, Ovintiv, Siverston, Tobacco Garden and/or South Tobacco Garden-Bakken; i) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 13/14/23/24; and sections 14/15/22/23-150-99; one well each; ii) establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 1/2/11/12-150-99; sections 2/3/10/11-150-99, and sections 13/24-150-99, and sections 18/19-150-98, two wells on each; McKenzie.
  
• 29962, Kraken, commingling,
• 29963, Oasis, pooling,
• 29964, Oasis, pooling,
• 29965, Oasis, pooling,
• 29966, Oasis, pooling,
• 29967, Oasis, pooling,
• 29968, Oasis, pooling,
• 29969, Oasis, pooling,
• 29970, Oasis, pooling,
• 29971, Oasis, pooling,
• 29972, Oasis, pooling,
• 29973, Oasis, pooling,
• 29974, Oasis, pooling,
• 29975, Oasis, commingling,
• 29976, Murex, commingling,
• 29977, Murex, commingling,
• 29978, Hess, commingling,
• 29979, Hess, commingling,
• 29980, Hess, commingling,
• 29981, Hess, commingling,
• 29982, Hess, pooling,
• 29983, Hess, pooling,
• 29984, Hess, pooling,
• 29985, Hess, pooling,
• 29986, Hess, pooling,
• 29987, Whiting, pooling,
• 29988, Whiting, pooling,
• 29989, Whiting, pooling,
• 29990, Whiting, pooling,
• 29991, Whiting, pooling,
• 29992, Whiting, pooling,
• 29993, Ovintiv, commingling,
• 29994, Ovintiv, Siverston-Bakken; fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 13/24-150-99; McKenzie;
• 29995, Ovintiv, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 14/23-150-99; McKenzie; 
• 29996, BR, commingling,
• 29997, BR, commingling,
• 29998, MRO, pooling;
• 29999, MRO, commingling,
• 30000, MRO, commingling,
• 30001, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30002, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30003, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30004, Lime Rock, pooling,
• 30005, Lime Rock, pooling,
  

Thursday.
April 27, 2023
13 pages

These are cases, not permits.

• 30006, NDIC, Liberty Resources Management, termination / reduction of the Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, McKenzie and Williams counties.
• 30007, NDIC, Samson Oil and Gas USA, Foreman-Butte pool, temporary authority to rework and use the Mays #1-20H well, #15646, section 28-150-102 for an EOR pilot operation, McKenzie County.
• 30008, Resonance Exploration a proposed injection well, 720-acre spacing; E/2, E/2W/2 of section 36-163-79, and NE/4, E/2NW/4 of section 1-162-79, Bottineau County.
  
• 30009, Resonance Exploration a proposed injection well, 640-acre spacing; S/2SW/4 of section 1 and the S/2, NW/4 and S/2NE/4 of section 12-162-80, Bottineau County. 
• 30010, one well,
• 30011, Cobra Oil & Gas, terminate the Bauman Drain-Madison Unit, Bottineau County.
  
• 30012, KODA Resources Operating, 20 wells + 40 wells for a total of 60 wells.
• 30013, KODA Resources, Daneville-Bakken, 20 wells.
• 30014, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, 
• 30015, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken, Rattlesnake Point-Bakken, and/or Jim Creek-Bakken, create and establish twwooverlapping 3840-acre units, sectionn 36-147-97, section 1/12-146-97, section 31-147-96 and section 6/7-146-96; and, secctions 13/24/25-146-97, and sections 18/19/30-146-96; one well between spacing units; Dunn County; 
• 30016, EMEP Operating, create a 160-acre unit, NE/4 of section 4-142-94; recompletion of the Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-9H (#23676); Dunn County;
• 30017, Grayson Mill, Camp-Bakken, exception to the rules; McKenzie County;
• 30018, Crescent Point Energy, Little Muddy-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 1/2/11/12-158-101, one section line well; Williams
• 30019, Crescent Point Energy, commingling;
• 20020, Crescent Point Energy, commingling;
• 30021, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30022, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30023, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30024, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30025, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30026, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30027, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30028, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30029, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
• 30030, Liberty Resources Management, pooling;
• 30031, Liberty Resources Management, pooling;
• 30032, CLR, pooling;
• 30033, CLR, pooling;
• 30034, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken; five wells each on two existing 1920-acre units, sections 2/11/14 and sections 23/26/35-160-102, Divide County;
• 30035, WPX, commingling;
• 30036, WPX, commingling;
• 30037, Enerplus, commingling;
• 30038, XTO, commingling;
• 30039, XTO, commingling;
• 30040, XTO, commingling;
• 30041, Resonance Exploration, injection well on a 640-acre unit, S/2SW/4, section 1 and the S/2, NW/4 and S/2NE/4 of section 12-162-80, Bottineau; 
• 30042, Resonance Exploration, injection well on a720-acre unit, E/2, E/2W/2 section 36-163-79 and the NE/4, E/2NW/4 section 1-162-79, Bottineau County.
  

Friday.
April 27, 2023
1 page

These are cases, not permits. Only two cases:

• 30043, Foundation Energy Management, Camel Hump-Red River Unit, for unitized management, Golden Valley.
• 30044, Foundation Energy Management, Camel Hump-Red River Unit; the plan for unitization, Golden Valley.  

Is Anyone Paying Attention? Look At These Numbers -- March 29, 2023

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping 7.5 million bbls but the amount of oil in storage is still 6% more than its historical norm; six percent;
• refiners are operating at 90% of their capacity;
• implied gasoline demand hit 10 million bopd;
• distillate fuel inventories are still 9% below their recent historical average;
• airlines are taking 7.1% more jet fuel now than they did in the same period one year ago.

Gasoline demand, link here:

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- March 29, 2023

OneLNG: Golar and Schlumberger form OneLNG joint venture. Link here. Do you know when that was? July 25, 2016. Seven years ago.

Today, from a reader: undated (?) --

The Eagle Ford would have also been a great choice but OneLNG went with the Bakken. Whoo-hoo!

The Ozempic Era -- March 29, 2023

My "new money" investment allotment -- 40 - 30 - 20 - 5 - 5:

• 40: BRK
• 30: tech
• 20: oil
• 5: Big Pharma
• 5: Daimler

I have a problem with Big Pharma. 

The New Yorker, March 27, 2023: "The Ozempic Era." A six-page essay.

And then this, over at Yahoo!Finance: 

Ticker: NVO.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Recession? What Recession? March 29, 2023

EIA weekly petroleum report. Wow! Link  here: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf.

Home sales: a surprise. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-pending-home-sales-post-140213114.html.

Mortgage rates: continue to melt. Link here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-move-swiftly-lock-good-130000286.html.

California to Texas: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-says-retirees-add-least-130039245.html.

WTI: $73.35.

Dow: up nicely.

RMDs: another year.

Moving to Texas: Fisher Investments. Moving here for the weather. LOL. Fees on capital gains. Moving down the road from us, to Plano. A suburb north of Texas. Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b56a2c81-e128-39d7-9597-fbf1d43dca2b/fisher-investments-moves-to.html.

NVDA: frothy. Link here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-sizzling-ai-driven-rally-100800938.html.

Lana Del Rey:

playlist 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW8FbLxcqck

playlist 2:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5Nzcyg5r4M

playlist 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0YCvrqFyIs&t=0s

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- March 29, 2023

Laser-focused on dividends: did I miss this one?

Recent history:

• 2018: 69 cents
• 2019: 76 cents
• 2020: 76 cents, unchanged
• 2021: 90 cents, and then $1.05 in same year
• 2022: $1.05, then $1.13, and then $1.20 -- all in same year
• 2023: starts off with a bang -- $1.25

Almost 20% increase from beginning of 2022 to beginning of 2023.

Henry Hub Breaks Below $2.00; WTI Flirting With $74; Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Halo Effect Now Becoming "The Expected” -- March 29, 2023

Wow, I'm in a great mood. Up most of the night, couldn't sleep. Too much to write.

Why did "sleep" evolve? Fascinating question. Google the question. I spent some time on that overnight; it seems no one has come up with the answer -- but I have my "theory" and again, I know I'm correct. LOL.

Grammar: fascinating topic. A reader sent me this link: "English is not normal." Among many, many other reasons this article "made my day": I was introduced to another professor of linguistics, a subject I really, really enjoy. John McWhorter. Columbia University. So many personal dots to connect including B.A. from Rutgers. But there's something else about the author that blew me away. 

Frisians: quick! Name the breed of the horse that Zorro rode.

Frisian or Friesian? By the way is it Frisian or is it Friesian. My maternal grandmother was from East Frisia, and I've probably mentioned Frisia / Frisian on my various blogs more times than I care to admit. No, I enjoy admitting it.  

Nationality: so what "nationality" is a Frisian?

One day closer to summer: one day closer to swimming outdoors. 

Olivia, the soccer player. Her team has now won the first two of three "regional" games. If they win this next game, later this week, they "go to state." They are are not expected to win. On the other hand, they were also not expected to "take district," which they did -- their high school women's soccer team has now "taken district" sixteen consecutive years. Quick: name any other team, high school, college, professional that has won their "district" championship sixteen consecutive years. And this in sports-crazy Texas.

New iPhone: this should get your attention. Link here.

Apple Music Classical is here. Link here. Here. Here.

Amazon Prime never fails to surprise (and reward me). Apple just introduced their Classical Music app which will be / is "free" with an Apple Music subscription ($99 / year; $4.99/month for college students. What I did not know: Apple Music is "free" (better said, no additional cost) for those with Amazon Prime. But there is a "catch." That "catch" confuses things but bottom line: with Amazon Prime, one has full access to all Apple music. Link here. Not the best link; other links better. 

Too many apps? Could apps disappear? Amazon may have opened that door. My hunch: most iPhone users are getting frustrated with the look of their screen -- cluttered with "pages" of apps, most of which are seldom used but, in the user's mind, critical. Yes, they also end up using a lot of memory and energy. Yes, I know, apps can be turned on / off; data won't be lost.

Amazon Music catalog: link here.

The equity market: never fails to surprise. Not entirely true, but today that adage seems true. If the Dow follows through with it's pre-market enthusiasm, it suggests that traders feel the risk of a banking collapse is trending toward zero.

The oil market: "they" say the price of WTI is climbing because of the spat between Iraq and Kurdistan. Perhaps. I doubt it.

Ukraine:

• Russia's winter offensive: it failed.
• Ukraine hit major target deep behind the "front line."
• Growing talk from Kyiv of a counterassault against Russian forcees worn out by a failed witner offensive.
• All from today's Reuters briefing.
• Peter Zeihan "predicted" this six months ago.
• Remember: Russian forces are now paid mercenaries.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter: with regard to Urkainee, the Japanese "get it." Unlike the GOP and Mr Trump.

WTI: pre-market, flirting with $74.

Natural gas: breaks below $2.00. Oh-oh.

Thursday, March 30, 2023:
3550, conf (no typo), Empire North Dakota, Waddle-Olson 1,
38864, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-5MBHX,
38762, conf, Whiting, Locken 12-11TFX,

Wednesday, March 29, 2023: 88 for the month: 252 for the quarter, 252 for the year
39246, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 32-1 SWD,
39193, conf, CLR, Allen 6-17H,
38439, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-LW-156-93-0409H-1

RBN Energy: a twofer.

Plans for energy development largely rest on fate of US permitting reform. Posted yesterdday, also.

E&Ps reap record 2022 profits, but eroding 4Q22 returns harken a ess idyllic 2023. Perhaps.

Last August, we titled our review of Q2 2022 E&P financial results Camelot after rising oil prices and surging natural gas realizations drove revenues, profits and cash flows to levels that seemed like an unrealizable dream for producers that had teetered on the brink of financial instability just two years before. Recent year-end results revealed the strongest returns in the industry’s history, much of which were distributed to long-suffering shareholders. But dreams fade and prices retreat, and Q4 2022 results suggest a far less idyllic 2023. In today’s RBN blog, we review the record 2022 performance and more sobering Q4 results.

After struggling to keep their heads above water since 2014, the 42 E&Ps in the universe of companies we track — which includes every publicly held U.S. E&P with a market capitalization over $500 million, but not integrated energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron — recorded back-to-back record profitable years in 2021 and 2022. These producers earned $82 billion in pre-tax operating profit in 2021 then doubled those results to $167 billion in 2022. As shown in Figure 1, the gap between E&P revenue (in dollars per barrel of oil equivalent, or $/boe; gray line) and costs (multicolored bars) is negligible to negative between 2015-20, with soaring profitability in 2021 and 2022 (white-space gap above bars) driven by healthy commodity prices and fiscally disciplined operating and capital expenditures.

Focus On Fracking -- March 28, 2023

Link here.

Lede:

• biggest drop in gasoline supplies in 18 months;
• DUC well backlog at 4.9 months

That EIA fudge factor:

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,376,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 17th, an average of 21,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 160,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US.

So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending March 17th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports and from oilfield production was 1,996,000 barrels per day less than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week.

To account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a [+1,996,000] barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil ... NB: there is also a more recent twitter thread from the EIA administrator addressing these erros, and what they hope to do about it.

There is so much more at the linked article.

Anticipation -- XTO Well In Haystack Butte -- March 28, 2023

This DUC today reported as completed:

• 35933, 2,734, XTO, Hovet Federal 41X-29D,

Of interest:

• 20140, 1,841, XTO, Mandal Federal 41X-29C, Haystack Butte, t10/13; cum 225K 7/22:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	2	0	0	1790	102	0	102
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	13	469	1154	837	1085	1052	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	21	340	718	779	1062	1018	11

One Of The Best Acquisitions Ever -- March 28, 2023

Link here.

Job Cuts -- March 28, 2023

Crocodile tears for all those Disney cuts.

• reality: put 223 Disney employees in an auditorium, and seven will lose their jobs
• reality: put 100 Disney employees in an auditorium, and three will lose their jobs
• my hunch: about that many would leave Disney every year; this "drastic" action simply makes it happen more quickly

Meanwhile, Lucid, link here:

Shares in LCID fell 7.25% today.

RIVN: fell 2.63% today.

ARVL: down 8% today.

RIDE: down half a percent today; trading at 65 cents; when we had all that "free money" in late 2020, RIDE was trending toward $30 / share.

EV scorecard here.

• Scorecard changed, November 22, 2021.
  

• EV scorecard just a few days ago, link here:
  

• Rivian -- Amazon -- Ford -- GlobalFoundries
  
• Lordstown -- Apple -- GM -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
  
• Tesla -- chips (?)

•  Also:

• Lordstown -- Apple -- GM (sells entire stake) -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
• Lordstown -- Foxconn -- Endurance pickup -- added July 4, 2022

It's Spring --The Finches Are Building Their Nests -- March 28, 2023

Seeing many, many, many pairs of these house finches over the last few days.

Throughout our apartment complex.

I'll be putting out my hummingbird feeder next week -- as soon as Amazon ships. Normally it would be next-day delivery, but this is a special feeder that is shipped from the "source," not from Amazon.

I'll scatter small-bird bird seed for the finches.

Link here.