EVs -- A Passing Fad? January 26, 2024

Locator: 46660EVS.

Themes -- 2024.

EVs: have lost their luster

• 2024 was to have been the break-out year for EVs
• high interest rates and the long UAW strike will push this transition out at least another three years (2027)
• it's obvious that EVs are luxury cars, and Americans are subsidizing rich folks to buy luxury cars
• state governments will realize that lost gasoline tax revenue is a huge problem for highway maintenance, much less new highways

From "MarketWatch" today:

From the linked article:

In the early 1990s, every self-respecting American yuppie and retired suburban couple bought an electric bread maker, with sales hitting 4 million units. But the fad soon faded as these amateur bakers discovered that stuffing a precise quantity and ratio of flour, eggs, butter, yeast and salt into a metal box takes time and costs much more than strolling to the corner bakery.

Are plug-in electric vehicles the bread makers of our day?

I remember those days. I never bought an electric bread maker but for awhile I enjoyed baking my own bread, but that fad ended quickly ...  for the same reasons as noted above.

I no longer care about EVs one way or the other -- I don't know if I ever cared one way or the other -- scratch that -- I actually bought a few TSLA shares not too long ago but quickly thought better of that ...  

Now, I'm simply fascinated to see how this all plays out. 

By the way, my favorite bread now: from Tous Les Jours. Nothing else comes close.

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The Book Page

Just ordered this book. Will arrive Monday.

Arrived:

I wish I had kept a 3 x 5 card of every place I visited in my lifetime. The Hearst Castle would have had a 3 x 5 card -- I visited it with the love of my life at the time -- it must have been back in 1974 or thereabouts. I've wanted to go back many times, but it is so far off the beaten track ....  but wow, what wonderful memories. 

Week 4: January 22, 2024 -- January 28, 2024

Locator: 46659TOPSTORIES.

Top, top story: 

• the US stock market continues hit new all-time highs
• CAT, BRK, as well as major indices hit new all-time highs;
  
• US "economic" numbers continue to surprise analysts
• pending home sales post biggest jump in three years 

Top story: 

• Yemeni Houthis out-smarting US Navy; targeted US Navy ship
  
• regional "wars" everywhere: Gaza, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Ukraine
• all are in somewhat of a "steady state" situation
• with Biden, Americans don't know how good they have it, and Trump is getting all the headlines
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Turkey says "OK" to letting Sweden in as member of NATO
• vote not scheduled
  

Top international energy story:

• Biden places new LNG export terminals on "pause"

Top national non-energy story:

• GOP says ready to anoint Trump as GOP presidential nominee
  
• jury says Trump must pay sexual assault victim $83 million
• Trump says he will appeal
  

Top national energy story:

• Biden places new LNG export terminals on "pause"
• Tesla to invest $500 million to install a Dojo supercomputer in Buffalo, NY 
• more evidence that EVs are losing their luster in the US
  

Focus on fracking: link here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Bakken economy:

Commentary: 

CLR With Ten New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- Friday, January 26, 2024

Locator: 46658B.

Active rigs: 40.

WTI: $ 78.01.

Ten new permits, #40472 - #40481, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (6); Hess (4)
• Fields: Murphy Creek (Dunn County); Wheelock (Williams)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for three Clover wells and three Roadrunner wells, NWNW 15-145-95, 
• to be sited 330 FNL and between 1164 FWL and 1356 FWL;
• Hess. has permits for four GO-John wells, lot 3, section 5-156-98, 
• to be sited between 395 FNL an 527 FNL and 1928 FWL.

Eight permits renewed:

• Foundation Energy Management: three McDonald permits in Roosevelt oil field, Billings County; three Little Mo Federal permits, Ash Coulee, Billings County; and two Audrey permits, Beaver Creek, Golden Valley County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39780, 971, Oasis, Blancet Federal 5603 14-21 4B, Alger, Mountrail, npd;
• 36177, 0, BR, George 2E TFH, Pershing, McKenzie, npd;
• 36178, 209, BR, George 2D MBH, Pershing, McKenzie, npd;
• 36179, 477, BR, George 2C MBH, Pershing, McKenzie, npd;
• 36180, 342, BR, George 2B TFH, Pershing, McKenzie, npd;
• 36181, 120, BR, George 2A MBH, Pershing, McKenzie, npd;

Well of interest:

• 17635, 740, BR, George 1-18H, t3/09; cum 223K 11/23; recently off line; now back on line; too soon to see if any halo effect.

The map:

Seven disposal wells completed.

Berkshire (BRK) Hits An All-Time High -- January 26, 2024

Locator: 46657BRK.

Trump trumped: wow that was fast.  I guess three hours to make sure they had the decimal point in the right place.

It might be wise for the defendant to remain quiet.

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BRK

BRK: hits an all-time high! Remember Travelers from a few weeks ago. That foreshadowed this, along with the Pilot story.

Link here.

Link here.

 From the links above;

Berkshire Hathaway stock hit a record high Wednesday, cheering the company’s legion of investors after shares trailed the S&P 500 index in 2023. Berkshire’s Class A stock was up 1%, at $570,000, while the Class B shares were also 1% higher, at $376.08, in recent trading. 

The move Wednesday takes out the old high from September 2023.

Berkshire stock appears to be getting a lift from several factors: fresh gains in Apple (the company’s largest equity holding), strength in the insurance sector, and expectations of robust fourth-quarter results. T

he company is due to release fourth-quarter earnings and its annual report—along with CEO Warren Buffett’s eagerly anticipated shareholder letter—on February 24, 2024.

Berkshire’s B shares now are up over 5% so far in 2024, double the gain in the S&P 500, after Berkshire trailed the S&P 500’s 26.3% total return in 2023 by about 10 percentage points.

Barron’s picked Berkshire as a top stock selection for 2024 at the end of 2023. Buffett’s roughly 15% stake in the company is worth $123 billion, and the company’s market value is around $822 billion.

 

TGIF -- Quote Of The Day --CAT, BRK Hits An All-Time High -- US Winter "Cold Season" Update -- Friday, January 26, 2024

Locator: 46656INTC.

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BRK

BRK: hits an all-time high! Remember Travelers from a few weeks ago. That foreshadowed this, along with the Pilot story.

Link here.

Link here.

*******************************
CAT

CAT: from last week --

Yesterday:

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Other Headlines

*************************************
US Winter "Cold" Season Update

Link here. 

 

What's Going On With MPC Today? January 26, 2024

Locator: 46655INV.

What's going on with MPC today?

Much could be said, but I'm only interested in the news at noon today with regard to MPC?

Coal Is Dead! Long Live Coal -- Inflation Loss -- January 26, 204

Locator: 46654COAL.

As a huge investor in BRK (think BNSF) and UNP, this is incredibly good news. I'm also a big holder of SRE and I still see this as great, great news.

Link here.

Much could be said. But just not worth the effort. It's no longer an investment story, it's a "religious" or "cult" or "belief" story. 

Link here.

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Inflation Watch

Toilet paper: two comments --

• evidence of deflation; and,
• much of those inflation numbers over the past two years were due to supply chain issues; those supply chain issues have resolved. Prices across the board are going to fall significantly this year all things being equal

The price savings at Walgreen's today is evidence of great marketing, customer loyalty deals, and resolving supply chain issues. 

I've never given much credence to government inflation numbers when folks try to extrapolate those numbers to the individual buyer. American women (who do the majority of retail shopping for the home (?) are experts at looking for best deals.

Exact same product at three different sites during the month of January, 2024.

Prices, January, 2024:

• Kroger: $10.99 (considered by us to be low cost of the six grocery stores in our immediate area)
• Amazon: $7.99 (free delivery)
• Walgreen's: $5 (special; weekly sale; one week sale; two for $10, otherwise, $6.99)
  

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The Blue House 

Link here.

Cheong Wa Dae lit. 'Cyan-tile Pavilion'), also known as the Blue House in English, is a public park that formerly served as the presidential residence and the diplomatic reception halls of South Korea from 1948 to 2022.

It is located in the Jongno district of the South Korean capital Seoul.

Cheong Wa Dae is a complex of multiple buildings built largely in the traditional Korean architectural style with some modern architectural elements and facilities. Cheong Wa Dae now consists of the Main Office Hall Bon-gwan,[a] the Presidential Residence, the State Reception House Yeongbin-gwan,[b] the Chunchu-gwan,[c] Press Hall, and the Secretariat Buildings. The entire complex covers approximately 62 acres. 

The South Korean presidential complex was protected by members of the South Korean special forces.

Sophia, our youngest granddaughter, is now taking jiu-jitsu instruction from a world martial arts competitor who was once a soldier in the South Korean "special forces” assigned to protect the Blue House.

Whoo-hoo! Think "Jedi." [Star Wars.] Or a "visible" Ninja.

My Favorite Chart -- January 26, 2024

Locator: 46653ECON.

My favorite chart.

Link here.

Link here.

Sara Eisen On A Harvard Board Member; Sara Eisen On EVs -- January 26, 2024

Locator: 46652HARVARD.

Harvard's new motto: It Depends.

I never thought Ms Eisen was "political" but this changes my opinion. And I already thought she was the best interviewer on CNBC. For me, this tweet has raised the bar among the  "credible" anchors / talking heads / interviewers on CNBC. 

Carl Qintanilla, CNBC, also tweets infrequently but is always spot on.

I saw this interview live on CNBC. The comments by the guests were awful. The founders of this new company came off as shysters. The elder mentor was tone deaf and was obviously a close friend and supporter of Ms Gay, the self-admitted plagiarizer.

Sara Eisen:

My takeaway: it's hard to believe this doofus once headed AMEX.

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Sara Eisen On EVs

She recently sold her EV (probably a Tesla but unstated) -- live interview, 10:25 a.m., Friday, January 26, 2024.

I missed how long she had the EV but it seems she said three years, I could be wrong.

The only reason to have a garage in NYC is to charge an EV -- paraphrasing what she said.

It costs $700 / month for a garage in NYC. It's free to park on the street. 

The Eisens sold their EV: she did not give all the reasons for selling the EV, but one reason for selling the EV: saving $700 / month.  She made that sound like the main reason for selling the EV, but I doubt that was the whole story or the sole reason.

Wow.

So, Where Are The "Samurai Six" Today? Have We Already Moved To The "AI Five"? January 26, 2024

Locator: 46651INV.

The "Samurai Six" are the "Magnificent Seven Minus Tesla." Jim Cramer popularized both phrases and the components of each group. 

Jim Cramer says that if he had to add another to the SS to get back to the MS, he might add Broadcom (AVGO).

From another analyst, the "AI Five":

Personal investing: 

• added to my SNAP position, one of the twenty tickers in my "investment buckets." It's the only ticker in my "short term / watch / speculative / mover" bucket. It will be held no longer than eight months at which time it is re-evaluated. [Later: just after making this "buy," Josh (my favorite analyst on CNBC) said he also bought more "today."]
  

Apple -- AAPL -- Friday, January 26, 2024

Locator: 46650APPLE.

Sooooo, Apple is spending billions to "improve Siri"? LOL.

I don't think this article says much but I may be missing something. For the archives.

From Computerworld: 

From the linked article, Apple joins the AI arms race;

The company saw insanely great success, deep failure, came close to collapse and then rose all over again. The human-centered principles inherent to the Mac user interface were later carried over to Apple’s mobile products such as its notebook, iPod, iPhone, iPad, and most recently, Vision Pro. The OS continued to improve, too, and that on-screen “Hello” became Siri — which is itself poised to rise again.

Siri seems to have fallen behind rivals, something Apple doesn’t want to see. So, the company is making significant investment in artificial intelligence (AI) to put Siri on steroids. Citing Pitchbook data, a Financial Times report claims Apple has acquired 21 AI start-ups since the beginning of 2017 and seemingly confirms that one of the main aims of the research is to put AI on mobile devices, most likely with iOS 18 later this year.

Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives expects more news, predicting Apple will make a sizeable acquisition in the space this year. “There’s an AI arms race going on, and Apple is not going to be on the outside looking in,” he told FT.

Evidence Apple is accelerating its efforts continues to percolate. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring described Apple’s “Edge AI” opportunity in an extensive note to clients. “We believe Apple's efforts to bring these features to market are accelerating, increasingly the likelihood of an "AI iPhone" launch as soon as Fall 2024,” he wrote.

“For example, the mix of Apple job postings for Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing roles continue to increase, with Deep Learning appearing in 49% of Apple's AI jobs postings, and NLP appearing in 23% of postings.”

So, what's it aall about?

The scalp Apple seems to want is to create an on-device generative AI solution. Existing systems, even on mobile devices, rely on cloud-based AI, which drives up the cost per query. Apple seemingly hopes to exploit the Neural Engine on its powerful existing chips alongside its own innovations (including MLX and "Ferret") to enable on-device intelligence at least partially.

This, of course, extends to Siri and suggests that in the not-so-distant future, when you turn on your Mac, you’ll be greeted by a spoken “hello” from a computer that through a combination of GenAI LLM models and machine vision intelligence has something like automated consciousness. (Ferret is interesting because it translates what it sees into words, which can then be used to drive LLM models — perhaps one day a little like Georgie La Forge’s glasses.)

Intel -- INTC -- Friday, January 26, 2024

Locator: 46649INTC.

We're going to start slow this morning. So much news starting at 4:30 a.m. this morning -- it's just overwhelming. So instead of trying to catch up, I'm just going to go slow and get moving later.

But to start, the two big stories in business / investing this past three months: Hertz and Intel.

OMG. [Note: this is not a ticker symbol.]

And both stories were 1000% predictable. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

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Intel -- INTC

I do not know if the following is real, fake, parody, AI-generated, deep-fake, or Jensen Huang's commentary, but it is what it is over at twitter. It is from a very, very credible source, "Earnings Whispers."

From Barron's:

We'll get the CNBC blurb later today but based on the live commentary, it's going to be awful.

I've blogged about Intel for at least a year, but this might be as good as any from the past: 2 nm chips by 2026.  AAPL and TSM. Intel gave up at 10 nm.

Going forward, Intel's self-acknowledged "bar to beat": AMD. 

So, a year or two from now, we can compare INTC with AMD.

And, oh by the way, I forgot that INTC cut its dividend by half (?) a year ago.

Jim Cramer on iNTC recently.

The Oasis Bergem Wells Are Spectacular -- January 26, 2024

Locator: 46648B.

We're going to start slow this morning. So much news starting at 4:30 a.m. this morning -- it's just overwhelming. So instead of trying to catch up, I'm just going to go slow and get moving later.

But to start, the two big stories in business / investing this past three months: Hertz and Intel.

OMG. [Note: this is not a ticker symbol.]

And both stories were 1000% predictable. 

AMEX: earnings huge. Visa had a great quarter, also. Again, all predictable.

RACE: up at the open. Up $3.90 / share. Whoo-hoo!

Nuclear: this is almost laughable -- putting doors on an airplane -- we're looking at you Boeing -- is kid's play compared to building small nuclear reactors (all the rage now, and going nowhere) -- and investors wonder why folks don't want small nuclear reactors in their backyards. LOL. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $76.78.

Sunday, January 28, 2024: 51 for the month; 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year
39725, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HT,
39152, conf, Hess, RS-F Armour-156-92-1224H-2,
39050, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 3T,
39049, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 2B,

The Oasis Bergem wells are tracked here. The two new ones, spectacular:

• 39050:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2023	31872	40972
10-2023	32651	41847
9-2023	34506	44641
8-2023	30179	36817

• 39049:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2023	40118	52333
10-2023	36736	47263
9-2023	34656	44336
8-2023	34842	47437

Saturday, January 27, 2024: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year
40041, conf,  CLR, Quale Federal 4-1H,
35367, conf, Enerplus, Possum 152-94-23CH-TF2,

Friday, January 26, 2024: 45 for the month; 45 for the quarter, 45 for the year
35368, conf, Enerplus, Bandicoot 152-94-23CH-TF1,

RBN Energy: Sunoco LP's $7.3 billion deal to acquire NuStar Energy.

A lot of energy-industry M&A activity lately has been focused on the acquiring company gaining scale in a shale play or region where it’s already very active, usually the Permian. The latest multibillion-dollar deal in the energy space is different: Sunoco LP (stock ticker symbol SUN), which is primarily involved in fuel distribution east of the Mississippi and in Texas, is buying NuStar Energy (ticker NS), a midstream company with a mix of pipelines (crude oil, products and ammonia) and terminals, most of them within the U.S.’s midsection. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the combined company will have a massive footprint, with all kinds of opportunities for synergies and growth.