Global Oil Demand Hits Record, Prices May Climb -- Rigzone -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45432OIL.

Yesterday, it was reported that OPEC estimated global crude oil demand would hit 104.25 million bopd in 2024. 

Now: link here. We're already at 103 million bopd. 

From the link:

Global oil demand has surged to a record amid robust consumption in China and elsewhere, threatening to push prices higher, the International Energy Agency said. 

World fuel use averaged 103 million barrels a day for the first time in June and may soar even higher in August, the agency said in a report. As Saudi Arabia and its partners constrict supplies, oil markets are tightening significantly.

“Oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity,” the Paris-based IEA said. “Crude and products inventories have drawn sharply” and “balances are set to tighten further into the autumn.”

Oil this week touched a six-month high above $88 a barrel in London amid the post-pandemic resurgence in fuel use and supply restraint by the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance. Brent futures eased back a little to trade below $87 on Friday.

The plunge in world oil demand during the Covid-19 crisis three years ago spurred speculation that consumption may be close to a peak as remote working gained in popularity and governments sought to shift away from fossil fuels to avert catastrophic climate change.

But the IEA data shows that, despite growing evidence of a warming planet shown by this summer’s heat waves and wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere, oil use is stronger than ever. China will account for 70% of this year’s demand growth, but surprisingly resilient developed nations added to the latest surge.

Week 32: August 7, 2023 -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45431TOP.

Top story:

• 
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues but it seems "no one" knows.
  

Top international energy story:

• Global oil demand hits record: 103 million bopd.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Special Counsel - Hunter Biden
  

Top national energy story:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

•  Quick connects.
  

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

West LA -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45430CA. 

 West LA:

Wow, I have great memories of west LA.

The 123rd Women's Amateur golf championship is being played at the Bel-Air Country Club.

The "tunnel" on that golf course determined the size of today's electric golf carts.

**********

The Book Club

Never stop reading.

Premonition led me to this book. Ordered the hard cover on Amazon just now. It will arrive in two days, Sunday.

Link here.

Investors: Five Stocks For A Bear Market -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45429INV.

Whoo-hoo! Three of the five are in my various buckets. Whoo-hoo!

My bucket strategy is an easy strategy to pass on to Sophia. Link here.

Ten Permits Renewed, Three New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45428B. 

WTI: $83.19.

Active rigs: 39.

Three new permits, #40120 - #40122, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for three Teapot Federal wells, SESE 16-152-92, to be sited 1109 FSL and betwween 310 FEL and 410 FEL

Ten permits renewed:

• XTO (9):
• BR:

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37546, 592, Lime Rock Resources,
• 39139, 1,254, CLR,
• 39136, 1,633, CLR,
• 39137, 1,044, CLR,

CLR Nomenclature — Long Creek Unit -- Disclaimer Applies -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45427B.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

In reply to comments by a reader yesterday (Friday, August 11, 2023): CLR is not drilling any formation they haven’t drilled before.

CLR well nomenclature:

• H: middle Bakken
• H1: Three Forks, First Bench
• H2: Three Forks, Second
• H3: continues
• H4: continues 
• Simple name: H or H1 or rarely, H2 —- standard 1280-acre spacing.

There are no H3 or H4 wells in this oil field, the LCU, IIRC. I don’t think there are any H2 wells, either, in this area, but I could be wrong.

LCU wells are tracked here:

• LCU Jessie/Truman Wells (CLR, Long Creek, CLR's 60-well project)
• LCU Ralph / Reckitt Wells (CLR, Long Creek, CLR's 60-well project)
• the Long Creek Unit.
  

Back to nomenclature.

If there are additional letters attached to the simple H or H1, the well is a section line, 4-section or 2560-acre spacing.

Note: this pertains to CLR. Other operators use other methods to designation section line wells, such as "X" or "LL."

An “S” or an “N” states direction of the lateral because even if it’s a 4-section, the lateral is still only two sections long.

Examples:

• simple, standard, two-section middle Bakken lateral: xxxx-H — middle Bakken, typical 2-mile lateral spaced for 1280 acres.
• simple, standard, two-section Three Forks, first bench lateral: xxxx-H1 — Three Forks, first bench, typical 2-mile lateral spaced for 1280 acres

Now, the names/designations for section line wells:

• simple, standard, section-line middle Bakken lateral: xxx-HSL —- a section line well, typical 2-mile lateral, running south, spaced for 2560 acres, middle Bakken
• simple, standard, two-section Three Forks, first bench lateral: xxx-HNL1 — another section line well, typical 2-mile lateral, running north, spaced for 2560 acres, Three Forks First Bench. The “1” at the end designates it a First Bench, Three Forks well.

To reiterate:

• CLR is drilling same formations in this area that it has drilled for a decade.
• CLR is drilling standard 2-mile laterals in this area, nothing new.

I may have missed an exception and if you think I have send me legal name of well and NDIC file number.

A lot of folks still don’t understand the concept of a two-mile lateral in 4-section spacing.

Years ago, Lynn Helms said, mana-a-Mano, a Three Forks well will be better than a middle Bakke n well.

If I’m wrong on this, and, of course, I’m not (LOL), I would like to hear from a Bakken landman.

A Parting Shot -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45426POLITICS.

This is absolutely fascinating.

To move President Biden out of the way, "the Party" needs to start putting things in motion.

They just have.

If you are not thinking strategically, you are not thinking.

This Is Why I Will Never Quit Blogging -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45425AAPL.

I'm really not interested in "doing" this post, because I won't do it justice, but readers, being as smart as they are, will figure out what I'm trying to say.

First, we start with two simple questions and two simple answers.

For investors.

For the mainstream media.

For young business journalists that don't know much about investing except what they read in books.

Q & A:

• What does Warren Buffett make? Money.

• What does Tim Cook make? iPhones.

******************************
Factoids

Warren Buffett is the oracle of Omaha, the darling of Wall Street, the hero for many mom-and-pop investors.

Tim Cook: not so much. 

*************************
Discussion

I will never convince anyone of this, but when looking at the whole enchilada, as we say down here in Texas, AAPL is a much, much, much better investment than BRK for the investor with a long horizon, say 30 years. I would have said the but grammatically that might not have been correct.

Warren Buffett would probably agree. In the last few years, Warren Buffett has  bought a whole lot more AAPL stock than he has purchased / bought back his own BKR stock. If BRK was/were such a great investment for the long term, he would be re-purchasing / buying back more BRK stock and buying less AAPL (or selling off what he has of AAPL to buy more BRK). Wow, what a grammatically-messing paragraph but you get the point.

But I digress.

Back to the two questions.

• What does Warren Buffett make? Money.

• What does Tim Cook make? iPhones.

People understand "money" and they love to see how much how money Warren Buffett is making and that drives them to buy more BKR -- which is now sitting at all time-highs and keeps growing.

Meanwhile, when the headlines roared that iPhones sales were off for Apple this last quarter, folks panicked, sold out, and watched AAPL drop from $195 to $175 almost overnight. [Wow, did I take advantage of that! But I digress.]

****************************
iPhones

Over at sites where folks talk about iPhones, the big news right now -- and I kid you not -- is this: where Apple is going to "move" the "END CALL" icon on the iPhone. 

Some young journalist wrote a whole article on that and was concerned that iPhone users would not be able to adjust. OMG.

• What does Warren Buffett make? Money.

• What does Tim Cook make? iPhones.

LOL.

************************
The Insanity

These were all headline stories at NBC, CBS, and ABC two days ago: Apple is moving the "END CALL" button on the iPhone. To a more-ergonomically-friendly location.

Screenshots:

*******************
Q & A

What does Warren Buffett make? Money.

What does Tim Cook make? iPhones.

Covid-19 Update -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45424COVID.

Right now, on a per capita basis, it looks like Minnesota is #1 in the nation for new Covid-19 cases. North Dakota is #2, for new cases.

The data is not all in and I only checked a few states, but I'm either correct, or very, very close. There are folks starting to talk about mandatory masking again as we move into the new school year. 

Among the states, Texas and Florida lead the nation in number of active cases. In our extended family of seven members, here in north Texas, three are symptomatic consistent with Covid-19. One has tested positive, but the other two won't be tested.

SRE: RNG -- California -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45423RNG.

5,000,000,000 cubic feet  / 5,800 cubic feet = a BOE of natural gas = 862,069 boe / 365 = 2,400 boepd. 

Assuming I did the math correctly, a huge assumption, 2,400 boepd seems like a very, very small amount of production for the "cost" of seeing this project completed.

Apple's 3nm Chip For The New iPhone -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45422OIL.

Link here. 

Global Crude Oil Demand -- 2024 Estimates -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45421OIL.

This is amazing.

From a reader earlier this morning, link here.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Wow, I had not seen that ... it went from 98 to 99 and then to 100 pretty quickly; most folks did not notice (and certainly SecEnergy Granholm did not notice).

Recently the forecast was for 102, so this prediction of 104.25 is quite incredible. I still think the COP purchase of Athabasca is the energy story of the year, so far, for investors.

WTI today: $83.17. 

*******************************
The Book Page

No library outing today. At least not for now.

If you like coffee-table books, or interior decorating, or Frank Lloyd Wright, or Amish furniture or Mission-Style furniture or Stickley furniture, one needs to have these two books in one's personal library. Absolutely gorgeous books. 

Our small apartment has many Stickley pieces. Whoo-hoo! 

When May and I die, our Stickley pieces will be stored in environmentally-controlled storage until the "MDW Memorial Bungalow" on Flathead Lake, MT, is completed.

EV 101 -- August 10, 2023

Locator: 45415B. 

 Updates

December 10, 2023: nice update.

August 27, 2023: tech writer for The WSJ buys an EV for the family. The "buying experience" here at "YouTube." Exactly why EVs will not catch on for a long, long time.

Original Post

I know very little about car engines, but when shopping for a new car, all I need to know is mpg. One number. Okay, two: city / highway.

• I never ask about range
• I never ask about the kind of pump I need to use
  

I know nothing about electricity and nothing about EVs, but when shopping for a new car, I need to know:

• type of connector
• type of charging station
  
• the size of the tire which affects range
• range on a fully charged battery (see below)
• a very cold day
• a “normal” day
• a very hot day
• level charging station: level 1, 2, or 3
• how long does it take to fully charge the vehicle
• how do I know when it is optimally charged? What is the optimal charging range?
  
• advertised range vs actual range (this is more relevant than you will ever realize until after you’ve bought the car);

This is how I understand it (right, wrong, or indifferent) now. This is how I would explain it to Sophia, subject to editing, correcting, and adding more information as I get a better understanding and as technology, batteries, charging stations evolve over time.

The links:

• EVs: the difference between kW and kWh;
• scam: $115,000 Ford Lightning: link here.
• EV energy ratings. Link here. 
• EVs with longest range; depends on size of the tires: 18"; 19"; 20"; 21"
• there are 70 cars in this list, supposedly every EV available, ranked worse to best "efficiency"
• #70: the worst: the 2021 Hyundai IONIQ Electric
• #62: the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV
• #54: the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV
• #1, the best: 2022 Audi 3-tron S 21"
• #3, third best, the 2022 Rivian R1S (large pack) 21"
• among the top 12: Audi (4); Rivian (2); Porsche Taycan / Taycan (6)
• charging your EV;
• charging stations;
• level 1 vs level 2 charging stations;

This is the most important graphic. It doesn't require any understanding of anything; just keep the graphic in you mind. 

What to note in the graph:

• the left side of the graph/chart: 
• the charging stations you see in parking lots around town
• measured in kW (you don't even have to know what a kW is -- just know that's how EV charging station ports are "rated;
• in the example: one charging port is rated at 7.5 kW; the other charting port is rated at 60 kW
• some existing ports are now rated higher than 60 kW
• as time goes on, the ratings will increase in size (power)the right side of the chart:
• this is your car, your EV
• when you talk to your dealer or to you friend, you will ask about / talk about the "size of the battery" or the "battery's energy" -- or whatever the phrase is
• if you don't have much money, the EV you buy will have a battery with a lower energy rating, such as 15 kWh in this example;
• if you are rich, you will be able to afford an EV with a "bigger battery" -- such as 120 kWh in this example
• like most things in life (but not golf scores), bigger is better
• buy the "biggest" EV you can afford

Charging: in the graph above -- 

• when you pull into a charging station, the greater the rating of the charging station, in this case 7.5 vs 56, the faster you can charge your EV
• so, why doesn't everyone just plug into the the charging port / station with the higher / highest rating, 56 in this case
• you can't plug your cheap little EV into a charging station that has too much power for your little pathetic EV
• so, in the example above, if your pathetic little EV is rated at 15 kWh, it cannot plug into a charging unit with a higher rating. 
• so, in the example above, you can only plug your 15-kWh-rated pathetic little EV into the 7.5-kW-rated charging port / station

And that's all you need to know.

Except for this, in the graph above: the small print.

In the graphic above, the bigger car rated at 120kWh pulls up to the charging unit rated at 60kW. The car takes a charge for two hours. Two (2) hrs x 60 kW = 120 kWh which is what the bigger car in the graph above is rated. 

So, a "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh can be fully charged in two hours if plugged into a charger rated at 60 kW.

If that "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh pulls into a charging station rated at 7.5 kW, it will take .... 120 / 7.5  = 16 hours to fully charge.

Okay, so that's all you need to know.

But there's a lot more one can know if one is interested.

We shouldn't have to say this but an EV rated at 120 kWH can "last longer" (longer range, all things being equal) than a pathetic little EV rated at 15 kWh.

 

*******************************
Charging Stations

Level 1 vs level 2 vs level 3 charging stations

 

Level 1

• 120 volts — AC
• your garage
• absolutely worthless

Level 2

• 240 volts — AC
• can be installed in your garage
• In the Target parking lot
• at 60 kW, two hours to “achieve” 120 kWh, so four hours to fully charge a soccer mom’s SUV

Level 3

• 480 volts — DC
• not at your house, ever

************************
Connectors

 

Connector type: non-Tesla

• J1772: level 1 and level 2
• CCS1: level 3

NCAS for all Tesla models: link here.

***************************
Miscellaneous

Other facts / factoids / opinions / comments:

• hybrids are fake EVs -- they are the worst thing one can buy in the "EV family" but Ford is now transitioning to hybrids ... more on that later. Ford will sell a lot of hybrids, as well as Toyota will. That's good for the car companies but bad for you; really bad for the roads (but you won't care about that); and really, really, bad for the environment (again, something you won't care about. You will be happy just knowing that you are part of the EV community.
• Ford is "going all out" with hybrids. Link here.
• charging stations prone to “breaking down”; generally, outside of big cities, if the charging station you visit is “out of order,” you are really “out of luck.” If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.

A Most Amazing Graph -- FRED -- Eggs -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45420FAKEINF.
Locator: 45420EGGS.
Locator: 45420RETAIL.

Updates

Later, 9:28 a.m. CDT: I just got back from Walmart -- a bicycle trip -- it's already 88°F and feels like 100! Whatever. Eggs: a dozen, white, fresh, large, grade A, from badly-treated chickens for $1.22. Had I wanted, I could have paid $5.72 for a dozen "organic, free-range" eggs. No thanks.

Every time I go to Walmart I'm reminded how much better it is than Target, just down the street and slightly closer to home. Walmart:

• is currently remodeling their home and garden section; will be very, very nice;
• has just re-done their parking lot; looks awesome
• is much less crowded during "off-hours" than Target during "busy hours"; 
• never seems to run out of anything; and,
• best of all -- no waiting to pay (compare with long lines at Target) -- so many self-pay stations.

I was looking for a single one-inch white binder: a pack of four, recently $12.21, was "rolled back to $8.48, easily beating the price at Target.

Starbucks: I haven't been to "our" Starbucks in over a month (?). But biking home from Walmart, I biked too closely to Starbucks; touched the "Starbucks horizon event" and was sucked in, unable to escape the gravitational pull despite my speed on the bike. 

Inflation: so, anyway, back to the eggs. This is why the government has to remove food and energy from the CPI -- see below -- the government says eggs are priced at $2.09 right now and I can find them easily for $1.22. 

Later I will stop by Target and see the price for eggs.

Belk: my wife took two of the granddaughters to shop for back-to-school clothes yesterday. Her haul:

Amazon: simply amazing. Between Walmart and Amazon, I can pretty much get anything I want / need. I was introduced to this amazing soy sauce about a year when visiting Portland, OR. At the "spice" shop, it retailed for $50. Through Amazon, I get the soy sauce overnight, no shipping costs, for $27. Lasts me about six months. I use it sparingly.

Original Post

Avian flu. 

Link here.

The blog forecast this over a year ago.

Note: this includes all variety of eggs, including the incredibly expensive "organic" (whatever that means, cage-free, and free-range. In our neck of the neighborhood, "organic, cage-free, free-range eggs go for upwards of $6.00 / dozen.

Memo to self: check out the price of eggs at Walmart and Target, and report back.

PPI: Up More Than Expected In July, 2023

Locator: 45419INF.

Headline:

Link here:

July’s producer price index rose 0.3% from the previous month. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the report, which gauges the prices wholesalers pay for raw goods, to increase 0.2% month over month.

EVS -- An Unmitigated Disaster -- An Update -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45418EVS.

I'm in the process of "doing" an "EV 101" post -- I may get around to posting it this weekend, but unlikely. Stay tuned.

For today, this -- as part of the "EVs -- An Unmitigated Disaster" series. The updates are a "cut and paste" from one of my other blogs.

**************************

Updates

August 11, 2023: GM unveils their new 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ:

• range: 450 miles
• 24-module battery: 200 kWh
• using the 800-volt DC fast charger: 100 miles range in 10 minutes
• this is the quickest form of charging currently available
• more power than the current supercharged V-8 SUV Cadillac Escalade
• starts at $130,000 vs average price off $115,000 for the ICE version
• Cadillac's first major step into the traditional vehicle lineup as an EV
• distinguishes it from Cadillac's Lyriq and Celestiq EVs
• Cadillac plans to make its entire lineup electric by 2040
• Escalade's current profit margins: 30%
• will be produced at a Detroit factory alongside the GMC Hummer EV, the Chevrolet Silveraado EV, and the Cruise Origin Shuttle EV
• the ICE version will continue to be manufactured at GM's Arlington Assembly in Texas.
• Escalade IQ sales likely to ramp up toward the end of the decade
• larger / more room than current ICE version
• following the announcement, GM shares dropped almost 6% and are falling again, today (August 11, 2023); GM shares are now trading at $34
• one can find headline stories: analysts recommending GM as a buy; in fact, I think Zacks has GM ranked #1 

August 11, 2023: Ford will transition to fake EVs -- hybrids -- for now -- just announced this week -- will cut back on BEVs -- losing too much money -- Ford will use hybrids as the transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs; it's very clear from the CEO's remarks that no one at Ford really believes in fake EVs but they are facing a financial disaster; Shares: down almost 5% after the announcement, now trading at $12.15.

Over The Past Five Years, 70% Return Vs 500% Return -- August 11, 2023

Locator: 45417TECH.

Yes, I know, past results are no indication of future returns, or however the saying goes, but it amazes me that folks settle for 4.5% APR when there are so many other interesting opportunities out there. I find it amazing that financial advisors, apparently, are advising their clients to put their cash into MMFs, apparently.

Whistling past the cemetery.

I've held shares in both companies for well over five years. Although BRK gets a lot of attention and I kind of know what BRK is doing year-to-year, I haven't looked at AMD in years, so I was curious, after seeing AMD on the cover of Forbes in the current issue.

I "lucked" into AMD some years ago. Long story. 

AMD:

BRK:

It's "out-of-cycle" with regard to my investing program but I will be adding to my AMD position today. Opportunities like this don't happen often.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

I have a large position in both AMD and BRK-B, both of which I've had for many year. I have added to the BRK-B position on a regular basis but have not added to AMD for awhile. No recommendation. It's one of a number off tech-related stocks which interest me.

TGIF -- August 10, 2023

Locator: 45416B.

China: deflation. Biggest story of the week, global economy.

Natural gas: this isn't the only reason prices are rising --

STR: well this is nice. I remember buying shares in STR for the dividend awhile back. I have no idea how many shares I own. Don't care. For the grandchildren, but this was a nice little note to see:

Cummins: this was nice to see. I am accumulating CMI as fast as I can. Cummins is in my infrastructure bucket / EV bucket. This is all about hydrogen and another company that has my interest. I would talk about it, but this is not an investment site.

 ***************************

Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.23

Sunday, August 13, 2023: 23 for the month; 225 for the quarter, 480 for the year
39571, conf, Challenger Point Energy, Jacobsen 11-6, 
39491, conf, Kraken, Ricky-Lee LE 18-7-6- 11H, 
38905, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-4HH,

Saturday, August 12, 2023: 20 for the month; 222 for the quarter, 477 for the yea
39492, conf, Kraken, Anseth LW 20-29-32-12H, 
39454, conf, CLR, Edward 2-23HSL1, 

Friday, August 11, 2023: 18 for the month; 220 for the quarter, 475 for the year
39567, conf, CLR, Edward 3-23H, 

RBN Energy: hydrogen's colors hog the spotlight, but tax credit puts focus on carbon intensity. Archived.

Clean hydrogen’s supporters often tout its growth potential, boosted in no small way by the billions of dollars in federal subsidies that will soon go toward supporting the buildout of an extensive series of regional hubs across the U.S. Clean hydrogen has its share of detractors, too, who question how much of a fixture it can become in the U.S. energy mix and wonder about its reliance on all those federal subsidies. But there’s one thing just about everyone seems to agree on — nobody likes the seemingly ubiquitous hydrogen color scheme, with arguments that it is too simplistic, has become too politicized, and puts the industry’s focus on the wrong things. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the limitations of the hydrogen color scheme, the risks of relying on it too extensively, and how the new tax credit for clean hydrogen puts the focus on carbon intensity (CI) instead.