One New Permit; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed; Two Wells Showing Halo Effect -- February 16, 2023

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $75.80.

Natural gas: $2.348.

One new permit, #39665:

• Operator: WPX Energy
• Field: McGregory Buttes (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• WPX has a permit for a Cumulus well, SWSE 33-148-93; McGregory Buttes
• to be sited 682 FSL and 2560 FEL;

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed 

• 29781, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
• 29782, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-20 2H, Stockyard Creek, 12K over 12 days; 
• 29783, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 3TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
• 29784, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 4H, Stockyard Creek, 24K over 18 days, 

Well of interest near the Gallowell:

• 22044, 700, Zavanna, George 19-20 1H, Stockyard Creek, t10/12; cum 591K 12/22;

BAKKEN	1-2020	31	7583	7406	8356	30550	12008	2065
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	11262	10159	12784	36382	17570	403
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	12361	12352	13368	33279	18093	35
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	11160	11196	13340	30485	15585	892
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	13606	13079	17927	30935	15523	1606
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	13117	12458	23146	29601	13844	2627
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	10493	9604	27184	19742	11788	1416
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	6884	6371	34181	8450	6318	1685
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	477	45	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	8	163	87	4441	142	17	36
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	3912	3912	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	25	1892	2107	1580	2041	1481	187
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	3352	3208	2283	4409	3912	35
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2874	2826	2310	3606	3133	26
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2902	3126	2489	3457	2870	125
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2715	2608	2383	3252	2403	432
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	3132	3150	2294	3629	2955	212

Other DUCcs reported today as completed:

• 38709, 1,720, MRO, Comstock 14-8TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 105K 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	18076	18079	17095	16079	15066	675
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	20055	20039	20261	16907	15717	781
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	25522	25531	36419	15896	14337	1253
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	25164	25102	45187	15609	15363	7
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	16263	16044	48070	12940	12561	146

• 38710, 4,534, MRO, Yockim 14-8H, Bailey, t--; cum 172K 12/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	24104	24090	13981	20259	18965	850
BAKKEN	11-2022	28	25506	25500	15774	20321	18870	937
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	33729	33771	25664	21700	19580	1712
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	35995	36181	29870	30155	29680	14
BAKKEN	8-2022	25	43619	43548	50203	30460	29568	343
BAKKEN	7-2022	3	8846	8329	10307	5495	4660	482

• 38572, 2,468, MRO, Ithmar 41-13TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 131K 12/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	9892	9872	12532	11892	11339	53
BAKKEN	11-2022	28	9547	9484	13451	11568	10022	1111
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	12557	12534	18711	19009	16291	2216
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15274	15226	24145	19024	18736	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	20212	20146	29923	18971	18636	22
BAKKEN	7-2022	23	15626	15680	30706	13175	12939	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	22138	22059	50235	16724	16008	386
BAKKEN	5-2022	13	9600	9812	24322	7825	6979	140
BAKKEN	4-2022	14	16140	15873	38284	12353	10856	310

• 38573, 3,740, MRO, Austin 11-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 3K over 13 days:
• 38574, 2,870, MRO, Beau 11-18TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 144K 12/22:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	13	3113	3240	5079	3266	3102	14
BAKKEN	11-2022	28	7529	7507	10612	11993	10457	1160
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	11507	11525	16120	15343	13117	1784
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	17060	16978	23175	21362	21038	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	18724	18717	25435	19784	19425	33
BAKKEN	7-2022	30	25148	25195	37528	20404	20039	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	28858	28864	47908	21827	20901	495
BAKKEN	5-2022	29	31446	31281	54627	23581	21100	263
BAKKEN	4-2022	22	985	969	2311	609	528	0

Population Talk -- February 16, 2023

From MSN:

The California exodus has shown no sign of slowing down as the state's population dropped by more than 500,000 people between April 2020 and July 2022, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by nearly 700,000.

The population decrease was second only to New York, which lost about 15,000 more people than California, census data show.

California gained about 157,000 more people from natural change — the difference in number between births and deaths — than New York did, making New York's total population loss greater. 

Hold that thought.

From the LA Times today:

Statistics: as usual, no denominator. For the record:

• population, California: 40 million
• over two years, April 2020 -- July 2022, population drops 500,000
• percentage change: - 500 / 4,000 = - 1.25% over more than two years
• predominantly affect the big cities (Los Angeles?)

Southern surge:

• historically, "runs" around 50,000"encounters" on a monthly basis;
• this past year, trending toward 250,000 "encounters" on a monthly basis;
• conservatively speaking; once "Covid-19 emergency order" lifted on May 11, 2023, it is estimated the numbers at the southern border will trend toward 300,000 / month = 3.6 million per year

Hold that thought.

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Peter Zeihan On Global Population Decrease

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British Royalty 

What are the odds? LOL. 

While in Portland, OR, last week I picked up a memoir/biography of the "real" Downton Abbey by the Countess of Carnarvon, c. 2011.

I learned a lot about how a modern castle is run. 

Well, of all things, in the current issue of The New Yorker, another what-appears-to-be-a-very-similar memoir, this time a book review by Rebecca Mead, "The Merry Widow." 

The book is Lady in Waiting, Anne GGlenconner, c. 2019. A follow-on book Whatever Next is due out this month, February 2023. 

At ninety years of age, Lady Anne / Lady Glenconner is the oldest living aristocratic widow in the world. 

 In 2019, Lady Anne—Anne Glenconner, as she is known today—published a memoir, Lady in Waiting, that detailed not only her childhood at Holkham Hall but also her decades as a friend and companion to Princess Margaret, the younger sister of Queen Elizabeth II. 

Lady in Waiting, which became a surprise best-seller in the U.K. and has been translated into eleven languages, describes the peculiar privileges and rituals of England’s landed aristocracy from the perspective of a wry insider. It gives an unusually candid depiction of life in the upper echelon of British society at a time when the centuries-old peerage has been partly superseded by newer aristocracies—those of global celebrity and freshly generated wealth.

 I've just begun the six-page essay which already sounds very much like the memoir by thee Countess of Carnarvon. What are the odds that less than a week after picking up a memoir of "Downton Abbey," I come across a similar book reviewed in the current issue of The New Yorker? What a hoot. 

If healthy enough and strong enough, perhaps Lady Glenconner will be at the coronation in May.

Director's Cut -- December, 2022

Link here.

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

November, 2022, data posted. 

Record.

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here. 

From novilabs, link here

Crude oil production in round numbers:

• North Dakota: 1 million bopd
• New Mexico: 1.5 million bopd

Gas capture, statewide: 94%.

Offline:

December, 2022:

• completed: 104 (preliminary)
• inactive: 2,613 (an increase of 15%)
  
• DUCS: 450 (a less-than- 1% decrease)
  
• total off line for operational reasons: 3,063 (a 13% increase)
  
• producing:17,230 (a decrease of 2%)
  

November, 2022:

• completed: 58 (preliminary)
• inactive: 2,271 (a decrease of 20%)
  
• DUCS: 447 (a 9% decrease)
  
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,718 (a 14% increase)
  
• producing:17,580
  

Algae (As In Renewable Energy) And M.C.C. -- February 16, 2023

Wow, I'm in a great mood. 

I'm way behind, and I may not get to all these stories but I plan on talking about algae (as in renewable energy) and M.C.C. later today.

At one time "algae" was such a big deal, I actually tagged blogs in which I discussed "algae."It's been a long time, but "algae" is back in the news. LOL. 

What has really got me excited was the 16-page essay on Austin, Texas, in the most recent issue of  The New Yorker. Even by TNY standards, this is a very, very, very long essay, and it's about Texas. In a positive light. It's not a story one would expect in TNY.

It would be nice if all readers could see it but it's behind a paywall. If I were a college professor in urban studies, this one article could easily serve as a one-hour credit course. One could spend a full semester on everything mentioned in the article.

I had never heard of the M.C.C. but wiki provides a summary. It's an absolutely amazing success story, a Reagan initiative. Of the sixteen pages, the author devotes a full page to the M.C.C.

I'll come back to the M.C.C. later perhaps, but the wiki entry pretty much covers it as much as TNY article does. For me, this one article on Austin was worth the annual subscription price, about $14 / month.

The link to TNY Austin article: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/13/the-astonishing-transformation-of-austin. 

Another excerpt:

Austin is the fastest-growing major metro area in America, having expanded by a third in the past ten years. It is already the eleventh-largest city.

New jobs mop up newcomers as fast as they arrive. Every day, the metro area adds three hundred and fifty-five new residents, while two hundred and thirty-eight Austinites depart, many of them squeezed out by high rents and property taxes, or by the disaffection so many of us feel because of the pace of change and the loss of qualities that once defined the city.

Austin is now characterized by stifling traffic and unaffordable restaurants. It was never known as a home for billionaires and celebrities, but in the past few years notable refugees from Silicon Valley, Hollywood, and New York have stampeded into town, with different expectations about what Austin should become—and outsized power to shape the city around their desires. Locals point disdainfully to the Hermès shop and the Soho House on South Congress, formerly the funkiest street in town. Evan Smith, a founder of the Texas Tribune, told me, “Austin now has an upper class.”

Elon Musk is just one of the recent billionaire arrivals hanging around Austin. There were two or three until not long ago; now I hear there are fourteen. Imagine you invite the new neighbors to a pool party and they turn out to be elephants. When they jump in, it changes things.

Of course, such complaints are signposts of a booming economy—the kinds of problems many people elsewhere would love to have. In any city whose identity is changing, it can be hard to avoid the sense that a golden age has slipped away. Newcomers to Austin fall prey to this nostalgia almost instantly—and, with a longtime resident like me, the symptoms can become comically acute. But the feeling is more like watching someone you love become someone you didn’t expect. It doesn’t mean that you’re not still in love—just that complexity has entered the relationship. Austin forty years ago was like a graduate student with modest tastes and few resources; now she’s sporting jewels and flying first class. She’s sophisticated, well travelled, and well connected, and those aren’t necessarily bad things—they’re just disorienting. Nostalgia is a way of remembering when things were simpler; it also makes us forget that simple things can be boring and frustrating. Instead of running on the fumes of memory, I decided to reacquaint myself with the actual Austin I’m living in—a city rapidly transforming into America’s next great metropolis.

Austin’s future was determined in January, 1983, when Admiral Bob Inman, recently retired from the Navy and from serving as the deputy director of the C.I.A., was selected to head a novel consortium called the Microelectronics and Computer Consortium.

Japan dominated the semiconductor-manufacturing industry at the time and had announced an ambitious effort to create computers capable of generating artificial intelligence. The Reagan Administration saw this as a serious threat, and M.C.C. was the response. Twenty of America’s foremost high-tech companies—among them Microsoft, Boeing, G.E., and Lockheed—would share resources to secure America’s hold on the future. The first decision was where to locate this new entity.

I feel strongly that two of the largest bills signed by President Biden last year could have the same effect for no less than half a dozen cities in the US and a dozen exiting companies and who knows how many new companies. 

I was energized by what I saw in Portland, Oregon, last week, and I even think California has the potential to surprise "us" in a very, very positive way.

Annual Angus Bull Sales -- Schaff -- February, 2023

This was done quickly; there may be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you go to the source. Note: Schaff and Ellingson are two different ranchers, both in St Anthony?

Schaff -- 2023:

Link here.

Final "individual lot results" are now posted Ellingson and Schaff:

• Schaff, high-selling bull: $250,000; to a buyer in Florida
• Ellingson, high-selling bull: $110,000; to a buyer in Montana

See this post, 2021. 

And the results for 2022 at this post. 

For 2023, Schaff: registered bulls, average: $15,772 (2023) vs $14,815 last year (2022).

From 2022:

• Schaff, St Anthony, ND: yet to report; sale yesterday;
• last year's record, Schaff: $275,000
• $14,815: average for bulls.
  
• Ellingson Angus, St Anthony, ND, this year:
• looks like the one to beat
• registered bulls, average: $12,407
• top bull: $175,000

One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- February 16, 2023

PPI: numbers look bad. Dow futures down.

Liesman: first look — energy prices up but really hard to explain this “bad” number. Liesman trying to suggest things aren’t that bad but suggests it’s now very slightly more likely 50 basis points next Fed rate increase. 

Me: These numbers will be forgotten by noon but right now, now good. 

Paramount: earnings miss; shares plunge;

• revenue: $8.13 billion vs $8.17 forecast
• EPS: holy mackerel -- 8 cents vs 24 cents forecast
• subscribers, net additions: 9.9 million vs 10 million
• PARA: one of only three companies that BRK increased holdings most recent quarter;
• pre-market: PARA down 7%
• 52-week high: around $38
• pre-market: around $23
• I have no idea what Warren Buffett was thinking.
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars. PARA not even mentioned.
• The Hollywood Reporter.

LPX: up slightly

AAPL: down slightly. Pays dividend today.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter. 

WTI: $78.68.

Natural gas: $2.542.

Friday, February 17, 2023: 43, for the month; 114 for the quarter, 114 for the year
39005, conf, CLR, Rhonda 3-28H,
38426, conf, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-9,

Thursday, February 16, 2023: 42 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 112 for the year
38883, conf, WPX, Palo Pinnto 20-17-8HY,

RBN Energy: the crude oil pipelines to Corpus Christi are filling up. What happens then?

It’s been an awesome run for the Port of Corpus Christi’s crude oil export business, which captured about 60% of total U.S. volumes in 2022, up from only 28% in early 2018. But the rate of increase has slowed way down, even though shipping economics give Corpus a distinct advantage. The problem? Pipeline capacity, or more accurately, a lack thereof. The pipelines from the Permian to Corpus that were the driving force behind the Corpus export success story are filling up. The only questions are, how much time is left before the pipes are truly maxed out and what is likely to be done about it? In today’s RBN blog, we examine the data to see what it reveals about the looming capacity constraints.