A Closer Look At the Kraken Double Eagle Wells In Sanish Oil Field -- July 1, 2020

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

Is anyone interested in the Kraken Double Eagle wells that came off confidential list today? There are three Double Eagle wells on the pad; two came off the confidential list today; the third was released earlier.

• 36787, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagle 33-3-3TFH, Sanish, t--; cum 88K after four months;
• 36786, drl/A, Kraken Double Eagle 33-3 2H, Sanish, t--; cum 146K after four months; 48K month;

First, where are they? See this post. This is where these wells will be tracked.

Production:

• 36787, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagle 33-3-3TFH, API: 33-061-04544; Sanish, t--; cum 88K after four months; fracked 11/27/2019 - 12/14/2019; 13.76 million gallons of water; 82% water by mass; friction reducer: 0. 0539;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	30	14697	14756	29178	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	19130	19158	36570	17218	8012	8865
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	23934	24067	52225	23934	2095	21467
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	26405	26380	64950	31536	724	30435
BAKKEN	1-2020	24	18402	17764	49012	19783	4135	15299
BAKKEN	12-2019	3	55	0	1015	49	2	3

• 36786, drl/A, Kraken Double Eagle 33-3 2H, API: 33-061-04543; Sanish, t--; cum 146K after four months; 48K month; fracked 11/27/2019 - 12/14/2019; 11.53 million gallons of water; 82% water by mass; friction reducer: 0. 0506;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	20803	20873	21755	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	26231	25877	26873	24920	16422	8153
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	38993	39291	41965	38994	3924	34698
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	48418	48227	58895	59849	1330	58142
BAKKEN	1-2020	28	31889	31582	48285	33998	8619	24976
BAKKEN	12-2019	3	253	0	1055	247	31	172

• 36785, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagle 33-3 1H, 33-061-04542, Sanish, t--; cum 113K 4/20; fracked 11/27/2019 - 12/12/2019; 9.4 million gallons of water; 83.9% water by mass; friction reducer: 0.04685;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	14034	13817	15285	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	17497	17458	17887	15748	12068	3335
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	27160	27494	28925	27160	2905	23883
BAKKEN	2-2020	26	29660	29536	35366	36969	406	36227
BAKKEN	1-2020	29	24717	24498	41165	25800	5757	19628
BAKKEN	12-2019	3	318	0	688	420	354	22

From the file reports.

36786:

• second of three wells to be drilled on this pad (sic)
• spud: 9/17/2019
• TD: 11/1/2019
• total depth: 21,448'
• a toe-up, three-string, double section lateral
• target: middle Bakken
• target zone: 10' thick between 22' and 32" below the top of the middle Bakken;
• big rig: began at 0714 hours, October 17, 2019, at 8,300' MD
• KOP: began at 9,760'; begun at 0712 hours, October 28, 2019
• middle Bakken
• encountered at 10,345'MD; landing depth reached at 1442 hours, October 28, 2019 (wow)
• lateral:
• began at 1952 CT, OCtober 29, 2019
• without incident, drilling continued to TD of 21,448' MD; reached at 1704 hours, November 1, 2019;
• gas shows: 1956 units at 10405' in the middle Bakken
• lateral in the target zone (see above)

36787:

• second of three wells to be drilled on this pad (sic)
• spud: 9/18/2019
• TD: 11/12/2019
• total depth: 22,645'
• a toe-up, three-string, double section lateral
• target: Three Forks
• target zone: 10' thick between 20' and 3" below the top of the Three Forks;
• big rig: began 0817 hours, November 5, 2019, at 8,300' MD
• KOP: began at 0245 hours, November 6, 2019
• encountered the Three forks at 10,459' MD at 1241 hours, November 6, 2019
• lateral: began at 2252 hours CT November 7, 2019
• drilling continued to a depth of 15,741' MD reached at 0851 hours CT, November 9, 2019;
• BHA tripped; changes; drilling resumed that day; 
• drilling until 19.204' MD, then tripped again;
• finally reached 22,645' MD at 1940 hours on November 12, 2019 (wow)
• TD reached about 1.04' below the top of the target zone (wow)
• gas units as high as 1372 units at 10435' MD in the vertical and the curve, in the lower Bakken;
• gas shows: gas units as high as 1913 unit at 19276' MD

36875:

• second of three wells to be drilled on this pad (sic)
• spud: 9/16/2019
• TD: 10/23/2019
• TD: 19,955' MD
• a toe-up, three-string, double section lateral
• target: middle Bakken
• target zone: 10' thick between 20' and 30" below the top of the middle Bakken;
• drilling similar to above
• KOP, building the curve, landing: required two BHAs; 12 hours;
• lateral: look at this, if no typos --
• began 0704 hours, October 21, 2019
• reached TD of 19,955' at 0614 hours on October 23, 2019
• one hour short of two full days!!! -- I'll tag this post with "records"
• gas units: a high of 2491 units at 18157' MD
• geosteering: 10' target located between 22' and 25' (sic) below the top of the middle Bakken

Notes From All Over -- The Midnight Edition -- July 1, 2020

US crude oil, days of supply: link here. The supply continues to shrink, at least measured in number of days. We're now down to 38.8 days. LOL. Divide by seven days, about six weeks of supply. Two weeks of supply is cutting it close; one doesn't want to see that. About perfect is three weeks, or 21 days. Anything over four weeks (28 days) is "ludicrous," as Elon Musk would say. So, yes, six weeks of supply is ludicrous.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Taking a page out of Apple's marketing strategy:

Talk about a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. A few days ago, Apple (AAPL) would have also been in the headline:

The "thing" that will drive this recovery, or keep it going: professional sports. The faster professional sports gets back to televising live events (with or without fans, it doesn't matter), the faster Americans will get the feeling that things are getting better. So much of this is perception.

Déjà vu all over again. Didn't we just see this exact same thing a few months ago? I remember blogging about it, using this as an example why I do not use iCloud.

Gasoline Demand -- Commentary -- July 1, 2020

From the very beginning of the blog, more than ten years ago, I have been consistent with at least one data point: I have always maintained that if I were allowed to choose only one metric to gauge the American economy -- where it's been, how it’s doing, where it seems to be headed, etc., -- that one metric would be gasoline demand. At least one reader said "diesel" would be a better indicator. Be that as it may: I feel very strongly that if allowed only one metric for the subject at hand, it would be gasoline demand.

Before I go on, look at gasoline demand posted today. Be sure to read the comments. Link here.

It certainly looks like a decent recovery.

But several big states are now seeing a new surge in corona virus cases ... and that could change everything.

It's literally a week-by-week gut check.

Ying and yang.

Push and pull.

Push and push back.

The politicians -- the governors -- will be pushed to "react" to the surge in corona cases.

But the American public is tired of the lock down. And frankly, the percentage of those Americans that won't survive economically increases each week this goes on.

My hunch: the American public will accept almost anything short of another lock down. Social distancing and masks? That's fine. But outright shutting down things again is going to be a very, very hard sell.

Back to gasoline demand.

One would think that the rate of growth in demand (the slope of the line) will now start to slow down a bit.

If the rate of growth actually increases going forward -- a steeper slope, it will speak volumes about the resiliency of the American economy.

If the rate of growth slows appreciably for more than a few weeks, that's going to be very, very concerning.

So, we'll see.

On another note, there is a real, real disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

No New Permits; WTI Remains Below $40 -- July 1, 2020

OPEC:

• production falls to three-decade low
• OPEC basket: still under $40, at $38.22

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$39.82	7/1/2020	07/01/2019	07/01/2018	07/01/2017	07/01/2016
Active Rigs	11	60	67	58	30

No new permits. No reports other than the previously reported wells that came off the confidential list today.

Meridian Refinergy Near Dickinson Gets Okay From ND Supreme Court -- July 1, 2020

Link here.

The North Dakota Supreme Court has sided with state regulators in a challenge to a proposed oil refinery near Theodore Roosevelt National Park in the western part of the state.

In a unanimous opinion, the state’s high court upheld a lower court ruling that affirmed permitting decisions by the Department of Environmental Quality.

The Bismarck Tribune reported Tuesday that the state Supreme Court ruled that the department “did not act arbitrarily, capriciously, or unreasonably in issuing the permit.”
William Prentice, the CEO of Meridian Energy Group, called the ruling “very welcome.” 

In case you missed it, the ruling was unanimous.

********************************

Gasoline Demand

Link here.

Notes From All Over -- The "Surprise" Edition -- July 1, 2020

Surprise, surprise: market volatility.

• futures down
• market opening jumps over a hundred points
• now late-morning, Dow down 60 points
• headline: ADP data disappoints
• hunch: this will be forgotten by 2:00 p.m. EDT this later today
• AAPL: still holding on -- up about half a percent
• TSLA: up 4.4%; up almost $50; apparently sets "new record"; market value surges past Toyota; 

Later, 10:58 a.m. CDT: market turns green -- Pfizer sparks "vaccine hopes." LOL.

On another note, that poll at the sidebar on the right -- which pharmaceutical company would get the government nod -- appears to be a bust. It was posted about three weeks ago when there were reports that the federal government would pick one of five leading pharmaceutical companies to take on the US corona virus vaccine program -- but to date, nothing. So the poll comes down. I've lost interest.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Taxes: no more delays. IRS says "tax filing deadline" won't be extended past July 15, 2020.

TCM: "Government Girl." Wouldn't have posted a note about this show, but it appears Ed Norton channeled Sonny Tufts when Ed Norton spoke about "love" in "Birdman." Amazing. 
The "government girl": Olivia de Havilland. This clip from "Birdman":

*******************************

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Almost forget, EIA weekly data out today.

Link here:

• US crude oil in storage: 535.5 million bbls; a whopping 15% above an already-fat level of storage; down from 16% last week;
• US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping (there's that word again) 7.2 million bbls from the previous week;
• refineries operating at 75.5% capacity; pretty much unchanged;
• jet fuel supplied was down 60.0% compared with same four-week period last year; again, pretty much unchanged
• US crude oil imports, at 6.0 million bpd, the four-week average of 6.5 million bpd
• WTI; immediate reading -- pretty much unchanged

Re-balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage	Above/Below 5-Year Average
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 71	April 8, 2020	15.2	484.4
Week 72	April 15, 2020	19.2	503.6
Week 72	April 22, 2020	15.0	518.6
Week 73	April 29, 2020	9.0	527.6
Week 74	May 6, 2020	4.6	532.2
Week 75	May 13, 2020	-0.7	531.5
Week 76	May 20, 2020	-5.0	526.5
Week 77	May 28, 2020	7.9	534.4
Week 78	June 3, 2020	-2.1	532.3
Week 79	June 10, 2020	5.7	538.1
Week 80	June 17, 2020	1.2	539.3	15%
Week 81	June 24, 2020	1.4	540.7	16%
Week 82	July 1, 2020	-7.2	533.5	15%

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 5	4/11/2020	-39.70%
Week 6	4/18/2020	-53.60%
Week 7	4/24/2020	-61.60%
Week 8	5/1/2020	-66.60%
Week 9	5/8/2020	-68.50%
Week 10	5/15/2020	-67.90%
Week 11	May 22, 2020	-66.60%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	-68.70%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	-63.70%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	-62.30%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	-62.50%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	-60.00%

Imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365	-19.700%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410
Week 9	May 13, 2020	5.4	-0.321	-26.100%
Week 10	May 20, 2020	5.2	-0.194
Week 11	May 28, 2020	7.2	2.000	-16.400%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	6.2	-1.000	-18.300%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000	-13.300%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	6.6	-0.222	-10.000%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	6.5	-0.102	-11.600%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	6.5	-0.600	-11.300%